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I've taken my time to respond to comments made in the past 24 hours or so, because I wanted to give a careful, measured response. I totally respect Malcolm's (Blessed Weather) wishes to "draw a line" under the current discussions regarding my posts, and want to play my part to help achieve the same result. I'm actually in a lot of pain at the moment. I had some dental work performed at King's College Hospital's Dental Clinic, on Monday Morning and it didn't go as well, as I would've liked and has left me with a lot of pain, plus in the past few Weeks I've started to develop Arthritic pain in my hands and shoulders. Despite taking regular doses of Paracetamol since Monday lunchtime, I'm still suffering quite a bit of pain and after quite a few sleepless Nights, I'm starting to feel sleep deprived. I don't find that Paracetamol is a particularly effective form of pain relief for myself, I find that Ibuprofen is far more effective but I'm not allowed to take this any longer, due to my Brain bleed of 4 Years ago. I think this overwhelming feeling of fatigue, added to my "grouchiness" of the other day and I apologise for my stroppy behaviour of the other day. I had to get up at 5 AM this Morning because I was in so much pain but went back to bed again at around 8 AM and managed to get a few hours, "catch up" sleep. I now feel more refreshed and able to help put an end, to the current problems. I'd like to thank all the messages of support I've received from Members, in posts above (to numerous to mention, sorry) @crepuscular-ray, sorry not sure how that highlighting thingy works? Thank you for your apology but it wasn't your pop at me, that got my "goat" (sorry Lassie). A few Months ago, I had an Appointment with a Psychiatrist/Neurologist at King's College Hospital to view how my Brain was recovering from my Haemorrhage/Stroke of 4 Years ago. Ironically, exactly 4 Years ago today I was being woken after 10 Days of Hospital induced Coma (my Brain "put to sleep", to help it recover from the trauma it had suffered). I received a diagnosis from the Psychiatrist/Neurologist, that my long term memory had pretty much returned to normal but that I had still some issues with my short term memory. Much more pertinent to my recent problems on the Forum, was her suggestion that I was "missing social cues". The Psychiatrist hinting that I couldn't differentiate between appropriate and inappropriate behaviour and the inability to read a person's body language/facial expression. Evidently, these problems are quite common, after a trauma to the Brain. Also, not knowing when to "shut up", basically!! (Sounds like me). Which leads me on to Rachel Rileygate. I now concede posting that photo of Miss Riley and my constant references to how a Female Weather Presenter looked, were totally inappropriate and I apologise to those Female Members who found that offensive, unreservedly. I will continue to post on this Forum but will endeavour to do so, on a more Weather related footing and throttle back on the "Benny Hill" style stuff and constant references to my very supportive Wife Colette and her delicious cooking. Apologies again to Moderators and Members alike, for stirring up a "Hornet's Nest". Regards, Tom.

Thanks for your very kind words Steve. Remember this: I've posted this YouTube clip, many times. It appeared on BBC News and was filmed at the height of that epic "Thames Streamer", on Sun/Mon. 1st/2nd February.2009. You can make out cars in the background, on the M25 near Dartford. I was at my current address, here in Lee and Steve was either living at Bexleyheath or Greenhithe, at the time?? That was an all night radar watching vigil and myself, along with Steve heard a few crashes of thunder, during that event. It was the most potent "Thames Streamer" event I've witnessed, certainly since my time on NW. It gave around 6 inches here in Lee, very respectable for this location. The following day, was my day off. My Wife and myself went on a 3 and a half mile "Snow Walk" to Bromley. There was around 8 inches in Bromley and the Town Centre was empty, the shops closed early, some not having opened at all. On the following day, I went back to work in Croydon and was amazed to find the snow was an inch or two, deeper there. In my experience of "Thames Streamers", Croydon never "out-snowed" Bromley in T/S, events, being that bit further S,W. and further away from the Thames Estuary, fuel for "Thames Streamers". Below is a YouTube clip of the scenes in Croydon, on 2nd Feb. 2009: Unbelievable scenes from Croydon and literally a few hundred yards, from where my Office was located. It was the largest fall of snow I'd experienced in the 18 Years that I worked there, although December 2010, ran it close. Below, the scene in Croydon on the Morning of 2nd Dec.2010., another very respectable fall for this location: I also vividly remember a "Streamer" of a thundery variety, broke out during the early evening on a very humid Saturday, in September (can't remember the Year), perhaps Steve M. can help me out there. I was TomSE20 at the time and living in Anerley, a train of back-building severe t/storms broke out along the Thames Corridor and on into S.E.London. Not sure where Steve was living then but can remember him reporting that his Basement Flat was flooded. (told you my long term memory was nearly back to normal) It was possibly 2005 but not sure. When I was TomSE20 and living in Anerley, S.E.London, Steve M. (at Bexleyheath) and Kold Weather (at Thurrock), were an important "Snow Marker", for me. When they were reporting snow falling on an ENE flow (Thames Streamer Territory), I knew within a few minutes I would see snow falling in Anerley. Sure enough looking towards Shooters Hill, from the balcony of my 1st Floor Maisonette in Anerley, I could see the "orange glow", advancing ever closer and the "white gold" was soon covering everywhere. I hope Members have enjoyed that stroll back, to some epic Weather events across our Region. Here's hoping that the Chionophiles amongst us that live in the Thames Corridor, as well as those Members around the rest of our Region, receive some decent snow events, this coming Winter. Regards, Tom.

Lovely polar profile on the GEM this morning would take that late Nov onwards.

Really? I think you mean more drama queens/kings by the looks of things in here. All the regional threads have interesting people - hence why I enjoy browsing through each one of them every time I visit this forum. (Every season of the year) This thread probably more often than most (out-with Scotland thread) as I have family who live in the South East and I visit them at least four times a year. The regional threads are all about what it says on the tin...chat about your local weather and it's effect on your daily life here in the regional forums. I respect Tom and have enjoyed his posts for years regarding all things weather related - think the issue for some ladies and maybe some men could be his musings about Rachel Riley’s long legs, almost daily chat about how attractive female weather presenters are looking or as the member above mentioned...his wife’s cooking. (I had no issue with any of this but in this day and age I can see why some would maybe prefer weather related posts only plus there are specific threads for non weather chat) Personally I come on this forum to read about the weather...that could be daily reports, outlooks, how it’s affecting everyone’s daily life with regards to the garden, travel, employment and I love looking at the pictures of anything weather related from all the UK and Ireland. Let’s be honest here - Tom is going nowhere. He loves the weather and won’t find a better place than this forum to talk about it. (I’m sure he has been active recently ) I look forward to reading all your future weather posts Tom and wish you the best of health. Getting back to the weather...so glad to see many reports of rain in here! My aunts garden down there has been like a desert for months. More rain today and without even looking I’m sure it will be at least 20c as always! Also very jealous of the hot Summers you all get! Have a good day everyone and I look forward to reading all your weather reports/looking at pictures this Autumn and Winter! All the best David

The rules are more relaxed in regional threads well that’s been the impression, it seems SE thread has always received more scrutiny, perhaps because the people are more interesting. There’s opportunity to discuss wider daily going ons alongside weather. I feel you are being a bit of a misery guts... forcing people away like so many have, self expression is important and human, more difficult to see on virtual space we’re more than blank profiles, none of this rigid nonsense do you want it to be ‘dead’ and soulless in here? People who moderate need to do a better job and focus on what actually needs dealing with.. and Tom is certainly not someone you need looking at. as for lots of thunder and lightening not sure what part of town you were in!! Although it did give as much as we had seen all year, which does not say a lot. Quite a good weather day shame there’s been so little. In dry slot right now but more heavy PPN gathering to SW/W.

Big undercutter here, -8c poised in Norway.

GFS 12z going for quite cool conditions around day 10 onwards . Not often you see a low in the Atlantic move west towards the USA they usually head east towards the uk , very strange run .

Lovely autumn day out there, breezy, sunny spells, the ground smells damp and there are conkers everywhere. Allotment is sodden and some things are going a bit yellow due to being 'over-watered' yesterday. I'd just like to quickly say that I too enjoy the relaxed atmosphere of the forum and I, like many people, enjoy the occasional saucy or tongue-in-cheek provocative post and banter. Within reason, no-one should be bounced off a forum because because their humour, experiences or viewpoint are different to someone else. Peace.

https://www.spaceweather.com/ THE SOLAR WIND IS HERE: A minor stream of solar wind flowing from a hole in the sun's atmosphere is buffeting Earth's magnetic field. This is not causing a geomagnetic storm, but it is sparking some nice equinox auroras around the Arctic Circle. Browse the realtime photo gallery for the latest sightings. Aurora alerts: SMS Text. A SUMMER WITHOUT SUNSPOTS: Could northern summer 2019 go down in history as "the summer without sunspots"? From June 21st until Sept 22nd, the sun was blank more than 89% of the time. During the entire season only 6 tiny sunspots briefly appeared, often fading so quickly that readers would complain to Spaceweather.com, "you've labeled a sunspot that doesn't exist!" (No, it just disappeared.) Not a single significant solar flare was detected during this period of extreme quiet. The sun on Sept. 22, 2019--as blank as a billiard ball. Credit: NASA/SDO This is a sign that Solar Minimum is underway and probably near its deepest point. For 2019 overall (January through September), the sun has been blank 72% of the time, comparable to annual averages during the century-class Solar Minimum of 2008 (73%) and 2009 (71%). The current Solar Minimum appears to be century-class as well, meaning you have to go back to the beginnning of the 20th century to find lulls in solar activity this deep.

This is a very sad evening to see @TomSE12 leaving. I thoroughly enjoy reading his posts in the morning, SE historical weather and the detailed discussions with Mr Currie. To think that someone with such humour, knowledge, compassion for everyone else and and thoroughly brilliant writing style is being forced of this forum is perhaps a sad reflection of the wider world we now live in. This forum will be a duller and much less well informed place with Tom’s leaving. Such a shame!

Keep posting Tom dam you! I like reading your posts first thing in the morning with a touch of everything in them - a bit of humour, silly graphics and updated daily forecasts and historical pieces. I don't care what anybody says on here that post made the other day (I know the one which riled me) really is in the tiny minority (you haven't upset other regular female posters)...you're an asset to the SE thread so in the immortal words of KC and the Sunshine Band 'please don't go'... anyway we've all got to stick together to get through another much anticipated winter 2019/20 with great expectations only to be let down again and the hunt switches to the prozac again

I've just noticed, looking at that 2nd Feb.2009 Croydon snowfall clip, that Southern Region's Information Screens, had 2nd Feb 2008 on them. Oh dear Southern Region, perhaps it was the "wrong type of snow" and got into the electrics of East Croydon's Information system!! The bitter cold pool responsible for this epic snow event can be traced back to N.W.Russia, a few days earlier. 00z Fri. 30th Jan. 2009 00z Sat.31st Jan.2009 12z Sat.31st Jan.2009 The bitter air was about to arrive, the catalyst for delivering this was a strong rise of Pressure, over Scandinavia. I can vividly remember coming home from work in Croydon, via Bromley, on the Saturday evening. Bromley Council's Gritting Dept. had obviously. "had the word", from the Met.Office. I was amazed at the amount of grit that had been spread on the Borough's roads. The air at that stage, was beginning to get that Continental stinging tingle on the skin, as the Temps., began to fall. Those Members that looked at the Met. Office Fax Charts backed then, will remember that they called the event, correctly. A couple of Days out their Fax Charts depicted the "tell-tale" barbed trough line, straight down the Thames. Tremendous piece of Forecasting, at that range. They are much maligned on occasion but this time, they had it "spot on." Confirmation of the date of the arrival of the "Thames Streamer" event, overnight 1st/2nd Feb. 2009, can be seen on these Meteociel archive charts, below: 00z Sun.1st Feb.2009 12z Sun.1st.Feb.2009 00z Mon.2nd Feb.2009 Sunday, dawned fairly bright but it started to feel bitterly cold and the advanced troops of this particular "Beast from the East", had started to peck away at our Eastern Coastline, delivering some early wintry flurries. I was at work in Croydon on that Sunday and we had a Snow Shower, around Lunchtime. Although fairly heavy, it wasn't enough to lay down a covering. The Radar returns from the Thanes Estuary which had looked promising, started to look less so and shower activity transferred further South over our Region, perhaps as the flow turned N.E., temporarily. But the Lunchtime Snow Shower, was just a small "Hors D'oeuvres" to the main event which was expected to start later. I made my way back to Lee, via Bromley and the Temperature felt bitter with pavements starting to ice up. Cloud to the East of Bromley, looked to be building up. As I boarded the 261 Bus for Lee, the first few snowflakes were starting to fall. When the Bus reached Lee there was already a slight covering on the ground. Crossing the road adjacent to the South Circular and looking away Eastwards, down that road, the Eastern Horizon was full of that welcoming, "orange glow". Just after I got indoors, a succession of heavy Snow Showers arrived. The Meteociel archive chart, bottom left, depicts the peak of the "Thames Streamer" event and close to the time of the Thunder/Snow, that myself, Steve M. and the surprised guy in that YouTube clip from near Dartford, experienced. It was still snowing at around 7/8 AM. on that Monday Morning, 2nd Feb.2009. It was later to be reinforced by some further Snow, tracking N.W., out of France. This did turn sleety later in the Day, as some warmer upper air arrived. But not before a covering of 6 inches had been laid down. That is a very respectable amount for my location, in the extreme South of the Lewisham Borough. I think I'll be lucky to witness such a potent "Thames Streamer" event, during the rest of my Lifetime. Fingers crossed for all of our Members that live in the Eastern Thames Corridor, that one turns up this Winter!! Regards, Tom.

What is going on with gfs 12z!!puts us in the heart of winter from early october❄?!!disrupting lows and a block to the north east!!

With a 75mb spread in SLP and an 18C spread in T850s, one could hardly refer to the GEFS 06Z ensembles as 'tightly knit bunch'...It all looks like a forecaster's nightmare...? Not suggesting any link between now and December, but I did see two hedgehogs behaving strangely, yesterday!

It would be good to draw a line under the current discussions regarding Tom's posts and the wider issue of content and moderation in this Regional thread. As a regular contributor and moderator, here's my take. The vast majority of Tom's posts contain weather related comment/forecasts as well as wider chat about Tom's life and on that basis are acceptable in here. I am not aware of any posts from Tom that have been deleted and he is welcomed to continue posting. If anyone believes the occasional post (or comment within) from Tom is inappropriate, then please use the report button and the moderation team will take a look. Reading back, there have been some mixed comments over the last 48 hours about the moderation in this thread stifling enjoyment. I have to say I'm not seeing that and thoroughly enjoy the banter and humour and happen to feel there is a relaxed atmosphere with relaxed moderation in here - but I accept that others may see things differently. So as Lauren says above, if you think otherwise and have thoughts on how we can improve what we do in any way, please use the Private Forum to contact us. Your thoughts are always very welcomed. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/171-contact-the-forum-team-private-forum/ Thank you.

Aye knocker, scatter past T120 is literally all-over-the-place; following a day or two when the Op was on the warm end of the pack, it's now very much at the opposite extreme...? Far too many 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' for my liking...MOOB!

@TomSE12 I have got a temporary filling that should have been replaced 14 months ago but cannot afford to, a big chunk came out the other day and i am dreading the pain when it gets worse, its also caused me to chew on the other side of mouth and now have another dental problem (probably another extraction), this original one is going to be even worse than before i had the filling because they drilled hard before, its a wisdom tooth, don't know if you can have Codeine, i took Ibuprofen, codeine, paracetamol and caffeine all at overdose levels it was that bad, finally got an emergency dental appointment - if you can't have codeine, have caffeine with the paracetamol if you can, but don't do it via coffee or Red Bull or anything because that could make your teeth worse, have the actual tablets of paracetamol @ caffeine together.

A very welcome 8mm of rain here yesterday and after a morning of light showers it looks - from the radar - that the sunny spells are now beefing the showers up this afternoon. The radar nicely shows two distinct lines of showers across the country, swinging into our Region from the SW. And as Froze says above, temps not too bad so far this week - currently 20.2C here.

Some lovely charts on show this morning if cold and frost is what you like!!shame it isnt November or December!!lets hope we continue to see such charts churned out heading into late october and a sluggish polar vortex!!

Next week is going to be tricky because much depends how, and if, Lorenzo interacts with the jet So, according to the gfs, by T144 there is now a major trough over Europe with a northerly feed and a conduit across the Atlantic under the Greenland block along which troughs can travel with Lorenzo lurking to the south Over the next 48 hours it develops thus which basically boils down to continuing unsettled but certainly not without clearer spells. But best left here considering the opening sentence

For a change the North Atlantic 300mb and surface analysis for midnight A murky start to the day for most areas with plenty of showery rain still around in the south, where it will remain quite breezy for a time, and southern Scotland and northern England. This will tend to die out through the day but persisting to some extent in Scotland and north east England. Sunny intervals will develop so generally a tad pleasanter than of late as the myriad of troughs/fronts clear away to the east. But by dusk the next frontal system will bring more continuous moderate rain into N. Ireland and patchy stuff into Wales and the south west of England The moderate rain will sweep across the country through this evening and overnight as the frontal system moves rapidly east, with some quite heavy pulses, probably more concentrated in the N/NW near the triple point. Frequent showers in the wake of the cold front The frontal rain will clear Thursday morning leaving the country within the circulation of the low pressure now centred to the west thus a day of sunshine and squally showers Over Thursday night and through Friday the quite complex low meanders slowly north east resulting in another day day of sunshine and squally showers This is the NH profile by midday Saturday which illustrates the cheeky trough that has sneaked around the top of the Greenland block. And on the surface a very transient ridge over the UK as our low continues to drift NE but another system is waiting in the wings to the south west. Again a sunshine and showers day. By Sunday the aforementioned trough is sinking south to phase with our trough as high pressure ridges into the Arctic and on the surface the system to the south west has tracked north east to bring rain and strong winds, predominately to England and Wales.

I haven’t a clue what set all the problems off. Thought there was a much more relaxed attitude on say this type of thread than the Models etc. Always been general banter going on. If someone like Tom wants to write at length so be it. At least he used paragraphs so you could easily skip anything that was not of immediate interest. Hopefully Tom after a while will feel able to recommence his input.

@TomSE12 Shooters Hill buddy... Take a break. Come back at the right time when shooters hill is on full blur !

18z GFS at 156 Cold polar air engages over the UK Also ECM & GFS going for a big phase shift in the states with the East heading much colder post day 8

@TomSE12 please do not go, I love your posts, and this thread will be a lot less happy, if you decide to stop. Please reconsider, if somebody has upset you, block them and report them, don't give them the satisfaction, on a weather note, wet

Taken viewing over Braydon Water in Great Yarmouth. This wasn't me Credit: Simon Luckman. A bit of a strange one from my perspective, nice cloudscapes. First rain came through and no thunder, an hour later some fairly frequent thunder from a cell north of me. Then the cell that went over us didn't thunder at all during the heavy rain. It passed and then I heard a couple of rumbles. Later when it got dark thinking that it was all over, heard another rumble and then hit by heavy rain. No lightning seen today.

An exceptionally wet day in ‘middle’ London over 40mm and easily wettest day of year here. More falling now... @TomSE12 to hell with with them people! Keep on posting we’ve lost too many, we need you!

Thanks for those very kind words All Weather but I've made up my mind about not posting any longer. As I stated, I've been a Member since 2005 and to my mind have made a lot of Weather contributions, to this Thread, the number of Posts I've registered suggests that. Latterly, posting up my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecasts, for our Region. I still suffer from fatigue, after my Brain Haemorrhage/Stroke and posting in detail, can be quite tiring for me. When I came out of Hospital in February 2016, after being hospitalised for 4 and a half Months, I'd even forgotten that I was a long-standing Member of NW. I had to teach myself how to use a Computer again but thankfully this self-professed "Technophobe" has regained most of his IT skills!! But no more posting on the S.E.Thread, now. I'm afraid to say that over the past few Years, there "reeks" a sense of double standards, about some of the material in Posts, allowed in this Thread. Regards, Tom.

I got one am utterly dismayed that once again a regular enthusiastic poster has been forced to remove himself from the forum. I for on absolutely loved @TomSE12 total light hearted jovial witterings that always brought a smile to my face in the mornings be it in the winter summer spring or autumn. There is something wrong here when people are corrected of the swerve so slightly off topic and dont stay on weather only ramblings. I did see a post a few days back having a go at Tom. I thought it was total imbyism. That's the problem we have lost so many good active genuine posters because of this and I am cross. I adore the weather and u can see my liked values and post as much as I can but occasionally we need to stay the other side of the fence. At no point has anything Tom has said could be considered abusive, just happy witterings of a man happy to be alive. And I remember Tom's snow cup it was so much fun. Remember that people fun.......

Don't worry Mapantz, after comments made on this Thread the other Day, I won't be posting on this part of the Forum, any longer. I've been a Member of NW since Jan.2005 and think I've contributed plenty of Weather related posts, in that time. I've put together many posts, regarding Snow Streamers in S.E.England. I've been lucky enough to strike up a friendship with local Meteorologist Ian Currie. Mr.Currie was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts with our Region and kindly allow me to reproduce many photos on this Forum, from his excellent County Weather Books. Mr.Currie even offered Members a reduced rate, to buy a copy of his Books but I'm not sure there were any Members who took up his very generous offer. Last Summer, I was accused of laying "guilt trips" by a Member who I think has a personal grudge against me but the less said about that the better!! In the time I've been a Member, I've "clocked up" 6,308 Posts and 6,872 Likes, so perhaps SOME Members appreciated my Posts. But no more, I've had enough now!! I'd like to apologise to the Moderators in OUR Region, if I offended anybody, it wasn't meant. But I've decided I can no longer continue to post on here. I will now confine my Posting, to "Hosting" Fantasy Competitions, in the Lounge part of the Forum, where I've gathered around me Members who seem to appreciate my contributions, to the Sports section of this Forum. I think DAMI was right in her assertion last Night, you're not allowed to have a sense of humour, in here. Sorry but I find some of these Weather related Threads, way too serious and "precious." Obviously my madcap sense of humour, isn't appreciated in all quarters, of this Thread. I'm sure those Members will appreciate my decision to retreat, from the S.E.Thread. Interesting to note that exactly 4 Years ago, I was about to be "woken up" from a 10 Day Hospital induced Coma, after experiencing a Brain Haemorrhage/Stroke. Perhaps that Brain trauma sent me more "gaga", than I was before my illness and this 64 Year Old Brontophobic became even more of a Brontosaurus/Dinosaur, in his mindset. Again I'd like to apologise for any offence caused by my "wacky", sense of humour. I'd like to thank all those Members who voiced approval of my Posts, over the Years. At least some of the Brontophiles around the Region, got to hear a little thunder today. Perhaps you'll hear some more during the rest of Autumn, you are due some after suffering two very "thunderless" Summers!! I'd like to wish fellow Chionophiles, around our Region, plenty of cold and snowy Weather, this coming Winter. Regards, Tom.

Hi E.E., Yes you are in pretty good "Thames Streamer" territory there. But this event behaved a little differently, than the norm. Your near neighbour Paul Sherman, helped write a superb analysis of the event. It explained why those parts of S.E.Essex that normally do very well in "T/S" situations, only had "quote", a covering of Polystyrene Balls whereas areas way to the W.S.W, such as the Guildford area, had around a foot of snow. That was very unusual, as that location is a long way from the source of fuel for the "T/S", the Thames Estuary. Can you remember what the amount of snowfall was, that you received from that "T/S" event, E,E.? Regards, Tom.

Yes mate, the ECM mean also toying with a pressure rise towards the end of next week, and warming temos.... Perhaps low pressure at this stage becoming anchored to the NW again... So perhaps some rain pushing SE at times towards the end of the run! All along way off and subject to much change with all the current going ons though.

Deepest snow cover we've had here on the Essex coast since Feb 1991...little wind but the snow fell for sometime on a stalling occluded front trying to make it's way eastwards against that huge Siberian High, I have to say that's the most on tenterhooks I've been whilst on this site whilst watching the models it really was a case of will the Atlantic front makes its way east or remain static over the east of England keeping the cold/very cold air, 'will it won't it' model watching episode went on for a few days - 6" of snow here and the first 10 days or so saw the average mean below zero and so I thought the first very cold February in yonks was on it's way, wrong! the 2nd half of the month became very mild and Feb 2012 turned out near average in an otherwise quite mild winter.

This is going on so anything post t120 needs to be scrutinized with great care

Feels rather like August and earlier this month here - rain kept weakening as it moved-in from the west.

Regardless of how many posts a person has made, personal digs aren't on, although on the same basis, just because someone has less posts they shouldn't be considered to be less valued. And publically calling people out, as you've both done to one another now really is counter-productive, The report button is there if anyone spots a post which they believe is problematic, the team deal will then look into it as quickly as possible, then things are less end up getting out of hand as they perhaps did yesterday. Lauren did invite you to talk to the team in the team section, but hey ho. Anyway, no-one has been silenced out of fear here, there was a bit of a coming together last night due to what looks like some ill feeling between a couple of members and a single political post being removed. That's it - Tom has even posted above you explaining his reasoning. The team seldom need to moderate in this thread, and pretty much all of the moderation in here occurs if a post is reported, so it's hard to understand where you feel 'over moderation' can be occurring on that basis. The controversy in this thread several years ago (6?) was a shame, but it's done and dusted. Since that fairly difficult time there have been little to no issues in this or any of the other regional threads, so again i'm unsure why you're bringing it up in this context. Anyway, once again - please use the team forum or pm to continue with this conversation, as I'm quite sure others coming in here to chat about the weather and what have you have little to no interest in this stuff.

The GEFS 6z mean longer term is suggesting a NW / SE - N / S split with some decent spells of weather across the S / SE... and for those of a cold persuasion there is a bit of interest from the 6z members, as there was from the 6z operational.

First hefty shower cleared earlier, and radar shows more to come. Our clay soil is absorbing the rain and the vegetation generally appear to be coming back to something approaching verdant green after a few weeks of increasing wilting.

Today is a day for watching for rain. On the Met Office, it states that there is a 60% chance of light rain by 10 am and 50% chance of rain by 1pm. If it does not arrive, I am going to have to do a rain dance.

While it feels a tad surreal to me to be currently talking about Lorenzo interacting with the atlantic jet

Apart from the extent of very warm air, over the southern part of mainland Europe, nothing at T+384 (GFS 00Z) looks all that out-of-the-ordinary for early to mid October...? And the GEFS 00Z ensembles suggest that, Blighty-wise, everything is still up in the air:

Looking at the GEFS 0z perhaps we are not finished with summer yet!!!..there are some plumey early october members!!

The ecm has Lorenzo being absorbed by the Atlantic upper trough resulting in a very complex arrangement affecting the jet with some downstream amplification of the subtropical high Of course this is subject to change

Lots of lightning and thunder, and heavy rain today. Weather reports are always welcome. Stuff about the wife's cooking less so. I am sorry that I have upset you Tom, but this is a weather forum. I have had to learn to abide by the new rules, like everyone else.

And Greenland blocking much more robust on this run as well

Thanks for those very kind words, Pete. I'm off to spend more time with Sebastian and the Horse Racing Competitions. Harry Kane's Champion's League "Fantasy" goals will be in the capable hands, of Callum (KIRKCALDY WEATHER), from now on. Regards, Tom.

Thanks for those very kind words, Jimmyh. I'd completely forgotten about the "Snow Depth Cup". Now that was something I did put a lot of effort into, when I was TOMSE20 and lived in Anerley, S.E.London. I had Members names on sheets of A4, spread across my Lounge floor and it was surprising that my Brain didn't "blow up", then!! Regards, Tom.

Yes Ben, think you mean sleet event. Tom, I for one enjoy reading your posts, not sure what occured days ago but don't let these posters ruin it for you or for us. Please keep up your posts.

We'll certainly miss your input,Tom...I still remember your posts from December 2010, when we were both domiciled in Anerly(sp?) and when blizzards were a'raging. How time flies?

I haven't really commented on this thread thus far however firstly in terms of absolutes no-one can say 100% yes or 100% no- Probability wise the fact the UK's weather patterns are loosely based around the same cyclical reoccurring patterns then should the status quo of the lower atmosphere / upper atmosphere & thermal dynamics all stay the same its reasonable to assume that over a period of say 200 years if there have been 4 or 5 periods say of these consecutive cold winters at a 1:50 year rate then within the next 50 years a run will occur again. Based on statistics & frequency you could calculate the exact probability. The reality here is probably in the next 50 year a slight increase in probability due to the current favourable changes over the pole in terms of increasing geopotential heights & reduced sea ice forcing > This is of course a broad statement however just aligning this increase towards the general theme of 'supporting UK cold then its only fair to say that an incremental increase in probability is on offer... What could become more probable though is more extremes of cold & warm mitigating the overall net cold - so monthly CET values may become the chosen method rather than seasonal cold.... Best S