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Ok got an update this morning from the team .No change for the next 5 days, however by weekend indications of a weakening of the block that should allow some progress of Atlantic weather fronts past the meridian followed by a slow falling of temperature thickness values generally across much of Western Europe. So turning less mild next weekend for many. Next, I asked the reasoning for their predictions of a colder last third of the month ( with specifics to UK) Their forecast model continues to show a projected jet stream at 300mb and 200mb levels less than active or penetrative towards the British Isles with a buckle south. This should eventually allow "opening up of the isobars" and allow ridging of high pressure over or towards the British Isles, possible with retrogressing further North and West with time. ( Hence a colder last 3rd of the month ). Hope this helps, of course this is only one view from over here but maybe along the lines of UKMO longer term forecast for the months end. C

Well I’m seeing some ideas appearing in FI...best folk ease back a bit...there will be changes to come....keep hunting as I think we’ll find some cold....but NOT to be expected until after midmonth and for real signs of it.....later in the month. Let’s not get too despondent...the jet is not flat. BFTP

Not a shock either because widespread cold and snow is unusual in the first two thirds of November at anyway.

Thanks knocker. Useful to come over to this thread for a dose of reality rather than seeing P14 of the 18z GFS run which shows cold weather at 300 hours, when we all know that it's standard wet, windy and generally mild November weather in the offing for the next 10-14 days at least.

P19 has a nice pattern with the lows diving south some interesting patterns in the GEM ensembles from the 0z run P9 pick of the bunch P8 just shows how much the models are struggling with the difference in the pressure forecast for Oslo Friday Today Very difficult to say whether the pressure will go higher or lower in Reykjavik Greenland pretty split too I think the ups and downs will continue in the models this week with some runs going more unsettled and some keeping the high to the east stronger with more of a blocked pattern.

Reads thread. Looks great for cold prospects Goes away for a week Comes back. Reads thread. Looks poor for cold prospects Shrugs shoulders and goes away for another week.....

Gfs 6z at 240h Quite a difference compared to its previous run ( which you would expect at day 10) shows us under a northerly of sorts with ridging towards greenland. Not artic weather by any means but will feel seasonal

I quite like the ECM , oviously not the wind and rain on it but the PV is still very disorganised. The whole way through the run high pressure around the globe punching into the pole . Patience friends patience.

Something’s brewing in the last third of November! Interesting looking chart for next Sunday on the GFS 12z

If only weeks. It has been seven months at least. Not sure what we can realistically expect from the upcoming winter. Spring and summer was the warmest on record here. Autumn will probably be the same with the way November is progressing. I don't think we will see a sudden switch to cold and I'm immune to the phrase "long term background signals are looking good." They always look good until they collapse with approaching December

For those who place emphasis on pacific cycles that rise and fall in approx. 10-15 day phases it is no surprise to see the blocked pattern come under a bit of pressure. Calculated overall tendency of AAM has fallen after the October rise that brought blocking - but the steepness of that fall has been a bit of a surprise (to me at least) The collapse in atmospheric momentum you can see clearly has been steep. This is mirrored in the decline of mountain torque in the same period. The result in the atlantic is a move towards a flatter profile and no doubt storm Oscar has help invigorate the atlantic trough to the point where mild SW winds are now forecast. However the overall pattern globally is anything but flat. Note the resilience of the Euro block (continuing to aid in potential future vortex stress) My call of blocking through to mid month now appears a bit optimistic as this ridge is likely to wane from here, a few days early. But what of the end of November and into December? Note the fairly strong state of the current MJO cycle using Ventrice's useful graphic, and an MJO signal passing through phases 7 - 8 - 1 (remember Snowy Hibbo's call of this being a feature through the season) aiding in retention of a signal for blocking. Returning to the cyclical nature of the pacific we can be sure that the steep decline in relative tendency will bounce back up fairly soon as frictional and then mountain torques reengage. The question is - just how high will momentum bounce up? Given the resilience of the Euro block, and ongoing weakness of the trop vortex, I would guess that even a moderate rise in GLAAM tendency will be sufficient to reinvigorate the blocking pattern given usual lag. I am a lot less confident about picking the exact location of where the block may reemerge, but given the arrival of the east US trough that was discussed a while back I'll take a stab at a retrogressing signal that pulls heights back west from the current European zone, leaving us on the colder side of the block. So I don't think the warm atlantic trough is going to be here for long given the current state of atmospheric momentum and the pacific cycle. Latter third of November to be blocked and chilly once again. And December? The biggest player for me longer term will be the stratospheric vortex and its ability, or not, to descend and tie the troposphere to it. GFS forecasts for substantial invigoration towards month's end are in place - but frankly the sudden transformation of stratospheric forecasts last winter leaves me very suspicious of any attempt to predict vortex impact at a month's range. Personally the longer the Euro high that many on here are irritated at hangs around the better for me, because it increases the chances of distressing the vortex in the longer term via warm air advection into the pole and vertically into the stratosphere. By the start of December we are sure to be seeing the impact of the next drop in GLAAM tendency (back to the pacific cycle again....) but in a Nino year if the vortex remains decoupled and we don't get another Oscar thrown into the mix then there is every chance of the block holding on. Can it remain high enough in latitude to bring sufficient cold for lowland snow? My gut feeling is that we will need to see one more rinse and repeat pacific cycle before this happens....so I'd guess at a return of some atlantic influence into the start of December but in a context that is still rather blocked. So temperatures moderating but not raging zonality. Having said that, atlantic energy in December with blocking around can lead to stalling systems.....and rainfall totals in this scenario can be high as we have seen already this autumn in mid/south Wales. Lots of interest in snow cover, QBO influence, ENSO profile, upper/lower vortex development, MJO strength and phase still to come as we approach winter proper. For sure, however, there is enough potential in the background signals at the moment for all hunting for cold to be optimistic. Great to be entering 3-4 months of core winter wonderland hunting once again.

All the talk of EC 46 and Matt Hugo... It nearly always changes from forecast to forecast. In my humble opinion, it's not worth the algorithm that works It!

Latest tweet from Matt Hugo says that the Nov ECM seasonal maintains the risk of Northern blocking throughout the winter and more so as winter progresses. So perhaps not front loaded after all.

Well looking at these two posts^,how on earth are new folk going to learn what is going on in here,jeeeezzz!! Mike poole is right though about an amplified pattern,but in the wrong places,look at the macro scale not the micro scale(as imby) the pattern has been amplified for some time now and as long as we see this amp pattern continue it is keeping the pv on the ropes there is a long way to go yet and winter isn't for another 5-6 weeks so lets all calm down a bit aaaaannnnnd!!!!...relax I know you would probably shoot me down for showing you this 00z cfs 1 month run but it ties in with the latest Meto long range forecast was saying:- frost and fog are more likely to form overnight. These could be slow to clear during the daytime, given the time of year. At times the wind will turn northerly, causing a dip in temperatures and a greater chance of some snow, though this will probably stay over high ground in the north. run it through from here(540 hrs) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=534&mode=0&carte=1&run=11 the 06z was c**p though. i am quiet happy at the moment at watching things unfold thanks.

Further to the above post, here is a good example from GFS latest run 300t of " opening up of the isobars " C

The wording now picks out 'northerly winds' from time to time which indicates the block retrogressing west and some scandi troughing …. in line with Thursday evening's ec46 - mogreps must have moved in that direction

A downgrade! The mid-month signals of colder/drier weather becoming established have been dropped.

As an overview the gfs and ecm pretty much on the same page in the 5-10 day range. A highly amplified upstream pattern with a strong jet running up the eastern seaboard and exiting across the Atlantic Leading to some inroads being made against the stubborn block to the east and thus some periods of wet and windy weather for the UK as systems traverse west > east. The GEFS anomaly rather supports this

And while some bemoan 'another horrid GFS 0z.' The meto quietly insert the the word snow into the extended (15-30 day) outlook.

Outlook – a continuation of the battle between Atlantic energy and the block with the former ahead on points by the end of the period so unsettled and ‘warm;. And it’s worth noting again the very unusual WAA into Europe resulting from this An example being a max temp in Poland a couple of days ago of 24.6C and it’s possible it could go higher The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight Currently much of the moderate rain is over Ireland and central /southern Scotland and this will continue to move north west, in conjunction with the warn front, during the morning. Over eastern and central areas of England low cloud and patchy fog will slow lift resulting in another dry and fairly warm day, Some patchy rain may linger over western areas overnight as the front come to standstill over eastern Ireland further east it will be drier but low cloud and fog will return to central areas of England. Another quite mild night. By midday Tuesday we have the scenario mentioned in previous posts of a quite intense negatively tilted upper trough to the west putting more pressure on the block to the east Thus a surface low 963mb south west of Iceland with associated fronts pushing east into Ireland and our front, already in situ, returning as a cold front, All of this leads to another dry and very warm day, once early morning low cloud has lifted, but with rain effecting the west by late afternoon. Over Tuesday night and through Wednesday the fronts struggle slowly east bringing rain, heavy at times, to most areas as the upper trough remains fairly static. Essentially over the next two days the energy and the trough slowly gain the upper hand against the block And by Friday there is a complex area of low pressure to the west of the UK bringing rain, and becoming quite windy, to western regions whilst our old front, now a weakening occlusion, is still active further east. Temps a tad above average And the NH profile at T120

The neighbours will be pleased! I can't believe how big they are, the photo doesn't do it justice. The two big cakes at the front have a kilo of gunpowder each lol

Looking at that ecm 12z from start to finish it's about as exciting as a box set of Panorama

Seen it now, Northern blocking in December but trough anchored to the W - battleground possible, Jan anticyclonic but possibly very cold with SE winds, Feb blocking and snow.

If you play out animation of days 8-15 on GFS12z, that blocking high on the axis from Black Sea to Eastern Baltics is basically unmovable. Now 7 months and counting, I can bet it will be there on the most recent ECMWF seasonal for until at least January, then all will hope for SSW and repeat of Feb/March. Already I can see the main focus of cold this winter will be between Eastern CONUS and Eastern Asia/Siberia, -EPO,+NAO, perhaps neutral AO at times. Thanks to recent greenhouse warming effect the stratosphere is anomalously cold, there is no doubt about it, just look at relentless +NAO.

P12 shows this (yes its FI but still a possible outcome) P14 is the kind of pattern I am keeping an eye on with the scandi high heading towards Greenland possibly giving us an easterly PV very weak on P20

My take on the next 2 weeks Monday 5 November Ec-gfs and the ec has dropped the ridge extension towards Greenland, keeping the marked trough much as above, well pretty well, gfs has also klost the ridge towards Greenland and has a trough much as ec, not a closed one as above. This pattern has been evolving on them both over the past few days, so they do seem both to be suggesting an altantic, fairly strong, flow out of the trough over the e’ern states into the trough, west of the uk on ec, almost over the uk on gfs, and it looks diffluent so the probability of surface lows tending to deepen as they get into the trough is there. Noaa idiffers from the other 2 in keeping the ridge into Greenland from northern norways and shows a marked trough, as it has done for several days, over/just w of the uk and into Europe. So not total agreement although, unusually, I do suspect noaa tending more towards the other 2 over the next 2-3 days. Its 8-14 shows a w’ly with a rounded trough over/w of the uk Overall I think we are heading for a spell of atlantic dominated weather in the 6-14 day time frame. What happens after that is not somewhere I usually go but the MJO may shed some light on the probable 500 mb anomalies a week or so beyond that. (can’t find my link for this at the moment). 500 mb links below http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html ps If anyone can give me the current link to MJO and probable 500 mb anomaly charts that would be very kind?

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 4 Dec 2018: There is an increasing likelihood of drier and brighter weather becoming established across the British Isles towards the end of November and into the start of December. Outbreaks of rain look set to become more confined to the north and northwest, and even here tending to ease. With longer spells of dry, clear and less windy weather developing, frost and fog are more likely to form overnight. These could be slow to clear during the daytime, given the time of year. At times the wind will turn northerly, causing a dip in temperatures and a greater chance of some snow, though this will probably stay over high ground in the north. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Yes, i nearly pulled off the October CET - only about half a degree too low after looking gone for all money at one stage, it will take a monumental last 8 days of Nov to pull my 5.9 off this time, thats assuming the models are right for the next 2 weeks, that said though, it doesnt necessarily need a screaming NE flow to significantly lower the CET in the last week of Nov, a clear high at that time of year could easily bring some 0 or 1c max's in central England where fog is slow to clear, if you could get some overnight temps of -4 or -5c then it would only tale a week of that to shift it down.

October EWP scoring __ Hadley version (75.5 mm) Rank __ FORECASTER _______ F'cast __ Error ___ Points _T01 ___ vizzy2004 ___________ 76.0 ___ +0.5 ____ 10.0 _T01 ___ Midlands Ice Age ______75.0 ___ --0.5 ____ 10.0 _ 03 ___ DAVID SNOW ________ 75.0 ___ --0.5 _____ 9.8 (10.0 -- 0.2 for one day late) _ 04 ___ Summer of 95 ________ 78.0 ___ +2.5 _____ 9.3 _T05 __ Leo97T, Blast from the Past __80.0 ___ +4.5 _____ 9.1 each _T07 ___ Pegg24, Feb1991blizzard, _____________ The Pit, Mulzy _______ 70.0 ___ --5.5 _____ 8.6 each _ 11 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ______69.6 ___ --5.9 _____ 7.7 _T12 ___ TJM14, Don __________68.0 ___ --7.5 _____ 7.5 each _ 14 ___ Singularity ____________84.0 ___ +8.5 _____ 7.0 _(T15) _ consensus ___________84.0 ___ +8.5 _____ 7.0 _T15 ___ Dr(S)No, syed2878, Reef __ 85.0 ___ +9.5 _____ 6.8 each _T18 ___ virtualsphere _________ 86.0 ___+10.5 _____ 6.1 _T18 ___ weather-history _______ 65.0 ___--10.5 _____ 6.1 _ 20 ___ Jonboy ______________ 65.0 ___--10.5 _____ 5.9 (6.1 -- 0.2 for one day late) _T21 ___ Stationary Front ______ 87.0 ___+11.5 _____ 5.4 _T21 ___ Steve B _____________64.0 ___--11.5 _____ 5.4 _T23 ___ weather26 ___________88.0 ___+12.5 _____ 4.9 _T23 ___ Radiating Dendrite ____ 63.0 ___--12.5 _____ 4.9 _ 25 ___ seaside60 ___________ 89.0 ___+13.5 _____ 4.2 (4.4 -- 0.2 for one day late) _ 26 ___ nn2013 ______________90.0 ___+14.5 _____ 4.2 _ 27 ___ dKeane3 _____________92.0 ___+16.5 _____ 4.0 _ 28 ___ davehsug ____________ 95.0 ___+19.5 _____ 3.7 _T29___ Dami, Godber.1, _________ Roger J Smith, Doctor32 __ 55.0 ___--20.5 _____ 3.5 each _(33)___average for 1988-2017 __96.6 ___+21.1 _____ 2.7 _ 34 ___ Stargazer ___________ 53.0 ___--22.5 _____ 2.6 _T34 ___ EdStone, Relativistic, ____________ Norrance, J10 ________ 99.0 ___+23.5 _____ 2.3 each _(38)___ average for 1981-2010 _100.8 ___+25.3 _____ 1.3 _T38 ___ stewfox _____________100.0 ___+24.5 _____ 1.2 (1.4 -- 0.2 for one day late) _T38 ___ Jeff C _______________105.0 ___+29.5 _____ 1.2 _ 40 ___ Bobd29 _____________ 110.0 ___+34.5 _____ 1.0 _ 41 ___ SnowDragon _________ 111.0 ___+35.5 _____ 0.8 _ 42 ___ Born From the Void ____ 115.0 ___+39.5 _____ 0.6 _ 43 ___ CheesePuffScott ______ 117.0 ___+41.5 _____ 0.4 _ 44 ___ Polar Gael ___________ 121.3 ___+45.8 _____ 0.2 _ 45 ___ Lettucing Gutted _______200.0 __+124.5 _____ 0.0 ================================================================ Updated EWP annual scoring (Hadley version) for Dec 2017 to Oct 2018 Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct __TOTALS  _________________________________________________________________________Had_NCIC __ NCIC rank _01 __ SINGULARITY __________ 5.2 _7.0 _9.1 _7.7 _5.6 _8.4 _5.7 _9.2 _8.2 _5.8 _7.0 __ 78.9 _ 79.4 ___ 01 _02 __ JONBOY _______________8.8 _7.4 _6.7_10.0_9.4 _3.9 _0.6 _6.5 _6.4 _8.5 _5.9 __ 74.1 _ 68.5 ___ 05 _03 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _5.7 _8.4 _8.3 _9.8 _4.7 _6.8 _6.5 _8.9 _3.3 _7.5 __ 71.7 _ 69.3 ___ 03t _04 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _____3.4 _3.3 _9.1 _9.6 _3.2 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.4 _7.5 _10.0__ 68.4 _ 69.3 ___ 03t _05 __ J10 ___________________4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _7.7 _9.6 _4.3 _8.6 _5.2 _9.5 _2.3 __ 68.2 _ 69.7 ___ 02 _06 __ POLAR GAEL ___________4.6 _9.0 _9.5 _2.6 _6.9 _9.8 _8.4 _5.5 _1.8 _5.5 _0.2 __ 63.8 _ 67.2 ___ 06 _(07) _ consensus ____________ 5.2 _5.9 _5.4 _5.7_6.5 _5.9 _5.3 _8.8 _5.3 _6.8 _7.0 __ 67.8 _ 68.3 ___ (06) _07 __ NORRANCE ___________ 7.0 _2.2 _9.6 _9.3 _4.7_10.0_1.2 _3.4 _6.2 _6.8 _2.3 __ 62.7 _ 61.5 ___ 09 _08 __ DR (S) NO _____________ 9.6 _8.4 _1.2 _6.2 _5.6 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.8 _7.8 _6.8 __ 63.9 _ 66.7 ___ 07 _09 __ RADIATING DENDRITE __ 2.0 _2.4 _8.9 _4.5 _1.8 _7.0 _9.4 _9.2 _2.8 _9.0 _4.9 __ 61.9 _ 62.8 ___ 08 _10 __ SEASIDE 60 ___________ 5.8 _4.3 _5.2 _8.8_10.0_5.7 _5.9 _4.3 _1.6 _4.8 _4.2 __ 60.6 _ 58.6 ___ 14 _T11__MULZY ________________7.0 _8.8 _7.1 _0.9 _1.6 _7.2 _4.3 _8.0 _2.5 _3.3 _8.6 __ 59.3 _ 59.6 ___ 12 _T11__REEF _________________ 8.6 _5.5 _2.8 _3.8 _1.6 _8.2 _3.0 _9.8 _5.2 _4.0 _6.8 __ 59.3 _ 59.5 ___ 13 _13 __ DAVID SNOW___________ 2.2 _3.3 _9.5 _5.7 _4.7 _2.2 _7.0 _4.3 _8.7 _1.8 _9.8 __ 59.2 _ 59.9 ___ 10 _14 __ SYED2878 _____________ 4.8_10.0_3.8_5.0 _3.2 _7.0 _3.2 _1.8 _9.8 _3.3 _6.8 __ 58.7 _ 56.2 ___ 16 (15) __ average 1981-2010 ______7.6 _6.6 _5.5 _5.1 _2.7 _6.4 _3.2 _1.3 _9.9 _8.9 _1.3 __ 58.5 _ 59.0 ___(13) _15 __CHRISBELLnottheWxMAN_ 9.4 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _3.7_4.1 _9.2 _7.8 _7.3 _---- _ ---- __ 57.3 _ 58.9 ___ 13 (16) _ average 1988-2017 _______7.7 _8.3 _3.9 _3.7 _2.7 _7.1 _2.4 _0.9 _9.0 _8.2 _2.7 __ 56.6 _ 53.7 ___ (15) _16 __ BORN FROM THE VOID _ 6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _6.3 _9.6 _1.8 _7.4 _3.3 _2.0 _0.6 __ 56.4 _ 57.0 ___ 15 _17 __ STEVE B ______________ 7.4 _8.2 _3.5 _8.8 _9.4 _0.2 _5.3 _ 2.8 _3.8 _0.3 _5.4 __ 55.1 _ 52.5 ___ 18 _T18__STARGAZER ___________ 1.4 _9.6 _2.4 _7.1 _2.3 _5.1 _6.5 _5.9 _----_10.0_2.6 __ 52.9 _ 51.4 ___ 21 _T18__RELATIVISTIC __________8.0 _2.2 _8.4 _1.2 _7.5 _0.4 _0.6 _6.5 _7.5 _8.3 _2.3 __ 52.9 _ 50.6 ___ 25 _20 __ PEGG24 _______________ 9.2 _5.1 _0.7 _6.2 _6.3 _1.2 _5.3 _9.8 _0.2 _---- _8.6 __ 52.6 _ 53.6 ___ 17 _21 __ LET IT SNOW ! __________---- _---- _7.9 _6.5 _7.5 _3.7 _9.6 _0.8 _7.7 _8.8 _---- __ 52.5 _ 49.5 ___ 27 _22 __ THE_PIT _______________6.0 _1.0 _8.4 _1.4 _3.4 _9.2 _4.3 _2.6 _0.7 _6.8 _8.6 __ 52.4 _ 50.8 ___ 24 _23 __ DAVEHSUG ____________ 1.0 _1.2_10.0_4.8 _9.4 _7.0 _1.0 _2.0 _8.0 _4.0 _3.7 __ 52.1 _ 49.4 ___ 28 _24 __ WEATHER-HISTORY _____0.6 _3.3 _6.1 _2.6 _9.6 _7.6 _0.8 _7.6 _4.1 _3.3 _6.1 __ 51.7 _ 49.3___ 29 _25 __ DAMI __________________5.4 _3.9 _0.9 _5.7 _1.6 _8.2 _3.0 _6.8 _5.0 _6.8 _3.5 __ 50.8 _ 49.6 ___ 26 _T26__BOBD29_______________ 3.2 _6.6 _5.0 _5.9 _8.4 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 _0.9 _5.0 _1.0 __ 50.5 _ 52.1 ___ 19 _T26__STATIONARY FRONT ____ 1.2 _4.7 _6.5 _2.6 _0.7 _5.9 _7.4 _3.4 _8.4 _4.3 _5.4 __ 50.5 _ 51.3 ___T22 _28 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER___ ---- _---- _3.5 _8.8 _8.4 _2.6 _7.6 _4.5 _1.4 _5.3 _7.7 __ 49.8 _ 51.3 ___T22 _29 __GODBER.1 _____________ 2.4 _7.2 _5.9 _3.5 _6.3 _8.6 _0.6 _7.4 _2.8 _1.3 _3.5 __ 49.5 _ 51.9 ___ 20 _30 __ DKEANE3 ______________7.2 _7.8 _5.6 _9.1 _3.5 _2.8 _2.0 _6.7 _ ---- _---- _4.0 __ 48.7 _ 48.0 ___ 32 _31 __ JEFF C ________________ 7.6 _4.9 _1.1 _3.3 _2.7 _4.7 _5.3 _4.7_4.3 _8.5 _1.2 __ 48.3 _ 49.0 ___ 31 _32 __ ROGER J SMITH ________ 0.2 _1.8 _6.7 _9.8 _3.9 _3.5 _5.5 _3.5 _3.8 _6.0 _3.5 __ 48.2 _ 49.2 ___ 30 _33 __ STEWFOX _____________ 7.0 _9.6 _4.0 _8.9 _6.9 _0.6 _8.2 _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 __ 46.4 _ 47.7 ___ 33 _34 __ MAPANTZ ______________5.2 _6.3 _1.9 _4.3 _5.6 _9.2 _4.3 _8.6 _---- _---- _ ---- __ 45.4 _ 46.1 ___ 34 _35 __ VIZZY2004 _____________ 8.6 _8.6 _8.8 _2.6 _0.5 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _3.5 _10.0__ 42.6 _ 43.5 ___ 35 _36 __ DANIEL* _______________3.8 _5.1 _4.9 _4.3 _5.8 _5.1 _ ---- _4.9 _3.1 _---- _---- __ 37.0 _ 36.4 ___ 39 _37 __ DOCTOR32 ____________ 1.6 _3.9 _6.7 _5.0 _2.7 _1.4 _5.3 _9.4 _0.9 _---- _3.5 __ 40.4 _ 40.8 ___ 37 _38 __ VIRTUALSPHERE _______ 4.4 _1.2 _6.7 _1.6 _9.4 _3.3 _1.8 _0.6 _---- _7.3 _6.1 __ 42.4 _ 37.1 ___ 36 _39 __ SIMSHADY _____________7.8 _7.6 _0.4 _7.2 _9.4 _1.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 36.2 _ 35.8 ___ 40 _40 __ WEATHER 26 __________ ---- _4.5 _4.5 _9.5 _0.9 _5.3 _8.2 _0.4 _2.1 _0.5 _4.9 __ 40.8 _ 40.2 ___ 38 _41 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE ____ ---- _---- _2.1 _6.9 _5.6 _7.6 _9.8 _2.6 _---- _---- _---- __ 34.6 _ 34.6 ___ 41t _42 __ TIMMYTOUR ___________10.0 _0.2 _6.5 _1.7 _---- _9.2 _6.3 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 33.9 _ 33.8 ___ 43 _43 __ CHRIS. R ______________ 6.2 _0.6 _9.6 _7.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _7.0 _---- _---- _---- __ 31.3 _ 31.0 ___ 44 _44 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT ____----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 6.3 _9.0 _5.7 _0.4 _9.3 _ 0.4 __ 31.1 _ 29.7 ___ 45 _45 __ ALEXISJ9 ______________2.8 _6.1 _1.9 _---- _0.2 _1.0 _3.0 _4.1 _9.4 _ 2.3 _---- __ 30.8 _ 34.6 ___ 41t _46 __ TJM14 ________________ ----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 5.9 _5.9 _1.6 _ 9.1 _---- _ 7.5 __ 30.0 _ 27.9 ___ 48 _47 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST _ 0.8 _0.0 _3.5 _2.6 _---- _4.7 _---- _---- _6.8 _0.8 _9.1 __ 28.3 _ 29.3 ___ 46 _48 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ___---- _---- _---- _0.5 _7.1 _---- _----_5.3 _6.4 _7.3 _---- ___ 26.6 _ 28.0 ___ 47 _49 __ ED STONE _____________4.4 _1.6 _4.2 _1.2 _2.1 _---- _1.2 _1.0 _5.9 _1.0 _2.3 __ 24.9 _ 25.4 ___ 49 _50 _ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS 8.2_----_----_---- _---- _ ---- _7.2 _8.8 _---- _---- _---- __ 24.2 _ 24.6 ___ 50 _51 __ LEO97T_______________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 8.2 _ 5.2 _ ---- _9.1 __ 22.5 _ 22.7 ___ 51 _52 __PROLONGED SNOWLOVER_3.6_0.8 _1.6 _3.3 _8.0 _----_3.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- __ 20.6 _ 22.4 ___ 52 _53 __ B87 __________________ ----_---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ 7.8_10.0_ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 17.8 _ 19.2 ___ 53 _54 __ GREAT PLUM __________ ---- _---- _8.4 _7.4 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 15.8 _ 14.8 ___ 54 _55 __ ROBBIE GARRETT ______---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 0.8 _4.3 _----_10.0 _---- _---- __ 15.1 __14.0 ___ 55 _56 __ FOZFOSTER __________ ---- _5.5 _4.5 _3.8 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 13.8 _ 13.4 ___ 56 _57 __ RAIN RAIN RAIN _______ ---- _2.4_10.0_---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 12.4 _ 12.4 ___ 57 _58 __ TERMINAL MORAINE ___ 9.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _1.4 _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 11.2 _ 11.0 ___ 58 _59 __ EMMETT GARLAND_____---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ 3.4 _ 6.8 _ ----_ ---- __ 10.2 _11.6 ___ 59 _60 __ SEASONALITY _________---- _---- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _10.0 _---- _---- _---- __ 10.0 _ 10.0 ___ 60 _61 __ EVENING STAR ________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 9.8 _---- __ 9.8 __ 9.0 ___ 63 _62 __ SUMMER of 95 _________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ 9.5 __ 9.5 __ 9.8 ___ 61 _63 __ V FOR VERY COLD _____ 9.0 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 9.0 __ 7.6 ___ 70 _64 __ NORTHWEST SNOW ____---- _---- _8.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 8.9 __ 9.5 ___ 62 _65 __ FEB1991BLIZZARD_____ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _8.6 ___ 8.6 __ 8.6 ___ 64 _66 __ LETTERBOXER ________ ---- _---- _3.6 _---- _ 4.3 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.9 __ 8.5 ___ 65 _67 __ MP-R ________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 7.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.8 __ 7.8 ___ 67 T68 __ CORAM ______________ ---- _---- _---- _7.7 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.7 __ 7.7 __T-68 T68 __ IAPENNELL ___________---- _5.9 _---- _---- _---- _1.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _----- ___ 7.7 __ 8.1 ___ 66 _70 __ BOOFERKING _________ 3.0 _4.5 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.5 __ 7.7 __T-68 _71 __ RICEY076 _____________ ---- _---- _---- _6.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- ___ 6.9 __ 6.9 ___ 72 _72__ MOORLANDER _________ 5.8 _---- _---- _0.4 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.2 __ 6.3 ___ 73 _73 __ LF1002 ________________----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 6.1 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.1 __ 7.0 ___ 71 _74 __ JAMES M ______________---- _---- _5.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.9 __ 5.9 __T-74 _75 __ POLAR MARITIME ______ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _5.7 _---- _---- ___ 5.7 __ 5.9 __T-74 _76 __ ROSS90 ______________ ---- _---- _5.4 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.4 __ 5.0 __T-77 _77 __ CASTELLANUS80 ______ ---- _2.8 _2.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.1 __ 5.1 ___ 76 _78 __ BACKTRACK___________---- _---- _---- _5.0 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.0 __ 5.0 __T-77 _79 __ THUNDERSNOW DAYS __---- _---- _4.7 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 4.7 __ 4.5 ___79 _80 __ ==METEO-MAN== ______ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _4.5 _---- ___ 4.5 __ 4.3 ___T-81 _81 __ HIGH GROUND B'HAM ___---- _---- _---- _4.3 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 4.3 __ 4.3 ___T-81 _82 __ NN2013 _______________---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _4.2 ___ 4.2 __ 4.4 ___80 _83 __ MARK NEAL ___________---- _---- _---- _ 2.9 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 2.9 __ 2.9 ___83 _84 __ MATT TARRANT ________---- _---- _---- _ 2.8 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 2.8 __ 2.8 ___84 T85 __ MORE SNOW __________2.6 _ --- _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 2.6 __ 2.6 __T-85 T85 __ DUNCAN McALISTER____---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _2.6 _---- _---- _---- ___ 2.6 __ 2.6 __T-85 _87 __ COLDEST WINTER _____ ---- _---- _---- _ 0.2 _---- _---- _ 2.2 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 2.4 __ 2.6 __T-85 _88 __ STEVE MURR _________ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 2.3 _---- _---- ___ 2.3 __ 2.3 ___ 88 _89 __ ALLWEATHER _________ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _1.8 _---- ___ 1.8 __ 1.8 ___ 89 T90 __ SKY FULL _____________---- _---- _1.2 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 1.2 __ 1.2 __T-90 T90 __ 38*5 C ________________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 _---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 1.2 __ 1.2 __T-90 _92 __ LETTUCING GUTTED ___ 0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.7 _0.0 _0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.2 _0.0 _0.0 _0.0 ___ 0.9 __ 0.4 __T-93 _93 __ SNOW DRAGON _______ ---- _---- _----- _----_---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ 0.8 ___ 0.8 __ 0.8 __ 92 _94 __ WEIRPIG _____________ 0.4 _---- _----- _----_---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 0.4 __ 0.4 __T-93 _95 __ I REMEMBER ATL 252 __ ---- _---- _0.2 _----_ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 0.2 __ 0.2 ___ 95 _96 __ DEEP SNOW PLEASE __ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _---- _ ---- _----_ 0.0 _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 96 ______________________________________________________________________________________ (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)

For all the blessing that high had during the summer months it is now that same high doing our head in for the end of autumn early winter!!and i totally agree until those heights get banished we are stuck with boring weather!!i dont care about that scandi high or how big it is right now cos its doing us no favours what so ever right now!!rather the whole pattern get shunted eastwards right now than be stuck in crappy southerlies!!

Until we get rid of the semi-permanent High over SE Europe which is bringing very mild weather over many parts of Europe,then I can’t see how we can get a cold spell developing.Its been above average in parts of Europe for weeks now.

Doesn't look like there is going to be much of that for the 1st half of November at the very least- i was hoping EC would be better..but its not, its zonal +NAO all the way out to mid month, and possibly beyond looking at day 10.. I will continue to hunt for the cold though in spite of the current outputs..

Reading last years diary and at this point still had cows and calves out but very muddy and wet. This year is totaly different with dry dusty conditions at turnips giving a very clean pick up. Another windy day today making the ground even dryer. Calves playing in the field with even a small bit of fresh grass to eat and cows lying in sun this afternoon as ground so dry. If it stays dry this winter then eastern areas of the UK are in for an interesting summer next year. Of course a change in wind direction from southerlies to northerlies would make this area wetter..Currently 8 c and dry.

Just to illustrate the point I was making, I'd like to quote this article that was published in 'The Glasgow Herald' all the way back on the 8th December 1879. "Whatever be the reason we have sets of mild Winters and sets of cold ones. At times so many mild seasons come together that people begin to speculate about "change of climate" and to lament over the "degeneracy of modern Winters" only to be reminded soon by a year such as last that we are still in the neighbourhood of the Arctic circle. It is more than likely therefore that before gliding into the next mild "cycle" we may have two or three Winters of more than average intensity." The fact this was written nearly 140 years ago is incredible and really reminds you that even back then people were talking about the weather in much the same way as some posters on this forum do now.

8.5c to the 4th Bang on the 61 to 90 average 0.5c below the 81 to 10 average ___________________________________ Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd Current high this month 8.5c to the 4th

Foggy start in Peterborough but pleasantly warm now the sun's out

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg179532.html#msg179532 We can see how much of the refreeze has been in the Laptev sea the last few days. Not much free space remaining now so to maintain the refreeze at the 100k+/day rate, other seas now need to pick up the slack.

Try changing your body temperature by 1C. See how well the "theory" of temperature changes on chemical activity works then. Our CO2 emissions cause global warming. The warming results in other climate changes. Both terms have been used for decades within the scientific community. It's neither difficult to understand nor a political play on words. You need to approach those terms from a heavily biased and politicised position to view them as political. I mean, like the US republicans, who issued a memo in 2003 instructing politicians to use climate change instead of global warming - it's less scary sounding and pleases the big oil donors. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz#Global_warming

No amount of sugar-coating can take away from the fact we are into an extended period of mild, wet and windy weather. Even the 10-15 period is not very inspiring either, possibly more settled later in southern parts as the Euro high ridges north. The extended EPS has a *strong* signal for low heights in the south of Greenland vicinity. Not a shock as this has been advertised for a few days now.

Ed..... In theory yes... However The effect of the temperature changes we are seeing (288.1K to 288.8K? from memory) are insignificant in terms of chemical reactivity. Remember that Chemistry and particularly reactivity works in terms of absolute temperature NOT an anomaly which may double or treble quite easily , as we see at the moment. I agree that the relationship is not linear however. (as evidence is provided by gaseous drinks). The difference is so small as to make the slight change in temperature insignificant in these still relatively strongly alkaline solutions. It will make the carbonate ion slightly more soluble as you suggest, but this will not affect the Bicarbonate ion balance with the carbonate that much. As always there is a balance in these things. To answer the above posts - these change should be described as less alkaline, not more acidic. As DEV suggests to claim otherwise is playing with words. The subject of Climate Science should start using actual scientific terms, not those used for best political impact. As we all admit, the political IPCC and the like are quite good at 'playing with words'. . Try - Global Warming, AGW Warming and Climate Change for similar playing with words. To accuse me of playing with words when I describe the scientific processes really does show how far away from true Science, 'Climate Science' has moved (in terms of its publication to the public). They have moved it into being a politician's delight. Politicians these days have more knowledge than the actual pure science tells us.. MIA

Really strange brownish tint to the light this morning! Weekend actually nowhere near as bad as I expected. Yesterday was a really pleasant Autumn day. Fairly mild and mostly sunny after some heavy overnight rain. Bonfire night looking mild. I'd prefer frosty but dry will do. Enjoy it if you're doing anything tonight

Well i thoroughly enjoyed the mini cold snap last week but my goodness the next 2 weeks minimum look plain awful for my neck of the woods, mild wet and windy- YUK!!!

18 day's blank, 184 for 2018, 60% Solar flux 67

Looking at the GEFS, EPS and NOAA medium term mean anomalies this evening gives no indication of any significant pattern changes. There are some differences, degree of amplification being one, but overall they are on the same page. A fairly slack vortex over the Pole with associated troughs eastern Europe, eastern NA and into the Atlantic. with ridging western NA and Europe. So a strong jet running up the eastern flank of the American trough and across the Atlantic resulting in a weakening westerly upper flow, possible backing south westerly depending on the precise trough/ridge orientation, over the UK. This portends unsettled weather with perhaps a NW/SE bias and temps around average which in due course the det. runs will sort out. And a certain symmetry with the lower strat

This is very true. I've seen contemporary documentaries about the Winter of 1962/63 for example and even then it was presented as a chaotic event that infrastructure was struggling to cope with. Truth is with the exception of more upland areas snow has always been a bit rare in the UK. It's not as if this country has ever really been famous for cold and snowy Winters and if anything it's always been better known for the opposite of relatively mild and often wet ones. Sure there have been times in the past when snow has been more frequent, often in the form of clusters that have waxed and waned (the last such was the period in the years from 2008-13 and at this stage for all we know last Winter might have marked the beginning of a new one). But as you say we have always been unprepared for it simply because unlike some parts of the world we can't guarantee much of it every single Winter that comes. Also even in the rarer Winters we do get a lot they are more often characterized by individual spells rather than many weeks or even months of sub zero temperatures and constant snow cover, which is what made that rather small bunch of more famous Winters in the 20th century even more incredible.

Dr David Viner said snow was going to be a rarer sight over the coming years, so when it did occur, we will get caught out and it will cause chaos as a result. That is what he was suggesting, Snow has always caused chaos, we have always been caught out. I know the history, I have read articles from decades ago of snow causing chaos, that once again we were ill-prepared etc.

November is one of my favourite months when it comes to chart etc watching. It’s the anticipation of a brand new winter ahead as opposed to realistically expecting to see anything notably cold in the offing. Soooo much more relaxing than by mid February in here, or at least, it ought to be. I’m just looking forward to another set of unique Synoptics and what transpires as we head towards and through the coming winter. As always, taking chart outputs as they roll out at face value only, as an indicator of the longer term prospects, is of no use at all. Ensembles, at the very very least, need to be viewed in conjunction with the myriad of daily charts that are being churned out, to help glean a feel of where we might be heading. Regards the snow prospects early winter, unless you live high up on a northern hill, snow before December is a rarity, so there should be no expectations to the contrary. Reference European mountain snow (away from the higher resorts). I don’t see the point in being too concerned early November as, unless we are talking monumental dumpings, it isn’t likely to contribute to the forthcoming winter snow levels. It is only early December onwards when the real nail biting commences for people like me who have gambled on a Christmas break in the Western Alps at just 1,100M Bring on Winter 18/19. I remain hopeful that it will get off to a decent start, as we head through next month

Every single one of those papers agrees that ocean acidification is happening. Every. Single. One. Each of the papers linked above, by tablet, are written by scientists and all call it ocean acidification.

This is what it was like here on this day in 2012, don't remember it leading to much of a winter. 1946 on the other hand, and the exceptionally warm November......who knew what was just around the corner. Far too early to get despondent at the lack of cold, plenty of time yet for things to improve.