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The scandi ridge signals grow ever stronger as does the easterly on the 850 spreads ..........another frigid ext ended control looks likely

Best snow in years 2 1/2 inches before the met office issue a weather warning LOL a light cover at 7am started proper at 9 and still going, just about.

Best of luck yo you guys and girls in the South. Don't give up hope if it starts as rain. It rained here for about 2 hours now it's heavy snow. You should be good for a few cms also as it's very heavy ppn.

This is difficult... But anyway.. Im personaly loving this as my fascination with iso baric strucure /influence is in full play... We have @best a weak mlb-with forcing from the atmospheres obvious wanting of normality.. In a rapid nutshell..whether some are keen for gradients of forming/incoming LP-SYSTEMS and 4 want..in such as we are.. the forcing southwards- is almost certain.. Ive tryed hard to refrain from these notiins 4 accused of southerly 'bias'..but the truth is geostrophic winds will ONLY follow 1-format (ultimately)..and we are in a near perfect position 4 ref!.. Contour/isobars..are a sperate show.. And especialy on a microscale.. Anyway.. with a feabile mlb..and downward forces..(as atm).. Systems aiming 4 the uk..are hit and fall!!.. And will bounce- by way of nature on a southerly track... Its the middle leading- that needs scope!! However interstingly thurs/fri..could be a rare split incur...and of miniscule system part...on the gradient scale...and with overheads...A LOT BETTER than this eve.. A massive event..could show its hand 'snow-wise'.. On a large scale situ ..4 mass uk.. Although again...no bias...but southerly tracking should be both noted/excepted.. And should that intail..god bless those areas.. BURIED!!..

Shaky's front garden:

GFS 18z illustrating perfectly what I think is now the direction of travel, as the northern blocking starts to come closer to the UK, so also does a slug of extremely cold air, now I've seen it on the models I get a feel for the possibility that the Met Office have been alluding to. Pub run T138: White finger, does it have our name on it? Watch this thread, come on guys, one last ride on the roller coaster, one more shot at the Jackpot?

Pink to the left of me Green to the right Here I am Stuck in the middle with blue

Plenty more drama mate. I know some may call it hopecasting but I remain convinced we could see a sudden shift from a mild, flat, zonal outlook to a cold/Very cold E,ly. All of which developing at +144 to +168 and not +300plus. I spotted this a couple of days ago and believe it remains possible.

Morning all! Woke up and instantly checked the snow charts for this evening on 10 models - and they all completely disagreed with each other! Have a great day and hope you see snow

Me forcing my family members to look at the snow

Guessing nobody even bothered watching the Video posted yesterday then. I did say that between 4-7pm this thread would be dominated with people gfuqhgfpjhing about rain when thats what was exactly what was expected to happen before the undercut came in Guessing that was the best forecast of the week

The snow has arrived here on Barra today it's still mainly on the hills with a light dusting at lower levels. These are photos I took this afternoon. In the last hour, it's started snowing again.

Another exhausting day of "what about my area?" and "It's corrected north/south"...not to mention Shaky's infuriating use of exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!! C'mon guys, give the mods a break. If you can't read the models yourselves, just read the thoughts of those that can and work it out from there.

I am sticking with my earlier thoughts with regards to the medium range. Next week is far from resolved and still believe what tonights GEM shows remains a possibility. Just add a very unpleasant atmosphere on here tonight from some members! I am very sceptical of these so called "Background signals". However my gripe is with this forecasting method rather than any members who use them and post their forecasts on here.

Well a tidy 1cm up here, which looks like it'll hang around cos it's been very murky since it fell and we're only at 0.7C. While it's nice to have sunshine after a snowfall I do like the moodiness that murk brings On the hill path there was this lovely imprint of where a red grouse took off. Again, murky up top....and for a while it looked like it might clear completely but after 40 mins standing around waiting I gave up .....but not before leaving something behind

Just a quick question. Do you and Shaky have a couple of ex wives further north than the Midlands??

Some great sleet potential next month

Oh and when I inadvertently startled that pair of red grouse....clearly I'd interrupted one of them giving the other a lesson on what the jetstream is doing.

One thing that really gets my goat up on here is the sheer amount of posters who see a bad run or 2, or there forecasts of snowmageddon not looking likely, simply say...... That's me finished, see you next year, that's winter over this year, told ya so, ec 46 going the wrong way, next it will be glosea, bla bla bla bla, last year it was beast coming to late, sun to high in sky, ice day impossible, for godsake its like watching repeat episodes of elderado,

As promised, some more detailed thoughts about why I have retrieved my towel, and am now fighting on into February and beyond if necessary! There was a fair bit of negativity and frustration on here yesterday, justified given the output, and with the time of year it is easy to get sucked into that. But that is not science, it's emotion! Consider the narrative around the SSW, forget the nonsense earlier about a possible front-loaded winter (mea-culpa!). But from ~15 Dec, it has been all about the SSW, and at that point it was scheduled for 26 Dec, with cold weather starting to make it's presence felt about 10 Jan. The SSW was about a week 'late' and things have been slower ever since, cold weather arriving first 22 Jan - but that is only 12 days late, actually. (It is irrelevant to this discussion that most of us have seen zero snow from any non-SSW related events earlier, we haven't but that can't be laid at the door of the stratosphere science.) In fact the whole thing has been late at every stage, whether that is judged by people's expectations in here, the op models, the Met Office 16-30 day updates, the ECM46 or seasonal models that we can see which have shown significant high lat blocking in our region in January. But I think the direction of travel is still correct. Looking at today's op runs in the 10+ day range, all sorts of options are there, many including high lat blocking, no consensus, but compared with a couple of weeks when such blocks were over the opposite side of the northern hemisphere, they appeared in Russia this week, and are now starting to show closer to home (e.g. GEM 12z, but there are others). Models struggling with the uncertainty...and will probably continue to do so for a while. Finally, the Met Office contingency planners 3 month forecast issued today - see appropriate thread for detail - uses text to describe likely cold and higher precipitation signals in February in particular that could come from a textbook on likely long term response from a SSW. Game's still on folks!

For those worrying about it raining and not getting any snow on the back edge, i've taken it upon myself to fix the radar for the whole region with blizzards affecting ALL! well not all, i had to put rain over london otherwise it wouldn't have been realistic

The forecast for the past two days "Rain will turn to snow" People on this forum WHY IS IT RAINING YOU SAID IT WOULD SNOW WAHH

Agree with this Rambo Some shockingly childish behaviour in here tonight, its the same when a bolt of lightning does not land in someones garden in the Summer when people have a go at a forecast. I would probably urge the people that do have a go in here to just not bother and just leave people to post up forecasts from the Beeb or their Iphones in future, then they can stand in front of a mirror and have a go at their phones instead of venting on here. Truly Pathetic!

Sorry, but this place used to be fun. Why are people digging at others who have a go at forecasting the weather (for free), when the reality is the weather will do what it wants. Gets on my wick that people these days are always looking for someone else to blame for anything! You either learn to read weather charts and make your own predictions, or just live with the fact that sometimes things dont always happen the way you want....and if you really must blame someone, blame the forecaster's who are paid for by most of us! Anyway, light drizzle here at the moment. Fingers crossed the snow band keeps increasing so us in the far East might get a cm lol

getting really fed up of those who give Shaky grief for nuances in thursday snow line.....if you zoom in on the UKMO, GFS, GFS(P) and ECM charts and look closely, it's patently obvious that the snowline moved from Shaky's front garden, to old Mrs Giles bungalow across the road!

Another? When was the first?

It's getting a little more interesting wrt the general pattern after the snow.The wedge of heights to the ne again at day 5.Both models showing trough disruption at the end of the week.We could well be seeing further sliders as the cold air remains stubbornly located over us, This trend would change the milder outlook for next week .I am hoping ECM goes this way as the later eps have been indicating Scandi.+ve hts for some days.

People moaning that the SSW will do diddly squat for our cold prospects, well, as mentioned above yesterday, the Siberian high appears to be a product of the SSW reversal down into the trop, and it certainly seems to be spreading its tentacles our way by day 10, though the Atlantic trough scuppering it reaching all the way on 06z. Could be some interesting medium range model watching coming up over next few days.

Hope everyone gets theirs. Had a great night with puppy in the snow. Kids too old for sledging now.

Well there was a little snow, but very definitely cosmetic only today in Glen Affric. In fact cosmetic is being kind. This one isn't even snowy or recent but I was rummaging through the archive earlier and found this Where's that swirl out west going, how's it going to develop and most importantly, will it bring me snow??

good luck ireland

My horse enjoying a bit of snow in Stewarton and a nice sky ☺ Radar looking good again

OK - but if we don't try and read the signals where does that leave us? Going nowhere fast. There are some who would prefer just to take the weather as it comes each day by looking out the window. Fair play to them - probably the most sane way of doing it!! But if we are going to have a weather forum where we discuss prospects for developing weather events then we better try and understand the signals or else we are totally wasting our time.

Seems to be petering-out now, in S.E.London. Have really enjoyed reading all of your reports. Let's hope this was just a small starter for the main course on Thursday or later, in February. Let's hope so!! Think I'll retire to my pit now. Night all. Regards, Tom.

Nice polar low homing in on Scotland ! Rare as hens teeth

Heavy snow 1.8c

Just back from a jog - wind was cutting through me like a hot knife through butter! Hee-haw on low ground here but glorious to my North. (Lots of peaks hidden in low cloud - Arrochar Alps look fantastic)

Good news this morning UKMO extended is back!

lucky you

story of my life, watching out the window of the bedroom instead of living room just in case the extra 2 meters of elevation helps

Must admit am surprised at all these rain reports I mean its not as if this was expected was it

Croydon Council are on full snow alert for tonight & Thursday. All teams have been briefed and prepared.

Atlantic ingression seems to falter quite early on 06z GFS, early next week, with trough disruption Mon-Tues, and cold -5C and below air hanging around, so when Atlantic fronts come in, they could bring some snow, chiefly northern areas as per GFS. Some very cold air lurking to the NE, so if we do get pressure to rise to the N and NE, which it increasingly looks like with time, as the Atlantic troughing wanes, then it could be fun and games 2nd half of Feb maybe.

And you wonder why people get confused, one further south one further north, all on the same chart. Brilliant

Don’t think anyone has posted FI from GFS. ? Re Thursday Aperge looks great for almost everyone !

Pages of rubbish which should be in the regionals......Model wise........ ECM 120, that arctic high nudging south into Scandinavia a real tease, frigid uppers on it's eastern flank being drawn south westwards...ironically it's Thursdays low which halts it's track! Note how the low which is giving so much excitement this Thursday sits over Finland and stops the high in it's tracks...ironic!

Wife just came in to the room and closed the curtains blocking my view of the local lampost . How Dare She , suffice to say the Curtains are again open.

So the ‘wear a black jumper and go in the garden’ test showed there was sleet in the rain here. Just a shame the neighbour looked out the window just as I was staring intently at my arm. The things we do when we’re addicted to all things snow

Kirkcaldy snow shield fully operational 2.6 / 1.6 C good to see the likes of @Blitzen @Benvironment @Snowlover2 getting in on the snowy action (and all of you lot further west too of course) @ghoneym what's it like along in costa del Methil same as here id suspect Mother nature if you are reading this me and my fellow easterners who have yet to see snow would like an easterly with heavy snow showers please so if you could get in touch with the beast from the east and arrange this ASAP that would be greatly appreciated - thanks hen still looks like there are plenty of troughs which will help the showers keep going @bigsnow unsure about the polar low , does appear to be a difference in the appearance of the clouds to the NW of Scotland on the sat image so possible some sort of rotation / low but hard to tell https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual , GFS had it in Scotland by this time xc weather doesn't make much of it and only has some lower pressure by tomorrow morning fax charts seem to suggest there could be some fronts associated with it (possibly only affecting very far north of Scotland) hard to work out what is going on - best guess keep an eye on the radar / sat images for signs of a more organised area of precip that shows signs of rotating as opposed to moving west > east as that could be a signal of a low, looks like one of those troughs could be pepping up the shower activity again in the west ATM