Leaderboard

I felt a sudden uncontrollable urge to say...BOOM..BOOM..BOOM..sincere apologies!

Astonishing comment! Just because your location is not well above average it means that this mild spell is nothing noteworthy??

7-8c above average in many places is exceptional. You cannot spin it any other way! Of course, there is a variation throughout the UK, that is why we use CET. 13-15 c forecast for my location for the next 7 days. It is also extraordinary as it is not a one-day wonder! Although the Fohn effect has assisted in breaking the records today, those records no doubt were also subject to that effect! This is February!!!

It will be (today) and has already been 7 or 8c+ warmer than usual for the time of year. What terminology would you use to describe the weather becoming cooler?

It does begin to look, from the synoptic models, that some kind of Pm airflow is going to develop beyond about 6-7 days. The anomaly charts though still do not show a concensus out to day 8-10, see below https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php NOAA is showing nothing like the upper air pattern required for this really. The air, at 500 ,b, is shown to originate from quite well south in the Pacific for northern Scotland. Nor does the 8-14 show much change. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html The EC version does show a more Pm westerly type flow with quite cold air for northern Scotland. Also some indication that heights may be rising in the Greenland area. The GFS version does not though, although I find over the years I have compiled these charts that the EC is more often closer to what we get than the GFS. However the proviso has always been that all 3 need to be suggesting about the same pattern before any reliability can be placed on them. I'll come back to this, on here, in 3 days time!

His point is the high temperatures are localised and require specific setups to reach most of the time was the all time UK record dependant on the fohn affect

Scottish February record broken, Aboyne at 18.3C. A record that has stood for 122years, Aberdeen 17.9C https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9420-weather-february-record-broken-in-scotland-today-after-standing-for-over-100-years

And even less to do with model output ....

Still continuing with the downward theme on the 12z ensembles, cold enough for snow at height and especially north, got a feeling if Scotland gets a fair bit of snow, a fair few on netweather may be taking a wee break up there! I know I bloody will!

Its been painfull watching this very mild period unfold but i have accepted it and now looking forward to some gardening .Looking at todays charts March looks like starting more Zonal , so who knows we could get some polar or arctic flows ,with some snow about .Great forum on net weather , certainly a great place to learn , take care all and dont forget the Sun cream ,sausages are on ,brown sauce on table cheers .

outlook - In the more reliable short range major upper troughs, with a myriad of surface features, are generally confined to the Atlantic with the European high pressure remaining influential. So generally dry with temps at times considerable above average but sorting the cloud might be a bit tricky. The NH 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the WV for 0300 The deep low in the Atlantic is slowly filling and and drifting east of Greenland but the associated warm front is bringing cloud and patchy drizzle to the north west from Wales up. This will clear during the morning but cloud may linger in places in the north but generally where the cloud clears it will be a warm day with temps getting into the high teens in places.Perhaps in NE Scotland where they may get close to the Feb. record for Scotland.I'll post the WRF temps out of interest but they are not to be taken as gospel Overnight low Stratus will drift north across the south coast into southern central areas with quite widespread mist.fog developing This will clear slowly through Friday but as can be seen another low is tracking north west of Ireland and the associated cold front will bring some rain into N.Ireland and western Scotland by late afternoon. Overnight Friday and through Saturday the above mentioned front moves away north only for another cold front to slide in from the west to bring some more rain to the north west. Elsewhere dry and another warm day with temps way above average. Essentially over Sunday and Monday active systems continue to track north under the auspices of the upper trough to the west which, courtesy of this and the resilience of the ridge, ensures a continuation of WAA into the UK and thus a dry and very warm couple of days with any fronts kept on the periphery.

A balmy continental spell ahead - if this was summer - a major heatwave, alas it is only late February, but still temperatures will be on a par with average temps experienced in early May. It will do wonders for spring bulbs, bringing a very early spring in complete contrast to last year, when we had a very delayed one. It does feel very Feb 1998.. Longer term - strong signals the atlantic will break through as March arrives with temperatures back down to average, which will after a week of unusual mildness feel chilly. Every chance we might pull down some colder air from the north/north west as move through the first week of the new month - all very normal. Had we not such a strong northern polar front jet and strong PV lobe over NE Canada, we could have been staring at a notably cold spell similiar to this time last year, with trough disruption and easterlies then able to penetrate - we are not far off such a scenario, alas too much energy is going to ride over the top of the high, forcing it to collapse. You can see why the Met Office were suggesting chance of colder easterlies/north easterlies, but they haven't come off - bad luck this year! On a personal note, this current impending spell is about a month too early for me, I can't get enthused about it, too early in the season, darkness setting in before 6pm still - hence I've not been in the thread much past week or so and won't until we kick this spell aside. On this note, goodbye winter 18/19 promised much, teased far too much, gave back very little. We are entering March-May soon, when unusual synoptics can pop up out of nowhere, spring is the most tricky season to predict, and its the most interesting season in this respect, when the probability of the atlantic winning out is at its lowest, I'm hoping for more varied affair than we've become accustomed too over recent months, when static patterns have long tired my patience.

I realise today's temps are of great interest from the point of records possibly being broken, and I certainly don't mind the warmth, but it does feel very unseasonal and a bit "strange".

16c here and the crocuses loving it. Me not so much away for a shower after feeding and bedding inside cattle.

The GEFS mean illustrates what I meant by the above comment

Yep. Apart from, erm, the widespread record breaking warmth ?!

My new profile photo shows snow shower coming in off the Firth from the north on the 26th of April 2016. Still time for snow up here this spring. Today just seemed wrong.

just tried to find it and I done https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ (homepage) > click on services at the top of the page then sectors then public sector https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector#?beta then click on climate services > climate science > climate observations https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide/climate-dashboard and at the bottom of the page click on UK climate https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate that will give you a list to pick from , the one I used was in the climate averages and then just put the location in https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate hope that was helpful (I agree it certainly is not straight forward to find! ) Temperature down to 11.9 C now think due to a small breeze that developed over the last few hours , didn't manage to get to 15 C with the max temp still 14.6 C some pics from earlier think we have swapped with Las Vegas, they have the snow and we have the sun / warmth

Maximum here of 15.2c and feeling very summer like when the sun was out, tempted to unearth the sun lounger Variable cloud all day and generally light winds. Saw the first honey bees of the year this afternoon and ladybirds are everywhere - any cold snap in the coming weeks is going to have a disproportionately bad effect going by how far ahead everything is. View north today towards Bennachie.

For the first time in quite a while it felt quite pleasantly mild (no gloves required) on the dog walk this morning. The commercial daffs are well advanced and looking to be on the point of harvesting, say in a week’s time. I was looking back old photos and have one of pickers in the field dated 02.04.2018. And the Skylarks are in full song. Currently, partial cloud cover, temp 12C and a gentle SW breeze....Fine.

I think we are buggered now to be honest.

Here's the latest 12z ensembles, quite a dip as we head out to the end!

PV over our side can we get a ridge mid Atlantic? If not what has the PV got left over Canada? Last fling

With the core cold on our side of the NH for a change, even a zonal flow can deliver short sharp spells of cold as lows march across the UK arena, and Arctic air moves south: Most of that cold will be from the following ridge, so cold and dry after a cold front slides south. PM air following in the wake...

The warmest day in my back garden since mid November, 18.8 C and very little wind either. The airport, some 3 miles away showing winds up to 20 mph at times with temperatures reaching 17.5 C

Imagine you were an Aboyne Cattle Farmer and you read the Met Office long ranger a couple of weeks ago and were therefore expecting North Easterlies and likely ice days with snow, you would be planning to keep your cattle in their sheds and maybe ordering feed, i.e more expense for the farm. The reality is the temperature is probably some 20 degrees WRONG at a relatively short time frame. Some farmers will be counting the cost.

Just imagine what it'd be like in here, were it to be 8C below normal, for this many days - with another six to come...

The high temperatures are not localised at all! Many central and northern areas are recording 15-17c. The poster's location is probably cooler because of the english channel moderating effect.

Remember when Aboyne equalled the UK January max record of 18.7C. Three days later it has this with a sub zero max and heavy snow showers. Unfortunately this time that is not looking likely!

Given that last evening's runs were indicating a breakdown to more unsettled weather this mornings are not without interest.So continuing with the gfs. The next upper trough does duly arrive on the scene, courtesy of the Canadian factory, and tracks east to disrupt the incumbent trough and push fronts across the north on Thursday with quite strong winds. The high pressure does put up some resistance but this is quickly swept aside by increasing upstream pressure as the Alaskan ridge and Canadian vortex make some fairly significant adjustments to their orientation. Whether this comes to pass is another matter

Well with no snow for the foreseeable on low/high ground it is time for me to rank this Winter...I give it a 3 out of 10! Couple of dustings in January. My only saving grace has been the surrounding hills/mountains - the highest I can see from my window stands at 600 meters (Creag a’ Chanuill) and that has only had a cover on nine days this Winter which is really poor! Basically these pictures have gave me my snow joy - although short lived! It is also good when you have a wee hill behind you (Tower Hill at 98 meters) that gives you this view on a perfect Winter’s day - looking out to the Arrochar Alps. I was hoping to get some good pictures of the grey squirrels/deer passing through the back of our house with snow on the ground...it wasn’t to be. Thank you to everyone who has shared pictures/posts this Winter - always great to see and read all the contributions. I am heading up to Aviemore from Saturday to Wednesday so I am off to pack my shorts and sun cream. https://stv.tv/news/scotland/1435681-african-heat-to-bring-hottest-ever-february-day-in-scotland/ All the best and let’s hope we get a scorching Summer with some proper thunderstorms! See you all in November! (Hopefully next month at some point though!)

Well I wasn't gonna post em all Feb, the bottom line being they pointed to an extremely cold and blocked january

Quite a day all round, but I didn’t realise it was this mild! Wish I’d been in Altnaharra!

Yeh your right, it's a big dip compared to what we currently have. Is this gonna be a case of as good as it gets, or can we expect more of a downward trend! Unless a major SSW takes place with one hell of quick trop response, perhaps a period of cold zonality with the occasional northerly toppler threw in as good as it gets. As Mike points out the chances of any extreme are low. I've basically given myself til mid march for something of note to occur, after that matt wolves will become the heatwave seeker!! Hell yehh, bring it on.....

It is quite a dip - but it’s worth remembering the average 850 temp at the end of feb is around -3c. We are running at about 8-13c above that for the next week or so, any correction back towards normal will be steep! We’re just heading back to normal, nothing especially cold.

ECM mean suggesting a return to normal westerly conditions by the end of the run. Well that's the form horse but we'll see. I'm not posting much at the moment, not because I'm a coldie only, just because the interest has gone flat after a year when it has held pretty much constantly. I started posting regularly here in late Jan last year, when the SSW was clearly forecast in the model output which later led to the BFTE ~1 March, some 6 weeks later. Textbook. Or so it seemed, fast forward to this winter, this time an 8 week SSW drama to comment on, but it delivered much less, yes the period late Jan early Feb, which was great for snow SW and Central Southern England but that was it and many missed out. A fail. In between and starting right after the cold early spring was a memorable summer, very interesting to comment on. I just feel slightly underwhelmed by the next couple of months as I expect them to pan out, it will get colder into March, it could not do otherwise given current warmth, but I don't think we will see anything like last year. And summer, well the long range models look good for heat at the moment...I'm keeping my eye on this and will comment as and when....

It looks like the dry spell will come to an end next week as westerlies win out

In certain places maybe, but in a fair few locations temperature have been on a par to an average day in May! To say wildly overstated is a bit extreme RR.

Been updated now Spotless Days Current Stretch: 21 days 2019 total: 35 days (67%) Solar flux 70

All this proves of course is what most of us already know. That is that in the supposedly extraordinary mild spells it is in fact just a few localised areas that get exceptionally mild due to extreme localised Fohn effects whilst most other areas just endure averagely mild temps. At my southern location maxes of 11 and 12 so far this week in a chilly breeze. Nothing abnormal for late Feb mild spell so far.

What a day, mild and sunny here in East lothian. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9420-weather-february-record-broken-in-scotland-today-after-standing-for-over-100-years

the 1400 UK chart EDIT Aboyne has reached 18.3C

Aboyne has set a new February record of 18.3C

15.6 c here, it was 16th April last year before we got to that sort of level, should be a law against it really...

Wish it was record lows being recorded.. its just not fair its winter and i want me snaw back.

True, the Atlantic SSTs likely cooled off since Jan after the persistent cold Pm air crossing towards Europe into early Feb, but I would think with longer daylight and higher angle of sun there will be greater moderation of the moist long-fetch maritime flow come early March, a drier cold continental flow or drier arctic northerly wouldn't be affected so much by the longer days/sun aspect, as we saw in March 2018. But be interesting to see how cold a Pm flow will be in early March and whether it can produce much in the way of snow away from high ground, I would think more of struggle than earlier in winter.

Disagree with that though, its comfortable in a T-shirt for me, except when it starts raining or goes cloudy perhaps, but i would rather have that than being too hot in high temps because there is no way i would ever wear shorts, i am a 40+ grown man, not a child.

The chances of a spell of colder weather in early March look less likely on this morning's ensembles, although they still suggest a chance that temperatures will gradually decline from the notably mild levels in the second half of February.

Little doubting the direction of travel on the GEFS ensembles this morning, a distinct downward turn in temperatures. Aberdeen Derby London The pressure pattern tells a story too bringing lower pressure in, so cool/colder and less settled the likely outcome based on this run at least. Vs climatology it's also quite striking, starting at much warmer than normal before slowly edging cooler, to end the run much closer to, or below normal.

Will you come down and cut mine?