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Instead, you might have misunderstood the 'Cold Hunt' thread.

GAME ON AGAIN - EARLY MARCH!!!

My advice is what I said at the beginning of winter and that is just stick with the model output upto +144. However I can guarantee many will continue to seek beyond this timeframe because its addictive and half the fun is the thrill of the chase. However some of the constant moaners on here should stick with my advice!

I believe the odds of a cold spell have increased this morning - The low thats appeared on the UKMO can sink through the block & act as a trigger low holding the high to the North in situ- This is an essential ingredient to sustaining any cold over the UK..

Just thought i would let all Cold Hunters know that Legritter is about and ready for a good HUNT ,Something is brewing nothing is set in stone .If i may just add todays exeter update , they are seeing high pressure and hinting at something wintry , i know many will say that they have been saying this all winter so far but we have the possibility of high pressure setting up in a good position .So come on Gang , C H Q S ,Cold Hunters Quick Step , sausage sandwiches ,STellas ,cheers

Both the trendsetters have the trigger low nicely positioned early on (120-144 ) like the UKMO -

Which year?

Difficult to work out the outlook because even at +144 the UKMO is more amplified than the ECM. This all impacts on how we move on from here i.e High remains in situ over Scandi or backs NW to Greenland. The pendulum keeps swinging because the UKMO keeps varying between the most promising at +144 to being the worst. I will say though I cannot help keep looking at the chance of blocking to our NW developing and the PV dropping into Russia. Can we see the dream scenario of an incredibly cold airmass moving towards the UK during the last week of Feb?? After the dismal winter we deserve this winter to go out with a bang!

instead of looking at charts at 11 days away charts in the more reliable time frame will be a lot more accurate and these charts below a quite shocking sadly

These Background Signals just get better and better don't they!!!

Give it up m8..you cant apply what some fail to understand/see.. A mild interlude is nailed...WE ALL KNOW THAT !!. but as you suggest..logic tells you this is a perfect exaction to file in a cold spell via ways of evolution...with warm air advecting-into the mid/upper latts and borh a drain an-strain on the nw quad-vortex Its like pulling teeth... Anyways.. @backloaded @winter saves the best untill last. Keep feb 20/22nd in your meteorlogical diaries.... Im going to lay down!!!!

T144 UKMO. The wheels are in motion the pv has moved away from the NW . Step 1 complete

Are you Darren Bett?

Meanwhile in the hunt for mild thread, the Ecm 12z shows charts to drool over..similar to the Gfs 12z next week.

Maybe this isn't the thread for you then?

Some model discussion wouldn't go a miss in here..

I don’t think I have another chase in me!!

Pump up the jam, pump it up, pump it up a little more, get the party going on the dance floor!

There is no point in having the hunt for cold then is there ?? It’s not at day 16 it starts around day 8 . What I don’t get is why people come on here if there gonna moan at people posting chars after day 5 ? When the 18z comes out I’ll go up to day 5 to keep you moaners from crying .

Day 8/9 is reliable but 11 isn’t?

Just this minute got off the phone, from my mate Theresa, and everything is jogging along, just fine...'Never fear, it's all in my safe hands: snow means snow,' she told me!

A this stage it may be termed 'Cluster's last stand'

I was just going to say. @Essex snowman hasn't got any of his mates tonight, he is on his own, as @Westcountry Storm @mountain shadow are not here, but fear not, @Frost HoIIow has just had some laughing gas now as well!!!

Highest gust here in Barra so far is still 64mph from just before 12pm. Its been cloudy with rain up to 20mm and windy all day. I went out later in the afternoon and got some photos looking out West to the Atlantic.

Just a quick one from me, seems to be a theme developing today from GFS/GEFS and EC/EPS (so far) to by pass a Scandi high developing and instead ridge builds north over Western Europe next week, before perhaps building NW to Iceland/Greenland the following week. The reason, tropospheric polar vortex other side of Svalbard extending SW into Scandi, then perhaps eventually further SW over Europe from mid month with a ridge west or NW of UK by then. Going to be a slow process to get there and may have to endure a little mildness on the way, but I think the easterly may be off the table for now and besides it probably wouldn’t have brought us deep cold anyway given forecast temps out east next week.

Fri 8 February 2019 All 3 have been cinsistent over the pas 3 days or so for some kind of ridging/+ve heights spreading from southern Europe northwards towards Scandinavia, noaa shows the co f g of the +ve heights to have moved from just s of the uk to be over Scandinavia. Just how long this pattern may last is not clear. The 8-14 suggests that the atlantic flow may well take over again. But not a 100% happening. Anyway the links below for all 3 models http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Eps/gefs.. 500 geo-pots.. Id say reprasentavie of many clusters!. And a certain big starting point for desirable blocking... Forcing and placements begin 2 take the upper hands... @my punt..= the most notable spell of winter is awaiting in the wings....keep watching...

Still a good depth of snow around the famous Crask Inn

And the steps are complete . This only at day 10

These are the MSL pressure ens graphs for the areas we are looking to for height rises Scandinavia or Griceland as expected the ridging towards our ne is more likely in the shorter term.Much uncertainty further on wrt hts rising to our nw.Phase 8 of the mjo would suggest that evolution as we head towards week 3 similar to GFS 06z op run. Hard to say from this range if this will pan out but a trend worth watching for sure.

Why come in here to comment then if it's that boring? Surely there are far more exciting internet threads to frequent.

Anyone still got some energy left for one more cold chase? I can understand all the doubts expressed over all this Winter's let downs but i always treat each new situation the same and look at what the outputs say,if they prove wrong then so be it. So a look at tonight's EPS clusters days 12-15 which a small majority cluster favouring a UK High moving nw towards Greenland.Still a decent cluster though for the Euro(milder)pattern. Day 12 day 15 A strong enough signal for a pattern change towards cold in a couple of weeks which are also showing in today's gfs runs so it has some support.We would be looking for low pressure to eventually undercut the high in order to bring in the cold though,something like cluster 3 above. This will not come about in the next week so another few days of model runs before we can start to gain confidence if this will happen. Still let's get this high established first and see where it goes bearing in mind we will likely to see a some milder days first before it(hopefully)moves nw.

Does your full stop button work?

OK I'm slightly concerned about the kisses there!!

If ya like the synoptics on offer atm/@this range... Then id like 2 see the responces come wednesday/thurs-nxt week when synoptics of perhaps even better..are begining 2 fall on our laps!!.. On we gain!!!!

Tootled up to Durness yesterday and after the early freezing rain had cleared there were some stunning views to be had. First couple of Ben Hope from the East then view from the Tongue to Durness and last one of the stunning beach at Durness.

Yes the clearance of the Canadian lobe and movement of the main vortex to the Siberian side is what we want to see and is the first part of any future Heights to our nw. Just to add the building sub-tropical ridge is also a key part of it and it can bring a temporary mild interlude before the high goes north and we start to see the change to cold.

Many posts are more suited to the Winter thread, Nothing wrong with the odd joke based around the models, But let's please leave out the moaning, Discussing other posters and meto to keep this thread what it's intended for. Otherwise posts will start to magically dissapear Thanks and please continue.

It could be just forget the models they are just a guess Just sit back relax and enjoy what’s around you enjoy your family and have a great evening it’s just weather you ain’t ever getting this time back Mother Nature will carry on so should we

Day 9 GFS 12z ECM 12z day 10 Very very similar and we all know where the gfs went after . Doh I’ve done it again posted charts after day 5 .

Wish we could have the names of the members back at the bottom of the page again. You never know if your alone in here anymore.. Added to the atmosphere in here when you could see a cold spell coming and the members count would increase daily lol.. plus it's nice to know who's online.

Very windy down by the river Leven where it enters the Firth of forth, tide not fully in yet a don't think but the waves are picking up and I'd imagine will be toppling the wall at some point soon, quite common for here and the swimming pool(just to the right outside the picture) often gets a flooded basement

A strengthening signal for blocking in the Atlantic/Greenland sector after mid month. Still too far away to know what will come of it but looks like a late Winter outbreak is on the cards at the moment.

Blimey I just popped into the other thread and got hit between the eyes by , "game on - early March", which has confused me somewhat, albeit that is easily done. I say this because having glanced at the EC46 update earlier I'd added some factor 35 to my next shopping list. thinking at last we are getting what we deserve.

2019.

Ye of little faith!!. This run actually fits the remit.. And if anything its 3/4 to late in its own evolution.via forcing/and blocking format. Today may be marked as the drop off point.... Onwards we go.

Excellent GFS6Z. If thats a goer coldies will be happy!

Im not even gona bother lookin at the charts cos you just know what rubbish shall be shown for cold lovers and whatever good there is will be yes i will say it........10 Days or more away and stay there!!anyway time for a run

The NH 500mb for midnight and the 0400 chart along with the 0300 WV image As can be seen storm Erik has arrived NW of Ireland and the rain from the warm front(s) is currently tracking NE across the country to be quickly followed by the band on the cold front with a more easterly component This will clear most areas by 1800 leaving in it's wake frequent squally showers. The exception here is Scotland where the close proximity of the low and the wrap around occlusion results in the heavy rain lingering/ And about now the wind is starting to pick up and through the day will bring gales. perhaps severe in some areas, to many western and coastal regions. Best just left to the forecast charts to illustrate this. The rain over Scotland will continue this evening and overnight and spread further afield to incorporate N. Ireland and the north of England. At the same time the very strong winds will continue to be a problem, particularly over north Wales and NW England With Erik moving slowly NE it will remain very windy through saturday, easing a tad later, thus squally showers and sunny intervals but another wave has formed on weakening occlusion and that may bring more persistent rain for a time. Overnight Saturday and through Sunday the wind will abate considerably as the low continues to track north east with sunshine and showers being the order of the day. But there are some complications as a wave has formed on the trailing front to the south west and nips NE to bring a band of rain to southern parts, By Monday the main trough is to the east with the subtropical high ridging over the UK so a much calmer and drier day after some widespread frost first up,