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Pondering evolution and longevity today. It's taken it's time in coming - and I will do a longer post later tying in the thoughts of December and early January into what is happening now - but the gloom of 5 days ago seems a distant memory as the blocks begin to drop into place. In Dec 2010 we got a very swift transition to a deep scandy trough supported by a very sharp and strong greeny high - but it wasnt particularly long lived. It started to fade within a week because all the drivers were moving things back to a mobile pattern, and then the rest of the winter was unmemorable. This time around we have a much slower evolution - but the blocks are in place for a much more sustained affair. The initial cyclonic euro/scandy blast wont be quite as severe or swift as 2010 because we havent got the same strong block surging up over greeny BUT we are in the heart of winter rather than at the outer edge and with pacific signals remaining on track and a slow strat process suggesting slow but positive evolutions ahead we could find ourselves in a pattern that sustains the cold and, at this time of year, brings plenty of snow from this predominantly cyclonic signal, at least in the medium term. Might we see mention of blizzards in parts? Quite possible. Longer term more entrenched cold, maybe a bit less precipitation. The potential for a noteworthy spell of weather that can be mentioned in the same sentences as Dec 10, Jan 13, March 18 looks on the cards. I'm breathing a sigh of relief and putting the knitting needles away - for a short time doubt began to creep in as to whether synergy of pacific and strat would work out as all instincts and understanding suggested - but today all is clicking nicely. I wouldnt bother wondering or asking where it will snow for a good while yet - but with a bit of luck and a half decent roll of the synoptic dice we can get at least one solid front to cross the country to give everyone a shot, and plenty of convective action pushing inland. Window of opportunity from Friday next week - but probably midway through the following week for maximum chances. And dont expect this pattern to return anywhere close to mild (or even average) for a while. For a little bit we can afford to put the teleconnective charts away and forget macroscale pattern drivers, and instead enjoy a bit of fax chart scrutiny, weather radar updates and even some lamp post action. Lovely.

New EC weeks 3 and 4 as you were. High pressure in all the right places.

Blocking features are not necessarily Greenland Highs. Within the context of a deep cold trough across NW Eurpe, you don't need strong blocking features. These are however still potentially on the table for the week 3 period, and would represent the icing on the cake. We go below average on the 16th, and remain there after.

And yet, 10 days ago, this ECM chart was being 'boomed' left right and centre, with the GFS apparently playing catchup / incorrect for whatever reason at that point too. The GFS at that time was way closer to where we've ended up though.. I'm not saying that because of this the ECM is rubbish and the GFS great, and the model scores certainly don't have the GFS beating the ECM or Meto right now, but just ignoring a major model which albeit behind isn't stupidly behind, is as worthless an exercise as taking any run from any model as gospel.

Extended EPS T2s and T850s dipping at the very end of the run, which would be against model bias to drift back to climatology. I'm struck at the moment by the Scandinavian trough and daughter vortex over Canada. Perfect mirroring of the stratospheric pattern. This is a clear influence which does not fit troposheric drivers. Between the two features, uncertainty abounds, but you can't escape the model trend for deep cold uppers forecast within the Canadian vortex. That should, against other signals, continue to remove the Greenland High option. I think more +ve height anomalies and a more likely mid Atlantic ridge rebuilding but not necessarily Greenland Highs are of the order, and tonight's EC run will be viewed with interest - there could well be a very slow downwell of the stronger -U wind anomalies from the warming to come which might be the trigger, although I'd like to see some more NAM plots to get a proper handle on this. The tropical wave signal is moving extremely fast. By week 3, we could well be back to Dateline convection and Eastern Pacific. Again, good signal for sustained cold. Other features catching my eye: the deeply negative state of the Arctic Oscillation (not unexpected for the second half of the winter); and, related to this, the ridge extending into the Arctic from Alaska modelled to break off and move towards Siberian sector. With the clockwise rotation developing in the Arctic lower tropospheric flow, this shows signs of moving towards Svalbard by month's end. With the European trough embedded, that makes for some interesting permutations for February.

I actually think that is a reasonable question. It would be good if folk who post charts where no model or date is shown on the chart kindly provide this info in their post. Please.

Not sure what all that business days 6-10 was all about on the 12z GFS, but UKM and GEM advertising well the early stage development of the cold pattern. GFS does show loaded potential days 8 onwards with shallow long wave troughs running through the southern tier of the US off the Eastern Pacific. Their interaction with the polar trough once again bringing about significant downstream (cold) ramifications for NW Europe in the extended, as per ensemble broad ensemble guidance. FWIW and purely for fun, days 16-20 on the GFS op would be a redux of 1987.

Can we open an IMBY 1 please.. The very annoying...we'll get snow at my house nonsense has already begun!.. C, mon- its gonna come down 2 microscale...as per on our maritime island..with the slightest tweak/adjust..having massive ramifications.... Gets my goat something bad!!!!

And relax

We need to get rid of the GFS. Its entertainment factor is of course what it says 'entertaining' but it offers little real value. 5 pages on from this morning & pretty much ( with a few exceptions ) all thoughts / forecasts & rationale based on the GFS 06z suite. Jeez talk about build your house on a plate of Jelly....

I think you need to go & reread what these posters are writing... The protracted next cold spell starts end of days 6 for Scotland.. (16th) Into Day 7 for England. Then as the cold becomes entrenched we are looking at the jet axis to see where the atlantic will slide across the UK That may mean a temporary warm up ( for the SW & Ireland ( Maybe even the south ) however essentially day 6 is the start point with more emphasis on deep cold from day 9- That interim period 7-9 could be quite Snowy for some...

They have been bloody consistent ..... week 6 is now week 2/3................

The fact that UKMO cold starts @144 ( on the 12z ) is already now T132/138- The ECM is probably slower-by about 6 hours. The credible forecast is the cold spell to start from that day ( Weds ) - & as time progresses the cold works its way further south -the slider is the biggest risk of initial snow but also poses a problem in terms of how fast east a temporary flow from the atlantic slides in- So the blended forecast which is credible given its derived from the UKMO/EC blend is exactly above - The GFS whilst a bit flatter has suddenly moved to the euros - which invariably means it will follow them fully in the next 24/48 hours... As it stands then - cold arriving from the now 138, snow potential about 150 onwards..

My my, what an optimistic start to the day, for a change! Hopefully, within the next couple of days or so, wintry charts will start to appear more generally before Day 10? I can't wait! PS: Being both autistic and a SAD-sufferer, early optimism kinda makes my day!

The signal that has been most noticeable today is not the model output, it's the nature of posts in here, a subtle shift from posting insane cold charts in deep FI from the ensembles and also the ops (when they have delivered them), to charts that are more sober but are actually in or nearly in the reliable. The fallout from the SSW is expected to be prolonged. GloSea5 has it affecting the trop pattern into April, as evidenced from that Met Office video posted the other day. The main ask from a coldie's perspective therefore is that we have a seat at the table to benefit from the increased likelihood of cold impacting mid-latitudes during the period from next week to April. What we don't want is the blocking setting up in a catastrophic place for the UK such that we get locked out e.g. strong west-based negative NAO for one such setup. With today's runs the balance of probability shifts towards the former i.e. that we are in the game, with wedges, sliders and Atlantic ridging in play. So if it was 70% chance when the SSW happened, today's 12z output moves it today to about 90% chance, I'd suggest. Just GFS failing to go with the consensus at T144, and that should change. To be clear, that's not 90% chance of a six week mega freeze or anything, just being in the right position to benefit from the higher likelihood of cold snaps or spells that will arise as a result of the SSW. And that is a good place to be. I hope that by 20 Jan, the discussion in here will be less about GFS, FV3 and the ensembles, but about ARPEGE, about HIRLAM, and about where snow will fall!

Agree with this Nick, although it's noticeable how much sub-tropical flow we get into the SW Atlantic through days 5-12 which is in line with tropical forcing signals. That, allied to the Euro trough gives a strong below average signal for us care of repeated ridge building in the Atlantic. If we get the cold entrenched, these become self reinforcing for cold. The impacts of the SSW this time are a lot more nuanced and subtle, but they're clearly having a big impact in the pattern.

Yukon and eastern Alaska can be considered one climatic zone along with the Mackenzie valley of the NWT of Canada, and extreme northeast B.C. and northern Alberta. This tends to be a hit or miss area for severe winter cold, although readings between -10 and -25 C are normal up there. The latitude of this climate zone ranges from 59 N to 66 N about equivalent to northern Scotland to central Norway. When it does turn extremely cold there, it is usually because high pressure from northeast Siberia has ridged across the Bering Strait into Alaska. Typically the high pressure areas will be slow to move and will eject numerous bubble highs that join arctic highs that form over the southern arctic islands of Canada and in tandem these move south, but when that mechanism breaks down the very cold air can be released across the polar region by ridges that develop over the Beaufort Sea region and begin to extend across towards Franz Josef Land or Svalbard. Those highs then detach and sometimes move further southwest into northern Scandinavia which is the best place for high pressure to promote UK cold spells (although anywhere from Greenland to Russia can work). If the trans-polar connection fails, there is also the chance that severe cold linked from eastern Siberia to northwest Canada could retrograde as one large unit from there to northern Russia, the Urals into the White Sea region. This is partly what happened to reinforce the 1947 cold spell (which was well set up long before it overwhelmed the British Isles). The extreme cold showed up in Yukon around mid-January and intensified to all-time record low values in the last few days of the month and into early February. Readings below -60 C were noted near the Yukon-Alaska border on both sides. Whitehorse fell to -52 C its coldest reading on record (1971 managed -47). This severe cold eased rapidly and it was very mild there by mid-February 1947 (above freezing). Last winter the coldest spell was 1 to 12 February, showing that the lag time was about 26 days to onset of the very cold spell in Britain. So we can hope the connection gets made a bit faster this winter (the cold spell started about a week ago, so reduce the analogy to 19 days). Similar lag times existed in 2013 for both the January and March cold spells (the Jan 2013 case shows up in mid to late December of 2012). Winters from 2014 to 2017 were generally not very cold in the Yukon (Pacific mild air streams in during milder spells and temperatures are almost as mild as you would find in similar latitudes of Norway). I did find several examples of winters with severe Yukon cold (e.g. 1966, 1971) where the cold link seemed to work more for central and eastern North America, so perhaps there are two varieties of setups that promote this regional cold, which seems to be prominent in about one-fifth of winters (similar to the UK ratio I presented earlier). Also I found that cold in 1981-82 was achieved simultaneously so hard to say there was a transfer there. Maybe the Dec 81 Yukon cold fed into the Jan 82 UK cold, then the Jan 82 Yukon cold fed the later cold regime for North America which was deepest in late Jan and early Feb. There is no easy 1:1 teleconnection available from this, but I think in this instance with the pole looking like a transfer point, getting extreme cold into regions that are close to the pole is a good thing, it won't just be mild Pacific air streaming across ice fields and back into temperate latitudes (although that might be good enough to get the job done -- 1947 may have been exceptional because of this severe cold relative to normal in source regions).

Yes, remember this trend in ensembles (all major modelling has this) is against what the models will be inclined to do the further one ventures. FWIW, I'm seeing opportunity for +AAM tendency week 3, which would suggest impending further hemispheric amplification transposed onto a pattern that's already pretty amplified (Wave number 4).

Debilt T2Ms looking colder & colder now control run must be Easterly- @bluearmy

Okay since the age old debate of eCM and GFS has come up again let's have some unscientific fun. Here is tomorrow's chart for comparison. Here is what the 12z ECM showed for tomorrow from the New Year (10 days out) up to 5 days out. And 12z GFS runs for the same time period Now here are my thoughts (and yes people will have different ideas about important criteria but for me this are the main ones when attempting to forecast our weather patterns) Obviously most of this is subjective but looking at the main areas of interest Atlantic heights, Polar profile, European/Scandi heights and general 500hpa pressure profile here is how I see things. 10 days out ECM very poor in the Atlantic region, better in the polar region but hopelessly optimistic with undercut and amplification GFS not great but better than ECM Atlantic, fairly poor in polar region, much more realistic with upper flow and lack of undercut Verdict GFS win by stoppage. 9 Days out ECM Very poor in Atlantic region, Polar region good to see Arctic high but otherwise average, seeing European trough but overdoing it - actually had us in a continental flow with the South under -8 850's GFS Very decent effort in Atlantic region, fairly poor in Polar region, better alignment of the tough in Europe, no optimistic continental flow. Verdict GFS win by points 8 days out. ECM Decent in Atlantic region, actually less good in polar region, a little better over Europe still too optimistic with trough and had the SE under -6 850's GFS Good in the Atlantic region, still poorish int he polar region, similar to ECM in over optimistic continental flow for South but had it a bit further South than ECM Verdict GFS win on technicality. 7 Days out ECM Very good in the Atlantic region, very good in Polar region, Very good placement of Euro trough (Merit award) GFS Very good Atlantic region, decent effort Polar region, decent effort Euro trough but not on level as ECM Verdict ECM win on points 6 Days out ECM Almost perfect Atlantic region, almost perfect polar region, almost perfect Euro region (Top marks, Gold star) GFS Almost perfect Atlantic region, Decent polar region, Very poor handling of Euro trough Verdict ECM win by knockout. I just chose the 12z output at random, somebody might like to try the same with the 00z output and see how that fared. This is really just a bit of fun and banter but for me it does show what I have always believed. That GFS is very good at working out the general longwave pattern in FI despite sometimes being too progressive while ECM is far too optimistic with splitting energy and amplification if the potential exists. However, as we get closer things begin to reverse with ECM rapidly increasing accuracy while the GFS can tend to flail around until we get to day 7 and less where the ECM is always clear choice. One more caveat, the models may behave better or worse depending on the atmospheric state and complexities of the pattern they are trying to resolve. Please have fun with this and don't use it to bash me and other forum members over the head with, it is not the model gospel, it's just an opinion on some randomly plucked output!

People are free to discuss whatever model they want to discuss, that's why it's called the model discussion. Out of all the 'big' models, only the GFS has updated since 09:30 so there's going to be a lean towards GFS discussion.

It’s the 10th jan and we are talking about dew points for 20th jan....really?

Sorry but very misleading for newbies some charts below from day 6 7 8 courtesy from EC & FV3.

Drip-drip-..@propagation @downwelling. The dough has been kneaded- the bread being baked!!.. Trop/layer responces everything..EVERYTHING falling into place.. Like a horse 10 lengths clear 1 furlong out.. gefs_ensemblemean_wafz_2019010700.webp figure1_01072019.webp

Been out most of the eve- missed all the ECM fun- Great 168 Mean tonight

Its just a passion, apologies if im annoying..

I think the above discussion has gone far enough so can we please move on. It's derailing the thread. Any more posts on the matter will likely disappear. Thanks.

Much bette polar profile on this ec op with a route to proper cold clearly evident later on

Moving on briefly from the short range. By midweek a much more fluid west > east pattern emerging with the phasing of the colder/warmer air and frontal systems traversing the country. Thus windy at times with periods of rain, snow on norther hills,interspersed with sunny intervals

The GEFS 6z screams wintry potential in the mid and especially the longer term with a growing chance of snow..and not just in the north and on hills..overall, I think there is a strengthening signal for an exciting period of wintry weather which is not far away..I can't wait!!

GEFS 06z this was along the lines of my thoughts going forward that I posted the other day lows going NW - SE then attention turning to the blocking ensembles GEM 0z ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 0z I found our best from the east lurking... ensemble NAEFS 0z what a fascinating spell of weather the rest of January and possibly beyond looks like being (we could soon be overwhelmed by the amount of @feb1991blizzard stonking charts )

Wowsers. I certainly left the best to view to last! That is some run. We don't get to see Op charts like this very often, in FI or otherwise... Stunning

You're not annoying mate most of us in here are snow nuts, that's why we come back day after day, hour after hour. Let's hope we ALL get what we're after soon enough.

ECM 12z ensembles summaries are in - London reaches close to minus 5 mean uppers by 17th and then pretty much flatlines around minus 5 all the way to the 25th. That's cold. https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperatur850

now that’s better ....... more separation between systems and less intensity as a result equals more chance of disruption and sliding

Solid 12z suite UKMO / ICON portray similar evoltutions which by coincidence is replicatwd & run through by the GEM- very cold from day 6> onwards high snow potential similar to 2013 thereafter day 8 The steering wedge over SE iceland playing its key role GFS fairly inconsistent V the rest...

You’d be able to build a wall with all that money .......

Diving lows (well placed for the uk to stay on the cold side ) and a developing scandi high ... quite plausible

The irony is the express won’t sell any papers because nobody can get to the shops!! Ha Ha, how do ya like them apples

I know people moan about that high pressure cell and yes the bloody thing has been a nuiscance at times but were it not there the zonal train may have been powering through, this high pressure eventually could pay serious dividend to us just requires patience. Called me stupid but I’ve seen the phrase zonal reset used on here before and I HATE it, as someone said above it’s a case of be careful what you wish for, if the high is far enough west it can go from zero to hero

What happens in the Blue Oyster Bar stays in the Blue Oyster Bar.

This 4 me still imo-firm opinion.. The favoured/likely throw... I'll be looking latter frame ecm 192+hrs..for more notable signs.... For a sharper more defined cut of atlantic wedging into the pole... And ultimately..pacific/polar height link!!!.. Im steadfast with this !!!! gensnh-8-1-312.webp gensnh-8-1-312 (1).webp

The GEFS at 144 don’t look to bad but are not really screaming UKMO style solution . By 174 they do quickly improve though and the mean is actually really good. By day 8 things are really looking good. There are others. Next Friday looks full of potential on the majority.

T180: Three jet streaks in play across the North Atlantic. Ridge number 1 there beneath the poleward streak. T222: Trough carving through Texas, next amplification coming through

Yes, have been a little concerned by the gaining strength and depth of the Canadian tropospheric vortex, some pretty deep cold/low thicknesses developing there in the models, and could be a spanner in the works in further delaying high latitude blocking forming to our north because of the predisposition of low heights to our NW. Mirrored by the stronger daughter stratospheric vortex 9 days away So I agree, could be more difficult to get the Greenland height rises, so perhaps we may need to look at getting some form of height rises/pressure build to the NE if likely amplification induced by MJO wave working through later in the month allows. So, although there is potential still for mid-Atlantic / Greenland height rises, this potential looks less likely or delayed unless the models are over doing the Canadian Vortex. But could still see sufficient temporary high pressure 'wedges' through late January to allow some cold and snowy snaps and I still think that blocking will become more prominent as we start February, given the eventual weakening of the tropospheric vortices and tendency for easterly winds in the lower stratosphere to start to impact the troposphere at high latitudes.

Yes the anomaly charts ( I use) are still not totally of the same 'mind' so to speak, two with mid Atlantic ridging into a trough over Europe the third still with a flatter Atlantic flow. So still not able, out to 10 days, to show a definite change of pattern. The chart 8-14 NOAA, shown by k, does suggest this is more likely beyond day 10, the second day/evening it has shown this. So some increasing confidence that a more meridional pattern is going to be getting established by 2 weeks from now.

Hurricane of snow feet of snow all snow FV3.

I posted this table over in banter and perhaps a lot of more serious onlookers don't go in there, so as it's not really banter I am taking the liberty of posting it here also. Basically it's a summary of all major cold spells in the daily records of the CET from 1772 on (the first one caught being 1776, and there must have been some stonkers before 1772 but we have no way of knowing the daily details of them, 1740, 1684 and 1709 for example must have produced long cold spells. The bottom line is that one fifth of all winters have produced a cold spell of at least ten days (where the mean daily temperature stayed below 0.0). A few others produced ones that failed that test but were very significant (eight or nine very cold days, or just being a bit too late into March and getting the inevitable daytime boost). Also what this table reveals is that one cluster of cold spells started on dates in late December and early January, with another cluster preferring February. There was a bit of a half-time phenomenon in late January. However, I did note that some of the major February cold spells had a good start in that period of late January and just failed to attach by one or two days getting briefly above zero. I'm sure you would experience the 1947 cold spell as starting 24th January for example. But in the table it shows up later. So here's the table, I have reduced it to quite a small size to make the seasonal profile easier to see visually, but if you want to examine the details then go to a higher magnification. The table is arranged in order of duration of these cold spells and when several are tied, the mean temperature they achieved is used to sort them. Days _ Duration of Days 0.0 or lower ______________________________ Coldest ____ Average ______[] __DECEMBER__ [] __JANUARY__ [] _FEBRUARY_ [] __MARCH______ 32 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 27 Dec 1813 - 27 Jan 1814 ....................................... -- 6.7 ...... -- 3.2 26 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 7 Jan - 1 Feb 1776 ..............................................-- 7.5 ...... -- 3.0 22 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 5 - 26 Feb 1947..................-- 6.7 .... -- 2.5 **** 20 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 27 Jan 1881 .................................................. -- 8.1 ...... -- 4.6 20 ... ... ..(+12d see below) .. 7 - 26 Jan 1963 .................................................. --8.4 ...... -- 3.6 *** 18 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 6 - 23 Feb 1855 ................. -- 7.5 .... -- 3.7 18 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 26 Jan 1823 ................................................. -- 8.9 ...... -- 3.0 18 ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 26 Dec 1890 ........................................................................ -- 6.8 ...... -- 2.1 17 ... (very cold 31 Dec - 7 Jan).10-26 Jan 1795 ............................................. -- 8.9 ...... -- 4.0 15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 Dec 1870 - 4 Jan 1871 ............................................... -- 6.9 ...... -- 3.6 15... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10-24 Jan 1940 ...(+11d later) ......................... .. -- 7.1 ...... -- 3.3 15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 24 Dec 1892 - 7 Jan 1893 ....................................... ..... -- 5.0 ...... -- 3.3 15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 18 Jan - 1 Feb 1784 ................................ . -- 3.7 ...... -- 2.1 14 ... ... ... ... ...(+10d earlier) . 8 - 21 Jan 1838 ............................................. ... -- 11.9 ...... -- 5.1 14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 5-18 Feb 1895 .......................... -- 8.3 ...... -- 4.8** 14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3-16 Jan 1820 ................................................... ....... -- 8.5 ...... -- 3.6 14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 Jan - 3 Feb 1780 .......................... .... -- 3.6 ...... -- 1.0 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 26 Jan - 7 Feb 1954 ........................... -- 5.0 ...... -- 2.5 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17 - 29 Dec 1860 ........................................................ ........ -- 3.7 ...... -- 2.1^ 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-18 Feb 1986 .......................... ... -- 4.6 ...... -- 1.6 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 14 - 26 Feb 1956..................... -- 3.2 .... -- 1.6 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 29 Dec - 10 Jan 1811 ............................................. ... -- 3.6 ...... -- 1.5 12 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-17 Jan 1987 ................................................ ..... -- 7.7 ...... -- 2.6 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 23 Dec 1962 - 3 Jan 1963 .(plus 20d ^^).......................... -- 3.6 ...... -- 2.2 *** 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 18 - 29 Jan 1880 ......................................... ..... -- 4.3 ...... -- 2.1 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3 - 14 Feb 1991 ............................. ... -- 4.7 ...... -- 1.9 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 25 Dec 1853 - 5 Jan 1854 ........................................ ..... -- 5.0 ...... -- 1.8 12 ... ... ... 30 Nov - 11 Dec 1796 .......................................................................... ..... -- 4.7 ...... -- 1.8 12 ......... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17 - 28 Feb 1955 .......... -- 3.3 ... -- 1.7 11 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... .17 - 27 Dec 2010 ............................................................. ...... -- 7.0 ...... -- 3.9 11 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11 - 21 Jan 1867 ................................................. .... -- 5.0 ...... -- 2.9 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1 - 11 Feb 1917 ................................. ...... -- 7.2 ...... -- 2.8 * 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 19 Feb 1985 ........................ ... -- 4.1 ...... -- 2.7 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2-12 Jan 1879 ..................................................... ........ -- 4.8 ...... -- 2.3 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-16 Jan 1850 .............................................. ........ -- 2.8 ...... -- 1.4 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 25 Dec 1820 - 4 Jan 1821 ............................................ ........ -- 3.3 ...... -- 1.3 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11 - 21 Feb 1853....................... -- 3.2 ...... -- 1.2 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...(+15d earlier ^^) . 9 - 19 Feb 1940 .......................... --2.5 ....... --1.1 10 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-15 Jan 1982 ..................................................... .... --7.6 ...... -- 4.0 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 17 Jan 1826 .......................................... .............-- 6.9 ..... -- 3.7 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 20 - 29 Jan 1945 ............................ ........ -- 7.6 ...... -- 3.5 10 ... ... ... ... 5 - 14 Dec 1844 ................ .............................................................. ............-- 5.5 ...... -- 2.7 ... see below Mar 1845 10 ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 17 Dec 1878 ............................................................................. ......... -- 5.3 ...... -- 2.9^^ 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 16 - 25 Jan 1829 .................................. ....... -- 4.8 ...... -- 2.8 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 14 - 23 Jan 1809 .................................. ........ -- 5.1 ...... -- 2.4 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 24 Dec 1836 - 2 Jan 1837 ................................................ ........... -- 3.3 ...... -- 1.3 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...23 Dec 1837 - 1 Jan 1838 ..(+14d later) ............................. .......... -- 2.7 ...... -- 1.4 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 - 30 Jan 1917 .(1-11 Feb^)................. -- 1.8 ... -- 1.1 * __________________________________________________ ^ Most of the period 1-16 Jan 1861 was also subzero, the 31-day period 17 Dec 1860 to 16 Jan 1861 averaged -1.3 C. ^^ This cold spell extended from 7 to 26 Dec, 20 days in which the mean CET was --2.4 C. The interval 20-25 Dec was --3.7 C. * Except for +0.3 on 31 Jan 1917, a 22 day spell avg --1.8 C lasting 21 Jan to 11 Feb. ** A longer spell of 24 days with +0.4 as warmest, 26 Jan - 18 Feb 1895, avg --3.7 C. *** Although there were only two spells in winter 1962-63 that qualified for this list, note that the period of 35 days that includes the two, 23 Dec to 26 Jan, averaged -2.7 C and 70 days 22 Dec to 2 March averaged -- 1.5 C. **** The 45-day period 23 Jan to 8 Mar 1947 averaged --1.9 C. <<>> RECENT NEAR MISSES & EXPANSION OF 1986 FROM LIST <<>> 25 Nov to 4 Dec 2010 averaged -- 1.7 C and 25 Nov to 8 Dec averaged -- 1.7 C but these periods failed by a slight margin to make the list (25 Nov was +0.3 and 5 Dec was +0.4). The 26-day period from 6 Feb to 3 Mar 1986 averaged -- 1.2 C. The 15-day period from 5 to 19 Jan 1985 averaged --1.7 C. (11th not subzero so it has no ten-day interval) 1 to 10 Jan 2010 averaged --1.9 C but failed to make the list because 2 Jan was +0.3 C. 16 to 25 Jan 2013 averaged --0.9 C but failed to make the list because 24 Jan was +0.7 C. 8-26 Dec 1981 averaged -- 2.3 C. ___________________________________ honourable mention should be given to 11-20 March 1845, there were two days in that 10-day interval slightly above zero but the average so late in the season was --1.7 C and contains the coldest March day (-6.5 on 13th). Also, in terms of a sustained cold anomaly, 21 March to 1st April 2013 (12 days) had a mean of +1.2 C. 1785 was even colder at the same time of year, 13 days from 22 March to 3 April had an average of +0.8 C. In terms of early winter season sustained cold, the interval 11-16 Nov 1919 averaged --0.3 C. ________________________________ ANALYSIS of starting dates for 10-day or longer cold spells Of all the 51 spells (in 47 winters, roughly 19% of the years surveyed) including the later ones in March, but excluding those that just missed during the winter season, this is the frequency count for starting dates: xx Nov to 10 Dec __ 4 11 to 20 Dec ______ 2 21 to 31 Dec ______ 9 01 to 10 Jan ______13 11 to 20 Jan ______ 6 21 to 31 Jan ______ 3 01 to 10 Feb ______ 8 11 to 20 Feb ______ 3 21 Feb or later ____ 3 For whatever reason, there is a period from 21st January to start of February when these spells are less likely to commence. A second cluster then emerges around first week of February often lasting longer than 10 days. We have now reached the point in the winter when half of these significant cold spells had begun. The three-quarters point is around 8 February. Not that length is the only important point when comparing cold spells, last winter's late bloomer lasted about five days but "did the business" for snowfall and set a daily record on the 1st of March. Not all of the above set daily records, about two-thirds did (and sometimes quite a few, for example 1776 set five in a row). You will find examples of winters with a cold spell listed and some other memorable cold or snow outside that interval, for example, in Dec 1796 a later but shorter cold spell produced the coldest December day. February's coldest day in 1816 was embedded in a seven-day subzero stretch which was about a week after an earlier five day interval at end of January. The spell listed for 1956 is not the most memorable cold of that month, that happened in the first few days of February. But that spell only ran to five days. Will this winter join the list? If so, likely to be 23 January or so before it begins. The 1947 subzero cold spell began on 24th, the interval to 2nd averaged -1.7 but fell one day short of this list (and by 0.1 C on 23rd). Two days of 0.7 separated that from the main cold spell shown in the table and it then stayed very cold to about the 10th of March.

EC mean now has troughing into Europe by day 10..

EC is perfect! Just what we wanted to start seeing! Great start to the day. GFs pants, but looks lost in its suite. great start to the day. Happy Friday. Disappointing, just been told it’s Thursday. Of course it is, EC update tonight ?