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Another one for fog-fans? It's sure sayin' something, when the only piece of excitement comes from a fog patch!?️

Oh! yes!

The upper air pattern is starting, especially EC-GFS, to show indications of height rises rather than the deep upper trough as the main feature. So the synoptic models showing this type in the 6-10 day period are probably showing the most likely pattern> 500 mb anomaly charts below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV no idea why the NOAA link is showing as it is rather than its 'normal' way, anyway simply click on the www link please

Nice chart for the 23rd: lots of overnight fog (cloud permitting) with some bright, mild afternoons: Good rise in both SLP and T850s, going by the GEFS 00Zs: Too early to be certain, of course, but the model-runs and the background chatter both point toward a respite from all the wind and rain...

Re thunderstorms tomorrow evening - GFS discussed above. This is the ECM take on it ...

Very wet to start the day particularly for places in the west up through the west Midlands the rain finally moves away to the east but only gradually giving England and Wales one more spell of rain. Some rain for northern Ireland too..Rain steadily clears away from all but perhaps southern and Eastern Scotland where it will linger elsewhere sunshine and heavy showers accompanied by a strong wind. Turning drier tonight then the next batch of rain Is beginning to approach from France this could be thundery but more a band of heavy rain which looks to push north through southern central England becoming quite prolonged in places giving perhaps another 10-20mm on top of all the rain already seen another area of rain pushes through Ireland. Tuesday drier before more rain for Wednesday. but after that.. Looks blustery and fairly wet,next week may deliver something much drier.

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 sat image. Apart from the obvious a couple things of interest, The trough over Greenland that is about to play a major role in our weather this week and the trailing front on the sat image which continues to be a nuisance The wave currently forming on the front in the south will deepen and track north east through the day to be 987mb in the North Sea by 1800. The associated area of heavy rain, currently across the south west, south Wales and the midlands, will also track north to effect all areas by same time except the far north of Scotland Behind all of this a slow clearance to sunny intervals and showers, heavy in the south west, Quite windy in some areas The rain will slowly clear Scotland and the north east tonight whilst elsewhere should be clear so a ground frost and fog patches likely in some rural areas, bur further rain will effect the south west/south by dawn As mentioned at the beginning the trailing front continues to be a nuisance and another wave on it tracks north bringing rain to southern and central regions on Monday whilst yet another wave on a front further west will bring some heavy rain to N. Ireland Also note the trough mentioned earlier has now deepened and is an intense surface low south of the Denmark Straits Once any early rain has cleared away Tuesday should not be that bad a day but fronts associated with the low are approaching western Ireland By midday Wednesday the low is 969mb (not as low as Exeter originally had it) and the fronts are traversing the country resulting in a wet and quite windy day As discussed briefly in a post last evening, by now the upper low is starting to dominate the eastern Atlantic and the UK and although Thursday starts fine frontal rain will approach from the west during the afternoon.

Very unlikely to happen, of course, but the GEFS 12Zs provide the first real indication that winter will soon be upon us!

As we look for signs in the operational output rather than just the ensembles that this soggy wet dank affair is about to draw to a close, the closest signal appears to still be at T192, here GEM and GFS 12z: Prefer the GEM if I'm honest. Maybe at last a change to something more settled by beginning of the following week.

Yep a 2010 start to winter would warm the old cockles.

Thought I would pop in with a wee post as it is sad to see the tumbleweed blowing through here...even @Summer Sun has given up posting the Convective Weather daily outlook! Had some torrential downpours and nice cloudscapes over the past week - also Asperitas clouds last month. (Anyone seen them before?) Now that Summer/thunderstorm season has gone I thought I would look back at my favourite pictures I had taken of convection/thunderstorms from June/July/August - great season up here. And lastly I wanted to take some pictures after the thunderstorm/convection had cleared - which made for some dramatic scenes/sunsets. It really was a glorious Summer for warmth, convection/thunderstorms and skies - one I will never forget! Hopefully next Summer delivers the same (up here) and more thunderstorms for all of us! All the best! David

Come to Daddy!

Yesterday's rainfall totals according to the Netweather Extra high res rainfall maps using 1km radar data:

Alot has been spoken about the long range models being poor for cold this year..... But, and its a big but.... Let's take a look at the big freeze of 1987....basically an average winter which Contained one of the most brutal frrezes of the century!! It spanned almost 11 days, with some parts of the UK being buried in up to 6Metre drifts of snow, temps going below - 20C at one point!!! Why do I harp on about this, and just what as it got to do with the coming winter? Even a mild winter can bring a big freeze with big snowfalls, the models at the time of this freeze really had no idea that it was about to hit so hard, most of Europe was mild, and so was the UK leading up to it! Intense cold coming out of Western Russia, with high pressure moving out of Siberia and planting itself over Scandinavia...... And boom.... Look what followed!! If I recall at the time some climate experts said that the freeze was partially down to Global Warming, and to expext many more events like this in the future!!! Well my friends, perhaps we are getting close to another extreme event of this magnitude.. Even in a mild Westerly dominated winter, we can still be hit for 6 with this kind of set up!!! For me huge amounts of Arctic ice melt will only serve to increase the chances, however short there duration maybe..... So let's all salute 1987....and pray for a repeat..... Hopefully this year!!!! Enjoy the rest of your weekends good folk.

Early indications suggest a strong autumnal Strat vortex in the coming weeks. I’d rather see it now than the start of winter. We may have to suffer a wild late autumn but I am cautiously optimistic for mid winter. I suspect that teleconnective conditions, from low solar to neutral to weakly positive ENSO will reflect this though with unprecedented arctic melt long term forecasts will be more unpredictable than ever.

Monday morning looks like a fine morning for many areas of the UK. Parts of northern England could wake up to some bright sunshine in the morning, while other places, like southern England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, it remains unsettled for the morning. Southern England could wake up to some showers/rain, and the same goes to Wales and Northern Ireland. Scotland looks dry in the morning although there will be a risk of showers. One or two mist or fog patches are also possible during the morning. As the day progresses, the showers/rain, which started in the south of England in the morning, will gradually spread northwards into the afternoon. Wales also has the chance of catching some rain. This rain could he heavy at times. Northern Ireland will also remain wet during the afternoon, with some heavier bursts possible. The drier places should be around Scotland, where the risk of any rain or showers is low. Some places in Scotland have the chance of catching sunshine all day tomorrow. Into the evening, some heavy rain, which will start from northern France, will move northwards. This rain will be particularly heavy for parts of the south, and the odd lightning strike can't be ruled out too. The MetO have issued a yellow warning of rainfall which could lead to some problems on the roads and could potentially cause flooding in some areas. The heavy and persistent rain will clear away to the north/northeast overnight. Places like the SW/Wales/Northern Ireland also have the risk of catching some rain overnight, although it might not be heavy and persistent. Scotland once again will have the driest of weather into the evening and overnight, with a few areas of cloud possible. Even with Scotland seeing the best of the sunshine on Monday, it will remain chilly. Peak temperatures in the south will range from 9-18c, and in the north it will range from 8-13c. FAX: Jetstream: Sea level pressure: Precipitation: Temperature (max): Precipitation (sref.io): Precipitation (ECMWF model on Windy.com):

Evening all, The GEFS 12z mean is still on track for a more benign / pleasant last third or quarter of october across most of the uk, I'm sure any respite from all the rain would / will be welcomed by the majority!

Stupidly went out for a another cycle ride today, West St Leonard’s to Bexhill, Norman’s Bay and round to Pevensey castle, all in a westerly-ish direction, given the wind direction it was blinking hard work. On the return leg however it was a piece of cake whizzed along! The seascape was pretty wild, watched some brave and very proficient wind surfers speeding along, quite envious of their abilities. I many moons ago tried wind surfing however I was useless, couldn’t seem to keep the sail upright ! Anyway looks as if we have more rain heading into our region over the week, we will all have evolved webbed feet soon. Finally thanks to all who post frequently on this thread I enjoy reading everyones contributions and photos. Bottoms up for a snowy winter gang! ️

The gem is a splendid run Mike up to 240,dry fine autumn days with some mist and fog about at night,lovely.

What do you expect it’s autumn, we’ve been lucky the past few years escaping with little rain in autumn, for me it’s more exciting than mild dry nothingness as I enjoy watching the radar, hopefully a respite as we enter November

You just know winter is coming. Crazy warmth and endless sunny days over Euroland presently with the UK under weeks of gloom and dampness. Typical Autumn fodder. Think I will pushed to see any snow in these parts for a few more weeks .Think if I had a choice of mild and dry over wet and mild , the former would be my preference but do not look forward to any mild type for the next 5 month. I am purely snow driven. That's why I decided to live one mile in the sky !C

Hello Mark I trust you are well. Been very wet in mid Essex too. I agree about bringing on the snow, that is my type of weather. Make sure your Coop has enough soup in for the Big Freeze some pundits are predicting this winter. To be on the safe side you should also stock up on burgers & steaks for BBQ's. Kind Regards Dave

As @Met4Cast uses in the chart above, there is a significant cold anomaly right in the middle of the Atlantic. So that could help spur the -NAO and a colder winter for the UK. This isn’t the final forecast, this is just the last one I do for the entire globe, hence the global charts. I do a specific final UK/Europe forecast, where hopefully I have a bit more stratospheric guidance. But yes I am banking on a SSW at some point. I do see perhaps a good chance for some strat warming in November/December though. And there’s plenty of factors supporting the potential for a SSW anyways.

Your certainly correct I touched on Mondays system earlier I think it will likely be only a heavy area of rainfall instead of anything electrical but we shall see a rather interesting outlook that's for sure.

Next weekend looking very unsettled and quite windy with low pressure literally parked on top of the UK. According to the ECM mean we should see a gradual improvement into the following week with high pressure building from the South... Temps generally around the average. Until then a fair bit of water to flow under the bridge.... If you pardon the pun.

Nope, but we needed it! Hardly biblical though, let’s face it - we’ll survive

AURORAS--NO SUNSPOTS REQUIRED: Last night, the sun and Moon combined to produce a beautiful scene in Tromsø, Norway. The sun contributed a gust of solar wind, while the Moon added its almost-full luminosity. Markus Varik photographed the result:

Monday night, at the moment, still looks very interesting. The MetO have issued a warning for heavy rain on Monday night. The GFS hourly shows the heavy rain reaching NW France by the afternoon and travelling to parts of S/SW England by the late afternoon. The WRF-GFS on sref.io shows the rain, not too heavy at the time, reaching NW/N France. By the evening, the rain looks like it will start to pick up over the channel and become increasingly heavy. The rain spreads into S England before it travels away to the NE/E. Where the heavy rain does occur, it will cause problems on the roads and could lead to flooding. In terms of lightning strikes, referring to my last post, the risk of lightning will be very low but I think if there will be any lightning strikes, they will be sporadic. If you're under the rain/storm, the temperature would range from 9-13c, so the lightning shouldn't be frequent.

And The albedo effect and global warming https://skepticalscience.com/earth-albedo-effect.htm needless to say this is a very complex area and research is ongoing

The reason that I do not make LRFs is a simple one: Shannon entropy: For each detailed LRF (the really silly ones that include dates and such) there is one, and only one, combination of circumstances/events that'll create the desired 'hit'; the number of 'misses', on the other hand, is astronomical...? Multiply that (already infinitesimal quantity) by the number of individual forecasts made annually, and a reasonable number of years (20?)...and the chance of consistent success is...not very great? So, that's why I cannae be bothered. But, carry on you guys -- and ignore this curmudgeonly old fart! Good luck, All!!!

All links have gone like that now I think it must be some update to the forum that did it You can get a normal link in your post by clicking the bar that pops up as shown below and that will get rid of the big preview box that appears

11.8c to be the 12th 0.1c below the 61 to 90 average 0.2c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

Wintry looking sunrise today with shower clouds highlighted in pink on the horizon. Clear skies here, calm, and 2c with a ground frost. Nice start to an autumn day

Worth noting the strong upper wind over England today And the ecm take on the unsettled weekend

Solar activity and the 6 severe winters of the 20th century (sub 2C for CET) 1916-17 (just before maximum) 1928-29 (just after maximum) 1939-40 1946-47 (just before maximum) 1962-63 1978-79 (approaching maximum) 4 of them occurred within a year either side of solar maximum. None of the other 2 occurred within a year of solar minimum.

The GEFS still indicating losing the East Atlantic trough whilst developing one over Greenland/mid Atlantic whilst initiating height rises over the UK thus portending drier weather with temps perhaps nudging above average, The pattern has a familiar ring about it with the trough edging east against the European ridge

If you think that then you're buying the caricature of the protestors put about by those seeking to denigrate them (see Piers above) and you're demanding that people be perfect. Both are ill advised imo and not how it is. But, what do you suggest? That people don't protest about problems? That people say nothing leaving 'the masses' even more ignorant of what is happening? Doing that just leave those who don't care to carry on even more regardless. Maybe you think there need to be stronger protests, that violence perhaps war is the answer. XR don't think that is the right way forward, and I agree. The world is indeed in a mess - and I can never understand why those pointing that out get attacked. Well, actually, I can understand it because usually they're attacked by those who want them silenced.

One from a couple of pictures posted in the North America thread from Harvey, North Dakota today.

No wonder this front is in no hurry.. It stretches from the Atlantic to Russia Not sure I've ever seen a front that long on a fax chart..

You beat me to it! Thanks @Summer Sun Snow & Ice conditions good for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. MJO largely good for European and UK snowfall, perhaps less so later in winter. Similar for Eastern US and Japan. Oceanic ENSO good for Japan, Southwest US and Eastern US. -AAM good for Europe, Eastern US and Japan, less strong later in winter. Stratospheric conditions favourable for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. Solar minimum favourable for more snowfall for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. Atlantic favourable for a snowy UK winter and colder Europe. QBO favourable for Eastern US, UK and Europe. North Pacific favourable for Eastern US, less so for PNW. All this is good for a snowy winter IMO, contrary to the models (yes I know, bold, but I have the reasoning to back it up :) ).

Ground frost here too this morning, first of the season for me.

Tu quoque, my god it's the greatest way to solve the worlds problems EG: 'People who protest about dangerous road accident blackspots? Get a life and get a job, you use roads too you hypocrites! People who campaigned to ban smoking? Wasters, get a job and, besides, I know some of you used to smoke you hypocrites! People who try to help other people get off alcohol & drugs? But many of you used alcohol & drugs too you hypocrites! People who, hundreds of years ago, wanted us to build sewers? Hypocrites, you chuck sewerage in the streets too!' etc etc etc Another change to my lifestyle? Pointing out tu quoque to people.....

Sorry to hear of your difficulties.

There's something for everyone on the GEFS 12z from late Indian summer to a very early taste of winter. Looking at the mean longer term there's very good support for a more benign spell during late october but more especially across southern uk.

At last,a proper Autumn,long time coming,folk forget in Autumn we do tend to get rain. Loving it Best season of the year by far.

On Sunday morning a band of heavy rain from the south will drift northwards, reaching N Wales/N England by the morning. If you are under this band of rain then expect a really soggy start. The temperatures under the band of rain will be quite mild, and will range from 9-12c. Over in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where the drier places will be, it could be a quite cold start to the morning, with temperatures ranging from 4-8c. It could also be quite foggy and misty in Scotland to start the day. As the day progresses into the afternoon, the heavy rain that was progressing north will start to become more widespread, with the possibility of causing a few problems on the roads if it does become heavy. This rain starts to spread into Wales and Scotland. Northern Ireland on the other hand only has the chance of catching the odd shower, with some sunshine in between these showers. In the late afternoon, parts of SW England could also see the sun popping out. In the evening, the heavy rain should start to clear away, and parts of southern England could see some late sunshine to end the day. Parts of the north including Scotland and northern England will still keep the heavy and persistent rain, with some parts having the chance of it raining all day. The peak temperatures on Sunday should range from 10-18c in the south, and 7-12c in the north. FAX: Precipitation: Jetstream: Sea level pressure: Temperature (max):

Well we have certainly been well-embedded under the rain ribbon last night and today. Wait 'til the one and only snow event of the winter and it will go north or south of us or just break up as it arrives! Esher Common was sticky underfoot with some very large puddles to welcome plenty of dog owners and families out enjoying the rain in wellie boots, the car park was as busy as a summer's day. The ferns are now looking golden more than green as the leaves and conkers cover many of the pathways. We didn't venture to Black Pond as the route gets very pond-like and swampy in this weather. The dog at least then avoids a muddy belly and we don't lose our boots.

Another example of different airmasses. Camborne close to the front with solid cloud all the way up and Valencia just a behind a trough and potentially very unstable and thus heavy showers

Good afternoon peeps How is everyone? Hope you all are doing well. I have not been on here for ages but now my winter chase for snow has started and I have boarded the winter train. its a very wet start here in East London Walthamstow today pouring with rain and I think that's the way the rest of the day is shaping up, autumn has certainly started. By looking at the current modelling and the comments from the more knowledgable, looks as if we have got this pattern for some time, with some signs of the Azores high making a presence at the later stages. I mention the Azores High every summertime fans dream but every cold chasers nightmare in winter depending on where it sits. As many of you, i do hope that we see some sort of pattern movement come November that may set us coldies up well for winter. I must admit I do feel a bit cautious due to the latest long term model predictions I do hope it's not a winter that comes and goes without any show. I will be looking closely at the movement of the Azores Hight as this has been the destroyer of many of our winters. Let's hope some HLB sets up and changes the pattern we don't want to be stuck in. figers crossed THE SEARCH FOR MY WINTER WONDERLAND HAS BEGUN wishig you all all a great day regards

Another thing that must confound LRFs is that, as the AGW-based forcings strengthen, so the others must weaken...Those putting all their eggs in the Solar-minimum basket (in anticipation of a new Little Ice-Age) for instance, may be sorely disappointed? On the other hand, they might not?!