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Erm, no thank you. We've had enough plumes this year and want to look forward to some cooler and unsettled weather now. That said, I doubt summer is done with us yet.......

I'm more worried about the kids and adults who couldn't afford to get off the island, not someone who had a choice to go there or not.

So as we enter meteorological Autumn, a new thread for us to continue chatting about the weather and its impact here in the SE & EA Region. To start the new thread, a look back at the Met Office data for the last 3 Septembers. First of all the mean temperatures for the month confirm there should be plenty of warmth available for our Region: Mean Temps 2016 2017 2018 But rainfall is not so readily available and Sept in recent years has been below the long-term average: Actual rainfall 2016 2017 2018 Rainfall Anomaly 2016 2017 2018 Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps I don't know about everyone else, but in September I like to see a real mix of weather, from wet and windy to lovely sunny and warm days and a few misty mornings thrown in. We will have to see what Mother Nature decides for us this year.

deadly but beautiful

Confirmed as 17.1C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt Warmest August since 2004. Summer finishes on 16.27C, the joint 8th warmest of the last 30 years.

This should cheer you up a bit Don... Deep low pressure to the NW, and quite a cool and unsettled set up.... Look at those uppers over Greenland now... Gerrin very close to banging the drum hard for winter now.... Cold crisp days, and even colder nights!!! That's the hope anyway...

Try saying that to the Greensburg EF5 which took 20 minutes to cross a 20ft Highway

Thank you, very kind It’s been an exciting afternoon, weather wise in Prague. Had about 5 storms pass over or close by with some dramatic skies

Sunday 1st September Ec-gfs with ec still showing heights and some ridging over and w of uk with flow n of w; gfs has ridging further w and flatter flow over atlantic so flow almost w’ly which is a change as the last 2-3 days it had been pretty similar to ec Noaa(last eve) continues fairly similar to the chart ec shows, more so than gfs version; noaa been much like this for several days, even last wed much as last evening All in all no sign of heat returning and a nw-se split expected 6-10 days, less changeable in se and noaa 8-14 follows along similar lines. Now we are into hurricane season for n atlantic (one already looking like being caught up in the jet stream, the anomaly charts rarely (as mean outputs) rarely show these enormous areas of moisture and 500 mb vortexes, so caution for 2 months or so more so that usual, even over and above that for the hemisphere starting to go from summer to winter mode models already shown by k above

First pass in in. Pressure 925\926mb. Massive fall. Flight winds of 150kts. 4 surface winds in row over 140kts maxing at 158kts a full 20kts above a cat 5. Maybe Just maybe a cat 5 upgrade now in about 10mins

A quick look at the clusters for the end of the week confirms the likelihood of the amplification of the subtropical high and the ducking of the tough down the North Sea as being the best punt of the week Looking further afield The NOAA and EPS medium term mean anomalies are in pretty good agreement ,with the TPV over the pole and associated troughs Greenland/Europe. A strong westerly upper flow exiting NE North America, south of the Greenland trough, and around the slightly amplifying mid Atlantic subtropical high before diversifying and abating to some extent in the eastern Atlantic, courtesy of the European trough. This would suggest a SW/NE variation with the latter being more unsettled but temps generally below average No huge change in the ext period, perhaps a flatter flow across the Atlantic and thus more generally changeable with temps creeping up to be near average

Definitely not - we had mid 30s in the middle of September in 2016 (34c Gravesend) and 29.9c on the 1st October in 2011. Heat can still be a factor for another month or so. September is rarely that autumnal anyway, especially down south where maxima are regularly in the 20s.

Happy Autumn folks, Looking at the GEFS 0z mean / perturbations longer term there are signs of increasingly warm anticyclonic conditions, possibly another plume even, a return to summer?..hopefully! PS...I posted the charts in the last thread before it got closed!!

Doesn't the friction over land kill tropical cyclones? Subject : C2) Doesn't the friction over land kill tropical cyclones? Contributed by Chris Landsea (NHC) and Sim Aberson (HRD) No. During landfall, the increased friction over land acts - somewhat contradictory - to both decrease the sustained winds and also to increase the gusts felt at the surface (Powell and Houston 1996). The sustained (1 min or longer average) winds are reduced because of the dampening effect of larger roughness over land (i.e. bushes, trees and houses over land versus a relatively smooth ocean). The gusts are stronger because turbulence increases and acts to bring faster winds down to the surface in short (a few seconds) bursts. However, after just a few hours, a tropical cyclone over land will begin to weaken rapidly - not because of friction - but because the storm lacks the moisture and heat sources that the ocean provided. This depletion of moisture and heat hurts the tropical cyclone's ability to produce thunderstorms near the storm center. Without this convection,the storm rapidly fills. An early numerical simulation (Tuleya and Kurihara 1978) had shown that a hurricane making landfall over a very moist region (i.e. mainly swamp) so that surface evaporation is unchanged, intensification may result. However, a more recent study (Tuleya 1994) that has a more realistic treatment of surface conditions found that even over a swampy area a hurricane would weaken because of limited heat sources. Indeed, nature conducted this experiment during Andrew as the hurricane traversed the very wet Everglades, Big Cypress and Corkscrew Swamp areas of southwest Florida. Andrew weakened dramatically: peak winds decreased about 33% and the sea level pressure in the eye rose 19 mb (Powell and Houston 1996).

Their Christmas tree is up early...

The 1st of September leaves starting to change cooler to it won’t be long in till we are talking about wintery weather Scandi blocks and Greenland blocking see you all soon.. and the all important m4 .

Apologies to Malcolm, I didn't realise he was about to lock the old thread. So, here is a repeat of my Post for my interpretation of MeteoGroups extended Forecast, for our Region: Morning all, Up early again to take my medication. Now relaxing with a cuppa but was frustrated to find a "failed to record" messge against MeteoGroup's, early Morning Forecast. But thankfully it's already available on iPlayer. Here is the BBC link to the Forecast, with Nick Miller: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49535832 Nick began his Forecast stating that last Sunday we reached 33c, in our Region. Today, we'll only likely reach 21c in the S.E., as we commence 3 Months of Meteorological Autumn. So, "what a difference a Week makes, 168 little hours". Today, sees our Region join the the rest of the U.K., in a cool and fresh Polar Maritime N.W. flow. On the plus side, it should stay dry, with long sunny spells. So, "pinch but not too much punch". Overnight, quite a "punch" to those Min. Temps., down to around 8c for the London area. The new working Week begins dry for the S.E., with some cloud about, interspersed with sunny spells and with Max.Temps., recovering to 22c for the London area. Tuesday, sees more cloud around with a couple of Fronts approaching the S,E but as we are close to an area of High Pressure, our Region should stay largely dry with Max.Temps up to around 23c, for the London area. After recovering somewhat, Max.Temps will dip again as we head into Wednesday behind a passage of a Cold Front and the day's Weather looks like being a repeat of today's Weather, it should stay dry with a decent amount of sunshine, Max.Temps. a bit on the cool side at 20c with a coolish N.W. breeze. On Thursday a ridge attempts to build across the S.E., from a large area of High Pressure situated out to the S.W. of the U.K., meaning the Weather is likely to be settled with spells of sunshine and a Max.Temp of 21c, for the London area. Friday, sees High Pressure poised to move in for the Weekend but not before we've experienced a rather cool day, as a N.W/N. flow extends across our Region, on the Eastern flank of this High but it should remain dry with sunny spells and a Max.Temp. probably around 20c, for the London area. Nick ended his Forecast by mentioning Hurricane DORIAN, on the other side of the Atlantic. Latest Model runs now take this feature up the Eastern side of the U.S.A. and away from Florida. As it curves out into the Atlantic, and the remnants of this feature look to get caught up in the Jet Stream and by Monday next Week, could be close to the U.K. The exact position and likely impacts on the U.K., are a long way off in determining though!! That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Nick Miller. It still looks to be a very pleasant spell of Weather then for our Region, as we head through the first Week of September. Regards, Tom.

The North Atlantic 850mb temp anomaly (Pm air now covering the eastern Atlantic) and the surface analysis Apart from isolated showers in the west most of England and Wales are dry this morning with some high cloud around, but still a lot of showery rain over western and northern Scotland and to a lesser extent N. Ireland This showery activity, with perhaps the odd clap of thunder, will spread east and as far south as Kent through the day Quite a stiff NW wind in the north Sowers will linger a while in western regions this evening courtesy of an old occlusion, but generally a clear, albeit quite a chilly, night But the next frontal system is tracking around the ridge and more persistent rain will effect western Scotland and N. Ireland by dawn Through Monday the system will bring heavy rain and strong winds to Scotland, particularly the west, and to a much lesser extent N. Ireland and NW England. Further south, apart from some showers in the west, it will be dry with sunny intervals Over Monday night and through Tuesday the Atlantic trough continues to track east and merge with the one west of northern Norway and surface fronts associated with this will continue to bring rain and strong winds to northern and western regions with the south and east having the best of the sunshine By Wednesday the trough has continued to track east but now has phased with the TPV over the Arctic establishing an elongated trough down through Europe 'trapped' between the east European ridge and the amplifying Atlantic subtropical high This results in much of the UK being in a north westerly wind with a lingering occlusion bringing rain to northern and western regions. Over Thursday the pattern shifts a tad east and the eastbound energy keeps the Atlantic ridge subdued and thus a breezy showery westerly over the northern half of the country with the south getting the better of the sunshine.

Late last night there was a very large, bemused frog sitting in the middle of the shower tray. It appeared, and was, unharmed, but it could only have accessed the shower by the drain, as evidenced by muddy scuffles around the drain hole. It must have pushed up the free-standing cap on the drain. Which concern is, where did it access the drainage system? Something else to worry about and investigate.

Very heavy rain here and cold at 9c. A real shock after the warmth of the last week.Glad we have secured harvest.

Please Please the Daily express, can you forecast the mildest, driest, sunniest, hottest winter for 1 million years this year.

I'm finally done for the summer. My heads turned fully into Autumn/Winter mode. BRING ON THE COLD!

Time to put Summer behind us as we head into a new Month/Season that is Autumn. As ever, please keep your posts friendly & about the models in here! Alternative Threads: To chat more generally about the Autumn weather please head to the Autumn thread: And to post tweets about the models (although you're still welcome to use the Model Output Discussion thread), please see this thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87130-model-tweets/ For the Met Office outlooks, please use this one: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/ Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere Old thread here:

Next recon flight on the way in.

This is pretty cool.

Try telling that to those in the Bahamas.... or those having to forecast this storm. Just because there is the odd fake youtube video is no reason to make a sweeping statement like this.

According to the table of entries, two had 17.1 (Mark Bayley and Midlands Ice Age entered in 33rd and 39th positions to be 1-2). Then it's a big logjam of six at 17.2 and five at 17.0. With order of entry determining their positions, it looks like B87 (17.0) is third, and weather26 (17.2) is fourth. After that, it would be Jonathan F. in 5th, and DR(S)NO in 6th, ProlongedSnowLover 7th, EdStone in 8th, matty007 in 9th, The_PIT in 10th, sundog in 11th, Feb1991blizzard in 12th, and damianslaw in 13th. Of all those, the best combined forecast ranking seems to be DR(S)NO (6th, 4th). If 88 mm is the provisional EWP, nn2013 at 89 mm has top score, and Born from the Void (90 mm) is second with Don (later with 90 mm) third.

918MB ...

Some quite potent showers around the NE at the moment,this just looking towards Newcastle about an hour ago.

Pressure down to 927mb, max sustained winds are 160mph

Indeed Ed,..engage thrusters!! What I find encouraging though is the longer term signal from around mid month, although it's now the meteorological autumn, that doesn't preclude further summery spells this month..watch this space!!!

Today's GEFS 00Z ensembles would seem to suggest a bit of everything but nowt all that specific, after around Day 6...?

Morning all Weather has been abysmal here for days - very wet and very windy! Not much is going to change next week either...pretty depressing stuff but it is Autumn now so I can’t really complain anymore as this is normal fare for us! Plus when you look at what the people in the Northwest Bahamas are currently experiencing...our weather/climate here isn’t so bad after all.

Cheers Catch. That wee bright spot of a sunny settled month was all that was holding me together.

The rain as finally cleared here and the strong winds have eased. Temps have gone up over a degree in the last hour or so but still cool at 12.6C.

Bright here with sunny spells but hellish windy.Not cold though.

My location is missing heavy precipitation as the rain area seems to be rotating north and west of here. The temp is around 16C and there are even a few butterflies around buffeted by the stiff breeze. The overall ‘feel’ is autumnal though, accentuated by the noticeably shorter daylight hours.

Not been completely awful here. Bit of heavy rain early doors, gave way to sunshine and showers and now sunny. Very breezy though. Temp dropped a bit to at around 15/16c. Was 19c briefly earlier.

Urgh. Disgusting weather. Blown-over plants, garden detritus everywhere, paths flooded with standing water..Rain like stepping into a bathroom shower. Moan, moan, put me in a home.

Cooling off nicely now, could see nighttime minimas down to 6-8c on Sunday night/Monday morning.

There is a horse chestnut not far from me, that always sees its leaves turn colour a good two weeks or more than anything else near it.. this often happens tail end of August, so will take a look at it to see how it is doing. Signs of autumn are all around, but don't become notable until well into September. One clear sign is the heavy dew that tends to occur on clear nights as we enter September. As well as the leaves and blackberries etc, it is the light which really takes an effect. The sun is now beginning to rapidly lower on the horizon and dappled shade and shadows take over the countryside. Other signs are in nature, swifts and swallows leaving, followed by housemartins. Wasps swarming around everywhere also another sign.. in these days of too much distraction, we should all stop and look around at what is happening in nature, all too often we don't pay attention - nature is our best entertainment - well I think it is!

September marks the start of the new season and therefore apt time to start the frost watch thread for 2019-2020. There are suggestions some parts of Scotland might see a ground frost early hours of 2nd Sept - nothing unusual, just and indication that under clear skies such a feature is always a threat as we enter September. Please use this thread to predict and also record your first ground and air frost. Here we tend to record our first ground frost at some stage second half of September, and out first air frost by the third week of October -but in some years we have had to wait until well in November.. A ground frost occurs when temperatures are above 0 degrees, sometimes as high as 3 degrees when a light grass frost occurs, an air frost can only occur when the air temp is at or below 0 degrees. Sometimes an air frost is recorded yet there is no visible sign of it - this is a dry frost and usually happens under very dry air with low lapse rates, not a common feature in autumn, but more so in the winter.

Back to Prague this evening for a couple of days, felt much cooler/fresher in London upon departure. In Prague, the warmth is clinging on with 24C at midnight but thunderstorms forecast for tomorrow (exciting) before a significant cool down on Monday. Nice views of Staines and Heathrow on ascent.

The day started off with lovely skies and now the cold front has cleared through - with no more than a disappointing couple of raindrops here - it's a wonderful sunset.

Rain's got even heavier here really had some amount last couple of days. Thankfully it's on it's way out

And for this Autumn, I don't want much, just a rerun of this chart would set me up until Spring.

Changing sunset positions

Signs of cooler weather starting to envelop parts of Russia as we move into September. Some runs showing the first air frost's & a snow risk around the 12th.

same here, stunning morning, roll on September