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Meant to post this last night but some forecasters saying mild Christmas. At this range ,about any thing could turn up ,strange year weather wise so far ,snow in the forecast tomorrow , STORMY with it ,plenty of rain next week and signs now of cold cyclonic next weekend . Our local squirrel s took BEDDING to their winter homes last week , yesterday they threw it out to the local polecats and like ,Today they are collecting it all back .went up woodshed just before sunset today and local vermin were BUSY storing winter food .some very interesting weather ahead I feel ,Stellas all round gang ,I'm usually lurking about as weather is always on my mind ,miss my dear late wife . It's great having this great forum , cheers all .

I'm sorry for being off topic but I'm sure mods will forgive me for this one. Very sorry to hear you're missing your wife, this time of year can be especially hard and you can't just switch off that sort of emotion. That said, I always smile when I read your posts and I'm sure many others feel the same. All the best. It's always a pleasure having you around.

I love having the FV3 now. There used to be that dead time between the end of the GFS and the start of the ECM where I had to talk to the wife. Not any more

Output is beginning to recognise the significance of the timing of +MT, MJO progression, background Nino and impact of heat transfer onto the vortex. Height rises out west to drive the trough further south, followed by invigoration of that trough via falling momentum phase - and meanwhile Greeny and Scandy height rises begin to link up. It's a near perfect sequence - and once again for all those moaning last night about how we cant predict anything and its all random blah blah - nonsense. There are spanners that regularly get thrown into the works and mess things up...but broadscale prediction is getting ever more possible with better and better tools. And this is one instance where we havent had a sudden uptick in solar activity, or a tropic storm in the wrong place....and the cold pattern will be completed on schedule. You have done well Lord Teleconnect....and now I sense that you wish to continue the search for the split vortex.... Hehe. Such fun. But to anchor my mid afternoon drivel into something with a graphical solidity about it - how about a GFS image. Usually ECM gets the bigger coverage, but I think GFS has been handling the extended picture rather better in recent days. By the end of next week we have a very good signal for a cold trough with signs of continental cold being able to back west ....and then within a few more days the heights back further west to Greenland and begin to pull in an ever more frigid flow from the E/NE Being brutally honest cold rain for many will have to be endured as we progress through this phase - but the end result looks like an increasingly cold and wintry one. Patience my friend. In time the Beast will seek you out, and when he does, you must bring him to me. He has grown strong. Only together with the additional benefit of a downwelling split vortex can we turn him to the Dark Side of The Force.......

We’ll definitely let you off with that. A very sweet post that I’m sure legritter will appreciate! With Christmas around the corner (sort of), probably no reason really for us hosts and mods to be too harsh. Posts like yours makes you realise what a great, caring, place this can be. ??

You know this is "The Hunt For Cold Thread" right ?

Come on Gavin don’t start throwing ya toys about because everything is pointing towards a lovely looking cold spell towards January . Cant believe you’ve gone to the extent of getting your red crayons out and colouring in the whole globe .

24 hours on from yesterdays update (above post ) Basically no change in the output. UK will be back in cold by day 9. They think ECM will correct in its next run. Meanwhile , a bit cold on the mountain this morning, currently -10c in the location of the picture below. Hope the weather turns seasonal for Christmas as I will be back in Blighty for a few days over the festive period before jetting off to Vancouver for a few weeks to see my new grandson. C

Just seen the EC46 run.. wow. If it's cold/blocked weather you like, early January is looking incredible. In fact, pretty much the entirety of January looks good!

I’m waiting for the next frame to run for the ECM. Now I know that there is a 12 hr disparity for direct comparison with the previous run, but I see two areas of improvement already by T+72....

The time is Christmas week......make sure you are where you want to be and get plenty of grub and booze in (get that anyway even if doesn't snow)......you know I've been saying it and saying it . Very short term swing to mild next week before the main game starts Trough to move s/SSE into Europe bringing very cold air from our north...to start with. BFTP

A Met Office spokesperson was on LBC, this morning, saying that all the signals are indicative of severe winter weather, come January! In the mean time, just watch, as the models slowly-but-surely come into line...?

Gotta say, increasingly convinced by the growing signal from GFS over recent runs for blocking in the N Atlantic / Greenland domain in the medium range as we get close to Xmas. This signal I think is being driven, this time, by displacement of the stratospheric vortex toward Siberia, induced by tropospheric forcing related to mountain torque/AAM. Note the 100 hPa heights show the vortex moving across to Siberia while robust height rises occur in the NAO region of the N Atlantic - which is coupling with height rises at 500mb too. The EC/EPS has yet give such a robust signal for height rises over the NAO region and any ridge attempts here have been short-lived, but the displacement of the SPV is perhaps causing a lot of model volatility atm, and we may well see the EC/EPS settle more in line with GFS/GEFS over next few runs. 12z GEFS mean backing Atlantic ridge and trough near/east of UK pulling in cold air from N or NE just in time for Xmas

The jet is off to the Med for Christmas

A split at that angle, should it descend similarly to lower levels, would lead to a properly cold January. To be honest couldnt really ask for a better location and angle of the split especially given timing. I hope everyone has taken the time to service their boiler. If not - get it done........ However usual caveat....one run....one perturbation....more water to flow under the bridge yet....

Reading this thread tonight has been a real rollercoaster....have to wonder why those who believe the weather is nothing but chaos with no discernible pattern bother to spend time on a forum where the main thrust is to try and make sense of complex signals and decipher a path forward - but there you go. Takes all sorts I guess.... ...and on the subject of signal deciphering all still looking pretty good, isn't it? I have a slightly warm and fuzzy feeling at the sight of this EPS chart for the 18th Good to know that GSDM theory has a basis that produces the goods. Signal for isolation of the trough underneath a growing band of high lat blocking is growing, and on schedule. To reinforce the fundamental reasons for this - time to post the MT chart that David has already put out there tonight...just for double emphasis It's a really very impressive spike at 30N - and to summarise David's detailed argument into a brief sentence - it very much increases the chances of our strat warming becoming a major one. This sharp increase in momentum will do all kinds of nasty to the vortex - but it also creates a signal for increased atlantic blocking as eddies downstream of the spiked pacific jet form. NWP has been slow to pick up on this - but that EPS chart suggests we have increased clarity now. From here? EPS at 10 days suggests again that the expected pathway may be accurate. The trough will sink south, and with it will come increasingly cold air and wintriness to high ground. This is the start of our winter proper (at least in my eyes) but don't expect widespread snow at low levels quite yet. However - this period will signal the start of the real cooldown. And from there? Time to return to GSDM forcing because strat reinforcement of the pattern will be a little way off yet. Tendency of AAM will begin its next downward cycle soon. This will signal in effect a reduced momentum signature at 30N and opportunity for enhanced momentum further north. However the difference this time is that our next MJO cycle has kicked off, with moderate wave activity emanating once again from the pacific. This will aid in preventing the pattern from becoming too flat, and I would suggest we will see a reinvigoration of the atlantic as we head into Xmas week (despite the higher than average pressure anomalies out west on that EPS chart) but with the trajectory to the south rather than through the heart of the UK (as is happening this week) as heights to our NW serve to deflect the jet on a NW/SE axis. Shamelessly cherry picking a GFS extended image from the 18z rolling out now this chart for Xmas eve would be about what I would expect though perhaps with a greater maintenance of heights over Scandy Systems tracking beneath the block heading towards mainland Europe. Polar maritime airmass mixing with a trough that is beginning to pull in air from the NE. In essence becoming progressively colder on average. So - when does all this give us snowfall at low levels in the south? Don't know yet - don't want to guess. Depends on how quickly cold air can be absorbed from the NE and just how entrenched the block becomes. But chances certainly exist prior to New Year if the flow is right. If not it wont be long after NY before we see 850s in the right kind of zone with a flow that will be evermore easterly on average. And all this being forecast on 13th December rather than 13th February. Warm and fuzzy all over again....

300mb jet.. Is buckled and busted!!.@shunted south And with the pressure synop on overide (In a prime position).. Its an -upper layer responce..and an exceptional placement-format... THE TIME IS NIGH...!!!!

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks atlantic driven out to christmas eve with temperatures close to average but I've seen evidence today that the festive season could be more white than green so fingers crossed..it's all about luck and coldies deserve some don't they..I mean we!...

Thought it might be worth adding that although this is the Hunt For Cold Thread, those like @Summer Sun are perfectly entitled to post charts, such as the latest JAMSTEC ones, if they want to. Even if they don’t show cold. It’s true that most people in here are after cold and snow (and that’s fine), but there ought to be room for anyone of any weather preference to have there say in the models threads, whether it’s in this one and/or in the short range/general model threads. Plus, is nice to have some balance in here from time to time, with anyone made to feel welcome. (Sorry if my post comes across as preachy. Not meaning to single anyone out, but just felt it was worth saying ).

He's queuing at ASDA for a sledge Then nipping to the bookies on the way home Should be back in time for the 12z.

The Gfs 6z operational backs up my thoughts yesterday!!!!..fingers crossed c o l d i e s!!..let's hope we see a wintry xmas / new year!!..and a good Brexit deal...nah that's probably too optimistic!!

I think it might just be acceptable to start getting a wee bit excited. Even more so after GFS 06Z this morning.

Evening- Maybe a longer post over the weekend should there be time - however worth noting that the UKMO 168 is on a par with the GFS rendering the ECM a probable outlier- ECM hasnt particularly great lately with UKMO pretty solid & accurate on this latest cold spell... S

What better night, for a possible channel runner?

The way I look at it right now is that coldies have two big lottery tickets in a draw that only holds 2 and a bit outcomes, I'll come to 'the bit' later! First ticket. Evolution of the current trop pattern to high lat blocking and cold, showing already on the models. 6z GFS, 12z GFS, FV3, GEM, etc. Second ticket. Golden ticket. The strat. Technical SSW pretty much guaranteed by 29 Dec (displacement) then confidence building for another split SSW as early as first week of Jan - cue tropospheric mayhem, really likely to include the UK. I said I'd come back to 'the bit' it's a note of caution that the UK is an island in an ocean just off a continent, and it is really hard to predict the long term weather for such a place! Still, on this occasion, I'm as confident as I could possibly be now about a freezing January.

Exciting developments from GFS . Snow in time for Christmas ? 528dam sinking ever more south westwards through the Kingdom.

12z swingometer looks like it could be reaching a tipping point. No longer are mild runs the majority and some pretty cold runs from the OP and parallel Could we see a swing to cold for the big day!!???

Indeed..a quote i got laughed @4..not so very long ago.. Game firmly on !!!

GEM starting to smell some coffee: GFS meanwhile has a variation on a theme: This could be quite a day. When you have models, background ocean signals, stratospheric signals and the pros (ie the Metoffice) all singing from the same hymn sheet, it is time to take notice.

For me the run up to a potential cold spell and watching output showing great outcomes is nearly as much fun as the actual spell.

ECM certainly not zonal tonight. Been waiting for this type of change earlier in the run for a while. The next Atlantic low ‘should’ head in the same direction as the first but with better cut off ridging to its north.

Festive weather on Crimbo day..BANK!!!..loving the Gfs 12z beyond the milder gunk next week..fingers crossed for a snowy, frosty, icy christmas!!

I wasn't expecting great things from the ECM tjhis morning and in that respect it didn't disappoint at least. However, it is on the right page at D10. Yes, I know D10, but there are absolutely no expectations of anything in the next 7 days. D7-D10 will be a bonus. D10+ will be about the point and time where I think the pattern change will start to occur, with energy driving SE again into Europe. In that respect, I will happily take the day 10 chart from the ECM this morning Which actually is along the same lines as the GFS mean... Higher up, it looks like the EC may've over-egg'ed U winds for that timeframe as well... Yesterday D10 Compared to today's D9... Leading to... Eye candy FI charts are surely on the way

Yea, and the people did hearken unto the words spake by St Edward of East Anglia. For merrily he did forecast the second warming of the year of our Lord two thousand and eighteen which did maketh the fell winter cloak the land in rime and snowy white like the fleece of the lamb.

Second warming...

It would be good for just once, that the GFS calls it right. I think the one thing that the GFS is actually decent at is modelling Greenland height rises.

Even though it's at the top of every page, it seems some of us need a reminder of the thread guidelines: This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced: Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location. Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok. Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

I know, I must be. The two area were increased amplification off the eastern USA and evidence of the Atlantic low becoming cut off with better heights into eastern Greenland. Hence the better negative inclination at T+96. Small changes at the start of a run can have bigger implications down the line

At least you have a wife

Enjoy your festive shopping and festive parties a crisp xmas eve With occasional snow showers filtering well inland Stoke up the log fire xmas day and have that extra brandy Its going to be a white one

Looks like above average almost worldwide doesn’t look right to me

Whooos...complaining!!! Sting format greeny .. And almost tri-lobe vortex... The xmas meltdown..GAINS..a tad more !!!

Mike, if you compare today’s ECM runs looking at southern Greenland, you will see a massive swing towards greater heights in this area. If that’s the trend.........

dont worry FV3 fine for xmas period...

One of the most interesting 12z suites for some considerable time is almost on us. Some key questions are: Will the synoptics of the GFS 6z be repeated? Although this run was great for cold, it was largely dry for most of the UK, any advance on that? Will any cold and/or snowy period align with Christmas? Will 'P17' start to show up on strat charts on more runs? First out ICON, support for a very weak ridge to our NW, which puts us in the game. T174, with T180 from the 0z for comparison. Good start.

Great spot, @Kirkcaldy Weather, this is absolutely what we want to see and what I have looked for at the end of the GFS and FV3 op runs for days now and thus far failed to see. This is the death of the vortex . P17 final chart as a 'still', nail this and we nail winter:

A very mobile pattern ?? That’s definitely not been the case has it ? Stop making stuff up .

One post saying great one saying mild #confused.com

Xmas week will be very interesting enough.....18z leading the charge BFTP

Goodness me GFS is a cracker!! Cmon EC stop playing bloody scrooge!!