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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/12/18 in all areas

  1. Although relative angular momentum is very high right now, that is partly a reflection of a persistent +AAM signal in both hemispheres. The greatest +AMM signal in the Northern Hemisphere is that westerly inertia signal deposited 30N. That is essentially past peak and likely to decay over time. However, with the tropical VP signal migrating a tropical wave eastward during week 2: We're likely to see jet extension and +AAM signal renewed week 2. That takes GWO signal back to phase 5 (Scandinavian ridge signal). Because of the slow speed of this tropical wave, suspect that the GWO signal will remain more in phase 5 than would normally be expected. Hence ridge to our NE likely to be more durable and models likely to be too progressive with this feature. Looking beyond this, the GWO suggests a phase 6-7 evolution on the cards as the decaying +AAM signal and maturing momentum signal from the tropical wave take effect. Ridge signal to shift further west and NW. Disregard any model output that does not follow these broad lines. The final third of December into early January is stacked with cold potential. Think a decaying +AAM signal and MJO returning back to the Indian Ocean. High chance that the GWO will be heading into high amplitude phases 7 and 8 and overlaid by a collapsing polar vortex and very weak polar westerly flow. This I think is where we are heading into January.
    59 points
  2. There is no crystal ball im afraid- What we have is the Met office responding to their Glosea model in a considered fashion - see IF tweet to me below Hes clear that the document is lagged in production - What you have on here are people responding to real time data & interpreting this into forecasts - with obviously no repercussion if it goes wrong - The fact that the met office are tentative in their move to cold is very good news.... I think at this point as highlighted by many of us for a long while is the best possible position heading into any winter since 2009/10. S
    37 points
  3. I'm excited by next week's potential from the Gfs 12z operational with borderline ice days, widespread frosts and even some snow in places!!..bring it on!
    34 points
  4. Had an interesting chat with the forecast team earlier. Basically the same and that is for high pressure to be NE of the British Isles during period 192-240T and formation of upper low over the continent to possibly move westwards towards Souther Britain. They think this 2nd attempt of cold from the east will be a bit more robust than the first one a few weeks ago but expect it to be repelled again for a few days. However, their longer term charts now indicate a 3rd and more potent attempt to bring cold down from the Arctic the week before Christmas. Now that's exciting . Third time lucky , but colder scenario is the theme for the outlook. C
    31 points
  5. More signs from the latest models indicating some wintry weather on the way next week in the run up to christmas which is great to see!..hopefully the met office extended outlook will change as they are still adamant about a milder unsettled spell towards / during the festive period.
    30 points
  6. Yes, this would be bang on with expectation. So a less cold (T850) phase after the northerly then easterly next week
    28 points
  7. The Gfs 12z operational brings wintry weather next week too with ice days and snow..I'm really happy with the trend from the latest models.
    27 points
  8. EC 45 dayer shows marked drop in AO forecast second week of January to -2SD (mean), commencing in trend 26th December. Wonder what's driving that then ? Consistency with GLOSEA on stratospheric forecast. NAO forecasts not as negative, but worth pointing out that a Scandinavian block is not well represented within that index. FWIW, thinking would be for the NAO to move in concert with the AO here as pressure will likely be anomalously low in the Atlantic.
    27 points
  9. Given those final charts from Stewart I may as well post the weatherbell anomaly chart for DJF as it fits pretty well this has been consistent from them since September
    26 points
  10. To begin the forecast the forecaster said ‘Easterly winds are set to return next week, and that is never a good thing’. Pfft!
    25 points
  11. This is a funny old place sometimes. Far too many people are reactive from single model runs, too eager to post about how an entire month can be written off at the drop of a 6z run. Blast, Bluearmy, myself, GP, Steve and I'm sure a few others have been consistently posting about the development of a Scandi ridge for a couple of weeks, long before the models showed it. Whilst some posters were posting zonal charts saying "no cold, it's not going to happen look at this zonal chart" we sat by waiting and finally, the models are showing what we expected to see, Scandi ridging and potential colder weather. Now that it's here, those same zonal people are still trying to find reasons that it wont happen, "The Met don't mention it" "the ICON is rubbish" etc. It's strange, really. UKMO day 6, cold air flooding into Europe as the ridge of high pressure moves North. All gravy so far..
    23 points
  12. I'm a little surprised there's still so much focus in here on the old GFS, when - in my opinion - the parallel is doing rather better! And the latest parallel / FV3 follows what looks quite reasonable on the ensembles. First, easterly with snow risk in the D6-D10 period Then, slow win out by Atlantic system from the SW Renewed ridging to our west by mid-month causing renewed disruption to the Atlantic later on - perhaps like this? And just 5 days before Christmas
    23 points
  13. I can ask my seven year old to draw something - as likely to be correct as any model at ten days out ....
    19 points
  14. A classic textbook snow event for the SW on the North side of the slider with the surface flow & Airmass continental-
    19 points
  15. The models today are firming up on some wintry weather at times next week and we can add tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean to the list!..hoping the upgrades continue..think I picked a good time to come back!!
    18 points
  16. Remind me; is this thread about the hunt for cold or the extremely persistent and wide-ranging hunt for mild?!
    18 points
  17. Anyway..bk 2 the here...and now -MODEL DISCUSS..(HUNT 4 COLD)..-we have hunted and found!!!! The 18z gfs-..is again decent early-params.. As we get 3-spinners that..will aid invigor.. Oh dear..its a crying shambolic set of suites...if your looking 4 a march-forward of mild weather. Edit.. And as the gain catches momentum.. Its obliteration for the doorway of mild zonality. Terrible life...is'nt it?!!!
    17 points
  18. @johnholmes Met office forecasting days -Classic coordinates for Scandi High?
    17 points
  19. Have I woken up in a different universe? GFS looks great to me! UKMO looking okay ECM fantastic
    16 points
  20. This is the toastiest we've seen the strat forecast so far this season...
    16 points
  21. EPS musing: - AO and NAO going negative again, AO from 15.12.18 and NAO from 12..12.18, median aprrox -1SD - According to 500mb height anomaly in last frames - west based -NAO and UK/IE through - Western Scandi, UK and IE under those synoptics coldest anomalies in Europe, but not a huge negative anomaly - Positives are that both AO and NAO have flipped negative in the same time frame as 46 day output was showing positive over all the previous updates. Once again hats of to @Glacier Point who is quite accurate in predicting circulation trends way before models show them.
    15 points
  22. In ref to my above post In comparison to Dec 95', even the upper air temperature profile matches. That resulted in maximum temperatures close to freezing for most. Hopefully the other model members will hop aboard the ECM gravy train.
    15 points
  23. i do like a mid December sausage me …………….. always good in the run up to xmas ………………...
    15 points
  24. The FV3 continues to have cold interest as early as Sunday
    15 points
  25. UKMO jet 144 still moving NNE so whilst not quite as amplified will probably still deliver the same outcome in the end GFS 12z the -8c line now gets into SE at just 132 & that airmass maintains -6c from 144 onwards.....
    15 points
  26. Bluearmy summed up the EC clusters appropriately earlier in the thread but just going to add the D8 and D12 charts Noteworthy that, for the second time in three weeks, the ECM ensembles has progressed from an uncertain prognosis in D11-D15 to a (likely) cold prognosis once in D7-D9. Is that the way the winter is going? Also, once again we're looking at renewed west Atlantic ridging by mid-month, and trough anomalies generally south or east of the usual zonal conveyor - could be a precursor to another cold attack but this time, maybe, from the north. Even if only going by the clusters of recent weeks, my confidence in seeing a noteable cold event over the UK in the next few weeks is above average - simply based upon the fact that the polar vortex does not appear able to dictate events in the North Atlantic at the moment.
    15 points
  27. A staggeringly positive update from Stewart for coldies-
    15 points
  28. still here ......... clearly it’s going cold and clearly we get a scandi upper ridge ......maybe it could ironically end up a bit too far north and then drift east allowing the undercut to get more traction into the uk and the potential cold period could last only a few days with limited. opportunity for snow ..... but that’s all beyond reasonable model guidance timescale so tomorrow’s runs remain compelling viewing ..... it could end up a historic december week or potentially longer if things go our way ............
    14 points
  29. WOW the FV3 192> beautiful with trough undercutting,a few very minor tweaks and boom and for good measure,a renewed ridge in the atlantic for another go loving this model watching
    14 points
  30. These charts are stonking even for mid december! Even early december you dont often get classic scandi highs like are been shown on the output. Makes you wonder what the rest of winter could hold with good teleconnection signals for coldies and low solar activity. Just to add my birthday is 15th december so i could be in with a higher chance of snow than usual by the way things are going. Its doesnt often snow on my birthday either.
    14 points
  31. Gfs lining up a belter.. and yes the knee jerking is becoming ######### !!. The height aligns will dilly dally.. As expected...some ridiculous quota..@times.
    14 points
  32. Do you have any idea who he is and what he does? Clearly not
    14 points
  33. Well 4/21 GEFS members have a technical SSW today, that's up from 2 yesterday.
    14 points
  34. It depends entirely upon where the displacement pushes the vortex to - and often the ‘angle’ of the displacement too. What we see with the current/forecast Wave 1 action is the core of the vortex pushed from over the arctic/Greenland/Canada across to Siberia and Asia. There’s a lot of ifs, buts and maybes, but if you are eventually looking for a draining of the low heights to our NW (and assuming that the tropospheric response is near identical to the stratospheric one) then this is good news in the longer term - and especially in association with the later (I suspect East Asian Mountain Torque led, but I have not checked this yet) more significant warming in the Asian sector, which in recent stratospheric history has been one of the more exciting warming locations in terms of cold tropospheric consequences But what we should bear in mind is that with this westerly push of the vortex (and again assuming the tropospheric pattern follows the stratospheric one quite closely) is that it is likely to mean we get some more momentum in the Atlantic at some point in December. That is not to necessarily say a return to raging zonality is on the cards, but I suspect the forecast potential height rises to our north-east may be somewhat short lived (unless we get very lucky) for now - but a) the continued tendency towards Scandinavian/Siberian blocking in the short term will continue to damage the already wobbly vortex, and b) I really do think this would be short lived whilst we see the vortex shift above our heads take place. And what happens the other side of this could be something quite welcome for most members on here In summary - it’s all very complicated, but there’s no magic formula to say that Wave 1 = this and Wave 2 = that - but observations of this season so far look really rather positive to me
    14 points
  35. One ongoing trend in all the models is to maintain a southerly tracking jet. This keeps a lot of Wintery interest going forward as we are more likely to see Atlantic lows attacking any wedge of heights to our ne on a more favourable angle to create a snowy scenario.GFS showed something along those lines but it wasn't quite there but we do see how the colder air remains very much in the picture for perhaps any further height rises to our north east..
    13 points
  36. Yes.. quite. High pressure building Northwards towards Scandinavia is what it's showing.
    13 points
  37. Case in point, people saying the Easterly isn't going to happen based on 1 UKMO run which isn't even all that bad..
    13 points
  38. I agree. Always read between the lines when it comes to MetO commentary - and a whole row of dominos are now falling into place and forum heavyweights making their thoughts clear..... EPS remains on course....
    13 points
  39. Who needs a Scandy high?? Long live the Grice - land high!! Truly remarkable 6Z, perhaps unlikely but certainly an option on the table, protracted period of High pressure to our north in Mid Dec? Pretty darn cold persisting and probably intensifying ..
    13 points
  40. 12 points
  41. I think we have to wait to see the route beyond the ridge before we can ascertain how the ridge will affect us in that regard, things remain fluid - the favoured route from the ops currently being the undercut - but how far ne against the block will any undercut get - we were here a couple weeks ago and the Atlantic ended up overpowering completely - this looks more likely to be a better fight as heights to our south look better however - this isn’t certain and if the jet comes in in a more w-e rather than being diverted se then the undercut could end up being messy as the precip pushes more W/e rather than sw/ne sliding nature into the cold and then we have to work out if the cold will be entrenched enough to deliver. Clusters currently 65/35 in favour of the undercut - within that cluster there will be good and not so good outcomes beyond day 10 we are back to 6 clusters and whilst four of these are below 15%, it shows that picking the route forward is fraught with uncertainty- note that within this a mid Atlantic ridge moving slowly west to east around day12/14 looks likely so even if things go pear shaped more interesting output will remain on the table
    12 points
  42. The FV3 looks even better on the iso 0 degree z500-1000 (dam) with the 528 as far south as southern France and the 524 pushing into the channel
    11 points
  43. Here's the (delayed) FV3 at T156, looks good going for the block... Easterly well in at T186, with undercutting lows. Nice
    11 points
  44. Hello Sorry I haven't been on here much but I've been deep in the mire of finishing my PhD thesis and time for other things has been at a bare minimum which includes no Netweather . Quick post from me to say the ECM and GFS are both great this evening up to T240. Not much in the way of really cold uppers... but at this time of the year it doesn't matter much because if we have slack winds temperatures soon tumble. Remember slidergate last December didn't see much in the way of particularly cold uppers but it was a fairly decent short snap of winter weather. If we see a scenario with disrupting lows developing then keep a close eye out. We are getting some cold in place it seems which is a start. Now time to get back to work. Hopefully there will be some cracking charts when I'm finished and I can start contributing more on here again!
    11 points
  45. ECM t192......”I’ll be your Huckleberry” BFTP
    11 points
  46. Any pressure ( N/ NE movement )Now fragmenting in favour of moving SE underneath
    11 points
  47. It just SCREAMS POTENTIAL and ALL THE BUILDING BLOCKS ARE IN PLACE but we might NEED ANOTHER BITE OF THE CHERRY because it is SQUEAKY BUM TIME for the MARGINAL UPPERS. Did I use enough NW cliches there?
    11 points
  48. And that Morgan woman makes a living out of chatting with rotted corpses... I'll take an Earth-/model-based presentation, whose methodology is clearly explained and open to legitimate critique, over an occultist pile of obfuscatory gobbledegook, any day...
    11 points
  49. Cold creeping closer on 00z ECM and not being held at days 9 and 10
    10 points
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