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Showing most liked content on 03/12/18 in all areas

  1. 53 likes
    The hunt for cold is hotting up..so to speak..I'm hoping the Ecm is on the right track and that all roads lead to cold..and snow during early winter!❄❄❄
  2. 17 likes
    Superb UKMO wintry showers moving over to snow showers filtering through scotland into the ENE - Great blocking signal as well-
  3. 13 likes
    EPS day 6 in line with ECM Op & UKMO. Heights extending up through the UK and into the Griceland region.. No support for GFS Op.
  4. 12 likes
    Viewing the EC clusters this morning, the general guidance seems to be: Dec 7-10: Pressure rises through the N Atlantic (consistently advertised for a week now) Dec 11-14: A split between a quick topple and a NE ridge supported by Euro trough (the latter scenario leading to a cold easterly) Dec 15-17: Where ridging to the NE had been established, it starts to lose influence over the UK - but in the meantime, positive height anomalies start to appear in the W Altantic, potentially leading to a west-based or east-based negative NAO soon after. One to watch!! My main headline would be this, though: Whatever happens in the next two weeks regarding cold/snow for the UK, it is becoming clear to me that the polar vortex is struggling - big time - to achieve a long-term influence over the weather in the UK - in a period when you would expect it to be close to its peak.
  5. 12 likes
    More robust upper ridge north across UK early next week on 06z v 00z GFS and also higher surface pressure over Scandi, add in more of an undercut from the Atlantic trough on SW flank of high, this is certainly more of a nod in the direction of 00z EC with an easterly T+237 deep cold knocking on our eastern door, -9c T850s across E Anglia
  6. 11 likes
    No idea why some people rave about February cold. It just doesn't have the same feel or sustainability as a spell in December or January. Even by mid Feb it can feel pleasant in the sun during the middle of the day.
  7. 8 likes
  8. 8 likes
    240 ECM is very nice with -8 uppers over the UK Lovely Scandinavian High!
  9. 7 likes
    You didn't seriously think the pub run would let us down did you?
  10. 7 likes
    Yeah.. A few days ago the BBC monthly was going for mild Westerlies all the way through, goes to show just how little attention BBC forecasts are worth now they’ve ditched the Met. I’m hoping to see a backtrack on the GFS 18z tonight..
  11. 7 likes
    UK Met develops this wedge of relatively higher pressure which holds back the Atlantic low, GFS drives the low through... You would expect the Uk Met to handle energy like this better than the GFS bit we're hanging our hats on the thin edge of a wedge!
  12. 7 likes
    Strat vortex getting a real pummelling on the FV3 18z, here T384 Not a SSW, more a slow drawn out death! got to have consequences though... I think things are going to get very interesting later this month.
  13. 6 likes
  14. 6 likes
    What a chart that is globally,just think for a second if that came off! great chart viewing at the moment and i am glad to take part in this party ok the uppers are not that cold but it's the trends i am seeing consistantly that keep on churning out.
  15. 6 likes
    Only that it’s 9 days away other than that it’s pretty perfect.
  16. 6 likes
    November update December to February Temperature summary For December-January-February as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures, with the highest chances of impacts from cold weather later in the period. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 25%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf Precipitation summary For December-January-February as a whole, the chances of above- or below-average precipitation are approximately similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-djf-v2.pdf
  17. 5 likes
  18. 4 likes
    Put it this way, anymore posts regarding people’s favourite month for snow and they will get run through our lovely shredder! We would hate having to use it, as we have had so many problems with the shredder getting jammed up by off-topic posts in here before.
  19. 4 likes
    ... and back to discussing the lovely models, please?! Discussion for what month you like the snow can be continued here:
  20. 4 likes
    Noted northerly...and with the cell eye..and northern extention of sway...we-are aligned for THE WRAP-..18z look like aligning....coming on board...
  21. 4 likes
    It has been known.. 2012.. The ECM does have a tendency to massively over-egg amplification, or at least it used to. Remains to be seen whether or not that issue has been fixed. GFS op an outsider when compared with the GEFS mean so not too concerned for the time being. Hopefully EPS/Clusters show something closer to what we all want to see and the Op doesn't end up being out on it's own.
  22. 4 likes
    GFSP out to +96h now, quite remarkable how different it is to the GFS at such a short timescale.
  23. 4 likes
  24. 4 likes
    Encouraging to see both the ECM and GFS end up at roughly the same place by day 10 although they take a slightly different route to get there. Its really events over the ne USA and east Canada that help split the energy to the west of the UK, this allows the high to extend further north and towards Scandi . Thats around day 8 onwards so by no means certain yet. Hopefully this does land and later the models retrogress the high with a northerly in the run up to Christmas . Not too much to ask ......
  25. 3 likes
  26. 3 likes
  27. 3 likes
    Yeh seems to be recurring theme recently!!evening runs more amplified then back to rubbish runs in the mornings!!dunno why thats happening to be fair!
  28. 3 likes
  29. 3 likes
    Yes, very poor GFS. UKMO best so far, GEM looking good too. We are still in the game!
  30. 3 likes
    GFS has an E and potential battleground - these ensembles all on the rise for mid Dec - but all agreement for cold dip at 8/12 though
  31. 3 likes
    Will add if you live in North East USA you will be witnessing a 30 odd degree increase in upper air temperature between 192h and 240 on the ECM! Not a good run for you ha
  32. 2 likes
    Some showers this morning and early this Afternoon, but they were light-moderate, fairly gusty too! Some more brighter spells later on with winds easing High today 14.4'c Currently 10.1'c which is the lowest so far today. Rainfall 0.4mm
  33. 2 likes
    06z far better run, just been looking through the ensembles, very much an upgrade compared to 00z. Sorry can't post any charts right now. I thought they looked better frosty on the whole, the mean is an improvement, with a few dodgy members as usual.
  34. 2 likes
    Member 10 shows us what happens when we get to much energy to our north! Ensembles not looking that great with 3 in 4 clappsing the high and the rest only a few showing anything like the operation.
  35. 2 likes
    HA HA HA - 12.0!!!!! - Anyway, i am really determined to win this year - TBH the seasonal winter one is closest to my heart - obviously the yearly one is like being world number 1 in tennis, golf or snooker etc, IMO though the winter one is the most prestigious, its like Winning the world championship in snooker or probably more accurately, its like winning Wimbledon, the other seasonal ones are still major's but the winter one just takes the biscuit. Individual monthly wins are a bit like winning a Grand Prix in Formula 1, its a very big thing even if you finish 200 pts behind the world champion, its still a big thing in isolation.
  36. 1 like
    Absolutely. Would rather have it that way round as opposed to the the other way which is what we have become accustomed to over the last few years.
  37. 1 like
    Whoop whoop, that's a pleasing update! Needless to say caution required as usual with all long range forecasts.
  38. 1 like
    Latest BBC forecast presented by Darren Bett going for colder air to win out. A very large area of high pressure cementing itself over Scandinavia, pulling in increasingly cold conditions next week. Air coming from a long way east. For the time being, cold and wintry at times for northern areas. Mild/very mild at times for the south.
  39. 1 like
    Yes indeedy, and this is exactly why this run is so exciting. No one beats the ECM in the mid term T144-T192.
  40. 1 like
    The models only show a 3-4-day spell of colder, quiet stuff anyway. At least when one resists the temptation to post Perturbation X...?
  41. 1 like
    I refer to my previous comments regarding the discussion of AGW for or against, in isolation...if it is part of the discussion on how Solar minimum will affect climate and weather, and the interaction of today's CO2 against that of say pre-Industrial Revolution then fair enough, but please try not to make comments solely about AGW..
  42. 1 like
    click on the maps here http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bournemouth-Pier/seatemp
  43. 1 like
    As mentioned in the other thread this is a critical period of the evolution and the gfs brings the next low north and then east as the subtropical high ridges in mid Atlantic.so more rain on Sat/Sunday with the surface wind veering northerly The ridge slides east over the UK during the beginning of next week but much is going on upstream with explosive cyclogenesis occurring along the baroclinic zone of the eastern seaboard and all of this energy exerts tremendous pressure on the ridge. And just to reiterate this is according to the gfs
  44. 1 like
    EC clusters say... maybe Would need clusters 2 or 4 to be right (preferably 4) Interestingly the control cluster, which didn't look great at D8, looks like a potential easterly at D12 while the others have let westerlies back in
  45. 1 like
    We really are seeing some stunning charts at the moment it really is a thing of beauty
  46. 1 like
  47. 1 like
    You know the cold potential has come back when there are over +150 members here!
  48. 0 likes
    Ok everyone, back on topic please. And while the main focus of this thread is solar influences, please refrain from parroting climate contrarian talking points please, especially if you want to maintain the ability to keep posting here.
  49. 0 likes
    Probably go over 10c today, balmy mild night, nowhere got under 10c, and today we are seeing temps of 13-15c widely at 12.00. I was tempted to go for a very mild 6.6c but at the last minute I thought I'd take my chance with this upcoming cold snap coming to fruition, and possibly turning into something a little more memorable. More a case of hopecasting that anything else if I'm honest, anyway ended up going for the 4,4c that no one had picked and was tempting me with this little voice saying...pick me, pick me.....
  50. 0 likes
    The weather this week stays unsettled with more spells of wind and rain as a strong jet stream drives low pressure systems our way. Read the full update here
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