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Looks like as the final warming-aided HLB spell finally subsides we see a ‘Nino switch’ flipped with a typical struggling Atlantic trough and Scandinavian high combination. Thats the usual predominant pattern with a weak Nino and low solar activity in Apr-July. Settled increasingly warm/hot spells punctuated by destabilisations by shallow troughs which tend to provide some thundery entertainment. Remains to be seen what complications we see from, for example, the cold anomalies in the SSTs just S of Greenland (may keep the jet stronger and HP further S) and the low Arctic sea ice (may enable stronger Scandinavian highs than usual even for the Nino base state, along with more Azores High interplay - if the next few months turn out unusually dry it’ll most likely be the the low Arctic sea ice responsible).

The advantages of a late Easter are we've a greater chance of warmer temps and this year is no eggception Cracking stuff

Looks like we have some fine Easter weather on the way with some warm SE winds . According to the 6z I'd go for the following Friday - Maximums of 14C-19C, high cloud in the west with the chance of an odd shower on higher ground. Warmest in the South, West and Scottish highlands Saturday - Maximums of 15C-22C, warmest in the aforementioned areas, coolest in the east. Cloud cover minimal away from the Scottish border. Chance of a sharp shower over the far SW Sunday - Maximums 16-22C, warmest in the south and scottish highlands. Little cloud although a chance of light showers over Welsh hills Monday - Maximums 17-22C, probably warmest around Cambridge or the Wash. The odd shower may pop up over parts of Central England So a fantastic Easter could be in store and pretty warm too! Though the east may be a bit cooler... So much for the coldest April on record!!

Bank Holiday stunner alert coming up folks..... Make sure your sun smart!

I cannot post the chart on my phone however the pressure build we have seen and will see is reasonably well supported for another week or so as a result of a Nino standing wave which setup near the dateline until recently. It did give way which allowing for a lag should allow the westerlies to return late in the month and through early May but it has been a repeating pattern and so i would expect another wave to set up which allowing for lag is probably going to produce a pretty settled (so likely warm) mid to late May period.

With Easter on the horizon, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean really compliments the eggsellent operational, quite a warm up is expected with increasing amounts of sunshine later next week which includes the long easter weekend. It looks largely settled with high pressure / strong ridging generally controlling our weather apart from a little rain in parts of the west early next week and temperatures could be close to the low 20's celsius next weekend, at least across southern uk.

Bank..nice warm up

Now that's what I call ending on a high..note

All's well that ends well?

According to some of those charts, the next few weeks could feel more like Bake-pril! (sorry I couldn’t resist lol)

Things still look set for a stonking bank holiday:

Out to nearly day 8 and all is looking peachy with the 12z......is summer about to spring early!

Hi Mike, Good question there. I see the cause for confusion here; what I called the final warming is actually more of a tropospheric-driven lower-mid-stratospheric warming that looks to either set in motion or coincide with the beginning of the final warming in the coming week. A decent dual-anticyclone pattern (wave-2) here - this being what we didn't have enough off back in late Dec and early Jan to produce a pure split-vortex type SSW rather than the messy hybrid that didn't work out well for E&W cold and snow enthusiasts (Scotland's seemed pretty snowy, though perhaps not by their own standards?). Goodbye and good riddance, Mr. Vortex!

Very interesting, I always enjoy reading your posts, and I agree with almost all of this. It is the first sentence highlighted in bold that I would like some clarification on, because as far as I an see, the final warming hasn't happened yet! Zonal winds chart shows we're still with winds strong beyond 1 standard deviation in the stratosphere, although with a strong GFS forecast for them to tank through zero in the next few days. So it isn't clear to me how this aids the HLB we've seen the last two weeks or so. Are they both a result of a third process? Personally, I have no explanation for why the HLB has materialised now, to be honest. Other than that it often does at this time of year, which is rather unsatisfactory.

Took my wee puppy, Fingal, on his first ever walk outside of our garden earlier. Tweed running !ow, forest very dry. And here he is earlier in the week:

Longer term here's a few more summery charts in late April!!

Good to see that there's still little sign of any Arctic rubbish:

High pressure staying near us for a long time. After strengthening winds tomorrow and generally more cloud cover during the first half of the week, next weekend looks to be glorious. We could easily be seeing 20C in many areas if models keep on track. A bit grey today in Edinburgh, but still dry. The past few days have been glorious, despite the fresh easterly winds. No rain in sight, although the end of April could bring some change. I can't see it staying wet for long though, as high pressure is always ready to push back in. I hope this lasts all summer too!

Not a bad end to the GFS op, this morning; even some nice T850s, by the Arctic Circle: And the FV3 is nae bad either: Lastly, the ensemble:

Thanks for dredging up the statistics Mike was going to comment something along these lines as well. I don't have the balls to call the summer myself but i appreciate you having a go.. Although the other do have a point that there can be more extreme injections of heat with higher temps in August these often seem to be plume set ups and generally don't last as long compared to some longer settled and warmer spells in July that sometimes come off. Anyway moving on from that debate now i'm going to do some analysis of the model output from today so far and hopefully i make some sense As others have said the ECM goes from this : To this in 24 hours : Seems a bit progressive as others have said and these Scandi/Euro highs usually like to cling as long as they can. Although it could be on to something who knows! Compare this to the ICON at 180 hrs and it has the HP a little more in charge and is a little less progressive albeit we can't see the 192hrs chart but i'd imagine the LP wouldn't be as influential as with the LP system than the ECM. The GFS seems to be signing to the tune of the ECM also although maybe it's a little less progressive with the low and it is attacking at a slightly different angle and that could make all the difference. The question is are they being overly progressive and emphasising the LP system and Westerly's too much and resorting to usual bias or have they latched onto a trend for it to become more unsettled after the weekend before maybe another similar spell occurs down the line. The second option is of course a middle ground where the LP isn't being overegged by the Models or final option is they are overdoing Westerly signals yet again and HP will remain in charge for the foreseeable. All to play for at the moment as the summer is still some time away and things may set up more favourably for a more prolonged spell if this upcoming settled spell doesn't last down the line.

Stick with it Mike your doing a grand job, forums need posters like yourself.... And me also..... Obviously..... And Karl and Pete for entertainment value....

It's Sunday, good weather promised but not yet arrived, so a good time for one of my CFS updates. As most of you will know, a single run of CFS is meaningless, it needs to be considered probabilisticaly. I'm looking at the outlook for summer, and as (in my opinion) summer is now May, June, July, let's look at what the model is showing for that middle month June. Here's Z500 height anomaly for the last 8 runs: The reds are over the UK on every one, the sixth might have us in northerly flow, but it is one of 8. I think the 2m temperature anomalies are more interesting, here from the last 8 runs, again for June: These charts clearly show a pattern to above average temperatures in UK and Northern Europe and lower than average temperatures in Southern Europe. Northerly tracking jet stream, I think. I'm sticking to my earlier thoughts on a hot summer for the UK, possibly with more thundery interludes than last year. A way out yet though, we will see. Chart below is not relevant but I can't seem to get rid of it!

I can't really think of a better looking GEFS mean with the Easter holiday just around the corner......... perfick timing!

I'm not buying the GFS 12z, here T150, T192, T222, T360: Well, I'll accept the T150 that is plausible and probably expected, but I'd be surprised if the low/trough in the middle period of the run comes off to that extent. Let's see.

I wouldn't fret about it, models look increasingly much better later in the week ahead compared to this week, let's just sea what happens, you may be pleasantly surprised.

Friday still looking good:

According to the GEFS 6z mean it's going to be a Good Friday..Saturday..Sunday..Monday

The GEFS mean looks mean!

Could we be on the cusp of something special -- again?

Just had a peek at the GEFS / ECM mean and it's clear there is some fantastic weather on the way, especially by the time Easter arrives, warm with plenty of sunshine.

That becomes a really good Ecm run for warmth and fine weather..better than the 00z and that was pretty good!

Super pics, HC, of a beautiful part of Scotland. I particularly like the breaking wave.

Just back from my first ever and very brief stay on Harris. What a place. The weather held fine for us so we were out all the time despite us needing several layers to keep the warmth in (and suncream) I rediscovered my love of beaches... these Luskentyre and this was the sunrise through thin cloud at Drinishader one morning (about to go for the ferry to N. Uist.) These are near Ballyshare on N. Uist Never seen so many different birds. I'm guessing no foxes, badgers, pine martens etc. There must be more oystercatchers there than anywhere else I've been. Also lapwings...

Icon looks glorious folks.... Low 20s no probs..... Its gonna be a long and beautiful weekend..... Don't do anything I wouldn't do..... Sun can make you do strange things!

Yes, August 1990 and 2003 are both good examples of this. 37.1C recorded 3rd August 1990 in Gloucester and 38.5C in Faversham (Kent) on 10th August 2003. I wonder if 40C will be breached this summer?

Not in recent years, Matt, last time was 2003, since then Augusts have been a bit rubbish, but in trying to form a view about the summer, it is easier if you discount the final month as it is so difficult to predict given the timescale. That is not to say trying to predict May June and July is much easier!! Why some of us including me try as a hobby is beyond me!

Yeh, that's what I thought, August last year run out of steam, but is very often a time of the year when heat records can be smashed.

I really wouldn't call westerlies rare, 252 -- not in any season -- maybe 'less common' would be a better phrase? Anywho, the tail-end of the FV3 doesn't seem to be going anywhere in particular: The ensemble appears to have lost any indication of anything too cold:

At least Easter looks nice, not concerned about beyond that as most will be back at work and as we know, FI flip flops..models look great for the upcoming holiday which is the most important thing in my opinion.

Severe gales for a select few tonight/early hours..

I think it is looking increasingly unlikely Chris. Most of the models are showing a northerly tracking jetstream and while there may be some wobbles with that, the area least likely to be affected by rainfall is the SE. Looking at the longer range forecast models, I think a dry hot summer is most likely for the SE, although slight backtrack from that from GloSea5 this month. The wildcard may be thunderstorm activity, but that is not likely to kick in until later than the end of month period you are interested in. Of course, others may have different views as it is all beyond the reliable timeframe.

Most will probably see this as a 'turn for the worse'; those of us needing some rain, may not agree:

I can keep you informed on the current weather situation..... Has for the rest.... Bit out of my pay grade..... But I'm sure Mike Poole, singularity and the likes will be glad to help!

Even the CFS wants to get in on the action, a definite warming trend, could we be looking at the 2nd fine warm Bank Holiday April on the bounce.....

And we should be still basking on Tuesday: But, as a caveat, who recalls May 1980 -- when things didn't evolve into the marvellous summer so many were predicting?

Here’s to a long, dry, hot summer.

Just thinking today in spite of the sunshine the wind was very chilly and night time temperatures are still too low for sustained growth.In fact night time temperatures for the next two weeks are low. I often think spring is the one season not to succumb to the warming trend with its tendancy to give winter a second chance in most years. This habit of keeping cold outbreaks going is one of the biggest handicaps for agriculture in the north of Scotland and this year coming on top of three very dry preceding seasons is putting a lot of pressure on farmers. Thankfully we had a good crop of swedes (turnips) which provide a lot of energy to the cattle while we are waiting for the proper energy giving grass to grow. Also cattle rely on bugs in their stomachs to digest their food and it takes up to six weeks to change to new bugs to specifically to break down fresh green grass so today the cows went out to a little fresh grass as part of the process in changing from a winter diet to a spring one. Currenty clear and 5c

Another sunny day but the wind did have a bit of a bite to it did make it feel chilly at times

Saturday should be positively spiffing:

Friday looks good!