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These GFS ensembles from the 6z look a little more tastier than not so long back, a fair few scraping the - 5C line. The precipitation lines moving up towards the months end as well..... Dare I say it.... Could there be something a tad wintry!!! Ps.... Sorry if I have not put likes to some of your comments, I have currently reached my limit on how many I can put... So not missing anyone out.... Some great posts today guys...

Just had a butchers at the GEFS 6z mean and it's certainly suggesting an Arctic shot later next week, this period in question could be very interesting indeed, and that includes to the end of october, I honestly think we could see something like late october 2008 when it snowed, even in london..a white Halloween is possible!!...exciting period of model watching to be sure...I know the models are great at pulling the rug from under us when we make predictions but I have a good feeling from a coldie point of view!!!❄❄❄❄❄

There isn't many members left north of the 0c isotherm is there. Two days ago. 850 temps latest from gefs ens today two days ago the trend over the last couple of days (as it stands) has trended to cooler/colder conditions from late next week as you can see above,more and more members are trending colder with quiet a few showing the -5 isotherm or below.

Plenty of interest from the 12z ensembles again folks.... A couple of em hum dingers... I'm feeling the need for an early start this winter.... Last time was 2009.....10 years already! Let's at least hope we have several bites at the cherry.

A couple of interesting-looking scenarios, from today's GFS 00Z: At T+156: And at T+255: And, judging by the relative closeness of the Operational and Control runs, there's a fair chance that both could happen, to some degree: Still too warm for anything widespread in the way of snowfall, but conditions still look good for some beefy convection -- owing to the warm SSTs surrounding the UK?

Not a bad looking GEFS 0z mean for those of us hoping for a very early Arctic shot later next week..which includes me!!❄

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight The rain associated with the frontal system currently crossing the country is orientated west Scotland > north Wales > central southern England at the moment and will continue to track east and clear eastern England by midday. It will linger over eastern Scotland and some more rain may ingress the far south east later as a wave forms on the cold front. Sunny periods behind the rain belt with perhaps some showers in western regions. Once the rain clears it will be a dry and clear night for most with the odd mist/fog patch in the north and east but the showers will become more frequent and heavier in western regions as the Atlantic low drifts closer. The drift east continues tomorrow and with the occlusion and troughs in the circulation the showers will become more widespread, albeit still concentrated in western regions, and there could well be hail and thunder in the mix. By Friday the low is over the country as the subtropical high zones amplify but note the nor'easter tracking north along the eastern seaboard. Thus a day of sunshine and heavy showers, particularly in the south and west ,A not dissimilar day on Saturday as the amplification continues apace and the trough over the eastern seaboard drops into the western Atlantic The pattern continues to evolve to the west on Sunday resulting in a shift of the orientation of the UK trough. Still fairly unsettled with heavy showers but more concentrated to the south, More persistent rain may effect the far north courtesy of another little wave

Pub run T324: Quite something for October!

So hopefully things drying out in a week's or so time and some kind of Arctic blast after that looking likely. Not uncommon in October but hopefully the NH profile won't return to type as we head into D J F,we can live in hope,for once

ECM output for around 9 to 10 days away so likely to change alot but a very interesting and deep low pressure system is shown effecting England and Wales some very windy and wet weather even snow progged for northern parts ofcourse very unlikely to verify but an interesting output to say the least.

As another person has mentioned southeast England may turn wet this evening probably to the southeast of London giving an additional few mm's but the bulk of the rain likely remaining through the channel and Northern France but always some degree of uncertainty with these developing waves as always. Tomorrow looking very unsettled with sunshine yes but also blustery perhaps thundery showers some areas may clock quite a bit of rainfall as these will be pretty frequent in places a few places perhaps remaining mostly dry I'm using the arome but this illustrates how the rest of the UK will be throughout tomorrow Friday looking similar but the focus of heavy showers more and more for southern and western areas there may be more organised bands of rain moving through particularly early Friday. Weekend looking pretty showery but turning drier in the North winds will start to ease and even in the south by Sunday the showers should begin to die away with a decent end to the weekend so not a washout for most but perhaps still very wet for certain regions at times. Improving next week for a time atleast..

Yup and one thing is for certain the blocking around the arctic and hardly any pv at the moment is not normal for the end of october!!could this be the winter we been waiting for!!i damn hope so!!

Just to add in today's update as the trend continues: 16th Oct T168

Strengthening signs of an early onset of winter by late October.

What a spiffing start to November this could be -- possible inversions permitting! But, not to worry, snow lovers...it's only tail-end flapping syndrome? Here today, gone tomorrow!

It's great to see some snow potential for late october from the GEFS today...as Matt said, there are a few hum dingers among the members!❄...my bad, the snow charts are from the 6z but I don't care about that!! just for balance, there's warm potential too

Last ukmo 144hr fits in nicely with ecm run from this morning. The first Northerly blast of the winter would be very likely to happen if the ukmo continued..

Day 10 clusters: Atlantic looking quite blocked.

Current sat

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean certainly indicates an Arctic shot of some description later next week, indeed more so than it did yesterday!

And the control is a screamer,that shortwave at 240hrs is more pronounced N of Iceland than the gfs 18z hence the better northerly outbreak which then leads to this.

Nope - As long as there's no incessant ramping (which is fine in the other thread) then it's all good!

Give it time feb,it's still around day ten> like i said earlier,the op and control have been screaming these charts out for days,2010 was a good signal that the gfs picked up,will this one be the same?

A few runs have suggested the potential for the first proper cold blast of the Autumn, the timeframe at the far end of October is too far away and the approach to setting it up looks very precarious in actually delivering something. The ECM frankly is quite awful in returning very wet conditions to the U.K. at a time where we really don’t need more rain. luckily before then we should see things dry out and we get a few dry days though it might be more of a gloomy set up than sunny.

I'm not so much bothered by what the operational shows, the mean will give a better idea.

Gfs showing a system in the Mediterranean resembling possibly a medicane type system quite a symmetrical looking low pressure area slow moving with a lot of rain wrapped around it.. no other model is showing it to be honest and whether it would be classed as a medicane if it formed like this is another matter for when/if it happens next week. Ensembles for my area Aylesbury shows some rain in the next few days and then a drying trend next week before perhaps turning wetter again towards the end of the time period upper air temperatures look like they will stay around the mean perhaps above for a time then perhaps a signal for below average upper air temperatures later.

Yes and me getting to the time of year. I agree its not as good as previous runs however it wont look like that at 0z all im looking for is the general pattern and models do seem to agree on a more blocked Atlantic going into next week

Explanations or proof please?

So to the pub run, first at T156, ridge of high pressure will be a relief to those who have had incessant rain recently. From then on, well this looks like a flying pig: Well it does to me anyway, coming at you view... you can clearly see its snout, that colder rush becoming more likely?

Long fetch northerly at T240 on the FIM8: Just for fun!

Absolutely, you must think I’m bonkers! ??

Looking much brighter today, and early signs of cooler conditions to end the month. It would be nice to have a chill in the air for Halloween and Fireworks night to make the festivities feel more ‘correct’

13 days blank, 212 for 2019 73% Solar flux 67 Thermosphere: 4.41

indeed some eye candy today. i think one background signal thats been extremely telling is the southern oscillation index/SOI atmosphere very el nino even though neutral enso. hurricane season also churned up the atmosphere what with flatlined solar activity certainly brings a little bit of a 09/10 type set up. of coarse might sound like an evil knievel ramp, and yes things can change, but any form of block out to our west or northwest will aid in further developments especially first part of winter. or could be back end winter like 2008. but the models are gaining momentum on the idea gem also different still possible cold shot. although i tend you wait for the ecm to bring it to the 72hrs point then confidence grows further. we shall have to wait and see, but i remember the gefs ensembles from winter 2010 and the cool down was slow and steady decline. seems to be showing similar in the last few runs gem gfs gefs and ecm to a point. AND THEN YESTERDAYS........

So this is the position by 1800 Monday as the trough is relegated south and a ridge builds north east across the UK Over the next couple of days the Atlantic trough deconstructs as the Bermuda high amplifies into into Greenland and this is the position on Wednesday according to the gfs. Best left here as we noe well into the unreliable zone without the GEFS available

Friday and Saturday has potential for storms.

In my slim experience, the GFS has always had a tendency to throw up those scenarios at the back-end of a run when the polar vortex is forecast to strengthen and trop/strat coupling begins to take place.

A bizarre but very interesting evolution at day ten haven't seen outputs like this in a while.. Colder and also rain seemingly coming from all sorts of directions well I say rain but mabye the magic S word would be used in this such scenario for some areas.

.Another surge of colder air coming down from this trough circled red. this could be a stonker of a run.

Evening everyone,i see the gfs is still at it with forecasting a northerly outbreak later next week so it is consistent,just need the ecm to come on board,if you look at the mean at day ten from both the gfs and ecm they both look broadly similar with the height's pushing up into Greenland so i think the ecm op may come on board tomorrow the latest from cpc days 8-14 show this with height's pushing up into Greenland with trough down into Scandinavia now for the flip of the coin,the NAO/AO was forecast to go +ve positive yesterday,now look at them,if this continues then the Atlantic door may be come ad-jarred or even shut i know i am ramping a little bit but who wouldn't now for the 18z,buckle up.

Looking a bit further ahead, here's the last 5 NH Z500 anomalies for December from the CFS (averaged over the month): Setting aside UK potential, how many scream a raging +AO? None. Hmmm...

Some respite after the weekend from the relentless rain, but thereafter, it is not easy to see the path. Consider the T240 charts from GFS, GEM and ECM 12z: Tropospheric vortex looks in considerable turmoil, but up above it's a different story as the icy whirlwind in the stratosphere really takes hold, getting cold up there, GFS T240: And the forecast is for a considerable strengthening of the vortex now, zonal wind: This disconnect cannot go on for ever, so does the trop fall in line with the strat and we get a horrid wet and windy Atlantic dominated November, or are we headed towards an early warming for the strat, putting the brakes on or more...well we will need to see some pressure put on the strat vortex, GFS T384...??? We will see...

129% or 12.8 tonnes per year..dont forget i live in Canada .so things like renewable's and recycling is not a sophisticated as the UK plus gas and oil is much cheaper here than back home

... and I still remember the bone chilling November of 1985 when this very similar chart: became this: which then turned into this:

My early overview....posted some early ideas elsewhere. For me rpM, pM and at times arctic maritime airmasses. No major HLB blocking having any ‘direct’ lengthy influence.....AZH playing its part if it retracts W/SW enough. In this sort of set up with Northerlies we need a lot of luck for snow of significance to affect the Midlands southwards. (Scotland far north England and NI could do very well). However, I believe there are some very strong energy peaks this winter and the best chance of widespread winter to strike is Dec (potential notable disruption) and same Bee Year into very early Jan.....but we will need a lot of pieces to fall right.....as Roger says track of LPs crucial, and how far south cold air has sunk.....high risk / reward scenario which means it could just be very wet. The theme of N/S split to be more pronounced in second half Jan and Feb generally. Very cold March with HLB Re Dec I hope to see early decent brief shots of winter in Nov, the way it shapes re southward penetration of cold could be a good indicator. BFTP

Yesterday's rainfall totals nowhere near as much as forecasts had suggested. Definitely a bust for most of the Region. Here's the Netweather Extra 24 hour rainfall totals up to midnight, calculated using 1km radar data:

Here's my contribution to the discussion: The following is a preliminary long-range forecast for winter 2019-20, If it seems necessary, I will amend or update this forecast in mid-November. This appears likely to be a season where high energy weather events will be grappling with a fairly robust supply of colder air at high latitudes. Britain and Ireland can expect a very unsettled winter with frequent low pressure systems steered by a strong jet stream running a little south of its average position. This favours a split north-south outcome where the south is often on the milder side of the storm track getting strong southwest winds and rain, while the north is more open to snow, ice and easterly winds. The north-south divide may be enhanced by the likely appearance of strong blocking highs over eastern Scandinavia and western Russia. I don't think these are going to dominate the circulation but they will come into conflict with the zonal regime at times, forcing it to dive southeast around 5-10W and into France and the western Mediterranean. This may be another winter of heavy Alpine snowfalls and frequent severe cold spells in Germany and possibly Belgium and Netherlands into northeast France. Battleground conditions seem likely at times across southeast England into Wales and central to northern Ireland. Frequent snow events may occur in northern and even central England, and southern Scotland, also Northern Ireland and some adjacent parts of the Republic of Ireland. Some heavy precipitation is likely in this scenario, heavy rain in most cases in southern England, especially the southwest, and the southern third of Ireland (Munster and south Leinster). A set-up like this may not remain steady-state, but could fluctuate north-south bringing the milder conditions further north at times, while setting the battleground further south at other times. However, the tendency will be for temperatures to average closer to normal or above in the southwest, and below normal in Scotland. This pattern could evolve into a colder February or even March if the strong jet stream loses energy, then the blocking may be able to assert more control. North America can expect a rather harsh winter in general, with severe cold waves at times, colliding with an active storm track from Texas northeast towards Virginia and southeastern New England. There could therefore be heavier than average snowfalls in the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and inland Mid-Atlantic to northeastern states. A pattern like this would not rule out one or two coastal blizzards in the mix. The west will be dominated by persistent cold high pressure trapped in valleys, and coastal areas will have a fairly average winter with a lot of rain, low cloud and moderate southeast winds. Snow on western mountains will be generally a bit above average but might be twice normal in the southern Rockies and northern Arizona around Flagstaff. Drought will break during the winter for California. This may also be one of those winters where extreme cold moves south from Siberia into China, Korea and Japan.

We ended up with a whole five minutes of heavy rain out of that lot, which broke up more or less as it arrived.

Evening all, just beginning to come one out of summer hibernation. Early days, typically varied forecasting comments...and here are my thoughts to throw into the mix. Over many years we have Identified a number of key drivers that impact the pattern at our latitude but we are yet to comprehend fully how these factors interact. We have seen the power of a vortex collapse, we have felt the effects of a cold American continent feeding a vibrant jet. We have seen low solar winters with more blocking, and we have seen unfavourable Atlantic Ocean temperature profiles impact on pressure patterns and the NAO. We have learned of the GSDM and noted how pulses in atmospheric momentum have the potential to force high latitude blocking, and we have also seen Nina low momentum phases flatten the pattern out. We have seen combinations of these work together and sometimes combinations work against each other. We are watching arctic ice in serious decline with likely impacts filtering through particularly perhaps around Alaska, and we have new theories such as the October snow index arguing for snowfall as a driver of the Siberian High. All fascinating stuff. And our globe is warming, throwing past analogues into disuse. Our computer models try and make sense of all this, and are generally fairly accurate out to 5 days....but many of us are still bruised by the startling December 2012 U-turn and last season we watched medium and long range models fail consistently to pick the pattern as computers and amateurs alike predicted an easterly flow...but it never came. Sea surface temperatures perhaps held the trump card? Which leads me to say this. Long range modelling is generally flawed and anyone worrying about what Glosea shows now should be comforted by the frequency of long range busts. We will have a much better idea of the interrelation of respective drivers in about a month’s time, but right now it is too early to make any useful comments. However we should not stop trying to make sense of the complex array of signals and even though we are unlikely often to predict things accurately there is much value in making the attempt, not least because it promotes interest and in time will grow further our understanding. Despite the failure of vortex disruption to downwell effectively last winter season this remains for me the most impactive of all drivers - and pressure patterns promoting wave 1 or 2 warming will be top of my list to try and spy. Like Steve I have also noted the sustained -NAO and wonder if this swing away from the generally +NAO conditions of the previous 3 years is set to continue. Low solar generally promotes blocking, ENSO neutral is probably not quite ideal but better than strong Nina...and ocean temp profiles have started to look interesting if a Greenland block is your thing. So let the hunt begin...and let’s hope it can be a hunt without too many friendly fire incidents!

Evening all, just popping in while I have a bit of wifi. Currently on a ferry approaching Denmark after a mad time on Iceland. I won't be home for a while yet though as Pt 2 is about to start. This is something that moves very slowly called Skaftafellsjokull The weather on Iceland is a bit like ours except more extreme and changeable. We camped and learnt quickly. After some rain there are lots of these - this is near Djupivogur They do scary mountains that turned wintry rather quickly too - this is Storud (wrong characters on keyboard) HHope to get online again in a week or so. It's all a bit hectic just now. Good to see some wintriness at home!