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Showing most liked content on 13/10/19 in all areas

  1. 9 likes
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    Thought I would pop in with a wee post as it is sad to see the tumbleweed blowing through here...even @Summer Sun has given up posting the Convective Weather daily outlook! Had some torrential downpours and nice cloudscapes over the past week - also Asperitas clouds last month. (Anyone seen them before?) Now that Summer/thunderstorm season has gone I thought I would look back at my favourite pictures I had taken of convection/thunderstorms from June/July/August - great season up here. And lastly I wanted to take some pictures after the thunderstorm/convection had cleared - which made for some dramatic scenes/sunsets. It really was a glorious Summer for warmth, convection/thunderstorms and skies - one I will never forget! Hopefully next Summer delivers the same (up here) and more thunderstorms for all of us! All the best! David
  3. 5 likes
    Alot has been spoken about the long range models being poor for cold this year..... But, and its a big but.... Let's take a look at the big freeze of 1987....basically an average winter which Contained one of the most brutal frrezes of the century!! It spanned almost 11 days, with some parts of the UK being buried in up to 6Metre drifts of snow, temps going below - 20C at one point!!! Why do I harp on about this, and just what as it got to do with the coming winter? Even a mild winter can bring a big freeze with big snowfalls, the models at the time of this freeze really had no idea that it was about to hit so hard, most of Europe was mild, and so was the UK leading up to it! Intense cold coming out of Western Russia, with high pressure moving out of Siberia and planting itself over Scandinavia...... And boom.... Look what followed!! If I recall at the time some climate experts said that the freeze was partially down to Global Warming, and to expext many more events like this in the future!!! Well my friends, perhaps we are getting close to another extreme event of this magnitude.. Even in a mild Westerly dominated winter, we can still be hit for 6 with this kind of set up!!! For me huge amounts of Arctic ice melt will only serve to increase the chances, however short there duration maybe..... So let's all salute 1987....and pray for a repeat..... Hopefully this year!!!! Enjoy the rest of your weekends good folk.
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    What do you expect it’s autumn, we’ve been lucky the past few years escaping with little rain in autumn, for me it’s more exciting than mild dry nothingness as I enjoy watching the radar, hopefully a respite as we enter November
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    Monday night, at the moment, still looks very interesting. The MetO have issued a warning for heavy rain on Monday night. The GFS hourly shows the heavy rain reaching NW France by the afternoon and travelling to parts of S/SW England by the late afternoon. The WRF-GFS on sref.io shows the rain, not too heavy at the time, reaching NW/N France. By the evening, the rain looks like it will start to pick up over the channel and become increasingly heavy. The rain spreads into S England before it travels away to the NE/E. Where the heavy rain does occur, it will cause problems on the roads and could lead to flooding. In terms of lightning strikes, referring to my last post, the risk of lightning will be very low but I think if there will be any lightning strikes, they will be sporadic. If you're under the rain/storm, the temperature would range from 9-13c, so the lightning shouldn't be frequent.
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    Wintry looking sunrise today with shower clouds highlighted in pink on the horizon. Clear skies here, calm, and 2c with a ground frost. Nice start to an autumn day
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    The gfs was a cold outlier according to the gefs ens,but has support from the control.
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    It would give us here a period in which to dry-out slightly, but I'll admit to not being much of a fan of the idea of a Bartlett High getting too well-established heading towards winter...
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    The ext EPS is not deviating much from what is has been indicating recently and in the same ball park as NOAA Note there is a sharp break in the medium cloud and blue sky to west down here at the moment
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    Yes Jordan your right , I was getting this mixed up with the all time record for October which was on the 1st at 29c . Can’t believe it’s still raining and looking at the forecast there is plenty more to come , maybe these dried up streams might even start to flow if we get a few more weeks of this .
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    Morning all Thought I was on for a surprise bit of thunder and lighting yesterday afternoon - kicked off briefly to my North West but when it all arrived here it was just torrential rain. Can someone post a picture of the ground frost? Forgot what it looks like on low ground! Would not mind being in Northern Sweden or the South West of France currently - either would be lovely!
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    If the gfs is near the money then Friday looks like being a wet and very windy day (note another trough merging with the main one) and thereafter the trough remains the influential factor over the weekend but by midnight Monday pressure from the subtropical high zones are forcing it south east
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    There's something for everyone on the GEFS 12z from late Indian summer to a very early taste of winter. Looking at the mean longer term there's very good support for a more benign spell during late october but more especially across southern uk.
  14. 2 likes
    At last,a proper Autumn,long time coming,folk forget in Autumn we do tend to get rain. Loving it Best season of the year by far.
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    neutron count 10.2%=high tci=4.40 billion watts
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    This evening's GEFS mean anomalies are pretty much in line with previous discussions so further waffle from me not required
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    After yesterday's constant rain, today is slightly better with a few glimpses of the sun. The temperature is 16ºC, the humidity is at 80% RH and the barometer pressure has slightly risen and is at 1002.1 hPa. Tomorrow morning there is a chance of mist/fog.
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    Sadly not, although Bristol Weather Centre which was still operational then, and not too far from me, recorded 181mm in October 2000, having collected 152mm in September and then 160mm in November. Assuming similar figures would've been the case in North Somerset, my next wettest was November 2012 with 195.2mm Interesting to note that really wet autumns have more commonly led on to chillier winters than not, often due to a southerly tracking jet stream. Knowing our luck that won't apply this year but it's an interesting thought.
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    A mild and cloudy night with a few light showers. Continuous rain, and hill fog, arrived during the early morning and has persisted since. At 0800 g.m.t Temp; 8.9c 24 hr max; 12.8c 24 hr min; 8.3c Overnight min; 8.9c Grass min; 7.7c Rainfall in 24 hrs ending 0800 g.m.t; 2.9 mm Mean wind speed; 8 mph SE Sky obscured by fog Vis; 200 mts Continuous moderate rain.
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    It's what I've got here! Take it!
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    11.1C could still be in with a chance too.
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    This is an emergency, in fact a global catastrophe that supersedes all other previous emergencies ( give up fags and booze lol) the last thing you want now is a pantomime performance performed by the look at me brigade, with their do as I say but not as I do doctrine.
  25. 1 like
    With all the SW winds of late we have claimed back our reputation for dry weather up here in the rain shadow of the mountains to the south and west. The autumn has had more dry days than the summer although it can be very dewy in the mornings when we have little wind and humidities are only low enough in the afternoons to give good soil drying conditions. The local potato farmers are working all hours to lift the crop while ground conditions remain good.and our cattle are still out eating fresh grass
  26. 1 like
    Brilliant K/WEATHER,LASSIE23 and SUMMER SUN ^^^^^^^^, thank you. I'll get those entered up. BTW Callum, what are you trying to do to me, put me out of "Virtual" Business?? If you were a client of Sunderland Bookmakers, a winning 12/1 NAP followed swiftly by a winning 7/1 NAP, and you'd soon have the "dreaded", ASK ALL BETS typed in the Comments Box, against your Account in the Computer!! Do you have a "mole" in the Stables of Mark Johnston and Ralph Beckett, I should know about?? I know you have an Italian Grandmother but if this were to carry on, I might have to send the "boys" round, with the Violin cases!! I will Post up the "Virtual" Returns from this Afternoon's Competition Races plus any "Virtual" Returns, from Category 4 (MID-AUTUMN HANDICAP DOUBLE) and Category 6 (MID AUTUMN 2 YEAR OLD DOUBLE), tomorrow Morning. There were NO "Virtual" Returns for any Entrant from today's Special Concessionary, Reverse and Combination Forecasts, in the 3.30 and 4.10 at Newmarket or the 3.50 at York. Regards, Tom.
  27. 1 like
    By day 9/10 most models showing the Hadley (tropical high pressure) cells across the globe become bloated - as has been the trend over the last 30 years (with blips). Remarkable how much high pressure is signalled in the mid latitudes across the whole planet This was programmed for the UK in late Sept for early October and failed. But it looks to be modelled much more convincingly this time with different models going with it and on a consistent basis When that NOAA model, which Knocker cites, goes with something, it usually proves a good guide to roughly what will happen in the day 10+ range
  28. 1 like
    Although the trough that drops into the NW Atlantic later tonight and intensifies as it slowly tracks south east, is filling west of Ireland by Thursday midday, it is still liable to result in three days of quite unsettle weather for the UK
  29. 1 like
    The GEFS mean anomalies this evening are pretty much as has been indicated recently. A weakening and then elimination of the Iceland trough with a new tough over Greenland This results in a weakening of the upper flow in the eastern Atlantic and a pressure build in the same area. But although to some extent this looks promising the adjustment of the trough east does negate any significant pressure rise and portends a N/S split, This not drastic as pressure is still relatively high
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    Ahh yes definitely quickly and you can blame climate change for that.. Global warming and climate change are about extremes.. Heat, rain, snow, cold.. Gone have the days of an "average summer" and "average winter" The switch from dry was going to happen at some point.. It has been going on for 2 years now.. Just so happens that October 2019 was the time lol! Doesn't mean to say that we won't have a dry winter or spring.. That's the nature of weather.. Who knows! These kinds of trailing front events though are not all that common.. I wonder if we balance extreme heat in summer just gone with a bitter cold winter.. Or is that wishful thinking as the south of the UK slowly inherits a sub tropical climate like France..
  32. 1 like
    I suppose the best reason for not looking forward to winter in my part of the UK is that quite simply. It hardly ever turns up as winter in the genuinely seasonal sense of the word. More often it's just the worst aspects of Autumn extended to six months.
  33. 1 like
    Afternoon all! Nothing much to add except...everyday this week...sunshine and showers...next few days...sunshine and showers...next week sunshine and showers. It does make for a nice cloudscape through the window in black and white. Have a good weekend everyone!
  34. 1 like
    John Hammond's latest monthly outlook More rain for a time John sticks his neck out Drier and quieter early November Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/10/11/john-hammond-will-typhoon-change-uk-weather/
  35. 1 like
    One GFS run at +360hrs, it's got to be nailded on, surely? Meanwhile we have our continental skies back, gorgeous day but that wind has a nibble to it:
  36. 1 like
    This is an interesting article that, I'm afraid, points out that volcanoes produce far less CO2 than human activity. Nor did the two world wars have much effect on the rise in CO2 and the nuclear tests likewise. What does have an effect is that every year human activity adds a few billions of tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere. Each year, every year. Looking at the the carbon cycle what we produce each year is tiny compared to the total of CO2 in the carbon cycle but the point is that every year we add billions of tonnes of CO2 to the carbon cycle. Over the last century that has caused atmosphere CO2 to rise from 280ppm to 410ppm (a huge change to the whole atmosphere) and there really is no other explanation other than that we are responsible.
  37. 1 like
    Light rain my hairy weeble! Soaked! October's been a noggins so far!
  38. 1 like
    There are a lot of reasons. These are my own opinion so if you are a snow/winter fan, please don't take these seriously. Please. I, most of the time, hate winter. Although, on some days, I actually like winter. Here are the reasons. Why I hate winter most of the time: - Because I like summer more than winter. This one doesn't really need an explanation. I prefer it being 25c and raining all day over it being 5c and sunny. I like thunderstorms too. - It gets too dark early. The earliest sunset where I live in winter is at around 3:50, and about 20 minutes later, it's pitch black outside. As I am someone who also loves sport, this is a bad thing as my garden doesn't have lights the size of a lamp post in my backgarden. That means after I get back from school, I only get less than half an hour of kicking a ball around. - It gets quite gloomy. Most winter days are just dark and gloomy. It also most of the time is drizzly and I hate this. Almost every day I go outside my boots literally sink into the wet grass, where at one point in January my whole backyard was flooded a little and I decided to play about. I ended up kicking water than the ball. (I know that's my problem - but still ) - The freezing cold. Honestly. I don't think this one needs an explanation either, once I go outside on a freezing winter day for about ten minutes, I return inside as if both of my hands have just been sawed off. It's the worst feeling. Ever. - The wait until summer. As I'm someone who LOVES thunderstorms, waiting six months for a proper thundery potential is ridiculous. Most of the time I'm impatient too, which makes matters worse. Why I sometimes like winter: - The snow. I'm not a particularly huge snow fan but seeing snow as soon as you wake up and hearing that school has been closed for the day is one of the best feelings ever. If the snow is also quite deep, I usually invite some friends round and get the sledges out. You know what happens next. - Sat by a warm, cosy fire. I usually just light the fire in winter months if I get bored or depressed about storm season, just to get a feeling of the heat in the summer.
  39. 1 like
    Max, we'll be sure to let you and everyone else know as soon as we have either eta's or new charts etc launched
  40. 1 like
    I disagree. Both graphs show the global temperature measurements (in black) and the model runs. And they both show warming up to 1940 and the stabilisation/slight cooling to 1970. The first graph ends at about 2012, and the second at 2005. They both show around 0.5 or 0.6C warming since 1970, and both miss the 0.3C or so jump from the last 5 years. I've added both graphs below with a red line highlighting the parts you say are absent. Note that the scales, both horizontal and vertical in both are different, but that doesn't change the trends,
  41. 1 like
    Evening All- 2019/ 20 Winter is over ! On the back of a record breaking persistent -NAO. So to add some commentary of where we are & indeed where we may end up I have cherry picked out some of the images floating around twitter this last week. The information > Route GLOSEA5 & GFS mid term modelling circa 50-60 days will probably run different parameters to the ECM seasonal however the images that are being used ( as I have over the last month or so ) show the atmosphere top down & how the strat may (or may not ) couple with the troposphere - Whilst these are a 2D image you looking at anomalies that depict the entire polar field where blue is negative heights & red is positive heights. As of today here is the progressive last 4 Months - & the whole year Of note here is of course no cold downwelling & residual warmth remaining in the troposphere linked in with AO - Since that 27 Sept to the updated chart of 07 Oct covering 10 days - Whilst the Stratospheric vortex has ramped up about 7 M/S its not filtering down - However the models *are* forecasting a Strat / Trop coupling in about 3-4 weeks ( This is what @CreweCold is always referring to when he says there no point in getting excited about Oct & even early Nov patterns if the blocking is going to be swpet away- Well we have that sort of transition occurring for the start of Nov- Both the GFS polar cap ( source AER ) & GLOSEA 5 ( source Met office ) show cold downwelling Longer range The Glosea model shows November polar field becoming very positive & that ongoing negative height remaining in situ > The classic positive December AO. ( Remember this models has been fed with Strat data as well NINO / QBO data etc ) So it would appear its going to go pete Tong... Or is it? Important to factor in for the next 6 weeks to observe. * The consistency & accuracy of the GLOSEA model at day 50-60 becomes very low meaning that the initial coupling prediction doesn't preclude persistent cold, indeed if we add the next days run for October 6th ( taken from the same source ) all of a sudden the persistent cold strat has been replaced by warming similar to 2009 Heres 2009 Last solar Min which produced a November warming - & we know how that winter went after that... & for reference here is the Crewe Cold worst case scenario +AO So the next 4-6 weeks will already tell us when we get to second week of Nov where the polar cap will be in terms of overall heights & the predicted modality of the AO for H1 of Winter. ( not withstanding the potential of a later SSW ) - The wild card the NAO. The NAO is usually a couplet of the AO / NAO phase where for winter one follows the other - however in isolation this summer & early autumn the NAO has often run out of sync by staying Negative even though the AO has trended neutral - Late september is a good example. we saw when there was neutral polar heights we had a peak pulse of -NAO, can we sustain this with a fairly supporting tripole all the way through coupling in November ...? Maybe ! Just a footnote new research suggests the SAI wont have the ability to drive the phase of the AO in winter ( especially early ) but rather reinforce a negative one later in winter if the base state was negative in the first place. So there you have it > No ramps & no claims this will be an amazingly cold winter - Just some markers set out ( week 2 & 3 of November ) to flag up what the prospects will be.... Best S
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    I didn't know / hadn't been told you were getting it so wet recently... bummer, especially as we had generally good weather on the windy island. Apart from a few hectic mornings when the winds picked up, backed 180 degrees in a couple of hours and gusted to force 7 while we tried to decamp. The weather gods have an evil sense of humour they reserve for campers. I've settled briefly in central southern Sweden... crikey it's flat here! Name this song: 'Sweden, the only country where the clouds are interesting' and that's one of the reasons I'm here, strange enough. However yesterday there were no clouds and today there was leaden stratus and rain. Tomorrow perhaps? Yesterday I visited Tivedens nationalpark which is a large bit of conifer forest that's escaped exploitation because it's a mess of glacial debris and completely unmanageable. Here's the blaeberry in fine autumn colours: and some upside down trees in a small stream I hope to get out for some more pictures tomorrow, possibly see Hugh's clouds.
  44. 1 like
    Thanks for these @BurntFishTrousers, please keep posting them as long as you want. You could maybe make a gallery album of your best ones - could be a decent collection over time. They are a lot of fun to receive, there's something quite cool about watching them come in real time, and even though each pass is receivable by whoever wants it, the shots you grab are still unique. For me, there's a personal memory to them as well - my dad was quite into his radio stuff, and was going to set the satellite receiving up for himself before he died. Unfortunately, he didn't get the chance but I went through the magazines etc he had on the subject and got the kit to do it myself. It was not only a lot of fun, and useful too for netweather, it was obviously an emotional thing to be able to do. My receiver did unfortunately fry itself several years later though, but this seeing the images again has re-ignited the bug, so maybe I'll look to set it up again later this year when I have a bit of time
  45. 1 like
    The only hatred i would have of Winter is if it was mild,apart from that for me what's not to like!
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    Cool, breezy, sodden underfoot but currently dry with a hint of sunshine. Perfect conditions for some lazy silhouette photography:
  47. 1 like
    The word is spreading: The farmers joining Extinction Rebellion WWW.BBC.CO.UK They want to highlight the fact they are one of the industries worst...
  48. 1 like
    And just for fun, to get the ball rolling, white Christmas and New Year anyone?!
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    Clearly, children are no longer brought-up 'proper': where have all those good old-fashioned 'virtues' (the ones what made Britain great, like knowing-one's-place and subservience) gone to? Everybody knows that adolescents, especially when they be of the female persuasion, should be 'seen and not heard'! A young lassie, who clearly knows more than your average gammon, dares to tell the unvarnished truth, and it's, Good God, no! It just isn't cricket! But, in contrast to some of the more comical claims, it's nowt to do with stereotyping age-groups: Greta might be only sixteen but Sir David certainly isn't...?
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