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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars for the 500-1000 chart. Also the same times for the 850-1000. Slight differences but why the posts that have phrases like’game over’ and such? These do not help new folk understand what is happening. I honestly cannot see that, in the time scale I mention, there is much that is markedly different on the two runs. If you are commenting beyond T+120-144, and in this fairly volatile state of the northern atmosphere perhaps even near T+00 then you MUST compare like with like. It is way too far ahead to use the argument that the run has the most up to date data and therefore must be more accurate. It does not hold, believe me, sorry to be a bit dogmatic but 20+ years of forecasting makes me feel you may just bear with me over that. Come on I posted this morning about the overall upper air signals, yes the run to run of the models may well vary but the cold is here for 2 weeks possibly longer. To be sure of what values in each of our back gardens or even more so will it snow/when/how much then be realistic. Models 2x or 4x daily will NOT be accurate for temperature before about T+72 and for ppn of whatever type before T+48 and sometimes not even T+12. If you can accept these restrictions life on here can be enjoyable and useful for learning for us all with no loss of enjoyment. Shall we try this for 24 hours or so.

Leaked express headline for tomorrow. #sorrynotsorry

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are means so do tend to be less up/down compared to the synoptic 6 or 12 hourly outputs. Indeed I would suggest it might be a better idea to simply look at the synoptic 500 mb chart run to run or better still to compare like runs, you may have heard that somewhere else before! Anyway The ECMWF-GFS this morning Not surprisingly they are not that different to what they have predicted over the past 4 or 5 days, see below Atlantic ridging towards Greenland and EC still with GFS now showing a building of ridging over Scandinavia with an extension west towards Greenland. Something that the occasional run on the 6 hours outputs has suggested. Marked troughing on both remains into Europe. The configuration on these two shows lower contour heights on EC compared to GFS. However on both the upper flow shows the cold will persist over the next 6-10 days. Okay it may wax and wane but no signal showing for any mild air for the UK. So what about NOAA and it has a chart that covers 8-14 days out. The 6-10 last evening, largely between the UK and Scandinavia well north with the flow dropping into the European trough. About a week ago the contour flow had the slightest hint of this. The actual +ve height anomaly is show away from any of this, just off the American coast. With such a meridional flow obviously the contour heights over the UK area are higher than the other two. This has little effect ob surface temperatures, indeed if there is any surface ridging in between weather systems might create lower values at the surface. To me the strong flow out of America does leave a question mark for day to day. Will any deepening systems move NE or SE once into the eastern Atlantic? With the deep trough east of the UK one would expect them to steer SE or ESE, which may provide some excitement if they get close to the UK. Looking at their 8-14 day chart and perhaps the most interesting change from the 6-10 is the increase in –ve heights over NW Europe. Again little signal for any mild air. That is unless we get a flow not easterly but SE/or worse SSE with air originating from the Med. Nothing to be concerned about in the next 6-10 days but a possibility beyond that. So, overall the cold will continue, the synoptic models will come and go so to speak on its depth and ideas on where/when any ppn will occur. Up to 24 hours out forget what the models may predict, they are right a few times at longer time scales but not often. Just think back to summer set ups and how often they get the rainfall correct? In winter there are another 8 or so additional variables to get right. Hope this summary helps calm the nerves a little. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

JMA 192 (Am I on everybodies ignore?)

Is there really any need for the oneupmanship in here, it's not a competition.

The mighty ICON slayed by the UKMO.. @The Eagle has landed

One last post from me- Since 2012 I have stuck with the UKMO model as its prone to least volatility- Add to that in 2013 & 'most' slider scenarios it had a grip on proceedings whilst GFS mainly but ECM also swung around - At 96-120 I can count on my fingers & thumbs the amount of times UKMOs got it wrong, however ECM op 96-144 has been countless times both in to much blocking & also to much zonality bias - IE large swings- My form horse is the UKMO with others falling into line this eve... A 3/4 way house to the amplified solution & the energy will split in the atlantic with the shortwave spoiler heading towards Portugal..

Morning Cold-Chasers.. Before we kick off another fraught day in here, please remember that the models do not dictate the weather, and it is pointless picking holes and overanalysing and getting yourself in a tizz over computer generated statistical simulations. It really isn’t! I know everyone is dying for a day off work BUT.. Every single cold event has its wobbles. Unfortunately with the wobbles seem to come unhelpful posts- and for anyone that saw my post last night which is probably 10000 pages back, I talked about one-upmanship. So once again-there are no prizes for being the person who declared that this would be a bust already. If you like the feeling of being right and dwelling jn the misery of others, this isn’t the place for you. The tone of some of the ‘I told you so’ posts creeping in already is really unpleasant and unnecessary. This isn’t what this forum is about and is not in the spirit of things at all. If you wouldn’t say it to someone in the pub for fear of losing some teeth, it’s probably best not typed out and posted. I appreciate that these scenarios cause emotions to run high but it’s not okay to turn on one another. It’s also not very cool to mudtrack into twitter - going off and complaining about this forum and it’s posters on a public platform replying to senior Meteorologists just makes you look like a child. If you have an issue, please report it to the team. Finally any obviously trolling or wind up posts will be removed and you’ll find yourself unable to post for a bit. PLEASE be nice to each other. Otherwise might be best turn your screen off and enjoy some cold air- it’s not like it was in December!

Morning all, we were promised the finest champagne by ECMWF and instead they end up giving us Babycham! Although I think we could be drifting away from bitterly cold snowy northeasterly now, don't think the 00z EC det. is necessarily correct with the Atlantic resurgence to the NW after mid-week trough disruption and all the other models will fall in line. I think the models are struggling with the emergence of an arctic high off eastern Greenland next week, probably a trop response to the easterlies downwelling from the lower strat. 00z UKMO has the high dropping down to Scandinavia, EC did last few days, but this morning EC is drifitng the high towards the Barents Sea instead - which doesn't block the Atlantic resurgence from the west like the UKMO solution. UKMO T+144 EC T+144 So, although a big upset from EC this morning, don't expect it to be right, even at this short range, because of that arctic high.

So, with the change in output today, expectations of a major cold spell will be tempered somewhat. However, whilst we still have a disrupted trop vortex alongside the lower strat downwell, with a NW to SE trending jet stream and Europe trough, then the closed door can quite easily open wide again, and it would be no surprise if it did.

Snow chances for most parts into next Tuesday, With a bitting wind chill. Winter is here.

A crumb of hope. The ECM was discarded from the short term diagnostic discussion for the west USA for the period upto the 22 January . The preferred solution was a combination of this mornings UKMO/GFS and NAM. How much that impacts events later still uncertain .

That's called calling the result before the end of the game. Probably best to wait until the winter is over before wanting a post-mortem, no?

.. No worries john. I type very quickly, and don't @ times keep my sentence stacks in order. Thats just me. Apologies-for your non decipher. 'Perhaps i'll go slow mo'.

Newbies take note. It’s at times like this you really get to see the substance of certain contributors on here. Theres a big difference between stating the obvious, which is that the pendulum has no doubt swung away from a productive Easterly next week and writing off the rest of the month (nearly 2 weeks away, good grief) in a churlish fit of frustration. For that productive Easterly of next week, my initial 65/35, which moved to 70/30 on Thursday, has dropped, rather dramatically, to a 40/60 this morning. But there is time for a flip back over the next 24 hours. And more importantly, all options on the table after that. Also, I posted a week ago that it was going to get very fraught and hairy in here as the rollercoaster gathered pace. If you can’t handle the heat (bad choice of words), step away from the kitchen...

I think I agree with that. Given that patterns tend to ebb and flow a bit (I’m sure a physicist somewhere could explain the process through waves...but for a numptly like me I just observe...) it seems highly likely that the long wave pattern we are moving into will prompt another attempt at the NW block very soon. I don’t think the old model thread covered itself in glory today. Disappointing runs for sure - but if you remove the op run hype of the previous day solid predictions from technical posters of the pattern for the end of the week were conspicuous by their absence, and the reason was simple: nothing from Wednesday onwards ever looked nailed on. I’m not sure why people hang on individual runs so much and lose sight of forcings and hemispheric pattern....but it has been the case all along that the forcings of the SSW and Pacific have been clear to see, but equally clearly timings have been an issue. Can interested amateurs hope to get timings right when even the Met, with their supercomputer and dedicated professional staff, have also struggled this season....with the approach of colder conditions consistently put back? I think not. The droppng of the trough into Europe midweek was the only feature of the pattern change that was “easy” (comparatively) to spot at around the 192 range but the specific direction of travel after that has been hazy. However let’s be clear. Firstly, as I tried to show last night, models all have their frailties and ECM is not king all of the time. On that basis take the full suite we have available and never right any off entirely. Taking next week as the focus there remains a huge amount of uncertainty as to what happens once heights over Europe have lowered, and while a raging easterly now looks unlikely for Thurs/Friday this doesn’t mean an easterly is out the question soon after. Secondly - and related to this - ensembles are still good, and if you cycle back to the wise words of John H earlier today the prognosis remains good. Thirdly the drivers that a few people today have tried to knock (and if we’d think we can’t improve our weather understanding then why are we here....hence such posts seem extremely odd to me) are still here and approaching peak impact. If an easterly is lost for Thurs/Fri then we move on to the next opportunity, somewhat disappointed but still optimistic given those drivers. And lastly - some people may get a good snow event on Tues/Weds....an event we were able to signpost at around a week and should have people pleased!!! Sitting in the SW I’m a bit envious of those in the midlands and north who may cash in....good luck to you all. Finally - good points have been made today about probability. Has to be true. We are never dealing in certainties when looking at forecasting beyond 72 hours ( and often at considerably less....) and it is worth reflecting on this. Probability means that outside chances can happen. And huge favourites don’t always come out on top. Reflect on that. As one fellow Scottish Rugby fan said earlier - bloody good job too. If the outlier and the underdog was automatically doomed the world would be an extremely dull place. So as we are all weather enthusiasts in here, perhaps we should cling to the understanding that hunting snow is a long odds game in the UK and be comfortable with that, or go find another hobby.

The issue is the ?? storm creating amplification in the jet. With the models in the US still adjusting the path of the storm early. Also the downwelling of the SSW hasn't actually reached the troposphere yet (forecast still for early next week) - so big volatility with the NWP outputs. NOTE: Initialisation errors are high at the moment Beyond around five days the UKMET don't rely on the operational output and they don't react (overreact) to every computer run. The ensemble outputs have been consistent in showing predominantly colder weather: the forecasts reflect the strong likelihood of cold weather with the risk of some very cold weather, in line with the ensembles that we can see. Under 'normal' circumstances this ENS suite would have this place in meltdown! Well worn, I know it's hard when you're young and enthusiastic ---- but be patient.....

If you are unable to support your one liner or cannot keep your emotions in check I really suggest you head into banter to moan or even better just step back from the models for a couple of hours. Writing off the winter in January is totally ridiculous. Let’s just nip that in the bud.

ICON chasing down the UKMO @102

It’s ‘dire’ if we cant get the snow then at least let’s get the grammar right .........

Very rarely post in here but please remember that all the models will be highly volatile (even more so than normal) as they come to terms with the effects of the SSW. Yesterday we were looking at very snowy, brutally cold charts from the GFS, today we are looking at less cold but still cold, still quite snowy charts on GFS. ECM is milder, UKMO is colder - complete disagreement - and people are posting things like "winter over". What is to say we won't be back to brutal cold on later runs? Models simply cannot get a grip on exactly where weather systems will fall in 5 days/10 days time. The storm over the USA is now taking shape across the southern Midwest and this will play a part in just how cold we get in the UK. Using the 00z ensemble chart below for my location shows a wide spread of temperatures in a weeks time, but most are close to or below freezing at ground level until the end of the run. Hardly winters over.

Yet another quite large untruth. I am in the process of trying to type a post to attempt to get some sense back into this thread, bear with me please. Your post is 'almost' tor for parts of the far S and SW but something of an exaggeration elsewhere for Scotland, Like I said bear with me and I'll come back with my view of the run compared to the 06Z. Remember also you are 168h down the line. Does this 12 compare to that from yesterday?

Guess what folks? Ext EPS solid as ever and if anything trending colder! (Some may cry "jam tomorrow" but the medium range outlook looks tasty).

It’s defini better than the 0Z chart. Happier with a stronger euro trough, that’s holding the Atlantic ridge up a bit more.

I’m still not sure we can be confident that any of the models will be more likely than others to have the right way forward with the synoptic evolution mid-late next week week by the end of today. There seems to be a great deal of uncertainty still over the track and depth of the winter storm over the eastern USA this weekend as it moves NE out of NE USA toward Greenland, combine this with uncertainty of the degree of speed and spatial extent of trough disruption over NE Atlantic / UK / North Sea mid-week (something models often struggle with at close range) and also how the arctic high moving off eastern Greenland interacts with the amplifying Azores high. I’m not saying that in all this uncertainty that the models will flip back to a bitterly cold easterly or northeasterly later next week, but by no means is the resurgence of the Atlantic westerlies a done deal either. Maybe wait until tomorrow’s runs to see if the Fat Lady has sung. We await the 12z EC with angst though.

The effects of the SSW are forecast to downwell at last early next week, we are not there yet, and I suspect the models are having a wobble at the moment trying to fathom out the effects - this is quite to be expected, as it won't be clear until the effects manifest. With this in mind, I suspect much flipping and flopping over the next 3 days, with various outputs showing the extreme ends of what could happen. GFS has a habit of sniffing out the long term direction far in fantasy land, ditch it within a more reliable medium term horizon, but then draw it back run to run just within the reliable - it did very well a week or two back showing northerly interludes as have occurred now.. so with this in mind I expect it will ditch the greenland height rises in next set of runs, but bring them back mid-late next week within the reliable timeframe i.e. 144 hrs - roughly last 2/3 days of January. The drivers will be the interaction of the azores and arctic high - and how robustly or not they link up.. the jetstream position should have the effect of enabling sharper amplification of the atlantic trough - a crucial ingredient for leading to the link up.

NetWX-MR still shows an Easterly Thursday next week.

UKMO 120 This will calm the nerves

This is the model output discussion thread for the whole of the UK and beyond. Go to the regional threads if you do not care what happens up in Scotland.

You should perhaps get a leason on/in thermodynamics..b4 jumping onto things!? The upper courses and force gages..are still of firm note.. And the means/supports although given a reasonable overview on ASSUMSTIONS-WILL DEVIATE and not correctly pick on the prop/downwelling responces...even @range-noted. I think its safe ....AND reasonable 2 say... Some will be rather shocked an absorbed..by middle nxt week.. Both a pattern match in model world (by then)..and indeed the occur @ living ground level... A definitive major wobble just now... But cross agree..for ..something akin to the mouth opening raws of late... Gaining.. And to reiterate... Its been laying on our laps.... Time to strike the kitten!!!!

Things could be A LOT WORSE!!! GRAPHS AWAITING!!

Full sun here all day, and down by Carrbridge, where we went for a short potter. Up towards the trees... then across to Sluggan Bridge where there was some of this in the river Back through more trees and then this across the Beauly Firth as we headed home A rather jolly day out!

Well we sat looking out at greyness until early afternoon and then decided to stop waiting for the cloud to break up and go for a walk anyway. Just as well, as we got to the high point of the road and the car park you could just see glimpses of blue sky looking directly up. We started the walk through the snow festooned forest and as we climbed it became apparent that if we got a bit higher we'd be out of what was an inversion. As we cleared the forest near the top, we also cleared the mist and the views were stunning. The photos I took really dont do it justice... Back at the house just 200m lower and we're back in the mist, just.

I must say I'm perplexed to see so much trouble with clearing that low SE into Europe given the jet profile at the time... historical 'stuck low' scenarios have been tied to having an insufficient jet down through Europe but on this occasion it's actually pretty strong. It's as if the low becomes entirely surface-based, more like a polar low but on a broader scale than usual. It'll be pretty ironic if that proves to be the derailment factor for the midweek easterly. I don't think it has much say in what happens Fri-Sat though; that comes down to how quickly the models start shoving the pattern toward one of height rises western N. Atlantic to mid-N. Atlantic, forcing the main trough to head toward Europe and potentially giving the Scandi High some trouble. I say potentially, because teleconnections still point strongly toward sustaining a diving jet into Europe rather than a flattening of the pattern, so the Scandi High really ought to have a good fighting chance. Looking at this and then considering what I just wrote, plus what we saw happen with the broad trough being sent diving in for this coming Tuesday, it's not hard to envision a much weaker, sharper (less west-east span) trough disrupting against the blocking high to our east instead of overrunning it, while ridging builds poleward across the N. Atlantic and, in time, becomes the new focal point of the HLB as the Scandi High retrogresses into it. The GFS 00z was a very good portrayal of that. The 06z could have been too if not for the huge trough transfer that I'm sceptical of for reasons already stated. Struggling to really explain the 00z ECM though. It sort of went for diving a new broad trough into Europe, but the old one raced off east all of a sudden with a transient ridge to our S instead, leaving it to the next trough to return low heights to Europe, but then that one dived all the way down to NW Africa and in any case the earlier trough had scooped out all the deep cold from east of us... hmm this reads more like a scripted UK snow-hunter's nightmare tale than a sensible model run! Okay, rant over Overall, I believe GFS & GEFS are showing us more realistic failure scenarios for next week's easterly incursion, but that even so, they're no more probable than the success scenarios.

Not had a chance to post the last couple of days due to bits of business that had to be sorted out, including funnily enough a couple of legal documents that have to be signed in a town in NW Italy at over 400m asl next Thursday. Heavy snow was showing up for this area for Wednesday and Thursday of next week and I was worried that the the solicitor would not be around in his offices if there's 2 or 3 foot of snow or that the elderly signatories would end up stuck in a mountain snow drift, I thought just my luck, hardly any snow south of the Alps and it has to bucket down next week. (Its snowed lots in Central/Southern Italy though of course). But out of the blue hardly any snowfall at all is showing this morning for Northern Italy so I thought I'd take a look at the ensembles. London, no outlier there. Lugano (Italian/Swiss border), the operational is a clear outlier. Florence. North/Central Italy.Massive outlier. So It seems to me that the GFS operational has this Low pressure sinking south way, way too quickly, in view of this I expect everything to be further north again on the 12z runs. I'm not expecting the crazy beast from the east charts for next week, although you never know, but am thinking that UKMO is likely to be on the money, or maybe a UKNO/GFS blend. ECM has the low even further south, so looking well over done to me, should be some big changes coming up on the 12z runs, certainly less progressive in my opinion. Best of the best this morning is the NAVGEM, poor model, but every model can have its day. The up and coming China model also looking great. So hopefully lots to look forward to still for coldies from Tuesday onwards. Anyway, let's wait and see what the 12z runs turn up before jumping to conclusions. I would still prefer that it didn't snow in Northern Italy next week mind, at the end of the day I want it all over here for us to enjoy!

for the current ECM/GFS charts to be right, then these charts would need to be spectacularly wrong. not impossible, but rather unlikely, its a game of odds and ill back these as being most likely .

One straw to clutch regarding the ECM this morning, perhaps the uncertainty over Brexit is causing data issues.. Unpalatable GFS runs recently were blamed by some on the U.S shutdown. Well, I tried

If only you wrote in English, sometimes you do so forgive me if writing is a problem.

I wouldn't be so quick to rule out our chances of easterly's / colder and potentially snowier weather I am still sticking a good majority of my faith in the ensemble NAEFS, due to how persistent this model has been with the signal for above average heights Atlantic / Greenland / Arctic / Scandi and if anything over the past few days the signal has grown / intensified 108h 180h 288h end of the run A bit of difference in the MJO forecasts but perhaps adding to some confusion for the models with it looking like we are entering phase 4 which is less favourable for colder conditions, a few hinting at possibly going toward phase 7 by the start of February which could help aid blocking but perhaps there is still some lag time with the MJO and also factoring in the strat event(s) and the USA storm it is no surprise the amount of changes / uncertainty with each run ATM. Some other charts showing why it is perhaps foolish to write the pattern of NW > SE lows and possible easterly's off so quickly Keep the faith folks plenty of time for some proper wintry conditions for the UK yet bearing in mind I didn't see any truly meaningful snow until the beast from the east last winter on 28th February (and I am yet to see any snow this winter)- Count Days 40 days 19 January 2019 - 28 February 2019 I would wager that we have a pretty good chance of many areas seeing snow by then and even March can deliver - aka March 2013 (not suggesting anything of that severity, just highlighting that there is plenty of time left remember my post from a few days ago where I showed how quickly things can change in favour of blocking / cold like Nov / Dec 2010 and Feb / March last year)

Well, if it's of any interest - GMET are still favouring the UKMO route with cold / v cold E / NE bias mid to end of next week. Ref: DECIDER

ECM ensembles for this Thursday: 2 days ago when I checked, it was about 80/20 in favour of some sort of easterly/northerly. This morning is about 40/60. That is a flip. Rather embarrassing for me as I've been staking my forecast on the consistency of these ensembles for days! What I think will happen now, what with the UKMO and GFS so different and with the easterly far from dead in the ensembles, is that we are likely to get a fudge. The middle ground will be a shorter easterly followed by a quick sinker. That looks most reasonable to me. It's rare at such short range for either model to be completely wrong. And maybe that would still allow a snow event later next week. But the weather will do what it wants, when it wants, and just occasionally make fools out of us.

Okay I know it is fantasy land, but look at this! 234 h on GFS (P) and almost the entire UK has snow. There is a tendency here for the jet to create an Atlantic blocking around Tuesday, causing that low from the NW to move SE across the country. This could lead to locally heavy snow in places. I know it has been mentioned that this will not lay but we can't be sure of this. Evaporative cooling in areas of high precipitation could cause the temperature to drop locally for a time, leading to minor accumulations. Once the Atlantic blocking takes hold around Tuesday and the low passes south east across the country, there is the chance that the jet re loads whilst also moving north on our western side creating an even more significant block. After this, who knows where but I have seen a few runs with the jet pulling south altogether leaving extraordinary opportunities of snow come the end of the week. This is far off yes, but the tendency is certainly there for this progression. Here at 216 h okay this is the GFS (P) and we are in some fantasy land now, I would not rule this progression out of the question. This creates significant snow accumulation for many. 23h as shown above, that is incredible snow event. I will also add that this scenario has been mentioned in the METO monthly outlook. They say for next weekend, sorry for mods off topic but this is relating to models, I know there is a separate thread for this but it is relevant for my explanation. "There is a small chance of a weather system approaching the northwest over the weekend, which could bring significant amounts of snow on meeting the cold air. However, this is still very uncertain and it is best to stay up to date with the latest forecast.". All in all an interesting time ahead. Wake up tomorrow and ECM is on board, I'd say we can be counting down the days for a memorable spell of weather. Tomorrow is very significant, lets see what it brings! Thank you for reading

After a lot of thought, we've decided to revisit the hunt for cold style thread, and this is it! In this thread, please feel free to discuss the model output with a cold slant, but should other weather types be showing in the output, discussing those is fine too. Thread Moderation The moderation in this thread will be on an impact basis, so if a post is likely to negatively impact the thread (by poisoning the atmosphere, creating lots of very off topic replies etc) then we'll moderate it. But for slightly off topic or bantery posts, we won't - so long as there is a general theme of the models running through the thread. This does mean that topics such as met office forecasts, tv forecasts, will it snow in my location type questions are still not allowed in this thread, as they are the types of things which will cause it to run off on a massive, non-model related tangent. Want a stricter, more focused model thread? As a sister-thread to this one, a focused, more in depth model thread is available. Please head to this thread for a slower paced, less bantery more strictly on-topic model discussion. Focused Model Discussion Cross-posting between this and the focused thread is allowed, and encouraged - so please feel free to post your thoughts, model run summaries and the like into both threads if you wish. We hope that these two threads offer the best of both worlds for everyone who want to follow and discuss the model output. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: GFS GFS FV3 (Para) GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere

I suspect that we are entering a rinse an repeat type scenario here. So probably we will see another slider followed by another easterly chance down the line - but will it stick?

Never apologise for being you mate your posts are quite frankly amazing and just what this thread needs. they are always accurate ( sometimes opinionated) but very to the point and informative for newbies. you write as you think. everyone has a handle. if that’s how you view the models then crack on bruv

-8 for half the country and no idea of dewpoints, your post is rather harsh mate.

The thing is Crewe that your missing the point. Most of us on here don,t expect months of snowy Armageddon every winter. Most of us would be happy with two weeks of cold/snowy weather and that would make our winter, ano matter how less than brilliant the charts might look today that is still entirely possible and given the continued background signals actually quite likely.

Is the output terrible ? No but after seeing some great charts these mostly have bitten the dust and we’re left trying to salvage something from the wreckage of another easterly fiasco . Expectation management is probably the real problem. There are some snow chances but the easterly signal has weakened . That’s where we’re at . So that’s our baseline . Let’s see if we can squeeze out just a bit more . There’s still a chance there’s been some over reaction by the models to a new signal. Lets see what the models do this evening , still a chance we could see some better changes .

Hi guys, I'm Jack. I've been stalking these forums for maybe 2 years now and I finally thought I'd register and bless you all with my presence. Praying for the GFS later on today, it all looked and felt so promising yesterday, hope the ECM sorts itself out on its next run. What time does the 6z and 12z update? Thanks guys

^^ If we back the pattern west then yes colder by all means , however its a delicate balance - cold > dry or slightly less cold with snow- Anyway the GFs at 264 is now panning out in the top 15 runs of all time with the -AO tanking-