Leaderboard

UKMO amazing - snow event followed by more snow events + longivity of cold What more could we be asking for...

Beginners guide to the psyche of a model watcher in Winter..... 1) A cold spell is shown in FI - "it will never verify it will all go pear shaped" 2) A cold spell moves into the reliable timeframe - "that run looks very dry hardly any snow showing there" 3) The snow arrives after the commencement of said cold spell - "it maybe snowing outside but this cold spell looks like it will be finished next week" We are at Stage 2 at the moment! A very decent start to the day today model wise. I would be very happy in the event the ECM verified and it would seem that all roads lead to cold this morning. Indeed the GEM is a cracker following the durge it produced last night! But will it snow IMBY?

I've just read through the last 10 pages or so. Some of you seriously need to think about taking a break from watching the models and taking every run as gospel. It's gone from euphoria to throwing toys out the pram in the space of a few hours! Walk away from the computer, life is too short!

Well, this looks terrible..

GFS pretty much a carbon copy of the 18z UKMO goes from a 5/10 to a 8.5/10 which is the best positive GEM goes from zero to hero with a stella run & ICON drops in as well... A superb start to the day beast confidence ~ 75%

A tribute to THAT GFS

Crikey! Not sure how anyone musters up anything negative about the overnight runs. 1. Did the UKMO improve? Check 2. Do the ECM and GFS still show and easterly? Check 3. Are we very much in the winter games for the first time this winter? Check EC mean at 144 (important time frame) BINGO ps some of you wake up far too early to look at the models. I’d have to peel my eyes open and nail them to my forehead at that hour.

Ho hum dee dum. Interview done and back to the phone to see the most awesome GFS output of the season. Being blunt - pity it's GFS...but maybe something in the data has changed and we'll see ECM latch onto the same later. I hope brethren in the SW have woken up, because we'd have people drowning in the drifts again....... Usually a run like that would be written off...and in all probability it is overly extreme BUT worth pointing out at this stage that the evolution is not out of kilter with the forcings that are being applied to the north Atlantic circulation. Recent EC strat charts have shown a signal for a block to the W/NW and a jet driven further south, and so a split flow like that is entirely within the envelope of the possible, as impacts of the SSW increase. I'm sorry I can't access all my charts etc on my phone, but once home I'm going to have a really good look at the evolution of the pattern and see what may be what. Meanwhile don't forget that Tuesday is approaching and can still deliver for many. Just needs a westerly tweak as a product of underestimation of high pressure strength....something we have seen several times before. Jan 18 today. Can anyone remember the gloom and frustration of 10-14 days ago? Neither can I. Shows things can move very quickly in weather terms at times, and gloom should always be tempered with optimism when the signals are good.

That has to be a pretty rare sight. Back in March I was left feeling we had experienced a spell of very late season snow and cold that would be unlikely to happen again in a good long while. There is a chance - a chance - it might be topped if the depth of cold modelled now digs in for the long term. I was certain that we would see some good blocking this season conducive to cold and snow chances but I did not see such a deep trough and an SSW long delayed but high impact downwell like this that might paint northern Europe white for weeks. Maybe we can get somehing to happen that will take Brexit off our screens for a bit. Might be just what we need as a country...something cold and snowy to bring everyone back together!

Once again, Euro trough omnipresent. Once we get cold, the permutations are all loaded towards the cold variants.

I'm sorry but that's just not true mate. Look - <-- Heights to our north, just because they're not yellow. I'd crawl naked over broken glass for that to verify. That low to the NW is heading SE under the HP, carmageddon follows. Now go have a happy pill and play nicely with the other weather folk.

Afternoon all After some uncertainty with regards to the track of a winter storm over the eastern USA this weekend and how far out into the far north Atlantic it will track and interact or phase with low pressure ahead of it near Iceland diving southeast towards the North Sea Tuesday, it appears the models are starting to converge on the idea of low pressure over North Sea Tuesday dropping southeast across mainland / central Europe into Wednesday, while pressure / geopotential height rises build in to the north of the UK and over Scandinavia The buckling of the jet over the far north Atlantic ahead of that storm passing Nova Scotia Tuesday and jet stream downwind over the NE Atlantic turning southeast as a result, allows low pressure to dive southeast from Iceland towards the North Sea then into mainland EU and looks to be the main trigger for pressure to build to the north and northwest of the UK later next week. However, there are also signs, from the ECMWF high resolution, of an arctic high forming over eastern Greenland, I mentioned this yesterday too, perhaps in response to easterly winds starting to propagate down through the troposphere from the lower stratosphere – following the Sudden Stratospheric Warming to start the year. EC, with its better vertical resolution, probably get a better handle on the downwelling and how it will affect trop patterns and yesterday's EC stratosphere charts on the Berlin site showing easterly winds finally reaching down into the troposphere by the middle of next week. 06z GFS also has the easterlies reaching down through the troposphere, perhaps a few days later This arctic high has, on a few ECMWF runs now, been indicated to drop south to Scandinavia intensifying high pressure there, this and the sequence of events leading to the flow buckling northeast over the Atlantic portending to an easterly or northeasterly flow to develop towards the tail end of next week. However, there is still a fair bit of uncertainty how the synoptic pattern will evolve in detail, for now, beyond Wednesday, suffice to say an increasing risk, say 70%, for very cold air and increasing snow risk to arrive from NE Europe by the end of next week or next weekend. This very cold pattern could be sustained into early February, thanks to the delayed and slow downwelling of easterly winds in the stratosphere impacting circulation in the troposphere but over a protracted period too, so high latitude blocking could persist for a few weeks at least. Before then, worth keeping an eye on Monday night - active frontal system diving SE with quite cold northwesterly flow immediately behind coming from a very coold Greenland and NE Canda, 00z ECMWF was not overly keen on back edge snow away from more northern areas, 00z and 06z GFS show back edge snow all the way to southern England. Sleet and snow showers packing in behind across the northwest.

Some classic old school charts appearing. Makes me want to listen to some Human League records!

Day 9 sees GEFS mean Griceland ridge. We continue like this, and the pressure will be on for the Canadian lobe to de-camp and shift into the Atlantic. That's with a likely well entrenched cold pool across NW Europe. Go figure !

Incredible. Just utterly insane effort from the GFS..Filthy.

Just caught up with today's outputs and wow they have all the makings of a classic and protracted cold spell with plenty of snow chances if these charts get anywhere close to verifying. The UKMO charts are very Wintry Once we get that Euro upper trough established along with those northern wedges we can expect little wave disturbances heading west in the easterly/north easterly flow so every prospect of snow cropping up at quite short notice once that pattern is established.That's before any attempt from the Atlantic creating a battleground scenario from the south west later on. Now we can clearly see the way the split vortex is being modeled it means the path of the jet is diverted and much of the energy goes south. Classic!

Guys. It’s one run. and it’s not a reason to be petty or start bickering. it would be nice to not spend Friday night sitting loads of people out because it is way too busy to be dealing with bickering on an individual basis. there is some extreme knee jerking in here and it is misleading and unfair to those who aren’t familiar with the highs and lows that the chase for cold takes us on. Please don’t write off the cold spell over one frame. Also you don’t get a prize for being right if you decided earlier that this whole cold spell was going to be crap. There will be no one-upmanship tolerated on this thread. Just let it unfold and let’s see where it takes us.

Kind of chart we search all winter for at just T+132...

Absolutely Amazing charts showing up now.... and to think back in December we were being told by @Glacier Point @lorenzo @chionomaniac @Catacol @tight isobar @Steve Murr and others and im sorry if i have missed you out. They were going on about the impact of the SSW we were going to have back in December and how it would or could affect us further down the line possibly around mid month of January... Well many including myself was starting to have doubts as even back at the first week of January there was absolutely no sign of anything showing up in the extended outlook on the GFS or other models and yet here we are now with The Beast very much looking straight at the UK and is just waiting to pounce on us.. How they saw this coming amazes me and i would just like to give them all a massive THANK YOU... Also thanks to everybody on the forum and to the mods for making this a great weather forum to come onto and learn and to meet people with the same interests and obsessions with cold and SNOW. Not forgetting @nick sussex by the way and his shortwaves lol.... Enjoy your posts very much, just not your shortwaves....

OMG utterly stunning GFS output ! For the UK you won’t get much better than this if you’re a coldie.

Wow what an exciting time at the moment. Putting aside the details i.e snow/how cold, which personally I cannot be bothered with. The fact remains the models are suggesting a trough in the Med with high pressure between Iceland extending into Scandi. The end result is below average temps in the UK. However it is inevitable you will see details change with regards to temps/precip. You simply cannot expect -15C upper temps, constant streamers in every run! The pick of the day for me is the GEM. Absolute classic old school 1947 style cold spell. For anyone who didn't know the classic old school cold spells had alternating N,lys&E,lys as high pressure alternated between Greenland/Scandinavia. Worth mentioning that if the GEM is correct then during that switch from E,lys to N,lys then you will see a brief increase in the 850hpas. I mention this for those looking at the ensembles.

Thoughts so far this evening : 1. I'm glad I've been following the ecm ensembles the past 10 days. Very consistent on developments - cold coming, cold enough for snow for most coming, no coldaggeden just yet, no knockout blocking just yet. Same message day in day out. 2. Regardless of how successful a Scandi High is next week, the euro trough is not going anywhere. Any Atlantic attack looks likely to end up in Europe by the end - which will mean milder moments will be, probably, 24 hours maximum, if at all. 3. Regardless of what the Atlantic does next week, the longer term picture is going more and more for heights to the NW. Conclusion : It will be cold next week, and I'm guessing, like JH, probably cold the week after. To me, it's highly likely to be a matter of when, not if, that big snowfall comes.

A post in homage to @tight isobar @ COLD @ SNOW @ BLOCKING @ EASTERLY'S and for good measure chuck in a @feb1991blizzard @ STONKER the progression of those extreme 850 temps to the NE could be worth monitoring if the section of PV ends up in that area

No downgrades on ECM- perfect in my eyes! Plenty of snow over the UK 96-168

It looks like the weather is going to be turning much colder, so this place is going to be very busy. With this in mind, we need everyone to muck in and help keep everything running smoothly. So, if you're discussing the model output, great, this is the place. If not - please head to a different thread, there's loads to choose from, including: Model Banter - for loosely model related chat, moans and ramps. The regional threads - for local weather chat, including will it/won't it snow type discussion. Met Office 16-30 day forecast - for chatting about met office forecasts. As ever, please keep it friendly, and please report any posts you think are an issue. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: GFS GFS FV3 (Para) GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere

Extended ensemble means starting to reduce the Western US ridge in favour of Alaskan / Arctic ridges. Will be interesting to watch this trend as it opens the door for more westerly flow through the southern arm of the jet and undercutting . The Canadian lobe of the vortex should have no restraint and will bleed eastwards. The high expectation for February is for low pressure in the North Atlantic currently where we have a programmed anomalous ridge. That looks a reasonable bet given the cold air in situ currently Hudson Bay. The blanks to be filled in ... _____ pressure over Greenland .. ______ pressure over Scandinavia. Clue: one will be the inverse of the other.

That's interesting.. other than gut feeling, do you have any charts to back that rather sweeping statement up? nowhere on this mornings output have i seen the ridge sinking over us in the way you are suggesting. UKMO - nope ECMWF - nope GFS - Nope GEM- Nope If youn refer back to for example, some of @Catacol or @lorenzo 's posts (hope you don't mind me tagging you), you might understand why uk a high is pretty unlikely anytime soon. Take the time to take on board what the more technical posters are saying and you might learn some cool stuff, gut decisions don't usually end well in most situations, definitely not in nwp.

Every picture tells a story

Actually more like 06z control, and imagine that being undercut. Repeat: Euro trough going nowhere (and I;m taking more February here).

Hotel on phone...so no charts. A last word about Tuesdays trough and marginality. ECM shows -4 850s across much of the country with a filament of -8 following in behind at 120. However these are temperature bands. The -4 could very easily be -6 plus or minus...and this - in very very broad terms without considering DPs and other factors, makes the Tuesday forecast a nightmare for the pros....and a nightmare up until the very last minute. The further west that trough tracks the greater the chance of snow. But even on a track further east there is a snow to rain back to snow potential almost anywhere. 72 hours also reveals just how complex a picture the models have to resolve for Tuesday. The system jamming into the mid Atlantic block is very deep - big clash of 2 distinct pressure differences and so margin for error increases. Data on the low is likely to change - data on deep lows usually does. So genuinely Tuesday into Wednesday is likely to be a now cast situation and the models will be struggling. I usually like to nail my colours to the mast a bit, and risk getting things wrong in the process! - but right now I’m holding fire on saying anything more than has been said all along. Tuesday is the first chance of a major snow event in this forthcoming spell but it’s a chance and not a certainty.

GFSP/FV3 ups the ante. A slider into -12 uppers, carnage. Edit: how rude of me, -15 uppers:

Absolute delight reading this thread tonight!! I'm so giddy i can't even post lol.. If we can get UKMO 120 down to 48 then i will believe- until then i'm going to remain cautious, we are so close to the jackpot.. Carry on ramping.. ps snowing here but its not going to amount to anything, then again i'm fixated with the main course next week!!

Just seen the ENS confidence up to 80% of the beast! Timeline still +120 & non visibility of UKMO 168 accounts for the missing 20% Never the less fantastic runs- remember we are day 2 of the cold spell & ECM op runs to day 10 at least no end in site to day 11... Thats a hefty cold spell- UK CET sub 3 ... As per winter forecast..

Holy smokes !! 18Z is a belter !!! I hope its not one of those 'here's what you could have won' moments..

OK... GFSP has *widespread* 6 inches nearly countrywide, and a belt between Wales up through W.Midlands between 8-12 inches. That MAYBE one of the snowiest runs I've ever seen, even beating out a few runs from the last 24hrs. UNREAL.

Have I figured it out?

Moving on from a couple of posts in the short range the pressure from the double whammy exerted on the sharply amplifying mid Atlantic ridge, not only promotes the European low pressure north but also facilitates the advection of much colder air But it all gets a tad complicated after that with the Atlantic and European troughs dancing under the elongated ridge with some of the energy swinging around that and down to the sub tropical jet over North Africa. One can't say these aren't interesting times

Hi L I'm sorry you feel that way. Aggressive reply? Not at all, I'm not an aggressive person in anyway shape or form. But you are correct this is a forum and there is Nothing wrong with you having your opinion, so I've taken the time to reply to your post to just give a more balanced view (in my opinion), based on what the models are actually showing rather than "gut feeling". Part of Forum life is people may not agree with you and therefore a debate will take place. So I'm far from upset, I reply often to your post as they do tend to contradict the actual pattern being modelled more often than not. Sorry if you took my reply in the wrong way. Cheers Karl

An over riding sense of relief this morning ! The UKMO is an improvement even though it takes some shortwave energy east not as much as last night. You’d still want more margin of error though . Overall the models that weren’t interested are now moving in the right direction . The ECM and GFS are variations on the same theme from last night . In terms of snow off any easterly to be honest it’s pointless worrying about convective potential at this stage . Two reasons models are hopeless at picking that up in the longer range and we don’t know the exact strength of the flow and other factors this far out . I still think we need one more full set of runs just to be sure and hopefully we can have no more dramas!

You suit yourself. I'll be cracking out the STELLAS tonight. Snow within 4 days on that run:

An Easterly spanning half the Northern Hemisphere.. If that isn't a direct response to the SSW Easterlies downwelling then I don't know what is!

In terms of winter synoptic for the UK it doesn't really get much better than the 12z GFS - Atlantic ridge, Scandi high, Murr sausage, full retrograde pattern, Greenland high.

no one should think that the overnight runs have downgraded anything .....they are merely fluctuating within an envelope - some parts are better for cold some are worse for snow .... it’s normal if anything, the T2’s are tending colder in the 6/11 day period and no sign of the cold period relenting

There is a post n the banter thread which I hope most will read as it may help the atmosphere in here as the models attempt to get the correct emphasis on, as Paul suggests at the top, the cold spell, probably 2 weeks or so as far as I can see.

I could post charts like this all day long..hang on..that's what I've been doing..and I have a feeling I will be posting plenty more in the coming hours, days, weeks..months

We have had the christening...the baby is now in nursery... And is skipping middle school...straight for college...we have brought him up well..amazing stuff this evening!!!

Can’t tell you number of times I’ve seen cold spells forecast to be dry only to see large amounts of widespread snow and vice versa. Or the number of times rain has been predicted only for it to fall as snow or vice vesa. Snow is very difficult to predict even at short range in this country. Pointless looking at such detail at this range. You’ll drive yourself nuts!

have a good day all -192 is superb with -13s attacking the UK from the East...

OMG OMG OMG . The slayer model is on board UKMO

Key thing to watch over the coming days is whether that mean T850 can get to -10 or below around the 27th/28th. Parallel 06z sort of painting a picture of what is the most likely trend towards early Feb.