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Ive been spat at and slapped...and kneeded-in the knackers..... Keep an eye on the annoms.. @500 geopt ht!.. Watch the divulge in evo..of height alignment with a STIFF-easterly flow.. And yes counterparted with notable isotherms!!!. Wear ya t'shirts...but keep a wooly hat; n jumper to wack over the top... @backloaded @winter strikes bk!! He whom laughs last...LAUGHS LOUDEST!! TA-LAR 4 NOW..

This high is beginning to remind me of that limpet that appeared earlier in the winter. The ECM spreads show its going nowhere fast . Frustrating to have the last few weeks of winter eaten up like this . I think it’s safe to assume barring a miracle that any cold weather now will have to appear in March . I’d say this winter has been one of the absolute worst in terms of expectations falling flat . The PV lobe of death over ne Canada hasn’t relented. Its remarkable that once again a winter passes by without a proper Arctic blast northerly . As for the EC 46 and other longer range Met Office products clearly something has gone badly wrong. We’ve seen a lot of spin but put bluntly they have been epic failures !

I imagine relegation to the focused thread. A fate that doesn't bear thinking about

Glosea Mike, ain't that the model that forecast a freezing cold blocked winter!! If that's flagging up a hot summer, I am now very worried!

STONKING GEFS ALERT!

May get some stonkers! This is getting me more excited now! Sod this mild spell!

Sod the big febuary heatwave, I'm still chasing cold, even if that means I'm alone in doing it! Bring on March, just bring it!

I will have revenge when Darlington ends up with a cool showery July and August with 15c.

Back home today. I've visited Skye many times and usually had mixed weather but never 6 days of all but unrelenting strong wind, heavy cloud and rain/drizzle. Really pants. As I was driving back east late morning, the sky brightened and then something strange appeared. What can it be, I wondered... so large and bright and warming???

and so you should be sorry allowing poor innocent children to wear Leicester City shorts!

11.8 C sun just making an appearance. drew this up last night on paint, this is the type of pattern I am hoping / looking to see develop plenty of ensembles now showing some form of trough / low developing over Scandinavia (possible section of PV) just struggling to get a grip on the higher pressure to the west but I am hopeful they will firm up on this. @Stormeh could be some thundery showers tomorrow could be some hail too with some cooler air in the mix

I can call it a disaster. no lying snow and only witnessed 5 mins of falling snow. No Ice days and no days when frost has remained all day. For my location that is very unusual. Also I can think of many locations in the same boat as me.

What a turnround wintering sheep now grazing spring grass. Cattle inside going from once a day bedding to every second day as air is so dry the folds are drying up.Cows had a bite of spring grass yesterday as they cleaned up the edges of the neep field,daffodils up 3 inches in the last few days.Maybe we will have some straw and hay left over this winter. Really feels like mid April the inner pessimist in me screams DROUGHT if this keeps up but the optomist says we"ll get two weeks of snowfall in April like 1968 to keep the drought at bay. Really feel for the ski resorts. Currently 12c and overcast.

Fantastic charts all around this morning if its warmth and sun you are after!!ecm is a scorcher for february and could be looking at temps of 20 degreees by the end of the week!!february records smashed out the window!

I can only imagine how happy these charts make you SS, this must be your equivalent to the beast from the east

Lot of straddlers hitting the - 10 mark! I'll take that Feb

Morning Nick. This is without doubt the most disappointing winter I have ever known. I have witnessed snowless winters before, but the reality between what was suggested via background signals compared to possible record breaking warmth is incredible. What also stands out for me this winter is the lack of promising charts in F.I. Any potential has only appeared on a few runs before disappearing. Sadly I believe we shall pay for this. My initial thoughts are for a disappointingly cool/unsettled spring/summer this year. Only positive is im looking forward to the winters of 2019/20, 2020/21.

ECM 00z was a big outlier as expected - well above the ensemble boundary.

I think anyone who thinks the record wouldn't fall on the 00z ECM is living in a fallacy...the same fallacy that made people think last Friday was going to be 10-11c because that what the models show. In truth we saw a local 17c. Regardless this spell is likely to be a historic mild/borderline warm spell for Feb and daily records at least are likely to fall. I'd guess probably 50-50 chance of the all time record going as well. With 4-5 days at similar if not slighlt warmer upper/thickness and a slightly longer day, we are going to see plenty of chances. The only limiting factor maybe how cold can the nights get. However the thickness/uppers on the ECM would not be out of place in June...

What a stonking summer chart this would be, no doubt we’ll have our huge greenie high in the middle of July

Yep Run Sun 17 Feb 00z You're looking at old data...

This cold hunt is going really well isn't it..+14 850's @ day 10 on the Ecm 00z..an upgrade on the 12z which was itself extraordinarily warm for late february!!

Outlook - a very familiar scenario. High amplification upstream with a very strong westerly flow exiting the eastern seaboard north of the Bermuda high, This backs sharply in the eastern atlantic as it hits the buffers of the very resilient European high pressure. Thus the environment in the western Atlantic is very conducive to cyclogenesis and, as the evolution unfolds, it is all about how far east systems associated with this can progress with the UK being the battlefield. Last evening's NOAA gives a good overview of this The NH 500mb profile and the surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK chart As can be seen still some cloud with mist/drizzle in the south east from the old front but this will slowly clear so much of the country will have a relatively clear, and mild, start to the day. But cloud and rain from the cold front associated with the low north west of Ireland is already effecting there and western Scotland..This will track east during the day effecting all areas, particularly Scotland, but becoming very light and patchy as it gets further east. The far south east.will remain dry on another mild day. This evening some cloud and patchy rain will continue to effect the south east and this may linger Whilst central England should stay dry but showery rain will effect western regions, and particularly Scotland, from further weak fronts associated with the aforementioned low which is edging closer to western Scotland. Another frost free morning on Monday During Monday the low is filling near the Hebrides and this, with the help of the occlusion. will bring blustery showers to the north west whilst down at the other end of the country the old cold front is getting a new lease of life with some heavier rain. Overnight Monday and through Tuesday changes are afoot as the low finally moves away into Scandinavia, but a new frontal system is quickly on the scene and rain, with increasing wind, will spread into the north west though Tuesday afternoon and evening, The south east will remain dry and less windy, And note the low that has appeared off the eastern seaboard By midday Wednesday this low has undergone explosive cyclogenesis whilst the low to west of Scotland has tracked north over Iceland leaving the top half of the country in warm sector conditions, thus cloudy with sporadic rain Still very mild in the south westerly flow By Thursday the pattern mentioned at the beginning is starting to evolve as further amplification occurs and this initiates some quite intense WAA into north west Europe

Being as I like a bit of furtune telling, Ive just read the tea bags, and this is what they came up with! All I can say is.... Start topping up your supplies now! Lord have mercy

I didn't think I'd be commenting on a potential heatwave in February, but we find ourselves in changed times, gone the front-loaded winter, which I championed, and gone the back-loaded winter, yes I backed that as well! D'oh! ECM T144: Reds! Thought they were for summer! Some say early warmth suggests a cold wet summer. I don't see anything like that at all, I'm doubling down on a repeat of last summer, early to make any kind of detailed forecast, but GloSea5 certainly going for it, Feb update for early summer Z500: I think it's going to be a hot one folks!

12z bringing the colder conditions quicker than the 6z

Anyone who discards winter clothing by mid February is a fool. Edited, to remove what might have been considered by some, to be somewhat provocative

It’s just so ironic. Those who were predicting record breaking temps in Feb may get their wish after all! Maybe we could exceed 20C for the first time in a winter month?

Gale force southerly wind now with sunny intervals at 14 c and RH of 26% .Fields drying up in front of our eyes with large areas now a powdery surface. Dust blowing off the farm tracks.

Yep, if i see any sort of hint about cold I’m on it straight away. Just wait till the summer when I hunt for thunderstorms!

all i say fw is looking they good if you want some cold is coming if the gfs is right end of feb /march could get interesting like last year!!! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=2

Scared? What’s going to happen to you?

Well after a 7 day sabbatical from model viewing I can see another 7 is required.

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is a cracker too..records could be broken during the next 10 days +....late spring-like warmth at the end of a lame winter!!

Winter grinds on in the U.S., whereas over in the U.K.,.....

Could there be a bit of dust with any rain, today? Saharan dust tracker

A nice clear night here thought I'd get a snap of the moon haven't looked at it for a while, just taken with an old bridge camera

GFS 18Z Is Also Going For Colder Conditions Late Feb Into March

Our next window is really day 11-12 Getting towards last chance saloon though-

Oh for heavens sake. Whatever way you look at it, it’s not winter. Record breaking temps or not, it’s likely to be close to 16 or 17C in favoured spots - exceptional considering we were supposed to be in an igloo had we believed the long range models.

Mild and dry sums up the last 2 weeks of winter

I would leave it another 14 days..or maybe 21 to be on the safe side..and even then I'm not sure!

Without fog cover, February temperature record busted. The uppers for the UK are the same as during parts of the heatwave last year!

Moving forward with the gfs and the opening comments from the above post more or less covers it. All about energy flows and subtle, or not, changes to the pressure distribution, and the high pressure is ahead on points by day ten. Thus generally dry with temps above average but perhaps cooling a tad. As ever the position of the surface high is paramount regarding this

Not a bad ending from the 18z para, much better than the 12s. Let the momentum continue

What next? Tracking a thundery low drifting toward the South coast before March starts? What a difference a year makes, thermals to t-shirts in12 months. Thames snow streamers to Kent thunderstorm 'clippers'

Almost a boooooooommmmmmmm!!!!!

Something truly extraordinary seems to be going on now and until further notice. Seeing that magnitude of 850 hPa temperature anomaly twice in the space of a week and three times in the space of 11 days is just staggering. The 500 mb height anomalies are also very impressive, especially later next week. All assuming the 12z ECM (with the 12z GFS similar but the 06z having been more so) that forms the basis for these charts is along the right lines - but the signal is proving very strong in the modelling now that the chance of some cross-polar ridging has largely been dropped (yet again this winter). Looking for the causes of this, well it's going to be an unusual combination and I have a theory that firstly, the propagating anomalies from the strong MJO passage across the tropical Pacific are being distorted by a negative AAM anomaly at 30*N (a Nina-like feature) that continues to resist change even in the face of an extremely strong WWB across the Central Pacific, and secondly, the lack of a strong lower stratospheric vortex (it's near the LTA which is a good deal lower than it is for Dec & Jan) is providing little in the way of zonal push on the blocking high, meaning that Atlantic troughs only serve to pump it up further via warm air advection aloft. If it wasn't for the continued Nina-like interference, the high-latitudes would be permitting the height rises needed to set up a powerful retrograding HLB from Scandinavia to Greenland, as is typical following MJO propagation through phases 7 & 8 with a Nino background (though given the weakness of the Nino we'd probably have seen the blocking head too far west for us pretty soon - like what happened to start March last year, but probably less dramatic!). One factor I'm unsure of the role of is the QBO; does a westerly QBO at 40 mb and above have a direct ability to keep the AO more positive? I don't expect so based on what I currently know (it impacts the stratosphere's interactions with the troposphere, not the troposphere's interactions with itself) - but I could be missing some crucial information.

That's because you need to look at the adjusted flux, not the observed flux. The flux varies with the Earth's distance from the Sun. The Earth is closest to the Sun in January so that's when the observed flux will be highest.