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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/02/19 in all areas

  1. 2 things I don’t want to do now - firstly to suggest that winter is over now (my more pessimistic recent posts have been guilty of that) and secondly to ignite a debate on AGW. But we do need to accept that globally things are happening that are more than just better/more media reporting. The cold in Chicago is exceptional. The heat in Australia was the same. Last year’s SSW shredded the vortex and created a really dramatic tropospheric reversal of a kind I don’t think we have seen before. This season we had an SSW that produced a 23 day reversal at 10hpa which makes it a top 3 event at that level. We have MJO forecasts that are wildly variable (more than usually so) and a global SST picture that is increasingly painting the globe yellow/red in above average readings. Arctic sea ice is in summer crisis, and let’s not forget a very odd QBO event in the last few years (2016?) that turned an easterly to a westerly without warning. Th bottom line is that unusual and extreme weather is getting more common, and possibly our models are going to be increasingly stretched in trying to take them into account. Is low sea ice going to begin a pattern of more high lat blocking in autumn which then triggers more vortex perturbation? How will this interact with a trend towards lower solar influence perhaps over the next cycle? I could go on at length, but won’t. My children get bored when I start talking weather, but their generation may well be increasingly subject to these extremes. And I’m convinced - a big and very cold UK winter is on the horizon somewhere in the next 5 - 10 years because of the growing list of extreme pre conditions. And perhaps it is therefore time to view any medium to longe range NWP with more suspicion than normal.
    36 points
  2. You know all those times when folk say 'ooo, it's not cold enough for snow' and the endless times we all hear 'cold has to be entrenched to get decent snow' well it's not true, it doesn't necessarily take a Siberian blast to get snow. It's not particularly cold, there is no beast and we've had 20 hours of continuous snow in the mild South West. It wasn't a slushy mess, it didn't struggle to settle, and it just got deeper and deeper - stopped measuring at 28cm as the weight was compacting it. So the next time the models aren't looking particularly promising, remember sometimes the most borderline of conditions can deliver the most.
    28 points
  3. Morning from a very frustrated TEITS. Missed out on the snow on Tues and the front last night stalled around 20 miles to my S. So I am yet to see a single snowflake fall this winter!! Back to the models and im disappointed with the trend between +96 to +120. I mentioned yesterday about the low pressure tracking SE, ridge from Azores, potential E,ly. Well the models have flattened the ridge and the low in the Atlantic is much further E than some model runs suggested. Still I am not throwing the towel in just yet. I am not convinced the low at +72 is correctly modelled. Whilst an E,ly might appear unlikely I still believe we could yet see a sudden switch from the model towards an E,ly appearing at +144/+168.
    25 points
  4. Morning all, just a couple of pics (will get out and take more later) we have 19cms level snow in the garden and it's still snowing well! Exceeded all my expectations. We're sooooooo lucky!
    22 points
  5. I’m sorry you’ve been dealt a bad hand. I’m also away from home where the fun is, and it’s galling. The flattening of the ridge is the same consistent pattern that we have suffered all winter. I have read a few explanations as to why this is happening, but I’m not convinced 100% by any of them, given the near complete agreement as we approached mid Jan that a cold and blocked spell was coming. Let’s not forget how fortunate we have been to pick up some snow this week - there really wasn’t a block to disrupt again and very fine margins have come together to produce last nights snow. It isn’t the product of the forecasted cold - different context entirely. The forecast has been a near total bust, and the outlook continues to frustrate. As has become clear for a week or more now - we simply aren’t seeing a coherent pattern that is allowing cementing of a block to NW,N or NE. It will be a really interesting post match analysis in a few weeks if this continues to be the case. Much to consider....the strength of yet another SSW, curious MJO behaviour, Nino like momentum conditions in what looks a very neutral profile etc etc. I don’t have an answer yet, and as you say - the forecast for February is in no way certain yet and hints may improve, but has been a most unusual winter season overall.
    21 points
  6. Is this the first time that I’ve ever wanted to go to Basingstoke?
    20 points
  7. -7 this morning! Cold, beautiful morning at work ?
    20 points
  8. It stopped here a while ago but I think in total it was about 20 hours of continuous snowfall, (never thought I'd get to say that) I stopped measuring at 28cm because although still snowing heavily it wasn't getting any deeper, guessing it was compacting with weight. Been out for a wander, there's a bit of a thaw going on here but the sun is going down and it's forecast to freeze, doubt it will thaw very much. Took some pics, forgive all the tree ones, I'm ever so slightly obsessed with snow covered trees. Went to the old church across the fields (used in Poldark) had to take a pic of Scott's memorial in the snow - just think, the snow starved fool went all the way to the south pole to get his snow fix.
    19 points
  9. *Enters model thread* Sees talk of earthquakes volcanoes global warming and climate on other planets and still no model discussion. *Leaves model thread* ?
    18 points
  10. -7.2C here this morning was my lowest this Winter. A beautiful sunny morning but still cold at -4C in the garden. Did anyone see the Northern Lights last night? Here are a couple of pics from Aberfeldy last night, courtesy of Iain Struthers. He said he couldn’t take any more as his hands were starting to freeze.
    18 points
  11. And it's still going! Now 25cm on the table, garden groaning under the weight and the winds blowing great big chunks around.
    18 points
  12. Options a plenty... People calling 4 springwatch and winters over..is again utter madness on the 1st of feb!! I think it is safe to assume 2 things here. The models are going to jump from 1 extrene 2 the over in the nxt 3 days. The effects of the upper atmosphere playing havoc now... And no clear trend is availible AT-ALL ..cross all outage!!! As is clear to view. Watch even through some of later todays suites the wild divergance!!. For me (and always has been).. Backloaded-and full of BIG potential.. Keep watching!!
    17 points
  13. Yes I am. A37 closed I said no way. Around 8 plus inches I think maybe more. Look at that fence lol
    16 points
  14. Snows been over for a while now. Will probably melt tomorrow but I have made some great snowmen, gone for walks, taken photos, gone sledging! Measured 18cm at it's maximum depth which is probably the biggest for a very long time. Still 2 months left in this winter for more snow but if anybody else on that MAD thread say this winter has been terrible, they are wrong! I will remember this forever. Something about this particular snow event so much better, maybe something to do with the last minute wobbles where lots of us thought it wouldn't happen and then we got upwards of 15cm! Just south of me infact there was 27cm of snow recorded! 2 out of 3 months it has snowed this winter lol! Hope everybody enjoyed it ? And there is still the chance for more snow this winter because this one actually happened in the depths of winter!
    15 points
  15. Just looked at the radar and the snow in the south has turned to sleet, this winter really is pants. GFS meanwhile is giving us deep south westerlies by next weekend with a Iberian High that is verging on a Bartlett! Don't know about SSW downwelling, this is tropical air upwelling! Christ, you couldn't make it up. Andy
    15 points
  16. Yes that last para C, especially the bit highlighted. I cannot remember since being on here anything quite like it. And no I have not the faintest idea why. SSW's seem to have about a 30% link into deep cold occurring in a UK winter from my recollection, I'm talking of mid/early winter not the back end mind you. Some may well disagree with that as I have no statistics that I can find to back that up. But certainly an unusual winter. Just back from my usual spell in the Jungfrau region and it was the coldest and also the best snow conditions I remember in quite a few years. The hotel owners and some of the regulars also agreed. The deep trough that edged back west early in the New Year was the reason but why did it do that? It did allow, at times, fro quite cold air to run SE from the N Atlantic across many areas. That was also not something we see in many winters. Again some may have data to show I am wrong. The 500 mb anomaly charts have certainly changed whilst I have been away but they still suggest nothing in the next 2 weeks that would suggest deep cold developing for any length of time. Reading the Met O updates shows that the professionals have been just as unsure of how the SSW would impact on the UK. Very interesting and we may see a 'paper' written about this some time in the future. I managed to have an ice day yesterday, lasting from 1830 30/01 until 0930 1/2, and even some light snow showers, one as I type. Yes an unusual winter so far. It will be a really interesting post match analysis in a few weeks if this continues to be the case. Much to consider....the strength of yet another SSW, curious MJO behaviour, Nino like momentum conditions in what looks a very neutral profile etc etc. I don’t have an answer yet, and as you say - the forecast for February is in no way certain yet and hints may improve, but has been a most unusual winter season overall.
    15 points
  17. No more Winter is over posts please unless backed up by a proper analysis of the models and bear in mind also that this is the cold hunt thread.
    15 points
  18. @Blitzen and her JinxMaster 4000, the only thing it's blown is a fuse. Sorry, but your snowblower is a NW legend. A few bitter pics, bitter temps and I am bitter that the bank of cloud is dropping my snow in another country.
    15 points
  19. What a night and day! Well worth the winter wait!! who’d have thought an Atlantic low would bring all of this right down to the south coast! As rare as rocking horse droppings!!
    14 points
  20. 25, yes 25cm of even laying snow and it's still chucking it down.....I feel a shaky exclamation coming on....WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    14 points
  21. You know when all forecasts predict a rainy front to clear early in the day but it lingers for hours and makes a horrible wet/dampday. Well it’s happening now, with a snowy front ??!
    14 points
  22. and still moderate snow haha although smaller flakes now 25cm level in the garden and 29cm ? on top the wheel barrow out of the wind what an amazing event who said we shouldn’t expect much snow in the glorious south west ?
    13 points
  23. Went for a wee drive along the back road from Muthill towards Braco and then over the hill road back to Comrie and took some snaps. Belter of a day. Temp rocketing up now: -2.8C.
    13 points
  24. Just mention the 06Z GFS seems to strengthen the front once again with heavy snow developing this afternoon. I am yet to see a single snowflake this winter but pleased for those who have seen snowfall.
    13 points
  25. Sorry HC, avert yer eyes ... just started heavy as we left the house and it’s currently tasty on the drive to Inverness
    13 points
  26. Ha, the daft old bint isn't laughing now!.....10cm+ and still chucking it down...lol
    13 points
  27. Whoever called it being good for Swindon was right on the money. Can’t find a ruler to measure...
    13 points
  28. I see that last nights-15.4C at Braemar was Scotland’s colder temp since Dec 2010 and the UKs since 2012 (there was a -15.6C in EST Anglia in 2012). In Glenlyon it got down to -12C. Here are a couple of photos posted from there this morning looking beautiful.
    12 points
  29. I’m not very good at forecasting, but this is my prediction for today.
    12 points
  30. Hello. Just popping in from the Midlands thread to say: good for you guys! ? It is actually cheering me up a lot reading this. Yes, it's very frustrating for it to be totally dry here in north Worcs when nearly every forecast had me in the sweet spot (Worcester seems about the N boundary) but it's so good to see many of you in the SW finally get a really big fall. If anyone here ever looked enviously at the Midlands in Dec 2017 when we had the huge fall and wondered what it was like... well, it was like this! Enjoy! ?
    12 points
  31. I don't half post a load of old cobblers....lol....shows how little I really know about the weather....lol to sum up the current snow in footballing terms... Moscow, Vladivostok, Antarctica, The North Pole, Sweden, Norway, The Midlands Regional thread, Shaky.......your boys just took one hell of a beating!......I'll fetch me coat
    12 points
  32. Cold as f00k Hee haw snaw Pram is empty That is the forecast from Lunarty
    12 points
  33. Abysmal continuity from the ECM which is all over the place in its later output . The GFS also joining the clueless club ! However at least they’ve both picked solutions this morning that are better than last night. I can cope with clueless and chopping and changing if we eventually land on the cold solution !
    12 points
  34. Loch Doine, Balquhidder, Thursday 31 January 2019. Calm, windless -7°.
    12 points
  35. Ok I’ve checked UKMO GFS ECM So here goes
    11 points
  36. Fantastic 10/10 4 sarcasm...
    11 points
  37. Freezing fog in Motherwell has left every tree looking white...
    11 points
  38. Not usually one to call "winter is over" but I feel like that's probably largely it, now. Very little support on any model for proper cold, EC46 has largely backed away from the idea though that model has been about as useful as a kettle in forecasting the weather this winter. Next week looks largely Atlantic dominated and those patterns can typically last a two weeks or more. It's been a fun one, an incredibly frustrating one but that's what keeps us coming back, I suppose!
    11 points
  39. 2 snowmen built, the smaller one by our very happy 2 and a half year old boy! Remarkable to have this on the back of last year! Cyclical weather? Rather like February 2009 which was quickly followed by December 2009 and December 2010. Now cuddled up watching The Snowman which thank goodness we recorded and didn’t delete!
    11 points
  40. No, I didn't! - I've still got it. It's covered in spider's webs, but I've still got it! Ravelin is right though, I did buy it in 2010 and it's been doing the rounds on here for 9 bloody years! If we ever get snowed in, I PROMISE I will post a picture of me using it with middle finger clearly visible!
    11 points
  41. There's too much dumbing down these days. When I was younger the weather forecasts on TV were much more technical but didn't try to go into micro detail for a small area of land. You were told the general weather type for your part of the country, shown synoptic charts, told about the jet stream etc on a daily basis. Nowadays everyone has access to forecasts on apps from numerous sources with no explanation of probabilistic forecasting and they just look at the app and say "Oh it's going to snow at 3pm" and then get arsey when it doesn't snow til 4.30pm, or sleets at 2.45pm! The other thing that gets me is when the news says "forecasters are predicting heavy snow/rain/storms" and everyone just goes around like headless chickens saying "Oh it's going to (enter weather type) today!" without any understanding or context. There's too much data and not enough common sense just as you say.
    11 points
  42. Just stuck my head out the back door and took this. Level measurement on the table is 13.5cm and it's still snowing, not forecast to stop anytime soon ?
    11 points
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