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The GFS is going downhill fast ... here's proof ...

The rain band is just clearing here and a better effort than I was expecting (and GFS forecasting yesterday) with nearly 8mm of rain. 08.35

Noticed this quite impressive lenticular formation this evening - rushed the camera settings - so a bit fuzzy.

More sunshine than rain today! First time I have said that in a while! Very blustery currently - gusts to 40mph. Quite a few yachts rocking side to side - very choppy out on the water. One or two Lenticular clouds about currently. Really looking forward to a sunny and dry day on Saturday! (Hopefully that does not change) Outlook wise still hoping/praying for a couple of warm/hot sunny days this month - live in hope!

An interesting chart produced by Weatherquest showing the percentage chance of anticyclonic weather in the UK. February and June stand out from the pack and - make a note in the diary - the best day for holding a bbq is the likely to be the 16th June. This graphic highlights periods of the year where anticyclonic conditions (i.e. high pressure) tends to be more prevalent, on average, based on Lamb Weather Types calculated by the Climatic Research Unit at UEA. Source: Weatherquest. Twitter @danholley_

@Northernlights @ciel @bigsnow https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-49551044 "Wild geese change routes to cope with climate change" Really heavy rain last night and showery so far today, tonight still looking pretty chilly.

On the topic of geese, I had a very brief visit to Montrose yesterday and was advised that the Pink-footed species had arrived along with 1000+ Canada geese, which is interesting as I understood they, the Canada geese, were a mainly sedentary species. A downhill day weatherwise here. After a bright start, now grey, with a spit of rain and cool. Yesterday evening's sunset - looking NE.

They come here from Iceland and Greenland so an early migration most likely a reflection of how the weather and feeding conditions are there rather than here. Cold in those areas is not always good for cold here and likewise warmth there does not mean warmth here. Rather cool here today. Wonder if the highest tops have any snow this morning?

Lots more geese today.See quite a bit of fresh snow in Svalbard.Possibly a trigger for sending them south although a north wind this afternoon helps as well.Very changeble today blue skies one minute then very dark moody skies with showery rain as it is just now Definitely cooler at 9c

Snow showers tonight over the Scottish mountains, from about 900m. above sea level, possibly even lower. The cold wind has put me in the mood for winter, I wonder what it'll be like this year.

Strong winds are now affecting the west and north coasts with gusts in Milovaig touching 70mph.

GEFS 06Z ensembles hint at something a tad plumey, two or three days' after mid-month...But we mustn't get over-excited just yet!

A covering of snow in Longyearbyen.... Winter is coming

I guess she could have remained quiet, get to have relatively peaceful teen years/early adulthood. Barring that, she could sugar coat her message, so as not to irk the delicate folk who just can't handle the reality of climate change She could have taken the easy path and flown to the US, certainly more comfortable than 2 weeks in a cramped racing yacht. But she doesn't do those things. She chooses to speak up and make something of her adolescence. She rises above the torrents of abuse that pathetic climate deniers and right wing commentators hurl at her, and focuses only on her message. She sticks by her principles and refuses to fly, despite the difficulty and time consuming nature of transatlantic boat travel. But I suppose this is simply par for the course for the climate denier community. It's the same style of attack aimed at anybody that speaks up about climate change. As this forum shows, it's still a highly effective tool. Anyone that becomes a prominent figure is attacked in every way they can be whether it's personal insults, conspiracy theories spread through the usual denier blogs or general condescending ridicule. They are the main avenues available for people that know they're in the wrong. At all costs, her actual message must be avoided, lest her critics have to actually tackle some scientific realities

And yet what do you have to say about what she says, her arguments? Nothing.

Not a bad Gfs 6z operational, sure it's a mixed bag with some low / high pressure / ridging so it's certainly not full blown unsettled and there's even a hint of a mini-plume or two!

I think there's even some potential for a mini-plume in there too, karl? Not a bad run anyways. As far as snow goes: wake me up when we're lying under sub -10C T850s!

The Gfs 0z operational shows a scandi high later in the run.

(reposting this table of entries now that absolute deadline has passed) Table of entries for September 2019 ____________________________________________ __ order of entries in brackets __ L stands for late, number with L gives number of late days, then order of those entries __ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster _______________ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster 19.0 __200.0___ Lettucing gutted (2) _______ 14.2 __ 82.0 ___ JeffC (9) 16.5 __ 91.0 ___ syed2878 (35) ___________ 14.2 __ 67.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine (21) 16.3 __ ----- ___ Earthshine (49) ___________ 14.2 __ ----- ___ Jonathan F. (28) 15.9 __ 60.0 ___ Polar Gael (8) ____________ 14.2 __ 73.2 ___ 1989-2018 average 15.8 __ 34.2 ___ Roger J Smith (10) ________ 14.1 __ 67.0 ___ emmett garland (22) 15.5 __ 46.2 ___ CheesepuffScott (11) _______14.1 __ ----- ___ Beet (45) 15.2 __ 20.0 ___ Blast from the Past (L1-2) ___14.1 __ 88.0 ___ Stationary Front (52) 15.1 __ 47.9 ___ ChrisBell not the wxman (14) _14.1 __ ----- ___ Damianslaw (59) 15.0 __ 75.0 ___ EdStone (31) _____________ 14.0 __ 50.0 ___ East Lancs Rain (30) 15.0 __150.0___ stewfox (L3-1) _____________14.0 __ ----- ___ Quicksilver1989 (50) 14.9 __ ----- ___ dancerwithwings (20) _______ 14.0 __ 77.2 ___ 1981-2010 average 14.9 __ 49.0 ___ DAVID SNOW (42) ________ 13.9 __ 76.0 ___ virtualsphere (26) 14.8 __ 64.0 ___ stargazer (12) ____________ 13.9 __ 66.0 ___ Mulzy (54) 14.8 __ ----- ___ Mark Bayley (32) __________ 13.9 __ 95.0 ___ Don (55) 14.8 __ ----- ___ Matty007 (L1-1) ___________ 13.9 __ 69.0 ___ davehsug (57) 14.7 __103.8___ Kirkcaldy Weather (6) ______ 13.8 __ 69.8 ___ Feb1991Blizzard (33) 14.7 __ ----- ___ Relativistic (16) ____________13.8 __ 67.0 ___ weather-history (36) 14.7 __ ----- ___ Man with Beard (41) ________13.8 __ 85.0 ___ Daniel* (40) 14.6 __ 58.0 ___ bobd29 (7) _______________13.8 __ 80.0 ___ Born from the Void (47) 14.6 __ 92.0 ___ jonboy (25) _______________13.7 __ 85.0 ___ philglossop (15) 14.6 __ 98.0 ___ coldest winter (43) _________ 13.7 __ 77.0 ___ timmytour (34) 14.6 __ 85.0 ___ J10 (56) _________________ 13.6 __ 97.0 ___ I Remember Atlantic 252 (19) 14.5 __ 45.0 ___ Leo97t (13) ______________ 13.6 __ ----- ___ ProlongedSnowLover (23) 14.5 __ ----- ___ summer blizzard (24)________13.6 __ 95.0 ___ Norrance (46) 14.5 __ 80.0 ___ The PIT (37) ______________13.5 __ ----- ___ sundog (29) 14.5 __ 40.0 ___ Freeze (58) _______________13.4 __ ----- ___ Kentish Man (51) 14.4 __ 72.1 ___ Midlands Ice Age (5) ________13.2 __ 74.0 ___ weather26 (1) 14.4 __ ----- ___ snowray (18) ______________ 13.0 __108.0___brmbrmcar (27) 14.4 __ ----- ___ Summer Sun (38) ___________12.9 __ ----- ___ Walsall Wood Snow (44) 14.4 __ 85.0 ___ Reef (48) _________________12.9 __200.0___ Thundershine (53) 14.4 __ ----- ___ Duncan McAlister ( L1-4 ) ____ 12.8 __ 56.0 ___ Godber1 (39) 14.4 __ 90.0 ___ DR(S)NO _ (L2-1) __________12.4 __129.0___ Let It Snow! (4) 14.3 __ 68.0 ___ seaside60 (L1-3) ___________11.7 __156.0___ SteveB (26) 14.3 __ 77.0 ___ consensus forecasts _______ 14.2 __110.0___ nn2013 (3) ________________ 65 forecasts (59 on time, 4 are one day late, one each for two and three days late) __ consensus 14.3. ====================================================================== EWP entries in order 200 LG, Thun ..156 Ste .. 150 stew (+3d) .. 129 LIS .. 110 nn .. 108 brm .. 103.8 KW .. 98 cw .. 97 IRAtl .. 95 Norr, Don 92 jon .. 91 syed .. 90 DRS (+2d) .. 88 SF .. 85 phil, dan, Reef, J10 .. 82 Jeff .. 80 Pit, BFTV .. 77.2 89-18 .. 77 tim con .. 76 vir ... 75 EdS .. 74 wx26 .. 73.2 81-10 .. 72.1 MIA .. 69.8 Feb91 .. 69 dave .. 68 sea60 (+1d) .. 67 DRL, emm, w-h .. 66 .. mul 64 star .. 60 PG .. 58 bob .. 56 Godb .. 50 ELR .. 49 DSN .. 47.9 cbnot .. 46.2 CPS .. 45 Leo .. 40 Freeze 34.2 RJS .. 20 BFTP (+1d) __ 47 forecasts, 2 are one day late, one each at 2, 3 days late __ consensus is 77 mm.

Good grief the irony of this first line is remarkable, the only people and organisations driving an agenda that is wrong are climate change deniers its as simple as that. The reason why Greta is protesting about climate change is because she believes governments aren't doing enough, not because her parents forced her to. The fact is that there have been many trolls have been targeting her appearance and aspergers because they can't win an argument about climate change. Did you not read the article Ed linked?

Just looked through the missing person's list for Abaco - must be more than 1000 names. If it had happened in the US, it would have had 24/7 coverage. What is wrong with our media?

I've now idea, bigsnow. There's quite a lot of folklore around migratory pattern of geese. I suppose they must have decided weather conditions were favourable at the time.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html The discrepancy grows larger still. GFS now predicts a decent strength of Nino walker cell configuration with enhanced rising motion over the Central Pacific, yet it shows no classical response to this over the N. Atlantic and Europe. Well, the 06z briefly tried but that rapidly fell down and the 12z hasn't even given the Euro height rises a go to begin with. Meanwhile, the 00z ECM shows exactly the sort of pattern shift that I'd expect in the D8-D10 range... if it wasn't for a lot of tropical activity taking shape in the N. Atlantic. This inevitably lowers confidence. Either this is an impressive spot of an unusual pattern development relating to Atlantic basin tropical activity, or GFS is making a right mess of how they influence the planetary waves. Going to be really interesting to see which way things go.

Pink-footed geese have arrived 2 weeks earlier than usual at the Montrose Basin - around 100 have been counted.

You're right, karl, it's so good it has THREE days' maxes at 25C! And one of them might even be a Tuesday!

The Best Gfs run of today so far (not saying much) but at least for southern uk the 12z operational shows a gradual return to something resembling summer. High pressure and temps warming up into the 20's celsius!!

Could this be the start of something better: Atlantic depressions and winds from a SW'erly quarter? What could be better?

Not at all Pete Extension Rebillions main goal is for the UK to be zero carbon before 2025. do you know what that would entail?. Thats why people do not take Rebellion seriously they are seen as a inconvenience. once people start thinking that then any hope of tackling the problem is finished by the way in answer the question above the ECI unit in the uk as stated that to achieve that goal Flying would need to be scraped over 30 million cars would need to be removed and all gas boilers in the Uk would need to be removed all in 6 years.

But a lot of options lie between the kind of measures which are deemed (by right-wing commentators, at least) 'unrealistic' -- though they might actually work -- and the type of easily-reachable targets that make no difference (other than PR-wise) to the problem whatsoever...? And many of those options would rely almost entirely on new technology: wind-/wave-power and thermovoltaics come to mind...

Indeed Ed, I noticed that too.

i think one thing theyve overlooked or simply ignored..... yes its been wet, but the rains were heavy, with around 2/3 of the summer days being dry, meaning the rains that fell came in only 1/3 of the other days. this is in contrast to say 2012 when around 2/3 of days were wet.

Interestingly you have to go all the way back to the 92-96 period to three cooler than average (1981-2010) September's in a row.

Another dreich damp day with drizzle and low cloud and currently 15c. More unseen gesse overhead today heading south probably not local as I thought yesterday as another farmer has heard and seen the same.He reckons they are two weeks early.Are they forecasting an early winter?

Morning all, Up early again. Consecutive Posts, where is everybody?? Managed to escape from the Care Home, sorry Colette. Below is a link to MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, for those who don't wish to read my analysis for our Region. Chris Fawkes presenting: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49558323 Chris began his Forecast by mentioning Hurricane DORIAN, the second strongest Atlantic Hurricane ever recorded. Only Hurricane Alan, in 1980, being stronger. After giving the Island of Grand Bahama a battering on Monday, H.D. is now starting to weaken. Chris then went on to show the following caption, for the U.K. - NEXT FEW DAYS - Rain at times. Breezy. Temps, at or below average. Today sees a bit of early Morning brightness for the S.E. but tending to cloud over. Staying dry and fairly bright though. a Max.Temp. for London of around 22c. In the overnight period, a Cold Front will track S.E., across our Region, taking with it some rain. A wet start to Wednesday then for the S.E., with cooler, fresher air following from the W., perhaps with an odd shower. Max. Temps. for London down quite noticeably to 17c. On Thursday, our Region looks to stay dry under a weak Ridge of High Pressure, this H.P. situated close to the Azores. Some cloud around with a Max. Temp. for London, around 18c. Another Cold Front tracks S.E. across our Region on Friday, so another Day of "see-sawing" temperatures. Rain associated with the Front, pushing through our area with a Max. Temp. , on the cool side at 17c for London. Quite a chilly start for the S.E. on Saturday. As we'll sit closest to High Pressure, the best of the Weather for our Region, with some sunshine and Max. Temps back up to around 20c, for the London area. At the end of his Forecast, Chris returned to Hurricane DORIAN and the remaining uncertainty, over it's track. Over the Weekend, H.D. then turns into a normal area of Low Pressure and accelerates eastwards across the Atlantic, ending up close to Iceland, in the early part of next Week with a trailing Cold Front, straddled across the U.K. That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Chris Fawkes. Some welcome rain around for the S.E. then and perhaps a little on the cool side, at times. Regards, Tom.

Very autumnal today with blustery showers not to cold at 15c maximum.A few geese flew over today probably ones that reside here all year but with the trees starting to take on their autumn colours its becoming seasonal very quickly. Fields too wet to take in any bales so greased tractor ,fed cattle and knapsnacked sprayed new seed size whin and broom bushes( a yearly task.) in the evening to save fences and having to chop them when they grow.

Clocks back next month

Have accompanied my Wife Colette to her place of work this Morning, a Residential Care Home in Chislehurst. Think she's planning to leave me there!! About to write an analysis of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, this broadcast with Nick Miller. For those that don't want to read my commentary, below is a BBC link to the Forecast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49535832 Nick began his Forecast by stating that this time last Week, we were saying goodbye to that hot, Continental air. This Week will see an Atlantic influence, dominate. Occasional dips in the Jet Stream will bring Low Pressure systems and associated Fronts, into the U.K. Our Region will be least affected, by these features, although we will see rain at some point, during the Week. Today, will remain dry for the S.E.,with sunny spells and Max.Temps reaching 22c, for the London area. Although Fronts will be crossing the U.K. on Tuesday, our Region will remain dry with Max.Temps., up a touch for the London area, at 23c/24c. Tuesday will likely be the warmest Day of the Week, for the S.E. On Wednesday a Cold Front will track across the S.E., bringing some welcome rain for gardens in the Region. After the early rain and passage of the Front, cooler, fresher air will "invade" our area, from the N.W. Max.Temps will be down to 20c, for the London area. A chilly start for the S.E. on Thursday but it will remain dry with Max.Temps., being on the cool side, at 19c, for London. On Friday, another Cold Front tracks S.E. towards our Region, bringing some fragmenting rain with it. Max.Temps., for the London area, around 20c. Nick then made reference to Hurricane DORIAN, there are still some big question marks over the behaviour of this feature. After H.D. moves W., it will then turn to the N. By next Weekend the remnants of this feature will accelerate across the Atlantic, as it's swept up by the Jet Stream, ending up near Iceland. Nick ended his Forecast by stating that, if this did occur, Weather impacts for the U.K. would be negligible compared to the awful events occurring over the Bahamas, at the moment. That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Nick Miller. Still a reasonable spell of Weather up and coming for our Region then, if not quite as settled and warm as expected, a few days ago. Regards, Tom.

The misinterpretation a lot of people make is that they think she is taking a swipe at people in general, when the fact is she is aiming at governments. If she went across the Atlantic in a private jet, politicians and the Daily Mail would have a meltdown about it and she is aware about this. So that is why she travelled by boat. It makes politicans take her climate change message more seriously. I think BP listed her as the main threat to the oil industry (there was a news article about this and will try and find it), so you can't say it's futile. Besides, what good is it to sit there and do nothing to press our governments? They were warned about it in the late 1980s and did little at all. It's only fair that such an issue should be scrutinised given the lack of progress. Doing all we can means sparking political movements into gear (as without a compliant government, progress cannot be made) so your statement sounds contradictory. In the end, yes combating climate change is difficult but I don't see any evidence that it will set us back 100 years given the technologies we are developing today. It's not easy but our generation don't want to be remembered as the generation that did nothing and want to leave a better future for children if we can, its as simple as that. Taking the approach above would do nothing to help things. Even if Greta's family benefited from the worldwide attention Greta has earned, this should in no way undermine her message.

And from the man himself...

THANK GOD......

I just do not get it... whether it be a small island like the Bahamas or mainland USA,it still should be newsworthy,it's loss of life for Christ sake's get a grip American's it's the same in the UK to some extent when there is a storm/named storm,sod the north but the south will be on the news. i do hope Josh is ok,please,please,please

And I'm the Archbishop of Canterbury!

i am suggesting that people and organisations are using the poor girl as cynical way to drive their agenda whether its right or wrong..by using Greta you and others fall into the trap that any criticism of a 16 year old girl is not allowed because she is a child with Asperger and people who say the contrary are bad and woe betide anyone who says anything nasty/hurtful or disagree with her because you should hang your heads in shame...therefore no debate or contract-diction is allowed. i don't like it one bit

Don't worry QS -- in another 30-years, most of us old farts'll be long-deid; and I just hope that, in the meantime, my generation doesn't entirely foook the planet...? Though, given the riches that the Big Oil routinely squirts over its paid-up deniers/stooges, I see little reason for optimism. Go Greta. The Planet needs you!

Yes, -2c isotherm into Scotland.

We shall see,hopefully the sniffing gets snuffed out! A proper Autumn is needed.. at least after the joke that was last Winter!

13.4 to the 1st 1.6c below the 61 to 90 average 2.0c below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________ Current high this month 13.4 to the 1st Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

I love how every thread on this forum eventually turns into a discussion about snow lol...