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I was cleaning the car about 30 mins ago & felt a tremor in the force - Must be something brewing in the models.. ( I love warm & sunny weather ) but a switch in the next 10 days could mean a last chance meeting with old man Winter...

Well that was exciting . Thank heavens high pressure is finally in charge after all that recent wet weather! The ECM is great if you want an early barbecue but for cold its utterly dire . The priest is very close to giving out the last rites , coldies implore the doctors not to switch the machine off. It ends up in court , the tabloids get involved . Save Coldie ! Mobs appear outside the hospital dressed in ear muffs and scarves with a few Santa hats also seen amongst the melee! Will the machine be switched off or will a last minute court injunction save the day .

Amazing ECM - record breaking high pressure in terms of intense thickness - Could we reach 70F !!!

Cold hunt my ar*e...stunning Ecm 12z..mow the lawn, have a pint in the beer garden and have a BBQ!!

I’ll never forget that event! Heaviest snow for 9 years here, was amazing! Without it I’d have put this winter down as crap, but snow falls like that don’t come around very often so I’m really pleased with winter 18-19 based solely on this event.

It's finally on its way

If we would have had the type of precipitation indicated by the white lines, as often as shown over the last 7 years, we would have been looking at an ice age.

That’s not too surprising....that chart is for March, zonal winds ease rapidly through spring, and tend to reverse to easterly in early April as the PV dissipates. Hence why the snow more likely at Easter than Xmas often rings true.

UKMO extended remains dry and settled for the UK and Ireland

The 500mb NH profile and the surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK surface chart A mild and cloudy start to the day, particularly in the south where there is a lot of Stratus and mist/fog, as the weak cold front stalls. Some showers in the Scotland now that the wave has tracked north east. During the day It will remain generally cloudy over England and Wales today, with some patchy drizzle moving north, as a wave that has formed on the front tracks north into Ireland returning the front as a weak warm front. Meanwhile the complex area of low pressure has deepened to 967mb Remaining generally cloudy this evening and overnight with still some patchy rain from the front over Scotland, and maybe bits and bobs of drizzle down western coasts, Ant clear spells wil be in the south east with some mist and fog. Mild with no frost The cloud tends to break somewhat on Sunday and once the low Stratus and mist has cleared the south east, generally not a bad day and still mild. But a cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure area will move east and weaken during the day. Thus the belt of rain effecting N. Ireland and western Scotland at 0600 will tend to become very patchy as it moves east. Over Sunday night through Monday the front clears into the North Sea and the trough moves move of Scotland as the subtropical high builds again to the west. Thus a generally fine day in England and Wales but frequent showers in Scotland and down western coasts.Still quite mild but temps down a notch The ridge moves over the UK on Tuesday to give a generally fine day for most with temps still a tad above average but a new complex frontal system has arrived to the west of Ireland by midday Tuesday and the fronts will track north east bringing rain and quite strong winds to northern and western areas through Tuesday evening and Wednesday. Further to the south and east remaining dry and getting quite warm again. Meanwhile out to the west another low has undergone explosive cyclogenesis and is down to 945mb.

A damn windy day on Skye, too windy for much more than survival so little constructive achieved on my little hill. This is Marsco on the left and the north end of the Cuillins. It's been really poor hazy light in this moist southerly all week. More of the same tomorrow. Depressing.

I wish we did have the climate of siberia.

Could we get the 1st 20c day during a UK winter next weekend

Ive just been posted to West wickham on a temporary move so I will be doing the Jail Lane run every day up past keston ponds !

The weather forecast debacle just highlights the issues with longer range outputs . The UKMO forecasts have been woeful and they’re probably relieved that most of the public don’t bother reading them however businesses sensitive to the weather do pay quite a lot for detailed longer range output . So this looks like quite an embarrassing few months for the UKMO and other outlets.

11c here with mainly blue skies, just a bit of high cloud. Not much of a breeze either do feels pleasant in the sun. Our bees are taking advantage of the warmer weather this week too, they were out flying when I checked on Wed and are out again today. After being cooped up for weeks in a wooden box (a bit like @Hairy Celtby the sounds of it) they'll be enjoying getting out again (assuming bees have such a concept). Off in a bit to check a house where the owner has noticed bees going in and out of the wall/roof. We'll see if we can identify them, and if we can do anything about them for her. The likely answer to the latter is no. If they are honey bees and the've been in there all winter they are probably quite cosy and settled so trying to entice them out into a hive (even with free food laid on) is unlikely to be successful. If they are mason bees or something they are pretty much harmless and will die in a few weeks anyway.

The hunt for cold as died, just as the models show a little positive for cold, come on peeps, this is a boooooooommmmmmmm considering what we have now

I hope my fellow Bromleyites, in alphabetical order: abbie123, Biggin (Bromley/Croydon border?),EWS(Chelsfield,Orpington), Hotspur61 (Locksbottom), Scrat (Biggin Hill) and Snowbob (Biggin Hill/New Addington, Bromley/Croydon border), can help me out here. If I've left out any Bromley Members, I apologise, my memory's not quite what it was, now!! Btw, I hope you all enjoyed the photo of Hayes Common, in the snow, I'm sure you all know the road well. Just a bit of local history first. Bromley's name is derived from the Broom shrub. This grows in abundance on the Common land, to the South of Bromley Town, Centre. When I was younger, I used to enjoy walking through the Commons, around Keston and Hayes. No doubt, if the weather remains Springlike, we'll soon see it's bright yellow flowers, across the Borough's Common Land. Also, the local Housing Association, Broomleigh, takes its name from this shrub. Now that poser, for my fellow Bromleyites. Myself and my Wife, Colette, were born, raised, educated and have spent most of our lives, in the Bromley area. Although, we now live in the Lewisham Borough but only a short distance from the Bromley border. The photo below shows the 119 bus route on its way from Bromley to Croydon. When I was working near East Croydon, I used to take this bus frequently from Bromley North, to my workplace. Colette and myself are convinced this photo was taken opposite St.Mark's Church, in Westmoreland Road. It then turns into Hayes Road, then into Hayes Lane, on its way to Croydon. The photo depicts the severe flooding that affected the area, in September, 1968. I was 12, at the time: The culprit was a deepening depression, on the S.W. tip of the U.K. and it broke the Summer heat, in spectacular fashion. Violent thunderstorms and heavy rain developed on Saturday 14th September. This heavy, thundery rain, continued for some time. So much so that the local Rivers, Ravensbourne and its tributary, the River Quaggy, broke their banks and caused widespread flooding, throughout the Borough of Bromley. I lived near Sundridge Park Golf Course , at the time and the River Quaggy, runs through there. It then runs on into Chinbrook Park, near Grove Park. The flooding in the park, was unbelievable!! The floodwaters were as high as the top of lampposts, in the park. A crazy weather event!! So, if any of you Bromleyites (that I mentioned, above) can help me out and confirm that, the photo was taken opposite St.Mark's Church, in Westmoreland Road. Colette and myself, would really appreciate it. Thank you. Strangely, Ian Currie has included this photo in his Surrey County Weather Book. Now Colette and myself, are Bromley through and through. No offence to Surrey Members but we consider ourselves, Kentish born and products of the Garden of England County.But I've just found out that Kent has lost that title, to Yorkshire!! We don't even refer to ourselves as, Sarrf-East Londoners!! Regards, Tom.

Ec46??? We havent managed to get 5 days ahead right all winter! Delusion!!

Afternoon all I added the below to the general Winter 2018-19 Thread yesterday but I think it belongs here: Part of my working life revolves around post-event analysis and I always approach these projects with two questions in mind: 1) What Happened and Why Did It Happen? - this is 95% of the time and it's quite boring because you have all the information and it's not terribly difficult to ascertain a pattern or sequence of events. 2) What Should Have Happened and Why Did It Not? - this is the really interesting 5% and clients trying to work out what went wrong rarely start from here. It's amazing how often people expect something to happen and are completely flummoxed when it doesn't. A confirmatory mindset takes over and they repeat the same event, get the same result and start wondering what has gone wrong. Anyone seeking to analyse Winter 2018-19 for the UK should start with the second question. Nick F's blog this morning is a superb analysis of the first part of the first question though as with all of us enthusiastic amateurs the "why" requires more information than to which we have access. It's disconcerting to see organisations such as ECM and UKMO with access to far larger information resources and infinitely more sophisticated and detailed computer modelling still get it wrong but at the same time mildly encouraging for those who like to think there are mysteries still to be solved. I'm left with four discordant and possibly unrelated observations as I try to fathom the questions above: 1) Where has all the Fog Gone? - whether caused by AGW or not, the thought I had this morning was another winter has gone by with barely any morning fog. If I were in the physics game, I'd be wondering whether a warmer world creates more energy in the atmosphere making for a more mobile atmospheric environment. More energy in the atmosphere might mean a stronger PV with all that flows (so to speak) from that. I'd love to know what the PV looked like in the mediaeval warm period or during the late 17th Century. Did it exist? Is it where it is now? Did it behave as it does now? It is such a crucial part of the pattern especially as it draws intensely cold air down into North America and encourages cyclogenesis and fires up the Atlantic jet. 2) When is an SSW not an SSW? - it's now clear the SSW of January 2019 was a very different creature from the SSW of February 2018. The latter was akin to the flushing of a toilet with hot water - this swept down the atmosphere shredding the PV and allowing the cold air to flow down (and more importantly the warmer air to flow up), Within less than 3 weeks from the actual vortex split, we were looking at a significant cold outbreak. We were told then (and indeed at the New Year) not all SSWs work favourably for NW Europe and this one obviously hasn't. I'm less convinced what we saw wasn't an actual SSW but a very strong Wave 1 displacement. These, as we know, usually come from the Eurasian side and shunt the PV lobe back to the Canadian side. They rarely do us any favours apart from as a cumulative effect weakening and destabilising the PV. We rarely get a warming from the Canadian side (I believe the 62-63 cold spell originated with a Canadian Warming) and it's worth asking why these don't happen. Even now there's no sign of another Wave 1 and while the PV is weakening as we head to month end the comparison with 2018 is incredible. Oddly enough, the best recent comparison is with 2013 - yes, I know. 3) Don't Drink The Water - one or two individuals who were less bullish about the winter than many cited the Atlantic SSTs as a factor behind their caution and after this winter's forecasting debacle it's worth considering this. Are we seeing as was postulated in a certain movie glacial meltwater entering the ocean and lowering the temperature? I'm not convinced but at a time of generally warming oceans parts of the Atlantic remain cold: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomnight.2.11.2019.gif Curiously, we are now seeing some quite warm water off the eastern seaboard of CONUS so I wonder if that explains why the Atlantic LP are slowing and deepening? It's one to keep an eye on and an indicator worth revisiting for further analysis. 4) It's the Sun, Stupid - a final thought occurred when doing some reading and I picked up a comment that the winter immediately prior to a solar minimum is often mild in north west Europe. No explanation as to why this should be and I'm not convinced the analysis tells a good story as the Modern Maximum was a huge event but we still got some very cold winters (I'm still wondering if that was related to sulphur dioxide emissions). Clearly, the Maunder and Dalton Minimums were significant periods for colder winters but the 11-year cycle is relevant. Looking at winter 2008-09 there were two significant cold spells but overall it was fairly mild. IF this is valid, it may be the proponents of a cold winter were simply a year too early with both 2019-20 and 2020-21 looking much better. That said, will this minimum be as strong as the 2009-10 Minimum? It will need to be to deliver the cold and snow many on here want. As the song says, there are "more questions than answers" and I don't have a lot of the latter. I appreciate the angst of the young bears but there's no need to rail against forecasters, climatologists or each other. If you want to understand the weather better, start learning about it. NW has plenty of information as a starting point.

Not a bad ending from the 18z para, much better than the 12s. Let the momentum continue

Almost a boooooooommmmmmmm!!!!!

The 18s going for a much colder end of month, early March, let's just see shall we

Brace yaselfs, its coming!!!!! The Spanish plume that is!

The country grinds to a halt with a cm of snow, not quite sure a siberian climate would suit this infrastructure!

It's quite simple really, if you don't agree with or don't like the look of my post ...don't read it

This winter's cold hunt or hunt for cold..or whatever has been largely fruitless and the Ecm delivers the final insult which is fitting really..we had so called amazing background signals which have ultimately delivered diddly squat for many..being a member of sacra i'm gutted with how this winter has unravelled but even this coldie will enjoy the unseasonably warm fine weather which looks like occurring again from later next week. PS..I haven't given up completely on cold and snow at some point during the first half of spring

It was brilliant today and it's happened countless times in February before. The warmest CET temperature happened a staggering 240 years ago and with the recent warming that's has taken place I find that quite a Suprise. Also in 1998 February was amazingly warm around mid month.

I enjoyed reading all the history about Bromley. As you know I enjoy reading your posts @TomSE12 can I be a honouree member of Bromley? My husband is from there and we spend of time there visiting family. Today I took the kids to Hastings, it was very cloudy most of the time but still quite warm my son decided to wear shorts even after I warned him he might get cold and should change them, it was warm enough for shorts so he won that argument. At around midday the sun came out and it was really nice. We had a game of crazy golf which is right in the sea front and it was still pleasant. When we left the temperature was around 13. My husband is threatening a BBQ for tomorrow. That man would BBQ in snow if I would let him.

Ecm brings literally record warmth to the south, and a freeze to Greece, my god you just couldn't make it up.

Not again! as we've said before, think of members north of the M4, some of us had one of worst winters in history, 3 temporary dustings here, some not even that

The chances of a deep freeze are low now. Last winters beast was exceptional, but looking at current European temperatures it's nothing exceptional, in fact some parts are experiencing unusual warmth as well, There is still time to squeeze in cold enough weather even if it's not long lasting lying snow even falling snow will save some crumbs. Anyway our search for winter wonderland will always continue. If not this winter we will be back next winter

The 06z would have the CET on about 5.8C to the 20th, then 6.8C to the 25th, with the period of the 21st to the 25th averaging about 10.5C. Potential for a few daily records to go in the next 10 days, with tomorrow likely to be the first close call. The current record high mean for the 17th is 10.7C from 1878, while the GFS forecasts the mean for the 17th to be a little over 10C

Anyone know what the white lines through precipitation means? It’s been so long I’ve forgotten

Bunch of comments have been removed. If folks need to resort to conspiracy theories about climate change to make their point, there are plenty of forums and blogs that simply love that nonsense. This ain't one of them though. Please report blatant anti-science comments rather than reply to them. Cheers!

Morning all, Up early again to have breakfast with my Wife of 9 years and a day, soon. Poor Colette is facing a 12 hour shift today, bless her!! Well overnight Model runs seem to have drifted further away from a late Winter, wintry spell. Although, Models still show that push of heights to the N.E., around about 22nd Feb nut they soon retreat back S.W, again. I'm still holding out for a wintry spell in March, courtesy of Ian Currie's Greenland height rises and a resultant snowy, Northerly. Sorry Lauren and all, not ready for Spring just yet!! And on that note, if the snow wont come to us, I'll have to bring snow to the masses!! Below, are another couple of photos from Ian Currie's, Kent and Surrey Weather books. Firstly a photo of late snowfall, in my Home Borough of Bromley, N.W.Kent. This snowfall occurred on 26th April, 1950. This photo was taken at Hayes Common, it could well be Croydon Road?? The heavy. wet clinging snow, brought down hundreds of miles of telephone wires, across Kent. An area of Low pressure, tracked S.E down the North Sea, from Iceland. Cold air spread south on the 25th and as a wave ran along the English Channel, rain accompanied by strong winds, turned to heavy, wet snow. This caused much traffic disruption and brought down many telephone and electricity lines. Reports of 15 cms of snow were recorded from Salisbury, over to Faversham. Below is a photo of the result of snowfall, from the same event. It was taken on the road between Hindhead and Farnham. It shows the Haslemere to Aldershot bus, having skidded off the road: These photos were reproduced from the Kent and Surrey County Weather Books respectively, with the very kind permission of Co-Author, Ian Currie. Regards, Tom.

Continuing with the gfs. The intense low drifts north to be south east of Greenland by T144 and by this time the Atlantic is dominated by the upper trough with a mryiad of systems running around on the surface as the high pressure over Europe refuses to budge. This remains the case over the next 48 hours with a fronts managing to bring some rain and strong winds to the north as another intense low arrives in mid Atlantic And all of this results in Exceptional WAA into Europe

Can't help but think we'll pay for it sometime in March or April!

They are almost as exceptional or unusual as the pattern and uppers that we had last March, so although not what most of us want it’s interesting to see such remarkable warmth at this time of the year. Obviously most of us are here for the cold hunt but in absence of that at the moment it will be interesting to see just how warm it will get, oh and the bonus of a nice low heating bill

What I find rather interesting is when I joined this forum alot of focus was placed on the Atlantic SSTs which is understandable. However in recent years less focus seems to be placed on this with more and more teleconnections being used in forecasts. I actually think that since forecasts have become more technical on this forum the accuracy has decreased So I shall ask a few more questions. 1. Should we take a more basic approach at forecasting next winter by for example keeping a closer eye on the Atlantic SSTs? 2. As many on here (including myself) are biased to cold. Do you think that maybe we are looking at signals that point to cold too often? Should we also look at signals that might point to the contrary. Allowing your bias to skew your forecast is one of my biggest faults and I openly admit that! Good thread this by the way.

There has been plenty of hazy sunshine hereabouts, but cold this morning. (0C) Montrose Basin from the train station just after dawn. Aberdeen, later in the morning, although sunny, was still chilly with an unpleasant gusty wind. Much the same on returning home. Haven’t felt the (spring) warmth yet, up here yet.

Agreed Si. Loving the dry, bright skies and relative warmth now, but don't mistake this for spring. The way the PV is behaving could take us for fools.

Is anyone still bothering with ec46 after it's dismal performance during the winter, if you are, why exactly?

Well it’s perfect golf weather and beautiful it is, and I have a feeling this is going to go on and on....we are in a rut yet again and is an extreme in itself. But we are far from unprecedented warmth. BFTP

When the beast hit last year at the end of Feb, I was renovating a house, no heating and a big hole in the building (extension going up) it was so cold my tea actually froze in my cup while working inside!! Now as much as I love the snow and frost that was pretty extreme to be working in, and not much fun to be honest. Move forward a year and again I’m renovating a house with no heating, though we have doors and windows this time lol. So the current charts are actually really quite welcome!! It is a shame many haven’t seen snow this winter (though many have) and the winter as a whole has been disappointing with the absence of a prolonged freeze up, but you have got to love the extremes of the UK weather, from the GREAT BEAST to the GREAT BASK in a year! Get those BBQs out

One has to wonder that if those temperatures come off as the models predict next week, we could be reading comments in July/August stating ‘It was warmer than this in February!’.

Beautiful day, temps hit 14c on 15th February after a very frosty start. More of this please weather gods if it isn’t going to snow. What a relief we are replacing cold and snow with sun & warmth instead of Atlantic wet crap in mid Feb.

We got ten days to get to Aldi and stock up... again. I'm still trying to get through the last lot I bought in January. Whenever I see the letters SSW I'm straight into panic mode and stripping the shelves.

I admire anyone who cares for the elderly in care homes. As you say getting paid pittance to be the best possible carer you can be. My grandad was moved into a care home yesterday as he’s 92 and been poorly lately and needed more round the clock care. I had a lovely dream about him last night in his new cosy room and he said he was happy. I woke up this morning to the sad news he passed away during his sleep. He was such a gentleman - the world’s lost another from the golden generation. I’ll be toasting a drink in honour of him tonight.

Up very early with my Wife, before she set off for her early morning shift, at a Residential Care Home, in Chislehurst. It's a very special day for myself and Colette, it's our 9th Wedding Anniversary. I first met my Wife when out shopping with my sister, Angela. Angela and Colette were friends and ex-classmates when they were at School together in Bromley. Angela had told me about this very attractive friend she had, who she thought resembled, actress Julia Roberts. I first "clapped" eyes on Colette, when she was standing next to the Baguettes, in Waitrose. She had just been on holiday and was very taken with her very tanned, long and slender, Baguettes. My sister invited Colette to come and have a "cuppa", back at our parents house after shopping. We seemed to hit it off, straight away. I walked her home afterwards and was struck by her very attractive eyes and hair, indeed very Julia Roberts like!! Colette wrote to me a week later, asking if I'd like to meet her for a coffee. My sister and I invited her to our parents house and we cooked her a lovely Italian meal of Pasta and Meatballs. We saw each other for a few times afterwards but I was married and my Wife at the time, was very ill with Huntington's Disease. Myself and Colette, eventually started seeing each other again but it was a very on/off relationship. Sadly, my first Wife died of complications, due to HD in 2008. Colette and myself finally got married in 2010, we even had a sprinkling of snow, outside the Registry Office in Sidcup, N.W.Kent. A couple of "snaps", from that day. Us, with Colette's son, a gentle giant of a guy!! I was with Colette on the evening she finally got a diagnosis for her son's problems. She'd fought long and hard to get Doctor's and Teachers to understand that her son, had major problems. She was on her own at the time and felt very alone, coping with all these difficulties. She came out of that final assessment looking relieved but saddened, at the same time. Her son had been diagnosed with Asperger's Syndrome. She felt relieved in a way, as it proved she wasn't "going mad", as some Doctors had implied. Our relationship has been very difficult at times. I think our families serious health issues, came between us!! But I have nothing but praise for my Wife, in the way which she has nursed me back to health, after my Haemorrhagic Stroke of September 2015. It was a very traumatic time for Colette. She was present at King's College Hospital when I "died" twice and was "shoved" out of my room, while Doctors/Nurses, resuscitated me. She has "stepped up to the plate" many times during my recovery. She had to fill in umpteen forms, fighting to obtain Disability Benefit, for me. She's been like a "dog with a bone", trying to get me extra Physiotherapy appointments with Hospital Departments!! I really hope she doesn't get "bullied" into working this afternoon, as I would like us to have some time together, on our "special day". I wanted us to have a quiet takeaway together tonight but Colette is insisting on cooking us a meal. That's my stubborn Wife, for you. Regards, Tom.