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Well that's me done on the cold and snow search for this year. Of course there's always the chance of a late March early April surprise but I wouldn't bank on it. The winter showed more promise than it ever delivered for many members on this forum. I count myself lucky to have had at least one very decent snowfall (10cms) which stuck around for about three days. Which is not to be sniffed at on the south coast of England. Hopefully next winter will bring something better to all my cold and snow loving fellow members. Until then enjoy spring and summer my friends and I,ll be back in the autumn. (Unless of course a snowy surprise turns up in the next six weeks lol.)

Highly unlikely. Sustained Easterlies/North Easterlies (3-4 days plus in duration) in Winter across the UK are rare. Once every 5/6 years maybe (on average)? Many on here need to grasp some basic UK weather realities ahead of next Winter (and future Winters), instead of being sucked in by a few internet 'heroes' saying "It's coming" or "the models are wrong".

Short - term, more of the same, unusual early warmth, with heights close to our shores and a southerly drift, but some cold nights - reminding us it is still late February, large diurnal range in temperatures. As we enter March, we finally lose the ridge and a resurgent atlantic is forecast thanks to significant cold air spilling out of the eastern seaboard, and a strong PV to our north, strong enough to prevent heights from quickly ridging back north. Some chilly air also for the north, snow on higher ground and average temps generally, which will feel cold after a protracted very mild period. Longer term - the strong PV, is going to lock in some very cold late season air, I would say chances of a potent northerly episode are high as we move further into Spring, the cold air will want to displace to mid lattitudes once the PV weakens. A late season snowfall certainly could happen this year.

They’re giving their subjective opinion safe in the knowledge 90%+ of the country feels the same. Not everyone wants to be a miserable cold lover either!

Looking at the Gfs 18z for the week ahead, between Mon / Fri it continues very mild and fine, pretty much bone dry across the board..this late winter weather has really stuck the knife into coldies and then twisted it for good measure!

Well..the 18z at least shows a risk of snow in early and then again towards mid march as cold air digs in behind some beefy atlantic systems..so hopefully some interesting weather in march..for coldies..well, the few of us left!!

At last it would now appear we're about to see a long overdue end to this omega block from next weekend. While I appreciate many are enjoying the early Spring warmth brought about in part by this block I won't disguise the fact I'm eagerly looking forward to a resurgent Atlantic. Whether this upcoming unsettled spell proves to be protracted in nature remains to be seen but any change from what we've had to endure for so long now can only be a good thing.

Hi evening peeps Hope everyone is ok and you all have had a nice relaxing weekend. It's been really warm today here in Walthamstow North East London even seen people with t-shirts. What a sight on the 24th Feb, did we ever think at the beginning of the winter season that we would be looking at exceptionally high temperatures on this day. What a difference a year makes. This time last year we were all jumping with delight and could not wait for the arrival of the beast. Alas that is the weather and sometimes we win and sometimes we lose out. Its a bit sad really have got so used to this forum during the season and now people are slowly one by one leaving the winter train. All that is being left behind is the towel that was once clenched but now has been thrown. Before whoever is left out of the coldies on here decide to leave I just wanted to say a big thank you to you all. The posts have been amazing and the atmosphere has been so family like. There are the more knowledgable ones who have put so much effort in collating different factors and sharing their great knowledge. Without you I would certainly have been lost. For those who will hibernate untill autumn I hope you have a great summer and stay safe and look forward to seeing you on the next winter train. That leaves those like me who will remain here for the next search humidity and thunderstorms. Let's hope we have a great storm season coming especially night time storms. There is nothing more really to add except this winter has taught us a lot and one thing a lot of us will remember is that no matter how good outside factors may look there is no guarantee the weather will follow that. The search for my winter wonderland this season has come to an end. A new chapter will start again in autumn. Wishing you all a lovely evening stay safe kind regards

Pretty uninspiring Model runs again this morning, for the cold weather fans amongst us, looking for some late season snowfall. So, on the premise, "if the snow won't come to us", I'll bring the snow to you!! If it's ok with the Forum Hosts, I'd like to put together a little "travelogue" of Northern Italy. I decided to take my son, Antony and daughter Hayley, on a week's break to their Nan's homeland, during the first week of December, 2003. The problem was, we all worked together in the same Office, in Croydon. So it was impossible for us to have longer than a week away, together. Our Office Manager was very accommodating, in allowing us to all have the same week's holiday. Hayley and Antony, outside Naples Airport, about ten years ago. I decided on a week in Milan. To have gone to my Mother's home town of Caserta, near Naples, we would've needed at least 2 weeks, when you take into account the amount of relatives, we would've needed to visit. I also had noticed that Antony was showing signs of developing the same hereditary illness, Huntington's Disease, that his Mother had suffered and sadly, subsequently died from. With that in mind, I wanted to have a week's holiday with both of them before Antony became too ill, to travel. I'm so glad I made that decision, as all three of us had a very enjoyable time. I decided to base ourselves in Milan and we'd each choose a "themed" day of special interest, to each one of us. Not surprisingly, Antony chose a football match at A.C.Milan's impressive, Giuseppe Meazza stadium, San Siro.: To keep it weather related, the Northern Italian Plain can be quite a bit colder than the U.K, in Winter. Plus cold air seeps down from the Alps, into the Valley's, below. If memory serves, the temperature on the night of the match, dropped to -5c. The match was never in danger of being postponed, as like in England, all the top Italian Clubs, have under soil heating But we managed to warm ourselves up with some hearty, steak baguettes covered in a delicious sauce!! We felt so cold after the match, that we stopped off at Macdonald's for a burger and warming coffee, on the way back to our Hotel. The stadium has the appearance of a Space Ship, from the outside. It has a capacity of 80,000 but it was less than half full that night, as the match was a "dead rubber". Antony was a bit unlucky, as the great majority of Milan's first team were away in Japan, playing in the World Club Championship's. As A.C.Milan had already qualified for the Knockout Stages of the Champion's League, meant that fielding a weakened side, didn't matter a jot. As it transpired they lost 2-1 to Spanish side, Celta Vigo. Antony still got to see a fabulous goal from Milan's Superstar Brazilian, Kaka.We even thought about making the 2 hour journey by train to Turin the following night, to see Juventus play Greek side Olympiakos but train connections were too tight and we would've had to leave the match with still a half an hour, to play. We ended watching the match on TV, in our Milan Hotel. Shame we didn't get to Turin, as Juventus thrashed Olympiakos 7-0!! Antony consoled himself by buying an A.C.Milan tracksuit, before we returned home. Hayley chose for her "themed" day, a trip out to the beautiful city of Verona. She had considered Venice but it's a bit too far away from Milan, to fit in a day's sightseeing there. Verona below: Verona lies on the River Adige, just S.E., of Lake Garda. We got to see the tourist attraction;s of Verona's amphitheatre. And also we got to see "Romeo and Juliet's" courtyard and balcony: The walls are covered in writing and "love letters" have been placed, in the Courtyard's brickwork. For my "themed" day, I chose a hopeful "snow chase" westwards towards the French border and the Alps. I planned a rail journey out to the village of Pre-Saint-Didier, obviously French sounding but firmly inside the Italian border. We took a train from Milan to Turin (amazing value of 8 Euros, then). Then took a train on to Aosta, principal city in the Aosta Valley: Then we boarded the local "rattler", to Pre-Saint-Didier. We eventually arrived in the delightful Alpine town of Pre-Saint-Didier: We didn't experience any falling snow but a very hard frost lasted underfoot, throughout the afternoon. We strolled around for a while, taking in the beautiful, Alpine scenery. A view of the Mont Blanc Massif, from Pre Saint Didier: We were only a short distance from the skiing resorts of Courmayeur and La Thuile. We grabbed a warming coffee, in a local Hotel. The Hotel was pretty deserted, as we were still outside the majority, of the skiing season. Didn't hang around too long as the owner, gave me the "creeps". He was a bit too "Bates Motel-ish, for my liking. Told the "kids", not to ask for a shower, along with their coffee!! We spent the other few days of our holiday taking in the delights of Milan, Il Duomo, Milan's Cathedral: Plus, wandering around the amazing Galleria Vittorio Emanuele, Milan's luxury shopping Mall: Perhaps, Hayley enjoyed the "shopping experience" the most. Shopaholic female members would love Milan. Virtually every shop is either a clothes shop, (especially leather) Profumeria (Perfume retailers) or shoe shop. Antony, of course, enjoyed the Football aspect of the trip. Yours truly loved the stunning Alpine scenery.. The only falling snow we got to see during the week, was on the way home when our Milan to Paris express stopped at Bardonecchia, an Italian Alpine ski resort, right on the border with France. The train stopped for about 15 minutes and Hayley popped out in a mini-blizzard, to light up a "ciggy". My daughter is as much a snow "junkie", as myself!! Although, Antony and Hayley found the train journey too long and "boring" (their words not mine), I loved it. They spent the whole duration of the two journeys, listening to music and playing on their Game Boys' IMO, you are travelling through countryside you are unlikely to see many times, if at all again, during your lifetime. The French SNCF trains (TGV Expresses) are fast, efficient and comfortable. Paris to Milan, was a little over 7 hours and you get to view some stunning countryside. I found it fascinating going through places like Lyon and further S.E, the very scenic Chambery, before you enter the Alps. We all had a fantastic time. I even had the chance to use my very "ropey" "O" level French on the Paris Metro, when buying some "jambon et fromage" baguettes plus the little smattering of Italian,that I know! Now I wonder if I qualify, for a cheque from the Italian Tourist Board, for that little lot! I really hope the Forum Hosts are ok with this post. As I stated, if the snow won't come to us, I'll try and bring it to you. Regards, Tom.

A serious lack of sunspot activity - like about 600 days on the bounce without a single sunspot, an E-qbo, a medoki El-nino, a -PDO, a conistantly favourable MJO throughout the whole season, the aforenmentioned Nino coupling up with the atmosphere, ie - a big - SOI resulting in huge +AAM throughout the season, off the scale +MT event resulting in a massive SSW which splits and propagates, the strat then staying favourable throughout, and even then a lot of luck on top of that.

Looking at the GEFS 12z postage stamps in the mid and especially longer range, there is certainly the potential for occasional snow..as there also is on the operational..especially further north...I think march could bring at least some wintry weather at times within a generally unsettled pattern that takes over from next weekend.

Not really one for spring ramping so early, but some really usable weather over the next few days coming up so enjoy it if you can folks, I would have thought 18-20c possible in the desired locations, not often we witness such warmth so early, and hopefully this will be a precursor to a marvellous summer! Temps back down to bog standard March affairs as we progress, but if there is know snow in the offing, then bring on an early summer I say!

Sums up today's weather here 9.3 C low of 3.2 C overnight and a few from yesterday

6.5 to the 23rd 2.8c above the 61 to 90 average 2.2c above the 81 to 10 average _________________________________________ Current high this month 6.5 to the 23rd Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

Hazy sun and 23C already. Could be a scorcher today.

What a great day for February - a real tonic. Wall-to-wall sunshine and 15C. The garden chairs came out lunchtime and me and Mrs Blessed sat in the sun for an hour. And then ending in a beautiful sunset.

It was a downhill weather day today, starting off with a hint of frost, hazy sunshine and ending up with total low cloud cover. In fact, the Angus coast at Montrose during the afternoon had quite dense fog/mist and felt cold at 6C. No appreciable wind though. A couple of pics from the garden this morning. I'm not sure whether or not these trees have been influenced by the warm spell and are flowering earlier than usual but surely are an indicator that spring is not far off. Corkscrew Hazel Willow Willow

You can’t be very old if your asking that or just being awkward,the U.k. rarely has easterly outbreaks lasting more than few days you, could even check that yourself by looking back through the archives,they go back to 1870 so plenty of opportunity to see that is correct.

The basis of my post SS was to demonstrate that March looks more seasonal than this past month, with alternating colder and milder days, not to pick out whether it would be dry or wet on that specific day.

Certainly not boring weather for those of us that enjoy being outdoors on our days off and enjoy dog walks. Another beautiful day to come, clear & sunny here.

The models seem to be showing solid confidence in the upcoming pattern, so little to report viz cold. UK HP for another 4 days then 2 days of trough disruption as the HP hands over to the Atlantic. Zonal then up till D? though less likely the very cold variety as the Atlantic/Euro/Azores High tries to push north, ergo less cool and drier in the south possibly (the op highlights this, but tentative ATM). Around D9-D10 a chunk of PV send PM air across the UK, so a chilly few days there. With the trop PV showing few signs of relaxing, maybe coupling with the strat, I would suggest the MJO signal will be possibly muted as the base state reigns. If Winter is to have a late flourish then now likely the second half of March. However, there are no signals for this and based on the rest of this Winter, my hopes are low for a final hurrah! The CET is already at +2.7c above climate, so rare warmth in February, and with November and December each around +2c above climate, this has been an exceptionally mild winter, against all the expectations. We will probably pay for it with a cool and wet Spring, unfortunately...

GAME ON!!! Coldies rejoice, Now back to reality!!!!

Disagree - boring is wind and gales. Sunny, warmish and dry - close to perfect - can it last for the next 8 months?

lots of good to be said about the cold. kills off the bugs, what about other countries that swim in sub zero temps, between visits to the sauna. It's good and healthy for the body. it's too soon for all this warm crap right now... and the weather will balance out later on

Yes, don't get me wrong I'm a coldie but I only chase it seriously from mid November to mid February, unless there is a beast from the east or huge Greenland high lurking... Any other form of cold doesn't really get anywhere as snow can quickly melt, that's even if it manages to settle... Today felt fantastic, was sat outside fishing and the carp are biting already. The sun felt warm and there was barely a breeze or a cloud in the sky. Can't get any better for late February and almost everyone else feels the same.

Great day today. Lovely weather. Nice doing things in the garden and out and around. Heating off for a few days. Great! Obviously this does not apply for those who hide in a darkened room looking for a snow flake. Get outdoors and do stuff. Ok we are likely to get some chilly weather but make the most of what we have at the moment. We are only now going to get annoying cold weather from now on.

With the exception of February 2017, Februarys since 2014 have all been sunnier than average for England overall to varying degrees. 2019 is following suit.

Groundhog day again. Sunny, warmish, dry. 17c. Boring weather for February. Signs we may get some more interesting weather by next weekend.

Cold weather makes me feel alive. Nothing better than going out without a coat on on a nice cold dry day. I'm a joyous cold lover, it's the heat that makes me miserable.

There's nothing fabulous about it. Why assume everyone wants the same weather as you?

Subject to confirmation Wales has had its warmest February day on record

It is the fourth time that South Ockendon has had fog, this and three times since Friday morning. When fog comes to Thurrock it seems to come like the buses in three's or more. The last time it has been this foggy was in late October of 2008, where there was fog for five or more consecutive days in a row. I find fog to be very restful and peaceful. I do not know if fog in February has any effect on if the weather will be warmer or cooler. There is a thin layer of cloud covering the light blue sky but the sunshine has not been as bright as it was on Friday and Saturday.

All looks like bog-standard March fare, to me: some sun, some rain, some mild, some cold. And, given the models' collective showing, these past three months, it might be better to ignore the lot of 'em?

It's my 'bag of fag packet' guesstimate (well based on 50+ years of being on this earth); hence i added the ?

What a glorious day it is today very pleasant indeed with the strengthening sunshine very noticeable now

Still and almost feeling warm in the hazy sunshine. It's February and I am outside in a T-shirt. The weather has malfunctioned!

Absolutely beautiful morning here. Calm, pleasantly warm and sunny. So far we're above the mist and fog that's affecting other areas. I can see it clinging to the Forth from the window upstairs.

The CET doesn`t show a lot as march 1995 was the best cold zonality that month has given for snow as far as I`ve been alive. Snowcover for 14 days here that month.

The new site does not seem any better to me and the basic forecast updates are, as mentioned above, almsot never updated like the old site was. Very poor. I might even stir myself and send an e mail about it.

Well this month will generally be remembered for being fairly mild and very sunny with clear skies forecast for the next few days with the mix of frosty nights and maxima in the mid teens. Docer castle was lovely to walk around yesterday in very light winds with a chill only setting in once the sun began to set.

Thick luminous mist and 3C here, I hope the sun does come out but it looks unlikely just now, can hardly see the hill behind me.

Big 3 up to 144... UKMO ECM GFS

Sorry I should have said with a 10 day lag, here you go: https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2012/12942-prediction-madden-julian-oscillation-and-its-impact-european-weather-ecmwf-monthly-forecasts.pdf Thanks for your comments above, those analogs are interesting, but I do believe the reality of the Nino event we have been through this season, kind of changes the definition, and ultimately is telling to watch the atmosphere is doing in terms of momentum transport and propagation, compared to using oceanic ENSO measurements. Sorry to have to say the obvious, but I do go beyond that initial idea.

Same here, there's also this strange white sheen to the grass in the shaded parts. If it was winter I'd say it was a frost, but we all know its not winter any more.

Normal service has resumed back down to 2c this morning though with wall to wall blue skies, sunshine and no wind.

This is for any coldies who are left on here..very FI but who cares!..something from the GFS 12z & GEFS 12z!!

Staggered out for a walk today (still suffering with Labyrinthitis and have the added joy of extreme anaemia and vitamin D Deficiency - Scottish curse - popping 8 pills a day so sound like a marracca when I move). The air was balmy, birds very busy and crocuses poking their heads up. It was beautiful. Now itching to get up north in the camper though will have to wait until I'm safe to drive.

Maybe the person who does the updates has now been sacked for gross incompetence.

Thanks for sharing this. I'm not so sure it will be that wet in the UK though; I'm not seeing the +NAO correlation to MJO phase 3 under a weak ENSO base state: It could become much wetter if the Nino base state establishes more firmly, but there's few historical cases of this happening while the MJO's in phase 3 in March so it's hard to be sure; The red outline denotes poor reliability. Still not a +NAO though - where did that link come from, may I ask? Incidentally, it's a similar story for MJO phase 2, except that the Nino pattern is a mystery as there are too few historical cases to form a meaningful composite. Notable what that indicates with respect to Indian Ocean MJO activity an an El Nino base state; they just don't jive with one another! With the question of how much wetter or not it turns in March to mind, it's caught my eye that GFS is keeping more and more of a split jet formation in place as the new month gets away. Such configurations are often broken down too readily, so the ridging across the UK might well prove more stubborn than recent modelling has suggested. On the other hand, UKMO's a lot less interested, and ECM was even less so last night so who knows, it might be a garden path situation from GFS. Aside from this minor curiosity, the model output and overall signals going into March could hardly be less interesting. Maybe something warm or cool could turn up from the east or southeast if the MJO phase 2-3 response takes on a neutral ENSO shape, or it could be that it's more Nino-like and we see a windstorm or two, but otherwise... yawn!