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12 days of model watching! On the first day of Christmas my true love sent to me 1 sudden stratospheric warming 2 Ramps from Knocker 3 weeks of snow 4 GP torpedoes 5 Murr sausages 6 Ice days 7 Quick trop responses 8 hoar frosts 9 Gritters gritting 10 Greenland high pressures 11 people sniping 12 Days of model fatigue A big thanks to all the regular posters for making this the worlds best weather forum and wish you all a happy Christmas and prosperous New year!

Or... just don’t bother coming on here at all if every single one of your fleeting visits to the forum is to moan?

good day to all my fellow posters on this very interesting forum , probably the best top weather forum on this planet .I have very good friends in Canada [ just north of Toronto ) They emigrated back in the mid 1970 s and my late wifes very best friend as worked in the weather business but now retired .I have had the pleasure on many occasions to visit weather centres in Canada and in this country ,especially when i was a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society ,but now demoted as i stopped paying my dues 5 yrs ago .The point is ,looking 5 days ahead with modern technology is prone to mistakes ,looking 7 days ahead is a head ache ,10 DAYS AHEAD , A BIT OF A HEAD BANGER .And us Snow lovers are trying to predict what will be happening beyond that .As i type i expect the latest Met office outlook is ready to go on line ,for me personally i follow this ,but only out to about 15 days , i always look at the ECM up to 7 days ,so as of now i do think better cold weather charts are just around the corner . with the SSW going on its going to be hard for any forecast model to get to grips with forecasts charts in our Neck of the woods .On about woods i have been up the wood shed this morning early ,had a good conversation with myself , checked on the local wild life and came to the conclusion that a big upgrade is a coming ,even the local squirrels are collecting peoples recycling ,two more squirrels seen wearing scarves up the woods today .Right gang ,must start preparing for tomorrows food ,i have my two boys coming plus grand daughter and a friend of mine ,also the dog ,i will be regularly popping in to this forum ,happy Christmas to all STellas all round ,enjoy ..

I am sure all on here feel for your losses, it does put watching the weather into its correct perspective. I just hope you are able to relax and feel some comfort where you are staying. Take care John x

Ok, It's Christmas Eve.. The team will not tolerate posts that create knee jerk reactions and de-rail the thread. So please think about what your posting before clicking submit or posts will end up dissapering. The festive season is upon us so let's all get on and enjoy the discussions in a friendly manner on what is currently quite fascinating Model watching on offer over the Christmas period, Which couldn't come at a better time...

Not sure if the 30 mb Pole temperature will bring the cold, it just might. Now on its way back tto the average line. Anyway greater minds than mine can tell you if the cold will arrive in early/mid January! I still reckon this link suggests a 50% chance it will. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ Anyway to everyone hope you are able to have a Happy Christmas and good health in 2019.

Well it's here again, that big day When we dream of ice and snow to play The fun, the games, no shop can sell Of sledging and skating on snow that fell Santa will you come, make dreams come true? Give us snow to play 'til our fingers turn blue We've been good, I promise, no naughty deeds So just for once, will you fulfil our needs? Of snow so deep and crisp and white, When we open our curtains, oh what a sight! Why this obsession, with white fluffy flakes? Why the dreams of snow when all awakes? It's a time for peace, goodwill to all men A time to remember when we were ten We want magic and joy, free to have fun Of rain, mist and fog, we want none It's Christmas Santa, your time to shine We want to believe so give us a sign That you listen and care, want dreams to come true I've asked time and again, I'm sure that you knew That all we want, all that we need Is for you to be kind, just this one deed We know it's too cold for rain up above And every flake is an Angel's kiss of love So at this time of year, surely you must Defy all the odds, prove the models are bust And grant us our wishes, make dreams come true Give us snow to play, 'til our fingers turn blue Merry Christmas my fellow snow freaks, hope you all have a good one.

Merry christmas...1-an, all. Dont forget the models are as many of us will be over coming days...wobbling about-clueless.. And charged with non-dedirable!!. Luck and health to all. see you in a few days....

Something is brewing....something perhaps not easily seen right now from NWP operational output. Take a look at the extremity of the most recent mountain torque atmospheric deceleration: Temporarily down to -4SD...with all torques hammering low. In layman's terms what this does as you can see from the negative tendency around 30N is enhance net easterlies and prop up the mid latitude high - and we have our UK mid lat high. So what happens next? With GLAAM tumbling there has to be a counter in the wings as earth and atmosphere continue their ongoing attempt to have earth and atmospheric momentum balance out at 0. Torques prevent this from ever happening for long - and as the atmosphere has slowed at 30N it for sure will come bouncing back up, and on schedule as per previous posts. We can expect to see a rally in MT in the next few days - and perhaps another strong one. We have seen plenty of steep gradients this season. So - imagine a burst of westerly momentum sent through the pacific and on into the Atlantic with our block sat where it is...and now factor in the ongoing pressure on the strat and increasing likelihood of a split. As momentum comes into the atlantic I can see only one impact - and this is the bouncing of this high pressure anomaly up to a higher latitude. And with the vortex collapse imminent this then becomes a pattern that will take some shifting - the block may wax and wane through much of January, but it will become a semi permanent feature. How quickly the vortex recovers (if at all) will determine specific longevity...but as said before: baby steps. Let's see what actually happens to the vortex before getting too excited (at least publicly...…..) And so pacific forcing, with the MJO moving towards phase 6-7-8, set to give a tropospheric lead to the pattern before stratospheric reinforcements arrive. Don't be seduced by the current bland holding pattern. Last week the pacific failed to produce a high lat block in a nearly scenario from the last MT spike - but we were dealing with a deep trough to the west that was unable to progress east. It is a very different atlantic profile developing now, and the impact looks set to be much more predictable. Provided there is an active pacific background signal and a strat under stress there is nothing at all wrong with a growing UK/Euro high...but a little more patience required. Look for the block to begin to extend north as stage 1. Stage 2 will be invigoration of the Euro trough that will replace it - and if the strat splits as the EC is seeing it then expect it to be a vigorous undercut. Downwelling impacts 1 - 3 weeks...so core of the cold potential continues to be weeks 2 - 4 of January. Anything beyond that in the timeline will depend on how badly the vortex gets beaten up and caution required on predicting that. Very exciting times ahead....

Deep cold moving South through Scandi must be the missing data

This is not the limpet Euro high reinforced by a Nina pattern, strong vortex and low pacific activity that some posters earlier today seem to think it is. Totally different beast. The problem with NWP output is that it only shows the effect and not the causes.....and unless we try and understand the causes we cannot really see the path ahead. Try not to pay much attention to those who simply paste a chart without an explanation or any obvious understanding. An examination of causation - and every reason to be optimistic continues. I'm still disappointed by what happened last week - had that trough cleared off to the east I think our mid lat UK high would have built higher and more to the west and we would be cooling down now. It was a close run thing - but it was only the starter with the main course very much to come and not negatively impacted at all by the current holding phase.

If ever there was a time to have bland weather, it's while we all have the happy distraction of Christmas so let's all switch off and enjoy time with those important to us and let the weather "cook" whilst we enjoy the season. Then we can come back in the NY with some hopefully more idea about the results of the SSW and maybe a lovely "cooked feast" to enjoy mid Jan! Happy Christmas everyone and thank you for all the knowledge and fun banter you share on here year after year!!!xx

Its more like spring where i am! Sitting in a hot tub next to the lake in Lincolnshire. Sure, one of the reasons i choose here was the hype of a white christmas. But the main reason was to find some solitude after an horrendous year which resulted in my son losing a leg in a motorbike accident, then my eldest son dying in july. I love the weather as much as the next person on here. But please people, it is just weather. Don't allow it to take over your lives. Snow will come back again one day. My son never will. Now! Enjoy your christmas's. Be happy. Be patient. And stop arguing!

Trying to inject a touch of positive feeling in this thread, this is the Net Wx comparison charts for GFS-ECMWF, 00z and 12z, https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/model-comparison Notice how the EC version for 00z almost looks like it has seen the 30 mb temperature guide! Also don't forget what I say every year. At such time scales STOP comparing run to run and check the same output so T+240 today and T+192 tomorrow etc, down to 144-168 then run to run if you want to.

WOW, someone needs a bowl of Christmas cheer!!

It’s the 24th today,so that’s why nothing is showing on the main models. So your going to ignore the expert advice from the knowledgeable posters here and the professionals at the meto and other organisations that talk about a high chance of much colder weather in January. Sounds like the generation we have now that want everything instantly,can’t wait for anything

We MUST see this, we MUST see that, the xxx update is so important this time or we will have to wait until February etc etc. Sorry, what? Everything will look look different in a week and it still won’t even be January yet. A stratospheric warming (nailed on and underway) will hold in store many surprises to follow, things that the models haven’t come close to fathoming out. Chill, be happy and stop lurching from one extreme to the other over specific aspects of stratospheric chart outputs, the greater picture is still in sight from what I can see. And even if the GFS has got this 100% right, it still will be a decent strat event with likely repercussions for the mid latitudes in terms of a cold spell for many. Far too much 2 + 2 = 4 on here at the moment. We all should know by now that it doesn’t work like that at times like this. Worth reminding ourselves of what happened in late Feb/early March this year. As mad as that late winter ‘18 spell was, once underway it could have been so much better. It really was a case of the forcings being being too extreme and everything being thrown into high speed reverse. The HL blocking would normally have stopped over Greenland and given an extension to the cold but it just carried on accelerating away west all the way to Canada. This left us open to the Atlantic and the rest is history. Bigger isn’t always better! .

Xmas can be a stressful time,made more so on here with missing plane and balloon data.Being the season of goodwill I have taken the following action.Earlier today,i purchased 500 balloons from Asda,using 25 per bunch,tied with festive string,gave me 20 sets,6 have been weighted just to float,7 have a B AND Q Orange bucket attached,the last seven having an Aldi thermometer on board.My report will go as follows....if the 6 balloons are never seen again,its ruddy windy,if the buckets bring the balloons down full of water its been hissing down with rain,finally if the rumour is true that cold air or water can make things shrink,its really cold,if the balloons explode its because very hot air has expanded them,as for planes,short supply,most are at Gatwick,anyone suggesting drones can get knotted SO ive done my bit to ease tension on here.................Happy Xmas one and all.

Searching Twitter for strat expert analysis to calm the nerves but can’t find anything..... no news is good news right...

Just another 13 hours or so until we can tell the moaners it’s irrelevant, the ooor charts are all down to missing data It beggars belief in here sometimes it really does. ? Have a good Christmas everyone, be merry & jolly! I’ve got a date with the pub and a flashing Christmas jumper!

Is it realism or just plain pessimistic and dull? Why don’t you put forward exactly why YOU don’t think the strat event will bear fruit. Just basing it on your gloomy predisposition doesn’t count btw. I look forward to your extensive analysis...

EC at 10hpa from yesterday look good! U wind reversal goes negative all the way to D10 -10.0m/s ECM remains solid.

I'm not sure "let's just cancel winter altogether" constitutes realism. The model output isn't great but perhaps an analysis of it would be better placed in one of the other threads? People are here to look for cold, that's the point of it and while the tropospheric modelling doesn't look great the model output in the stratosphere shows much to be hopeful about further down the line. The consequences of events in the strat are not a gaurantee of cold weather for us but there are many examples of when events such as we are seeing happening right now have been a precursor to cold. Looking at those hopeful signs and trying to work out how and when they could affect is is all part of hunt for cold.

No hunt for cold in Sweden. Their coldest day of the winter so far. Pictures from my daughters family place about 1 hours drive north of Stockholm. C

And, at the end of the day, if the Beast has been merely postponed to mid Jan (and not done away with altogether) none of the models has a snowflake's chance in Hell of picking it up, anyway... Keep the faith. And Merry Christmas to all!

I agree with you on this, as amply illustrated by the quote below... With any SSW only really occurring late Dec, realistically the most likely time for it to have an effect, if it does, was always going to be mid Jan. That's well outside the range of any of the trop models most of us have access to. If you are coming here at this stage expecting to see MAJOR changes then you are setting yourself up to be disappointed. Anything happening prior to that will be a bonus, as has been repeatedly stated by posters much more knowledgeable than me.

A lot of doom in here today. It’s Christmas Eve and I think it’s best to focus on festivities and s*d the weather/winter for a few days!

Morning all First, Christmas greetings to all fans of cold and snow (and presumably frost as well). It looks very anticyclonic to end 2018 and start 2019 - the first push of HP will retreat slightly but the second push from Iberia looks much stronger and will create an MLB centred over or perhaps just to the west of the UK at New Year and just after. We could hopefully see some nice inversion under the anticyclone so some cold for many. It does look as though (and the MetO forecast suggests this) we'll get another short-lived Atlantic push after that before (hopefully) we start seeing something more interesting. so yes, we might have to wait three weeks before we get the wintry nirvana for which we are all hoping (in this thread at any rate). One route might be for the HP to pull far enough west to allow the Arctic trough to drop down over north west Europe - shades of December 2010. The GFS continues to frustrate with its strat forecast but we are seeing a significant warming event now and what comes out the other side will be a much warmer and weakened PV which can only bode well.

Does the JMA overdo strat warmings? T6, now! Warmer up there than it is down here! And by T264, the vortex looks finished! So much volatility at the moment, will take a few days before the models have got the hang of this SSW, and then we may be see some boom charts!

I came back on here tonight hoping to see some positivity. (I shouldn't really, I've been here long enough to know how it works), yet we are in the midst of a December SSW, a very rare beast. It could and should, give us the winter we've been waiting for, for years. It might not... however, we are in the best position we've been in for years. The models are struggling with an outcome and it's a fact that an SSW will play havoc with numerical weather prediction. We (My family) are losing our home on the 7th January. We will be ok somehow. One of our Netweather members has just been given the all clear from cancer. Is it really worth any animosity over the weather? Something which is out of our control? It's Christmas eve tomorrow, real winter weather is coming (allegedly at some point...) Just enjoy the hunt for cold and have a merry Christmas....

With all due respect - there's some misinterpretation here. In short - current tropical forcing is linked to the massive wave-1 warming hitting the polar vortex as I type this. Tropical forcing next week increasingly supports wave-2 patterns and with one of the poleward ridges in the mid-Atlantic, so that should lead to improvements in our own weather prospects (probably nothing exceptional but some snow chances starting to manifest). Unclear if SSW will add a negative AO adjustment on top of this. The week after, tropical forcing becomes most optimal for bringing cold weather patterns to the UK, and the split-SSW impacts may be joining forces with that. Worth noting that the SSW is more of a 'potential enhancer' than the deal-maker in this light. That being a message I wish to stress to all of the NW community.

Can't really add too much that hasn't been explained brilliantly by Catacol. Just want to highlight this though; though the ops are pretty bland in nature out into FI, it's worth noting what is not forecast but is actually occurring NOW: The stratospheric vortex is taking an almighty beating as we speak...I mean, that above chart is a thing of beauty. Wherever we go from here, it will be fascinating seeing the response to this at the tropospheric level over the coming weeks...

so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Jan. ( perfect ) Standard Propergation time is 10 - 14 days - however the QTR can arrive from onset & throughout propergation time depending on where the split is. So High lattitude blocking to develop 'possibly' from 1st Jan - 10th & high probability 10th onwards- I think the cold will hit the UK from the transitioning AO somewhere day 5-6 as the split looks condusive to a +PNA & Altlantic ridge scenario- s

Too much stirring and sniping this morning leading to off topic posts. Let’s see if we can get through the rest of the day without having to remove posts! Season of goodwill etc.

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is.

Even though all models are now forecasting an impressive zonal wind drop off and upper/mid strat warming, to varying degrees, it often takes for the event to be WELL underway before the models start to latch on properly with regards to the tropospheric effects. Just because they are forecasting these stratospheric events, doesn’t mean they know how to (any way near) accurately forecast what the effects will be on the ground. I’d like to think it is improving but such are the scarcities of these type of events, the understanding gained will be minimal and only apply in that particular set of circumstances, a set of exact parameters that will never occur again. Analogues have their uses but it only takes one driver to wax or wane a fraction and a tipping point is reached (or not), the path could change immeasurably. Good luck with that one! Expect big changes very soon on the charts, whether we get plunged into a cold nirvana, have to sit and watch as the high is sucked up TOO far NW or we see the cold cascade down to Greece and on to Morocco instead, we don’t yet know. But one thing I struggle to see is a stagnant slug of a high as even being an option on the table. I suspect there will be a few bites at the cherry as well. This is a good time, let’s enjoy the ride.

ditto

Yes to the EAMT - finish up the vortex for good? Wouldn't want to get drawn on that yet - our ability to be precise on major strat events is not clear and EC / GFS are not yet in agreement on the split itself let alone the trajectory of any daughter vortices....but looking at the severity of the warming forecast and knowing the higher resolution of the EC forecast then it is becoming increasingly likely a split will occur. Speed of impacts unclear - but given tropospheric lead I think it will be swift. And could it last longer than the 3 week "minimum" window? I'd say yes. Impacts could sustain out beyond 30 days. Could.

Decent enough 18z. Full of, dare I say, ‘potential’? Anyway, a very happy Christmas to you all!!

Whatever the weather, hope you all have a very Merry Christmas! PS: Sorry this is off topic Mods, but I hope you can allow this festive post.

Hi all on a festive eve the latest outlook from cpc 6-10/8-14 days shows no shift from previous days with hp cell forecasted to ancher over the BI,a holding pattern for the foreseeable with perhaps fog and frost at night under clear conditions but pleasant in the light winds where/if the sun breaks out during the day,lovely for getting out and about to see relatives/friends and to walk off those festive dinners,lovely so,ok we will probably have to endure some beniegn/non discript weather but lets be patient and see what happens,surely enough we will get a cold spell soon enough here is a toast from me to all the netweather team and members and i wish you all a merry Christmas and a prosperous new year see you soon peeps and enjoy what ever the weather,and hope we see plenty of MERRY CHRISTMAS

Research analogues suggest coldest portion of the winter would be 15-20 Jan, which is 22 to 27 days away, or 6 to 11 days past end of GFS run. So I'm not very concerned about slow evolution, in fact would expect it to be rather slow until perhaps 5 to 10 Jan at earliest. Looking at years that had mild first five days of January followed by generally cold weather include some pretty decent cases including 1855, 1881 and 1917. I wouldn't even open the pessimism file until about 10th of January no matter what shows up in the near term. 1895 and 1947 were among the top winters that did almost all their business after mid-January too.

ECM output = zzzzzzz! Most of the PV moves to the ne but the lobe of death gets left behind in ne Canada ! The GFS evolution has no support from the other outputs , looks like the coma inducing outputs continue .

The thing with all these SSW forecasts is until they happen no one knows how that will effect the weather in Europe . Theres a lot of supposition . Best to keep an open mind .

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational in high res i was in danger of dying from boredom but then low res arrived!..at last some action!!..merry christmas all..ps..rudolf may struggle tonight with the expected fog across eastern areas!!

The models are going to flip to cold over the Xmas period and I guarantee the moaners will highlight the lack of data as the probable cause.

Don’t know why certain people bother coming on weather forums when they have such attitude. Utterly pointless.

And it truly is a crisp fresh morning in Auld Scotia! Temp was down to 0.9c at 8.30 but has now shot up to the heady heights of 1.3c. All change tomorrow when it will be milder and cloudier but at least no rain! I've just had a wee peep in the model thread, boy, is there some major sulking going on there! Some people truly do need to get a life, it's only weather! Anyhoo, hope you all have a great Christmas!

Some interest at day 9 on the ec op ..... could possibly end up with a very split NH at day 10 with at least two WAA events and some impressive arctic highs floating about Day 10 could be better I guess but as an indication of direction of travel it seems ok re other output and ens guidance