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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/02/19 in all areas
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2 things I don’t want to do now - firstly to suggest that winter is over now (my more pessimistic recent posts have been guilty of that) and secondly to ignite a debate on AGW. But we do need to accept that globally things are happening that are more than just better/more media reporting. The cold in Chicago is exceptional. The heat in Australia was the same. Last year’s SSW shredded the vortex and created a really dramatic tropospheric reversal of a kind I don’t think we have seen before. This season we had an SSW that produced a 23 day reversal at 10hpa which makes it a top 3 event at that level. We have MJO forecasts that are wildly variable (more than usually so) and a global SST picture that is increasingly painting the globe yellow/red in above average readings. Arctic sea ice is in summer crisis, and let’s not forget a very odd QBO event in the last few years (2016?) that turned an easterly to a westerly without warning. Th bottom line is that unusual and extreme weather is getting more common, and possibly our models are going to be increasingly stretched in trying to take them into account. Is low sea ice going to begin a pattern of more high lat blocking in autumn which then triggers more vortex perturbation? How will this interact with a trend towards lower solar influence perhaps over the next cycle? I could go on at length, but won’t. My children get bored when I start talking weather, but their generation may well be increasingly subject to these extremes. And I’m convinced - a big and very cold UK winter is on the horizon somewhere in the next 5 - 10 years because of the growing list of extreme pre conditions. And perhaps it is therefore time to view any medium to longe range NWP with more suspicion than normal.35 points
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You know all those times when folk say 'ooo, it's not cold enough for snow' and the endless times we all hear 'cold has to be entrenched to get decent snow' well it's not true, it doesn't necessarily take a Siberian blast to get snow. It's not particularly cold, there is no beast and we've had 20 hours of continuous snow in the mild South West. It wasn't a slushy mess, it didn't struggle to settle, and it just got deeper and deeper - stopped measuring at 28cm as the weight was compacting it. So the next time the models aren't looking particularly promising, remember sometimes the most borderline of conditions can deliver the most.28 points
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Morning from a very frustrated TEITS. Missed out on the snow on Tues and the front last night stalled around 20 miles to my S. So I am yet to see a single snowflake fall this winter!! Back to the models and im disappointed with the trend between +96 to +120. I mentioned yesterday about the low pressure tracking SE, ridge from Azores, potential E,ly. Well the models have flattened the ridge and the low in the Atlantic is much further E than some model runs suggested. Still I am not throwing the towel in just yet. I am not convinced the low at +72 is correctly modelled. Whilst an E,ly might appear unlikely I still believe we could yet see a sudden switch from the model towards an E,ly appearing at +144/+168.25 points
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I’m sorry you’ve been dealt a bad hand. I’m also away from home where the fun is, and it’s galling. The flattening of the ridge is the same consistent pattern that we have suffered all winter. I have read a few explanations as to why this is happening, but I’m not convinced 100% by any of them, given the near complete agreement as we approached mid Jan that a cold and blocked spell was coming. Let’s not forget how fortunate we have been to pick up some snow this week - there really wasn’t a block to disrupt again and very fine margins have come together to produce last nights snow. It isn’t the product of the forecasted cold - different context entirely. The forecast has been a near total bust, and the outlook continues to frustrate. As has become clear for a week or more now - we simply aren’t seeing a coherent pattern that is allowing cementing of a block to NW,N or NE. It will be a really interesting post match analysis in a few weeks if this continues to be the case. Much to consider....the strength of yet another SSW, curious MJO behaviour, Nino like momentum conditions in what looks a very neutral profile etc etc. I don’t have an answer yet, and as you say - the forecast for February is in no way certain yet and hints may improve, but has been a most unusual winter season overall.21 points
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Is this the first time that I’ve ever wanted to go to Basingstoke?20 points
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It stopped here a while ago but I think in total it was about 20 hours of continuous snowfall, (never thought I'd get to say that) I stopped measuring at 28cm because although still snowing heavily it wasn't getting any deeper, guessing it was compacting with weight. Been out for a wander, there's a bit of a thaw going on here but the sun is going down and it's forecast to freeze, doubt it will thaw very much. Took some pics, forgive all the tree ones, I'm ever so slightly obsessed with snow covered trees. Went to the old church across the fields (used in Poldark) had to take a pic of Scott's memorial in the snow - just think, the snow starved fool went all the way to the south pole to get his snow fix.19 points
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*Enters model thread* Sees talk of earthquakes volcanoes global warming and climate on other planets and still no model discussion. *Leaves model thread*18 points
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-7.2C here this morning was my lowest this Winter. A beautiful sunny morning but still cold at -4C in the garden. Did anyone see the Northern Lights last night? Here are a couple of pics from Aberfeldy last night, courtesy of Iain Struthers. He said he couldn’t take any more as his hands were starting to freeze.18 points
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Options a plenty... People calling 4 springwatch and winters over..is again utter madness on the 1st of feb!! I think it is safe to assume 2 things here. The models are going to jump from 1 extrene 2 the over in the nxt 3 days. The effects of the upper atmosphere playing havoc now... And no clear trend is availible AT-ALL ..cross all outage!!! As is clear to view. Watch even through some of later todays suites the wild divergance!!. For me (and always has been).. Backloaded-and full of BIG potential.. Keep watching!!17 points
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Snows been over for a while now. Will probably melt tomorrow but I have made some great snowmen, gone for walks, taken photos, gone sledging! Measured 18cm at it's maximum depth which is probably the biggest for a very long time. Still 2 months left in this winter for more snow but if anybody else on that MAD thread say this winter has been terrible, they are wrong! I will remember this forever. Something about this particular snow event so much better, maybe something to do with the last minute wobbles where lots of us thought it wouldn't happen and then we got upwards of 15cm! Just south of me infact there was 27cm of snow recorded! 2 out of 3 months it has snowed this winter lol! Hope everybody enjoyed it And there is still the chance for more snow this winter because this one actually happened in the depths of winter!15 points
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Just looked at the radar and the snow in the south has turned to sleet, this winter really is pants. GFS meanwhile is giving us deep south westerlies by next weekend with a Iberian High that is verging on a Bartlett! Don't know about SSW downwelling, this is tropical air upwelling! Christ, you couldn't make it up. Andy15 points
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Yes that last para C, especially the bit highlighted. I cannot remember since being on here anything quite like it. And no I have not the faintest idea why. SSW's seem to have about a 30% link into deep cold occurring in a UK winter from my recollection, I'm talking of mid/early winter not the back end mind you. Some may well disagree with that as I have no statistics that I can find to back that up. But certainly an unusual winter. Just back from my usual spell in the Jungfrau region and it was the coldest and also the best snow conditions I remember in quite a few years. The hotel owners and some of the regulars also agreed. The deep trough that edged back west early in the New Year was the reason but why did it do that? It did allow, at times, fro quite cold air to run SE from the N Atlantic across many areas. That was also not something we see in many winters. Again some may have data to show I am wrong. The 500 mb anomaly charts have certainly changed whilst I have been away but they still suggest nothing in the next 2 weeks that would suggest deep cold developing for any length of time. Reading the Met O updates shows that the professionals have been just as unsure of how the SSW would impact on the UK. Very interesting and we may see a 'paper' written about this some time in the future. I managed to have an ice day yesterday, lasting from 1830 30/01 until 0930 1/2, and even some light snow showers, one as I type. Yes an unusual winter so far. It will be a really interesting post match analysis in a few weeks if this continues to be the case. Much to consider....the strength of yet another SSW, curious MJO behaviour, Nino like momentum conditions in what looks a very neutral profile etc etc. I don’t have an answer yet, and as you say - the forecast for February is in no way certain yet and hints may improve, but has been a most unusual winter season overall.15 points
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No more Winter is over posts please unless backed up by a proper analysis of the models and bear in mind also that this is the cold hunt thread.15 points
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25, yes 25cm of even laying snow and it's still chucking it down.....I feel a shaky exclamation coming on....WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!14 points
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You know when all forecasts predict a rainy front to clear early in the day but it lingers for hours and makes a horrible wet/dampday. Well it’s happening now, with a snowy front !14 points
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Just mention the 06Z GFS seems to strengthen the front once again with heavy snow developing this afternoon. I am yet to see a single snowflake this winter but pleased for those who have seen snowfall.13 points
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Hello. Just popping in from the Midlands thread to say: good for you guys! It is actually cheering me up a lot reading this. Yes, it's very frustrating for it to be totally dry here in north Worcs when nearly every forecast had me in the sweet spot (Worcester seems about the N boundary) but it's so good to see many of you in the SW finally get a really big fall. If anyone here ever looked enviously at the Midlands in Dec 2017 when we had the huge fall and wondered what it was like... well, it was like this! Enjoy!12 points
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I don't half post a load of old cobblers....lol....shows how little I really know about the weather....lol to sum up the current snow in footballing terms... Moscow, Vladivostok, Antarctica, The North Pole, Sweden, Norway, The Midlands Regional thread, Shaky.......your boys just took one hell of a beating!......I'll fetch me coat12 points
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Abysmal continuity from the ECM which is all over the place in its later output . The GFS also joining the clueless club ! However at least they’ve both picked solutions this morning that are better than last night. I can cope with clueless and chopping and changing if we eventually land on the cold solution !12 points
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There is no doubt that the background signals do have an affect on the atmospheric circulation but they are quite broad brush and the problem is people hear the words 'mjo phase 7/8/1 has good analogues for northern blocking' or SSW and straight away assume that the block will be in the right place with a long fetch easterly with our name on it. People really need to look at a picture of the earth from space and look at the miniscule size of uk in global terms and then perhap they might understand how hard it is to get anything to hit that target. Then look at the size of the united states/canada and one can see that the current 'polar vortex' hitting the midwest could have dropped south the best part of 1000 mile east or west of where it has and still brought deep life threatening cold to some part of the united states/canada In our case we are so miniscule in global terms that 100 miles in any direction and we can miss out. We need to bear in mind as has been pointed out so many times that the default winter pattern for us is from the westerly quadrant. So an easterly is not just a small change from that pattern it is diametrically opposed to anything we should expect in winter, which is why they, like spells of cold/and snow of more than a few days in the UK are rarer than rocking horse poo. The background signals do not guarantee sustained cold /snow for the UK but you can can also guarantee that NONE of our extended cold/snowy spells or severe winters would have happened without them being favourable.11 points
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There's too much dumbing down these days. When I was younger the weather forecasts on TV were much more technical but didn't try to go into micro detail for a small area of land. You were told the general weather type for your part of the country, shown synoptic charts, told about the jet stream etc on a daily basis. Nowadays everyone has access to forecasts on apps from numerous sources with no explanation of probabilistic forecasting and they just look at the app and say "Oh it's going to snow at 3pm" and then get arsey when it doesn't snow til 4.30pm, or sleets at 2.45pm! The other thing that gets me is when the news says "forecasters are predicting heavy snow/rain/storms" and everyone just goes around like headless chickens saying "Oh it's going to (enter weather type) today!" without any understanding or context. There's too much data and not enough common sense just as you say.11 points
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Cold as f00k Hee haw snaw Pram is empty That is the forecast from Lunarty11 points
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