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If you 'cared' to view...or look @ other formats posted...ie mjo phasing strat develops... Then quoting latter frames of a raw..operational carry weight...and balance. Its not a 1 hit wonder of a possible/probabile evolution. It mass trending....even expectation of eventual exactions! Edit:.. And this is indeed the hunt 4 cold thread. So id like your exactions for balance of late nov/dec likelyhood...as what been elaborated is far from meteorlogical fiction!???...

384 hours out or not, what a stonker of a chart hemispherically.

Sorry, but no. Firstly this is the "hunt for cold" thread, so it's hardly a surprise members are posting.. you know, cold charts. Secondly, there is a good basis to expect blocking to begin appearing within the models in the extended. I've been saying for over a week now that I expect blocking charts to become increasingly frequent for the end of November and that seems to now be happening. Reasoning? For almost the entire season so far we've had blocking somewhere over Scandinavia/Siberia/Europe that is disrupting the usual West>East movement of the jet stream, we've seen some unsettled weather but largely down to low pressure stalling to the West of the UK as per the chart above, this has allowed continuous warm flux of air into the polar regions which has this week caused a minor disruption to the Strat Vortex (though, only minor) with it temporarily displacing closer to Siberia. The Strat/Trop disconnect is continuing and I suspect will do so until the +QBO decends through the Atmosphere during the second part of winter. The trop vortex isn't firing despite what was at one point a record breakingly strong Stratospheric vortex. EC/GEFS are both trending colder in the extended, despite the large amount of scatter there's very clearly a downward trend there, the signal is there but due to the huge amount of scatter (often happens when a pattern switch is taking place) it's rather muted. The ECM clusters tell a more telling story, the majority 37% going for a huge Scandinavian block MJO forecasted to move through phase 4 which signals heights to the North/North-East So, no. We're not "straw clutching" we're predicting what the models are likely to show based on a number of factors and the models do seem to be picking up on that trend today. There's a few of us going for a cold end to November and the fact the models are now starting to show that is rather encouraging. I don't expect record breaking cold by any means, but certainly a switch to something below the seasonal average for the last third of the month, cold possibly deepening as we go into December thanks to further attacks on the PV.

So we now watch, sit and wait. I posted many times and days ago that last 3rd and late month will see a cold pattern take hold and to look fo E/NE feed. I was pulled up for not producing charts to support, well they weren’t reaching that far and of course I don’t use them to forecast. But maybe when I can I’ll post some. But I remain in same call. The switch likely to be swift, ushering in an early cold start to winter during December. Deep FI on GFS on more than one run now sniffing at this....so we watch sit and wait. Let the ‘real’ Hunt commence! BFTP

Eps clusters headed to 70/30 scandi upper ridge against euro slug .... easterly/ continental feed becoming cooler over time looking current favourite ......would expect some cold pooling into w Russia by the end of week 2

Well this is the hunt for cold model thread isn't it so I don't see any problem with that in the slightest & I have no idea why you you feel the need to moan about posters who are using this thread correctly!?? Seriously, did you confuse this model thread with the main one or what?

Big changes from the latest cpc 8-14 day outlook,yes my eye's are fully wide open,check this out last night's had a trough from Newfoundland extending towards the BI,now look,big Scandi high and the trough receeded to mid Atlantic this at the moment is a game changer.

I guess we all have our own reasons for spending umpteen years indulging in a ritual hunt for snow...Well, my own was caused by waking-up on this particular morning:

Oh yes sir! - as good a positioned and strength 2 wave attack on the vortex as you can get, and the icing on the case is a surface cold E'ly to enjoy while you then wait for that aforementioned pattern to really reap the rewards in a few weeks time.

Best 384h anomalie chart I’ve seen so far this season.

Key thing about 1986 for me is that the embryonic vortex took a substantive early season hit via 2 separate wave 2 events both tied into tropospheric patterns. This in effect destabilised the vortex allowing for its eventual demise via displacement event. This gave the tropospheric pattern breathing space during December to manifest what we would associated with a moderate end Nino event with regard to December - January evolution of a -NAO. Note two separate Wave 2 events during the autumn and early winter, the second resulted in a substantive deceleration of the upper level winds registered in both MERRA and NCEP data sets. 10 hPa zonal wind declined from that point onwards, culminating in the warming event later in January. So, as is nearly always the case, a combination of factors at play and no one smoking gun, but the choreography of the upper and lower parts of the atmosphere can be followed through the autumn and subsequent winter months.

I thought this was the moans thread for a minute,oh wait a minute, there is one i cannot see what the problem is with posting charts that the models are showing whether it be 0-384 hrs or even 1074 what the cfs churts out,it's all fun in trying to decipher what will happen down to 0hrs,yes it looks to become milder but we are trying to find out what will happen afterwoods,and looking at the ens graph below shows just this looking at the gefs ens panel below(384 hrs) you can see there are plenty of blocking scenario's close to or over the uk and that signal is getting stronger the gefs ens mean animated chart below shows a retrogression of the block migrating from Europe towards the Atlantic and the latest jma shows more of an amplified pattern at 192 compared to yesterday evenings 204 right,i am logging off for now to watch man utd v juventus,be back later guys and keep it friendly

Goodness gracious, some fairly notable solutions on offer this evening: As ever, there's a big mix and those are some of the outstanding ones. But the one constant theme to take away from the low res runs - and that's all we can take away from them given the timeframe - is the sheer pre-eminence of high pressure (either over the UK, Scandi, Iceland, or Greenland). There are only 2 or 3 runs without a massive block of HP somewhere in our vicinity. That is all I need at the moment, given the background signals, to feel increasingly optimistic about what could develop in the medium term.

The last frame of GFS 12z has a stonking cold pattern setting up with regression written all over it. I'm afraid as always it is a game of patience but we should be encouraged at deep FI throwing up such possibilites as we already know any cold potential won't be realised until end of November, early December if all goes well.

Oh god can we just leave this alone now! @geordiesnow, this is the "hunt for cold thread"! I'm quite happy, along with countless others, for +300 charts to be used in the hunt for said cold. I really don't know what your problem is for those of us enjoying the discussion! Regardless if it involves mostly FI charts!

But it's not, because it's what we've been expecting to see within the models for that time period, the time period myself and a few others are expecting things to turn colder is only just coming into range of the models so the fact we're seeing charts that we are expecting to see show up is a good sign that things are getting in the right direction, that's the point I'm making here. Of course, at that range charts are likely to massively chop and change and I'm certainly not saying the 12z has it nailed on at 300+ hours, merely that those are the types of charts we were expecting to be seeing show up. The models have been "trending towards" a flatter pattern for quite literally weeks now, then as soon as things move into the more reliable timeframe the models realise the block is stronger and the Atlantic is held back, I haven't seen anything to suggest that, that is going to change. Anomaly charts point towards a robust block in the 8-10 day period, certainly nothing there suggesting a flat pattern to me. 24th-30th November is the period of interest, just outside the models range so the fact we're not seeing bitterly cold charts at T144 is hardly shocking to anyone.

So its ok for posters to call out several people for posting FI charts?? what part of `hunt for cold thread` do people not understand???

This signal/signals ARE FIRMLY THERE!.. And it will be worth noting/viewing even the 10hpa strat- raw data in the nxt 48 hrs... Mjo-phasing and displacement, options..leave the door firmly open...for uk/nw-euro cold....going forwards...late nov/-early dec.... Watch evolvement!

The thing is, the extreme cold period in Jan 87 occurred before the SSW which had nothing to do with it. In fact it was the repeated northern blocking causing the cold for the UK which also led to wave 1 forcing producing the displacement SSW. In the paper "Diagnostic Comparison of Tropospheric Blocking Events with and without Sudden Stratospheric Warming", Colucci & Kelleher (2015) highlight blocking centred at 62.5°N 355°E between 12-18/1/87 as preceding the SSW on 23/1/87. The chart below shows geopotential at 250mb with high pressure to the north of the UK with the easterly flow on the southern flank - source: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0160.1 This is the time of the record breaking UK cold. With regards to the MJO, 10mb zonal winds reached record levels at times during November 1986, and remained above average until the last 10 days of December. They only reduced significantly after the first third of January. Likewise November WAF was generally below average and only picked up towards the end of December. The time lag involved is far in excess of the accepted influence meaning that it was unlikely to be a direct factor - indeed another phase of Indian Ocean MJO initiated before the SSW occurred.

In 1978 the furthest we could forecast was 3 days ahead. The T+96 surface prog along with some thickness lines was being trialled but I think it was about 1980 when that became an operational tool and the T+120 soon after. This is IF my memory serves me correctly-a big ask these days!

Just a few words to remember- It's only fair for people to back up there thoughts and expectations of eventual evolutions with charts even if they are well beyond the reliable if they feel they support them. It's also only fair for people to comment for or against such thoughts and expectations preferably with justified reasons. However, I'm not going to name names, but I've been on the forum quite a long time now, and I do tire of certain posters generally negative tone and inability to come up with reasoned balanced justifications. I know the culprits..

Running the risk of being termed a 'straw clutcher', the late stages of the GFS really do show some mouth-watering synoptics. Of course the outcome won't be an exact match but there's a consistency with its FI output that gives some cause for optimism. Allied to that, the similarities between the ECM and GFS 240 charts are notable, we could just be heading for a cracking start to winter 2018/19. It's been posted several times already, but it's worth showing again. Superb chart! Could it be possible that the massive strat warming last Feb is still having some ramifications?

So EC/GFS now pretty much on the same page by day 10- Atlantic to run out of steam 2nd half of November?

That's completely untrue. Of course the majority of the time anything modelled beyond 10 days is unlikely to happen statistically, however I have seen on numerous occasions evolutions at t+384h pan out.

Pretty sure Dec 1962 started off with a cold surface easterly before retrogression to the main event! Promising signs.

This is a chart we need to allude to in the hunt for a prolonged colder spell to set in . All a bit of a slow burner regarding the synoptic developments, but in many ways this is usually the best route. Split jet with warm advection towards Greenland which will also aid increasingly cold advection down the Eastern side of the Block. The cut off low in the Atlantic to under cut ever more slowly as this should help to hold the Atlantic Ridge longer . Looks promising to me. All far out in predictive terms but the building blocks are starting to show in the last few runs. C

Grand solar minimum charts like these are very plausible this year but time will tell. Spotless days current stretch 20 days Year to date spotless days 186 days

Ok, the view from over here regarding the hunt for cold in the UK suggests a peak in the mild temps around bout 17th. This sort of indicated by London 850mb temp Ensembles ( below ) and then a colder spell to follow for the last 3rd of the month. Its not unusual to see a cold spell follow quite dramatically after a peak in upper temps. Their own model charts still show a build of pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles with lowering of temps from 20th November with its % prediction showing a rise past 30% ( which I am told shows an increase in predictive confidence ) Later charts post (23rd ) also still show some kind of retrogressive of the block with first hint of some snow spikes for the UK. C

384 bugger! snow possible too on 23rd, hope good charts don't stay post 300

What an upgrade from the 12z EC clusters.

have to admit i like this time of year knowing that we have time on our side to get the cold goodies in, especially when the bigger members start mentioning things getting interesting etc. but unfortunately there’s always a couple that like to get on the wind up for a reaction of some sort trying to hold on to the mild crud. Anyway here’s to a freezing December. we live in hope

Just for the record, im not expecting November to come out as anything other than mild (ignore my CET forecast for the purposes of this discussion - ,my view has changed since then), however there are many GEFS ensembles showing exceptional WAA through the pole and i would guess the eps are trending that way given the cooling on the ECM graph, also the met office even predicting colder and drier end Nov into December so we are talking about at the very least a month to a month and a half before any severe cold possible but if some of the advertised NH patterns materialise, i will give a cast iron guarantee that at some point during the first half of winter, the UK will be looking at a cold spell.

The 'boat floting' continues... and as longer range signals....raw data getting the hint...remember...late nov-early dec..are paramount flagging for a drop into winter territory...so if these outs dont wet your whistle...all given... Then not much will... Imo we-are in a superior exactions.... Cross scale !!!

The mean alone telling a story!!.. Seem to be at the point bases-where some of us assumed going deeper into november.....big stepping stone forwards today.

And here, for comparison, is the chart for November 7 1978, when I doubt many folks knew what was coming?

So we should discount the Met office 16 to 30 day outlook then,if it wasn't any good then they shouldn't produce it,ok it's not a dead cert but i would side by them this is not a dig at you as i am a balanced person and i respect all views on here the signals are looking good but i am on the fence for now as we all know things do change so lets wait and see.

Round 2...some more meat on the bones. Since this LRF The sun is now running at 186 blank days and a current consecutive stretch of 20 spotless days. What does this mean.....imo bouts of serious northern blocking and a wild meandering jetstream for this winter....with a displaced southerly track. There are some new moon/apogee and full moon/perigee in close proximity 2nd week Dec, just before Xmas and also at beginning of 2nd week Jan. Also of mportance I think there will be an unusual but mot unprecedented more active period of Earth facing Coronal Holes, bringing strong solarwind pulses Earth bound. This will perturb the jetstream. So I think general snow in early December but the period of Christmas to early New Year is of particular note. I think we will see some strong activity from the Atlantic meeting a very cold block thus forcing any advancements on an undercut scenario. This period to bring ‘disruptive’ weather to the U.K. and Ireland. I still feel early January will bring the coldest weather of winter with snowfields aplenty temps under HP conditions will plummet. January to then continue generally very cold with another problematic period backend. winter of discontent....I’m comfortable with the theme, as the idea is of disruption with LPs undercutting rather than record cold....although early Jan to watch for. One of the next 3 to match a 20th century ‘great’....I am aware that we are (relatively) we are at a warmer point/phase.....but this one looks very interesting. BFTP

Yes, its no good people saying 'ECM does not show cold' because it does not go far enough, not thinking of anyone in particular of course!

Yes, if that apparent mis write shall we call it had been sent out in my days whoever wrote it would already be explaining to the senior man why he had written such a final sentence, and just what did he mean! Quality control, be it spell check, grammar or content seems to be missing at times.

Could this be the start of something special like another 2010 once gfs received the signal it never dropped it big swing started last night.

Nice run from the GFS again . Keeping up the high pressure theme . Oviously varying from run to run . It ends well too . ( and yes this is a T384 chart lol )

Cool pool advective west.

Significant warm air advection is showing up for later next week on both GFS and ECM, and this does indeed bode well for height rises to set up shop over the pole and to our NE.. it will inflate the ridge and combined with a sluggish jet, an undercut could be the end result.. always a believer significant mild can often be quickly followed by notable cold and vice versa.. usually happens more so in Spring with the classic northerly switch to southerly and back.. but its very notable at a time when the atlantic should be going into turbo charge it appears to want to run out of steam having never really switched into mid gear it seems..

Let's move on to Model Discussion "Hunt for cold" please.

If you don't like what's being posted in here you could always use the other thread instead you know? it won't be so isolated then will it. Anyway I see plenty of posts in the other thread on a daily basis, so tbh i'm not sure what your on about.

Swearbox, now! A question: what's with the idea that one cannot be hunting for cold and be realistic, at the same time?

TheENS even by day 10 look very interesting - I imagine a better set coming than earlier. Chilly and dry by mid month looks a good shout, then we need the high pressure to play ball and retrogression to happen

Yep signal still there as was with 06z doesn't have to narnia every run but as long as signal is there.

Gets the feeling of an impressive run coming up here 6z gfs... And more importantly..'perhaps' the begining-of the start.....to unraveling block formats/vortex disrupt on a notable scale!!.. Its been begging....so to be expected. The euro/iberian high is aligning more and more favourably...as we gain!

Morning all, these two mid month charts from ECM interests me most in the hunt for cold. Note the cold pool over the Balkans, should this pan out, will be a bit of shock to our neighbours to the Southeast. The month started with a 32c temp recorded in this region and projected temp by 17th of 0c in some parts. That's some change ! However, the second chart shows an monster Euro/ Asian block, almost from Biscay to the Pacific. So based on these charts a fall in temps seem likely as we enter the last 3rd of the month after such a warm spell for many in Euroland. Should get an update from our forecast providers later this morning for our resort planning and hopefully a wider view ( UK). C