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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/02/19 in all areas

  1. May I suggest that those who wish to conduct the winter post mortem two day into February perhaps wait until winter is actually over. And by that I mean something like April? I mean, unless you were under a rock last March it is exceptionally premature. Would you write off Summer in August?! No. Calling people out for having the balls to nail their colours to the mast and call a longer range pattern and publicly give a forecast a shot should be applauded not ridiculed. I don’t see many of you who are saying ‘I told you so’ with a great deal of public analysis under your belts. be nice.
    45 points
  2. Precisely! Nobody should be eating any humble pie. They should be applauded for having the bravery to interpret these background signals to try and make a forecast and interpret where the modelling is going wrong. Nobody has ever guaranteed a bitter Winter for the UK and I would suggest it is only those who are now having a tantrum because they didn't get a cold Winter or snow in their back garden that need to take a look at themselves. It's the cold hunt thread so the said posters are going to be looking for cold! Yes this Winter has been disappointing as a whole and I am yet to see a proper snowcover but if you don't want to learn about the signals that may or may not allow us to make a longer range forecast then go back to reading the tea leaves! So fed up with the snide comments and disrespect in this thread. Not to mention the constant Winter is over posts and all based on getting out on the wrong side of bed and looking at some long range op runs that show a bit of milder weather! It's laughable! Rant over! ?
    30 points
  3. Morning!!.. The big deviant for our part (telecon).. =PNA. the signal atm is clear and notable 2 see why we have rapidly converted and lost the desirable blocking formats!!! Look @how the pacific placement has leaned away and for now scuppered/and thrown the positive teleconect signal into chaos.. We no longer (for now) have a desirable punch of angle @/around the pacific mid/western seaboard...its an angle of misery-placing pressure on the canadian/american lobe..yet unfavourably..again-for now, and aligns the jet (as modeled) with a steep run into the nirthern americas-and a sharp forcing of an-atlantic boom jet...rite across the atlantic...and YES at us!! Obviously at this point(4 now) shutting the door firmly on any decent chances for pockets off waa..2 develop into a block situ. HOWEVER!!! again this response is 1 with a little time can rapidly change.. As momentum gains.. And as have HINTED here and there throughout-some latest data...then the foe quickly becomes friend again..especialy with some eye catching russian warmth which looks a stubborn plot... Although-atm via mods an unlikely scenario...keep a firm eye on the geographical points...and look for an engagement of the pair (psrtial or otherwise...across the polar field... My humble pie-remains on the shelf @marks and sparks STILL.. have a good day people. Xxx
    25 points
  4. Couple of points. 1) Even if today's models are correct, which is highly unlikely considering day 10 performance, ENS sets flipping in 1 run and the general lack of atlantic weather that's been handed to us at day 10 this winter ever verifying. 2) Even if it does verify, we've had 2 march's in the last few years that have provided better than ANY OTHER winter month for decades here in the Midlands for snow and cold. 3) Mild weather isn't a problem. I've lost count of the amount of times I speak to my customers in mid February who tell me it's mild and spring is on it's way - only to see them 3 weeks later and get the usual 'I thought we'd finished with this' as they are wrapped up and March is very cold. 4) At least if the atlantic weather verifies, we actually get some weather. If it's not going to snow, then bring on rain and windstorms - I'm a weather fan, not a fan of endless dry, predominantly dull or sunny boring days. Last summer was HELL as a weather fan and I'm really hoping we have a very wert, very active and very thundery summer for entertainment value. It may 'feel' like it - but we can get weather cold enough for accumulating snow for another 7 weeks - Spring is still 2 months away, regardless of the odd day that gets to 15c! The later it comes, the quicker we can skip summer and be back into autumn mode come early September! Keep the faith, you have 6 weeks to find a snow event yet.
    24 points
  5. Now we’ve just gotta count this down . It shouldn’t be to much drama ?
    22 points
  6. What I find odd about the current output is generally speaking Febuary is a month when blocking is more likely. If you combine that with the background signals then the output is somewhat baffling and is more like what you expect in early winter. Only straw to clutch is +300 only takes us to mid Feb. Still despite remaining sceptical with these background signals I will not personally attack any member for bravely putting out a LRF by using them. I applaud any member making a LRF whether its using science, seagulls or seaweed!
    19 points
  7. Agree with all comments so far, ECM T240: Anyone putting a positive spin on that one is not so much polishing a turd, but encasing it in glass, and putting it on a marble plinth in its own display cabinet!
    18 points
  8. March 18th last year ... just saying ?
    18 points
  9. I'll apologise now to the snow starved contingent, but we hit the jackpot... Off to clear the drive again and measure depths. Edit : Depth on driveway, which was cleared so overnight fall, around 10 cm. Total as best I can tell as it varies, is around 20cm on average (8 inches)
    18 points
  10. I’m not convinced about early spring - while we have failed to get a reversed pattern we have seen cold air spill out of the arctic, and the jet overall has dropped further south. I don’t see a warm March - anticyclonic and grey would be my call given ongoing expectations that the Atlantic will gradually fade under SSW conditions. Totally agree about North Atlantic rolling over the top. The odd thing is that it hasn’t actually been stormy. If we think back over the last few weeks we have had very little in the way of strong cyclonic activity.....and yet still we haven’t managed to get a block to pop into place. It’s as though the 2 sumo wrestlers in an earlier analogy have actually found themselves both to have a pulled hamstring! But that doesn’t make sense when one considers the momentum profiles over the winter so far and the easterly bias that has definitely landed now on zonal wind profiles. We have Masiello posting GFS flow diagrammes showing a big Siberian high building as this easterly momentum gathers influence, but the North Atlantic remains blissfully in a +NAO state. I like to try and see through the language of expert posters....and I thought Amy Butler’s tweet earlier was interesting- advertising a tanking AO heading to around 2 or 3 SDs below 0 and then adding in passing that the NAO however was set to remain positive. No explanation of that fact - just a statement. Also therefore puzzled? And Dean from the Met on twitter posted that the SSW was so severe in its impacts on the trop that it was blocking the MJO signal. I’m lost on that one - it’s an interesting view and probably reveals my lack of understanding....but conceptually I don’t understand what he means by that, and it feels a bit contentious. Best argument out there to me has been the idea that the atmosphere has actually been very unstable and twitching in response to the interplay between a very warm polar stratosphere coupled with a very cold tropical stratosphere. Suggestion here is that, under very cold tropical strat conditions, the MJO loses its coherence and jumps around a lot....and that the speed of transfer between phases without any sustained holding in either 7, 8 or 1 has prevented the block from forming. We certainly have had some very swift MJO progression so maybe there is something in this explanation...and a twitchy atmosphere would create tropospheric vibration too insignificant to shift the whole pattern. Maybe. I did also read earlier today the article linked by Butler to QBO research. Authors acknowledge a definite connection between QBO sign at 15 and 30hpa and NAO and AO tendency. We have been wQBO at those heights for a while, so there is a forcing we can grasp. I think we all knew going in to this winter that it was disappointing that the eQBO was on its way out, and back in early autumn some of us were posting hoping it would slow its progress. This fact we have been ignoring over the last month. Anyway enough waffle - I am looking forward to seeing whether late winter brings any interesting variations. We should all know by now that the long range Met forecast isn’t worth toast and jam.... and twice in six years March has delivered more cold and snow than any of those same 6 Februarys.....so maybe we are seeing a pattern developing regarding the back end of winter in the current period. Cold and anticyclonic March wouldn’t need too many tweaks to become blocked and easterly. And this EPS chart isn’t far off being interesting. Winter isn’t over yet....
    18 points
  11. Well Scotland's smallest and newest ski resort is just about open for business. It only has one short run, manual uplift and a few unnatural hazards (motorhome & car) to navigate but it's quiet and has excellent views across the Howe of Alford.
    17 points
  12. Morning all - Well the thaw started almost immediately after the snow stopped yesterday so today's planned drone shots not as 'snowy' as I expected but nonetheless, what a great event. Here's a few shots from yesterday and this morning. Cheers!
    17 points
  13. If you want to go sledging come up to blue bell hill. Only 1 family sledging at the mo. ( @Paul Sherman ) Generally 4-5 inches and roads aren’t too bad now. The gritters did a good job eventually after all the chaos of last night. Cars and lorries have been abonded around here. Even the m2 only has two driveable lanes still as the other is snow covered. Ive seen three trees down. What’s amazed me is the amount of snow sticking to the trees. It’s like I’m back in Canada. Some impressive drifts up to 2ft in places. All in all quite a remarkable non forecasted event. A few pics - more to follow
    17 points
  14. A few pics I've just taken in the garden, been playing hunt the snowball with the dogs, silly spaniels are always convinced they can find them. Christmas trees buried in the snow, now wish I had put them back up by the front door. Not sure I'll be using my smoking bench today, looks soft and cushioned but could be a bit nippy...…
    16 points
  15. I don't think slagging off other posters is acceptable, the models are what they are and the outlook currently points to milder..but it's not the end of the world!..last winter didn't even wake up until almost spring!
    16 points
  16. And the scientists in the relevant fields will hold an inquest as to why and once the bones have been picked a little more knowledge will be added to the complex jigsaw that is Stratosphere-Troposphere coupling. That is after all how science works
    16 points
  17. 15 deg. Lovely spring like weather on its way, if the cold won’t come let’s wrap this winter up and start with an early Spring.
    16 points
  18. Great on the trail up Fyrish today. Another cold one tonight, -9.6c currently
    15 points
  19. Perhaps the SSW has already 'been'. Deep cold with the very marked trough over Europe from early in January. Intense cold in parts of US and Canada. SSW's do not guarantee deep long lasting cold for this tiny island. No at all sure of the statistics but I would suggest no more than 1 in 3 have the effect most on here wish for.
    15 points
  20. The Cheviot, at 815m it's the 35th highest hill in England. More than half of what lies between where I took the pic and the summit of the Cheviot is in England so it gives an idea of how close to the border I live. I zoomed in with my phone so it might be a bit low res:
    15 points
  21. Those photo's are clearly fabricated. We never ever get any snow after the end of feb, meteorological winter is finished remember ?
    14 points
  22. It is not fair to say long range forecasting hasn't improved. Some people just expect too much.
    14 points
  23. 13cm here. some got 20+ in Mendips, out Bath way and Somerset (add in further East overnight and today Wilts, Berks, Hamp.) Glos, Cotswolds, S Wales got into Northern Extent as did Ox) Further in town (Bris) probs a bit less but 10 to 12 cm widely. Cornwall, Devon got high moors action and unexpected sea level snow (include Dorset) - I saw Hayle and Newquay recording heavy snow - Main road over Bodmin got out of hand 100s put up overnight!. It was one of those nights where nowcasting was King and the models were "erratic". And it kept going all day today. Multiple, stalled and fully circulatory mesoscale features breaking away and feeding back into Occlusions and associated Upper Low fronts caused havoc (several times over the period)
    14 points
  24. A few photos from this afternoon and sunset round the Firth. Currently -3c
    13 points
  25. So, just over 2/3 of the way through winter, what have we learnt? Idiots like me who suggested a front loaded cold winter for the UK based on a predicted, and actual, weak tropospheric polar vortex in December, were wrong. Won't do that again! Possible reason, unfavourable sea surface temperatures, left over from summer. The SSW event was well forecast but proceeded much slower than expected in terms of the run up, and later on in the downwelling. Colder conditions the last couple of weeks likely the first effects on the UK of that downwelling, but if the ultimate effect of an SSW is for cold to impact the mid latitudes - somewhere - it's hard to argue against the US being the recipients this time! A period of milder Atlantic based weather is now likely, how long an open question. Long range models, forecasts, particularly the much vaunted ECM 46 have performed poorly for the UK. They have been consistent, yes, but now looking consistently wrong. Still every chance the SSW will influence our weather for several weeks more, so if the jet buckles favourably, I would not be surprised to see a high latitude block favourable for the UK. But the clock, if not yet ticking, has at least been wound up! Finally, what are we in the hunt for cold for? Speaking for myself although to experience a once in a lifetime cold spell e.g. 63 would be great, it is not an expectation each year. Rather a more modest ambition just to see some winter weather at all, and some of us did yesterday, longest continuous snowfall in my area that I can remember. That already puts this winter above every one of the last 6 apart from last year! With this month or a bit more remaining, I hope that those who missed out get their snow fix, before our thoughts turn to summer. Plenty time left.
    13 points
  26. Lots of silly writing off winter posts today. This was my rain gauge 18th March last year and I live 5 miles from the Channel coast at Weymouth.
    13 points
  27. Last few pics from me. Some show how clear the main roads are now (though back roads are very tricky) and a few cars abandoned. Also in one of the pics you can just make out the green grass down the hill. Elevation obviously key. Heres hoping we get something this month that isn’t marginal so everyone can enjoy the snow
    13 points
  28. Thanks to those yesterday that kindly shared their pics. I was watching with awe at the pics as it was raining all day here in the SE. Well I got lucky and hit the jackpot with 5 inches in 5 hours late last night. Not forecasted at all. I wanted to share a few pics myself. As I do love to see snow no matter what part of the country. Hope everyone has enjoyed this snowy spell. ?
    13 points
  29. Am posting this with my flak jacket and helmet on just in case I get shot at, however, as someone who reads the threads daily summer and winter I feel the unkind posts criticising those who have tried to understand and use the background signals to give an indication of the winter weather are a little unfair. Unless I am mistaken yes there was talk of some major cold and snow and isn't that what Austria and parts of North America have experienced? What would the negative posters be posting today if that cold blob of vortex had landed over the UK instead of Chicago? I don't recall anyone saying extreme cold would drop on any particular post code in the UK for definite. As @knocker says there is so much information to learn from this winter, the background signals etc that did or didn't come together favourably for the UK and all these variables will absolutely add to the body of knowledge for the future.
    13 points
  30. 13 points
  31. 13 points
  32. Morning all, It must have been me stopping the snow from falling with any potency at first, last night. Perhaps I still carry the Snow Depth Cup jinx? Come 10 o'clock last night, I was feeling very tired. I turned my Laptop off and prepared myself for bed. I decided to have one more look, out of the front door. The snow was bucketing down with already a complete cover on all surfaces. This carried on for another hour or so and stopped around midnight, or so. I got up during the night and noticed that the complete snow cover was starting to diminish, no doubt due to the fact that the ground was so wet initially. I've just seen my Wife off to work, at a Residential Care Home in Chislehurst and there is still a partial covering of snow outside, although much reduced compared to when the snow was at it's heaviest, last night. I want to apologise to those members in East Kent, in Alexis/Lottie land. The idea of a train of showers hitting this area, didn't quite come off. Showers stubbornly staying offshore, probably due to the fact that there was a tad too much North, in the flow!! I see a slight "Wash Streamer" fired up though with a portion breaking off and heading for N.London but fizzling before reaching there. I t really has been a fascinating 24+ hours of weather observing. As I stated last night, in the 50+ years of observing the weather in Bromley and surrounding areas, I can't remember witnessing a rain>snow event twice, in 24+ hours. That's right up there with some of my best weather memories!! I just want to say a big thank you to Darren (Kold Weather), Nick Finnis, Steve Murr and Paul Sherman. Some fantastic posts and very helpful technical input, in what became a very complex, Synoptic set-up. Their posts made the last 24+ hours, even more enjoyable. I'd also like to thank all those who reported from my Home Borough of Bromley. Always nice to know how my 'ole "stomping ground" is shaping up, in these situations. Finally, a big thank you to John Stevens for his kind comments regarding my anecdotal "ramblings"!! Regards, Tom. PS. Also wanted to say what a great Weather Forum, this is. It's really "come into it's own", in the last couple of days. With all the up to date snow reports and conditions, out in the "field". The sort of current information that large Weather Organisations, can't compete with!! Well done, Netweather.
    13 points
  33. 12 points
  34. 12 points
  35. Not sure how this will look posted on here. Will give it a go. Spot the doggy!
    12 points
  36. Ukmo days 5/6 showing a wedge of sorts around greeny .....very weak but could keep the jet flatter and potentially more se with some luck !
    12 points
  37. Incredible day here in North Hampshire for messing around in the snow. Blue sky, crisp snow and the promise of a hard frost tonight.
    12 points
  38. A few from last night Even a couple of trollies had to be abandoned
    12 points
  39. Thanks. I’m pretty well versed in sun angles. Fairly sure we have had significant heat in August, though so not sure what your point is aside from trying to pick an argument? ??
    12 points
  40. Thank you. I'm not sure how much in the end, I stopped measuring when it got to 28cm as although still snowing heavily, the weight was compacting the snow and it stopped getting any deeper on the table. There was a bit of a thaw late afternoon but followed by a harsh overnight frost means we've still got deep cover here. Just been out in the garden to play with the dogs/take a few pics, table still has 22cm of cover. Looks beautiful with the sun and clear blue sky, dripping lots in the sunshine though.
    12 points
  41. I’m not I’m not going to answer specific posters because I don’t want to appear antagonistic Here are the seven day means for the week up to yesterday and the week beginning yesterday Now to say that these show no northern high anomolys affecting our weather is plain wrong what they also show is the mobility I have been banging on about .......catcol mentions twitchiness of the patterns and he maybe onto something ..... what the 46 and other LR forecasts got right was euro troughing at the back end of jan and into feb. however, they persisted with that prediction and as we can see this is what’s falling apart over the next week or so. We still have high anoms to the north but the Azores ridge is sticking its nose in and preventing the jet continuing with its nw/se flow. Evidently the deep cold outbreak upstream is responsible ........I suppose the depth of that cold couldn’t be seen by the modelling at range and it’s quick onset and departure only helps to keep that mobility issue going As for at Steve and tight isobar think of their predictions being a bust ..........you’ll have to ask them but I suspect they are too busy making snowmen in their gardens ! And as for January’s T2 anoms, feb wouldn’t have put their hands up for this at the end of December ...
    12 points
  42. Anyway there's no trying to apologise to some people so I may as well just show a pic of what they're missing out on ???
    12 points
  43. Lots of lying snow still and I don't know if its been mentioned already but today is Candlemas so I will just leave this here..... If Candlemas Day be fair and bright, Winter will have another fight, But if it be dark with clouds and rain, Winter is gone and won't come again." Its been fair and bright today FWIW I think we will go cold again around the 11th don't ask me why just a hunch.
    11 points
  44. Good days sledging today. View of Mount Keen in the distance. Just over 3,000ft peak.
    11 points
  45. Didn’t have to go far from Cobham to see some pleasant wintry scenes around Headley just to the South of Epsom. Important to make the effort I think judging by the current state of play with the upstream pattern - the clock is definitely ticking on this crazy season !
    11 points
  46. Its been one hell of a slow downwelling, Europe got the starter course, USA have just had the main course, and wiat for it blighty is about to get there just deserts!! The fat lady may be in rehearsals, but I ain't heard her sing yet! ?
    11 points
  47. I agree with most of this, but take issue with the bit in bold, last year was brilliant in that we didn't have a spring, straight from winter to summer, that's how I like it! I love both the extreme seasons and don't get enthused by either spring or autumn to be honest. I think we may be looking at an extension of winter into March given the long range models such as CFS and GloSea5. Fits with the SSW impacts too.
    11 points
  48. So it was worth the drive up from dustville (Ashtead) to Narnia (Box Hill!)!!! Me and my brother @Chertseystreamer79 both reliving our childhoods growing up here in the 80s winters ? and now with our own children!!!
    11 points
  49. What a remarkable few days... the build up.. the let down for some and then the sudden turn around for some of us... though some still had none, some had a bit, some had an inch or two and some had up to a foot ! Been a roller coaster ride and great to read all the comments ! I note that this thread started on 1st December and it now runs to 240 pages. But... the last 160 belong to this current spell ! Here's to the next Atlantic invasion ! Well... no chance of a beast from the east! Or.... is there ? This lurker will surely be back again! ?
    11 points
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