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Showing most liked content on 29/01/19 in all areas

  1. 22 likes
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    Guessing nobody even bothered watching the Video posted yesterday then. I did say that between 4-7pm this thread would be dominated with people gfuqhgfpjhing about rain when thats what was exactly what was expected to happen before the undercut came in Guessing that was the best forecast of the week
  3. 18 likes
    Oh and when I inadvertently startled that pair of red grouse....clearly I'd interrupted one of them giving the other a lesson on what the jetstream is doing.
  4. 17 likes
    Some great sleet potential next month
  5. 16 likes
    The forecast for the past two days "Rain will turn to snow" People on this forum WHY IS IT RAINING YOU SAID IT WOULD SNOW WAHH
  6. 15 likes
    My horse enjoying a bit of snow in Stewarton and a nice sky ☺ Radar looking good again
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    Good to see these reports of snow guys! Also, just to say, the ECM ensembles are broadly very good for our area on Thursday. About 85% of the models have 2-3 inches over our area, a couple have a higher jackpot, and only a few have the old GFS solution of going too far north.
  9. 11 likes
    Clearly all the seasonal models have been a bust- there is absolutely no doubting that- Canadian PV has destroyed any hope of northern blocking winter 2018/2019, Feb may deliver but its looking unlikely IMHO, FWIW i hope my net weather friends in the midlands/wales and the SE get some good action thurs.. Its not a moan BTW, its just the reality, iv'e kind of given up hope if i'm honest- yet again a north westerly provides about an inch of slush at 200 m in the north west..as useful as a barbers shop on the steps of the guillotine .. I do long for an easterly!
  10. 11 likes
    You must be joking right? A cold winter easterly may always be in the pipeline if we get a decent Scandi high, but putting hopes in brexit? Now that really is chasing unicorns... saying its good is like saying we will get an easterly in 12 hours time when all the models show zonal SW'lies. Anyhow the 06z swingometers are mixed but represent an improvement on the 00z set (highlighting why runs in isolation shouldn't be focused on but instead more persistent patterns). It's still highly uncertain how early next week will pan out, at this early stage I would say an anticyclonic pattern is more likely with the high to our far NE starting to make its presence felt. This is hugely uncertain though as highlighted by the swingometers. I wouldn't mind another slider with P2 . For later on the picture is also highly uncertain, just about anything could happen with a large variety of options on the 06z GFS ens. P5 gets a great cold spell going later on. The global temperature anomalies tell quite a story too, almost everywhere at 60N below average! If only that serious Eurasian cold could move west heh heh... Overall I'd say any chance of a cold spell around 48:52, there certainly isn't a will of the weather gods for a mild spell at the moment. Lets hope we get a strong and stable high pressure to our north!
  11. 10 likes
    Dublin, always found Dublin a good place to get hammered
  12. 10 likes
    Not exactly buried but it's the most we've had so far this winter and it's still falling.
  13. 10 likes
    So the rain and sleet fest is upon us followed by a day of 6c for Wednesday so whatever does settle (if anything) will melt as soon as the sun rises will then be followed by transient snow event (with the same results) on Thursday to then be followed by a couple of weeks of slightly below to average temperatures.
  14. 9 likes
    We now have settling snow here in Lee, S.E.London. Regards, Tom.
  15. 8 likes
    Irish sea is coming alive to our west, thanks to the change in wind direction, my goat juices are flowing.
  16. 8 likes
    Massive blobs moving into Western Scotland (Where I am) Ireland and N.I. How do you ladies and gents have nothing currently? Always amazes me that North West England does not fare well in a setup that really you would think...should deliver the goods! Anyways onwards and upwards - hope you all join in the fun over the next couple/few hours. Have a good one folks!
  17. 8 likes
    add me, @Hawesy @ghoneym to the list too and @LomondSnowstorm unless he has had some snow wherever he is - come back to us you legend! @Hairy Celt could be in the firing line for some snaw thanks to that front lingering up north
  18. 8 likes
    Can I have my towel back, please? Yesterday I have to say I was a bit frustrated by the model output longer term, will post in more detail later, but suffice to say I have found the longer range model output today and other signals much more positive today for significant cold in February. Meanwhile Thursday looks good for midlands and south, If ECM follows the other models then I think the GFS solution can be given a very low probability. Which won't suit everyone, but that's for the regional threads.
  19. 8 likes
    Jeez , are you on shakys ignore list? Dont let him see that post ..:-)
  20. 7 likes
    People really need to stop using the ultra low res GFS PPN charts, they show the PPN far more North than the high resolution charts do.. FYI cropping into the UK from a low res chart doesn't make it hi-res..
  21. 7 likes
    With a name like yours no wonder your depressed
  22. 7 likes
    A tad bizzare..(your post).. both classic wave patterns emerging in delayed responce-to strat/trop happenings.. The mods were bound to have a massive jump to what is likely to become..ie mirror opposite.. And now highly likely to note all forcings.. And feb then sets up a both our most notable winter month... And 1 that many have craved!!.. And this 6z run could look very tame in just a short time!
  23. 7 likes
    The thing people have got to remember is that there is no 'physics' reason why we couldn't see an equally dramatic change that we saw with regards to the shift from easterly to the set-up originally forecasted (though the truth ended up slightly closer to the easterly than expected!)
  24. 7 likes
    I posted up a photo of my daughter's snow covered car, yesterday and here's a few of the young lady, herself. Hayley my daughter, is on the left with my son Antony, next to her. Their English Cousin, next to them and the other three, are their Italian Cousins. Hayley and Antony, outside Naples Airport. Finally, Antony and Hayley either side of their friend at the V Festival in Chelmsford, I believe. So Lassie, there's your Racing Competition "Nemesis" and all you Arsenal fans out there, fellow Gooners!! But for all you Tottenham fans (Pete, Hotspur and Kentspur), you can throw plastic darts at them, if you like!! Regards, Tom.
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    Really is interesting the areas North of the Estuary with that wedge of warmer dewpoints and solid rain, the colder undercutting has no doubt gone through with the reports of snow now South of the Thames further East into Kent. Here is hoping Thursday's does not suffer the same fate North of the warmer Estuary. Am surprised about Chelmsford still having rain though as thats fully 14 miles NW of the Estuary
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    Great video going into plenty of interesting detail about today and Thursday. Today/tonight looks ok with elevation, but I’ll be surprised to see much, if any settling snow around Heathrow (hopefully I’m wrong). Thursday could be very different, if the UKMO model output is correct then milder air to the S&W won’t reach us, keeping the SE cold and snowy throughout. Fingers crossed!
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    Brilliant high res. MODIS image at 1130 (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)
  32. 6 likes
    True enough. It's a fallacy to say that the SSW has not affected out weather: it has, just not in the way that some of us were forecasting and others were hoping. We head into to February with a weak PV at a time when we would normally start to see more blocked scenarios increase in likelihood anyway. As @TEITSsays, there's no reason why we cannot see a swing to cold in the medium range, especially given we don't have a very organised PV centered over the Arctic. This is not to say that one run or another will verify and we will see widespread freezing weather because of it; but, the setup does not seem to favour a long term (i.e. 10 days plus) pattern of mild W to SW flow. We may end up with some more slider scenarios, or we may end up with a more prolonged cold spell, but I do not think that we are looking at a prolonged above average period of weather before the end of winter. I would be surprised if the upcoming snow this week is the last we see before next winter.
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    ECM 72 snow is from london ( & a smidge further NE ) across to wales & the south midlands Southern Ireland is the sweet spot-
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    BBC weather just posted this on twitter for Thursday, upgrading the 1-3cm from earlier forecasts in the SE to 1-5cm already.
  38. 5 likes
    Ive not posted in ages or even been on the forum and it hasnt changed in years!! What will be will be when it comes to weather.....
  39. 5 likes
    The ironic thing is, there’s no block to the east to stop the system in its track, which makes the modelling of the low all the worst. After what looked like a promising week for most of england and the north, the much maligned south are on the naughty step for stealing ALL of our snow.
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    Aw you counted. Yes long lost brothers. He has half of an exclamation mark shaped necklace, I have the other.
  42. 5 likes
    500 MB temperatures are a good measure of how vigorous convection is. At the moment these are steady around -34°C. After 6 pm they start to drop in earnest, and by 9 pm they reach -39°C. I expect cells to start exploding after 6 PM.
  43. 5 likes
    Indeed mate. Remember back in Feb 2005 when at one stage the models were predicting the dreaded Euro HP which actually reversed into a whooping Greenland HP. Normally we always expect downgrades when it comes to cold spells but sometimes the reverse happens and as you say there is no meterological reason why this cannot happen. I can see why the Met O have continued with their extended outlook.
  44. 5 likes
    What???? - any range belongs in here, as long as its not mild ramps deliberately designed to wind cold fans up.
  45. 5 likes
    Definitely, I think it’s half hope casting, half what the actual charts are showing in the mod thread. They are seeing it as a southern event but it looks like midlands will do best with either side of them up for grabs. Personally I reckon the front will reach south North Yorkshire before going off east. But as usual I will wait and see what met say and warning areas. Look out for more northern correction and less southern incorrection
  46. 4 likes
    I would 100% . Not that we will ever get extreme cold like that .
  47. 4 likes
    Omg. It's coming down thick with snow flakes the size of fifty pence pieces!!!!!! Can't see beyond 10 metres. Definitely worth all the hype and waiting guys..... Damn I took one too many fluxotines. Sorry gang, its not snowing at all
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    January update February to April Temperature summary For February and February-March-April as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures. The likelihood of impacts from cold weather is greater than normal, particularly earlier in the 3-month period. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for February-March-April will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 25%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-fma-v1.pdf Precipitation summary For February and February-March-April as a whole, above-average precipitation is more probable than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the driest of our five categories is 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-fma-v1.pdf
  50. 4 likes
    Hi All , Always been a reader and a very minimal poster ! based in Borough Green north downs way so some hoping I'll get to see some of that snow this week . Still learning everything and appreciate everyone's efforts. Alex
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