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Good afternoon peeps How is everyone? Hope you all are doing well. I have not been on here for ages but now my winter chase for snow has started and I have boarded the winter train. its a very wet start here in East London Walthamstow today pouring with rain and I think that's the way the rest of the day is shaping up, autumn has certainly started. By looking at the current modelling and the comments from the more knowledgable, looks as if we have got this pattern for some time, with some signs of the Azores high making a presence at the later stages. I mention the Azores High every summertime fans dream but every cold chasers nightmare in winter depending on where it sits. As many of you, i do hope that we see some sort of pattern movement come November that may set us coldies up well for winter. I must admit I do feel a bit cautious due to the latest long term model predictions I do hope it's not a winter that comes and goes without any show. I will be looking closely at the movement of the Azores Hight as this has been the destroyer of many of our winters. Let's hope some HLB sets up and changes the pattern we don't want to be stuck in. figers crossed THE SEARCH FOR MY WINTER WONDERLAND HAS BEGUN wishig you all all a great day regards

What a thoroughly splendid GFS 06Z at T+288! Whether or not it (or anything like it) verifies is a different matter entirely, of course; but if it does, maxes of around 21C will certainly be possible!

The GEFS 0z mean is trending towards a more benign / pleasant / settled last quarter of october..as per the operational!

As I mentioned several times yesterday, late october could be shaping up to become more benign / settled / blocked / pleasant and the Gfs 0z operational shows exactly that!

Yes Karl, things are indeed looking up! Sort of:

A very wet day then for southern parts rain not really stopping in some places then later today the rain reinvigorates becoming heavy indeed across similar areas to the last 12 hours or so elsewhere today won't be too bad some cloud for the Midlands and Northern Wales but there should be some sunshine for more northern parts bar the odd shower. Rain then sweeps north across most areas tonight lingering in central and Eastern parts not clearing until tomorrow afternoon perhaps quite warm for a time in the far south east but dependent on whether there's more rain here. Then potentially more heavy rain across Central and Eastern parts of England Monday daytime but some uncertainty over how much. Drier elsewhere with showers. The accumulated rainfall from the hirlam shows 25mm quite widely for England and this is on top of what's already fallen but perhaps another 40mm somewhere around London by the time this has all done that's not including Mondays rain. 5 day accumulated rain to Wednesday night from the dwd Icon shows upto 80mm locally for some parts altogether so certainly a very wet few days to come especially in the south and west.. ?️

On Sunday morning a band of heavy rain from the south will drift northwards, reaching N Wales/N England by the morning. If you are under this band of rain then expect a really soggy start. The temperatures under the band of rain will be quite mild, and will range from 9-12c. Over in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where the drier places will be, it could be a quite cold start to the morning, with temperatures ranging from 4-8c. It could also be quite foggy and misty in Scotland to start the day. As the day progresses into the afternoon, the heavy rain that was progressing north will start to become more widespread, with the possibility of causing a few problems on the roads if it does become heavy. This rain starts to spread into Wales and Scotland. Northern Ireland on the other hand only has the chance of catching the odd shower, with some sunshine in between these showers. In the late afternoon, parts of SW England could also see the sun popping out. In the evening, the heavy rain should start to clear away, and parts of southern England could see some late sunshine to end the day. Parts of the north including Scotland and northern England will still keep the heavy and persistent rain, with some parts having the chance of it raining all day. The peak temperatures on Sunday should range from 10-18c in the south, and 7-12c in the north. FAX: Precipitation: Jetstream: Sea level pressure: Temperature (max):

And at long last according to the GFS 12Z operational, we have a build of high pressure to the South, meaning at least a temporary ending of this persistent rain and yuk... Temps look very reasonable in places also... Hopefully time to dry the ground out in time for the first freeze of the season..... Hopefully this is something that begins to show its hand in the coming weeks! Let's face it though, we could do with a drier spell now.

You beat me to it! Thanks @Summer Sun Snow & Ice conditions good for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. MJO largely good for European and UK snowfall, perhaps less so later in winter. Similar for Eastern US and Japan. Oceanic ENSO good for Japan, Southwest US and Eastern US. -AAM good for Europe, Eastern US and Japan, less strong later in winter. Stratospheric conditions favourable for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. Solar minimum favourable for more snowfall for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. Atlantic favourable for a snowy UK winter and colder Europe. QBO favourable for Eastern US, UK and Europe. North Pacific favourable for Eastern US, less so for PNW. All this is good for a snowy winter IMO, contrary to the models (yes I know, bold, but I have the reasoning to back it up :) ).

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean is also showing signs of improvement longer term, especially across southern uk with increasingly pleasant surface conditions....so, overall so far today the longer term signal is for a more benign last quarter of october, at least away from the far n / nw.

Keeping in mind the latter stages of the ecm det run the EPS is certainly weakening the Iceland trough in this period with the subtropical high attempting to ridge north east. Not an earth shattering change at this stage but indicating more of a N/S split But as we head into the ext period this trend continues ending with the trough to the north west and a much weaker upper flow in the eastern Atlantic as pressure rises over the UK, So hopefully much drier for everyone, albeit systems are still likely to track across the north, with temps generally around average

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight The main band of rain associated with the trailing fronts is currently over the south west of England and through the day the fronts will not move a great deal, ergo the south remaining cloudy with rain perhaps with the odd heavier pulse Further north not a bad day with lighter winds but the showers will continue over north west Scotland By now developments to the west are underway (covered in a post last evening) and the fronts start to track north east with the main front developing a wave resulting in the rain belt(s) doing the same and becoming more intense at the same time and by dawn there is heavy rain across Wales and central England The fronts, and wave, continue north east through Sunday as the pattern develops with the persistent rain not really clearing the east coast until late afternoon but more showery rain will effect N. Ireland and other western regions, courtesy of a stray occlusion/ The movement of the trough does drag some warmer air up in the south east By Midday Monday another intense upper low has tracked into the Atlantic via Greenland and the surface low is 979mb south west of Iceland. Meanwhile the UK is pretty much in a holding pattern with a nasty looking feature over the Brest peninsular. A day of showers and sunny intervals The little low over Brest tracks quickly north east over Monday night bring rain to south east England but the mayor development are in the Atlantic where the low deepens rapidly and is 948mb south of Iceland by midday Tuesday with the associated fronts and heavy rain along the west coast of Ireland By Wednesday the low has moved little, nestling as it is between the subtropical high ridges but the fronts continues to track across the country bringing rain to most areas before clearing to the east

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean improves longer term as these charts show as next week's trough gradually fills in-situ and pressure rises further south, at least a north / south split gradually develops...so, following a bit of a lull early next week it becomes more unsettled for a time before some relaxation in conditions, most noticeable further s / se later.

Unfortunately, the GEFS 12Z ensembles do point portend the eventual arrival of some drier weather, though not necessarily toward any specific, lengthy settled spells...So, the most important question remaining is, of course: will it or won't it...snow in January?!

In the Fantasy Island range of the modelling, so caution needed.... but the GFS 12Z tries to send the rain Train off the track as it shows a build of pressure late next week and early into the week after from the South:

GFS showing perhaps a warm spell heading towards the UK soon?

What a dismal day. Grey and wet with not a breath of wind. Just drab. Looking like half to an inch of rain over the next 24 hours as the long trailing front produces a conveyor belt of rain, heaviest overnight tonight. Here's this morning's satellite image and rainfall radar plus Arpege cumulative rainfall forecast to Sunday 13.00:

Monday night is something we should keep an eye out for the far SE of England. There's a small chance of a few thunderstorms that, at the moment, looks like a Kent clipper. I think it will be a Kent clipper, although the GFS seems to disagree. The GFS shows the storms developing in northern/central France mid afternoon and as how things look at the moment, they progress over the channel and make it to the south of Britain. Even if these pulses don't turn out to be thunderstorms, they will produce very heavy rain and could cause problems with flooding. Personally, I don't think any of these thunderstorms will hit the UK. In fact, there probably won't be any storms at all. These storms aren't supported by much CAPE, which is one reason there probably won't be storms. I think Monday will be a very interesting day, both radar watching and forecasting-wise, as when a specific area where these potential storms develop will be crucial, and that the MetO and the BBC are still quite unsure what could happen on this day. As I am not a professional forecaster/meteorologist, it will be no surprise that I won't know what would happen on this day. It's best to keep an eye on the models too, as things will most likely change within the next 24 hours. Just wanted to put this out here

There's something for everyone on the GEFS 12z from late Indian summer to a very early taste of winter. Looking at the mean longer term there's very good support for a more benign spell during late october but more especially across southern uk.

At last,a proper Autumn,long time coming,folk forget in Autumn we do tend to get rain. Loving it Best season of the year by far.

Could be good for the October Fog Index? Better late than never!

It might just do it and shift some milder air northwards with it too..

No wonder this front is in no hurry.. It stretches from the Atlantic to Russia Not sure I've ever seen a front that long on a fax chart..

I sure hope so, Zak. But the GEFS 06Z ensembles don't look too hopeful? Will it firm-up, or will it disappear altogether?

I have to respectfully disagree with you there Ryan. Although it picked up weak blocking to the north. By not picking up on the continual Azores high interference. It missed out on the strongest element affecting our weather in that period. If it can't pick out the strongest element affecting the weather in any given winter period then it has essentially failed to pick up the strongest signal and as such by signalling weak blocking to the north rather than strong Azores high facors it didn't forecast the period correctly even at a broad rush level

Yes, very depressing. The Sahara, our region will never be. If this continues much longer (and signs are there that it might) then flooding will certainly become a worrying issue. Back to Prague today to blue skies and predicted maximum temperatures of 22-24C over the weekend. Lovely

Hello Everybody! My best storm experience was on airplane over Milan, Italy on 07. 08. 2019. We really enjoyef this view. :))

Q3 had a 95% spotless rate with 87/92 days spotless. An exceptionally deep quarter.

I'll have the Indian Summer Jon!

The GEFS mean anomalies this evening are pretty much as has been indicated recently. A weakening and then elimination of the Iceland trough with a new tough over Greenland This results in a weakening of the upper flow in the eastern Atlantic and a pressure build in the same area. But although to some extent this looks promising the adjustment of the trough east does negate any significant pressure rise and portends a N/S split, This not drastic as pressure is still relatively high

D3 is supposed to be the best form

Both the GFS and Euro this morning did indeed build pressure to our south and east at days 9-10 however caution is as ever advised at such range.

Another example of different airmasses. Camborne close to the front with solid cloud all the way up and Valencia just a behind a trough and potentially very unstable and thus heavy showers

That would certainly feel very pleasant indeed after what has and what will have been so much rain before.

The LRFs wouldn’t have been much different even if they had. The 3 month average output may well be ‘zonal’ but that’s not necessarily an accurate forecast of the weather we will experience day to day across that period. Basics really.

A little ironic there about harping on . You could set a watch by your pronouncements of doom. Yes, last year was a one off in terms of a specific forecasting circumstance with the ssw but not a one off in terms of an lrf fail. And you know it. Of course you can say the forecast says zonal so it'll be zonal (as you yourself do a lot) but playing the odds on the UKs default climate is hardly an indication of forecasting expertise. It's predicting a 6 on a trick dice with four 6s. All due respect to Glosea, I'm referring specifically to your statement.

I hope this comes off as i too want drier days as my lawn is looking like a jungle at the moment hiding all the ,and i need to replenish the fence with a lick of paint looking at the latest from cpc there does look like a trough lifting out with gradual heights taking hold later on,lets see what happens.

Anybody effectively writing off winter chances (early or otherwise), on the basis of the joke that is seasonal model output (or on the basis of anything else come to that) on the 11th of October, is doing themselves and their credibility on this forum no favours whatsoever.

The 12z gefs control isn't without interest with a nice Scandi high and a possible undercut to the trough in the Atlantic,all speculative...yes

Heading into the weekend, Saturday looks like a wet, miserable day for some parts of the south. On Saturday morning, parts of the south are already covered in rain, which could get heavy and persistent in some places, and will travel NE through the day. Parts of Wales and Northern England could escape from all the rain, but will wake up to cloudy skies. Northern Ireland and Scotland once again in the morning will be treated to scattered showers, some heavy. In the afternoon, it's literally the same picture, with heavy, persistent rain in the south, cloudy skies in Northern England with the chance of catching an odd shower, and scattered showers in the North. Into the evening and overnight on Saturday, the heavy, persistent rain in the South travels northwards, with the north being lead to a much greater chance of catching heavy rain overnight. Scotland and Northern Ireland once again will be treated to some scattered showers. Peak temperatures in the south will range from 11-14c, and in the north it will range from 7-13c. Temperature (max): FAX: Jetstream: Precipitation (netweather): Precipitation (sref.io):

People keep saying the GLOSEA was completely wrong last winter and it just isnt true. Here was the Nov update A *weak* blocking signal to the north and troughing into eastern europe. Here is what actually happened A *weak* area of blocking to the north and troughing in eastern europe, it did miss the strong azores high coming through spain into the UK, but to say it was completely wrong isnt true. The anomalies for this year are VERY strong for what looks like a strong PV, looking at current modelling our high pressure over Taymyr and northern siberia is being replaced by low pressure, if that hold for the rest of this month that would favour a +ve AO, which could be what the model is reacting too. So, through this month into the all important November, we look for all of the usual stratospheric disturbances that will cause the vortex to weaken and promote blocking as we go into winter. It is simply too early to say what is going to happen in the next month and a half which lays the blocks for early winter at least. In our current QBO state any SSW is more likely to be later than earlier in the winter. So strap in and enjoy the ride Ryan.

Another foul morning with endless rain. Past the ‘balance out’ now, extremely wet around these parts, very concerned for this winter, lots of flooding ahead I imagine.

The ecm continues to shunt the Iceland trough south east in the latter stages of the run. Need to check out the EPS before further comment

For the next five days the European ridge and the trough centred near Iceland remain the dominate features so continuing unsettled But this morning's GEFS mean anomaly in the medium range continues to weaken the Iceland trough with the Atlantic subtropical high taking closer order whilst a new trough arrives in the west. This at least should indicate some drier weather although probably tending to a N.S split

9 days blank, 208 for 2019 73% Solar flux 69 Thermosphere: 4.37

Utterly foul day here and it continues!...dull during the day, rain on and off and quite windy for a spell. Raining tonight...grim!

If you take umbrage with posts, please use the report button rather than dragging it up in here?! Thanks.

Sub tropical storm Melissa off the NE coast of the US

I imagine everyone is familiar with the current analysis so I'll skip any extraneous comment and pop straight to the nitty gritty. A complex trough to the west' a continuation of showers over western Scotland and pulses of rain along the slow moving waving front in the south