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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/10/19 in all areas

  1. 12 points
    And just for fun, to get the ball rolling, white Christmas and New Year anyone?!
  2. 12 points
    It may be weather, it may be climate but it's definitely not model discussion! I've just started a winter speculation and chat thread so this sort of stuff can continue in there.
  3. 11 points
    October 81 was very blocked due to the downwelling of a very very warm stratosphere - this has enough impact to impact the troposphere into Dec - ( note the red block mid Dec )
  4. 10 points
    I dunno MQ, by that time I've tuned him oot. ? Forgot to post this pic, taken the other day from my back door. It doesny look like this today..
  5. 9 points
    There's quite a bit of plume / warm / very warm potential longer term within the GEFS 0z..quite impressive actually with parts of the south potentially reaching 24c 75f in mid / late october.
  6. 8 points
    Evening all, just popping in while I have a bit of wifi. Currently on a ferry approaching Denmark after a mad time on Iceland. I won't be home for a while yet though as Pt 2 is about to start. This is something that moves very slowly called Skaftafellsjokull The weather on Iceland is a bit like ours except more extreme and changeable. We camped and learnt quickly. After some rain there are lots of these - this is near Djupivogur They do scary mountains that turned wintry rather quickly too - this is Storud (wrong characters on keyboard) HHope to get online again in a week or so. It's all a bit hectic just now. Good to see some wintriness at home!
  7. 8 points
    A nice end to the GFS 06Z...if only it would verify? GEFS 06Z ensembles:
  8. 8 points
    I have to disagree feb, no one hasever shown any statistical correlation between October and subsequent winters. All that fits is that it gets colder from1 October into meteorological winter. That work/research applies to the main weather centres or any amateur work that has been done down the years
  9. 7 points
    Hud ma first frost, so time tae check in. It's gonnae be a cauld yin a reckon. Woman achieves 120 consecutive months of skiing WWW.BBC.CO.UK Helen Rennie managed to find enough snow to ski on every month in Scotland for the past 10 years.
  10. 7 points
    Well, here's an energy-saving pattern: However, as the 00Z GEFS ensembles show...like the cold ones before it, it almost certainly won't happen. PS: Agree 100% with the entropic/chaotic/thermodynamic arguments posted above.
  11. 6 points
    And the GEFS 12Z ensembles indicate a steady decline in temperatures. But that's hardly surprising, given the time of year! I bet I'm nae the only one becoming impatient for winter to get underway...??️
  12. 6 points
    I'm not sure I follow what you mean. The original post suggested a link between 'weather' in October to 'weather' the following winter. I responded that there was, as yet, no reliable link. weather not climate.
  13. 6 points
    The problem with this theory is that the pressure pattern at any given point in October is subject to so many thousands of interactions and influences from diverse meteorological and atmospheric conditions that it is diluted to no more than random 'noise' after a couple of weeks and can therefore no longer be said to be influential. Enough from me as this is drifting a long way off topic.
  14. 5 points
    I prefer using these ones just focussing in on the lower levels Anyway what you say may be true - I remember way back in the early 2000s when the Stratospheric knowledge was in its infancy the charts posted online were always of warm 80s & cold 90s so of course the average is skewed downwards when just in comparison with the 80s it was probably close to the norm however there was definite movement downwards to lower levels in Oct - Also note the reduction of the 10HPA + 100 HPW zonal wind at the start of oct - I missed the early Dec warming though ! Tonights models continue to toy with height rises over the pole at day 9-10, much to be resolved though - ? S
  15. 5 points
    The Gfs 12z operational opens the door to the Arctic during mid month, Scotland bears the brunt of it with widespread frosts and some ice / snow but it does turn colder everywhere for a time. Looking at next week it's an unsettled spell with wet and windy weather at times, the longer range GEFS 12z mean also indicates unsettled / cyclonic with a mixture of milder / cooler members and a few following the operational with polar / arctic maritime incursions, there isn't much indication of anything settled for any length of time, just transient in nature and mainly across the S / SE. I should also mention this sunday, it's looking like a very wet day for the east with local flooding following all the recent very wet weather..there are yellow be aware warnings already issued for that.
  16. 5 points
    Look at the structure of this cell, over Surrey at around 17:45 this afternoon. Nice anvil and what looks like a mesocylone with a tail cloud (bloody tree blocked part of the view).
  17. 5 points
    Took these photos towards north Cheshire about 1.55pm this afternoon. Not sure what to make of it but it caught my attention as it waxed and waned
  18. 5 points
    September's NAO came in (marginally) negative at -0.16 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/ For what it's worth, that's 5 months in a row of -NAO, in contrast to just 2 of the previous 19. October looks like it could be negative too, although still early and I've probably just jinxed it. We had 16 (count 'em) months in a row of -NAO around the 2009/2010 period. Solar signal or just a stochastic process?
  19. 5 points
    Back on topic Sunday looks very wet in some areas particularly the central spine of the country into Eastern England some places may see 40-50mm of rain from the band of rain that sort of gets stuck in Eastern areas.. Something to keep an eye on perhaps? Most of that rain would still be pretty useful in East anglia but not for northern England as this chart and the arpege are alluding to being very wet. Details will change as always. ?
  20. 5 points
    Refreshed the page and it's been updated already, back to spotless! https://spaceweather.com Spotless Days Current Stretch: 1 day 2019 total: 200 days (72%) Thermosphere Climate Index today: 4.79x1010 W Cold The Radio Sun 10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu
  21. 5 points
    All this talk of cold has got me watching Rocky 4...lovely siberian blizzards... The ECM op looks pretty chilly come day 10,and the ensembles and mean are most definitely showing a cooling off and a general dropping away... Long may it continue, the normal caveat applies.... Namely, its still very early to be getting to excited.... Still good to see all the same, here's hoping to something a bit special this year!
  22. 5 points
    No matter what anyone says, a stonking big block to the NW is not the default setting for mid October. And follows the trend of the 0z EPS.
  23. 4 points
    Had a short holiday to the Lake District the last few days and had 1 clear sunny day but the others were like biblical deluges...so that's where all our rain has gone! Lake Windermere looking north to Ambleside with Helvellyn in the back ground.
  24. 4 points
    This is weather vs climate. If looking only at UK weather or climate maybe, but obviously there have been many studies which have demonstrated statistical correlations between October circulation patterns and the following winter.
  25. 4 points
    Yes Karl, that was a concern for me moving towards mid month!! Most of the ensembles are on the warmer side of things!! Not to worry, its still only early Autumn. Anyhow, here's one from p6.... Something a little colder.... Straw clutching, very much so... But I like it..
  26. 4 points
    Yes exactly. And I strongly recommend that everyone on this forum with a genuine interest in how weather prediction works should read up on chaos theory and weather. That and have an understanding of the second law of thermodynamics. Two sources here to get you started. Apologies for slightly off topic mods. https://www.encyclopedia.com/environment/energy-government-and-defense-magazines/chaos-theory-and-meteorological-predictions
  27. 4 points
    Still a disappointing outlook in the next 7-10 days - generally unsettled. However... By day 10 onwards the main core of the PV is predicted to migrate away from it's usual home over Greenland and to our NW, and the AO/NAO is predicted to tank sharply negative...perhaps a small chance of something slightly wintry in places into the last 10 days of the month? Very early in the season, but it's happened before.
  28. 4 points
    A sensible comment as what may happen in the coming winter has nothing to do with what happens in October.
  29. 3 points
    At last a proper Autumn....the outlook is very seasonal. Crisp mornings,Atlantic showing it's presence,colours really developing in the countryside. Interesting weather at last,beats the tedium of Summer hands down in my opinion. Many will disagree though i feel!?
  30. 3 points
    On a positive note the ECM again ending with Height rises over Greenland! Deep low pressure to our NW and perhaps a colder shot of air as the low moves Eastwards!
  31. 3 points
    Now that Lorenzo has faded away, a brief ridge on Saturday before fronts associated with deep Atlantic trough, which may well have helped us dodge a bullet, will traverse the country Saturday night. But note the new trough that has entered the fray, courtesy of strong ridging over NE North America, and the surface low undergoes explosive cyclogenesis near the left exit of a very strong jet, due essentially to the strength of the subtropical ridge in the vicinity of the the UK. All of this results in a couple of wet and windy days Mon/Tues The latter half of the run is dominated by the aforementioned height rises in NE North America and a trough in the eastern Atlantic thus continuing unsettled with temps a tad below average
  32. 3 points
    Wet on Sunday would seem to be the view supported by all ensemble members in addition to the control and operational runs.
  33. 3 points
    Not much point reading, as its just pseudo-scientific ? The Ural blocking in November is definitely interesting to watch, we had an anomaly there last year, which helped disrupt the PV, not quite giving the cold here that a lot of people wanted, but close and then eventually culminating in the SSW. Everything is linked and the atmosphere gives us clues, it's never as simple as A+B=C which i think people keep getting confused with
  34. 3 points
    Yes, the Kryjov paper, was going to repost this link. At the time back in 2015, way up this thread, it was paywalled. By using 500mb data at an arbitrary random location on the Taymyr peninsula it was possible to get an October geopotential - winter AO correlation of 0.62 over the 1976-2013 period, not quite the 0.9 touted for the mythical OPI but promising nonetheless. The method used in the paper above was alluded to in a follow up which shows it as calculated slightly differently - area averaged and at different altitude. Importantly their results appeared to be stationary over time which gives some hope that it may retain its utility. The main raft of papers commonly refer to Arctic sea ice or northern hemisphere snow cover, either individually or in combination with various other indices eg QBO etc Work such as the Cohen SAI have famously shown strong links to winter AO though have since been questioned as non-stationary - the correlations may be more an artefact of a causative link rather than the cause itself. Also the proposed trop-strat-trop pathways have been difficult to reproduce in modeling studies. To single out one author as a starting point, the works of Yannick Peings are a treasure trove - Yannick Peings - Google Scholar Citations SCHOLAR.GOOGLE.CO.UK His work on Ural blocking for example demonstrates that as well as generating the wave driven strat response, also leads to the Kara sea ice and Siberian snow cover which are suggested as possible causative factors by others.
  35. 3 points
    He's made himself vulnerable by putting it on social media. I understand it was a joke between them, but look.. Considering the amount of abuse black players have endured on social media over the last couple of months it was a really daft thing to do and unfortunately the FA have probably viewed it that way so he has to take the punishment. We all know how vile social media can be, people from all walks of life - closed minded, extremist views, racists, sexist etc...
  36. 3 points
    we are all mad thats why we ended up in here.?
  37. 3 points
    4 days in and no fog yet?
  38. 3 points
    That maybe so, inheritus; it maybe not...but why has no-one yet been able to convert those correlations into a useful weather-forecasting technique?
  39. 3 points
    Wintry scene from 10th January 1979
  40. 3 points
    10.0c to be the 3rd 2.2c below the 61 to 90 average 2.4c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd
  41. 3 points
    Mind you, for all CreweCold's usual relish in being a harbinger of mild doom, long range models in October are still not quite worth slashing your wrists about. They're not in "t!t$ on a bull" territory in terms of reliability anymore, but... Well you can fill in the gaps. They're more of a watching brief
  42. 3 points
    Thanks for Posting that Zak M. my Italian Mother was born about 25 Miles North of Vesuvius, in a town called Caserta. I've seen some real "humdingers" on visits to the area, at this time of Year. Cooler air starts to encroach the Mediterranean Basin, during the transition from the long Mediterranean Summer into Autumn. When I was around 7, I actually experienced an Earth Tremor whilst visiting my Uncle at Castellammare di Stabia, which is around 15 Miles South of Mt.Vesuvius. My Uncle took myself, Mother and Sister up onto the local Mountain, fearing a Tsunami as Castellammare has a Coastal location. When we returned back down to Castellammare, a violent t/storm (unrelated I know) broke over the town and turned the local Roads, into Rivers. Regards, Tom.
  43. 3 points
    Ha! What's he going to be like if/when Winter actually arrives!
  44. 3 points
    ex-Lorenzo looks to have died a quick death. If anything the low pressure behind it looks more potent.
  45. 3 points
    I disagree that what happens in October doesn't affect the winter, it must do, just that a cold October doesn't mean a cold winter, thats all, it must affect it in some way. On the first of october, the pressure pattern is at a given point and then evolves due to the laws of physics, ie- Thermodynamics, Coriolis effect, Solar output etc, yes it isn't as predictable as we would like at that range but it is wrong to say it has no effect.
  46. 2 points
    That is out of date now really, there have been lots more runs since then its just we havent seen them - the next one we see is due out at the end of next week.
  47. 2 points
    Fair enough. And i guess the players should know better. Just IMO i think its a little harsh to compare his actions to that of Suarez
  48. 2 points
    GFS Operational is on the less-pleasant side of everything, tonight: I don't know about the GEFS, feb, but let me know when snow starts to appear on the shed roof!?️
  49. 2 points
    i see the rutting has started early this year in the MOD thread...
  50. 2 points
    The forthcoming winter review 19/20 will review this- It has lasted since April 26th this year...
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