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I know its the day 10 ECM but what a superb blocking chart that is for November- Good night PV

Okay apologise for another quick post, but I just had to share this, the back edge of the storm we just had. This Anvil looks amazing

Would be nice of the control was in control of are weather.

The trend for the ECM to make the GH more pronounced continues with the fabled black hole anomaly developing at day 9 & 10. Europe into the freezer- UK on the periphery but no signs of the GH abating at the end if anything its getting stronger

Well as the short term forecast from the models takes us out of the seemingly endless wet weather that has afflicted most areas for some time (for a while anyway) a look at possibilities in the slightly longer term. First though, a breakthrough in space weather! As of today 74% of days this year had no sunspots. Which beats the last solar minimum (2008 had 73%), see: SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids SPACEWEATHER.COM Why is this relevant, some may ask? Well this lack of solar activity seems to correlate to a more meridional (wiggly) jet stream, promoting blocking, either in areas favourable to UK cold or not. I'm not sure how this stacks up against other things also affecting our weather as we approach winter, e.g. Strat, SSTs, QBO and the rest of it, but around the last solar minimum we had some significant cold spells in winter (before my days commenting on here though!). So worth a look at the situation as a more amplified jet stream takes hold, here T144 for GFS, ECM and GEM: And the jet stream plots for GFS and GEM: My main interest here, is should a block get established, how will it evolve, it should be really interesting to watch the interplay between an amplified tropospheric pattern such as this vis a vis a strengthening stratospheric vortex above, GFS forecast strengthens zonal winds in the strat significantly over same period: Particularly, I'm interested in what the models are showing when we get to what is T144 now, i.e. towards the end of next week. Late Autumn into early Winter looks really interesting to me this year, I'm less interested I guess at the moment in the charts showing immediate cool weather, than I am in those that show interest in the medium term, we will see...

Yet again some juicy ensembles being thrown out from the 12z run... The control run itself was very nice.

So the EC clusters have reached November, and winter fans will enjoy what they're seeing so far - very suggestive of height anomalies to the NW: Looks fairly well balanced between a) solid block towards Greenland b) UK block, probably a frosty one, and c) a stray trough to the SW maintaining a S'ly flow. One milder option, two colder options.

Always possible of course, but one observed reality of recent years has been the propensity for very cold air to break out of the arctic regardless of upper vortex strength. This has tended to be over NAm but I see no reason why disturbed patterns cannot force similar outbreaks elsewhere. My mind has been going back to 2010 when we saw a vortex shard shear off....and then recent years' daft comments in the US about the coming of the polar vortex as very cold air arrives over there. See Chicago. There is no peer reviewed science to back up my observed instincts, but it seems to me that as arctic ice melt causes greater and greater disruption to the formation of the tropospheric vortex the chances of such extreme incidents increases. Dec 10 and Mar 18 saw two extreme examples which impacted the UK, Mar 18 the product of a quite remarkable stratospheric vortex disruption and those charts of easterlies from Siberia to Canada that still confound common sense. I'm yet to get a sense of the coming season really because it is so early - but I don't believe that global weather patterns are going to return to a semblance of predictability. Weather has never been predictable, but in the last 10 years or so it has become extremely unpredictable and even accepting global temperature increase very cold air has, and will continue, to break out. The Greenland High is key for us. We have had a very interesting long lasting -NAO signal this year and should this continue then I am hopeful that a significant event could materialise for the UK. We don't need a long spell - a week or so of genuine cold and snow would keep most southerners from desperation. 2 such episodes would be a bumper crop....

Evening all! Went a wee hike today through the Rosneath Peninsula - taking in the villages of Rosneath, Kilcreggan, Cove and the hills high above! Great views over to the Arrochar Alps and the weather/sunset was perfect! We really are lucky to call Scotland home - most beautiful country in the world! (I’m biased though ) Have a great weekend! ???????

Do not adjust your sets, this is an Ecm 12z indian summer!

A stonking big Greenland high, ultimately the goal is to shift all the cold air westwards, that would be a good starting point as it would colden down the continent with genuinely cold air, that Greenland high like that is November 2010ish - massively anomalous for the time of year.

For those trying to learn..game on for what exactly?

Apart from the risk of rain pushing up from France into southern areas on Monday its looking more settled next week and once any rain clears back south high pressure topples over and if the gfs is correct becoming dominant across all parts in the extended gfs with only unsettled conditions for a short time later next week in Northern parts and coming back at the very end of the run but unreliable time frame. Perhaps fog and frost a frequent visitor instead of the rain.

Yes - beaten to it but ECM says game on again.

Anvil or a cloud imitating one?

Looking at the GEFS 6z there could be an early taste of winter for the far north next Friday with some snow!❄ Certainly some interesting postage stamps!

remaining interesting with an ec46 showing broad higher heights to our nw weeks 3/4 and then weakish scandi 5. Much more pronounced than previous runs which may mean its isolated but the 6/10 day nwp continues to confound expectations

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 950mb winds for the UK for midday With the filling low still dominating proceedings another day of sunshine and heavy showers and prolonged periods of rain courtesy of troughs embedded in the circulation. Currently one of these is occurring over southern/central and eastern England and this will track north east through the early morning whilst at the same time frequent heavy showers track east effecting the south west and Wales through the rest of the day, And later more persistent rain will ingress the NE of Scotland from the North Sea By midnight the low is centred near NW Wales and there are bits and bobs of fronts littered around in close proximity so whilst most of the showers will dissipate in other regions, more persistent rain will still effect regions close to these. to whit, north Wales. N. Ireland, northern England and Scotland On Saturday the filling low has drifted a tad further east so another day of sunshine and with perhaps the more persistent rain over southern Scotland. Quite windy in the north, perhaps reaching gale force over the northern isles Over Saturday and through Sunday the amplification is occurring that has been covered in previous posts and the trough is being shunted south. This results in a progressively much better day all round with just the odd shower but certainly a cooler day, particularly in the north, with temps below average, as the surface wind veers under the influence of the ridge The improvement continues on Monday courtesy of the subtropical high ridging north east across the country but some showery rain may just effect the far south as an occlusion associated with a shallow low drifts quite close The showery rain will continue in the south but remaining fine with light winds elsewhere but another trough has tracked east into the Atlantic and rain from a front associated with this will just impinge on north western regions later as the wind also picks up

It's nothing to do with being grumpy, it's to do with an outright, Daily Express esque post a user made. There's nothing in the model output to suggest significant low-level snow in the UK. It's ramping at it's finest, and we have a thread for it.

Come again, nowt wrong in fantasist hope-casting. Sorry, just a little light humour while we are awaiting Winter

To add to Steve's post - not only is it very good hemispherically and would send the *** through the floor, there would be a realistic chance of some really frigid air actually reaching us in the first half of November, with potential for significant low level snow.

Certainly a lot better than of late

But Trump has scrapped loads of deep water drilling regulations and opened up an Arctic wildlife refuge in Alaska and the Beaufort sea to oil drilling.

I'm thinking, what with all the scatter we're seeing just now, that assessing the way things are going based on the models is, at this time, a fruitless exercise...? Pattern-change alert?

Certainly some strange outputs appearing in the extended at the moment. Last nights EC weekly keeps positive height anomalies broadly to the north of the UK through much of November It'll be interesting to see how any downwelling from the strat during early November impacts this forecast, could potentially be some interest during November.

Just for context re:GloSea, this was the prediction from July for Aug/Sep/Oct. A fairly strong signal for a +NAO over the period. Both Aug and Sep finished with a -NAO overall, and - if the model output is to be believed - possibly Oct will too. I've no idea how winter will pan out, but all LRFs (warm or cold) need to be taken for what they are: experimental attempts at solving a potentially intractable problem.

Things looking much more settled (and mild) now, according to the GFS 00Z Operational; HP dominates the back half of the run: And, for once, the GEFS 00Z ensembles appear to back-up this scenario -- at least until the 06Zs come out?

Some further notes on the QBO that may be of interest (or not of course) Role of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in Coupling Process In the tropical stratosphere, the dominant form of variability is a quasi-periodic (2-3-year) wave-driven descending zonal mean wind reversal, called the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). The period of the QBO at any level varies from 2 to 3 years, and it could probably be predicted for about 1 year. The QBO is observed to affect the global stratospheric circulation. It modulates a variety of tropical and extratropical phenomena including the strength and stability of the wintertime polar vortex, and the distribution of ozone and other gases (Baldwin et al. 2001). Figure 9.5 illustrates the schematic picture of the dynamical overview of the QBO during northern winter (Baldwin et al. 2001). In the tropics, the stratospheric QBO is driven by the upward propagating gravity, inertia gravity, and Kelvin and Rossby gravity waves. In the middle and high latitudes, it is maintained by the planetary-scale waves. The contours in the tropics are similar to the observed wind values when the QBO is easterly. It can be seen that the QBO extends to the mesospheric region and even above 80 km. The QBO is driven by the dissipation of a variety of equatorial waves and gravity waves that are primarily forced by deep cumulus convection in the tropics. The stratospheric QBO effects extend to Earth’s surface during northern midwinter. There is also observational evidence that the QBO modulates the depth of the troposphere in the tropics and subtropics, affecting convection, monsoon circulations, and hurricanes. Although the amplitude of the QBO decreases rapidly away from the equator, observations and theory show that the QBO affects a much larger region of the atmosphere. Through wave coupling, the QBO affects the extratropical stratosphere during the winter season, especially in the northern hemisphere where planetary wave amplitudes are large. These effects also appear in constituents such as ozone. In the high-latitude northern winter, the QBOs modulation of the polar vortex may affect the troposphere through downward penetration. Tropical tropospheric observations show intriguing quasi-biennial signals which may be related to the stratospheric QBO. The QBO has been linked to variability in the upper stratosphere, mesosphere, and even ionospheric F layer (see Fig. 9.5). Source: K. Mohanakumar, "Stratosphere Troposphere Interactions

Net-wx certainly showing some Snow scope Monday for the Cairngorms.

Something certainly worth noting is the ongoing -NAO The models keep trying to remove it however it keeps bouncing back- The models at the start of last week ( both UKMO & GFS ) painted an increased strat > trop coupling feature at the close of October pictured below- However this is the near time reality- Note the anomalous +VE heights in the troposphere.... But the icing on the cake is a November start warming beginning to develop in the models - Remember historical Decembers with peak negative AOs have generally all been driven by a warming in November / December. Examples being 09 / 1981 So watch this space carefully as these would be the ingredients to propose a forecast thats opposite to the Met office / ECM seasonal runs... S

Snow showers for Northern Scotland.

The EC mean is showing quite a signal for northern blocking towards the end of the month so confidence is certainly increasing. A little too early for the UK to really benefit in terms of cold/show however the impact on the vortex could lead to something more interesting down the line, it'd be nice to see charts like this verify and have continued early attacks on the vortex before it even gets to develop fully. I much prefer front loaded winters!

That is just hyperbolic, fantasist hope-casting and should be in the ramps thread.

The Op ends thus: But, as the 12Z ensembles show, there's little support for it -- once past the 27th, the signal's lost in the noise:

The GEFS 12z mean also looks benign longer term, suggests a predominantly quiet / pleasant seasonal pattern, and perhaps very mild further south, relatively cooler further north and a bit more unsettled at times across the far n / nw.

GFS tonight keeps the 'warmth' as it were relatively brief with high pressure building quicker than the morning runs and with a cooler surface air mass potentially.

What a fun week this has been so far, especially yesterday and last night. Started with some real heavy downpours during yesterday Morning with some awesome cloud structures and rotation, looked as though a small funnel was trying to develop but never quite got there. The Afternoon became quiet for a time but still with some great looking cumulus which I could tell even at that point there was really strong shear, it wasn't long before the next wave of showers came in. This wave started around 5pm. I was watching this shower developing and getting stronger and stronger to my South approaching directly overhead. From where I was looking it went visible to no visibility as I could rain had turned torrential getting very close. This shower I got a couple of photos and footage of because it was such a beautiful shower despite no lightning at this point. The winds became very strong and was blowing from directions and I experienced some of the heaviest rain I've seen, including an incredible Rainbow right in front of my eyes. Im pretty confident it was a micro burst. After this it went quite for a few hours before yet another line of showers which some turned in storms edging closer and closer, North West of the island had a fair few decent strikes but was out of my view. It looked this lot wasn't gonna quite do it for my part, was about to go to bed until I heard a big crack of Thunder, went to look and seen another 3 close strikes 2 CG 1 CC with loud Thunder. EDIT: Crazy crazy showers here right we just had a proper decent little storm, 5/6 flashed with lots of loud rumbles! Just had some mad Hail too These photos and videos are from the Evening shower. ( Excuse the talking) video-1571330321.mp4 video-1571330335.mp4

The Met Office receives approx £83m from the Department of Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy annually, along with some funding from other non-public sources. For that we have: How valuable is the Met Office? WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The Latest Public Weather Service Value for Money Review - March 2015

Or, and better still...why isn't a basic understanding of probability taught in schools, as a compulsory subject?

Nowt cold about these charts: Very much like the summer, IMO: -NAO but heat being pumped northwards from the Continent? Has the entire NH weather-pattern ground to a halt?

As the Earth approaches perihelion (in January), the adjusted solar flux is now lower than the observed flux. For example, yesterday's final reading of 66.0 has an adjusted value of 65.5sfu. At perihelion, the adjusted figure will be about 2.2sfu lower than the observed.

Drier for Monday in the south next week but some rain perhaps pushing in Monday night to Tuesday mabye lingering into Wednesday? Arpege.. Icon.. May not be plain sailing into dry weather next week but apart from that a big improvement for most of us.

The GFS indicating much drier/settled conditions than of late as we head into November.

15 days blank, 214 for 2019, 74% Solar flux 66 Thermosphere: 4.38

Wonderful photos on here today. Really enjoyed them! Here's my effort - fungi on a tree stump near me. At least the fungi are enjoying the very wet weather!

Certainly plenty of promising signs so far, see my latest post in the mod thread my attention at the minute is for higher pressure over Greenland then on the lookout for higher pressure to the east possibly over Scandi or Russia Looks like MJO could be heading into phase 2 soon which also continues the theme of higher pressure to the east https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_32594828e48d18aa94d6c4b8b63b1f6e.pdf but I will look to do an update if / when any developments.

A cursory glance at the latest EC46 update for the 7th Nov > 21st Not much to say actually. Vortex over N. Canada with a weak trough down the central Atlantic but with a weak upper flow, particularly in the vicinity of the UK a slack pressure regime would appear quite likely over the UK with transient systems more likely to effect the north west. Temp around average

Lightning hit just above Poole ?️ Was an instant rumble for us.

So nice to feel cold again -3.5C in Braemar this morning!