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Morning all. Thought you might like these pictures taken in the village last night. 50cm snowfall ! Interesting charts from the models this morning with a bit of a colder upgrade. Looking at the UKMO fax chart , a cold block still in place for Friday with little progress of the front out of Ireland. Think Saturday could be an interest day as the fronts start to push into the cold air ( transient snow for quite a few ) if the current model outputs hold but I think beyond 96 t I-144t is open to uncertainty. Should get an update later from over here as regards to the colder spell to evolve in the 10-15 days ( as indicated in the above post ). C

Top post of the day for me. Viewing the bigger picture and not obsessing on every operational run. Very much in line with GP's thoughts and from a poster who called it correctly pretty much all through last winter.

Suns come out. Sparkling day now, deep snow cover and current temp of -5c. Just a few skiers today enjoying the fantastic weather and scenery in the mountains. A bit of an update from over here. Still not 100% sure how things are going to evolve this coming weekend regarding to the British Isles. Model still keeps showing a slight westward correction on each 24 hourly run output. Longer term charts at day 10 still shows a low over the British Isles starting to slowly sink into Europe and height rises to follow towards the NW. By day 15 some very cold air develops ,especially over Northeast Europe. UK looks cold during this period with snow risk more likely over the continent but still too far out to forecast ,but the trend is there. Hope this helps. c

David has already nailed some of the GSDM analysis tonight. One chart to add. Here is mountain torque currently: Notice the huge spike in tendency at 30N associated with a +EAMT. As previously forecast this has arrived and initiated extension of the pacific jet - note this chart in the reliable demonstrating incoming systems onto the California coast on the back of that extension. Downstream eddies likely. Overall calculated tendency has also spiked back up to previous levels in the autumn And the MJO continues to be strong and progressive through the Indian Ocean which is impressive in a Nino year: All of this continues to point only one way - a return of the blocking pattern as we move into the second half of the month. The only issue is - when? Signs on the extended GFS next week of the sort of mid atlantic progression that I have been thinking may happen - but NWP returns to default and powers the atlantic through afterwards. I'm not convinced. I think we are going to see a return of the block pretty soon after its shunting away this weekend, but via a rise to the west of the trough rather than a resurgent Euro to Scandy high. Previously 18th Dec was my guess - I might have to go a day or two later now but we will see. Fascinating watching.

GLOSEA update continues the blocked theme Jan-March

Given that just about every winter we end up disappointed when we wish for snow, I've come to the conclusion that our weather reads this forum and goes out of its way to let us down. On that basis, I hypothesise that the best way to get snow is to start wishing for a strong Spanish plume to get a heatwave. If we all start whiffling about that we should end up in the freezer within days.

Yes & the 06Z FV3 making changes - again highlighting that a lot can change in 90 hours 06z on the left What I am highlighting is if we have more jet energy breaking away SE it wont necessarily adjust the PPN belt but will influence the curvature of the isolines from SW to S then maybe to SE holding the cold air in place - Remember the GFS has been lifting out -3 ish air from the SE, now the -8c line is there its getting a lot harder !

Glosea update.

Gfs in a very festive mood this morning Has us in a notable cold shot..with many a snow chance.. Looking at both evolution..and overheads....its got a shot. Things evoluving nicely...as we move through the month now !!!

Now up to 8/21 GEFS members going for a technical SSW, and the mean looks like it would hit the line in another day or so: I think we can say the displacement SSW will now happen but what next, will we get the split?

I have seen similar scenes before outside my window. Then I woke up.

Hope to see something along these lines tomorrow. Fingers crossed. UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2019: The end of 2018 is likely to remain fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, as we head into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, but also an increasing chance of some snow showers and night-time frosts. Things will then become bitterly cold with wide spread heavy snow and below average temperatures which will lead to the sea around the British isles freezing and allowing frost fairs to be held on the Thames. Communities will become cut off for weeks at times and cities will grind to a halt as grit supplies run low. This theme will continue with temperatures ranging between -10 and -30 for the rest of winter. Just for Feb..

Evening folks. Just catching up on the models and there's a considerable amount of interesting things. Shorter term first, I'm struck by the bewildering range of options at T144, here are most of them, JMA, ECM, UKMO, GFS, GEM, FV3: UKMO looks most interesting, GEM looks most ridiculous, but shows that while I have stopped following this potential cold snap in detail, it would be wrong to write off some early snowy interest - and it would be nice to see, would be nice to get the HIRLAM out of its box and look at some short term snow potential charts! With such divergence at this timescale, I don't think we can say anything meaningful at all in the 10-15 day range from the op runs, and that does include Christmas. Longer term, all eyes on the strat, peak warming on12z FV3 at T276: So not long until we can see the ECM take on it, but I don't expect it will differ much, the models predict these things well at this timescale. But then comes the big question - is the strat vortex just displaced, or does a split or annihilation follow? Will make a massive difference to whether we get that really cold January that the split option has a high probability of delivering. Over to the strat experts for that, the op runs don't go far enough to make a call from a model perspective. But today's GloSea5 update gives hope, and this is a model which supposedly is particularly good wrt the strat. Lots to smile about

If I'm going to be purposely picky and a little bit obnoxious towards the models.....the only thing I would comment on is that the low MSLP anomaly is a little further North than one would like in an absolutely perfect world. Some would argue that this throws plenty of opportunity for precipitation into the mix....others would argue that it has just the faintest of tinges of the risk of a more west-based -NAO pattern to it.... But I caveat all of the above with the fact that this is a three month average anomaly, and with that sort of pattern, should it prove to be correct, there will be more than enough opportunity for the UK to join in the fun - and this is actually more in line with my thoughts for the coming months than the ECM seasonal projection in terms of where the core of the higher anomalies may sit

Suspect there will be a fair bit of frustration and desperation setting in over the next few days, with the models showing no sign of any real cold, thanks to a westerly atlantic flow, with typical ridge/trough formation, often wet, windy and temps average at best, wintry precipitation resigned to northern high ground, though always the chance of wintry showers at lower levels should we see a greater dig of the trough and a bit of amplification. In the short-term a colder period, feeling raw on Thursday and Friday, snow quite probable down to low levels for a time in the far north of England and into Scotland on Saturday. Could be a good time for cold snow lovers to switch off from model watching for a good week/10 days as I suspect it won't be until near christmas we begin to see the models show an increased likelihood of colder conditions in their longer range outputs - i.e towards end of the month. If some of the predictions of cold surfacing by the New Year come to fruition it won't be until christmas that we see the models indicate this. One thread I will be looking at is the strat one - lots of interest in the run up to christmas. I would love to be saying we have a cold snowy run up to christmas - but I can't say that, it will be the 8th year in a row this hasn't occurred.. however, there are a significant number of positive signals painting to a much increased chance of cold and snow as we hit New Year, and its not often we have been able to say that in the last 8 years, only in late Dec 2012... again thanks to strat developments.

The 168 would show another ridge reaching North in the atlantic with low pressure heading SSE into europe - Would preclude another cold shot- As for this weekends snow ( IMBY aside ) looks a decent event for the North, minimal for the south ( as it stands ) - sadly just missing that energy push SE- still just about time to change I will post up 168 UKMO later but hoping ECM follows suit later -

GEM similar to APERGE Remember just 48 hours ago there was no snow event...

Hi Steve Murr ?? Starting to feel very quiet in here and it’s the only thing getting me through my long days at work lol. do you or anyone else fancy having a guesstimating Stab at what will happen over Friday and Saturday? my brain has been fried over the last few days with the yes it will no it won’t posts regarding this weekend and now I’m at a loss what to think? thanks in advance, Ryan (long time lurker... love the show guys and gals ??)

Im still concentrating on the weekend- ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

You do realise that when you post pics like that, the background of the page glows green over here with the collective envy?

Christmas cheer... Just a bit of fun but compare... Just sayin...

Aaaahhhh... that's better. A decent ridge developing in the N Atlantic by D11, threatening Greenland. Clusters 1/2. Where next?

C-mon..its worth another post.. Upper therms...burning with a fever !!!! @bulldozer...too- wendy house !!!!!! She just gotta split... Its an evaporation..like a hot knife in butter......

Top stuff.. Wish i had the time for such analysis!. And my sentiments exactly...xmas=starting gun.

The UKMO , GFS and GEM are all different at day 6 . The upstream pattern on the UKMO would likely hold the low back and extend a ridge ne ahead of it by day 7 . The GFS is more progressive and the GEM looks like it’s been to Amsterdam for the day ! The good thing about these differences suggests some background noise which might save us from zonal dirge !

It looks like its trying to upwell a split due to the trop 2 wave pattern, if a pattern as tame as this can do damage another 50000ft higher then we really are in business, looks like we just need one really good trop lead pattern and we could destroy it for the rest of winter.

144 UKMO very interesting !

Some timely tweets from Ventrice - how is this for a 51-member ensemble MEAN warming - temperatures in the -15 to -10 range out at day 15 as an average. The reality could be much much warmer EDIT: Just adding the anomaly view in, in case anyone missed just how significant a projected warming this really is

GFS 06z still carrying the Xmas baton There'll be more of these scenarios to follow with a NH profile like this on offer

The stratosphere looks like it is going to get fried ☺. Signs of change on later model frames starting to show in the GFS 00z. Obviously far out but a step in the right direction for us coldies. Interesting times ahead.

We call that a dusting in here wonderful photos

That’s only for displacements. With a split vortex it’s 2 in 3, and the experts in that area reckon there are promising signs for further strat warming late December/early January that could lead to a split vortex, with the by then already weakened and displaced vortex more susceptible to being split. It also doesn’t take into account where the displacement occurs.

M8...it a-both elapsing...and forwardind motion in the overheads...the bottling is looking to collapse..and spillage is of watch and note.... Things could look very interesting even this time nxt week...and a whole new set of data and formats could be looked upon.. And thers every chance of that ...imo !!

At last, was trying to find a post with UKMO. A full steam easterly wasn’t on, and a full steam zonal Atlantic from weekend imo isn’t on. Some playing to do. The block will shift to allow the Atlantic to affect us but it won’t allow it to punch into Scandi to allow zoneality....models showing it being more ‘stubborn’ . Any model that then shows deep troughing over us around 22-23 sinking SE or SSE over Xmas.....keep your eye on that......Winterwatch warning from me aka no change! BFTP

Hmm that UKMO run actually ties in very nicely with the westerly momentum being sapped from the Atlantic troughs next week. The sudden digging of the trough toward the Azores reminds me of what we were looking out for back in mid-August in response to the El Nino tropical cycle getting going (which, sadly, it actually waited until October to do). It's an important consideration that increased cyclogenesis, while making eastward progression more likely, doesn't by any means make it certain. With enough loss of broader-scale westerly momentum, those troughs can still be held out west. Just look at what's happening on Friday - it takes yet another secondary low to achieve the push east of the blocking high. From what I've seen over the years, the models tend to assume that deep troughs have much more of their own progressive capability than they do in reality. Still... the other models are a seriously long way off from the UKMO solution in terms of the major subtropical ridge movement, so it's hard to place much faith in UKMO's outcome at this stage, even with the above theory in mind - but it is enough for me to consider the outcomes evenly balanced despite the majority vote from the models being for the European component of the ridge to flatten out rather than amplify.

I know this is a “ hunt for cold” thread but why lose sleep over things that keep changing. Today in Norfolk was 5C lovey clear blue sky, frost still in shaded areas until the afternoon. Why is no one happy with this? I sure am.

End of the Para shows a northerly but more importantly a big cool down and snow cover for most of Europe..once that SSW kicks in and delivers an Easterly it will have more balls this time!

All this talk of zonal rubbish, this is the UKs typical winter weather and it’s just a case of waiting and hoping for something to happen. There are lots to be positive about as we move through Winter according to many professionals and premium models, and a possible SSW late Dec that is slowly gaining both strength and coming into a more reliable time frame . If the SSW impacts us then expect quick flips in Models in the next week or so - I’m a believer that the best time to have the perfect beast type Synoptics is Jan , and that’s looking a distinct possibility at the minute.

The runs today (and to some extent yesterday) are beginning to reduce the likelihood of the Atlantic trough being the main player next week ......

ECM seasonal forecast is along similar lines to GLOSEA So certainly support there - Does tie in with what the experts (GP etc) on here are suggesting too!

A dog breaking wind in Alaska and crippling the flow!!!!!

'Haway the Lads

At the very least the above charts showing zonal winds on a downwards curve from around the 15th, won't do any harm thats for sure!

The updated fax chart for Friday shows the block to be stronger and the fronts struggling more when compared to this morning's chart for the same time.

Brian on TWO reporting latency issues so GFS MAY be late from all sources.

Hes showing the profile and its similarity to ec46!!! Nothing foolish with that.Grow up sunshine!!!

latest ao

Luton Hoo this morning. Sunrise and freezing fog. I love winter!

Ar dude, such a mouth-drooling chart at the end of that GFS run this morning! Wish this was for tomorrow and that it maintained itself throughout Christmas lol. And into January and into February and into March. Not bad. I suppose a chance there for the Arctic Oscillation to go into negative territory, should that end up being close to what could happen. (and then hopefully a negative non-Western based NAO and/or more stable Scandinavian block to go with it).

Morning all. I see from the Beeb that Grangemouth has heavy snaw for Saturday, if it is true inland should do well with a little height. Shepards warning yesterday morning....