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Picture of last nights supercell in Edinburgh taken from portobello beach

Taken from portobello beach last night, supercell rotating in the forth

Dundee earlier...

Morning all! Glorious spell of Summer weather (warmth, mild nights, plenty of sunshine, thunderstorms/convection) has finally ended here - pretty much non stop since July 31st) Definitely feels like Autumn out there today! (Currently 14c, cool NNW wind and raining - far cry from the 22c yesterday) We get to enjoy cool nights and a comfortable sleep 9 months of the year in the UK and Ireland - bring back the muggy/humid nights! It’s Summer after all! Hopefully the end of August delivers something hot once again - this GFS chart for 23rd August would be perfect if all that heat in France would push North West! It is a big ask at the moment for that to happen but I will continue to hope for the best! Have a good Sunday everyone!

Autumnal synoptics and increased mood music of summers demise, but the premier bullfight is a sneak preview of this years provisional winter message with its traditionally perspicacious advice to 'forget the teleconnections' (aka its going to snow) There will be plenty of time for the building blocks for a redux of that 'beau ideal' of winters, 1739-40, to be weaved and plotted. Just leave the computer models to follow the carefully laid trail of selected drivers, as well as those deselected and inappropriately not fit for purpose, and then simply put on the central heating, put your feet up and wait for the first river to freeze over.... Yay! Job completed. First of all back to the mundanity of the kindled bonfire that MOD thread HQ has tossed summer 2019 onto - without its required 3 week notice Having had help to make the summer gazebo safe today in that wicked 'autumnal' wind, it might require some patience before it can be fully utilized a next time, but it hasn't been fully dismantled and put away. Clear signs now of the ongoing reversal of strong E'rly trade wind momentum close to and east of the dateline from midmonth - and with convective suppression retreating away from the Pacific. This is concordant with return of the low frequency convergence signal in the CPAC. The w/QBO and presence of Nino type walker cell circulation together continuing to regenerate westerly wind bursts in the Western and central Pacific belies the macro scale adjustment through the summer to an ENSO neutral status in the Pacific. As previously alluded to the unassuming neutral status disguises some stark contrasts in SST's across the Pacific which looks set to throw curveballs to modelling now and through into the autumn itself. In the here and now it continues to question the retention of La Nina type downstream flow advertised by NWP in the medium/longer term range. Albeit there is an eventual very slow relinquishing of the trough solution between the UK and Scandinavia. There is no route back to heat that can yet be justified, but any lingering cool air advection looks most likely linked to the transitional relaxation of the upper trough as ridging takes over from the south. This in turn though, an eventual bridge to warmer and settled conditions to return as thicknesses rise and any cooler uppers get mixed out. Prior to the present trade wind burst override, atmospheric angular momentum in recent days has been returning close to average... …...with the extra tropical measure of aggregate wind-flow, the Global Wind Oscillation, reflecting a small increase in momentum flow with a very weak amplitude orbit in Phase 4. This is a two day lagged plot and just ahead of the trade wind burst which will be returning the GWO back to lower momentum phasing while its effects remain. It explains why the current low was not able to secure a more westward track attendant with a stronger downstream ridge response which would have arisen with a higher amplitude and longer lasting GWO Phase 4 orbit. Minor, but significant margins for why the UK narrowly missed a plume yesterday. and instead witnesses an 'autumnal' style deep low... However, based on the subsequent return of the low frequency signal in the CPAC and further westerly winds added back to the atmospheric circulation, there is not really support for a persistent Nina type low angular momentum response long term c/o of a Scandinavian/UK trough and amplified Western Atlantic profile either... The suspicion remains that NWP is being too slow in the extended period to acknowledge the upstream pattern and obfuscation to a ridging transition is overly procrastinated. One word about any MJO/GWO composite inference here. Live proxy data, including wind anomaly, convective velocity potential, OLR data, and polar field profile in relation to the troposphere should always be used to help interpreting synoptic patterns to wind-flow changes across the hemisphere. Much as NWP interpretation, any teleconnection based composite should not be taken at face value without sufficient diagnostic proxy data support. Especially important with so much superimposed heat stress skewing responses within tropics, extra tropics and pole. On the other hand, myopic and parochial dismissal of the role tropical and extra tropical momentum transport processes via torque mechanisms play in altering rossby wavelengths - and hence changing the velocity/ trajectory of the jet stream and providing such a useful advanced insight into how NWP may evolve weather patterns ….is not an act of perspicuity

Highly unlikely but given all the rain and humidity the biggest problem is blight just because the farmers have not been able to spray them enough to keep it at bay.They are already burning them down and chopping the tops in my area leaving huge tracks as they do it.Very wet and 10c here

Evening - As it stands I feel summer is draining away... If we look at how prominent the polar cell has been this year & how its ongoing influence over NW Europe, now add in a slight 'seasonal' retreat of the Ferrel cell ( just perhaps 2-4 degrees south ) further compounds the problem. The base condition now means that the mean location of the warmth has been relocated into Southern France & the UK will be in cool westerly air even occasional polar air. ( ECM introduces the 0c isotherm to the UK late on in the run ) Just as an aside the Stratospheric Vortex has been running along the minimum baseline pretty much all summer breaking many many date records for minimum speeds ( Easterly ) - The only caveat to that is the bandwidth across record negativity to record 'weak' negativity is only about 5 M/S * Key dates. ~ 1st of September or thereabouts where the stratospheric vortex becomes 'official' for 2019/20 - could that be a record 'late' date Also October 1st-15th where the vortex strength has a bandwidth of 10M/S which at which point a continued trend of creeping along the baseline ( or record weakness ) would certainly be more significant than early Sept. Outlook for all of August - Negative NAO pulsing -1/-2 indicates wet & windy as the jet hits runs through the UK- September analogues for the 9 negative NAO summers (since 2006 Is that the NAO makes a sharp transition to positive as heights build over Scandi ... One to keep an eye on... The Tamar region anomaly showing due to ice loss.... This linked into Scandi could see some Warm Autumn weather in the form of SE winds ... It just depends on how quick the -NAO relaxes ...

Another photo of the Edinburgh supercell (copyright Kevin Clein)

found that on twitter. Non stop rain today ?️

I'm surprised that we've not seen an Amber warning for rain yet, particularly today given the persistent heavy rain on top of all the recent flooding.

Good Morning all! It’s bleak out there! 14c, chilly NNW wind and raining...sounds more like our normal Scottish Summer in August. Baby seagulls are enjoying it. Does not look as though any heat/thunderstorms will be returning in the short to medium term but some usable days of sunshine/showers and temperatures around 16/17c for the week ahead. Not the best outlook but I really can’t complain after the Summer so far. Enjoy yer Sunday!

The Ecm 0z is looking unsettled but day 10 + shows an improvement as ridging encroaches from the south & west.

I decided to go fishing up at Arrochar, Loch Long. The rain stopped not long after I arrived and it was nice calm evening. Mr seal paid me a visit and was trying to steal my mackerel

The ridge development is starting to show a bit more, albeit tentatively, in the modelling. Even if the NAO does find a way to stay negative, that doesn’t preclude a drier and warmer spell if the blocking high is far west enough. Something I forgot to mention the other day when I was thinking more in terms of UK-Scandi trough persistence. Tamara has as usual summarised as well as anyone could the reasons why changes are anticipated, and please take note of what she says regarding the methodology here. Its not just pattern matching. In fact, I’ve tried that with the GWO/AAM/tropical zonal winds and its not produced any confident results. It instead involves applying known cause & effect while allowing for distorting factors such as the drastically changed Arctic troposphere and (more intermittently) lower stratosphere. Heres one simplified take: If you know that the tropics and mid-latitude patterns are intrinsically connected, and then the tropics change substantially, it makes intuitive sense to anticipate changes in the mid-latitudes too .

This rain is pretty bad here. Doesn't look is moving very far according to the radar. Rainfall totals are going to be ridiculous for this month if it keeps on like this.

2 Flashes and 2 loud bangs yesterday and that was it. and today im in no mans land.

Morning everyone. I've just cast my eyes over the monthly CFS charts. Well, what can I say? It looks like autumn has arrived here in the UK, with low pressure more of less over us!. ?️?️ But then at the end of August, it looks like autumn is starting to fade (or at least catch its breath), and summer conditions arrive thanks to a high pressure riding in from off the Atlantic, just in time for the start of autumn! As ever, this is the low resolution CFS, and I am but a mere amateur, and above all else the weather will do whatever the weather will do.

Morning all. Complete opposite of what I expected to wake up to this morning, as it is dry, cloudy and calm. Fife appears to be 'in the eye' of this rotation? Was up at five a.m. and looking at the radar, nothing has moved. A very red sky at that time though.

Lashing down here again for the third time this evening. Not as heavy as last night but still very wet! Edit. Photo doesn’t really show it.

Dundee earlier...

A bit of a warming trend, post Day 9, but other than that, no real sign of any long-lasting fine weather...? Though, it's fair to say that once the deep low has passed pressure and T850s look likely to slowly rise, towards the SE. One run. One model! And, in the meantime, the doomsayers can delight in the inevitability that Autumn'll start on Day 22!

Today's GEFS 12Z ensembles have what looks like a signal-for-improvement commencing at around Day 7! Well...sort of!

Take a look at how the GEFS 12z mean improves between the mid and longer range!..we may yet salvage something good from August, at least southern uk!

The fact that its cooling off is a real relief for malting barley crops as any pregermination of the ripe grain means the grain is rejected outright and its value severely reduced.Brief dry period early afternoon but now light rain and cool at 11c. Really do need to see a good September to rescue this summer on the farm. Note its just above freezing on the summit of Cairngorm currently.

A little ray of hope, from the GFS 12Z!!

Some banging cloudscape down here on the way home

Hi Lyn It's a measurement of how much wind has passed a static point over a period of time. If the wind speed was 10mph for 24 hours, the wind run would be 240 miles. Another way of putting it, if you started at a point in a hot air balloon and the wind was blowing at 10mph all day, the balloon would have travelled 240 miles. It also has something to do with working out evaporation as well. Hope that helps?

Not much cause for optimism in today's GEFS 06Z ensembles...

Well we are out of the dry spot now as we have steady moderate rain. Radar now looks to be filling up for these parts.

Fantastic pictures posted yesterday the cloud formations were incredible I've never seen the likes, sadly all the action was located about thirty miles away to the south, still we got to see a few flashes and heard lots of thunder...way better than the last few days.

And it might be a long time in coming, Jeff? Eye-candy at Day 16? And, the GEFS 00Z ensembles... Plenty of cooler, more comfortable nights to enjoy, though.

You just never know... there's going to be a lot of those beasts cantering over the snowy (sunny) uplands this winter. Good job on the weather analysis too.

Only just noticed a screenshot facility on youtube. Tried it out on my timelapse of the early hours storm of 24th July

Pouring it down again, I was planning on going fishing later if the rain clears the west coast this afternoon.

A not unpleasant morning here. It's dull but bright and we seem to be avoiding the rain so far.

Well what can one say about tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean at day 10?...I will say this, it's better than any of the days before it, especially for the south!

Getting very dark here now and just started to rain - first rain of the day really but not heavy. Still rumbling away!

Taken from winchburgh earlier ...

A couple of shots from delayed dog - walk for around 15 mins from approx 1.30pm here in Cobham we had a sustained gale gusting up to 50 mph and probs a bit more in exposed places...

Been really nice, sunny and warm (humid) here today. Things dried out nicely after the recent deluges. Can't make head or tail of the storm forecast as it is far too technical for me! Certainly getting cloudier now and something looks to be incoming!

Rain just started now following one crack of thunder. Clouds building.

Very cool looking clouds around, thunderstorms now breaking out further south of me.

Another day of a brilliant convective sky in our new tropical Scotland! No thunder or lightning unfortunately but I was happy enough with what arrived. 22c, plenty of sunshine and torrential downpours breaking out all around me and overhead. It has been a memorable spell for here - pretty relentless since July 31 regarding convection. Not looking forward to Autumn arriving tomorrow!

The midday analysis and 1400 sat image,Although still very windy, now that the showers have died out it feels quite warm down gere

Just managed to get the grass cut before this torrential downpour...

Have to agree with Damiens post above... Most definitely looking like a good chunk of August going down as a write off now. If we put this into a little more context, that would implie that with the first 3 weeks of June, then the summer as a whole would have been 50% unsettled and 50% not to bad for a good chunk of the UK! just looking at the extended ecm ensembles out to day 14,there is a trend for an overall increase in temperature and sea level pressure. Towards the backend of August the pressure is getting close to 1020mb...so there are most definitely some signs of an improvement come the last week of the month.... Will it come just in time for the Bank Holiday..... Or will it wait till the end..... Is the million dollar question.

This must rank right up there as one of the wettest 15 hours I’ve ever had here. 50mm or more has fallen, on and off all night and since I woke about 8am it has never once stopped. Proper heavy rain, you can’t even walk to the car 10 feet away without feeling soaked. The rain just feels stuck over us, radar seems to suggest it will eventually move away but maybe not for another hour

Autumn has arrived in Cumbria, gusty wind and horizontal rain lashing the windows. 21mm of rain since midnight on top of the 50mm from yesterday. Turning into a very wet month. Standard august!