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The 6z operational is insane, i'm in shock and awe after seeing that run!!

Beautiful!!!..you want it warmer?..the Ecm 00z delivers

The 12Z GFS shows High Pressure pouncing back over the U.K towards the end of next week with the main area of the Atlantic troughing directed back further North. Generally warm and bright with some sunny spells, especially towards Western UK, maybe still with the odd thundery shower towards the South.

Lovely morning here in west London, looks like a fabulous spell of spring weather coming up. Going to a wedding in Scotland over the weekend so will miss the nicest weather but should still be ok there. Must agree with some of the comments on here about Notre Dame. Yes, it’s a tragedy but most artefacts were saved. No lives were lost and the rebuilding of the cathedral will give future generations an even more breathtaking monument. I can’t help but think of Grenfell and former tenants still living in temporary accommodation. Or entire cities razed to the ground, like Aleppo. Or the fact that in our supposedly wealthy country, over 3 million live in poverty and rely on food banks. Shame the billionaires can’t splurge on them.

And the weekend looks: Over to you, Tony!

So here's a kind of summery (sic!) of my view of what the models and other drivers might be saying as we head into the second half of spring and thence summer: 1. A settled and warm Easter virtually guaranteed, thereafter a less settled spell, but looks short lived or even very short lived before a high pressure regime takes hold again, as per ECM 12z by T240. 2. Quite a lot of this looks like last year all over again, but there are differences, one is SSTs close to UK, these were really cold last year following the Beast from the East, but now are considerably warmer than average: 3. AAM is higher than it was hovering about last year at the same time, possibly driven by warmer Pacific (ENSO), plot shows AAM anomaly for last year: Effect maybe to draw up a series of stronger ridges for UK than this time last year, if I recall correctly the very dry weather was more in the NW at first before spreading to the whole UK in June. If I'm not reading this completely wrong I think there could be more UK wide heat in May than last year. 4. Seasonal models. GloSea5 was strongly suggestive of a hot summer in March, toned down a bit in April, but still above average probability. CFS remaining steadfast in a high likelihood of a Scandi high throughout late spring early summer, and even further. 5. Some comment earlier re drought. I don't think this is likely to be a major issue because of the heavy rains rains in March, that is rain which will be able to percolate down to the aquifers fine without evaporation, which becomes a problem later into summer. All in all, a very interesting late spring early summer season ahead, let's see how it pans out. Regards Mike

Warmth still going strong by mid-week:

The Gfs 12z operational appears to be following the incredible 6z so far in keeping it warm well into next week.

Wow, wow and a big wow, the 6z keeps the fine warm Conditions going beyond even 10 days..... Just imagine this type of set up continuing till September!!! Parched Gardens will be all the fashion.. Coming soon to a place near you!!!!

If the Blue Meanies do stay away, until May 1st, the last fortnight of April will be a thing of beauty!

One thing of note this morning gfs and ecm have extended this warm spell well into next week with a breakdown being pushed back!!infact all the talk of this weekend being warm but early mid next week could be close to hot and humid!!

A chance of upper 20s for parts of the SE; hopefully, a prospect of some heavy rain, too -- which is sure to go down a storm?

The GEFS 6z mean looks great for easter (very warm and sunny) and i'm getting the impression, as others have also commented on that the warmth could persist through much of next week too, especially further east..maybe with increasing humidity and a chance of thundery showers and very warm spells of sunshine..quite a continental feel next week if things work out.

A possible 'short scorch' around next Friday?

Big thanks for your follow-on from my post yesterday @Tamara . Glad to see the trough adjusted west or southwest by the 00z runs as I suspected it would - I can see just enough Nino ‘flavour’ hanging on in the atmosphere to encourage the trough to be over that way instead of in line with or east of the UK. This being how the cycling of the GWO in the positive phases tends to bring about a spring-summertime regime of ridges building near or over the UK, then heading to our east or northeast while troughs destabilise conditions, sometimes with a heat plume involved. Some will grin at this potential. Usual caveats apply of course (such as assuming no major complications arise...).

UKMO again shows the high losing its grip on the UK later this weekend however just how much rain makes it to the east is open to debate the west certainly looks like it'll turn wetter The next few days sees temperatures increasing with the peak on Saturday where we've an outside chance of 25c

Amazing ECM usually when it's winter we have a cold spell flagged up, and it backtracks on the overnight runs! Now we have the cooler unsettled conditions back tracking.... It looks just.... As Karl would say..... Perfick!!!

Its looks like we are in for a milder night as its still 13c and everything has greened up a bit more today.Have also lost the nagging wind. This side of the Firth still very dry as can be seen as young Mr. Northernlights rolls the second last field of spring barley tonight. Horse Chestnut tree in photos rapidly coming into leaf today.

I suspect the detail for next week from Tuesday on will take some pinning down. The ecm has low pressure sneaking north east with a lot of convective activity mid week.

Another amazing Ecm run with warmth holding on further east before heading west again..doesn't look like april will be a record cold month after all!!!

Well for a start that isn't even accurate: Fair to say that since 1970 there has been quite a notable shift upwards compared with before for a much longer period of time than previous upticks. In fact as I said yesterday, there is even a stalling of increases in Co2 emissions around 1940-1960 which does coincide quite nicely with that flatlining of temperatures on that chart. I'd say that actually rather neatly puts blame on Co2. I think its really clear that whilst natural factors do play a part, to shift the average so massively above where it was previously over the last 30 years withut any hint of a decent drop that you'd expect in natural variability.

ECM 12z through to T240: The trough early next week back more strong than the morning runs but it is still run through with a revert to high pressure dominated weather by T240. I wonder if we will see a flatter evolution on the morning runs? Usually in winter the more amplified solutions show on the 12s but here those looking for warmth may prefer the morning runs and hope they recur tomorrow.

Incredible, maybe the 6z wasn't a fluke, the 12z looks warm and probably increasingly humid next week with continental air and a risk of thunderstorms between the very warm sunshine..warmest further east and south / southeast.

Personally Chris, I think sometimes the models do backtrack at short notice. Let's face it, we see these glorious winter charts backtrack constantly to be downgraded.... I think high pressure will be proving stubborn to shift... Whether it be a euro slug type high pressure or heights remaining over scandy! Once these scenarios begin to take place it can become very difficult to break the pattern down. I am also of the belief that low solar minimum is also playing quite a large effect on the jet stream, and coupled with the fact its at one of its weakest points right now.. Perhaps its being multiplied. I understand your concerns regarding drought, but at this stage I wouldn't get overly concerned.... We all know how suddenly a pattern can quickly change! If we have a repeat of last year, I will be shocked, but you just can't rule it out with the current amount of warming going on around the planet.... Definitely worth keeping in tune to the Netweather forum, has we have some excellent climate and meteorological analizers.

There have been so many arctic shots modelled on the GEFS / GFS so far this spring that I lost count ages ago and not one has ever come close to verifying!..pfft..give me P20 instead!!

When I said the Ecm 00z mean is perfick..this is what I mean, get it..mean

I'll see your Permagloom and raise you a Megagrey. Crap weather here recently too, like everywhere. Me and a friend were grumbling away about the weather this morning like a couple of old farts do and both reckoned heated steering wheels should be the next Big Thing for cars. We're forecast for temps to head up towards the low 20s by Saturday now though so mustn't grumble. OH BUT I WILL COS IT'S TITS UP after that.

Me and me cat managed no probs last year Don... Its all in the application....

Hold ya horses there Karl.... I think anyweather will be on later to tell us that May is gonna be an ice age! Only bantering anyweather, I actually enjoy reading your posts

Warmer air is definitely spreading in from the east, as we now have a steadily thickening Rees-Mogg...And, as always happens when a Rees-Mogg rears its head, things that were once clear and easy to see, become shrouded in an all-obscuring haze.

Yes and you mention Don how dry it's been since last summer... Could we be looking at a repeating pattern? I think from May 29 last year up until the 24th July, large parts of the SE barely recorded any rainfall. I think the meaning of a dry day is a recording of less than 1mm of rain. Heathrow over a 55 day period from May 30 to July 23 recorded rainfall amounts of 0.4mm!!followed by Hampton southwest London at 0.6mm, then Kenley in Surrey at 1mm.followed by Cambridge at 1.00m,cavandish at 1.6mm,and High Wycombe at 1.88mm.I think the title went to brooms barn near Bury, St edmonds, this went 49 consecutive days without a single drop of rain! So that's a tuff act to follow, One thing I do feel confident of this summer is that there will be alot of heat building over Europe, so I would imagine some pretty impressive plumes could be hitting the U.k at times.

No sign of cool atlantic air invading on the ukmo 12h..gorgeous easter weather and it stays warm into next week and probably increasingly humid with a chance of thundery showers..trough stalling and disrupting against the block to the east..could be some meteorological fireworks next week.

Friday still looking good:

Well what a lovely surprise in the models today with less being made of next weeks trough and the warmth lasting right out to the end of the 6z run with low 20c all the way. If gfs 6z came off I reckon yet another barmy 27 or 28c could be achieved in April. I've noticed an ongoing trend so far this year that any wet stormy spell keeps getting downgraded resulting in just a day or so of light drizzle.. Wonder if this is just setting the pattern and aligning everything ready for another balmy summer?

Aaaaand the warmth continues well.into next week on the 06z same as the 00z ecm and gfs!!looks like both models have picked up on the extension of this current warm spell out of no where this morning!!just yesterday it looked like it was gona be all over by monday!!brilliant stuff

This is the ecm interpretation which is different as can be seen but still very warm Monday/Tuesday albeit the surface trough creeps near to the south wes thus

Lol I certainly didn’t have any snow either in fact it was probably one of the crapest winters iv ever known here tbh despite all the background signals etc etc, so anybody panicking about what the summers going to be like would be better to just wait and see there will I’m sure be some decent weather along with the usual breakdowns..time will tell but there imo is absolutely no point in looking further than 7 days at the most

Another forward look to summer courtesy of CFS. JUNE! Last 9 runs Z500 anomaly, monthly averaged: None of these suggests higher chances of a poor summer, quite the reverse. Now here the 2m temperature anomalies for the last 5 runs for June. Again I'm struck by the consistency of these plots, anyone betting on a cool wet summer should tear up their betting slips now...? cant remove the chart below posted in error...

Almost certainly, though if the AMO does flip negative and we get a few decent la Nina events then that may balance things out globally for 10-15 years. These happened during the 60/70s which combined with a flatlining of Co2 (maybe due to ww2?) In the 40s and maybe the dimming GW said helped to slightly cool the earth...but it was hardly as drastic as the upswing since then. What's really amazing is nearly every 5 year mean for the Arctic sea ice has ticked down a touch. Worrying for sure!

Perhaps I might start to call said Monckton and Lawson 'bullies' and a 'rabble' who want half the world population to stave....It's certainly the case such mud slinging has worked (so far) for those who dispute rock solid climate science and observations of the atmosphere..

It's astonished me for a couple of decades...If people don't want to hear they stubbornly wont. Over history and in recent time there are numerous example of that sort of behaviour.

Hi Gray-Wolf! Snowball effect underway then. Had a quick read of the article and I had no idea nitrous oxide has yet another threat. The problem is that since very few people live in the Arctic the full impacts of global warming aren't being felt by most of us (yet). I would not be surprised if the 2020s will be the warmest decade on record. Even now we are seeing disastrously low Arctic sea ice extents.

Climate change denial only exists because people want to deny responsibility for the destruction of the environment. Sure, the Earth may have been warmer in the past. However, the planet has warmed by 1C within a LIFETIME! That's almost unprecedented in Earth's history! You'd have to be a madman to deny global CO2 concentrations have increased. Ocean acidification is another clear example of this. It's basic physics that CO2, CH4, etc. are radiatively active gases. It astounds me that people who frankly have very little education on atmospheric physics can discount scientists who have dedicated their lives studying it.

Looking good, with the trough staying out west. For now, anyway:

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is....

An interesting new evolution has appeared on some of the models this morning (UKMO and GFS para still going with massive low over our head for days). The low pressure could indeed sink towards spain and Portugal, gradually sizzling out whilst Scotland remains protected by high pressure over Scandinavia. This would prolong the warm spell, since the low pressure would help pump warm air up from southern latitudes.

The 00Z op keeps us fine/warm until T+324: The FV3 has the promise of some much-needed rain by T+159 and again at T+384: And the 00Z ensemble shows temps peaking around the 27th, and subsequent cool down; the op does end-up on the colder side, however: PS: I don't know why the editor reorders my images???

There is apparently still some uncertainty vis the evolution from this point so moving forward with the gfs should be treated with some caution. By Monday the gfs continues to reassert the amplification of the subtropical high zones, (Atlantic and Europe) and thus 'trapping' the Icelandic trough in mid Atlantic. Ergo another very warm and sunny day, albeit the onshore breeze is back. And by Tuesday yet another cut off upper low has been established west of Iberia with the UK staying warm and sunny, apart of course from the east coast. Best left here I feel

The NH 500mb profile (the cut off upper low to our south west is in the process of becoming a reality) and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UTC UK chart The fronts over the country are slowly becoming a non feature but there is a lot of moisture around in the atmosphere and thus quite a bit of Stratus and mist/fog as can be seen on the chart above.And still some bits and bobs of patchy rain over western Scotland. But all of this should clear through the morning giving a sunny and warm day for most with perhaps the odd isolated shower in central/eastern areas of England. Still the onshore breeze effecting temps along coastal regions. The Stratus/mist will return in many areas tonight and the former may well drift in along the coasts but generally frost free By Tomorrow the cut off upper low mentioned earlier is established and it's warming up nicely, albeit still the caveat vis eastern coastal regions Little change over Thursday night through Friday which is set to be a very warm day with the usual caveat. But worth noting that systems in the Atlantic are taking closer order Over Saturday and Sunday the changes upstream that have been alluded too previously are taking place, with the Bermuda high amplifying and a fragment of the vortex ejected into the Denmark straits as a lot of energy sweeps east south of Greenland. Illustrated below All of this has mo immediate effect on the weather over most of the country over the weekend but a weak cold front tracking south east across N. Ireland and Scotland will bring some cloud and patchy rain to these regions. But generally another couple of warm and sunny days and even the eastern coastal regions included but having said that, decidedly 'chilly' in NE Scotland on Sunday

The warmth cannot come soon enough after yet another day of classic Aberdeenshire Permagloom™. Maximum temperature of 8c, no sunshine and still a cold SE wind.