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  1. 89 points
    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3 Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just underway, and winter is not over by a long way. Then go and read up a bit about SSW's so next time you make a sweeping statement you are doing so from a position of greater knowledge. Thank You
  2. 72 points
    Feel I have an apology to make. If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed up (partly due to the way this thread was going and for other reasons). Regardless, I shouldn’t have taken out my frustrations on here by vaporising this thread and leaving people feeling confused and worried as to what happened. It wasn’t fair and I didn’t let any members of my team know what I did. Nor anyone on here. I’m sorry for behaving that way and wouldn’t blame anyone for being annoyed. Not really a great example for a mod/host to set. While I appreciate some of the damage I likely caused (even though some will probably look back on the mysteriousness of the missing thread and laugh), I will make sure it doesn’t happen again. After all, this thread is meant to be a laid back and fun place for you guys to chat about the models, and would hate to ruin that mood. Could have chosen not to have said anything at all, but feel you guys deserved to know the truth!
  3. 68 points
    Leaked express headline for tomorrow. #sorrynotsorry
  4. 68 points
    UKMO amazing - snow event followed by more snow events + longivity of cold What more could we be asking for...
  5. 66 points
    Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars for the 500-1000 chart. Also the same times for the 850-1000. Slight differences but why the posts that have phrases like’game over’ and such? These do not help new folk understand what is happening. I honestly cannot see that, in the time scale I mention, there is much that is markedly different on the two runs. If you are commenting beyond T+120-144, and in this fairly volatile state of the northern atmosphere perhaps even near T+00 then you MUST compare like with like. It is way too far ahead to use the argument that the run has the most up to date data and therefore must be more accurate. It does not hold, believe me, sorry to be a bit dogmatic but 20+ years of forecasting makes me feel you may just bear with me over that. Come on I posted this morning about the overall upper air signals, yes the run to run of the models may well vary but the cold is here for 2 weeks possibly longer. To be sure of what values in each of our back gardens or even more so will it snow/when/how much then be realistic. Models 2x or 4x daily will NOT be accurate for temperature before about T+72 and for ppn of whatever type before T+48 and sometimes not even T+12. If you can accept these restrictions life on here can be enjoyable and useful for learning for us all with no loss of enjoyment. Shall we try this for 24 hours or so.
  6. 66 points
    I've just read through the last 10 pages or so. Some of you seriously need to think about taking a break from watching the models and taking every run as gospel. It's gone from euphoria to throwing toys out the pram in the space of a few hours! Walk away from the computer, life is too short!
  7. 64 points
    Beginners guide to the psyche of a model watcher in Winter..... 1) A cold spell is shown in FI - "it will never verify it will all go pear shaped" 2) A cold spell moves into the reliable timeframe - "that run looks very dry hardly any snow showing there" 3) The snow arrives after the commencement of said cold spell - "it maybe snowing outside but this cold spell looks like it will be finished next week" We are at Stage 2 at the moment! A very decent start to the day today model wise. I would be very happy in the event the ECM verified and it would seem that all roads lead to cold this morning. Indeed the GEM is a cracker following the durge it produced last night! But will it snow IMBY?
  8. 61 points
  9. 60 points
    The warmer air creeping east today with the font And to digress for a moment. I was in a taxi just now and the driver started wittering on about how he loved cold weather. I thought, 'the bloody nutters are every where', as i deleted the taxi firm from my contacts.
  10. 59 points
  11. 59 points
    GFS pretty much a carbon copy of the 18z UKMO goes from a 5/10 to a 8.5/10 which is the best positive GEM goes from zero to hero with a stella run & ICON drops in as well... A superb start to the day beast confidence ~ 75%
  12. 56 points
    Nope - that isn't what I would ask because an answer sits already within your first sentence. If you don't know anything about the background signals that are regularly discussed then it might be as well not to risk suggesting they are a waste of time. Dark Arts - no. If it was dark arts then we wouldn't even have NWP because science wouldn't apply either. There are a lot of helpful guides on this site, and a number of places you could go to begin growing an understanding of what drives the atmosphere, and then your contributions would be more useful. Either you are genuinely interested in what is going on and are frustrated and not being able to explain/understand the processes, or you are here to act as a deliberate lightning conductor for the frustrations that some are feeling right now - and that is an approach which is unhelpful. Whichever it is it seems a huge waste of time, because non-engagement with the processes means intellectual stagnation or attempting to magnify forum frustration means marginalisation from the real debate. Neither approach will take you anywhere.
  13. 56 points
    Ho hum dee dum. Interview done and back to the phone to see the most awesome GFS output of the season. Being blunt - pity it's GFS...but maybe something in the data has changed and we'll see ECM latch onto the same later. I hope brethren in the SW have woken up, because we'd have people drowning in the drifts again....... Usually a run like that would be written off...and in all probability it is overly extreme BUT worth pointing out at this stage that the evolution is not out of kilter with the forcings that are being applied to the north Atlantic circulation. Recent EC strat charts have shown a signal for a block to the W/NW and a jet driven further south, and so a split flow like that is entirely within the envelope of the possible, as impacts of the SSW increase. I'm sorry I can't access all my charts etc on my phone, but once home I'm going to have a really good look at the evolution of the pattern and see what may be what. Meanwhile don't forget that Tuesday is approaching and can still deliver for many. Just needs a westerly tweak as a product of underestimation of high pressure strength....something we have seen several times before. Jan 18 today. Can anyone remember the gloom and frustration of 10-14 days ago? Neither can I. Shows things can move very quickly in weather terms at times, and gloom should always be tempered with optimism when the signals are good.
  14. 56 points
    Crikey! Not sure how anyone musters up anything negative about the overnight runs. 1. Did the UKMO improve? Check 2. Do the ECM and GFS still show and easterly? Check 3. Are we very much in the winter games for the first time this winter? Check EC mean at 144 (important time frame) BINGO ps some of you wake up far too early to look at the models. I’d have to peel my eyes open and nail them to my forehead at that hour.
  15. 55 points
  16. 54 points
    That has to be a pretty rare sight. Back in March I was left feeling we had experienced a spell of very late season snow and cold that would be unlikely to happen again in a good long while. There is a chance - a chance - it might be topped if the depth of cold modelled now digs in for the long term. I was certain that we would see some good blocking this season conducive to cold and snow chances but I did not see such a deep trough and an SSW long delayed but high impact downwell like this that might paint northern Europe white for weeks. Maybe we can get somehing to happen that will take Brexit off our screens for a bit. Might be just what we need as a country...something cold and snowy to bring everyone back together!
  17. 52 points
    @CreweCold Arron .....I never made a winter forecast - I don’t have the capability or inclination. So your expectations are down to you. Fwiw, I think we would have had a wintry jan if it weren’t for the magnitude of the ssw which interfered with the tropics forcing. If the lack of winter in your area thus far means you can’t look at a cold period we are currently in and which I see continuing as being worth posting about then that’s your issue, not mine. I can only post what I see, on the modelling and use my experience to say where I think where the means are leading us. Last third of dec I thought a more wintry period would kick in post jan 7th. a weekly so before that I amended with a two week delay because of the impact of the ssw on the tropical forcing from the Pacific. Post the 20th has indeed been more traditionally wintry - granted not deeply cold and we know how the system off the esb interfered with the modelled pattern for late last week. @ICE COLD how the friggin hell can you accuse me of hope Casting!! I have posted the evidence ITS COLD AND IT WILL STAY COLD FOR THE RELIABLE AND IT WILL SNOW - I THINK ITS FIVE YEARS SINCE WE HAD WIDESPREAD JANUARY SNOW -
  18. 51 points
    Wow. I’ve managed to read 7 pages without removing a post. Well done all, this is how the more relaxed thread should be. Let’s see if we can double that!
  19. 51 points
    Yawn, another non-ice-age type run and the same people acting in the same childish way again. It'd be a shame to stop people posting in here, but the petulant kids act and the petty bickering really needs to stop, it's tiresome.
  20. 51 points
    Afternoon All- Im really suprised that noone has picked up on the UKMO 144- Heights to the NE & a diving jet usually spells Easterly ( around 168 )
  21. 51 points
    Interesting morning and really encouraging IMO in terms of the set of model suites we were looking at on Thursday and Friday being chipped away at then collapsing into something else late Friday into Saturday morning. Given the up close review of each run, and I get that, it is a time where the deck remains stacked in our favour. However, given the long lead on the SSW, the count down to it happening, the displacement and then elongation in time of the SSW via the vortex split. I think this has generated fatigue, it's certainly been a long watch! The AO profile overall, whilst an output vs. a driver shows the trend and this looks solid as Jan ends, this is supported by both the Strat Temp Anoms and NAM 'paint drip'. There have been hints of the AO dropping to -3 and 04 SD, without 'fully' getting there. I think it is an eventuality vs a jam tomorrow. Indeed that phrase is getting used a lot, to contextualise - the after effects of an SSW 'will be' jam tomorrow given the lead times for imprints on the atmosphere.. AAM and GWO dynamics illustrated below, relative AAM courtesy of torque activity, gives a steer on expecting to see blocking regimes manifest, as does the SSW, so a double ingredient here. From this morning's GFS we can see from around Day 9 both the AO starting to drop again and also blocking coming online over Greenland, c 26th is where the trend commences to elevate heights here, and there is a lot of energy firing towards Nuuk to start causing the Arctic profile to shuffle. ECM goes back to something akin to the earlier ENS and just needs some sharper inflection to do similar damage and mirror it's weeklies. I would say the US Storm, impacts on the jet, careering into the NE Canadian portion of the vortex as we all have seen collapsing the nirvana charts on offer at the end of last week has played through the system now, models catching onto again the true sense of direction. That wave guide remains, the signals for HLB remains, the down welling remains, the AO tendency remains, the AAM increase is there. Whilst the hyperbole of no definitive easterly programming from 210 down to 0 hrs created despondency, there is a lot that remains bloody good for - the end of January with a ton of winter left.
  22. 51 points
    Once again, Euro trough omnipresent. Once we get cold, the permutations are all loaded towards the cold variants.
  23. 50 points
    Quick summary from me. Appears to me the models were too quick in removing an E,ly and we shall see an E,ly flow albeit brief and nothing noteworthy. Thereafter a brief warm up which is clearly shown on the 0Z GEFS ensembles. A very quick return to a N,ly flow and thereafter a strong signal that low pressure will finally sink SE and we shall be in a NE/E,ly flow. Around end of the month/start of Feb a strong signal that HLB will keep the UK in a cold/very cold NE/E,ly flow. So mostly cold but any significant cold/snowy spell remains towards end of the month/early Feb. I shall finally add that exactly a year ago today on my birthday I was in intensive care and nearly died from Pneumonia. I no longer get so excited at the high and lows of following the models because I realised there is far more important things than snow!
  24. 50 points
    Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are means so do tend to be less up/down compared to the synoptic 6 or 12 hourly outputs. Indeed I would suggest it might be a better idea to simply look at the synoptic 500 mb chart run to run or better still to compare like runs, you may have heard that somewhere else before! Anyway The ECMWF-GFS this morning Not surprisingly they are not that different to what they have predicted over the past 4 or 5 days, see below Atlantic ridging towards Greenland and EC still with GFS now showing a building of ridging over Scandinavia with an extension west towards Greenland. Something that the occasional run on the 6 hours outputs has suggested. Marked troughing on both remains into Europe. The configuration on these two shows lower contour heights on EC compared to GFS. However on both the upper flow shows the cold will persist over the next 6-10 days. Okay it may wax and wane but no signal showing for any mild air for the UK. So what about NOAA and it has a chart that covers 8-14 days out. The 6-10 last evening, largely between the UK and Scandinavia well north with the flow dropping into the European trough. About a week ago the contour flow had the slightest hint of this. The actual +ve height anomaly is show away from any of this, just off the American coast. With such a meridional flow obviously the contour heights over the UK area are higher than the other two. This has little effect ob surface temperatures, indeed if there is any surface ridging in between weather systems might create lower values at the surface. To me the strong flow out of America does leave a question mark for day to day. Will any deepening systems move NE or SE once into the eastern Atlantic? With the deep trough east of the UK one would expect them to steer SE or ESE, which may provide some excitement if they get close to the UK. Looking at their 8-14 day chart and perhaps the most interesting change from the 6-10 is the increase in –ve heights over NW Europe. Again little signal for any mild air. That is unless we get a flow not easterly but SE/or worse SSE with air originating from the Med. Nothing to be concerned about in the next 6-10 days but a possibility beyond that. So, overall the cold will continue, the synoptic models will come and go so to speak on its depth and ideas on where/when any ppn will occur. Up to 24 hours out forget what the models may predict, they are right a few times at longer time scales but not often. Just think back to summer set ups and how often they get the rainfall correct? In winter there are another 8 or so additional variables to get right. Hope this summary helps calm the nerves a little. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  25. 50 points
    I'm sorry but that's just not true mate. Look - <-- Heights to our north, just because they're not yellow. I'd crawl naked over broken glass for that to verify. That low to the NW is heading SE under the HP, carmageddon follows. Now go have a happy pill and play nicely with the other weather folk.
  26. 49 points
    2 things - ICON quite a bit south @72- Plus - Guys above^^^ Do we really think the MET Office, the most reserved institute in the UK are going to hopecast a cold spell? No, for then to repeatedly put the key words around deep cold from the East into the medium & long term forecasts suggest via their modelling its 'probable' They do not base their forecasts- especially one linked to the Stratosphere on the bodgit & scarper model the GFS- So just sit tight & be patient.
  27. 49 points
    Would normally not put a one liner on without charts - however given the paywall status of the EC Ens and clusters, all I can say is think - weeklies. Today will be a good day The roller coaster is firmly back on the tracks and heading for the winter theme park.
  28. 48 points
    Day 9 sees GEFS mean Griceland ridge. We continue like this, and the pressure will be on for the Canadian lobe to de-camp and shift into the Atlantic. That's with a likely well entrenched cold pool across NW Europe. Go figure !
  29. 47 points
    Look mummy! We can see the south side of the M4!
  30. 47 points
    Incredible. Just utterly insane effort from the GFS..Filthy.
  31. 47 points
    Afternoon all After some uncertainty with regards to the track of a winter storm over the eastern USA this weekend and how far out into the far north Atlantic it will track and interact or phase with low pressure ahead of it near Iceland diving southeast towards the North Sea Tuesday, it appears the models are starting to converge on the idea of low pressure over North Sea Tuesday dropping southeast across mainland / central Europe into Wednesday, while pressure / geopotential height rises build in to the north of the UK and over Scandinavia The buckling of the jet over the far north Atlantic ahead of that storm passing Nova Scotia Tuesday and jet stream downwind over the NE Atlantic turning southeast as a result, allows low pressure to dive southeast from Iceland towards the North Sea then into mainland EU and looks to be the main trigger for pressure to build to the north and northwest of the UK later next week. However, there are also signs, from the ECMWF high resolution, of an arctic high forming over eastern Greenland, I mentioned this yesterday too, perhaps in response to easterly winds starting to propagate down through the troposphere from the lower stratosphere – following the Sudden Stratospheric Warming to start the year. EC, with its better vertical resolution, probably get a better handle on the downwelling and how it will affect trop patterns and yesterday's EC stratosphere charts on the Berlin site showing easterly winds finally reaching down into the troposphere by the middle of next week. 06z GFS also has the easterlies reaching down through the troposphere, perhaps a few days later This arctic high has, on a few ECMWF runs now, been indicated to drop south to Scandinavia intensifying high pressure there, this and the sequence of events leading to the flow buckling northeast over the Atlantic portending to an easterly or northeasterly flow to develop towards the tail end of next week. However, there is still a fair bit of uncertainty how the synoptic pattern will evolve in detail, for now, beyond Wednesday, suffice to say an increasing risk, say 70%, for very cold air and increasing snow risk to arrive from NE Europe by the end of next week or next weekend. This very cold pattern could be sustained into early February, thanks to the delayed and slow downwelling of easterly winds in the stratosphere impacting circulation in the troposphere but over a protracted period too, so high latitude blocking could persist for a few weeks at least. Before then, worth keeping an eye on Monday night - active frontal system diving SE with quite cold northwesterly flow immediately behind coming from a very coold Greenland and NE Canda, 00z ECMWF was not overly keen on back edge snow away from more northern areas, 00z and 06z GFS show back edge snow all the way to southern England. Sleet and snow showers packing in behind across the northwest.
  32. 47 points
    Some classic old school charts appearing. Makes me want to listen to some Human League records!
  33. 46 points
    May I suggest that those who wish to conduct the winter post mortem two day into February perhaps wait until winter is actually over. And by that I mean something like April? I mean, unless you were under a rock last March it is exceptionally premature. Would you write off Summer in August?! No. Calling people out for having the balls to nail their colours to the mast and call a longer range pattern and publicly give a forecast a shot should be applauded not ridiculed. I don’t see many of you who are saying ‘I told you so’ with a great deal of public analysis under your belts. be nice.
  34. 46 points
  35. 45 points
    OMG best UKMO of the year team !!! Superb ..... Look at the AO tanking & the atlantic low falling apart!
  36. 45 points
    Long post coming - sorry. Just for fun - let's use JMA today for a bit of analysis given the good record back in Feb 18. Your interpretation seems a bit odd given the truth of the date, and the pattern we are seeing evolve. Tuesday first of all. While 850s are low enough for snow, just looking at the flow will tell you here that thicknesses are going to be on the wrong side of the line for significant snow. For anywhere away from high ground this will be a cold rain, maybe sleet, event. In essence the trough has not dropped steeply enough to be termed a slider and there is little to no flow off the continent to pull cold, dry air into the mix. A bit disappointing, but it was always one of the options given the angle of attack. But I think @chionomaniac hit the nail on the head when he talked about a repeating pattern. I assume everyone is now coming around to the likely evolution of 2-3 days of dry and benign weather at the end of the week once the trough drops into place. This always seemed a decent probability given the proximity of the block to the west and the uncertainty surrounding speed of transition to the next pattern phase. Sometimes its good to go back through posts and retrace your own steps a bit on the rollercoaster journey...and from a personal standpoint (like many) I got carried away with the stellar charts that appeared pre Saturday. However back on Wednesday I posted this - "So - the trough drops giving some snow somewhere... then maybe a more stagnant day or 3 at the back end of the week (but still cold) as the pattern settles"....and that was probably a decent gut feeling at a week's range that I should have stuck to. Still - easy to get carried away when the hunt gets hot! But as the pattern waxes and wanes all roads are still leading in the same direction regardless of grumpiness about the disappointing trend of Weds/Thurs of this week. By Friday the amplification process gets its skates on, and the transition of the ridge becomes apparent with heights pouring from atlantic to scandy The overnight highest performing ECM backs up this view, though notice the further eastwards progression of a system running over the top...reducing the ability of pressure transfer within that 24 hour window. However the end product by Sunday is pretty much the same - JMA for Sunday (admittedly yesterday's 12z) sees the trough drop back through the UK once again with block to the west and strong ridging over Russia Less strong block to the east from ECM but same basic setup And GEM (note - as good as ECM at 192 in Dec 2108 on verification stats) on the same page also though the trough is much less pronounced Finally GFS - same again though heights over Russa are quite weak in comparson So - if we are looking for the next "certainty" in terms of pattern beyond the frustration of the failed easterly this week then we can perhaps look for another cold trough on Sunday 27th (Note - not even February yet!!) to drop in....and maybe this time more mature SSW impacts and move of MJO closer to favoured phases will help it stick with heights to the north. Ensembles certainly say YES. EPS and GEFS below for 3 days later (Weds 30th) all in line for heights increasing after this second slider/drop of trough north to south What's not to like???????
  37. 45 points
    Is there really any need for the oneupmanship in here, it's not a competition.
  38. 44 points
    Really am bemused by some of you on here constantly looking for breakdowns in far fi, the cold has only just arrived with snow to come this week but your looking at it all blowing away with ease in fi and taking it as gospel, it’s all going to chop and change so it’s completely irrelevant and pretty sad if you ask me
  39. 44 points
    To be fair @DiagonalRedLine that is not model related could I kindly ask you to post in the appropriate thread in future. If not it may be removed, or we will be forced to remove your posting privileges many thanks banter team
  40. 44 points
    OUTLOOK: Snow or rain in cold or mild east, north or west winds, temperatures between record lows and record highs, could clear for sunshine and frosts, otherwise very mild nights with fog. Low UV index.
  41. 44 points
    Kind of chart we search all winter for at just T+132...
  42. 42 points
    Good news on the MJO moving much quicker into phase 7. This is welcome indeed ! Should help prospects for some blocking .
  43. 42 points
    Let's hope this isn't the winning photo of Winter 2019!
  44. 42 points
    I've just heard we're going back in. Last time they told us it would be easy, that there would be little opposition to the advance West, but they had forces waiting for us. We took casualties, lost some good people, but now we are ready and their forces depleted. Strap in boys and girls, it s time for some payback.
  45. 42 points
    Just caught up with today's outputs and wow they have all the makings of a classic and protracted cold spell with plenty of snow chances if these charts get anywhere close to verifying. The UKMO charts are very Wintry Once we get that Euro upper trough established along with those northern wedges we can expect little wave disturbances heading west in the easterly/north easterly flow so every prospect of snow cropping up at quite short notice once that pattern is established.That's before any attempt from the Atlantic creating a battleground scenario from the south west later on. Now we can clearly see the way the split vortex is being modeled it means the path of the jet is diverted and much of the energy goes south. Classic!
  46. 41 points
    Ok, enough of the childish ott moaning in here, it's too much and is throwing the thread way off topic. Any more will be deleted, and persistent offenders with regard to this sort if thing will be stopped from posting in here.
  47. 41 points
    Now I have more time I shall give you some examples of why im delighted with the output. I shall also explain why the models were wrong at +72 to +96 and how they have changed for the better. First of all the low below is now heading SE. A few days ago the models did the usual of being reluctant to send this SE. This is a typical bias of the models when a low pressure comes up against a high pressure in this locality. The presence of this high pressure is important further along. The next low is the trigger because this is also heading SE. As it does so pressure rises to our N and is reinforced by the high pressure to our NE. The end result is more of a NE,ly than E,ly at this stage and it depends how far S the low goes. The SLP ensembles for Iceland/Oslo say it all really compared to a few days ago. Only a few days ago the Iceland SLP mean was only 1008mb and now stands 1022mb and is likely to become 1030mb. The drop on the 29th is when the low pressure moves SE. Oslo SLP is even more impressive increasing to 1030mb with solid agreement except GEFS control at the end. Only caution I would advise is whether the GFS is over doing the blocking and if the low does not head far enough SE. At this stage im not concerned. All of this is backed with the Cambs ensembles at -7C!
  48. 40 points
    Thats because its the same chart
  49. 40 points
    Guys. It’s one run. and it’s not a reason to be petty or start bickering. it would be nice to not spend Friday night sitting loads of people out because it is way too busy to be dealing with bickering on an individual basis. there is some extreme knee jerking in here and it is misleading and unfair to those who aren’t familiar with the highs and lows that the chase for cold takes us on. Please don’t write off the cold spell over one frame. Also you don’t get a prize for being right if you decided earlier that this whole cold spell was going to be crap. There will be no one-upmanship tolerated on this thread. Just let it unfold and let’s see where it takes us.
  50. 39 points
    And finally... finished reading and there’s a hour of my life I’m never getting back All for a bit of light heartedness thrown in but honestly, the quality of the postings today are the worst I’ve seen on a model related thread. Some people only seem to log on so they can post i.e. “Hi peeps. Are the charts showing potential yet? lol top banta” and “Ha ha 10 days blah blah, background signals sly dig” etc etc. All getting very cringeworthy and dull. And yes, the irony of my non model related comments above are not lost on me. Anyway, all I see is another decent day of chart output and great prospects heading into February. Cold and snow chances incoming. May not come to fruition of course but I am enjoying the current output nevertheless. Got to be in it to win it.
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