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Morning Something for everyone today in the models- The initial pulse of cold from the GH doesnt really reach the UK, on top of that a brief 2-3 day window for something warm !! However the trend back to cold continues this morning post day 7-8 especially GEM ICON ICON particularly builds a huge -AO by day 8/9

Yet again some spicy 12z ensembles coming out.... Now is it finally onto something, or does it still show tenancies for cold bias! I'm hoping there has been some improvement since last winter. Personally I think it's latching onto something, if I recall, it was the GFS that was pointing out one of our hot plumes during the summer by flagging up very warm ensembles a couple of weeks out! A quick glance at the ens show the control was yet again a beauty, and even the mean is beginning to trend down... All in all, me love it long time.

MJO has now moved into phase 2 with the outlook currently taking it into COD within the next week or so although this could change but I will keep monitoring. So we have had phase 8 https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_3c062d439cb841d2eea3ea174256642b.pdf latest GFS run then we have briefly had phase 1 so I am on the lookout for higher pressure to start developing toward Scandi and given current conditions there (snow and temperatures below -20 C in some places, see my posts in the snow and ice thread) IF we could get an easterly flow some wintry weather wouldn't be out of the question (possibly briefly) then phase 2 suggests a Russian high could develop https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_32594828e48d18aa94d6c4b8b63b1f6e.pdf with lower pressure starting to affect the UK. The interesting weather pattern outlook continues.

06Z ICON more aggressive with the cold Fri night- Some wintry potential beginning to align for the end of the week- S

Interesting model viewing today - some significant changes from what was shown over the weekend - back to a much colder theme for the latter part of the month, with a battle taking place between polar air and tropical maritime air. The key difference in the models today is the projected depth and position of the remnants of the split trough anchoring itself to our SW. Yesterday the models were showing a much more robust and rounded feature cutting off the polar air supply to the north quickly and thus ushering in a mild SW wind with heights pumping up from the near continent thanks to the increased pressure gradient. Today the models are showing a much shallower and stretched feature becoming elongated with a much less marked pressure gradient, hence much less in the way of height development to the south, allowing the polar air to have a much easier ride in nosing down on the trough and pushing it quickly aside, giving the northern half of the UK at least a very chilly end to the week - with snow quite possible to modest levels. Thereafter heights are forecast to build through the UK towards the NW, which ties in with what the Ensembles have been showing for quite a while now - giving a chilly crisp and dry end to October - a cold high so lots of frost and possible fog.. Still a chance the models could have it wrong this evening and they revert back to what they were showing over the weekend, but the timeframes are much shorter now, and when you get a very quick about turn of pattern development in the 96-120 hr timeframe, and all models are on the same page, chances of them completely backing away in future runs is quite minimal, not to say a half way house or watered down version can occur. After a predominantly unsettled first two thirds to October, might we end up with a very seasonal dry cold frosty end.. would be nice to see.

Has Jordan just pointed out above, the 6z looks quite interesting! There are some juicy ensembles that either bring some decent cold shots, or show some very cold air, very close to our vicinity! Is it to early to be gerrin excited.... Surely not a 2010 repeat!! Who knows, we just can't rule anything out in the current climate... Just take a look at some of the snow events already hitting parts of the states!! Got a feeling this one could be a decent one..... Surely to god much better than last year's one off snow event in the South. Bring it on weather gods, we await some serious cold this year.

Cold high on EC this evening!! Some lovely dry and hopefully frosty weather to end Oct and early November!!

Yes.. The ens belly dropping.. As they not the pressure rises... And all in the right places.. And the mean looking to take more and more members as we evolve.. As supports get further to grips....with the very likely pattern changes!!!!.. Fun n' games season..."OPEN"!!!!!

A significant drop off expected in the GFS ENS mean for around 29th OCT as they begin to project the high lattitude block- What you will see happen ( assuming all goes to plan ) over the next 48-72 hours the 192 Mean as it traverses towards T120 will develop a more defined high pressure to the North west of the UK introducing those cold / very cold uppers. This process has started today with more CAA heading into Europe & better WAA towards Greenland. - We compare the 192 MEAN 12z ( first ) with the 06z Now await the mean drop for london on 29th...

Big swing to cold in the last 12 hours or so. Certainly widespread frost looks likely for many. So encouraging to see heights so high to our West and North. If the trend is your friend it's all looking good as we head for Winter proper!

Yes there is Matt,a few days ago a lot of the gefs ens members was showing cold only for them to flip to mild ones recently then back to cold again today,lets hope that there is no more yellow or red cards being shown,we just want blue ones tonight's cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb outlook shows there is a strong ridge into Greenland still.

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is definitely going colder from the north, just like the operational...colder than the 0z for sure!

A properly cold airmass even if i suspect snow prospects may not be high. Great charts to see.

Howdy!!= The transient period is well underway.... And the ens..and graphics are of note. Especially the polar/and flow process!.. Some stark eye catching graphics/synoptics as we jog...the begin to run into winter... The alignment that the models are getting a 'pointer' on fill one with great hope. With almost perfect atmospheric evolutionary placings as we get going!!. And with that eye catching developing cold lake of north-eastern pooling perhaps taking a hold just as the north western heat transfer-starts track..... An-early start to the season...with something of note.... Very much gaining!!!= Keep watching!!!!!

Ive dismissed the ECM op for its progressive nature over the top of Greenland ( 168 > onwards ) NB same the other say- where it sweeps the high pressure aside from the west ... ECM mean looks much lower with better pressure over NW greenland, also the 192 mean a lot closer to GFS mean- ironically the swing to cold from ECM mean is almost identical to the GFS swing I posted earlier

Well something has clearly changed in favour of cold this evening cos ecm at 120 hours has now joined the gfs and brings the cold air in!!all of a sudden that mild south west wind that was forecasted has all but vanished for the weekend!!!bring on the frost i say!!

As expected (and with apologies to the 'Hyperbolically Challenged' among us!) the 06Z Operational has fallen off the wagon again! The last thing we need, is another winter of letdowns like last year...Two in a row would be simply too much to bear!

Nice ecm the night dry and cold ecm 168hr below was dead cert 192hr 216hr would have shown a full on Greenland high maybe tomorrow it will..

Latest run from the gfs is certainly a very cold one for the start of November with hard overnight frosts and unusually low daytime maxima but this is the extended range and charts like this churn out most years at the very end of a run so pinch of salt needed but very interesting to look at to say the least.

Ok,a balanced post from me,i would take an Indian summer like scenario as i am fed up of all the rain that we have had,if you look at the NH profiles this hp cell would do some damage to the fledgling pv,the pattern still looks amplified to me even out to day ten the gefs/ecm means but what goes up must come down around the back door,i am not saying that this will happen but one to watch because with an amplified situation like this,anything could happen,it's a very meridian pattern with slow motion hence the uncertainty i mentioned earlier tonight's cpc outlook suggest's a fine spell of weather for the BI.good,but that is some hp cell/block and i see no Atlantic influence from these charts and the NAO/AO show this ok we are still in October and we would like to usher things along to winter but patience is always granted we have a long way to go yet so hold on there my fellow coldies a final note is that i think we are in a better situation than previous years with more of a less solar influence,-qbo trending E though i think later on in the winter,EN SO state remains neutral,SAI(snow advance index) is slightly better this year and the OFI(October fog index),well we have 11 days for some fog to form,is that too much to ask,it has been ages since i have seen some fog any acronyms i have missed

GFS 18z continues where the 12z left off - with even more cold air undercutting & a nudge south Snow possible over North Midlands - @WillinGlossop 18z V 12z

nice mean height anomaly...

12Z ECMWF think it’s going to be Winter at the weekend: ...while the 12Z NAVGEM think it’s going to be Summer... (at least so away from the far North-West) On a personal view, as nice as both scenarios would be, have a feeling the ECMWF will end up being a bit closer to the mark with its chillier outlook (especially with models, such as the GFS, supporting similar ideas).

Definitely more 'cold' members appearing in today's GEFS 12Z ensembles; though, whether it's real or just this year's first Phantom...Who knows? But, given the GFS's well-documented cold bias, I'll no' be getting too excited, just yet.

00z Where did this come from? Friday....!

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I've read musings that it is the extent of snow increase in the last week of October which is the key time period - a rapid advance can result in a strengthened siberian high in the winter.. doesn't necessarily equate to cold in the UK being more likely, but increases the chances. I recall 2012 was the last time a rapid advance occured in a very short space of time in the last week or so of October..

It has indeed frosty the lowest the mean went down to this morning was around 3 it’s now dropped to 0 . And there’s a lot more colder ens appearing now . ECM 00z 1st graph and 12z 2nd graph .

Yes Karl,the HP cell is further west and into Greenland than the uk,hence a cold flow from the N/NW 12z/00z ten day mean.

The temperature contrast for Friday by the GFS really is very impressive as autumn and winter airmasses clash.. A seasonal end to October plus a chilly Halloween and start of November if this gfs run verifies..

Now all of a sudden, there is a distinct split in the GEFS as early as a few days away.

It’s good to be back and hunting

There's strong support for a benign spell of pleasant high pressure with overnight mist / fog.

Winter, please give autumn a go first.

Looks like the 06Z Operational has flipped to the cold end of the ensembles...? Outlier alert!?️ ?️

Jolly red sky this evening.

The trough is further at 102 on the 12z gfs,how many more corrections south is this going to be,snow for the Pennines and N Wales.

I'll just pop this one here - becoming quite consistent over last five runs...

Gfs slowly coming around ecms way of thinking!!could see more upgrades to the cold later and also maybe even a further push south of the cold air at the weekend!!

-8'C uppers into the South East. Would make for a nice and 'seasonal' Bon Fire night.

Good to see the potential so early in the season otherwise.

Big question for me this morning, can we get a block to shut off the Atlantic and retrogress northwards? EC is keen, GFS not so much... A nice block to the North of the UK should open the door to ridding us of the Euro high and potentially cold dry seasonal weather early Nov.

There's plenty of spread, scatter (and, thus, considerable implicit uncertainty!) within today's GEFS 00Z ensembles: The Operational is in a world of its own!

Fourth air frost - scrape scrape. -3C on the car thermometer by Blyth Bridge. End of week may be interesting....?! In Biggar yesterday for the Biggar Little Festival - trip to the gasworks. Loved it.

The EPS also showing strong ridging in the north east Pacific and a cold trough down the western US with knock on effects downstream asanother upper trough tracks into the Atlantic This promotes the subtropical high in the Atlantic as the pattern adjusts east

Check out the ECM Steve nice cold feed establishing. Off to Greenland we go .

The GEFS 0z mean is advertising a generally benign and potentially very mild outlook with air sourced from southern europe with S'ly / SE'ly winds.

This pleases me immensely. Will give my northerlies some added bite!

Focusing on the longer term for a moment gfs definitely having a more unsettled wetter scenario compared with the ECM but the ECM has trended slightly less settled by the end of next week but still brings a pretty warm (for the time of year) southerly wind.. Ecm.. In contrast to the gfs that spins up a nasty low for Friday bringing severe gales to the south with much colder air to the north for Scotland mabye some hill snow? then a trailing weather front linked to another low pressure system starts to pep up and very slowly move across England giving a two day deluge end of next weekend into the following week made possible from the high pressure cell to the north effectively slowing its progress down and a big temperature contrast between Scotland and England keeping the frontal system active throughout.. GFS.. Any further than this the output is quite different with every run interesting that this very wet scenario has been progged by the gfs for a couple days now.. Ofcourse a more settled and less wet scenario is possible too and next weekend may indeed be mostly dry but more runs needed and no point in going into detail after Wednesday for now.