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The Gfs 6z operational nicely ties in with my comment above regarding the chances of a mid october cold plunge..as Bruce Forsyth used to say, nice to see you, to see you..nice..and if we play our cards right, similar charts to these might verify!!!❄❄ winter is coming!

Some early thoughts on winter from me. I sense from the number of posts on various threads that interest in the coming winter is higher than normal. I suspect that is because there are a number of factors that might, other things notwithstanding, suggest a greater likelihood of a colder winter - low solar activity, -QBO (although probably not significant until later winter), various reasonings for a weaker polar vortex to begin with e.g. carry over from summer -AO, effect of low sea arctic ice etc. Quite a few posts on what can go wrong as well! A couple of things that caught my interest, sea surface temperatures and the long-range models as of September. SST anomaly first, as of today: Theres been quite a bit of a discussion of the above average SSTs in the North Pacific, and how this relates to the PDO. Well it doesn't really, the PDO is neutral at the moment, but worth looking at the last decade or so anyway: There is certainty an argument that could be made from that for a +PDO favouring a milder winter (13-17) and a -PDO favouring a colder winter (08-12). But that doesn't look very relevant to this year. And the warm waters in the Pacific seem to be subsiding, compare the SST anomaly from a month ago: So I'm not sure how much faith I put in the argument that SSTs in the Pacific will scupper all chances of cold in the UK. I'm actually more concerned about the Atlantic SSTs. Most seasonal models show a gradual resurgence of a cold pool out west, and the Met Office Contingency Planners forecast specifically mentions current sub-surface cool water in this area, expected to manifest itself at the surface in due course - one to watch (I think cool SSTs in this area had a hand in scuppering otherwise reasonable chances of UK cold last year). Moving on to the long range models, the September suite were awful! Or were they? Difficult to tell from a three month average over both uncertainty (considerable at this range) and time variability. In any case it is a good basis to compare improvements in future updates! One thing I noticed around the time that these updates came out last month, is that there were hardly any blocked runs on the monthly CFS charts. That has changed, here's one cherry picked blocked (probably) -AO month from the last 6 runs: z Only a few days until the October GloSea5 output - my bet is for a significant swing to northern blocking, a significant but lesser swing to UK favourable blocking, we will see. Too much uncertainty to attempt any kind of forecast, but whichever way it goes I think we will learn a good deal from this winter and the run up to it, as to ideas on making predictions now with significant changes over the Arctic. Bring it on!

......or perhaps we could say "ICE to see you, to see you ICE". No? I'll get my coat.

Now this is what I call a North / South split!!

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight Now that the remnants of Lorenzo are out of the way the frontal system associated with the deep low in mid Atlantic can make some headway east.So after a dry and relatively clear start in many areas cloud and rain will encroach from the west during the day, The rain is already into north west Scotland and this will spread east with the heavier rain concentrated in the north until the cold front arrives across west Wales and the south west of England by mid afternoon The heavy rain belt continues to track east across the country this evening and overnight but is slowing down as a wave starts to form on the front which is not good news, Meanwhile out in the western Atlantic another deep surface low has developed in the complex upper trough During Sunday the wave grinds to a halt as the UK is perched between the high cell to the NE and the deepening trough in mid Atlantic. Precisely where will determine where the continuous rain will fall and there could well be significant falls in some areas But behind the system it could well be a fairly sunny and pleasant day The front will clear over Sunday night so a better start to the day for most but more fronts associated with the now deep low 958mb south of Iceland will track across the country accompanies by a band of rain and quite strong winds with possibly gales in the NW Over Tuesday the filling low to the north west will continue to influence our weather with the country in a showery brisk westerly regime with some longer periods of rain as the showers coalesce courtesy of the odd trough in the circulation. On Wednesday a not dissimilar scenario with the country still in a brisk westerly and thus more showers with more frontal systems waiting in the wings

Indeed Karl, the ECM ensemble mean does drop that bit lower towards mid month. The op was on the warmer side of the pack... Infact looking at the extended mean to day 14, we have the mean close to 0C for the far North, and around 1.5c for Northern England. Pressure stays steady towards the South... Around 1015mb...

Could be interesting? -7C T850s into Scotland?

ECM 12z: Very unsettled outlook for the UK over the next week and more according to this, but I posted the NH view because it is nonetheless of interest that the high heights to the north somewhere never go away and you could hardly say the vortex is taking early shape. What that might mean for winter remains to be seen - I've posted some early thoughts as to that in the winter speculation thread.

The GEFS 0z mean indicates a generally unsettled outlook, especially further n / nw but further s / se there are some fine intervals / spells, especially from mid month onwards when there is a tendency towards a North / South split..it should also be noted that there is a moderate / high chance of a polar / arctic maritime shot around mid october, especially for the north (scotland).

Evening all, just popping in while I have a bit of wifi. Currently on a ferry approaching Denmark after a mad time on Iceland. I won't be home for a while yet though as Pt 2 is about to start. This is something that moves very slowly called Skaftafellsjokull The weather on Iceland is a bit like ours except more extreme and changeable. We camped and learnt quickly. After some rain there are lots of these - this is near Djupivogur They do scary mountains that turned wintry rather quickly too - this is Storud (wrong characters on keyboard) HHope to get online again in a week or so. It's all a bit hectic just now. Good to see some wintriness at home!

May

It's currently early October, but it feels like December where I am! I decided to bike to school in the morning a few days ago and oh boy, that was a huge mistake, my hands were frozen for like 10 minutes And because it's early October, seeing weather fronts like this lying in the Atlantic is just a typical Autumn weather pattern. Speaking of weather fronts, one of them is going to travel across the UK late at night tonight and bring some heavy rain. When it reaches Norfolk/SE England, it is expected to stall there for a good half a day or so, with the threat of flooding. As for someone who loves summer and thunderstorms, I hate to say this, but winter is coming

A lovely afternoon here reaching 17C in the warm sunshine. Some lovely cloudscapes too. Did anyone else notice that the high cloud was drifting in from the west whilst the lower cumulus were scudding in from a SE'ly direction. Tomorrow morning looks soggy, particularly in the north of the Region with maybe getting on towards an inch of rain, whilst the southern half fares better with negligible amounts.

The only downside in the GEFS 06Z ensembles is that, and by no means for the first time, the Operational loses touch with 'reality', post Day 10! Baby steps, eh? Baby steps?

Things coming along nicely, large expansion in Siberia, widespread snowfall in western Russia / eastern Finland alongside Norway and parts of Sweden.

A rather messy-looking set of GEFS 00Z ensembles, this morning -- temperature-wise especially? And, IMO, the limits of NWP forecasting are clearly there to see?

Nothing particularly surprising about the anomalies this morning The EPS has an amplified Atlantic in the bearer time frame with strong ridging in the NW Atlantic and a trough dropping south over the UK in the east thus remaining unsettled with temps around average with perhaps some marked regional variations. The upper flow becoming flatter across the Atlantic in the ext period Last night's NOAA not adverse to this scenario

I prefer using these ones just focussing in on the lower levels Anyway what you say may be true - I remember way back in the early 2000s when the Stratospheric knowledge was in its infancy the charts posted online were always of warm 80s & cold 90s so of course the average is skewed downwards when just in comparison with the 80s it was probably close to the norm however there was definite movement downwards to lower levels in Oct - Also note the reduction of the 10HPA + 100 HPW zonal wind at the start of oct - I missed the early Dec warming though ! Tonights models continue to toy with height rises over the pole at day 9-10, much to be resolved though - S

Aswell as being very wet for central and particularly Eastern areas of the UK tomorrow it also looks as though as the the frontal system develops a centre of circulation it may turn very windy for east anglia and particularly the far southeast later in the day tomorrow as the low sinks into the near continent something to bare in mind perhaps? Arome.. Arpege..

Purely out of interest. The gfs has a trough developing around the southern tip of Greenland along the NE flank of the resuging subtropical high and along the jet at t156 And it deepens quickly over the next 24 hours to be 976mb in mid Atlantic

Can someone turn the deflector shield down a bit, Captain?

In the latter stages of the run the ecm is not amplifying the subtropical zones anywhere near like the gfs but still unsettled for the UK with a positively tilted trough initially dominating the Atlantic before deconstructing under pressure another trough tracking east

Had a short holiday to the Lake District the last few days and had 1 clear sunny day but the others were like biblical deluges...so that's where all our rain has gone! Lake Windermere looking north to Ambleside with Helvellyn in the back ground.

And just for fun, to get the ball rolling, white Christmas and New Year anyone?!

Media storm

Nobody has mentioned 'severe' frost(apart from you lol) but none the less there was something frozen and cold to the touch on cars Wednesday morning!

Remember last winter and most the models were predicting HLB for D J and F and looked how that turned out,nearly the complete opposite lol.Dont think these seasonal models are even worth looking at,nevermind using them to forecasts seasons ahead

I think we must have had a shared hallucination mate, I had hard white stuff on my car windscreen this week that I had to scrape off. Was yours cold? It was almost ice like

So that hard white stuff on my car windscreen and my neighbours windscreen this week was a figment of our imagination as we scrapped it off this week ? Wipers didn't do it,hard frost not really but cold enough to scrape,again you read into my post something that's not there....I'm not the silly one here

Hahaha yes it had to be done! Never see any weather related pictures from Scotland on that page - everywhere else in Europe has loads. Had a couple in Summer as well - we have great/exciting weather pictures from Scotland all year round so it’s nice to see us get noticed! Well I’m off to get the canoe out as it’s going to be a total washout here all weekend! Have a good weekend everyone and @Hairy Celt those pictures are incredible!

Believer in what? Mountains of scientific evidence and expert consensus?

The rainfall in the north and east in the next 48 hours still dependent on the precise movement of the frontal wave

Because it was 1978 when regular measurements using a consistent series of sensors began. Specifically, the special sensor microwave imager that was part of the defence meteorological satellite program. Allows for apples to apples comparisons

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids SPACEWEATHER.COM Spotless Days Current Stretch: 2 days 2019 total: 201 days (72%) Thermosphere Climate Index today: 4.80x1010 W Cold The Radio Sun 10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

According to the gfs the key feature of the 5-10 period is the amplification of the subtropical high zones in eastern Europe and the NW Atlantic accompanied by the usual WAA. which results in the eastern Atlantic and northern Europe being under the umbrella of a trough. Ergo continuing unsettled for the UK , perhaps tending towards a N/S split A couple of spot charts

September's NAO came in (marginally) negative at -0.16 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/ For what it's worth, that's 5 months in a row of -NAO, in contrast to just 2 of the previous 19. October looks like it could be negative too, although still early and I've probably just jinxed it. We had 16 (count 'em) months in a row of -NAO around the 2009/2010 period. Solar signal or just a stochastic process?

I'm no expert but the movement of the front slows down, courtesy of the block to the east and a wave forming on the front. This pumps up the 'action' on the front illustrated by the vorticity charts because of this there could be some significant rain totals in some areas on already saturated ground Agh, posted at the same time as the above so just ignore

Well, intensity isn't the only factor at play, the front becomes occluded as the cold front catches up with the warm front and slows down somewhat. It then starts to slightly pivot, so many areas stay under the rain for quite some time - 12 hours or so. Increased vertical vorticity will aid rainfall becoming heavier, though.

As it’s the start of October nobody has a clue what the winter will be like, it’s just guessing or hope casting at this stage. Maybe by the end of November we will have a better idea of what’s going on. But then again......

Oh dear.... Suspect somebody doesn't like the truth. Niche? South Yorkshire to Kent...that's some niche spots you refer to Oh again you've done it, Severe? Not in my post,just your imagination.

This hallucination must be more wide spread than certain folk realise then! It was cold and surprisingly ice like....

Nice glad I didn’t rain all the time ! Literally on the M6 now heading to Keswick for a 2 day short staycation ... not raining but quite overcast just going over Shap !

Can't help but wish that would have been snow, hopefully similar situations arise this winter @Mr Frost making it onto the severe weather EU twitter / Facebook page

Bullocks ??

Don't look like much rain aroiund.............at the moment but it is supposed to intensify quite a bit

That is out of date now really, there have been lots more runs since then its just we havent seen them - the next one we see is due out at the end of next week.

Given the way long range models performed last winter, I'm encouraged that they're showing a mild outlook this time.

That's very interesting. Thank you for that info. I for one am a big believer in solar minimum affecting our winter weather - in a nice cold, snowy way :)

we are all mad thats why we ended up in here.

Hud ma first frost, so time tae check in. It's gonnae be a cauld yin a reckon. Woman achieves 120 consecutive months of skiing WWW.BBC.CO.UK Helen Rennie managed to find enough snow to ski on every month in Scotland for the past 10 years.