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This has been the strangest winter I have ever known since becoming a member back in 2004. What stands out for me is actually the lack of promising charts in the model output. Rarely have we seen a GH being modelled and is why the GEFS Iceland mean has never got above 1020mb. We have only had one failed E,ly when normally this occurs several times. All of this combined with the promising long range forecasts has made this winter somewhat odd. Just add this winter is nothing to do with a lack of cold air over the Arctic. The simple reason is a lack of blocking in the required locations. Have we already forgotten about the relatively recent cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010, Last years BFTE! Back to the current crap model output and all I can say is it must get better because it cannot get any worse!

I love this forum, I very rarely post in here because even though I've been a member of this site for years, I'm still not that confident about reading the charts. There are some posters in here that I respect immensely, and I know the ones I trust to give a realistic view. It has to be said though, lately there's been more drama queens in here than RuPaul's drag race! It's been quite amusing at times. On a serious note though, it can be very very confusing in here at times with some posters claiming that it's all looking good for cold, and then the next post is from someone claiming there's no cold showing in the charts! It can be really difficult to get to grips with what's going on. I'm certainly not having a go at anyone in particular, just pointing out that it can be quite bewildering in here at times and it's difficult to gauge who is being balanced about it all. Year after year it never ceases to amaze me how difficult it is to actually get some decent cold/snowy weather here in the UK. But I guess that's the curse of being an island on the edge of an ocean. Anyway, I'll shut up now. At least I have seen some snow here in Wales this winter, albeit short-lived.

What?.. Sticking 2 my guns as i have been..in regards to the most noted part of winter likely late feb/early march.. Ive also supplied ample data/reasons/exactions/opinions to the steak..on numerous occasions!.. And will contintue all those notions. Its a shame some are not seeing what myself..is seeing because the mood would likely be more free-flowing...rather than 'wrist slashing'.. Im buisey today in my other life!!!! But i will stick up..as per an analysis/aligned with data an opinion hopefully sometime later...

And yet only 6 years ago we had The coldest March for 50 years so that's two once in a lifetime march's in one lifetime already.

Take it from a old fart, March/April can, have and will continue to deliver what winter sometimes doesn't: 1965, 1970, 1975, 1989, 1990, 2006, 2013...2018 all had Springtime snowfall...so I suspect that the preceding winter has little or no effect upon what Spring holds??? Throw in the towel? Not likely!

And all my positivity from yesterday is blown away this morning. No dressing it up it’s a bore fest . This winter just will not deliver . Have a good weekend . See you all around November.

Bloody hell Don you must have a hell of a lot of towels, the amount you have through in

Only just seen the 06Z and im surprised at some of the comments, or lack of. Yes I know its +384 but at least the GH is back making an appearance.

@knocker daily forecasts/updates in the focussed model thread are really useful for learning - charts and commentary, great stuff.

@knocker A huge thank you for your updates and forecasts - immensely helpful to those, like me, who are learning. It's so good to see the charts with a full commentary, so thank you so much.

I think the issue is not that you have been sticking to yours guns, but keep telling people to expect proper winter weather in 10 to 14 days. Then keep changing the dates, just like today. I really don't mind people sticking to their guns, it is the hunt for cold thread after all. However, nobody here has forecast this winter in any confidence and so it is pointless telling people to expect wintry weather any time soon. No more ramping please.

Well I suggest this thread is retired. The climate has changed to such an extent that I would go so far as to say the models , particularly long range are now not really of much use . I was looking at historical northern hemisphere winter charts the other day and I am of the opinion that the cold air has diminished over arctic areas . Consequently (my gut feeling) there is simply less colder air to make it to our latitude . If for example temperatures in the Arctic are say 3c warmer than it doesn’t take much science to realise that whatever airmass arrives will be up to that warmer. Result clearly obvious in recent summers particularly. The signals were pointing to a cold winter and northern blocking yet there has been none. At best that means the models are seriously flawed at worst the planet is in serious trouble and they are not picking up on it . With regards to this so called winter . It’s been the worst by a country mile with the model performance . All rather embarrassing when I’ve told friends and family the science behind what was going to happen. I seriously think this winter has had it now . The next two weeks look like nothing.I suggest people give up on it . I for one a massive snow lover have realised this and I am now looking forward to spring . How about a hunt for spring thread ? Having posted this the 6z will probably bring the beast in at 144hrs !

If we can’t get cold (which is there is zero sign of), then let’s look forward to spring. And use this winter as a massive learning curve.

Sitting in departures at Manchester airport on the way to Spain where spring has arrived early, 21c today on the Costa Blanca today. For those you just getting up don't bother looking at the models, MetO is terrible at 144 (3000 mile wide Bartlett) and GFS is pants at 240 (boring beyond belief). If there is any signal for cold it must be way out in La la land (beyond the orbit of Pluto) so I couldn't be bothered to look. Just 19 days to go until this awful winter is finally put out of its long misery, never has a winter promised so much and delivered so little. Andy

Subject to no further shut-downs across the pond the delayed GFS upgrade will take place on March 20th

I'm. Choking back the tears as I peruse the gfs output now

Morning peeps Hope you all are well, alas what a winter it's been, something that was meant to have so much potential from the influence of outside factors but sadly it's a winter that did not win the heart of coldies. We are on the 9th of Feb today and the silent ticking of the clock carries on, sadly with regret and a sinking feeling to be honest time is really not on our side for the coldies. To be very blunt and honest saying this hurts but my hunch at this moment in time is that a prolonged severe cold spell now looks like a low percentage to me. I know some of you in here may not agree to the downbeat tone but I am just being realistic as I can by judging the current output. Having said this I may be totally wrong and some major change could happen, but it would need to be something dramatic and it needs to happen soon. We all have been on this rollercoaster ride together this winter and there has been moments when we saw glimmers of hope and then there had been moments of disparity. That is model watching and that is the UK winter we will win some and we will loose some. Just like to thank everyone who posts on here because that is what keeps this place going and especially those more knowledgable ones who have shared their thoughts. We still have a good part of February to go who knows if in a weeks time we will be jumping with joy, but as I said my heart tells me different and that's my thinking. Even if we don't scramble anything I know many of us will be back here next year all on this same train trying to find that stop to winter. One day we will get lucky and I am sure it will be worthwhile, till then our waiting will go on. hope you all have a great day and thanks once again to everyone for sharing your thoughts. the search for our winter wonderland will always continue kind regards

Bearing in mind that last March was the snowiest of any month (27cms) at my location since the amazing December of 2010 I shall not be throwing in the towel anytime soon in the hunt for cold and snow. Didn't,t last winter teach anyone anything?

Really quick from me this morning.. Which ties in nicely with the mood in here this morn.. -premature MISScalculation.. More later. X

Pump up the jam, pump it up, pump it up a little more, get the party going on the dance floor!

Seems to me Nick that the models want to go the cold route and are confused as to whether to go the Scandi high or the Greenland high route, and we are getting a combination of the 2 but all the worst features from both and not the best!

The amount of negativity in here this morning is bordering on the unhealthy. I think all those who keep threatening to throw the towel in should do just that asap so the rest of us can move on, whether there is any cold left this winter or not.

I captured this yesterday at Folkestone. Proper weather! More Photography

Too early to be throwing in the towel. The 500Mb anamolies for this winter to date will surprise folk. Heights have been higher than normal over Greenland and other polar regions. We just haven’t got rid of those bl**dy Azores / Euro heights.

yes i think "cold hunt" is actually rhyming slang for what most of them in there are which is a "daft "

I think the models should be restricted to 5 days only, with anything beyond pure guesswork and wonder. Would help keep the stress levels in check

For me it's not so much whether heavy snow can fall and settle in late Feb or early March (since it clearly can) but whether deep, lasting cold with minimal daytime thawing can emerge. The magic of the classic cold spells was not just in how much snow fell, but the short days with additional accumulations over a period of several days with the potential for more to come. We're now wandering into territory akin to being in the middle of Aug, sat under a trough, it's 18 degrees out, and waiting for a 30+ heatwave to develop in early September. It might, but it's becoming less than a puncher's chance with each passing set of outputs. I must say either way I'm excited about Spring, and the longer days are a nice tonic after a poor winter.

I would be very interested in the names of the Climatologists who have gone into hiding and could you be more specific vis those and Arctic sea ice. Thanks

Outlook - becoming more settled with some crisp mornings next week The NH 500mb profile for midnight and the European surface chart and WV image for 0300 Still very windy, particularly in the north, but the wind will abate during the day although still strong over the north of Scotland, And currently still a batch of rain across the north associated with Erik and the occlusion which will move away to the north east quite quickly this morning leaving sunny intervals over most of the country with squally showers in western regions, Temps a tad above average but not feeling so in the wind But whilst Erik fills and slips away towards Norway a couple of cheeky waves have formed to the south west of Cornwall and they track north east to bring cloud and rain to Cornwall by 1800 today, perhaps snow on the high ground, which will then spread across the southern half of the country through tonight and tomorrow. Precisely how far north this will get is still up for grabs. At the other end of the country another wave has formed on an occlusion and this is tracking south with patchy rain, again snow on the high ground in Scotland, and introducing much colder air in it's wake. The occlusion will track south over over Sunday night through Monday with some patchy rain which fizzles out as the front weakens courtesy of subtropical high ridging from the south west so a much calmer and drier day further south but a colder day generally after a frosty start We are now entering familiar territory with the strongly amplifying subtropical high battling the energy exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic and on Tuesday a couple of fronts manage to ingress the north west with some patchy rain but generally a dry and quite mild day But the high is very resilient and becoming more influential so by Wednesday any wet and windy weather is confined to the far north whilst elsewhere will be dry with temps generally above average.

Anyone still got some energy left for one more cold chase? I can understand all the doubts expressed over all this Winter's let downs but i always treat each new situation the same and look at what the outputs say,if they prove wrong then so be it. So a look at tonight's EPS clusters days 12-15 which a small majority cluster favouring a UK High moving nw towards Greenland.Still a decent cluster though for the Euro(milder)pattern. Day 12 day 15 A strong enough signal for a pattern change towards cold in a couple of weeks which are also showing in today's gfs runs so it has some support.We would be looking for low pressure to eventually undercut the high in order to bring in the cold though,something like cluster 3 above. This will not come about in the next week so another few days of model runs before we can start to gain confidence if this will happen. Still let's get this high established first and see where it goes bearing in mind we will likely to see a some milder days first before it(hopefully)moves nw.

At the end of the day the computer models are just that. Computers they predict what the weather will be like (or try too) so no one model is king or boss or whatever they are all the same and all try and do the same job but like humans will get it wrong especially when looking to far in advance. Yes this winter (so far) has been pretty dump tbh but it’s just luck really as to where pattens set up, yes there obviously is more to it than that but I genuinely believe that we have just been very unlucky this winter. nobody can rule out a real cold blast before the middle of March despite the models not looking great atm the will change dramatically within the next week for better or worse. Not really sure why iv posted this waffle but just some comments tonight have interrupted my match of the day for me to post this. anyway I’ll be back on here tomorrow to see if there’s any changes. Why? Because I’m sad and an addict lol

Enough of the bickering or posts will be removed!

Has this thread been infiltrated with people who just want to comment/discuss instead of posting actual model output? Pages of obituary's and no model output The GEFS are very average and ECM look no better at the moment

Great, let's all leave the UK cause we could have a sequence of mild winters, only problem now is with brexit, no bugger will have us

A fairly settled week ahead according to UKMO It will be mild by day with Edinburgh as an example shown to have highs of between 10c and 11c from Tuesday to Saturday inclusive Dare I say it but it will be feeling spring like for a few areas

The gfsp simply reminds us that the option remains on the menu - but it will take a lot more than an appearance at day 15/16 for us to take it at all seriously. Gefs have flattered over the last couple days, throwing up the odd fi amplification to our nw which looks to be of a sustained nature ...yet they havent been ale to make it stick or gain any momentum hence the downbeat nature of the thread today. im not one for March winters down here. A one day snowfall doesn’t float my boat ..... it’s more of an aggravation than anything else! last years bfte was with sub 510 dam thicknesses ......deliver that I’m on board. But it’s so unlikely. Give the nwp a week and then roll on spring !

Before the downwelling ends it'll end up in australia, and they will damn well end up stealing our cold

Just went and checked the Met Office stations and those uploading to Weather Underground as well the highest gusts from Friday and Saturday morning from around Scotland, Gilmilnscroft Catrine 82mph Loch Carrie 75mph Dundrennan 74mph Fleet Bay Solway Firth 73mph Sannox Isle of Arran 69mph Forth Bridge 66mph Lower Milovaig Isle of Skye 65mph Isle of Barra 64mph Letham Shank Farm Berwick-upon-Tweed 64mph Giffnock Glasgow 64mph West Freugh 63mph Prestwick Airport 62mph Charterhall 60mph Kingsbarns Fife 60mph Tiree Airport 59mph Loch Glacarnoch 59mph Maybole 58mph Aboyne 57mph Campbeltown 57mph Glasgow Airport 56mph Leuchars 55mph Eskdalemuir 55mph Bunessan Isle of Mull 55mph

They have done it again, lulled us into chase and took it away one day later, not surprising though, the backtrack on the ensembles over the last 2 runs, definately game over now.

Stay away from the cold hunt thread.... wow its bad in there this morning. sea ice melting no its not oh yes it is. global warming this global warming that, missing scientists, nasa this and that.

That's enough please. There are far too many off-topic posts on here this morning. There are other threads for met office, climate change, past winter weather, moans, etc., etc.. I asked nicely a few pages back so I'm afraid posts will now start disappearing.

Well, the model ensemble guidance has been chopping and changing as much as the operationals over the last week, just when it starts to look promising in the hunt for cold, a new signal develops in the starting data which takes model guidance on a route away from the promising signs - been the story of the winter really, despite background drivers suggesting hope. Our last chance hope for the remainder of meteorological winter is the MJO wave passing through phases 7-1 at decent amplitude - which normally forces changes in the upper patterns to promote blocking at higher latitudes - with a lag of 10-14 days - we may not see this potential until the closing days of February. In the meantime, a last hurrah of wintriness on Sunday, as low drops down from the north with colder air cutting in behind perhaps giving a wintry mix, as suggested by ECMWF Sunday night for England and Wales Then I'm afraid it's back to late December / early January pattern of high pressure dominating - fairly mild sunny days and chilly nights under clear skies until we see the pattern shaken up by something, probably the MJO.

And yet parts of the USA have seen the most brutal cold in a generation....

The door is slightly ajar at day 6/7 (and icon goes on an isolated journey which could be a toss of a coin job) but the ridge cannot gain any traction at a decent latitude across the modelling to allow us to advert any proper cold west below it. i have no confidence in the MJO because thus far it’s not done a good job this winter on its analogues and whilst there are potentially reasons why this uocoming period could see that change (s Pacific telecons now looking like they will be reflecting nino state), the extended modelling just isn’t seeing the analogue for phase 8 in the distance. i suspect the fairly unique nature of this winter re the massive quite early SSW and downwelling w QBO and a nino with a fairly Nina atmospheric repsonse has dictated that the post ten day modelling is pretty unreliable for much detail. The late jan euro trough apart, it’s not been too good. unless we see a notable flip in the extended ens across the nwp within a week, then we’re struggling to see any decent surface wintry conditions across nw Europe this side of March and we know what that means ........... let’s see what tomorrows nwp brings .........

That will never happen, there will be just as many tantrums and tears next year - and long may it continue

I was just going to say. @Essex snowman hasn't got any of his mates tonight, he is on his own, as @Westcountry Storm @mountain shadow are not here, but fear not, @Frost HoIIow has just had some laughing gas now as well!!!

Just thought i would let all Cold Hunters know that Legritter is about and ready for a good HUNT ,Something is brewing nothing is set in stone .If i may just add todays exeter update , they are seeing high pressure and hinting at something wintry , i know many will say that they have been saying this all winter so far but we have the possibility of high pressure setting up in a good position .So come on Gang , C H Q S ,Cold Hunters Quick Step , sausage sandwiches ,STellas ,cheers

Highest gust here in Barra so far is still 64mph from just before 12pm. Its been cloudy with rain up to 20mm and windy all day. I went out later in the afternoon and got some photos looking out West to the Atlantic.

Basically, I’m going to be sat on a beach, drinking a cold one with a hankie on my head and just to emphasise this fact I’ll over exaggerate the mornings output I will keep looking as there is more than enough to keep me interested have a good holiday, sounds like someone needs one

To continue briefly with the gfs. By Friday the ridge is still under immense pressure and a front is lying across N. Ireland and Scotland bringing some patchy rain but it goes no further and fizzles out. A simlar scenario on on Sunday vis the front but some changes are afoot to the west with the Bermuda subtropical high amplifying strongly which forces the Atlantic trough to unravel and as the ridge nudges east, fronts do manage to to traverse the country from the NW on Tuesday/