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Most of you will like what the 500 mb EC-GFS shows this morning, especially the EC. Both have increased the +ve heights and ridging towards Greenland with a flow N of W into the UK and on into the marked trough/cut off low each shows over Europe. It remians to be seen if NOAA this evening also goes along similar lines which it showed last evening. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Morning all, a visit to the refreshment hutte along the Advent Path. Hot Gluewein and the sweet smell of oranges and cinnamon. You just know Christmas time has arrived. First day of our new ski -season today, so excited about that. Regarding the models another step in the right direction with some kind of agreement with ECM and GFS for blocking to develop. The GEFS control model below out at 192t brings this develop a little bit closer with each run. You would expect the trough out east to sharpen into a long wave pattern out to period 240t with a switch to a NEly flow into the British Isles. We will have to wait for further consistency and the support from other models including the UKMO before we can confidently predict a more sustained cold spell to develop, but a big step in the right direction this morning. Our own singular model has consistently shown this development for some time now in the Medium to long range forecast. I will get an update from them on Monday morning to see if they still hold to this line of thought but in the meantime going to get my skis out and see if my body is still in sync with them !

Just laugh out loud. FV3 is just awesome, whether you are a coldie or a mild obsessive, you have to look at this and go 'WOW'!

No comment on the ECM ? Why ? It’s bloody brilliant . Oh yes sir .

Thinking back to yesterday, the gfs runs were very mobile in week 2 but because they got enough amplification in the crucial phase, the ridge gained latitude and the Atlantic undercut. The 00z op is trying but the pattern is too far to the east and it get overrun ....the para just doesn’t quite get it right in fi but it isn’t far away from a good back end to week 2. both runs have a different polar profile to gem and ec whereby the Canadian vortex begins to exchange low heights to Asia on our side of the pole - remember my posts early last week on this - unless you have a strong upper ridge already in place forcing split flow then that exchange over our side of the polar field is curtains for us to go cold in this phase. incidentally, my fence sitting staying 50/50 after yesterday’s output is predicated on the extended clusters over the past couple days really not running with a solidly wintry offering more than 15%. Whilst there are five on offer, only one of the five shows that persistence in the pattern ...... I’m waiting to see this increase - the eps are running to day 15 at a similar resolution to the gfs op to day 10. they are capable of deciphering a difficult solution. Once I see these clusters gaining momentum on a sustained scandi ridge with some split flow to keep it in place then i’ll be content to jump off that fence.

And so... the final run of the Autumn signs off with this outrageous offering... I’ve been around the block enough times to know this. When we are genuinely staring down the zonal barrel, the charts simply do not show this. Not even in FI. And certainly not to the extent that, albeit still only a minority, these charts are cropping up. We are not looking at a flat jet 3 - 4 week zonal onslaught. There are times when, yes, that is the case in UK winters, but this is not one of those times. Of course - we could end up with just that, a mild zonal December. But there is clearly a blocking signal later in the month. Granted, not a strong signal by any means, but it’s there. The MJO will likely be passing through the wrong phase at that time but it doesn’t control our weather, it only influences it. To my mind, Wave 1 displacement could be the big player here, keeping the vortex on the NW side but more NW than default. This will encourage heights to build NE and very robust ones too. Think Feb 1991. Which is why I don’t get those who have already written off the month. Bizarre. Note, I am not predicting one outcome or the other (just yet), just pointing out that at this juncture it is completely wrong and misleading to rule anything out from mid month to the end of the month.

De Tweet bekijken van @MJVentrice: If Michael Ventrice is right things are starting to look good for us as this configuration is often a precursor for a ssw

Best easterly of all time for snow? Remember the high north sea sst's

Great to see today has kicked on from yesterday's marked improvements. no surprise of course, but nice to see still nevertheless. As has already been mentioned, the the Met have now acknowledged the unmistakable possibility (not before time) in their 16-30 dayer. I've made my point in the relevant thread regards that! The real test is coming soon, as these sort of charts start slipping into hi-res zone (or not as the case may be!). Knowing what we know, 50/50 is a good shout at this juncture.

The lastest control run does indeed show a dramatic switch to E/ne Flow across the British Isles at 240t. ( see above post )Now we need to see some consistency in the next few runs especially period 168t-240t.. C

Massive drop in the GFS ensembles compared to earlier ?? (White, second set are from earlier and black from this evening )

Wrap around WATCH!!.. the migrate-of upper forms should aid it... Retro..then align.. @scandi... =easterly/ne-flow!!!

This looks very good to me !

Just a quick heads up. The meto 16 to 30 day update is much more positive for coldies. The cold theme makes a welcome return in their forecast.

My reverse psychology by issuing downbeat expectations for blocking yesterday has worked this morning looking at the models! Maybe should have stuck with my post back on Monday (above), perhaps the models are finally picking up on the lag response of a more amplified MJO through 7-8-1 now. However, a way to go yet, blocking signal increasing for 2nd week of December for now as TPV to the NW retreats, jet buckles over UK and the Euro trough, but will it position favourably? At least the 00z EPS and GEFS mean singing from the same hymn sheet at day 10.

Depends who you call a knowledgeable one on here! But all joking aside, imo never dismiss the Met Office, they're genuinely one of the best in the world.

GFS putting on a Saturday evening show - no complaints with this as an option for Day 10..

GEFS 6z also looking better . Some cold members now appearing, going towards the -10 850s mark .

FV3 6z has the most stressed looking strat vortex I've seen so far, with power to add by the looks of it, T384: I'm very happy with the output this morning, given the uncertainty there are going to be weak runs, but the trend looks clear and following the expectation from the background signals as I understand them. The pattern looks to be a ridge pushing up in the Atlantic to our west day 8-10 and building towards Scandi. Take that after two days of rubbish runs previously! Welcome to winter, by the way, it only starts today, even though we've been talking about model output relevant to winter for what seems like ages!

Looks like this morning’s 00Z GEM run may just do the same thing too. Swiftly develops amplification in the Atlantic towards the end of the run with the Western UK High getting sucked up North. Colder air draining down from the North and North-East with the Atlantic terminated. Looks like the amplified High Pressure system may poke its way towards Scandinavia if the run was to go out any further. Still may be worth keeping the sledge locked away in the shed (or wherever it’s kept) for now until confidence increase further regarding this sort of set up. Not bad anyway.

Excellent runs this morning in my opinion, ECM and GEM the pick, GFS and FV3 get to day 10 with good amplification too. And in the strat, the vortex is pushed a long way from home...T 384:

The ECM mean and op are all over the place after Tuesday. The general trend is down after the 7th it's just how low the means peaks at -3 on the 850's whereas the op is peaking around -7c

The ECM starting to look very interesting for the second week in December onwards. Hopefully the GFS will start getting into a Christmassy mood shortly,I think it might. Then we may well be staring down the barrel of a mid December direct hit from the "Beast from the East" ! Its December so, put up the tree - check, make my first mince pies - check, write to Santa - check. Dear Santa, please can we have some Narnia scenes delivered to the UK before Christmas !

Where is everyone? The charts are looking good this morning. Surprised there’s not more excitement. The runs where terrible 36 hours ago , they have now flipped and are looking excellent.

Models have gone from horrendous zonal as some took as gospel.....and in sane breath yoi can’t take as gospel what we have now. BUT, the propensity for cold to dominate is back in play after a few days of it being off the table according to the Ops. Let it develop....because it IS developing..... don’t be shocked if there is snow to fall in further south places over next 7 - 10 days than being forecast currently....even if transient in nature BFTP

Yes EC would be dry and cold 168 onwards.. If nights clear we will get to see the benefit of short days, temps will plumet in December . Confidence increasing slowly that a cold high is coming, then the potential for something even colder from the east?

GFS. Nice. Will take that for starters.Does the ECM fancy bettering this... ? An astonishingly rapid and extreme jet buckle between D7 and D10 occuring on this run, driving WAA up towards Greenland.The GFS 18z played at it but this is the real McCoy. Let's hope this signal is the right one going forwards. The GFS has set the standard! Over to the rest...

Looking forward to the 12s today then after a big swing on the output over the last 24hrs, ICON and UKMO finish too soon to see the main action, but GEM right on the money first up at T210:

FV3 certainly develops a big Scandi block, not as well aligned as some of last nights runs, but that's all to play for later, the signal for blocking remains clear, T300:

I took my usual couple of days break away from scrutinising every run, looking for any semblance of hope, only to be greeted with zonal, after zonal after zonal... Glad I came back today, great runs full of white goodness and hope springing eternal! So I'm the reason the NWP look a damned sight better! No need to thank me

Nice to see all models heading in the cold direction.How cold? and whether we get snow still to be decided but lovely trend as we head deeper into December that's for sure. I might even start to feel festive if this carried on lol.?️?️?️

Well you get to T240 and the ECM mean is saying yes, this cold period is going to start, what next, open to question, at 10 days this is one hell of a signal from the ECM mean. Not a bad first day of winter!

Not checked the output since this morning, but very pleased to see that things are coming along nicely now. Blocked well before Christmas seems to be the repeated scenario, and lots of very cold air being shown for Europe once we get that easterly flow, giving the potential of some very cold air for us eventually. I can hear Bing Crosby tuning up his voice already !

ECM is in on the action. Huge cold pool covering Europe.

So, GFS brings festive goodies for all. I'm not going to drop the optimism i have had for days but i would caution about getting carried away with a GFS op, there is much energy in the Atlantic to be resolved before popping the champagne open, i would want to be seeing the T+192 chart at T+72 before being 100% confident. Sorry if that sounds patronizing - its not meant to be, steady as she goes. BUT , what a lovely run up to Christmas that would be!!Sooooooo much better than wind and rain!

Things which are quicker than the GFS Parallel FV3...

Huge amplification, shooting straight up this one GFS at T216:

Oh yes yes gfs 12z . Come on my son

Well done and Congratulations to all the winners and Thanks to everyone taking part. Yearly Summary Monthly Winners and Correct Predictions Seasonal Winners

Good post. And notes the mother lobe limpit-situ.. But wave destruct in 'perfect' measure. As responces play kiss chase... And in the middle is the boy with all the girls!!!. Honestly..there is serious miss diagnosis here... And the vig-vortex is a little light years away here...as the data is still not prog-of the melting in the alaskan/canadian needle..pin in balloon strike... Which as we gain through raws...and indeed/supports..will jump out with notable insight!!.. The pressing of trop-teasing..has took the dinner money @the strat..'overall'. And i reiterate...some twisting and munip-..will be the order....as 4 mid/latter prognosis!!!! As the rapid connects, gain. Again the pv-as a whole is a scared wolf..driven from the pack... Look 4 dramatic ens shake...and indeed..some reevaluation-of dec-formats/forecasts!!!

Slowly slowly catchy monkey!!

excellent output from all models however I will hold back my excitement until the Met Office fully come on board remember folks these charts are still 10 days out let us not get too carried away just yet.

My winter forecast take that location with open arms

Look at this . -11 850s knocking on the door .

Clear...and concise... The vortex is in the dock....and going DOWN!!!...

T216 . Looking wicked.

Steady as she goes!! EC det is an eye opener and is moving EXACTLY as i hoped it would, the 'vaccum' in the jet exploited by the az ridge, plenty of water to go under the bridge, IF IF IF we get some consistency over the next 24-48 hours Exeter may have to review the mild wet stormy outlook into December ..

I feel also that everything is slowly falling into place for blocking and cold outbreaks, a key period will be 19 to 23 Dec with a high energy peak that may occur as blocking starts to develop. That could produce diving low pressure (NW-SE track) followed by much colder temperatures in Britain and Ireland. The North American cold regime that was quite robust around mid-November has weakened somewhat in response to the onset of a classic west coast El Nino pattern (this sometimes brings mild Pacific air across the whole continent) but unlike say 1982-83 this El Nino is weaker and trying to lift a lot of weight with that earlier established eastern arctic blocking cold attached to Baffin Island - Greenland high pressure. So the December outlook in North America is for some resumed cold outbreaks into central and eastern regions, and the usual El Nino warmth in the west. I don't think it will overwhelm the jet stream and force a constant southwesterly, the recent spell has been that temporary response to the first major cold spells in NA. But it won't get worse, just oscillate between weaker versions of same and blocking. If blocking became very robust before that energy peak then we could see an undercut like Jan 1 1979, probably something like that will happen at a later peak such as 3-6 Jan or 17-21 Jan. Would be surprised and seek out a safe place if there isn't at least one good wintry episode this winter and earlier than last year's injury time miracle.

Slightly incorrect - A raging vortex over Greenland & NE canada can preclude deep cold from the East ( a la 91 ) however it does restrict any block over Greenland- That said if a scandi block wants to retrograde NW it will just move the vortex aside..