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Not entirely sure what models some are looking at but this mornings output is a step in the right direction. Scandi heights are more prominent and more amplified than they were on yesterdays runs In the earlier timeframes The above charts are a beauty, WAA into the Arctic, trop vortex more or less split. If anyone thinks this 240 chart from the ECM is likely, think again We all know how poorly the models handle heights to our East, they always bulldoze high pressure out of the way like it was nothing and then closer to the time they realise the heights are more robust and everything backs West. That’s exactly whats happened in the earlier timeframes of this mornings runs and I suspect will continue to happen in the coming days. Watch for the low pressure to undercut more than the models are showing and thus reinforcing the heights to our North. Zonal winds are forecasted to plummet and models are hinting at quite a warming (though not quite SSW) in the medium timeframe along with a displaced vortex towards the Siberian side of the Arctic. Solid outputs this morning and a continuation with what I am expecting. Cold will reach the UK shores by the last third of the month, until then we’re in the middle of the Atlantic and blocking heights to the East, I expect the heights to win out. Short term cold = Poor models Long term cold = Good/Very good

Indeed so Daniel. That is how the meto extended up date started to hint at the Nov Dec2010 spell. First it's possible below average temps and precipitation turning wintry.. ...... Then a few days later it's winds becoming northeast with showers turning Increasingly to snow and the before you know it it's temps well below average and snow becoming widespread. Well that's what we hope anyway.

Most wintry update yet on the met office 16-30 day extended forecast.

NWS....individual runs are pointless in FI.....you know that!? BFTP

See my post above, i suspect the MO are seeing the same thing that I am, expect blocking to begin showing in the models in the next few days with any milder, Atlantic driven weather being pushed back and back

January isn't bad either!

That's not a shabby anomaly for December

I agree, feb...But winter disnae even start for another four weeks! Patience is a virtue? Good things come to he who waits?

Outlook - unsettled but the pattern is encouraging a W/E divide for the UK whilst at the same time promoting some quite unusual WAA in to Europe. Meanwhile the 500mb and surface charts for midnight Currently much of the northern half UK is in the warm sector with the moderate rain from the cold front over western Scotland. This will track slowly south east during the day and it will also be quite gusty for a while in central/southern Scotland. Further south again dry and relatively warm. During this evening and overnight the front and rain continue to make slow progress before coming to a halt and easing as the filling low tracks NW of Scotland. Still quite a strong south westerly wind blowing across the UK, particularly in the north where it will be accompanied by showers, so a much milder night in the south east with no frosts But further to the south west a wave has formed on the front, which now appears to have become double structured, and this along with rain will track north during Sunday effecting the south west and Wales during Sunday afternoon. Again the south east escaping whilst showers continue in the north west with temps above average Over Sunday night and through Monday the wave continues north to be west of Scotland by midday and all of this skews the front back again so cloud and patchy rain will persist in western and northern regions whilst the south east will continue to be dry and quite warm By Tuesday the wave is way up east of Iceland and the front has staggered east across the country thus spreading the rain around a bit more but further to west the situation gas developed that has been touched upon in earlier posts. That is the upper trough in the Atlantic has tracked east and become negatively tilted to the west of the UK resulting in new deep surface low NW of Ireland and the associated fronts bringing rain into the south west.and the winds freshening once more. Temps above average, particularly in the south east By Wednesday the upper trough is extended across the UK which portends unsettled showery conditions, perhaps some longer spells of rain, with some sunny intervals and temps still generally above average. And the NH profile at T120 And I would like to add a further comment which pertains to comments made elsewhere yesterday. Whatever my weather preferences might, or not be, they are totally irrelevant to any discussion I post vis the model outputs and do not influence the latter one jot. Nor should they

Try reading what I wrote then guess what.. Some of the 'higher' resorts. Once the southerly wind blows across most of Europe - so the fohn effect will melt any early snow apart from all but the highest resorts.

Remember you saying the same thing last winter before the heavy snow in Dec Met office have a lot more tools then we see online remember

It should feel seasonal at least. We may even get some fog. I do miss the Autumnal fogs of my childhood.

Low solar does not mean what the 'can' says. It is actually low sunspot count. In the warming (Infra-red) zone of the suns transmissions there is hardly any difference in energy. Models therefore show hardly any affect.. It is only in the last 10years that it has been realised that 'energy' in the UV band reaching the earth starts to vary. This variation has been measured at up to 25%, but an average figure of 15% is believed to be more realistic. It is thought that this affects the chemistry in the outer layers of the stratosphere, and cooling is now being reported at the very highest levels of the stratosphere. Hence Jonboys postings on the Thermosphere above. The above affect is not the only one, including more high energy particles hitting the earth from space. Much climate research is being conducted into studying these affects. The climate models currently are unable to predict/ignore/program these affects. Joanna Haigh is a leading light in examining these responses. Basically it is still too early to predict what the climate response is to these indirect changes which may affect the earths albedo. History tells us that the climate tends to become colder (the Maunder Minimum, and the Little Ice Age) and other low sunspot periods tend to make the climate more unstable. It is still to soon to be certain as to what will happen, but it is the only possible explanation, at the moment, for temporary variations between the major icings of the earth. It is an exciting time for research in this area. MIA

Nah, I foresee a big switch happening. E to NE winds for U.K. late Nov a la last 3rd, I think a v cold trough drops into Europe....with Northern blocking ushering in a cold start to Winter. BFTP

let’s hope the met have it correct,though they get it wrong as such a timescale as well.Cant live through another 2015 nov dec,the most pathetic mild spell which wasted a whole 6 weeks,winter was rubbish after as well

Yes - no dressing it up any other way - the output is dyer this morning.

You are correct.. A further possible impact is the one that could impact the Poles. Basically the Thermostatic cooling in evidence in the stratosphere is thought (by some) to reduce the effective height at which heat is sent back into space. Over the poles(where this height is substantially reduced anyway), it is thought that it will substantially aid the loss of heat. It is just possible that this effect is actually occurring right now, whereby a lot of heat has been moved into the Arctic Seas.... the heat stops the seas freezing.... more heat is lost from water than ice (the albedo effect)..... this heat is more easily lost to space. This appears to describe exactly what is happening this year in the Arctic, where the refreeze was delayed by a burst of warm air from the Pacific - just as the refreeze was due to begin (mid Sept). This stagnated/delayed over the pole leaving open water. This heat then took 2 to 3 weeks to be radiated into space (with quiet weather at the time) and possibly aided by the lower thermosphere, enabled the SST's to drop to the point at which the freeze could begin in earnest. All this time the 2M temperature anomaly has been +2.0C to +5.0C above normal. Despite that Hey presto.. one gets a very fast and very late flash refreeze over the central basin. As has occurred! Will this have any effect in the more central area (us?) of the Northern Hemisphere? History (Maunder Minimum and the little ice age) suggests it may. It gives the first possible scientific explanation for the effect of Little Ice Ages. I am not suggesting that a LIA will occur at this point in time - despite my name!!!. It is all theory at present, but does seem to match what is being observed. Is the magnitude of the effect increased by the low solar count? Time will tell. Possibly a pertinent question for many is what happens when all the ice in the basin is refrozen?..... I attach the link from Vshop for what this means, and its effect on the ice. and the above is a table for where we currently sit in terms of the last 10 years. Currently we are still gaining (compared to normal refreeze rates) for this time of year. Each day the ice is still gaining an average of about 70K Km2 compared to the average of the last 10 years. As the regions in the Central Arctic completely refreeze one can expect that the rate of increase will reduce to zero. I estimate that there are about 1,500K Km2 left to refreeze. This could take a further 1 to 2 weeks. Will we move from last position (middle of October) to one near the top in a single month?. Unlikely - but it would be a big plus for the theory!! This might possibly better sit in the Arctic Ice refreeze forum...but I thought it relevant to this discussion. Midlands Ice Age

This is my guess too, lower energy available allowed the atmosphere to play games with the jet stream and it can't be cold everywhere unless the incoming heat energy really drops off as it did apparently from 1670 to 1709 (what's interesting about the 1660s is that the Maunder hadn't really completely set in and you can see it looks a bit like the early 20th century rather than the cold cold patterns later). The mid-19th century has more signs of a cold zonal bias indicating that perhaps as energy returned from solar activity increasing, it took decades to restore the balance of more average variations, possibly around the 1870s but then another solar downturn postponed any real warming until after 1920.

Looking at the queries above - Every point deduction in the overall comp is pretty much the final points deduction after adjustments, this is by accident rather than by design. However this remains a pretty severe penalty. In terms of advantages of early entry, this is generally pretty small especially in month with less entries, although it could accumulate if you enter very early each month. All players are ranked in the Overall competition, but if you miss 3 entries or more you cannot finish higher than anyone who misses only 2 entries. As an example, Optimus Prime is the highest ranked player with 3 missed entries is 54th. Thereafter the first tie breaker is the number of entire, so someone with 7 entries will be raked higher than someone with 6 entries, regardless of points scored.

Regarding @BruenSryan‘s post, this would be the sort of 500mb anomaly you would need to see for some proper cold and wintry conditions for the UK! ‘Tis important to see a trough of Low Pressure pushing well East into Mainland Europe to our South to help squeeze some polar bear-like weather Westwards towards the U.K. Edit: And let’s keep this place friendly please. Thanks!

I was just about to mention this. October was exceptionally sunny here with 144 hours in total, making it the sunniest on record. It extends a run of sunnier than average months this year: May: 280hrs (139%) - sunniest on record June: 241hrs (131%) - 3rd sunniest July: 267hrs (134%) - 2nd sunniest August: 190hrs (103%) September: 158hrs (109%) October: 144hrs (133%) - sunniest on record November: 14hrs (204%) to the 3rd. It's been quite a year. We're on 1649hrs already when the 1981-2010 average for the whole year is 1547hrs. It's going to finish well above average.

Indeed I had a good look at the previous few runs before I posted. A trend emerging? Hopefully yes along with the positive meto update.

Blimey sleety you got a better memory than me !! Im struggling to remember last week.. The update upgrade is more related to the end of November but its a good un , wintry precipitation - yum yum..

A brilliant update for cold potential. With higher anomalies in the Med region though there is a chance it could end up a rather wet scenario with lows bumping up and stalling against a block rather than undercutting, but this is a great scenario to be operating in...

You are right. It's certainly not your imagination. The 00z runs tend to be the flattest and least amplified, especially in the long term. This has been the case for many years now.

Brave call that BFTP .Of course, I hope your prediction is going to take place. However, I cannot not see it as things stand but if it does, great credit to you sir. I do not like this spin and rinse cycle to develop out west of the British Isles and far too warm over most of Euroland. Its in a rut and I hate it at this time of the year. C

In the CET, you are only in the main table if you miss zero, one or two forecasts. Then the people who have entered fewer are ranked below that in a second section, against those with similar numbers of entries. In the EWP, your total score is your total score and that's your ranking. I don't deal in average scores partly because the months cannot be compared as easily, in the CET a part of the scoring is absolute error, in EWP it's solely based on rankings within each month. I am probably going to modify the EWP scoring to give some credit for being first in with a forecast amount, thinking maybe I will drop the scores by just 0.1 but preserve the larger drop that would take place for the next level down. Also I am looking at some way of normalizing the scores so that actual error has something to do with the magnitudes. This was an experiment to see what participation might be like, and it has been encouraging in that two-thirds (roughly) of the regulars have chosen to support the EWP contest too. Thanks everybody, hope you're enjoying the expanded forecasting nightmare I mean experience. ========================================== EWP results are posted now (see previous post for summary) https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=10

Is commenting on the rest of us commenting on the models at Day 10 really less stressful than commenting on them directly? meanwhile, 18z dribbling out, here at T102, big polar ridge from Scandi

Tables of entries for November 2018 CET and EWP forecast contests (a) CET forecasts (numbers in brackets show order of entry) 13.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (24) 10.1 __ __ __ warmest (1994) 8.9 __ BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE (19) 8.5 to 8.8 __ no entries 8.4 __ VIZZY2004 (49), QUICKSILVER1989 (L1-1) 8.3 __ 8.2 __ ROGER J SMITH (33), SYED2878 (37) 8.1 __ 8.0 __ KENTISH MAN (42), DAVEHSUG (60) 7.9 __ REEF (57), METALTRON (58) 7.8 __ LET IT SNOW! (27) 7.7 __ STEWFOX (25), MAN WITH BEARD (61), DUNCAN McALISTER (L1-4) 7.6 __ STARGAZER (20), DKEANE3 (26), FROZE WERE THE DAYS (45), MULZY (51) 7.5 __ DR(S)NO (22), THE PIT (56) 7.4 __ STEVE B (2), NORRANCE (36), BORN FROM THE VOID (44), J10 (62) 7.3 __ STATIONARY FRONT (64), DAVID SNOW (65), mean 1988-2017 7.2 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (23), NORTHWESTSNOW (41), DON (55) 7.1 __ SUMMER BLIZZARD (6), DAMIANSLAW (39), MARK BAYLEY (50), mean 1981-2010 7.0 __ SNOWRAY (31), SINGULARITY (54) 6.9 __ SUMMER SUN (30), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (43), SEASIDE60 (63) ... consensus 6.8 __ PEGG24 (4), TJM14 (8), DAMI (14), SLEETY (35), DANIEL* (59) 6.7 __ EDSTONE (10), SUNDOG (38), JONBOY (46) 6.6 __ GODBER1 (32), BLAST FROM THE PAST (53) 6.5 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE (11), DANCERWITHWINGS (16) 6.4 __ WEATHER26 (12) 6.3 __ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS (9), WALSALL WOOD SNOW (21) 6.2 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (7) 6.1 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER (13), NN2013 (29), MARK NEAL. (34), PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (47) 6.0 __ JEFF C (17), WEATHER-HISTORY (52) 5.9 __ SNOWYOWL9 (15), FEB1991BLIZZARD (40) 5.8 __ BOBD29 (5) 5.7 __ POLAR GAEL (3) 5.6 __ 5.5 __ RELATIVISTIC (L1-3) 5.4 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT (1), LEO97T (18) 5.3 __ OPTIMUS PRIME (28) 5.2 __ COLDEST WINTER (48), ROBBIE GARRETT (L1-2) 2.3 __ __ __ coldest (1782) _________________________________ 65 on time entries and 4 marked one day late (L1 - n) ... ... consensus (median) of 69 entries is 35th ranked, 6.9 C. -=================================================- (b) EWP forecasts (table includes Hadley extremes, NCIC averages) 202.5 __ __ __ wettest (1852) 200.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED 179.0 __ STEVE B 145.0 __ ROBBIE GARRETT (1d late) 140.0 __ VIRTUALSPHERE 132.0 __ STEWFOX 130.0 __ NN2013 125.0 __ ROGER J SMITH 124.0 __ STARGAZER 122.0 __ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS 120.0 __ SYED2878 112.0 __ WEATHER26 110.0 __ GODBER.1 106.0 __ MARK NEAL. 105.0 __ SINGULARITY 102.0 __ JEFF C, REEF 100.0 __ FEB1991BLIZZARD 99.0 __ DKEANE3 97.0 __ EDSTONE ... mean 1988-2017 96.5 __ mean 1981-2010 95.0 __ DR(S)NO 94.0 __ J10 90.0 __ LET IT SNOW! 89.0 __ STATIONARY FRONT 87.0 __ POLAR GAEL 84.0 __ consensus 81.0 __ NORRANCE 80.0 __ SLEETY, DON 79.0 __ DAVEHSUG, SEASIDE60 78.0 __ BORN FROM THE VOID 77.0 __ DAVID SNOW 76.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE 75.0 __ WEATHER-HISTORY, DANIEL* 74.0 __ PROLONGED SNOW LOVER 70.0 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE 68.0 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT 65.0 __ THE PIT 64.0 __ VIZZY2004 60.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST, RELATIVISTIC (1d late) 58.0 __ DAMI, JONBOY 55.4 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER 50.0 __ PEGG24, DIAGONAL RED LINE 46.0 __ BOBD29 38.0 __ TJM14 17.9 __ __ __ driest (1945) _________________________________ 46 on time entries, two were one day late, consensus (median of 48 entries) is 84.0 mm.

Too right Fred. That's why I've perfected the 'No Runs Method'. It's easier on the old ticker than repeatedly watching Day 10's blizzards disappear before they get to Day 5!

You can't glean anything from a single run of CFS, you need to look at it probabilistically. So for balance, here's the previous 7 runs for December Yes it's more mixed as you would expect, but I'm detecting a -AO flavour to this which CFS hadn't been showing thus far this winter? Bodes well, I'd say.

The most wintry update yet.

ECM clusters definitely stepped away from colder scenarios this morning - still some ensembles going for a dominant Scandi High at D10 but outweighed by clusters with heights further south now - and by D15 there's far less HLB going on However, I'm sensing there may be opportunities for cold coming up (mid month and after) through a cold stationary high over the UK. Fog + frost rather than snow.

Probably that, after so many years' vainly hunting for cold, I've come to the not very exciting conclusion that I may just as well wait for it...I'll enjoy it when it comes, though!

Stress with we are moving, we aren’t moving to back to moving again, not been online for a couple of weeks, what did I miss? Other than a hard/not hard frost? hopefully not too windy tonight, I’ve bought 5 mother n father of all Rockets I’ve bought them for me, not the other side of Upton ?

This is beginning to remind me of where we were two years ago, when hopes of a cold 2nd half of November were being dashed.

I have been saying this for many times now, the quasi permanent high pressure on axis along Black Sea,Romania,Ukraine Belarus and Eastern Baltics is practically a knockout blow for any meaningful cold spell for the continent. And if we look at all the most recent long term outputs(EPS,GEFS,GEPS,ECM46d) it still keeps this high in place there. It has been there permanently since May and at times also spreads as far as eastern Scandi. This pesky euro high is nearly as bad as our friend Bartlett high.As an example we have this chart from ecmwf 46 dayer and it still has that high there,notice -EPO, eastern USA cold, this pattern favorite for next while I think.

I have been dying to say this for a while but has the hunt for cold gone cold? Would be interesting to see what the clusters indicate in the EPS - I guess the *trend* is towards lower heights across Greenland than previously advertised. Let's see...

Agreed and there was also mention previously on this thread or perhaps the "what effect will Solar Minimum have on weather and climate take 2?"thread regarding increased volcanic / seismic activity during solar minimum which can also effect things. I'm not sure of that mechanism unless it's just straightforward physics i.e. The earth cools and the tectonic plates contract ever so slightly-unlikely to be that simple! Or it could, as someone observed be a result of changes in geomagnetic due to radiation level changes coming from the sun...

here are GEFS at around 50hr intervals starting at around the 100hr mark - 300hr mark which is obviously well into FI 102h all pretty much in agreement with the low just to our west 150h plenty trying to get some kind of block in place 204h seems to be lots of possibilities at this time frame but still the majority with the high to our east 252h almost similar to the 102h chart with a low to our west and plenty showing the high to our east 300h less agreement with some unsettled but some with the high to our east GEM ensembles pretty similar 102h 150h 204h 300h Could be a repeating pattern with the lows just to our west and the scandi high trying to move westwards with possible easterly's for us at times.

An odd thing about the Dalton minimum was that while cold was certainly the dominant feature (winters were every bit as cold as the Maunder minimum), occasionally it got quite warm. These months between 1795 and 1835 show that record warmth was quite possible with the low solar background (I've noticed that the Sun got active around 1837-38 before the climate showed much response perhaps by the next peak in 1848). WARMEST MONTHS in the DALTON MINIMUM PERIOD 1795 to 1835 (approx) JAN _ 7.3 1796 _ tied 2nd warmest, 7.1 1834 _ 4th warmest FEB _ 6.5 1815 _ tied 19th warmest (1794 was 7.2, 5th warmest) MAR _ 7.8 1822 _ 17th warmest APR _ 10.4 1798 _ 4th warmest MAY _ 15.1 1833 _ warmest JUN _ 17.3 1826 _ 3rd warmest __ 17.1 1822 _ 4th warmest JUL _ 18.4 1808 _ tied 9th warmest __ very warm first half July 1826 AUG _ 17.9 1826 _ tied 12th warmest __ summer 1826 was 2nd warmest SEP _ 15.1 1825 _ tied 19th warmest OCT _ 12.7 1831 _ 7th warmest NOV _ 9.5 1818 _ tied 3rd warmest, 9.1 1817 _ 8th warmest DEC _ 7.4 1828 _ tied 8th warmest ______________________________________ So the Dalton era managed to produce top ten warmest months (to this date) in eight of twelve months. It managed a top twenty in every month. There's more to these solar minimum periods than just cold. The comparison to the Maunder is interesting. There are several months that don't have a top 30 listing before 1710, the spring and autumn are most warmth-challenged. The only top ten month in the years 1659 to 1709 was June 1676 (18.0, 2nd warmest). Jan 1686 was tied 11th and then Dec 1710 managed a tie for 5th.

They must have been banging on about global warming in the 1770s, when you look at how warm it was at times, there were monthly records that were set in March 1777 and April 1775, the first of them fell to 2017 but the April record survives to this day. The warmth at end of October 1772 and into early November must have been enjoyable in those days before central heating. Also Feb 1779 still the warmest February on record. The 18th century has some interesting variations in general, proving I think that natural variability should not be played down as we search for answers to what's happening now and what will happen down the road. After the cold cold Maunder to about 1709 (that winter was even colder in France relatively), it suddenly warmed up quite a lot from 1710 to 1739, then came the extreme cold year of 1740 (both winter and October set records), still rather cold through large parts of the 1740s to 1760s although with the odd warmer event, with the 1770s starting a more highly variable sort of pattern, not just the warmth I mentioned above, but severe cold in January 1776 and 1780. The rest of the 1780s kept up this high variability although with cold winning out more often. There are many surviving cold records from 1784-86. The years 1790 to 1794 were rather bland and mild, then 1795 started a new trend (which we now associate with the Dalton sunspot minimum) that saw cold frequently dominant from about 1795 to 1845. I won't write a similar treatise on the 19th century but it had its share of big ups and downs also. And not a greenhouse gas emission in sight for most of those decades. So we can get to sudden warmings without human intervention. The question is whether we can get back to sudden coolings. Then 2010 provided a partial answer. I continue to think there is certainly some merit to the AGW theory but caution is needed in assigning it a dominant role, given what's happened out of the blue in the past.

October EWP scoring __ NCIC version (76.7 mm) Rank __ FORECASTER _______ F'cast __ Error ___ Points _ 01 ___ vizzy2004 ___________ 76.0 ___ --0.7 ____ 10.0 _ 02 ___ Summer of 95 ________ 78.0 ___ +1.3 _____ 9.8 _ 03 ___ Midlands Ice Age ______75.0 ___ --1.7 _____ 9.6 _ 04 ___ DAVID SNOW ________ 75.0 ___ --1.7 _____ 9.4 (9.6 -- 0.2 for one day late) _T05 __ Leo97T, Blast from the Past __80.0 ___ +3.3 _____ 9.1 each _T07 ___ Pegg24, Feb1991blizzard, _____________ The Pit, Mulzy _______ 70.0 ___ --6.7 _____ 8.6 each _ 11 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ______69.6 ___ --7.1 _____ 7.7 _ 12 ___ Singularity ____________84.0 ___ +7.3 _____ 7.5 _(T12) _ consensus ___________84.0 ___ +7.3 _____ 7.5 _T13 ___ Dr(S)No, syed2878, Reef __ 85.0 ___ +8.3 _____ 7.2 each _T16 ___ TJM14, Don __________68.0 ___ --8.7 _____ 6.5 each _ 18 ___ virtualsphere __________86.0 ___ +9.3 _____ 6.1 _ 19 ___ Stationary Front _______ 87.0 ___+10.3 _____5.8 _ 20 ___ weather26 ___________ 88.0 ___+11.3 _____ 5.6 _ 21 ___ weather-history _______ 65.0 ___--11.7 _____ 5.4 _ 22 ___ Jonboy ______________65.0 ___--11.7 _____ 5.2 (5.4 -- 0.2 for one day late) _T23 ___ seaside60 ___________89.0 ___+12.3 _____ 4.7 (4.9 -- 0.2 for one day late) _T23 ___ Steve B _____________64.0 ___--12.7 _____ 4.7 _ 25 ___ nn2013 ______________90.0 ___+13.3 _____ 4.4 _ 26 ___ Radiating Dendrite _____63.0 ___--13.7 _____ 4.2 _ 27 ___ dKeane3 _____________92.0 ___+15.3 _____ 4.0 _ 28 ___ davehsug ____________ 95.0 ___+18.3 _____ 3.7 _(29)___ average for 1988-2017 __96.6 ___+19.9 _____ 3.6 _T29___ Dami, Godber.1, _________ Roger J Smith, Doctor32 __ 55.0 ___--21.7 _____ 3.5 each _T33 ___ EdStone, Relativistic, ____________ Norrance, J10 ________ 99.0 ___+22.3 _____ 2.6 each _T37 ___ stewfox ____________ 100.0 ___+23.3 _____ 1.4 (1.6 -- 0.2 for one day late) _T37 ___ Stargazer ___________ 53.0 ___--23.7 _____ 1.4 _(39)___ average for 1981-2010 _100.8 ___+24.1 _____ 1.3 _ 39 ___ Jeff C _______________105.0 ___+28.3 _____ 1.2 _ 40 ___ Bobd29 _____________ 110.0 ___+33.3 _____ 1.0 _ 41 ___ SnowDragon _________ 111.0 ___+34.3 _____ 0.8 _ 42 ___ Born From the Void ____ 115.0 ___+38.3 _____ 0.6 _ 43 ___ CheesePuffScott ______ 117.0 ___+40.3 _____ 0.4 _ 44 ___ Polar Gael ___________ 121.3 ___+44.6 _____ 0.2 _ 45 ___ Lettucing Gutted _______200.0 __+123.7 _____ 0.0 ================================================================ Updated EWP annual scoring (NCIC version) for Dec 2017 to Oct 2018 Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct __TOTAL_ previous rank _01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2 _7.7 _5.0 _7.5 __ 79.4 ____ 01 _02 __ J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 _5.4 _8.8 _2.6 __ 69.7 ____ 02 T03 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3_10.0 _3.0 _6.5 __ 69.3 ____ 05 T03 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.7 _7.0 _9.6 __ 69.3 ____ 06 _05 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 _4.4 _7.8 _5.2 __ 68.5 ____ 04 (06) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 _5.5 _6.0 _7.5 __ 68.3 ____ (06) _06 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 _2.1 _8.0 _0.2 __ 67.2 ____ 03 _07 __ DR (S) NO ______________ 9.8 _8.8 _1.2 _6.2 _6.4 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.1 _9.5 _7.2 __ 66.7 ____ 07 _08 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ___ 2.0 _2.4 _8.7 _4.5 _2.0 _7.8 _9.4 _9.2 _2.8 _9.8 _4.2 __ 62.8 ____ 10 _09 __ NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 _6.4 _6.0 _2.6 __ 61.5 ____T-08 _10 __ DAVID SNOW____________ 2.2 _3.3 _8.6 _5.7 _5.4 _2.2 _7.0 _4.5 _9.8 _1.8 _9.4 __ 59.9 ____ 16 _11 __ MULZY _________________7.0 _8.6 _6.7 _0.9 _1.8 _8.2 _4.3 _8.0 _2.5 _3.0 _8.6 __ 59.6 ____ 15 _12 __ REEF __________________ 9.0 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0_10.0_5.4 _3.8 _7.2 __ 59.5 ____ 13 _(13) _ average 1981-2010 _______7.5 _6.4 _5.3 _5.0 _2.6 _6.4 _3.2 _1.4_10.0_9.9 _1.3 __ 59.0 ____ (11) _13 _CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 _8.2 _---- _---- __ 58.9 ____T-08 _14 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________ 5.8 _4.5 _4.8 _8.8 _8.4 _5.1 _5.9 _4.5 _1.8 _4.3 _4.7 __ 58.6 ____ 12 _(15)_ average 1988-2017 (D 87-16) _7.9_7.5 _3.9 _3.4 _2.4 _6.4 _2.4 _1.1 _9.0 _9.7 _3.6 __ 57.3 ____ (13) _15 __ BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 _3.3 _2.0 _0.6 __ 57.0 ____ 11 _16 __ SYED2878 ______________ 4.8_10.0_3.8 _5.0 _2.2 _6.1 _3.2 _1.8 _9.1 _3.0 _7.2 __ 56.2 ____ 19 _17 __ PEGG24 _______________ 8.0 _5.9 _0.7 _6.2 _7.5 _1.2 _5.3 _10.0 _0.2 _---- _8.6 __ 53.6 ____ 30 _18 __ STEVE B _______________ 7.4 _8.2 _3.5 _8.8 _7.5 _0.2 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _0.3 _4.7 __ 52.5 ____T-21 _19 __ BOBD29 ________________3.2 _7.0 _6.5 _5.9 _5.6 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 _1.1 _7.3 _1.0 __ 52.1 ____ 14 _20 __ GODBER.1 _____________ 2.4 _7.4 _5.5 _3.5 _7.5_10.0 _0.6 _7.4 _2.8 _1.3 _3.5 __ 51.9 ____ 20 _21 __ STARGAZER ____________ 1.4 _9.4 _2.4 _7.1 _2.7 _4.5 _6.5 _6.7 _----_9.3 _ 1.4 __ 51.4 ____ 17 T22 __ STATIONARY FRONT _____ 1.2 _4.9 _6.4 _2.6 _0.7 _5.3 _7.4 _3.6 _9.4 _4.0 _5.8 __ 51.3 ____ 29 T22 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ___ ---- _ ---- _3.5 _8.8 _10.0_2.6_7.6 _4.7 _1.6 _4.8 _7.7 __ 51.3 ____ 33 _24 __ THE_PIT ________________6.0 _1.2 _7.4 _1.4 _3.8 _8.8 _4.3 _2.6 _0.7 _6.0 _8.6 __ 50.8 ____ 34 _25 __ RELATIVISTIC ___________ 8.4 _2.2 _7.4 _1.2 _4.7 _0.4 _0.6 _6.3 _8.7 _7.6 _2.6 __ 50.1 ____ 23 _26 __ DAMI ___________________5.4 _3.9 _0.9 _5.7 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0 _6.8 _5.2 _6.0 _3.5 __ 49.6 ____T-25 _27 __ LET IT SNOW ! __________ ---- _----_ 8.8 _6.5 _4.7 _3.5 _9.6 _0.8 _7.3 _8.3 _ ---- __ 49.5 ____ 18 _28 __ DAVEHSUG _____________ 1.0 _1.2 _9.1 _4.8 _7.5 _7.8 _1.0 _2.0 _7.5 _3.8 _3.7 __ 49.4 ____T-27 _29 __ WEATHER-HISTORY ______0.6 _3.3 _5.9 _2.6 _9.2 _6.8 _0.8 _7.6 _4.1 _3.0 _5.4 __ 49.3 ____ 32 _30 __ ROGER J SMITH _________ 0.2 _1.8 _8.1 _9.8 _2.7 _5.5 _5.5 _3.0 _3.8 _5.3 _3.5 __ 49.2 ____T-27 _31 __ JEFF C _________________7.8 _4.1 _1.1 _3.3 _3.1 _4.3 _5.3 _4.5 _4.3 _10.0_1.2 __ 49.0 ____T-21 _32 __ DKEANE3 ______________ 7.2 _7.6 _5.2 _9.1 _3.6 _2.8 _2.0 _6.5 _ ---- _---- _4.0 __ 48.0 ____ 31 _33 __ STEWFOX ______________7.0 _9.4 _4.0 _8.9 _8.2 _0.6 _8.2 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _1.4 __ 47.7 ____ 24 _34 __ MAPANTZ ______________ 5.2 _6.8 _1.9 _4.3 _6.4 _8.8 _4.1 _8.6 _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 46.1 ____T-25 _35 __ VIZZY2004 ______________9.0 _9.0 _8.9 _2.6 _0.5 _ --- _---- _---- _---- _3.5 _10.0 __ 43.5 ____ 43 _36 __ VIRTUALSPHERE ________4.4 _1.0 _8.1 _1.6 _9.8 _3.0 _1.8 _0.6 _ ---- _6.8 _6.1 __ 43.2 ____ 36 _37 __ DOCTOR32 _____________ 1.6 _3.9 _6.4 _5.0 _3.1 _1.4 _5.3 _9.4 _1.2 _ ---- _3.5 __ 40.8 ____ 35 _38 __ WEATHER 26 ___________ ---- _ 4.7 _4.3 _9.5 _0.9 _4.7 _8.2 _0.4 _0.9 _1.0 _ 5.6 __ 40.2 ____T-39 _39 __ DANIEL* ________________3.8 _5.9 _4.7 _4.3 _3.4 _6.3 _---- _4.9 _3.1 _ ---- _ ---- __ 36.4 ____ 37 _40 __ SIMSHADY ______________8.2 _8.4 _0.4 _7.2 _9.8 _1.8 _--- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 35.8 ____ 38 _T41__DIAGONAL RED LINE ____ ---- _ ---- _ 2.1 _6.9 _6.4 _6.8 _9.8 _2.6 _---- _---- _ ---- __ 34.6 ____T-39 _T41__ALEXISJ9 _______________2.8 _5.5 _1.9 _---- _0.2 _1.0 _3.0 _4.3 _9.6 _6.3 _ ---- __ 34.6 ____T-39 _43 __ TIMMYTOUR ____________ 9.4 _0.2 _7.4 _1.7 _ ---- _8.8 _6.3 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 33.8 ____ 42 _44 __ CHRIS. R _______________ 6.2 _0.6 _9.3 _7.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _7.0 _ ---- _---- _---- __ 31.0 ____ 44 _45 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT _____ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _5.7 _ 9.0 _5.7 _0.4 _8.5 _0.4 __ 29.7 ____ 45 _46 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST __ 0.8 _0.0 _3.5 _2.6 _ ---- _5.9 _---- _---- _ 6.9 _0.5 _9.1 __ 29.3 ____ 51 _47 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ____---- _---- _---- _0.7 _8.6 _---- _ ---- _5.3 _6.6 _6.8 _ ---- __ 28.0 ____ 46 _48 __ TJM14 __________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _5.3 _5.9 _1.8 _8.4 _---- _6.5 __ 27.9 ____ 50 _49 __ ED STONE ______________ 4.4 _1.6 _5.3 _1.2 _1.1 _ --- _ 1.2 _1.0 _6.2 _0.8 _2.6 __ 25.4 ____ 48 _50 _THUNDERYWINTRYSHOWERS 8.6_--- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _7.2 _8.8 _---- _---- _ ---- __ 24.6 ____ 47 _51 __ LEO97T _________________ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _8.2 _5.4 _---- _9.1 __ 22.7 ____ 55 _52 _ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER _ 3.6_0.8 _1.6 _3.3 _9.8 _ ----_3.3 _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- __ 22.4 ____ 49 _53 __ B87 ____________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _9.2_10.0 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 19.2 ____ 52 _54 __ GREAT PLUM ____________ ---- _---- _7.4 _7.4 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 14.8 ____ 53 _55 __ ROBBIE GARRETT ________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _0.8 _ 4.3 _---- _8.9 _---- _---- __ 14.0 ____ 54 _56 __ FOZFOSTER _____________ ---- _5.3 _4.3 _3.8 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 13.4 ____ 56 _57 __ RAIN RAIN RAIN __________ ---- _ 2.4_10.0_---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 12.4 ____ 57 _58 __ EMMETT GARLAND________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ 3.6 _8.0 _---- _---- __11.6 ____ 58 _59 __ TERMINAL MORAINE ______ 9.6 _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 1.4 _---- _---- _ ---- __ 11.0 ____ 59 _60 __ SEASONALITY ____________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _10.0 _---- _---- _----__ 10.0 ____ 60 _61 __ SUMMER of 95 ____________ ---- _---- __ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _----_---- _---- _9.8 __ 9.8 ____ --- _62 __ NORTHWEST SNOW _______ ---- _---- __9.5 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _----_---- _---- _---- __ 9.5 ____ 61 _63 __ EVENING STAR ___________ ---- _---- __---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _----_---- _ 9.0 _---- __ 9.0 ____ 62 _64 __ FEB1991BLIZZARD ________ ---- _---- __ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _----_---- _---- _8.6 __ 8.6 ____ --- _65 __ LETTERBOXER ___________ ---- _ ---- _3.6 _ ---- _4.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 8.5 ____ 63 _66 __ IAPENNELL _______________---- _6.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _1.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 8.1 ____ 64 _67 __ MP-R ____________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 7.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.8 ____ 65 T68 __ BOOFERKING _____________3.0 _4.7 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.7 ____T-66 T68 __ CORAM ___________________---- _---- _---- _7.7 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.7 ____T-66 _70 __ V FOR VERY COLD _________ 7.6 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.6 ____ 68 _71 __ LF1002 ___________________ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _7.0 _ ---- _ ----_---- _---- _---- __ 7.0 ____ 69 _72 __ RICEY076 _________________---- _---- _---- _6.9 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 6.9 ____ 70 _73__ MOORLANDER _____________5.8 _---- _---- _0.5 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 6.3 ____ 71 T74 __ JAMES M __________________---- _---- _5.9 _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 5.9 ____T-72 T74 __ POLAR MARITIME __________ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _----_ ---- _ ----_ 5.9 _---- _---- __ 5.9 ____T-72 _76 __ CASTELLANUS80 ___________---- _2.8 _2.3 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 5.1 ____ 74 T77 __ ROSS90 ___________________---- _---- _5.0 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- __ 5.0 ____T-75 T77 __ BACKTRACK_______________ ---- _---- _---- _5.0 _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- __ 5.0 ____T-75 _79 __ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ______ ---- _---- _4.5 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- __ 4.5 ____ 77 _80 __ NN2013 ___________________ ---- _---- __ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _----_---- _---- _4.4 __ 4.4 ____ --- T81 _ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM__----_ ----_----_ 4.3_ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 4.3 ____T-78 T81 __ ==METEO-MAN==___________---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ----_ 4.3 _---- __ 4.3 ____T-78 _83 __ MARK NEAL _______________ ---- _---- _---- _2.9 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- __ 2.9 ____ 80 _84 __ MATT TARRANT ____________---- _---- _---- _2.8 _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 2.8 ____ 81 T85 __ MORE SNOW ______________2.6 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ 2.6 ____T-82 T85 __ COLDEST WINTER __________---- _---- _---- _ 0.4 _---- _---- _2.2 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 2.6 ____T-82 T85 __ DUNCAN McALISTER________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ 2.6 _ ---- _---- _---- __ 2.6 ____T-82 _88 __ STEVE MURR ______________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _ ---- _ 2.3 _ ---- _ ---- __ 2.3 ____ 85 _89 __ ALLWEATHER ______________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ 1.8 _---- __ 1.8 ____ 86 T90 __ SKY FULL _________________ ---- _---- _1.2 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 1.2 ____T-87 T90 __ 38.5*C ____________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 _ ---- _---- _---- __ 1.2 ____T-87 _92 ___ SNOW DRAGON ___________---- _---- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 0.8 __ 0.8 ____ ---- T93 __ WEIRPIG __________________ 0.4 _---- _----- _----_ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 0.4 ____T-89 T93 __ LETTUCING GUTTED ________0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 _0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 _0.0 _0.0 _0.0 __ 0.4 ____T-89 _95 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 __ ---- _---- _ 0.2 _----_ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 0.2 ____ 91 _96 __ DEEP SNOW PLEASE ________---- _---- _---- _0.0 _ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _---- _---- _---- __ 0.0 ____ 92 _____________________________________________________________________________ (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.) Hadley version to be posted when available ...

Extreme seasonal warmth for SE Europe this weekend. The summer does not want to end. Do not like this pattern establishing , seems mild locked in for many in Euroland for sometime to come. Think ski resort planners now worried about end of November start in some of the higher resorts. Currently freezing level over our mountains is 3500m.

As a reminder to all....this is what an utterly horrendous winter chart of doom looks like: December 2015, a month we’d all like to forget. Just look at the state of the PV there! Angry doesn’t do it justice!

Massive mean 1030mb high over E Europe between D8 and D10 ... regardless of the clusters showing heights to our north, I think the presence of this high shuts out any very cold options for a couple of weeks.

A lone Redshank on the Truro River today

As one of my childhood heroes, Malcolm X, said: The future belongs to those who prepare for it today...

I just re-read Ian's post MIA and, alas, all I can see is a set of predictions that can all be disproved by future observation...So how, pray, can he be being political? If someone (who was coincidentally convinced by AGW theory) were to suggest that the moon will still be there tomorrow, you'd claim they were being political!

Also Rog and Rel. Note that it has taken nearly 250years to even reach the levels of warmth recorded in 1772. We are used to seeing cold records for the 18th century, but this indicates that large changes were also taking place at that time. MIA