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Hi gang , great to read all the posts although i have been a lurker of late .finaly sorted my life out after the passing of my late wife 2 yrs ago .Looks like some real action weather over the coming 10 days .have a feeling in my water things could get very interesting ,take care all .

Please Mods don't delete for been of Topic buts let's stop and think in the months to come when the bickering and sniping starts Legritter post above drives home the message and puts things in prospective.so pleased you are getting things back to some kind of normality the Net weather community will always be with you. C.S

Morning. ICON slays the ECM again. ECM 00z 168 yesterday V 144 today - No ridge yesterday & a fast return to a +NAO Today almost the match to the ICON in terms of Greenland ridge with vertical WAA Todays ECM 168 places lorenzo for the undercut in exactly the same place as ICON had it yesterday. ( not good news for Ireland )

One of a number of photos today from Western Isles Weather of a possible tornado in the South of Lewis. Funnel clouds also reported in the North of the island. I believe that the owner of Western Isles Weather site may be a tornado chaser here.

Just for fun - If ever there was a @knocker @Summer Sun December then this would be it.

There's more than a hint of winter about next week according to the Gfs 0z operational which is GREAT to see!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!❄

So a "drier" night compared to last night but still a scattering of showers for particularly western coasts although some filtering inland at times windy too across the south tonight but mostly dry. Then for tomorrow a dry start in Central and Eastern areas but a small trough moving from west to east with some persistent spells of rain moving through northern Ireland Wales into northern England some locally heavy rain aswell as bands of showers work there way southeast across much of England and Wales some really heavy downpours are likely but some sunshine possible particularly in the morning showers too for Scotland but because winds are lighter the showers will be slower moving. Winds also strong across England and Wales with gusts to around 40mph particularly with the heavier downpours. Tomorrow night then turns drier for Scotland and Southern England but perhaps a line of showers moving across the far north of England during the night less windy too. Saturday then looks mostly dry for much of the country but cloud and rain arrives in the southwest later. This then pushes northeastwards across the whole of England and Wales also into parts of Northern Ireland later in the night turning very heavy fairly widely particularly for Wales and northwest England, Winds strengthen through the night with coastal gales for the southwest but very windy inland too northern Scotland looking dry. Sunday then for much of England and Wales is looking very wet for much of the day only slowly clearing into the evening into the North Sea along with very strong winds for North sea coasts also for the southwest as the low potentially becomes elongated, Scotland drier with just a few showers early rain for northern Ireland clearing southeast later. Sunday night into Monday is looking much drier with some sunshine early on perhaps but by late afternoon the next batch of rain is waiting to the southwest and will take a similar track through England and Wales come Monday night lingering into Tuesday afternoon. All in all looking very wet particularly for the southern half of the country welcome rain for the south ofcourse. This forecast is based on the arpege so details can change other models are in similar agreement. Hope this is informative and useful.

yep welcome back @tight isobar another 8 months trying to work out what any of your posts mean!!! can we have it in plane old english this winter??

Shower just passed through leaving a double Rainbow

Here's a few charts from the GEFS 6z to warm the cockles of all the Netweather coldies.. yes it's deep FI but that's a minor detail...winter is coming Gang..anyhoo, we don't have to wait until mid october for cold weather, next week looks colder!!!!!❄

Genuine snow chances with P2.

Morning all, Up early to have breakfast with my Wife, before she started her early Morning shift. Our breakfast was accompanied by the sound of a very vociferous Vixen?? (that's not easy to type, first thing in the Morning!!). Evidently, they only mate at the start of the Year. I think this individual may well have been calling for it's breakfast, as one of our Neighbours is famous for feeding Foxes. We heard plenty of "concertos", during the long and balmy Summer Nights, just passed!!! I'm sure Colette's thankful I don't make that noise, when wanting my breakfast!! Right, onto MeteoGroup's extended Forecast. Below is a BBC Video link to the Forecast, Helen Willetts on shift: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49847261 Helen started her Forecast by stating that we've already made up for the dry start to September, across the U.K. but more Rain, is on the way. A mass of cloud out in mid-Atlantic, waiting in the wings for overnight Saturday, into Sunday. But ahead of that some torrential downpours likely, in the form of Showers. Today, we're likely to see some heavy Showers possibly with hail/thunder, after a dry start with some sunshine. The Showers should move through quite quickly on brisk winds, from the S.W. Max. Temps. for the London area, around 18c. Tomorrow, sees Sunday's "troublemaker" starts to move in from the S.W. Some Tropical Air will be "encased" in this System, which will mean some copious amounts of Rain, are likely to fall. Saturday looks a very reasonable start, it should start dry, after any overnight Showers have exited the extreme S.E., of our Region. Max.Temps., again around 18c, for the London area. Cloud will then thicken, as that deepening area of Low Pressure moves up from the S.W., bringing with it some heavy Rain and strong Winds. Allied to high Tides, there could potentially be some localised flood issues, for Southern Coastal areas of our Region. Once that Rain eventually moves out of our Region, a strong N.W. wind will arrive in it's wake. A "drying out" picture, moving through Sunday then with Sunny spells developing and a Max.Temp again of around 18c, for the London area. The start of the new Week, sees a brief respite from the unsettled Weather, under a temporary Ridge of High Pressure. Dry for our Region on Monday then with some Sunny spells and a Max.Temp. of around 18c again, for the London area. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the Weather goes "downhill" yet again with more Rain moving across our Region. This Rain will eventually clear away on Tuesday, from our Region with Sunny spells developing and a Max.Temp. of around 17c, for the London area. Wednesday should see a drier spell of Weather, for our Region but Helen suggests it's not set to last, as Low Pressure (amalgamated with ex-Hurricane LORENZO) in mid-Atlantic,looks to become the dominant feature again. Although our Region should escape the worst of the Wind and Rain and it will feel quite muggy, as the Tropical Air associated with that feature, floods across the U.K. That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Helen Willetts. So, a very disturbed spell of Weather to come over the Weekend then, for our Region. Something to watch out for today, IMO. Is something I mentioned a while ago, we'll have an unstable S.W. flow with a reasonable length of track across the English Channel, whose S.S.T's are relatively high at the moment. At the start of her Forecast Helen's graphics suggested some heavy ppn in the form of Showers which could well be squally and thundery with some hail mixed in, pecking away at our S.E. Coastline, which could be of interest to those Brontophiles amongst our Members in those locations, as we go through today. Regards, Tom.

Well I was wrong about that second line of showers missing me. A good half hour of moderate rain and 5 minutes of torrential stuff gave 7mm in total. And a couple of rumbles of thunder too. As hoped, as the showers passed through late afternoon there were some lovely cloudscapes as the setting sun lit up the departing clouds.

Very heavy rain and plenty of C-C strikes. At one point, the rain was rebounding several inches from our concrete garden path/ramp from the French doors.

GEFS control gives us a direct hit from the Arctic!

A couple out of a number of photos posted on Western Isles Weather of a possible tornado in Lewis. A funnel cloud was also reported in Ness.

Anyone else in the central south feel like giving up on this whole ‘storms’ thing?

Hi folks... Next week we may get a lull in proceedings around mid week, before deep low pressure takes over later next week and weekend... Looks like there could be some serious disruption from wind and rainfall amounts. Its not going to be feeling to warm either!! Also some great cold pooling to our N/NW at this stage... Long may it continue. On a passing note.... Good to see you still posting @legritter...sorry for your loss mate.. Stay strong. Enjoy your day folks.

Yes, there was a northerly in October 2008, 2010 and 2012, all three were followed by some decent and at times bitter cold and snow. Not unusual to see northerlies in October, can often happen more so than during June-Sept period and also November to think of that - indeed getting a northerly in November is very difficult nowadays it seems. Back to the models, expect further changes from day to day as the models play around with ex hurricane Lorenzo and how it interacts with the jet and programmed strong heights to the north. Its quite probable it may become a slow moving feature anchored to our NW, thanks in part to heights to the north east, and in time might be forced to swing through SE as it weakens - hence we could see the following pattern to start October - northerly, ridge, south westerly, cyclonic, back to northerly - a real mix of everything.

that makes a change,we need this repeating pattern to continue into the winter months.

Same thing here, Mark, plus 2-3 rumbles and a lovely flash of white lightning. That makes a one-thousand percent increase in thunder days, compared to last year!

Good to see you back Legritter. Could be an interesting Winter I feel. Hopefully some Stellar model runs to come

Hi. Really biblical storm crossed the Humber, heavy rain, lightning and strong winds Regards Glenn

wow! 5 minutes of really heavy rain just gone through, the rain was so heavy the visibility went right down, 6mm of rain in 10 minutes!

1: To make me feel somewhat more Professional and organised... 2: So I can say ‘Look! I made this thing!’ In all seriousness, I made it so I can reference it in my Weather journal passages (For example, A thunderstorm event with heavy rain; I could also quote the NW radar colour scheme), as well as for observational purposes.

Current snow forecast for montana over the weekend. 50 inches.

Andd. . It's high time to fall off that now cracked summer fence!!! I can't remember tbh being quite so exited by the very early prog/early notions sliding into the vastness/madness..of our deceiptful/-sometimes -comical winter months!! A pretty basic 1 for starts. But my eye is taken via many factors as we slowly roll in.. But the immediate shunt..is the northern hemisphere snow forms. Taking the oceanic stills and likely formats as we progress.. The the evolving 'likely' strains on pressure squeeze into the upper/higher latts..it's certainly spiking early interest!!. In simple terms 'right NOW'.. The extent...And cover formats will hold a high sign for us/those seeking early preference to 'perhaps' a good shape going IN!! Large scale missing except on the previous format subject-2018-.. Yet already the minamal raise!! And certainly an-earmarked upage on a northern eatern early impact!!!.. Now that is-what ya want to be seeing..in regards to latter nw blocking format.. And most definitely... For encouraging N/N/E polar incursions... Not going into other forms..ie upper layer influences..Just yet..but.. It's definitely...a roller...early on this 1!!!!!

cAfternoon All- Its early doors in terms of venturing to much into the MOD thread however with the run in to 19/20 eagerly awaited - The current juncture seems a decent point to inject a bit of 'cold' optimism. Current persistence of the -NAO 2019 has been record breaking throughout AMJJA - However with a spike into low positive territory early Sept the thoughts of the negative trend lasting through Autumn & Winter probably took a hit. We have now possibly moved through this positive phase into a negative oscillation which initially appeared to be a temporary affair- however increasingly as the pressure field over the pole gets better resolved & approaches ~ 144 > 168 so the possibility of a more sustained -NAO period with High pressure in situ over Iceland appears likely. The 12z ICON goes full undercut -The GFS has morphed towards this from the 06z but not fully & the 00z ECM had no energy underneath. ICON GFS Its at times like this the models & mid term signal often follows the persistence of the ongoing NAO pattern - & in Autumn / Winter thats usually working back towards positivity- however on occasion it would seem no matter whats thrown at the models they gravitate to cold - 2009 / 2010 / 2018 being some examples where all roads lead to cold despite mild being the trend to start with. If you overlay this with the ongoing thoughts ( raised by me at least ) that the arctic is going through rapid 'evolution' then if this evolution is ever to drive a higher frequency of cold / very cold episodes in the UK then the undercut type scenario has to happen in Oct > & also Nov in December. Which of course will go against the current seasonal outlook. cheers S PS the undercutting scenario is certainly better for SAI / westward snow movement out of Russia.

Bonkers cold here. Bonkers warmth in the West of the USA

While still being a few days out, the likes of the 12Z UKMO, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM in general agree to the weather settling down a bit during the middle of next week, as some mid-Atlantic ridging (likely to be transient) develops over the UK. 12Z UKMO 12Z GFS 12Z GEM 12Z ECMWF Some showers can’t be ruled out towards North-Eastern areas next week in the cool North-Westerly to Northerly wind, and some rain, which could be accompanied by strong winds as some speak about, may move into Western areas next Thursday. But the speed, timing and angle of any unsettled weather from the West/South-West later next week, does depend how that likely storm to the South-West of the UK ridging behaves. For now, a (temporary) period for some drier, less unsettled weather looks possible for that middle part of next week.

The control is some what consistent,i posted it yesterday evening and looks very similar run that chart to 300 hrs 850hpa temps and you get this,-4 isotherm down past the south coast,bonkers for September,sorry,October.

Saw this one also. Just looked at the site and there are others but all very similar to those posted and taken from same three locations. One also of a small funnel cloud in Ness also there but nothing like as impressive. The owner of Western Isles Weather is I think a member on here who does the US storm chases.

Lets have a closer look,that looks pretty windy. if it was to come off.

Incredible run that for October. But an outlier too. After a very boring first two-thirds of September, things are beginning to get interesting

Hi all, could be fun seeing the frames between T144 and T168, might still be very windy in the SW as it moves in. Rainfall amounts could be quite impressive!

The Westminster shower?

It's been a pretty grim day hereabouts, grey, light to moderate rain on and off during the afternoon, temp 12C currently, which is all rather disappointing as there is quite a good aurora forecast for the weekend. Still waves of swallows and martins passing through - the martins in the pic are of the sand variety and were among a mixed group of 20-25. They'd better get their skates on.

Jeez, it's like a tropical storm out there.

Any lingering thoughts of droughts will soon be a distant memory! Hosing it down here once more.

Defo a cold snap next week; but, until then, there's little if any downward pressure on the CET, relative to the long-term mean? After that, it all goes a little FI, with T850s ranging from -6 to +18C (post 11/10) looking like harbingers of increasing downstream uncertainty...? It might rain on October 1st, too!

Cute little rainbow I encountered underneath a dissipating shower:

With the equilux now gone, we now have more darkness than daylight for the first time since the 17th March! Also we are now loosing daylight at its fastest rate! ... Currently four minutes and nine seconds a day! So I'd say that we're now pretty much at full speed towards the clock change and Halloween. ?️

A very autumnal look to this morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles:

How to blow the ridge away. Don't merge Lorenzo with the Atlantic upper trough

Morning Peeplings! Been a wee bit damp overnight, currently 12.2c, cloud trying to clear. Looks like it might be a reasonable weekend up here!

Very unusual charts for early October. The block now under cutting an ex hurricane ! ( re latest ECM and Icon holding the same prediction ) Still some time off of course but UKMO at 144h looks quite resilient regarding holding heights to the north. Thought over here is still for lows to track on a more southerly projection. I would say very interesting model watching this weekend. Batten down the hatches for you southerners on Sunday ! c

More snow on the way for the High Tatras next week. Looks like we'll avoid last autumn's warm dry horror. Nice and damp here in Warsaw too, much needed to replenish the water levels.

Time to dig out those canoes and kayaks folks... Nowhere really escapes the rain in the next 10 days, with some very large totals falling in Wales, N/NW England and N Ireland. Flooding will be an issue, no doubt about that. The signal for higher pressure developing into October is also fading into the ether: A lot of this is down to Lorenzo tracking into the mid latitudes and adding a hand grenade of energy into the Atlantic and really adding some bite into the jet: Plenty of unsettled weather for the UK for the next 10-14 days.

Ah, thank you, one in the English I understand, but welcome back ti