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Outlook - Trending towards a NW/SE split and very warm for a time The NH 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UK chart The low to the west of Scotland slowly drifts north east during today but bits and pieces of old occlusions will continue to bring heavy showers to N. Ireland and western Scotland, coalescing at times into longer spells of rain. At the other end of the country, in the south east, the current gloom will continue with further outbreaks of rain during the day courtesy of the old cold front still being a nuisance Elsewhere sunny intervals but perhaps the odd shower. Temps a little above average Tonight the low will continue to track north east to be west of Norway and the cold front in the south also finally clears. Thus a generally clearer and colder night, maybe just a touch of frost in places, and showers confined to the north west So a chilly start to tomorrow but then a fairly pleasant day for most with lighter winds, courtesy of a very transient ridge, but the nest frontal system approaching from the west with bring rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and western Scotland by 1400. And this will spread east and effect northern England and Wales through the afternoon. Temps still a tad above average It will continue wet and windy in the north through Tuesday night and Wednesday as the complex system tracks north of Scotland with the south of the country remaining dry. temps trending well above average. But to the west the oft mentioned deep low gas arrived on the scene and is 939mb in mid Atlantic Over Thursday and Friday amplification occurs with the Atlantic trough digging a fair way south and in the process initiating a long South westerly fetch into the UK and thus some very warm air So a very warm couple of days with max temps in the lap of the gods but certainly mid to high teens. Any rain rain confined to the far north west Wrong thread Will the string of garlic and the silver crucifix be sufficient?

Tbh Crackerjack I was one of many who got suckered into the freezing cold winter predictions from the big guns!! I spent some time researching these background signals myself, for example MJO phases and SSW down welling, and you know what I've come to the opinion it matters not a jot!! Certainly not on an island the size of the UK. Just one little instance can throw the whole procedure out of zinc. Back in the day it was a case of, if high pressure builds to the NW or NE, its game on!! Now it's all talk of rosby waves and these fancy elaborate words! It matters not a dam in a climate of this size. I remember to this day that bold prediction by the met a few years back on BBC, Alex deacon saying live on air, it looks like a barbecue summer!! And I thought how foolish to make a prediction like that in a climate like ours!! Never again was a long term prediction like that to be mentioned in the public eye! I should have known better about getting suckered in. All I am seeing now is slight interest in FI, and it quickly gets watered down! And yep, you guessed it, only 10 days till march. Background signals in future, should be as the name implies!! They should remain in the background. Still hopeful of a snow event, but relenting cold as faded quicker than my bloody hairline.

You and me both, Don. Still think they'll be a "sting in the tail", as we enter March. I'll order one of these with extra fries, please!! https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/1/1/mar1970.pdf Regards, Tom.

Been dry here for a week now and no rain in sight at the moment!!models look like something you would see in july or august!!fanatastic warm weekend coming up for most of the uk!!!may the summer looking charts continue as long as possible cos my craving and excitement for snow has completely diminished now!!!looking forward to another hot summer hopefully!

Wow, that's some cold pool staring us right in the face! One last chase peeps!! Come on I'm up for it!

Every season is getting warmer. Those who can’t acknowledge that obvious fact are in serious denial.

Spring has sprung for the vast majority of Europe

Is it tho? People said back in the 90's & 00's that extreme cold was done for the UK but then in the last 10 years we've had record breaking cold events. Just because this year has been a stinker for coldies doesn't automatically mean future winters will be.

Complete opposite expressions from my front room!

Someone's knocking at the door, somebody's ringing the bell.... For god sake let em in!!!!

It's actually quite alarming that in years to come the cold hunt thread will become a joke..hmmm, it already is!

Is it just me, or has the ha ha Icon been removed for posts, just as thanks and like now?

Some exceptional models this morning and an amazing contrast to this time last year! I'm increasingly confident of daily records falling and I feel that there is a chance the all time records fall as well, mainly as this is looking quite sustained with at least 4 days where +8c 850hpa air is around, maybe longer. Maybe we may see our first winter time 20c? Not impossible.

@london @Aberdeen... The notion of a v-late winter early (so called spring)..climb down takes a hop-skip...an, a jump this evening.. Also hp cell starts retract-and align of a somewhat notable slant... The variable dynamics are starting the fold... Need a keen eye on a jump for heights syphon further north east..with even a more notable hint of retrogression....'perhaps'... We -are not done here!!!!!

Whenever someone praises Ian you come out of the woodwork to criticise him and you have done this year after year! His forecast was much better than net weather’s or any other that I have seen. His call on the SSW is commendable because he was the only one who said that it wouldn’t lead to cold weather for the UK. At the time, the ECM long range was showing northern blocking galore and easterlies for the UK. Even the met office kept predicting easterlies and northeasterlies since late December, only to gradually push them back and eventually cancel them altogether.

With all the towels now thrown in, I expect some very cold charts to appear in the next couple of days.

Yeah okay - a very delayed March 2013-style tropospheric vortex split event it appears, but given the vertical mean zonal wind profiles of late it's more likely to be tropically-driven (MJO into P1) with some help from the lower stratospheric vortex not being in a rampant state (just near-average which is pretty tame in early March). Even with the Nina-like interference ongoing, EPS look a bit too happy to propagate the MJO merrily on through P2-P3 at a fairly quick pace (nearly all members are doing this; it's quite odd actually!) so if a major HLB episode is to appear in early March, I don't expect them to pick up on it until if and when they change their MJO projection. I've had this nasty feeling that March would yet again prove to be a winter hangover rather than a launchpad into spring, but at this stage place it at 1/4 odds given the tendencies of recent months.

The nwp ops are headed to a possible NH split around day 10/12. If this begins to gain traction, then all bets are off as the month turns ........

It's time for my Chuka Umunna moment and time to throw in the towel on this Winter

The fact of the matter is that most winters of the last 30 odd years have been milder than what was the long term average before then, and cold spells have been much less frequent and prolonged enough cold spells to lead to cold winters overall have become a very rare commodity in the last 30 years, and after all, most years in the CET record have recorded annual CETs above 10*C during this timespan as well.

No we're not...There's no evidence of that, anywhere...

Might this help? Lowest minimum temperature: Lowest value of the daily minimum temperature for each calendar year, averaged over climatological reference periods. UK: 1961-1990 average -8.5 °C; 2008-2017 average -6.8 °C. Shown us that the lowest daily minimums on average have been rising, even with very cold spells in perfect synoptic conditions? Might this tie in with our ability to breach record low temperatures?

Well well the models show what cold lovers don't want to see which could be exactly to our favour and the complete opposite to them showing what we want to see beyond 7 days Don't believe what we are seeing but instead realise that we could be seeing another cold spell brewing towards the end of the month,this week's spring can easily change to next week s back to winter, still too early to write winter off I say

Its about time the EC46 received its p45 and did one

No towel chucking from me. Those charts on ECM from 192 onwards in the northern hemisphere view are quite potent, with a few little tweaks, we'd be staring down the barrel of an Omega block.

Funny day here, had everything rain/sleet snow, hail, thunder and lightning, warm enough for convection as so late

There's a glimmer of hope for coldies in the outer limits of the GEFS 12z with increasing snow potential developing during early march!..well it is still the cold hunt thread isn't it?

some interest on the 12 gefs days 14/16 …….. i only comment because its the 12z suite rather than the 06z which has tended to be the more wintry one over the past couple months

It drops to -18c in my freezer!!..that's where I get my cold fix this winter

Complete horse crap, I've never been interested in showing off and am not rich so couldn't anyway, what a sweeping and ludicrous statement. My house and the previous one are generally hot of a night from May to September and I find anything over 22c uncomfortable to sleep in so for me it's something I've always wanted. We're all different.

The Background Signals

still more accurate than anyone else which doesn't say much, but he was spot on about the SSW. I'm comparing him to net weather winter forecasts and others with their front-loaded backloaded heavy loaded winter lol. October Fog Index was best

Live pictures from SS front room

ROFL, that has got to the coldest westerly flow in decades

06z ICON showing 16c in parts of NE Scotland and NE England on Thursday Daily record is 17.5c Banchory, Aberdeenshire in 1974

And so my towel is thrown into the ring, an amazing winter if only for the sheer persistence of low heights to the North west! Incredible duration stretching back to November!! Hopefully a nice summer to compensate for a truly rubbish winter!

Most accurate winter forecaster on the site, so that would be a good idea.

Late winter and early spring are a common time for fires as there's a lot of dead material lying about, When new growth gets going the vegetation layer is damper. Also it's often windy with quite low humidity. We seem the same thing in the UK most years with March being a particularly drying month

Some fantastic weather the last few days, glad winter has finally done one, looks like we could be pushing 17/18 c, maybe even warmer next week - incredible compared to where we were at this point last year.

I hate to say it but now a good chance of 20C being reached during the next week. As others have said an incredible difference to this time last year!

Good news for coldies, the Ecm 00z isn't quite as hot as 24 hours ago..it's still very mild / unseasonably warm though.

If a series of charts could sum up winter... GFSP 240/264/348h Seemingly good NH profile, plenty of "potential" as an elongated high gets pushed to a NW and forces a negative tilt on western LPs....and...no slider, the thing collapses, and this "winter" goes on. ECM is no better as the 240h is as flat as the week-old lemonade in my fridge: Anyone fancy crowdfunding an attempt to dump a load of cold water into the Labrador sea?

Very frustrating isn't it?! I ranted about this a couple of years back when the same thing happened. It was explained to me that mild in FI will always trump cold verification due to these islands default being a maritime climate,therefore models have an easier job with the 'crystal ball'. Think this coming 'heatwave' was flagged at 384hrs.

Might be looking at my first open water swim of the year in March instead of April with the amount of warming taking place now ??

ridiculously mild weather on the way later in the week,the models picked up on this beyond the reliable time frame and of course it’s verified ,if it had been bitterly cold air ,most likely it would not have verified 9 out of ten times Thats what’s so frustrating about u.k. in the winter,always mild weather will verify cold weather hardly ever. Looking forward to a cold and wretched spring when the weather gods decide the time is right for payback.from all of this. Think the record could be challenged for february highest ever temperature,so at least some interest even if it’s for the completely opposite of the thread title

Some sunshine in between the heavy showers took this picture today of a rainbow. All week its been mainly cloudy, windy and mild and it looks like this is going to continue for another week.

Been sunny most of the day, started clouding over around 4pm. Felt very pleasant in the sunshine

Ive been spat at and slapped...and kneeded-in the knackers..... Keep an eye on the annoms.. @500 geopt ht!.. Watch the divulge in evo..of height alignment with a STIFF-easterly flow.. And yes counterparted with notable isotherms!!!. Wear ya t'shirts...but keep a wooly hat; n jumper to wack over the top... @backloaded @winter strikes bk!! He whom laughs last...LAUGHS LOUDEST!! TA-LAR 4 NOW..

Something truly extraordinary seems to be going on now and until further notice. Seeing that magnitude of 850 hPa temperature anomaly twice in the space of a week and three times in the space of 11 days is just staggering. The 500 mb height anomalies are also very impressive, especially later next week. All assuming the 12z ECM (with the 12z GFS similar but the 06z having been more so) that forms the basis for these charts is along the right lines - but the signal is proving very strong in the modelling now that the chance of some cross-polar ridging has largely been dropped (yet again this winter). Looking for the causes of this, well it's going to be an unusual combination and I have a theory that firstly, the propagating anomalies from the strong MJO passage across the tropical Pacific are being distorted by a negative AAM anomaly at 30*N (a Nina-like feature) that continues to resist change even in the face of an extremely strong WWB across the Central Pacific, and secondly, the lack of a strong lower stratospheric vortex (it's near the LTA which is a good deal lower than it is for Dec & Jan) is providing little in the way of zonal push on the blocking high, meaning that Atlantic troughs only serve to pump it up further via warm air advection aloft. If it wasn't for the continued Nina-like interference, the high-latitudes would be permitting the height rises needed to set up a powerful retrograding HLB from Scandinavia to Greenland, as is typical following MJO propagation through phases 7 & 8 with a Nino background (though given the weakness of the Nino we'd probably have seen the blocking head too far west for us pretty soon - like what happened to start March last year, but probably less dramatic!). One factor I'm unsure of the role of is the QBO; does a westerly QBO at 40 mb and above have a direct ability to keep the AO more positive? I don't expect so based on what I currently know (it impacts the stratosphere's interactions with the troposphere, not the troposphere's interactions with itself) - but I could be missing some crucial information.