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  1. 12 likes
    And just for fun, to get the ball rolling, white Christmas and New Year anyone?!
  2. 11 likes
    October 81 was very blocked due to the downwelling of a very very warm stratosphere - this has enough impact to impact the troposphere into Dec - ( note the red block mid Dec )
  3. 10 likes
    I dunno MQ, by that time I've tuned him oot. Forgot to post this pic, taken the other day from my back door. It doesny look like this today..
  4. 6 likes
    I'm not sure I follow what you mean. The original post suggested a link between 'weather' in October to 'weather' the following winter. I responded that there was, as yet, no reliable link. weather not climate.
  5. 5 likes
    Back on topic Sunday looks very wet in some areas particularly the central spine of the country into Eastern England some places may see 40-50mm of rain from the band of rain that sort of gets stuck in Eastern areas.. Something to keep an eye on perhaps? Most of that rain would still be pretty useful in East anglia but not for northern England as this chart and the arpege are alluding to being very wet. Details will change as always.
  6. 3 likes
    Wet on Sunday would seem to be the view supported by all ensemble members in addition to the control and operational runs.
  7. 3 likes
    Not much point reading, as its just pseudo-scientific The Ural blocking in November is definitely interesting to watch, we had an anomaly there last year, which helped disrupt the PV, not quite giving the cold here that a lot of people wanted, but close and then eventually culminating in the SSW. Everything is linked and the atmosphere gives us clues, it's never as simple as A+B=C which i think people keep getting confused with
  8. 3 likes
    4 days in and no fog yet
  9. 3 likes
    10.0c to be the 3rd 2.2c below the 61 to 90 average 2.4c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd
  10. 3 likes
    Mind you, for all CreweCold's usual relish in being a harbinger of mild doom, long range models in October are still not quite worth slashing your wrists about. They're not in "t!t$ on a bull" territory in terms of reliability anymore, but... Well you can fill in the gaps. They're more of a watching brief
  11. 3 likes
    Thanks for Posting that Zak M. my Italian Mother was born about 25 Miles North of Vesuvius, in a town called Caserta. I've seen some real "humdingers" on visits to the area, at this time of Year. Cooler air starts to encroach the Mediterranean Basin, during the transition from the long Mediterranean Summer into Autumn. When I was around 7, I actually experienced an Earth Tremor whilst visiting my Uncle at Castellammare di Stabia, which is around 15 Miles South of Mt.Vesuvius. My Uncle took myself, Mother and Sister up onto the local Mountain, fearing a Tsunami as Castellammare has a Coastal location. When we returned back down to Castellammare, a violent t/storm (unrelated I know) broke over the town and turned the local Roads, into Rivers. Regards, Tom.
  12. 3 likes
    I disagree that what happens in October doesn't affect the winter, it must do, just that a cold October doesn't mean a cold winter, thats all, it must affect it in some way. On the first of october, the pressure pattern is at a given point and then evolves due to the laws of physics, ie- Thermodynamics, Coriolis effect, Solar output etc, yes it isn't as predictable as we would like at that range but it is wrong to say it has no effect.
  13. 2 likes
    That is out of date now really, there have been lots more runs since then its just we havent seen them - the next one we see is due out at the end of next week.
  14. 2 likes
  15. 2 likes
    They are impressive but that temperature anomaly chart would look far nicer if it was blue! Not a chance!
  16. 2 likes
    Amazing to think what was a cat 5 hurricane a few days ago came over here today as drizzle and a light breeze.
  17. 2 likes
    So looking at that I'd say the odds certainly seem to favour the seasonal model outcome I.e PV situated over Greenland with blocking confined to the mid latitudes over our side of the Atlantic. That anomalous Pacific warmth needs to bugger off.
  18. 2 likes
    I had a feeling it was ! I used to live in Sutton and that was my favourite spot for weather watching and for the view of London. I used to love Esher as well, especially West End. So enjoy your pics
  19. 2 likes
    GFS Operational is on the less-pleasant side of everything, tonight: I don't know about the GEFS, feb, but let me know when snow starts to appear on the shed roof!
  20. 2 likes
    Snow starting to appear now on the GEFS.
  21. 2 likes
    First I wasn't presenting a seasonal forecast ( just a paraphrased post) and am not a competitive forecaster anyway, and don't subscribe to competitive 'methods' either. If you read the post properly (which you didn't) then you would see that I illustrated this by saying that I don't have the technical where-with-all of the person (person(s) to which I referred. Being honest isn't a weakness and doesn't need to be compensated by tub-thumping statements that proclaim what the 'talk of the weather community is these days'... This is an an internet site for people of all levels and hopefully of managed ego's - , not a platform for parading 'method manifestos'. There is too much of this grandstanding in our outside world as it is... Arctic amplification was mentioned - I referred to it briefly as part of a condensed post and simply didn't write extensively about something that is pertinent to what you want to be the peoples anthem for the coming winter. It is one factor of many, which on its own does not lead to one favoured outcome all the time (as one season to another each year bears out), but involves consideration of multi-variables that might imply more than the one solution than a majority might want to hear. You are free to do this of course, if you want to steer towards a populist outcome - but things don't always work out in reality however convincing they might appear to those who like what they hear. Indeed things don't always work out for anyone when based on attempted objective discussion - the weather makes mugs of all of us. But better to start from a baseline that manages expectation and hopes to learn from mistakes rather than be a tribal lead to populist weather preferences . The price of narcissism does have limits
  22. 1 like
    As we're starting to see more chat about the upcoming winter in other threads, here's a dedicated one for everyone to get their teeth into...
  23. 1 like
    Early selections from me, as spending tonight in Seaton, Devon, meeting up with friends we havent seen for 2 years, so not sure if i'd have time tom morn before heading home to Bristol late morn tom. Newmarket 1.40 Eva Maria 2.15 Indian Creek and Under the Stars 3.25 Laurens Ascot 2.00 Dakota Gold (NAP) 2.35 Morando 3.10 1.Raising Sand 2. Casanova 3. Gulliver Redcar 2.55 Summer Sands and Troubadar Longchamp 3.25 Enbihaar 4.35 Dee Ex Bee
  24. 1 like
    Maybe some localised fog tonight under clearing skies?
  25. 1 like
  26. 1 like
  27. 1 like
    Excuse my ignorance but why is it linked to solely October?
  28. 1 like
    Once again, this is weather vs climate!
  29. 1 like
    I've never felt easy about what appear to me as 'reverse correlations'; given enough paring-down, we end-up with a sample of one: October 1962 begat January 1963...? Is it really any wonder, then, that the annual round of 'Oh golly-gee, doesn't such-and-such an October pattern look just like 1962...and the rest was history!' statements have success-rate of zero?
  30. 1 like
    Hell no! Me and my partner both have naturally high body temperatures, especially at night. Plus we have a dog who likes to sleep under the covers with us so he keeps us toasty. We love having windows open, even when it's cold outside. The general rule in our house is to put on a jumper if you're cold! The heating only comes on when daytime temperatures are below 10C or nights are below freezing - and even then it's only on for an hour in the early morning and an hour mid evening. The only exception to the rule is if we have anyone elderly visiting or if anyone brings a baby round. Neither of those situations arise very often so our heating bill is generally lower than the average.
  31. 1 like
    If Silva had made a joke comparing a white player to a stereotypically white caricature nothing would've been said, even though Silva is of a different racial background. Mendy wanted nothing done about it, he laughed and took it in the spirit in which it was intended. The FA and the whole of society need to just get a grip. There's a vast difference between comparing someone to a picture and being racially abusive. I do understand the need to stamp out racist abuse in sport and elsewhere, however there has to be a cutoff point, governed by common sense. Sadly the common sense part seems to be seriously lacking these days.
  32. 1 like
    Yes. Snow briefly fell here in 08, 10 and 12 (only for about 5 minutes overnight in 2012) but October 2000 is the only time we got a proper settling. Came right after a nasty low too which formed near Portugal and moved north.
  33. 1 like
    (here's why that missing forecast score for seaside60 was spotted, I was working my way through this table and found that seaside60 had entered all EWP but was shown with 9/10 for CET, which I thought must be unusual so I went back to look ... anyway, making mistakes in tables is not unknown in my own case, I keep amending them as I find them and don't always note the changes unless they have a big impact on somebody's scoring. Thanks J10 for clearing that up, Combined Ranks for CET and EWP contests This table shows ranked positions of all regular entrants in CET contests, with their EWP ranking if they have entered any contests. In those cases where the numbers of contests entered are not the same, the combined rank is only given when the number of EWP contests entered is within two of the number of CET, otherwise, the rank is shown in brackets and not applied to the average ranking. This applies even in a case like nn2013 who entered 9 CET and 5 EWP. Anyone who has entered fewer than 8/10 CET contests will not be ranked for CET therefore cannot be shown in this format even if they have an EWP rank higher than some forecasters shown here. The CET rank in brackets is a subgrouping within those who qualified for a combined rank. Those who play only (or mainly) CET contests are shown here but their positions are based on CET only, and they don't have an average rank although they appear in the order that their CET rank attains. Just to explain using some examples ... Born from the Void has a rank of 4th in CET but 3rd among those who played enough EWP contests to attain an averaged rank. Summer Blizzard is 7th in CET and entered only one EWP contest which left him with a rank of T62, that's not counted as part of his overall rank which is found next to EdStone who has the average rank of 7th for being 6th in CET (5th among those who regularly enter EWP) and 8th in EWP. AVG RANK __ FORECASTER _____ CET rank __ EWP rank ___ played __ --- _______ Quicksilver1989 ______ 1 _______ --- __________ 9, 0 ___ 2.5 ______ Born From the Void __ 4 (3) _____ 1 __________ 10 ___ 3.5 ______ Reef ______________ 5 (4) _____ 2 __________ 10 ___ 7.0 ______Ed Stone ___________ 6 (5) _____ 8 __________ 10 ___ ---- ______ summer blizzard _____ 7 _______ (T62) _______ 10, 1 ___ 7.0 ______ Don _______________ 9 (6) _____ 5 __________ 10 ___ ---- ______ Jonathan F. _________ 8 _______ --- __________10, 0 ___ 8.5 ______ DR(S)NO __________ 11 (8) ____ t-6 _________ 10 ___ 9.0 _____ seaside60 __________ 12 (9) _____t-6 _________ 10 ___ 9.5 ______ Mulzy _____________ 10 (7) _____9 __________10 __ 10.0 ______ Stationary Front _____ 3 (2) _____ 17 _________ 10 __ 11.5 ______ Stargazer __________ 13 (10) ___ 10 _________ 10 __ 12.0 ______ The PIT ____________ 2 (1) _____22 _________ 10 __ 13.0 ______ weather-history ______22 (16) ____ 4 _________ 10 __ --- _______ Summer Sun ________ 14 _______ --- _________ 10, 0 __ 14.5 _____ Feb1991Blizzard ______17 (12) ___ 12 _________ 10 __ --- _______ Man with Beard ______ 16 _______ --- _________ 10, 0 __ 17.5 ______Norrance ___________ 15 (11) __ 20 __________ 10 __ 18.0 _____ J 10 ________________33 (22) ___ 3 __________ 10 __ 18.5 _____ Midlands Ice Age _____ 19 (14) __ 18 __________ 10 __ --- _______ damianslaw _________ 21 _____ --- ___________10, 0 __ 21.5 ______ CheesepuffScott ____t-27 (18) __ 16 __________ 10 __ 21.5 ______DiagonalRedLine ____ 24 (17) ___ 19 __________10 __ 23.0 ______ DAVID SNOW ______ 18 (13) ___ 28 __________10 __ --- ________ sundog ____________23 ______ --- ___________ 8, 0 __ 24.0 ______ Jeff C _____________ 35 (24) ___13 __________ 10 __ 25.0 ______ Kirkcaldy Weather ___ 36 (25) ___14 __________ 10 __ --- ________ Mark Bayley ________25 ______ --- ___________ 9, 0 __ 26.0 ______ daniel* ____________ 41 (28) ___ 11 __________10 __ --- ________ Duncan McAlister ___ 26 ______ --- ___________10,0 __ 26.5 ______ timmytour __________20 (15) ___33 __________ 10 __ --- ________ dancerwithwings ____t-27______ --- __________ 10, 0 __ 28.0 ______ virtualsphere _______ 29 (19) ___ 27 __________10, 9 __ --- ________ nn2013 ___________ 30 ______ (39) _________ 9, 5 __ 30.0 ______ Godber 1 __________ 45 (31) ___ 15 _________ 10, 9 __ 30.5 ______ Roger J Smith ______ 31 (20) ___ 30 __________ 10 __ 33.5 ______ weather26 _________ 32 (21) ___ 35 __________ 10 __ 34.0 ______ davehsug __________39 (27) ___ 29 __________ 10 __ 34.0 ______ Blast from the Past __ 47 (33) ___ 21 __________ 10 __ 34.5 ______ Bobd29 ___________ 38 (26) ___ 31 __________ 10 __ 35.0 ______ I Remember Atl 252 __34 (23) ___ 36 __________ 10 __ 35.0 ______ Let It Snow! ________ 44 (30) ___ 26 ___________ 9, 8 __ 35.5 ______ jonboy _____________46 (32) ___25 ___________ 9 __ 36.0 ______ syed2878 __________ 48 (34) ___24 ___________ 10 __ 36.0 ______ brmbrmcar _________ 49 (35) ___ 23 ___________ 10 __ --- ________ Leo97t ____________ 37 _______(47)__________ 9, 5 __ 37.5 ______ Steve B ____________43 (29) ___ 32 ___________9 __ --- ________ snowray ___________ 40 _______ --- _________ 10, 0 __ --- ________ Walsall Wood Snow __ 42 _______ --- _________ 10, 0 __ 43.5 ______ stewfox ____________ 50 (36) ___ 37 __________ 9 __ 43.5 ______ Polar Gael __________53 (37) ___ 34 __________ 10 __ --- ________ Earthshine __________51 _______(51)__________8, 2 __ --- ________ Kentish Man ________ 52 _______ --- __________10, 0 __ --- ________ ProlongedSnowLover _ 54_______ --- __________ 9, 0 __ 60.5 ______ Lettucing Gutted ______55 ______ 66 __________ 10 Unlike last year, there is beginning to show a trend of similar rankings in both contests. Perhaps the challenge is helping some to improve their CET forecasts? The most anomalous EWP rank is that of J 10 (3rd against 33rd CET), followed by weather-history (4th vs 22nd CET). The most anomalous CET rank appears to be that of The PIT (2nd CET vs 22nd EWP) then Stationary Front (3rd CET vs 17th EWP).
  34. 1 like
    Sunny spells for a while this afternoon before it clouded over with light rain on and off during the rest of the afternoon. Heavier rain now. Currently 15.3°C which is the highest it's been today.
  35. 1 like
    Agree. I've done some posting over in the 'will we get another run of winters like...' thread
  36. 1 like
    Wondering if the La Nina affected that, which is why i have temporarily gone against the expert consensus in that rather than a moderate modoki El nino being the best, i think a La Nina is better as it might help to at least neutralise the PDO.
  37. 1 like
  38. 1 like
    No...Not another #winterofdiscontent! I like it too, Fred. It's a promising start
  39. 1 like
    Real serious cold pooling over Greenland building up on this run, just needs a trigger and genuine cold will follow, don't think it will happen on this run but....
  40. 1 like
    Lovely smog tinged vista of the City of London !
  41. 1 like
    ^^^ Is my reaction to those who glibly say we've had it, or there is nothing we can do, or behave like gamblers as per BFTV'd excellent point above.
  42. 1 like
    Yep, bit nippy first thing but by 1 pm it felt lovely and warm in the sun. I even pushed up the sleeves on my sweatshirt and even thought about taking it off. Gotta tan them arms and get my vitamin D before winter.
  43. 1 like
    Nice steam fog effect coming of Black Pond Esher Common !
  44. 1 like
    First day it felt like proper autumn, despite the sunshine. There’s that ‘scent’ in the air this evening too, that hints at frost and cold.
  45. 1 like
    What's that got to do with my post?
  46. 1 like
    Just as a very brief addition (before properly retiring to the sidlelines until next Spring) to the previous post made about 5 weeks back which alluded to the escalation of confirmation bias wrt weather preferences which.rises to its highest levels in autumn and winter Its based on a conversation I have had with someone who is a very well respected observer elsewhere, with a level of knowledge and perception that many would aspire to and of a higher technical level for sure than my own. Most importantly they suspend their own natural preferences and make judgements neutrally and based on the merits of all variables present and not selectively. Such observers I think are the ones particularly worth listening to and trying to learn from. Anyway, relevant to the here and now situation but extrapolating that forward in terms of future possibilities - here is some of that conversation based on my own contributions. A few further additions have subsequently been made to make it most relevant to the UK and Europe Yes for my own purposes, a defacto traditional Nina regime looks increasingly likely to persist in the months ahead. The question being where any Pacific convergence may set up to interfere with the regime and create scope for less tropical and extra tropical disconnect to the base state. In that sense the much less disconnected SOI plays a bit part if any westerly wind compartment is isolated, so to speak, due to a wider overriding -ve momentum inertia High amplitude Phase 3 GWO could well be set to return to Phase 1 as trade winds increase across the IO following the recent extra tropical increase in momentum. Once the +EAMT wavelength fades over coming days, -ve FT in the tropics will lead MT momentum trending -ve once more and maintain the GWO well within the Nina attractor phases - providing the steer to persisting sub tropical ridging. This sub tropical ridging is well in evidence in present modelling and amplification of this ridging during autumn and indeed winter to provide short lived colder incursions is quite consistent with many similar years and not at all unusual, or any signal of a harsh winter, This, plus question marks wrt QBO transition needs to be balanced against any weakness within the polar field c/o arctic and other destabilizing factors and why I personally continue to be much more ambivalent and sceptical about the relevance of blocking patterns at this stage of autumn in terms of what it might imply ahead. Just my view of course - and which customarily tries to be detached from mainstream hype that grows each and every year, at this time of year - and when sensible weather preferences and ideals often attempt to fit too many drivers to produce that desired outcome, when probabilities often suggest alternative solutions that are much less popular to the masses. The gist of this extract is that much is yet to become clearer in terms of seasonal overview, but especially stressing that model output commentary during the early stages of the short seasons and making assumptions based on persistence of certain aspects of patterns is fraught with error when attempting to assign specially selected drivers as a means to fit the desired outcome. To all those following progress of the weather patterns in the weeks ahead, try to enjoy progress and evolution - regardless of outcomes vs preferred outcomes
  47. 1 like
    Something that I've noticed a bit different this year is the amount of geese that are flying over the house in the last few days seems to be a hell of a lot of them ! Instead of flying south seems to be more of an east/south east direction, they're heading in.
  48. 1 like
    Nice storm currently near Mount Vesuvius. https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/campania/napoli/vesuvio.html
  49. 1 like
    If anyone, professional meteo or not, thinks they can predict the weather for 3 to 5 months in the future, for a set of islands situated in NW Europe with the Atlantic to its West, and a warm gulf stream very close by, then think again. My advice? Ignore the Winter forecasts, this far out. If we get to early December maybe take more notice, but mid-late Sept forecasts predicting for Jan/Feb for these islands?! Forget it!
  50. 1 like
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