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Showing most liked content on 18/01/19 in all areas

  1. 55 likes
    Ho hum dee dum. Interview done and back to the phone to see the most awesome GFS output of the season. Being blunt - pity it's GFS...but maybe something in the data has changed and we'll see ECM latch onto the same later. I hope brethren in the SW have woken up, because we'd have people drowning in the drifts again....... Usually a run like that would be written off...and in all probability it is overly extreme BUT worth pointing out at this stage that the evolution is not out of kilter with the forcings that are being applied to the north Atlantic circulation. Recent EC strat charts have shown a signal for a block to the W/NW and a jet driven further south, and so a split flow like that is entirely within the envelope of the possible, as impacts of the SSW increase. I'm sorry I can't access all my charts etc on my phone, but once home I'm going to have a really good look at the evolution of the pattern and see what may be what. Meanwhile don't forget that Tuesday is approaching and can still deliver for many. Just needs a westerly tweak as a product of underestimation of high pressure strength....something we have seen several times before. Jan 18 today. Can anyone remember the gloom and frustration of 10-14 days ago? Neither can I. Shows things can move very quickly in weather terms at times, and gloom should always be tempered with optimism when the signals are good.
  2. 29 likes
    Actually more like 06z control, and imagine that being undercut. Repeat: Euro trough going nowhere (and I;m taking more February here).
  3. 28 likes
    Absolute delight reading this thread tonight!! I'm so giddy i can't even post lol.. If we can get UKMO 120 down to 48 then i will believe- until then i'm going to remain cautious, we are so close to the jackpot.. Carry on ramping.. ps snowing here but its not going to amount to anything, then again i'm fixated with the main course next week!!
  4. 25 likes
    no one should think that the overnight runs have downgraded anything .....they are merely fluctuating within an envelope - some parts are better for cold some are worse for snow .... it’s normal if anything, the T2’s are tending colder in the 6/11 day period and no sign of the cold period relenting
  5. 23 likes
    Key thing to watch over the coming days is whether that mean T850 can get to -10 or below around the 27th/28th. Parallel 06z sort of painting a picture of what is the most likely trend towards early Feb.
  6. 21 likes
    Never imagined you as a waitress in a cocktail bar Dave! Some of those winters were just barmy - this place wouldn’t cope !
  7. 20 likes
    It really infuriates me when people comment saying not as good this run then the next comment is scrap it it’s all good, let the flaming thing run through a bit first before all the knee jerk comments! There’s so many good knowledgeable people in here maybe some need to learn from them and stop the up down up down so much. How can people learn with it all....drives me mad. Sorry mods off topic but you have your work cut out in here at times
  8. 19 likes
  9. 16 likes
    Firstly wrong thread But worth a response , D Bett showed cold NElies over the UK , this is on the Beeb web site updated at 20:56 " NWlies mid week , then look what happens NElies later in the week bring even colder air "……………….it clearly didn't follow ECM
  10. 16 likes
    Nice try, Theresa! I do agree though, it does feel like we could potentially be on the cusp of something very special yet again, everything appears to be falling into place. I certainly can’t remember a time since Dec 2010 when the models/professionals have been so bullish on not only cold weather, but cold weather that doesn’t actually have an end in sight..
  11. 16 likes
    Not often we talk about all the action being SOUTH of the M4 corridor: Block getting reinforced. Sidney will need to prepare:
  12. 16 likes
    Looks like 06z GFS might be going for the Atlantic undercut weekend of the 26/27th - that would be good news
  13. 14 likes
    Gotta love signs of the GFS reloading at 384 - have a feeling a few white flags would be out by then if this run came to fruition.
  14. 13 likes
    Pub runT192: From here it is a simple matter of exactly how the mayhem happens. Popcorn?
  15. 13 likes
    Let's all have a massive breakdown because one model run doesn't show a 'the day after tomorrow' weather pattern because many believe in the saying 'the weather is set in stone 'cos a model said so'.......good grief, have a word some of you.....if there's cross model consensus at T48 for no wintry nirvana then by all means crack open the prozac, tramadol etc etc but until then relax, don't hang on every nuance of every run!
  16. 13 likes
    Height's all the way from Siberia via Scandi to Greenland with undercutting scenario's,WHAT MORE CAN YOU WISH FOR,absolutely stunning chart.
  17. 12 likes
    It appears to me that until the models get to grips with the energy distribution out of North America quite early on, which is leading to widening differences as the runs progress, then there is not much point at looking too far past T120, and even that;s pushing the envelope. There are even problems within the same model as a glance at the EPS for T150 on the last two runs illustrates
  18. 12 likes
    I don't normaly post until later on but i couldn't resist the UKMO joins the party
  19. 11 likes
    Sunny in Greenland. Going to be many different ideas to where we end up but theme is great and best of all the ukmo is on board
  20. 11 likes
    I think some are at risk of over analysing these models, worrying about isobars being in a very slightly different place is taking things a little too literally. UKMO 120 - Fantastic GFS so far is a little better, alignment seems better for riding around the trough towards Scandinavia
  21. 11 likes
    An extract from the Amy Butler tweet just posted In this vein, the FV3GFS implementation has been delayed. No new development is ongoing with that model. That’s the flagship US global model that is a starting point for many NWS products. We are delaying any advancement of that model and its ensemble.
  22. 10 likes
    I really doubt if the EC-oper has the right scenario. This morning it's solution had support of 8% of the members.
  23. 10 likes
    Why would we need upgrades on the ECM JS ? Looks stonking to me on the op . Very cold and possibly snowy .
  24. 9 likes
    I don’t care if it’s a mince pie, I want a bite
  25. 9 likes
    5 models with the ECM the odd one out, all the rest looking colder/snowier/north-easterly feed
  26. 9 likes
    Don’t get me wrong, I’m loving the charts and high spirits right now but I’m erring on the side of caution, we have been here before... it’s still a long way out in weather terms. Until we are at T+24 im going to be sitting here with my hands in front of my face in case it all goes wrong
  27. 9 likes
    Charts? I’ve yet to see any pictures to back up this negative implicit. Its coming across as deceiving and somewhat confusing to newer members. The weather in a nutshell is set to turn much colder with a risk of snow anywhere in the country in the next 5 days. Unless you can provide charts that suggest otherwise?
  28. 8 likes
    The 12z Op is at the top end of the spread on the pressure graph on the 26th
  29. 8 likes
    This did catch my eye on the raw GFS 12z run, the 850s looked rather chilly following on behind the trough....that ppn chart confirms. Tuesday could be interesting....and then there is the rest of the run to savour. Good stuff all round
  30. 8 likes
    I'll take that, for Day 6...Plenty of kinky isobars, too!
  31. 8 likes
    It might surprise but we haven't really had many penetrating frosts to cool the soil down (last night was about -1) However as per previous post, we are only really taking are seats for dinner at this stage. The table is booked for the whole evening and the reliable models are screaming after hours lock-in. Hopefully ICON isn't the babysitter that will call and tell us we have come home because little Johnny has been sick down his pyjamas.
  32. 7 likes
    That's one of the most perfect things I've ever seen.
  33. 7 likes
    There's something I really like about the GEFS 12z mean...what could it be..hmmm..oh yes it becomes cold / very cold and blocked!
  34. 7 likes
    Monday nights front should be snow now going by Ukmo!
  35. 7 likes
    I can't believe we are seeing synoptics like this at only 7-8 days out!!
  36. 7 likes
    Todays favourite model is the CMA , to be fair it has been quite consistent
  37. 7 likes
    Haha! When you got runs like this morning churning out, with what seems like a trend forming to very very cold, quite a few of us will be up now! As Steve says, we woke up yesterday to delight and the same today... What is going on? This never happens!! We now have snow events entering the reliable
  38. 6 likes
    The bad news is the ECM hangs around with that shortwave energy to the nw . The good news is that the profile at day 7 given where the PV lobe is being pulled nw by that big USA storm means if the ECM doesn’t come up with some good later output we really have been cursed!
  39. 6 likes
    Light Snow in Prestwick at sea level.
  40. 6 likes
  41. 5 likes
    GFSP is out to 84 and all is good, slight improvement vs the 12z thus far
  42. 5 likes
    To my surprise there's a covering of snow and it's still snowing steadily. It snowed a little earlier but I didn't expect anything more than a few flurries. Nothing spectacular but it's nice to see some snow on the ground.
  43. 5 likes
    Haven't you just given your opinion, very clearly, above this?
  44. 5 likes
    I wouldn't worry about the ECM operational run. We'll see were it sits in the ensemble suite. At the same time it can't be ignored. If you are worried about it you'll just have to sleep on it until the morning. Most models have us in a good place for a major pattern change this evening.
  45. 5 likes
    A few tiny wee flakes falling in Currie. Models look unbelievable for next week onwards ! Some great commentary in the model thread at the moment. Fingers crossed!
  46. 5 likes
    Glossop looking towards the hill that Monks Road goes over.
  47. 5 likes
    February looking cold as well - not just an isolated run either - this is about the time you want them on board as well.
  48. 5 likes
  49. 5 likes
    That run sequence reminds me of a 1970s kaleidoscope i had as a child.
  50. 5 likes
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