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Outlook - Warm, very warm for a time, and relatively dry but tending towards a NW/SE split The NH 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight and the Chatham, Cape Cod, sounding for same time just to show the measured 190kt jet over the eastern US There is currently still a fair bit of rain around over the north west as the waving cold front continues to move slowly south east, and this will persist through the morning but slowly fragment on it's travels as it reaches Wales and the Midlands by late afternoon. Another mild day but cloudy for most apart from the south where there will be sunny intervals. The front will slowly clear most areas overnight but still generally cloudy with bits and bobs of rain/drizzle around, mainly in western regions. Another frost free night except perhaps for northeast Scotland where is clearer. On Thursday we are in the pattern that has been discussed previously so will skip any repetition and suffice it to say becoming dry and warmer with perhaps some cloud and patchy drizzle in western parts early on Overnight Thursday through Friday a similar, very warm and dry, day but the complex upper trough to the west is taking slightly closer order and some rain may effect the north west from a surface cold front. Another very warm day on Saturday, these temps are not written in stone, but we now have twin cyclones to the west and the trailing cold front from the initial one, now near Iceland, may bring some rain to the far west late on. As the two cyclones adjust positions overnight Saturday through Sunday the weakening cold front will finally traverse the country so cloudy with sunny intervals and maybe just a tad cooler

We've seen some hints that maybe the MJO signal briefly finds its way through with less interference, but no more than that... so here we are looking at further distorted pattern responses. The MJO always drives amplification when active, it's where that occurs that differs depending on which phase it's in and how much interference there is from other factors. This week and next, the amplification is being distorted such that the height rises focus a fair way further south and east of the usual response. This being via stronger westerly flow persisting on the N flanks of the subtropical highs, essentially 'rooting' the major height rises to the subtropics as very resilient mid-latitude blocking features. There's no dive south and undercut of the polar jet to enable some HLB to take shape. Generally, that jet behaviour is the critical prerequisite for some at least transient HLB to occur, while a negative AO is the one for sustained HLB to take place. So even without the AO co-operating i.e. the SSW downwelling as hoped, were it not for the Nina-like interference, we'd likely have seen variable HLB during the second half of this month, which is good for battleground scenarios. One of the darkest sides to being aware of long-range weather prospects, is knowing what you could have had, when it's all gone awry. For me, the most frustrating thing about the past few months from a professional perspective has been that due to unusually poor modelling of the MJO, we've had no reliable indicators for whether the interference would continue or come to an end; all we could do is watch the observation data come in and then adjust expectations accordingly, by which time the period of interest has been within about a week's range instead of two or three. From this comes an important point - it's not usually this bad! So that's something to look forward to I guess .

Our air will be coming from the caribbean for the next few days (modified by the atlantic) before switching to the canaries / nw africa!..not what the longer range outlook was indicating last month is it!!..anyway, hopefully during March we will experience air from the north pole and even russia!!..

I don't mind / care what timeframe it is..it looks nice and we haven't had much eye candy in recent times for coldies!!

@Benvironment @Hairy Celt @edinburgh_1992 I think they should add these gifs to the forecasts adding up my totals so far for December, January and February it totals out at 92.4 mm and adding up the 1981 - 2010 average that total is 193 mm so that is 47.8 % of the rainfall that we should have had. I tried to find Greenlaw stats but the nearest they have is Charterhall https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gcykcv8b2 but no sunshine stats (just click on averages table for easy view of stats) 11.6 C and some angry looking clouds here , looks like it might get up to 15C here on Friday might be nearer the 17 C + mark for those of you up north everybody round to @Ravelin's hoose for some sunbathing and a BBQ @Big Innes Madori will bring plenty of Madori to go round

Both GFS and ECMWF seemed to have backed off warmth for Saturday, which had been earmarked for peak of warmth, high pressure over Europe appears to be extending further west, so not such a strong southerly flow away from the far west, having said that, temperatures still in the mid-teens on Friday and Saturday afternoons, which is well above the seasonal average, but the 13th Feb 1998 record of 19.7C looks less under threat. Almost overlooked tomorrow afternoon, Netweather's SR model indicating 17-18C over north Aberdeenshire and Moray - likely from Foehn effect in the lee of Highlands/Cairngorms. EC has 15-16C in similar area of NE Scotland, also across Vale of York

To continue with the gfs, As can be seen at T144 there is still a lot of energy exiting the eastern seaboard so essentially the 5-10 period remains a battle between this and the resilient block With such strong forces at play the distribution of this energy plays an important role in the detail of the surface analysis (partly explains inter run variations) and this morning, despite some variation in position, the blocking high pressure remains in control over the UK so remaining dry with temps still above average.

Ice cream van alert!! Icon says if you can't get the - 12 uppers, don't worry we will send you the +12 uppers! Approaching 20c.... Wow, just wow

Instead of writing "noticeably gusty", they should just call it "fine Scottish weather".

The laughing faces have gone from the list of post responses, so for me, apparently 26mph gusts will be enough to blow branches off trees. Erm no. Apart from, where else are the fkn branches are supposed to get blown off? The sides of house perhaps? Or will the wind be strong enough the uproot lamp-posts and scatter their entrails over the pavement, bringing despair and nostalgia to the cats watching from neighbouring bird tables? MO forecasts recently look like they've been written by some semi-literate f**kwit with no interest in the weather.

Eh? What exactly constitutes a 'special' mild spell for you in February? For a start, it's looking like the best spell of mild February weather since at least 2008. And tomorrow until at least next Wednesday would certainly be classed as prolonged and by no means 'quick'.

ECM has pretty much 9 days where maxes somewhere top 15c, with multiple 16-17c. This is likely 1-2c too low for local maxes so could well see a 18-19c Max at some point in the next week. Possibly the mildest last 10 days of Feb ever coming up?

The models have, as expected, corrected their over-amping of heights to the north. They are now back to where they were indicating pre-X-flow. With the developments, we have sustained UK HP for another day or so, but by D10 it is sinking SE. Those extra two days have helped build up lower heights in the Canadian vortex, so a ready supply of cyclones awaiting their journey to our sector. By D16 the mean: AO>> The wedge of heights on the AsiaPac side directing the PV to the Atlantic region traversing to our north. We have seen this before this winter and it is usually transient, so maybe a week of March dedicated to some sort of zonal flow. The AO index heading south as that wedge messes around the Arctic fields. That wedge will eventually mix out or get drawn to similar pressure sources. Maybe further height rises in the UK/Atlantic region will find an opening and the cycle will restart. The wedge continues to send cold to lower latitudes but sadly the UK will need a reset to get the severe cold flow to the UK. However upper air as we near D16 is closer to climate: London>>> As @knocker mentioned, the jet stream is currently a powerhouse. see https://www.latimes.com/science/la-sci-sn-jet-stream-flight-20190219-story.html Watch out for the dust: https://twitter.com/MeteoGib/status/1098115396173991936 Some very mild air to come before month's end suggesting a CET of +4c above climate for Feb!!! Enjoy!

Its tight..(no pun intended). But the terminal forcing-and upper shunts-are of switch and turn..the The tenplated are of that..'change afoot'. In the oceanic/atmospheric feature. Late..YES.. of value..also yes. Most mods/notes have atm a polar maritime switch to note what has been looked 4..but there..THE CATCH IS..as in the 2m temp conts which fail/and have failed via data stackes for months. The pac ridge/annom has designed the nor hem weather/climate and governed..for 10/12 weeks.. But now relaxes the overall format..and folds into a polar hole/annom..of massive feature.as a present presented via models.. The missed notion of many/-including model conscience-is thats is that..the miss dynamic of both coupling and strat/trop bigger..and better..ie 1 cant couple..without the other giving way!.. Sadly for spring weather fans they have both now missed eachother..and left upper dynamics in a soggy mess And like a chlid painting a picture with toffee in 100c heat..its ending up an unpredict..mess.. But that mess has 2 be cleaned up..and b4 it is has 2 work out the best evaluation of such...and some1 has too suffer... So if you like a cold..very late WINTER..early spring shock...then you are the picked janitor.. The polar V will split and down on the already un-effect latts.. 'Lets say the UK'.. HMM undoubtadly. Its the most lagged..yet already gone RESPONCE in likely history... But the worst of winter for our shores..will come off- the back of some notable late winter warmth.. Dont ya just love it!!??

Can I be the first to welcome @knocker back to the asylum full time !

Latest forecast. Same graph as yesterday first, and a new one with the 2019 mean, 81-10 mean, record high and low, and top and bottom 3, and 10. Latest 06z is a tad warmer than yesterday, with a final value of 7.1C forecast, and an upper and lower range of 7.5 and 6.5C (all before corrections). We will come close to breaking some records for the next week, starting tomorrow, when the mean CET is forecast to equal the record high value for the day of 10.6C.

The latest enso update shows that en nino has re-established so perhaps a better chance of a cold spell in March. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

GFS forecast 2m temp anomaly for the next 7 days suggesting the UK average will be +4.6C above climate. Taking actual temps to 20th Feb and adding the next 7 days, a forecast anomaly of +2.4C for the month. Next 7 days Feb actual to 20th + 7 days Looking at the 3-day mean 500hPa height anomaly forecasts 27th Feb to 1st March from GFS and ECM there's very good agreement that NW Europe and the UK remain well and truly under the influence of high pressure. Both GFS and ECM had the MJO entering Phase 8 around the 14th Feb. ECM then moves quickly through to Phase 1, whilst GFS meanders around 8. Adding the typical time-lag to take us into March, the composite 500hPa heights anomaly for both Phase 8 and Phase 1 in ENSO neutral conditions both suggest a much more favourable pattern for the UK would normally be expected. With little sign of that in the extended forecasts, as others have written, it looks like the Nina-like base state continues to interfere with expectations (disappointingly, not for the first time this winter). MJO Ph 8 composite Ph 1

Latest ensembles courtesy of GEFS, still a downward trend as we head into March. Fair few scraping the - 5 mark.

never mind lamppost watching its all about the tree watching "Gusts will be strong enough to make whole trees sway." "Noticeably gusty, will be strong enough to make larger tree branches move." "Gusts will be strong enough to make small trees sway, but it shouldn't blow you over." "Noticeably gusty, will be strong enough to make larger tree branches move in the afternoon." https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcvz0r35b#?date=2019-02-20

Ha ha.. A 'how warm will it be thread'... Quickly followed by..@bk to cold hunt. Its fantastic in here @times.. And the reverse psycology.. Is bang on the button.. Xx @big love My paywall..and analysis is fraught.. Enjoy your mild..false dawn.. X

Spring may well be approaching but the ensembles are trending back to winter! After what could be record February warmth I wouldn’t mind a bit of March snowfall

Nice to finally see the high pressure retreating somewhat towards the end of the ECM. It's incredibly boring weather, I'm looking forward to a bit of wind and rain hopefully.

Well with no snow for the foreseeable on low/high ground it is time for me to rank this Winter...I give it a 3 out of 10! Couple of dustings in January. My only saving grace has been the surrounding hills/mountains - the highest I can see from my window stands at 600 meters (Creag a’ Chanuill) and that has only had a cover on nine days this Winter which is really poor! Basically these pictures have gave me my snow joy - although short lived! It is also good when you have a wee hill behind you (Tower Hill at 98 meters) that gives you this view on a perfect Winter’s day - looking out to the Arrochar Alps. I was hoping to get some good pictures of the grey squirrels/deer passing through the back of our house with snow on the ground...it wasn’t to be. Thank you to everyone who has shared pictures/posts this Winter - always great to see and read all the contributions. I am heading up to Aviemore from Saturday to Wednesday so I am off to pack my shorts and sun cream. https://stv.tv/news/scotland/1435681-african-heat-to-bring-hottest-ever-february-day-in-scotland/ All the best and let’s hope we get a scorching Summer with some proper thunderstorms! See you all in November! (Hopefully next month at some point though!)

We're forecast to get up to 17C tomorrow. 21st February - the weather's broken.

Yep, if they were showing well above average SS it would be nailed on. Just like the models always deep in fi

This thread reminds me of December 2015 with Knocker and SS providing 70% of the content and lots of oranges and reds on the anomaly charts. I didn't think for one minute that this February would turn into such a horrendous month for cold and take my mind back to that month! It was an interesting post from Singularity above. I suppose the message is that good background signals for cold can also work against us. Presumably the bad background signals for cold will always be bad ! I have just had a skirt through the GFS 12z NH view. Very little to get excited about based on this output. Just look at the air pressure over Iberia. It never gets below 1024mb throughout the run ! The only positive I could see was that pressure was rising over eastern Canada by the end of this run and the jet was arriving on our shores via a NW/SE trajectory. Its a long way off,certainly colder but not what the coldies amongst us would crave ( cold 850's on the GFS from PM North Westerlies are always overstated) but it may however lead to something better going forward. My gut feel and experience however remains confident of a cold and snowy period at some point during March, but more than likely mid month onwards.

Just the one? You must have had a huge one with all that heat?

Funny as it did my cucumber the world of good.

when you say huge?...can only see a couple inches here..

^^ God I really wasn't in a good mood this morning! A bit breezy out now but as @edinburgh_1992 didn't say, just another day in hell Scotland. Certainly no airborne trees, although the gulls are getting horny now and they like a good blow (fnaar fnaar).

something like this

Unrealistic cold crossing the Atlantic there, I find it strange we were sold the fact the GFSp was going to be considerably superior to the current GFS, it’s cold bias has been dreadful all winter, it’s been on par with the CFS imo absolutely useless.

Absolutely garbage 6z, yet again each model run pushes any colder shots further back into (fi) it's now getting to the point of know return! What a soul destroying winter, not only have the background signals been about as useful as a one legged man at a butt kicking contest, the 5-10 day charts on cold weather have been laughable. They have nailed it everytime with the mild conditions, but my god whenever a cold shot as come into view they have constantly pushed it back another several days! Perhaps it's time to join the hunt for spring and put this miserable attempt of winter to bed! Not even one sustained northerly in 3 months!!

This Winter is set to be the Mildest ever recorded at many stations in Ireland, incredible, especially given the Background signals . I'm hoping for some colder weather before March is out just to kill some of the insects lol

You might have heard that the FV3 overblows snow in the US, 18z run ends on epic March snow in another day or two, after the end of the run! One of many options on the table for March at this point!

This thread is open/and designed for both you and your seek out..followers. I fear for yourself-and the false dawn spring seekers here. @outliers.. You know yourself-its a climbing dynamic..when either..or ither..are folding on out rite miss dynamic...is the breach of change in the model dyanamical synoptics. The out-guided format..is closer to HIT...THAN MISS... When in a repeat sequence...

It's a stunning Ecm 12z ensemble mean for much of it's duration tonight..high pressure domination and with air, for a time sourced from the canaries / nw africa we will see max temps widely into the mid teens celsius range.. around 60f and even higher in places, closer to 18 / 19c..around 65f in the most favoured spots..t-shirt weather in february!!?️

Another sunrise..... Work stuff took me to the Fraserburgh area today, and so took a lunch break along the coast to Rosehearty. Weather was OK, just, mainly overcast with not too much of a chilly wind and the temp hovering 7-8C. The main interest there, apart from the usual cormorants and gulls was the fairly distant, continual stream of Gannets in single file returning to their breeding colony at Troup Head. Blurry pic! Edit: Forgot to mention that the full opening today of the Western Approach Road snipped at least 30-40 mins off the journey.

Well im not aloud to post in the model threads so had to have some form of outlet...

Ha ha! Given there's no snow maybe I'll take up tree watching instead. I'm incredulous that anyone could release this version, content that it's an improvement on what was there before. Looks a right mess. I know folk don't like change but the feedback seems almost universally negative just now. Hopefully it'll be tweaked :-s

Ti, have you been reading William Shakespeare or something!! In the meantime something a tad wintry as we enter the spring season!

And then you look at this, pub run T324: A bigger schism than the Labour Party for sure!

@ciel - nice to see the gannets like that - all streaming one way to their breeding ground @Northernlights - who'd win a fight between a lynx and a badger? I reckon the lynx would know better than to mess with a badger and there'd be no fight. The badgers are cleaning up all the resources in places like Moray and there's no space for lynx. Today started brightly but was overcast by lunch. But NO WIND!!

6.6 C with rain on and off here 1.7 mm so far had quite a few ladybirds here at the end of last year not seen much since. "Bigger Eurasian lynx hunt deer and other larger prey in addition to small animals." https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/mammals/group/lynx/ Diet/hunting The Eurasian lynx eats a wide range of prey but tends to focus on roe deer whenever they are available. In their absence other ungulates, including red deer, are typically favoured, and various other small mammals are also often in the diet. Lynx will occasionally hunt gamebirds and, quite rarely, sheep, they are a strict carnivore and will eat 1-2kg of meat per day. http://www.lynxuk.org/lynx.html

easterlies showing for 7th of smarch......2020

CET forecast to the end of the month So, the graph above has the max and min, both provisional and forecast, in red and blue respectively. The mean daily CET is in green, and the cumulative average is in grey/white (with light red and light blue for the likely upper and lower ranges). Finally, the 81-10 rolling average CET is in orange. At the moment, the 06z GFS has a finish of about 7.0C and I estimate an range of 7.5C to 6.1C. The low end is further from the forecast as the remainder of the month is likely to have several days close to record highs, so it's unlikely the GFS is over estimating temperatures by a lot. On the other hand, a subtle change could cause the final few days to be much cooler than currently forecast, hence the potential for finishing quite a bit lower than the 7.0C mean. I'll play around with a few formats and designs for these over the next few weeks. Let me know what alterations or additions might make them more useful. For example, I could remove the max and min and replace them with the record high and low averages for each day, or a top 10 and bottom 10 value, etc.

5.7 to the 18th 2.1c above the 61 to 90 average 1.4c above the 81 to 10 average _________________________________________ Current high this month 5.7 to the 18th Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

Missed the showers here today now 6.7 C after a high of 9.6 C did get a pic before it got dark with some showers in the distance

Some sunshine in between the heavy showers took this picture today of a rainbow. All week its been mainly cloudy, windy and mild and it looks like this is going to continue for another week.