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Early indications suggest a strong autumnal Strat vortex in the coming weeks. I’d rather see it now than the start of winter. We may have to suffer a wild late autumn but I am cautiously optimistic for mid winter. I suspect that teleconnective conditions, from low solar to neutral to weakly positive ENSO will reflect this though with unprecedented arctic melt long term forecasts will be more unpredictable than ever.

Nice depiction of the low that will dominate this week

My eyes light up when I see Arctic potential whatever the timeframe..and even more when I see snow appearing on the ensembles..in october!!..here's hoping for a looooong winter with plenty more charts like these..white Halloween anyone?!!!!❄❄❄❄❄❄

Could be a nice end of the month. HP centred to our E, mild by day chilly frosty evenings/nights. Have get this LP that’s going to/is controlling the weather out of the way first. Looks promising to me though BFTP

Some rather spiffing GFS ensembles emerging, here are some that could bring an early taste of winter, there are some that would bring an early taste of spring, but I don't like em.... So i won't post em...

GEFS are not without interest for something more in the line with winter charts.

The ext EPS is indicating quite good news this morning/ The UK trough has long been relegated to the Mediterranean and height rises across the board have tended to suppress further vigorous trough development in the Atlantic, much as I suspect the det run was hinting at, Thus a much weaker upper flow over the eastern Atlantic with pressure building over the IK

Here are the daily readings from my local Met Office station at Wattisham from 1st Oct to 06.00 14th Oct. We are currently standing at 80.6mm of rain so far this month compared with the long-term average of 57mm for Wattisham for the entire month. Only one completely dry day so far. Wet, wet, wet. Source: http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03590&ndays=14&ano=2019&mes=10&day=14&hora=06&ord=REV&Send=Send If you want to run the data for your own nearest station, look for it in this list and then click on the station, then enter the number of days you want the report to go back (14 if you do it today) and submit. EDIT: Sorry - use this link if you want to run a report for a station near you: http://www.ogimet.com/gsynres.phtml.en

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 03300 sat image.(the low pressure area east of southern Greenland is going to be the main influence on our weather over the coming week) Y Once yesterday's rain finally cleared it has been a dry night in most areas with the odd mist/fog patch but the two waving fronts (already much discussed) have already brought rain into Ireland and the south east of England The former will bring heavy rain to N, Ireland through this morning whilst the belt of heavy rain associated with the latter will track north through the day ( perhaps the odd rumble in the south east) to be in the border area by dusk. The rain should clear during this evening as the main wave edges into the North Sea, resulting a relatively dry night for most areas with just some showers in western areas. The likelihood of Stratus/mist/fog patches again in many northern, eastern and central areas. These might be a tad slow to clear but generally Tuesday will be not a bad day with sunny intervals with perhaps a few showers in the south west. But the upper low mentioned at the beginning has deepened and become a complex low pressure area dominating the eastern Atlantic and the associated frontal system will bring rain into N. Ireland by early evening As the main low drifts slowly east the frontal system will sweep across the country through Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing rain, with some heavy pulses, to all areas Over Thursday and Friday the now filling low, and the wrap around occlusion, will continue to drift east so a couple of days of sunshine and showers, which could be heavy with thunder in the mix as troughs run around within the circulation and it also will be quite windy

Mmm models playing around with things for the end of the week and into next week - what they all agree on though is a very slow moving trough inching its way over the UK as the week wears on. ECM and UKMO both show heights building in behind the trough and notably to the north, GFS showing the atlantic having an easier time to move back in after a couple of quieter settled days. Next week not looking quite as clear as perhaps first thought. A very plausible set up would be heights ridging through the UK on an east-west axis, before the trough moves back down from the NW, sending heights out west and pulling in a NW, then possible northerly. The other scenario is for heights to orientate more on a SW-NE axis building into the near continent with frontal activity much weaker breaking through splitting the ridge into two parts, sinking SE in one direction and moving west in another. Either way the ridge looks preety weak and unlikely to last that long, based on this evening's models, but also importantly never too far away to enable a different atlantic profile to what we have been accustomed too over recent weeks - the classic westerly, exchanged perhaps for something more meridional.,, with polar air having an easier time to invade perhaps..

A bit more amplification on this run at day ten with more trough disruption west of the BI and with more WAA north toward Svalbard compared to the flatter 12z,also watch for the back door to open up as the Scandi high develops that could produce cooler air round the back(red arrows),one to watch in future runs. yes it's looking like drying up and warming up a tad thank god,but it will be interesting what happens from here, now this looks a bit interesting from Judah Cohan with a HP cell developing over Scandinavia https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1183458842404933634/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1183458842404933634&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fjudah47%2Fstatus%2F1183458842404933634%3Fs%3D19 And chio has just posted recently over on the strat thread.

Thought I would pop in with a wee post as it is sad to see the tumbleweed blowing through here...even @Summer Sun has given up posting the Convective Weather daily outlook! Had some torrential downpours and nice cloudscapes over the past week - also Asperitas clouds last month. (Anyone seen them before?) Now that Summer/thunderstorm season has gone I thought I would look back at my favourite pictures I had taken of convection/thunderstorms from June/July/August - great season up here. And lastly I wanted to take some pictures after the thunderstorm/convection had cleared - which made for some dramatic scenes/sunsets. It really was a glorious Summer for warmth, convection/thunderstorms and skies - one I will never forget! Hopefully next Summer delivers the same (up here) and more thunderstorms for all of us! All the best! David

The GFS 00Z Operational, at least, gives cause for optimism, regarding some much-needed drying-out time...? Though, I'm not sure as to how much support the decent drying-out spell has from the ensembles; they do keep faffing about...? So, hey, ho...it's on to the 06Zs!

The Gfs 0z operational is showing an increasingly blocked late october with scandi height rises, it would actually feel like an Indian summer!

The Santa shaker will be back at the beginning of November Christmas Weather Forecast - White Xmas 2018 WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

First a brief summation from Raymond Pierrehumbert The fact that Earth maintained habitable conditions while Venus succumbed to a runaway greenhouse and got too hot, and Mars lost its atmosphere and got too cold, raises the question of just how narrowly Earth escaped the fate of Mars and Venus. How much could Earth’s orbital distance be changed before it turned into Mars or Venus, and how would the answer to this question change if Earth were more massive (making it easier to hold onto atmosphere) or less massive (making it easier to lose atmosphere)? If Mars were as large as Earth, would it still be habitable today? What if Venus were as small as Mars? Perhaps if the orbits of Mars and Venus were exchanged, our Solar System would have three habitable planets, instead of just one. The range of orbital distances for which a planet retains Earthlike habitability over billions of years is known as the habitable zone. Determining the habitable zone, and how it is affected by planetary size and composition as well as the properties of the parent star, is one of the central problems of planetary climate. But to be more specific regarding your question then yes the earth’s habitability will end when the sun leaves the main sequence and expands into a red giant but that is about four billion years hence. But a habitable crisis could occur before that. In particular, as the sun continues to brighten, at some point the brightness will outstrip the ability of the silicate weathering process to compensate by drawing down CO2. At that point the earth would succumb to a runaway greenhouse, become lethally hot, and lose all its water to space. In short I don't think we need concern ourselves about a runaway greenhouse effect but we should most be very concerned about the way we knowingly slowly destroying our planet

Continuing with the gfs this is the position by midday Saturday with another trough tacking east in the NW Atlantic whilst the subtropical zones amplify encircling our trough mow nestling neatly over the UK Thus another unsettled day of sunshine and showers and quite windy . This is really the beginning of a transition as the Atlantic pattern shifts east over the next couple of days and our trough is shunted south east. Resulting in another unsettled day on Sunday before calmer and drier conditions prevail on Monday as the ridge tales closer order Now the big question. Will the ridge keep the energy crossing the Atlantic at bay? Need to await the GEFS

The past year the met office seem keen to warn days early of storms in south east ramp up the warnings in the morning both for very heavy rain and storms only for it to do a kent clipper. I would say this has happened at least 5 plus times this year with nothing remotely close. They just cover themselves now.

Here's a small sample from the GEFS 6z, as you can see, the mid / longer term mean is still suggesting a change to a more benign anticyclonic spell, at least away from the far NW for a time during late october, there is even potential it could stay fine until the end of the month...so, hopefully some welcome respite from the rain / flooding in the not too distant future!

Quite an active line of storms off western France, drifting NNE, if these continue across NW France and English Channel, wouldn't be surprised if Met O issue upgrade warning for SE England as storms may co-incide with rush hour ... and yes, have to pinch yourself that it's mid October. But it's 25-26C and humid across central France right now, so plenty of fuel

The Gfs 6z operational is trending more settled later this month, firstly from a blocking scandi high / ridge and then a high pressure cell becoming centred over the uk..pleasantly warm surface conditions by day but with some cool nights bringing a risk of mist / fog patches.

Earlier heavy rain has given way to very overcast dull afternoon with constant drizzle - the dullness however is contrasted with the best colours so far of the cherry tree !

The GEFS 0z mean still indicates a more benign pleasantly warm signal for late october with height rises to the east, by no means certain that it will be settled though as there are some cooler unsettled zonal members in that timeframe too but on balance the latest models show it could still be a nice last week or so this month with the probable exception of the far NW .

Not easy to decipher just what the GEFS 12Z ensembles are saying... Other than that the end looks drier than the beginning...?

I am, and despite the promising looking skies earlier all we've had so far is torrential rain and zero in the way of thunder and lightning. My am radio is picking up lots of sferics but absolutely nothing seen or heard here so far.

A fumble?

Tell me about,walked up the west hill Hastings back to my car (nearest free parking in town!), after work and got drenched a decent waterproof on the top half kept me dry but as for the bottom half and my non waterproof shoes, squish squish squish. A lot of standing water on the drive back home, I find it bizarre how folk seem to take no notice of conditions and speed along with little concern about the reduced visibility or increased spray!

Drove down to Newhaven in the end. I was heading towards Eastbourne but the rain was that bad I had to stop. Clearing now, picture doesn’t give it justice - beautiful red!

Unusual for the EC clusters to be even this much of total mess in the D10-D15 period. Little confidence over where we go for the end of the month imo

Most definitely like a summer storm dying a death and taking too much of a rightward turn. Although a deluge will affect much of SE England, I wouldn’t like to be in Hastings right now!

Distant thunder in the channel,getting darker..

A look at the radar over France: Quite something to see a line of storms form stretching virtually the length of the country! I imagine the amber warning is for the event that this strings across one fairly localized part of the SE in the next few hours.

How can Climate Change be properly countered whilst the Top 1% are still able to cling on to all the world's wealth? They'll build themselves biospheres on Mars, before giving the rest of humanity the drippings from their noses...? Part of the solution? Yeah, right! Doffs cap, tugs forelock, genuflects!

brilliant Bright day here today and lighter winds so feeling slightly warmer.

Rare warming over Antarctica reveals power of stratospheric models Improved understanding of conditions in the stratosphere are helping to produce more-accurate short-term climate forecasts. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02985-8?utm_source=twt_nnc&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=naturenews&sf221306965=1

The Netweather Extra models suggesting around an inch of rain for many across the Region (more for some) as the intense area of thundery rain moves north. Meanwhile Arome saying the worst will miss us and go up the North Sea. We'll find out soon! Netwx UKV 20.00 v Arome 23.00: Netwx SR model cum rainfall to 06.00 Tues:

All through history people have said things can't be done. I bet, a few hundred years ago, no one thought diseases could be cured - but a lot have been. I'm pretty sure the first people who identified diseases as being cause by microscopic organisms we're laughed at, ridiculed and called names...Had people protested in favour or vaccination by the injection of substances into people's bodies (before most people understood what it was) most of those protesting would be ridiculed and told to get a job or accused of wanting to harm people - even a few people these days would do that.... People didn't think London's sewers could be built or would solve the problem - they were and they did... Little more than a century ago the idea of humans flying in powered metal vehicles was absurd, the idea we'd be whizzing around the world in our millions would seem like a transportational utopia... All I want is a world where we don't litter. Don't litter the seas with plastic, don't litter the atmosphere with waste gasses. And all I also want is that we treat the world which sustains us with respect. it's our home for heavens sake! It seems that is too much to ask. But it simply isn't and the pressure to change will only increase as the degradation of our planet increases.

Yes it won’t be long lasting, I anticipate a ‘lively’ early Nov and not too mild either BFTP

Amber warning?! We haven’t even had one of those all summer over here, and it’s October!

Still looking better towards month's end, though the GEFS 06Z Control doesn't look so good? Anywho, how's the harvest been? An Apple day keeps the doctor away???

A wet start for southern England yet again.. this is pushing north it seems a bit faster than expected there are various options on the table for how today pans out thunderstorm and intense rainfall wise here's the arpege for example.. Its showing heavy rain coming in but later than what is currently happening and pushes the rain through quite quickly before mid afternoon to the northeast perhaps not much development with this scenario. Arpege.. but on the other hand three models Hirlam, Icon and Arome bring in this rain in roughly the same time as what's currently being shown on rader I personally think these three models have a better handle on this and our all showing the first batch of heavy rain moving north then downpours moving north later today later than the arpege giving a risk of thunder and really wet conditions although the Arome seems to do the same as arpege with the thundery downpours over France pushing them north east quicker. Dwd icon.. Hirlam... Arome.. Arpege though take the worst of any storms to the northeast into the north sea from the far southeast.. Northern Ireland getting some rain from a separate weather system which is currently moving through Ireland. Will be interesting to see how this day pans out better watch the radar closely throughout today!. ?️

I think the issue with these protests, and what will not get people to support it, is that they're stopping people getting to work, going about their daily lives etc. And this isn't just people who are rich, on massive salaries etc, it's a wide range of people - including those on very low wages, who maybe don't get paid if they don't get into work. Or people on tight schedules for things like childcare etc etc etc. The point of a protest is surely to draw attention to the subject being protested about and draw people into the cause, but with this, is that the case? I'm not so sure, most people are just talking about the protest itself, the issues caused by it, and so on. XR have every right to protest and it's a cause worth protesting about but, for me, they have the balance wrong, and are making it too much about them, too much about what they're doing and not enough about the point of it all.

Exactly. We’ve had more than enough rain now and the ground is thoroughly waterlogged. What we need is a drier period, otherwise we might end up with a similar situation to December 2015 - and I’m sure no sane person wants that. This certainly isn’t typical autumn weather unless you live in the Lake District. In Leeds, for example, we don’t exceed 60mm of rain on average for any month of the year - our wettest month is actually August with 58mm - and yet we’ve reached that figure with more than half the month to go - certain people perhaps forget that most of England is actually quite dry, even in autumn.. ..and besides, one of the best aspects of autumn is mellow, cool sunny days with frosty mornings, misty evenings and the sun shimmering on the colourful foliage - surely nobody thinks the current weather is preferable to that?!

Monday morning looks like a fine morning for many areas of the UK. Parts of northern England could wake up to some bright sunshine in the morning, while other places, like southern England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, it remains unsettled for the morning. Southern England could wake up to some showers/rain, and the same goes to Wales and Northern Ireland. Scotland looks dry in the morning although there will be a risk of showers. One or two mist or fog patches are also possible during the morning. As the day progresses, the showers/rain, which started in the south of England in the morning, will gradually spread northwards into the afternoon. Wales also has the chance of catching some rain. This rain could he heavy at times. Northern Ireland will also remain wet during the afternoon, with some heavier bursts possible. The drier places should be around Scotland, where the risk of any rain or showers is low. Some places in Scotland have the chance of catching sunshine all day tomorrow. Into the evening, some heavy rain, which will start from northern France, will move northwards. This rain will be particularly heavy for parts of the south, and the odd lightning strike can't be ruled out too. The MetO have issued a yellow warning of rainfall which could lead to some problems on the roads and could potentially cause flooding in some areas. The heavy and persistent rain will clear away to the north/northeast overnight. Places like the SW/Wales/Northern Ireland also have the risk of catching some rain overnight, although it might not be heavy and persistent. Scotland once again will have the driest of weather into the evening and overnight, with a few areas of cloud possible. Even with Scotland seeing the best of the sunshine on Monday, it will remain chilly. Peak temperatures in the south will range from 9-18c, and in the north it will range from 8-13c. FAX: Jetstream: Sea level pressure: Precipitation: Temperature (max): Precipitation (sref.io): Precipitation (ECMWF model on Windy.com):

Stupidly went out for a another cycle ride today, West St Leonard’s to Bexhill, Norman’s Bay and round to Pevensey castle, all in a westerly-ish direction, given the wind direction it was blinking hard work. On the return leg however it was a piece of cake whizzed along! The seascape was pretty wild, watched some brave and very proficient wind surfers speeding along, quite envious of their abilities. I many moons ago tried wind surfing however I was useless, couldn’t seem to keep the sail upright ! Anyway looks as if we have more rain heading into our region over the week, we will all have evolved webbed feet soon. Finally thanks to all who post frequently on this thread I enjoy reading everyones contributions and photos. Bottoms up for a snowy winter gang! ️

Oh! yes!

Another one for fog-fans? It's sure sayin' something, when the only piece of excitement comes from a fog patch!?️

This guy never moans about the cold, Norwegian roots apparently..