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Satellite infra red imagery from the early hours of this morning showed quite a dark core for the low pressure system out in the bay of Biscay. I would take this to show that the low pressure system was deepening quite rapidly at this point. From the imagery we can see a cooler air feed becoming entrained within the system which has been feeding the enhancement. Lightning Wizard charts show a couple of things. Firstly significant propensity for spout development for the south west into the evening and overnight. Secondly a marked upper level trough swinging across the UK ahead of the center of the low.Thirdly quite strong convection gust potential south and east of the low pressure system. Looking at Forecast SkewT's I can see weak instability for the south west late into the afternoon with quite a bit of wind sheer. For tomorrow we see a pretty moist profile all the way up (which suggests messy convection). I am not sure how much I trust these at the moment. Taking all of this into account then the forecast filling of the low and tilting might be a bit delayed. Upper level temperatures associated with the low might be a bit cooler than forecast where cooler air has become entrained.I would not rule out the possibility of a slightly wider area (Southampton through south midlands and into wales) being at risk of thunderstorms late afternoon. Prime risk is going to be for the south west including into the night. Water Spouts and very weak tornadoes should not be ruled out for this area. Tomorrow at the moment looks a bit messy and I would not like to put much detail on it till we see how things develop today.

38.7c officially confirmed

One place that is the top of my bucket list. Florida. Between June and August, guaranteed 100% storms. It’s a game of clash of Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes and where the colliding point is. After that, outflow boundaries from initial storms fire up new ones all over! It’s a convective lovers heaven by the looks of it. Add a bit of wind shear, and yep, they can get supercells! Heres a very good one from Clearwater. Imagine sitting with a beer watching bolts from the blue! Classic clear cut +CG’s. Heaven.

Lord have mercy.... I was wandering why the posts have been thin on the ground today!!! Just one look at the precipitation charts tomorrow.... And now I no why!! It's going to be great for ducks or for folks dancing in the rain... Rest assured guys... Don't worry about watering your plants this evening, not unless you want to drown them. Some large rainfall totals on Tuesday... Lots of showers on Wednesday and these more focused to the NE at this point.... Beyond that shower risk becoming less to the South with more in the way of warm sunny spells... This leading to a decent start to the weekend... Temps perhaps ranging from... 20-27c North to South... Whatever your weather brings... Try to enjoy it, and stay safe... A very good evening to you all.

Just thought i would capture a couple of screen grabs

The interesting intense little low at 0600 UTC. Ac is already encroaching here Apologies if this is off topic

Wow! Wow! It seems 'right' that we have it confirmed. Had it not been for the pesky convective cloud invasion there would of been no doubt. You could be grateful I suppose that the cloud didn't arrive half an hour earlier in the Cambridge area as we would of missed the record. My part of London dropped from 37.6c at 2pm to 36.3 at 330pm.

Although moving on yesterday afternoon, i’m gonna talk about yesterday night. Oh my god. My first time seeing a supercell storm and seeing a LOT of frequent lightning. It wasn’t until 9pm onwards (2am in the UK) where the lightning really started showing off it’s power. Lightningmaps.org showed a frequency of that storm of 80 strikes per minute, although I can easily say, it was at least 5x more than that. I honestly won’t be surprised if this storm makes the headlines. It was the biggest storm I have ever seen and the last time I will ever see a storm as big as that.

Well we landed up with a very fine drizzle on Saturday evening. Plenty of areas in the garden were covered though, so festivities weren't dampened! Great success after all the anxiety. Didn't break up 'till 3am. Today is dry though and still overcast and muggy with very little wind (and no sun either)

I appreciate that undertaking physical work during this warm, muggy spell is difficult, but on the other hand I do prefer this weather type to persistent grey sky, cold drizzle or gales. For example, I was able to sit outside comfortably on Saturday evening wearing a frock (a rare occurrence ) without cardy or jacket. Foggy, no wind to speak of and temp 16C early this morning, but I see cooler weather may be set to filter down.

Maybe its just old age but these humid nights and lack of sleep are getting to me.The continual humidity is making everyone short temperd especially when doing physical jobs outside. I also believe that drivers are less alert and have seen numerous bumps on the local roads in the last week Currently dull misty 98%RH and 16.5c. Real dog days of summer now. Roll on a cool breezy autumn.

The next 7 days looking like a bit of everything, sunny spells, showers, but rather warm with it... No point in getting to hung up over it, as the models struggle beyond a week! Plenty of time for another plume or 2...just to refresh your memories a little... 1906 heatwave stemmed from August 31 to the 3rd of September... The temperatures went above 32c for 4 consecutive days. The highest temp being recorded at 35.6c in Bawtry,Yorkshire. And Gordon Castle in Scotland reached 32.2c. And let's not forget 2016...August the 24th when 33.8c was recorded in Suffolk. This was bettered further on September 13th 2016 when 34.4c was recorded in Gravesend. So I think there is still plenty of time for us to achieve another hot spell or 2, especially as we have some serious heat in parts of Europe still.. Not to mention a fair bit of heat over the Arctic regions, could be a very interesting Autumn for sure.

Well as one of many on here, analysing suites and suites of model runs in the run up to Thursday, I feel a certain sense of satisfaction that this record was eventually chased down. Incredible period of weather, and let's not forget the 850 temperatures with the 20C isotherm incredibly far north into the country.

Here’s the clip: 91D71694-FAE9-400A-840D-D3117881E432.MOV

A lovely sight to behold watching that low bully it’s way in, hopefully setting up a lovely photogenic convective day for us all! Anyone else noticed that the remnants of last weeks plume are now knocking on the door of Iceland lol. From Europe with love!

An hour of daylight lost in southern England now. I am looking forward to it not getting light until post-6am I have to say. 6-7am is the ideal really.

I loved the rainy weekend. And the flat is now at a comfortable temperature.

Worth reiterating the final two paragraphs from Tamara's very insightful update yesterday afternoon. The state of the EPS clusters is arguably reflective of the models being automatically inclined toward moving the trough through the UK via a flat jet pattern, but starting to pick up on what may prove, yet again, to be the (at least main) trough actually staying west of the UK. Studying plots of wind and velocity potential anomalies, I observe the Nino standing wave to still be present, and GEFS showing a tendency to attack it with TWBs, but with this being nothing new in recent weeks; the model keeps trying to take the standing wave apart, but this keeps proving to be a red herring. Observing the FV3 runs of the past few days, it appears that this model has inherited most or all of that bias. To be fair, ECM/EPS show a similar bias, just not as persistent - that model had a major mishap with late June but fared better in early-mid July. IMO, August has a good shot at delivering a longer run of very warm or hot weather than July managed. Naturally, odds are it doesn't reach such extremes as what we saw last week, but given all the 'thermal momentum' in the European vicinity (in the form of SSTs and ground temps), there will need to be a good amount of rain across mainland Europe to fully close the door on another extreme heat event manifesting, should high pressure build as it looks capable of doing at some point within the first half of August. 2nd half of August, it becomes more a case of extremes relative to the norm for the time of year, rather than all-time. Too far out to envision how the standing wave might be faring at that time, but as yet, there aren't any clear signs of, for example, MJO activity capable of delivering a 'fatal' blow. One more month until we begin what I believe could be one of the weirdest, wackiest autumns on record considering the extraordinary amount of anomalous warmth amassed at the high latitudes, most significantly in the Arctic Ocean.

Loads of storms around me at the moment

My storm risk map for tomorrow could also be some cells that develop further east but main focus should be in that orange zone (easterly wind likely to pick up which as I discussed usually kills any storms around here so not keen on anything here hence no zone further east) Orange zone threats - frequent lightning and intense rainfall with medium - high risk of flooding, discussion - storms look likely to develop with plentiful amounts of both SBCAPE and MUCAPE with a front moving up from the SW and also a convergence zone looking like setting up focusing the storms over the orange zone, after a few days of heavy rain and the likeliness of intense rainfall in a short space of time flooding will be likely so if in this area keeping an eye on the radar will be a good idea. @Mr Frost @Ross B @Stormeh in with a chance tomorrow.

The development of this quite intense low, near the left exit of the jet, to the south west of Cornwall is a tad unusual at this time of year and not without interest. Over tonight and through tomorrow it will track north east to be centred near Hull by midnight tomorrow The occlusion associated with the low went through here about 1300 and it's now continuing to track north east along with the quite narrow rain band. But the main interest now is the convective activity with the low itself which is already effecting the south west, This activity will move north east overnight and through tomorrow before subsiding by late evening and will effect most western and central regions and involve frequent heavy showers with thunderstorms and intense localized intense downpours in the mix And for a time quite strong winds along the south coast Cloud top temps also give an idea of the scale of the convection as some these will around the 30, 000ft mark

The Gfs 12z operational brings a window of drier and sunnier weather later this week as trough influence decreases and ridge influence increases...and it's official, the recent heatwave brought the highest temperature record of 38.7c!!!!!

That will please the flip flop brigade

Looks like a cinnamon swirl sat there in the SW approaches...

So, the GEFS 00Z ensembles strongly suggest a week-long 'cooler' period, as the -AO does what it does; though, as it's been mostly -ive since May, one could argue that, we've been rather lucky regarding July's heat and sunshine? But, there's nothing in there that would point toward writing-off the rest of August.

UKV take on rainfall from the little Low spinning up from the S/W later today and into tomorrow, A fair bit of rain could fall in places that have already had big total's over the weekend.

Looking good mate! Cheers once again for taking the time to deliver another storm risk map/outlook - enjoy reading them! I am feeling quite confident for here tomorrow (there goes any chance I did have! ) Radar at the ready for tomorrow - really has been quite the Summer for thunderstorm warnings/outlooks! Most of my thunderstorms happened at the end of June - bits and bobs since. Peaked at 18c today - heavy showers on and off - low hanging clouds the order of today! If going into August there is no sign of a plume/heat/thunderstorms I would like to fast forward straight into Winter!

A very autumnal day tomorrow in the south, and then further north on Wednesday - but after that, the ECM tonight suggests not too bad up to and including the weekend (esp. further south and east). The Atlantic low runs out of gas, nearly stalling - however, with the lack of a plume event, temperatures warm rather than hot - low 20s over most of England, possibly up to 27/28C in the SE corner at times.

Beautiful day here today, sunshine and warmth with temps up to 26c More rain forecast tomorrow which should please the Wellie brigade.

New temperature record confirmed!! By UKMO on Twitter!

I am not good at presenting scientific data as regards of Skew-t's etc but i am sure someone will,i am just an extreme storm nut like most on here,forecasting or pinpointing storms is very difficult to forecast and most of the video forecast's are just a general forecast to cover the uk and storms as always are hit and miss,it's best just to keep an eye on the radar tomorrow https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar Lightning detectors http://map.blitzortung.org/#4.71/54.36/-9.04 https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=200;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;z=6;y=51.3512;x=-8.3826;d=2;dl=2;dc=0; Satellite and cloud tops. https://en.sat24.com/en https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/km i hope this helps.

Yellow thunderstorm warning out for Wed for a lot of Scotland (excluding me of course). Largely cloudy and calm here too but feeling warm. Been a few good days here for me to knock the garden into shape, being generally dry and warm, but not too warm. Not liking the look of next week, temps likely to barely manage mid teens for highs.

Cloudy but calm afternoon that weather front has fizzled out barely any rain in the end. Tomorrow though..........and wednesday for that matter...........interesting is all I can say

Interesting point made by you there Pete! Low pressure to the NE towards mid month bringing a cooler W/NW feed and unsettled. A signal that Exeter are saying is growing in confidence!! I'm not so sure how you can have increasing confidence in 2 weeks out though tbh. Just looking at the extended ECM mean out to mid August, we have a mean around 8c...the pressure remains steady during the 1st week,around 1010mb. During the 2nd week we see a slight upturn, with the pressure rising to around 1014mb. All academic, has its a long way off.... Much to far off to say with any certainty that signals would be strong. So perhaps we should just see how this upcoming week pans out before we make to much judgement on the beginning of August.

Nowt new in the 06Z ensembles: As 'others' have suggested, we may be going to exchange warmish convection (LP to our NW) for instability of a rather cooler (LP to our NE) variety, around or soon after, mid-month...?

And, at T+177, and not for the first time this summer, the 06Z has us in a no-man's land:

True PM, but saves me needing to water before I go away until Friday! Nor do the anomaly charts really suggest another sunny and hot spell being imminent http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Make the most of today which should be a decent day, some lively weather to come with heavy (perhaps thundery) showers for the rest of the week. One thing to note that even when pressure rises, it is a weak affair do showers could still be present along with the risk of mist/low cloud for eastern coasts if the predicted NE wind sets in. need to watch for an early taste of autumn later on with an Atlantic ridge/Scandinavia trough setting up which could deliver a rather cool northerly. Still a long way off and the blocking could behave very differently.

Morning all, Had a quick look at Meteox Radar, before I went to bed last night. I couldn't believe the amount of Sferics moving weatwards out of Norway, into the North Sea!! A legacy of our heat and humidity of a few days ago. Very unusual!! Another very comfortable Night's sleep, last Night thankfully. Although we still had to have both fans on, albeit on a low setting. I also managed to get under our duvet, which is something I havn't been able to for over a Week now. Have just watched a recording of MeteoGroup's, Weather for the Week Ahead with Susan Powell. The Headline graphic stated, "Much cooler and Showery. After a pretty wet Weekend, this Week starts with a lovely warm Day. Max. Temps around 26c, for the London area. But lurking in the shadows, is an area of Low Pressure down to the S.W. This will start to exert it's influence tomorrow. Some showery rain and a gusty S. wind moving across our Region. Max. Temps of around 22c for the London area. By Wednesday, that Low has parked itself over the U.K. and starts to fill. At this time of year, that's normally a recipe for some, slow moving and thundery downpours, which I'm sure will delight the Brontophiles around our Region. Max.Temps., still around 22c. By Thursday, our Low should start to move out into the North Sea. Still a few showers around to begin with and Max.Temps. of around 24c. By Friday, an area of High Pressure should start to nudge in from the W., settling things down with Max.Temps up to around 25c. At the moment, it looks like the High, will be quite transient and that Low Pressure will take hold again, by the end of the Weekend. So staying unsettled,with some rain around, at the beginning of the following Week. Susan at the end of the Broadcast stated that the big contrast as opposed to last Week, is that it will feel much fresher and considerably, more unsettled. Hallelujah, more comfortable sleeping!! That's the view of MeteoGroup, seen through the eyes of Susan Powell, for the extended Forecast. Regards, Tom.

There was some curiosity I think on 25th or 26th Friday or Saturday about some very torrential downpours across SE Wales , there was no clear direction in which they looked like they were travelling. Here is a timelapse of the same shower .. what should have been a thunderstorm

The cool Northerly as touched on by Cap't above from the GFS into Wk2, Possible first frosts in the Glens..

And normally late in August, weather reports usually forecast warm, sunny conditions for much of September, as Autumn is put on hold ...hopefully

Staying in Dorset this week so may pay a few visits in here if you'll have me as an honorary member. Been in Wiltshire this weekend before travelling down must say I have thoroughly enjoyed the weather.

Not unexpectedly some significant differences with max temps in parts of the country not under the cooling umbrella of frontal rain http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

Little to add to earlier comments vis the EPS anomalies and NOAA except to reiterate that the ext period is still looking more fluid/changeable with temps varying around the average

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean isn't so bad, I think most of the rain that falls will be in the form of showers, many of them heavy and thundery with sunny spells between, however, as well as showery troughs there is some ridging indicated too so at least some fine weather at times. Temperatures generally close to average, humidity levels much lower than last week so feeling fresher but it's not a disaster and certainly doesn't mean we have seen the last of the truly summery weather...I'm sure August will deliver at some point!!

Just looks pretty mundane and boring right out through the first 7-10 days of August. Sunshine, showers, temperatures around average. -ve nao, negative tilt in the Atlantic and suppressed Azores high. No signs of any settled weather or heat on any of the ensembles. Probably leaves us 2-3 weeks of summer for one last hurrah.

I'll kick this off with screen grabs and short snap video of the best lightning strike I saw on Thursday evening in Norwich. It came over in 2 separate waves, the second the most violent of the two, with wind gusts, large convective drops and loud thunder including a positive strike (the thunder I got on video). I hope to upload the whole video to YouTube soon. Finally a decent heat breakdown for us that was worth while. Lightning was very frequent. 20190725_221637_1.mp4

Humid misty day .Thought neeps were growing well so young Mr. Northernlights went to take Donald and Boris(scarecrows) down this morning and he noticed the diamond back moths were back again and so were there caterpillars eating holes in the leaves.Phoned agronomist and will have to spray them with insecticide plus a foliar feed tomorrow.This is a first for us needing two insecticide sprays in one season.I wonder if this is because of different weather patterns due to climate change.causing them to be able come across from Europe more easily. Currently dull and 21c

Looking back at a previous post last weekend, and some thinking expressed back then, its clear that the lesser progressive solutions did lead the way in some erratic modelling that was forced into some impressive westward corrections. The closer detail reveals that this weekend is turning out wetter and therefore cooler than could have been anticipated at such a range, and across what is a microcosm of an area in relation to deciphering the Atlantic and European pattern. However, this rather distorts the bigger picture which shows that the very hot airmass has proved every bit as difficult to shift eastwards as these lesser progressive solutions suggested. Indeed it is this same slowness that has resulted in the stalled front and associated rainfall in evidence today and into tomorrow for quite a few of us. The next thing to say, is that very many contributions and updates from a wide range of posters has made this, and other threads, following the modelled progress of the heatwave, an excellent read this week - and so in my opinion a lot of credit and thanks is due to a large number of members for some very detailed discussion and debate Its been an astonishing week - not just for the heat itself, but also ( just for example) the outflow winds from thunderstorms which actually exacerbated that heat on Thursday evening associated with active and prolific 'dry lightning'. These strong outflow winds were picked out by high resolution models - as the EML theta plume (Elevated Mixed Layer) very gradually destabilised set against the very high upper air temperatures that had been 'capping' it - and have been taking so long to displace eastwards Looking ahead, in my opinion a main theme of this summer stands a good chance of repeating itself. The recurring 'spasmodic' blocking of this summer previously discussed c/o a highly unstable polar profile keeps duelling with a very organised low frequency walker cell in the tropics that equally persists in renewing sub tropical ridging to our mid latitude. At the same time according with this, and with our SST signatures helping, an Atlantic pattern fails to sustainably send a procession of lows under any block for a length of time, as one might expect with recurring higher latitude blocks, and instead sees follow up low slow on approach and give the sub tropical high every opportunity to ridge into the void ahead of it. The modelling has shown itself this summer as susceptible to wanting to keep the pattern too flat for too long with the phasing of these lows and instead the sub tropical ridge proves more resilient ahead of it. This is something to watch in the snapshot in time ensemble suites and not take too much at face value from the more immediate suites - but maybe instead judge them from how they evolve during the coming days ahead. Persistence factors alone do not of course guarantee past trends will be mimicked in future trends. Next weeks blocking programmed to the north is likely to migrate westwards with time, in tandem with pressure falling over Scandinavia and also tending to migrate that low pressure west to phase with approaching troughs in the Atlantic . This initially looks set to flatten the pattern to create the illusion of a longer term procession of lows. But as the pattern retrogresses, then this increases the likelihood that a follow up trough will, ultimately, like previously seen this summer, deepen in western/mid Atlantic and so a re-occurring downstream sub tropical ridge response accordingly gains traction, in time, with the modelling. On that basis, the present fall in pressure over Europe (created by a displaced arm of the jetstream digging southwards, elongating the trough that was to the NW of the UK and gravitationally forcing its new centre of low pressure into the continent) represents the conclusion stage of a repeating cycle that commened at the start of summer, progressed its second cycle through July to its present end stage, and over the coming 10 days is looking set to commence its third cycle. The differences between the first two cycles has been that seasonal wavelength changes vs the tropical/extra tropical windflow circulation on the jet stream (the low frequency walker cell and convectively coupled kelvin wave activity in the Pacific) have helped incrementally back the pattern westwards. This trend takes us to the third cycle. So that : 1) In June we saw the trough directly over us, and then immediately following up were still subject to cool air advection influence with the very high uppers that followed. 2) During July we have seen the trough resisted close by to our west. Hence the least progressive solutions verifying and the very warm/hot air advection managing to stick long enough to share the noteworthy conditions that mainland Europe saw in June 3) As August progresses our third tropical/extra tropical cycle of the summer, there is a reasonable chance that we may see a trough sequence further displaced to our west and a more prominent late summer anticyclone influence from Western Europe/Scandinavia. Especially perhaps if some activity in the tropical Atlantic assists in the process. At the moment, the modelling is best 'seeing' the phasing of falling of pressure across Scandinavia (from its latest downstream ridge peak) with the trough(s) approaching in the Atlantic next week. The caution is in extrapolating and making assumptions too far ahead from this - and so not a bad thing to be mindful of the risk of NWP persisting, in error, of this synoptic stage for too long. Too soon to suspect August may follow any alleged underwhelming tradition, even if the ending of July and heading into the new month might appear to be getting off us off to a (relatively) unremarkable start. But temperatures still look respectable over the coming period and perspective has to be set against the spectacular events of last week