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Showing most liked content on 29/07/19 in all areas

  1. 8 likes
    Lord have mercy.... I was wandering why the posts have been thin on the ground today!!! Just one look at the precipitation charts tomorrow.... And now I no why!! It's going to be great for ducks or for folks dancing in the rain... Rest assured guys... Don't worry about watering your plants this evening, not unless you want to drown them. Some large rainfall totals on Tuesday... Lots of showers on Wednesday and these more focused to the NE at this point.... Beyond that shower risk becoming less to the South with more in the way of warm sunny spells... This leading to a decent start to the weekend... Temps perhaps ranging from... 20-27c North to South... Whatever your weather brings... Try to enjoy it, and stay safe... A very good evening to you all.
  2. 7 likes
    Well we landed up with a very fine drizzle on Saturday evening. Plenty of areas in the garden were covered though, so festivities weren't dampened! Great success after all the anxiety. Didn't break up 'till 3am. Today is dry though and still overcast and muggy with very little wind (and no sun either)
  3. 6 likes
    Well as one of many on here, analysing suites and suites of model runs in the run up to Thursday, I feel a certain sense of satisfaction that this record was eventually chased down. Incredible period of weather, and let's not forget the 850 temperatures with the 20C isotherm incredibly far north into the country.
  4. 5 likes
    An hour of daylight lost in southern England now. I am looking forward to it not getting light until post-6am I have to say. 6-7am is the ideal really.
  5. 4 likes
    My storm risk map for tomorrow could also be some cells that develop further east but main focus should be in that orange zone (easterly wind likely to pick up which as I discussed usually kills any storms around here so not keen on anything here hence no zone further east) Orange zone threats - frequent lightning and intense rainfall with medium - high risk of flooding, discussion - storms look likely to develop with plentiful amounts of both SBCAPE and MUCAPE with a front moving up from the SW and also a convergence zone looking like setting up focusing the storms over the orange zone, after a few days of heavy rain and the likeliness of intense rainfall in a short space of time flooding will be likely so if in this area keeping an eye on the radar will be a good idea. @Mr Frost @Ross B @Stormeh in with a chance tomorrow.
  6. 4 likes
    So, the GEFS 00Z ensembles strongly suggest a week-long 'cooler' period, as the -AO does what it does; though, as it's been mostly -ive since May, one could argue that, we've been rather lucky regarding July's heat and sunshine? But, there's nothing in there that would point toward writing-off the rest of August.
  7. 3 likes
    Looking good mate! Cheers once again for taking the time to deliver another storm risk map/outlook - enjoy reading them! I am feeling quite confident for here tomorrow (there goes any chance I did have! ) Radar at the ready for tomorrow - really has been quite the Summer for thunderstorm warnings/outlooks! Most of my thunderstorms happened at the end of June - bits and bobs since. Peaked at 18c today - heavy showers on and off - low hanging clouds the order of today! If going into August there is no sign of a plume/heat/thunderstorms I would like to fast forward straight into Winter!
  8. 3 likes
    A very autumnal day tomorrow in the south, and then further north on Wednesday - but after that, the ECM tonight suggests not too bad up to and including the weekend (esp. further south and east). The Atlantic low runs out of gas, nearly stalling - however, with the lack of a plume event, temperatures warm rather than hot - low 20s over most of England, possibly up to 27/28C in the SE corner at times.
  9. 3 likes
    I am not good at presenting scientific data as regards of Skew-t's etc but i am sure someone will,i am just an extreme storm nut like most on here,forecasting or pinpointing storms is very difficult to forecast and most of the video forecast's are just a general forecast to cover the uk and storms as always are hit and miss,it's best just to keep an eye on the radar tomorrow https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar Lightning detectors http://map.blitzortung.org/#4.71/54.36/-9.04 https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=200;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;z=6;y=51.3512;x=-8.3826;d=2;dl=2;dc=0; Satellite and cloud tops. https://en.sat24.com/en https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/km i hope this helps.
  10. 3 likes
    Cloudy but calm afternoon that weather front has fizzled out barely any rain in the end. Tomorrow though..........and wednesday for that matter...........interesting is all I can say
  11. 3 likes
    Interesting point made by you there Pete! Low pressure to the NE towards mid month bringing a cooler W/NW feed and unsettled. A signal that Exeter are saying is growing in confidence!! I'm not so sure how you can have increasing confidence in 2 weeks out though tbh. Just looking at the extended ECM mean out to mid August, we have a mean around 8c...the pressure remains steady during the 1st week,around 1010mb. During the 2nd week we see a slight upturn, with the pressure rising to around 1014mb. All academic, has its a long way off.... Much to far off to say with any certainty that signals would be strong. So perhaps we should just see how this upcoming week pans out before we make to much judgement on the beginning of August.
  12. 2 likes
    I wouldn't say bullish. The warning matrix is as low as you can get in terms of likelihood.
  13. 2 likes
    Quite - don’t get the weather station police involved again! Probably best you don’t show them the one that broke the Finland record either, that isn’t suitable.
  14. 2 likes
    Yep, Thursday onwards looking much better on the ECM - especially further south and east. Some warm air getting into the SE during the weekend, high 20’s possible. The low mainly stays west of the UK on this run and only very slowly makes inroads, mainly affecting the W/NW.
  15. 2 likes
    I am in the boots and coats brigade.
  16. 2 likes
    Worth noting to that this record could yet still be broken as some stations only report data monthly https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/new-official-highest-temperature-in-uk-confirmed
  17. 2 likes
    Beautiful day. 26c and sunny.
  18. 2 likes
  19. 2 likes
    A much better start to the day, warm air aloft and a light SW breeze then it should be a warm one too.
  20. 2 likes
    Outlook DAY 1 (valid: 29/07/2019) By SWE | Severe weather outlook DAY 1 | 29 July 2019 SYNOPSIS A deep cyclone is moving across the Bay of Biscay towards the English Channel. A weakening upper low is moving across the Balkans towards the east while an upper ridge over Scandinavia weakens while very deep trough / low enters from the NW Russia. DISCUSSION ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for the Bay of Biscay towards extreme NW France and SW England with threat for severe winds, tornadoes and torrential rainfall. Peak gusts could excess of 110 km/h near the center of a deep low moving across the Bay of Biscay while some low-topped supercells with tornado threat are also possible due to marginal instability but enhanced LL shear / helicity. http://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/outlook-day-1-valid-29-07-2019/
  21. 2 likes
    Looking back at a previous post last weekend, and some thinking expressed back then, its clear that the lesser progressive solutions did lead the way in some erratic modelling that was forced into some impressive westward corrections. The closer detail reveals that this weekend is turning out wetter and therefore cooler than could have been anticipated at such a range, and across what is a microcosm of an area in relation to deciphering the Atlantic and European pattern. However, this rather distorts the bigger picture which shows that the very hot airmass has proved every bit as difficult to shift eastwards as these lesser progressive solutions suggested. Indeed it is this same slowness that has resulted in the stalled front and associated rainfall in evidence today and into tomorrow for quite a few of us. The next thing to say, is that very many contributions and updates from a wide range of posters has made this, and other threads, following the modelled progress of the heatwave, an excellent read this week - and so in my opinion a lot of credit and thanks is due to a large number of members for some very detailed discussion and debate Its been an astonishing week - not just for the heat itself, but also ( just for example) the outflow winds from thunderstorms which actually exacerbated that heat on Thursday evening associated with active and prolific 'dry lightning'. These strong outflow winds were picked out by high resolution models - as the EML theta plume (Elevated Mixed Layer) very gradually destabilised set against the very high upper air temperatures that had been 'capping' it - and have been taking so long to displace eastwards Looking ahead, in my opinion a main theme of this summer stands a good chance of repeating itself. The recurring 'spasmodic' blocking of this summer previously discussed c/o a highly unstable polar profile keeps duelling with a very organised low frequency walker cell in the tropics that equally persists in renewing sub tropical ridging to our mid latitude. At the same time according with this, and with our SST signatures helping, an Atlantic pattern fails to sustainably send a procession of lows under any block for a length of time, as one might expect with recurring higher latitude blocks, and instead sees follow up low slow on approach and give the sub tropical high every opportunity to ridge into the void ahead of it. The modelling has shown itself this summer as susceptible to wanting to keep the pattern too flat for too long with the phasing of these lows and instead the sub tropical ridge proves more resilient ahead of it. This is something to watch in the snapshot in time ensemble suites and not take too much at face value from the more immediate suites - but maybe instead judge them from how they evolve during the coming days ahead. Persistence factors alone do not of course guarantee past trends will be mimicked in future trends. Next weeks blocking programmed to the north is likely to migrate westwards with time, in tandem with pressure falling over Scandinavia and also tending to migrate that low pressure west to phase with approaching troughs in the Atlantic . This initially looks set to flatten the pattern to create the illusion of a longer term procession of lows. But as the pattern retrogresses, then this increases the likelihood that a follow up trough will, ultimately, like previously seen this summer, deepen in western/mid Atlantic and so a re-occurring downstream sub tropical ridge response accordingly gains traction, in time, with the modelling. On that basis, the present fall in pressure over Europe (created by a displaced arm of the jetstream digging southwards, elongating the trough that was to the NW of the UK and gravitationally forcing its new centre of low pressure into the continent) represents the conclusion stage of a repeating cycle that commened at the start of summer, progressed its second cycle through July to its present end stage, and over the coming 10 days is looking set to commence its third cycle. The differences between the first two cycles has been that seasonal wavelength changes vs the tropical/extra tropical windflow circulation on the jet stream (the low frequency walker cell and convectively coupled kelvin wave activity in the Pacific) have helped incrementally back the pattern westwards. This trend takes us to the third cycle. So that : 1) In June we saw the trough directly over us, and then immediately following up were still subject to cool air advection influence with the very high uppers that followed. 2) During July we have seen the trough resisted close by to our west. Hence the least progressive solutions verifying and the very warm/hot air advection managing to stick long enough to share the noteworthy conditions that mainland Europe saw in June 3) As August progresses our third tropical/extra tropical cycle of the summer, there is a reasonable chance that we may see a trough sequence further displaced to our west and a more prominent late summer anticyclone influence from Western Europe/Scandinavia. Especially perhaps if some activity in the tropical Atlantic assists in the process. At the moment, the modelling is best 'seeing' the phasing of falling of pressure across Scandinavia (from its latest downstream ridge peak) with the trough(s) approaching in the Atlantic next week. The caution is in extrapolating and making assumptions too far ahead from this - and so not a bad thing to be mindful of the risk of NWP persisting, in error, of this synoptic stage for too long. Too soon to suspect August may follow any alleged underwhelming tradition, even if the ending of July and heading into the new month might appear to be getting off us off to a (relatively) unremarkable start. But temperatures still look respectable over the coming period and perspective has to be set against the spectacular events of last week
  22. 1 like
    Convective Weather Forecast Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 30 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 31 Jul 2019 ISSUED 20:38 UTC Mon 29 Jul 2019 ISSUED BY: null A near-vertically-stacked low (slightly tilted to the NW with height) will drift slowly northeastwards from Devon to Yorkshire through Tuesday and Tuesday night. The associated upper cold pool will overspread warm SSTs and diurnally-heated land to bring a day of widespread deep convection. Showers and perhaps a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms will already be affecting parts of SW England / S Wales early on Tuesday morning, and are expected to expand in coverage across much of Britain through the day - organising into distinct circular bands rotating around the main surface low centre. Instability will increase through the day in response to diurnal heating, with 300-700 J/kg CAPE likely fairly widely, and up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE in parts of northern England and SW Scotland. Almost any shower could produce a few sporadic lightning strikes, although fairly saturated profiles / excessive cloud cover and fairly weak shear will tend to limit the lightning potential. That said, a zone of steep mid-level lapse rates will exist on the northern flank of the upper low, in an environment with some reasonable shear and good forcing aloft, after a morning of relatively cloud-free skies - hence conditions will be favourable for a greater coverage of lightning activity over N / NW England, adjacent Irish Sea and perhaps SW Scotland, especially enhanced by both orographic forcing and low-level convergence during the afternoon and evening hours. As such, a MDT has been issued for the risk of lightning - and here hail up to 2.0cm in diameter will be possible from the strongest cells. An isolated supercell cannot be ruled out if organised convection can develop relatively early before shear reduces through the afternoon. The main threats will be flash flooding from both slow storm-motion (so prolonged downpours), but also shower training over similar areas - especially given already saturated ground from recent heavy rain over the NW Midlands / NW England etc. There could also be quite a few funnel clouds / weak tornadoes (or waterspout) close to the low centre (so primarily in a zone from the West Country to the W Midlands, and later NW England). http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-30
  23. 1 like
    It’s already looking like this August won’t be one to remember....first 10 days looking average to poor, especially after next weekend. Second half salvage job needed.
  24. 1 like
    Goodwood 1:50 - Setting Sail 2:25 - Visinari 3:00 - Hey Gaman 3.35 - Stradivarius 4:10 - Cobra Eye - Nap 4:45 - Lord Riddiford 5:15 - Nkosikazi
  25. 1 like
    I can add another picture to that, does it symbolise thundery skies ? The clouds look rather deep.. and in the same sentence, looks like i'm looking at a land mass made out of clouds.. really can't get any pictures to that draw out what I see
  26. 1 like
    Goodwood Cup Stradivarius Sussex Stakes Too Darn Hot Qatar Nassau Stakes Mehdaayih Stake Option 4
  27. 1 like
    Heat bursts Possibly? Physical Process The examples below and several studies including Johnson (1983) show that heat bursts are characterized by: rapidly increasing surface temperatures falling relative humidity (or dropping dew point) at the earth's surface erosion of clouds and radar echoes strong gusty surface winds These features are typical of strong dry adiabatic descent reaching the earth's surface. Indications are that this subsidence occurs near the dissipating or rear edge of storms. Lapse rates of sounding taken near heat bursts are strongly dry adiabatic. These soundings have features similar to High Plains dry microburst soundings identified by Wakimoto (1985). His soundings were characterized by mid-level moisture around 500 mb (near cloud level), a sub-cloud layer with a dry adiabatic lapse rate, and mixing ratio values of 3 to 5 k/kg. For heat bursts, the physical mechanism usually associated with dry adiabatic descent is evaporational cooling of precipitation beneath a trailing storm anvil. The denser evaporationally cooled air accelerates downward, and if it can penetrate the boundary layer, produces the warming and gusty winds observed in a heat burst. http://www.wxonline.info/topics/heatburst.html
  28. 1 like
    The EPS medium term anomaly this morning is showing a pattern that has been indicated for two or three days now. Low pressure over Europe with associated trough running south over the UK whilst high pressure ridges unto Greenland in conjunction with the vortex lobe/trough northern Canada Thus a westerly 200mb wind field running south of these features across the UK (just) so it is axiomatic that the precise orientation of the east Atlantic trough is important when it comes to the detail which generally is likely to be changeable with temps around average
  29. 1 like
    Sunny Sheffield still at 17.8C +1.4C above average. Rainfall 74.2mm 130.2% of the monthly average.
  30. 1 like
    North West flood warnings as deluge causes travel chaos Rush hour commuters faced delays as heavy rain continued to cause disruption to the North West's road and rail network. Trains were cancelled between Manchester and towns including Wigan and Stalybridge. The A555 Manchester Airport Relief Road remained closed. The equivalent of half a month's rain fell on the region in the space of 24 hours, said the Met Office. In Manchester, canal boat owners feared being swept away as water levels rose. The Environment Agency had 12 flood warnings in place across the North West on Monday morning and said water levels would continue to rise. There were also flood warnings in Yorkshire and the Midlands. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-49149281?ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_north_west_tonight&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=english_regions
  31. 1 like
    Lights on for breakfast in my kitchen at 4:50am - first time I've noticed it this year.
  32. 1 like
    Joe Basta rdi was suggesting the cool pool over Russia would be sufficient to cause another potential plume event here with another trough over the Atlantic... Although the price we're now paying for that last event is thoroughly depressing.
  33. 1 like
  34. 1 like
    Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 29 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 30 Jul 2019 ISSUED 20:16 UTC Sun 28 Jul 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan On Monday morning, a shortwave will swing westwards from the North Sea across northern Scotland and the Northern Isles, associated with weakening elevated convection. As a result, a few showers are likely - the odd one perhaps gaining sufficient depth for a few lightning strikes. By the afternoon the main focus will shift to scattered surface-based convection across the N / NW mainland, eventually drifting northwestwards towards the Outer Hebrides. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, although the % chance is considered sub-SLGT. Slack conditions with low-level convergence and topographic effects may allow the odd funnel cloud to develop. Showers here will gradually decay during the evening hours as daytime heating subsides. Meanwhile a sharpening upper trough to the west of Biscay will evolve into a cut-off upper low associated with a cold pool aloft atop seasonably warm SSTs. The surface low, containing subtropical moisture and reasonably high Theta-W, will slowly drift northeastwards to SW England on Monday evening / night, containing a messy mixture of dynamic and convective precipitation organised into bands rotating around the low centre. However, with time the low is expected to gradually lose its frontal structures, with primarily convective bands then encircling the centre by Tuesday morning. Due to the near-vertically-stacked nature of the low (although some tilting to the NW with height), shear will be fairly unidirectional and hence rather weak, which combined with fairly moist profiles will tend to limit the lightning potential. However, reasonable instability of 300-600 J/kg CAPE could allow some sporadic lightning to occur from the most intense cells. One or two waterspouts / tornadoes are also possible. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-29
  35. 1 like
    For me, this weekend has been wonderful. Managed to cool the non a/c rest of the house down to a reasonable 22ºC from a sultry and hellish 32ºC. The differene is bliss!
  36. 1 like
    great, got builders half way through re-doing my roof, and we're going to get heavy showers / storms and strong winds
  37. 1 like
    That downpour between Kilmarnock and Ayr looks pretty bad and has been going for a while. Unsurprisingly reports of flooding starting to appear.
  38. 1 like
    I feel for the punters at the Y Not festival a few miles away. Dry and baking hot in the run up to the festival and almost non stop rain once it starts.
  39. 1 like
    Looks like a Cornwall corker which will head a shallow NEE direction becoming a Basingstoke banger as it heads towards the north of london turning into a Romford Rattler
  40. 1 like
    It's been exactly the same here a bit further west from you, the hot spell just eased off into an ongoing warm spell, yet another maximum today of 23/24°C and no more than 1 mm of rain any day since last weekend, which was a wet one.
  41. 1 like
    Cloudy morning so far, but I don't mind 1 bit, lots of lovely much needed rain yesterday, along with some fresher air, and no sign as yet of another heatwave. Im happy with that
  42. 1 like
    Sunny Sheffield down to 17.8C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 72.2mm +126.7% of the monthly average. So suddenly well above average rainfall after some heavy overnight rain. Looks like Sheffield will finish between 17.6C and 17.8C.
  43. 1 like
    I am starting to wonder if July has saved this the summer from being a total disaster.
  44. 1 like
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05256-8.epdf?shared_access_token=mE76jzXrLKJrgIPVsQbSF9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OFMupsW5Ox4hA-OEAU-adGUchNhfXw-pc85lmmgVYLVF32tsFBqSYRkT1m-z87r4jIr1wdS_1SNXmXlQjpt1gJvlIqGiq6xtUt8IkTWUIaAA%3D%3D Paper on the impacts of Arctic Amplification on our weathers.
  45. 1 like
    Sunny Sheffield up to 17.9C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall 33mm 57.9% of the monthly average.
  46. 1 like
    Then why don't you ever question whichever station records the lowest temps, then? If you persist in questioning only warm record's validity, then it's you who has a 'cause'...You could, of course, question them all, regardless of whether they are warm or cold; but, that wouldn't fit the agenda, would it? Me? I'll simply take whatever the MetO decides...
  47. 1 like
    Ultimately @Man With Beard is correct - if you continually discount the warmest station because you think it’s slightly dodgy or inaccurate then you’ll be left with nothing eventually. Where is the line drawn and just what stations are entirely unproblematic? If we want to discount Heathrow, Kew, Gravesend, Northolt, Wisley, Brogdale and god knows where else then what stations actually count? Where is the record actually held? Seems to me like certain individuals just want to discount various known hotspots because they often deliver results they simply don’t want to see. I see no valid reason why the Met Office would want to accept stations that are not of high quality, and equally see no valid reason why anyone would place higher stock in the ramblings of random internet users over people who are actually educated on the matter. Certain people have been moaning about this for years, the same boring nonsense came up in 2015 and has predictably made a return now - maybe it’s time to just give up and move on. The aforementioned stations aren’t going anywhere and will rightfully continue to be counted in future records.
  48. 1 like
    This really is the last from me, all available on BBC news site Image copyright Getty Images Thursday was the UK's hottest July day on record, with temperatures reaching 38.1C (100.6F) in Cambridge. But was it the UK's hottest day ever? While the Met Office says we can be sure it's the second hottest, it won't be able to confirm what is apparently its highest reading until next week. Provisional figures released on Friday revealed a peak of 38.7C at Cambridge University's Botanic Gardens. If verified, that squeaks past the UK all-time high of 38.5C, reached in 2003. Why don't we know how hot it was? Unlike the other weather station readings that report instantaneously, Cambridge University's Botanic Gardens only reports at the end of the day - that's why it took the Met Office until Friday to release the provisional figure. The UK's record-breaking heat in maps Why is Heathrow so hot? Second hottest day on record leads to travel chaos Alex Burkill, a meteorologist at the Met Office, explained any reading that challenges the all-time record should be carefully vetted. He says each of the UK's weather observation stations is checked over every two years to make sure everything is still in good working order. "Thermometers should be in shade and in ventilation," he said. "The last time that the [Cambridge University's Botanic Gardens] site had this check was the end of 2017. "Because of the sensitivity of this reading, because it's the highest temperature ever recorded in the UK, we want to double check." How can they be sure? The Met Office has already sent out an engineer to inspect the station and its equipment. "They'll go out, check that the site looks fine, and that there's nothing untoward there," he said. Anything from an overgrown tree to a new building nearby could alter the readings. In pictures: The UK's hottest July day on record As well as checking the area, scientists will pore through all the readings from the day to check there wasn't a spike at the time of the hottest reading. They would expect a gradual increase throughout the day, and any sudden change could indicate some temporary interference - like a car parked nearby. So what are the chances? Mr Burkill said the Met Office would be able to confirm the reading early next week but insisted he would be surprised if the reading did get discounted. "Or another reading that hasn't come in yet might beat it," he said.
  49. 1 like
    Whilst the exciting late night thunderstorm didn’t really clear the air today, it was muggy most of am into pm, it is now a lovely summer, mugginessless evening. And with the sun moved round to the back of the hill, almost calls for a cardigan..... enjoying glass of Galician baixa white wine before cooking Padrón peppers and garlicky prawns to celebrated husband’s birthday, lemon Almond tart with passion fruit and mango curd filling for pud.
  50. 1 like
    Tomorrow my Brother is flying in from Holland ..which means that i`ve got to come back to Earth( with the mortals) for a few weeks....... = end of my NLC season It`s been fun and i`m sure we will try again next year.....Were we`ll learn even more Cheers all
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