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Showing content with the highest reputation on 29/10/18 in all areas

  1. -5.8C overnight here - and a snaw flurry as well. Currently, -3.0C. Aaaaaand we're aff!
    9 points
  2. Coldest night of Autumn so far. Currently -4c. Heavy frost and blue sky. As usual airport is colder at -7c. Pretty impressive lows for October!
    8 points
  3. Outlook - Unsettled and temps below average The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight. An anticyclonic squeeze After a clear night, but still some shower activity in the east. today will start with a widespread frost and some freezing fog, particularly in the west. But this will clear fairly quickly resulting in a sunny but quite chilly day with still some shower activity in eastern regions. This evening and overnight a repeat in western regions of clear skies and frost but in the east the shower activity peps up with an occlusion adjacent ito the coast and more widespread and heavy rain encroaches the south east as the low to the south east and associated fronts move north west into the North Sea. For the moment the rain associated with the complex trough in the Atlantic remains west of Ireland. Through Tuesday the rain and quite strong winds in the south east will track north with a few showers likely further west and here the waggly front has nudged slightly east to be over Ireland. Generally still quite a chilly day with temps below average. Overnight Tuesday the rain clears as the low moves into southern Norway leaving a somewhat complex low pressure area to the west of the UK on Wednesday that will initiate some patchy rain in western regions Elsewhere should remain dry with temps maybe rising a tad but still no great shakes The slack low pressure remains over the UK on Thursday and with a few troughs scattered about sunny intervals and showers are the order of the day which will still be quite cool with temps below average. But meanwhile moves are afoot out to the west where TS Oscar has hitched a ride with the developing trough tracking east from Newfoundland From here and into Friday there is a major disagreement between last evening's fax from Exeter and the gfs so I will discard the latter for this post and await the ecm. Thus the low continues to deepen and track quickly north east, leaving Oscar to fill to the south west, and by midday Friday is 974mb to the west of Northern Ireland with the associated fronts bringing rain and strong winds to western regions of the UK. The NH profile at T120
    8 points
  4. Hello Jan 1987 a few days later - YES IN EARLY NOVEMBER!!
    7 points
  5. I agree that our meridional 2018 is continuing - a distinct lack of dominating westerlies for a long time now. Spotless days and low geomagnetic influence do seem to correlate with colder winters and when one aligns this with current ENSO and signs of Siberian high / Aleutian low combo in the wings we certainly cannot complain as to the background signals at this early stage. Even Siberian snow cover has made a late surge, prompting Cohen to tweet enthusiastically. I'm not seeing anything at the moment pointing to a strong atlantic waiting in the wings. If we had a descending eQBO rather than a wQBO we would be in near perfect territory...but by the time we get any substantial wQBO below 30mb I suspect it will be too late to impact on developments for the core of winter. I'm also feeling optimistic about this winter, though I've been burned enough times over the years to be cautious. I'm expecting a generally blocked pattern to sustain itself (temporary incursion of Oscar excepted), and if we see the vortex remain disorganised at lower levels and that Barents/Kara ridge stay strong in through the second half of November then it might be time to get properly excited. Low solar is certainly going to help in holding back the vortex, that's for sure.
    7 points
  6. Quite a stunning 240 chart from the ECM this evening No Polar Vortex. heights building to the North, trough disruption in the Atlantic. Only way forward from that chart is cold weather. The GFS on the face of it isn't so good with low pressure sat over the UK, however! Virtually no PV lobes over Canada or anywhere, heights across the pole, we could be seeing worse, this is not a normal chart for this time of year. GFS still hinting at polar vortex displacement towards Siberia later in November. Shannon entropy will be high in the coming days/weeks but! The broad theme is good going forward, a period of very unsettled weather looking likely for the UK but continued attacks on the Strat from below, no downwelling forecast currently with the disconnect continuing. We're on track for a cold start to winter as far as I'm concerned.
    7 points
  7. Yes I posted in the wrong thread- Awsome split vortex on ECM ! However lets not get carried away...
    6 points
  8. 6 points
  9. Low pressure hits a brick wall and parks itself over the UK Could be a lot of water falling in some places...very reminiscent of Nov 2009...
    6 points
  10. Sunspot blank days 176 now, so bigger than 200 well in sight and I am of the opinion that this is NOT cycle 24 Minima as that is 19/20 for me. Jetstream really meridional and further clear signs of that. I’ve said I’ll update more re potential dates of note, lunar modulating looking favourable and solar activity could be of extra interest too with an unusual high number of Earth facing Coronal Holes.....further jetstream meandering. I’m thinking more and more that this winter ‘might’ match a 20th century great.....winter of discontent? BFTP
    6 points
  11. Even by deep FI, that HP just keeps reinvigorating itself as troughing fails to push any further E than the UK
    5 points
  12. I remember through much of the 00s wondering whether we'd ever see a Winter with very cold and snowy spells again. There was also the likes of Ian Brown posting on here during that decade trying to convince us all that such Winters were a thing of the past as well. Luckily the Winters of 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13 and even 2017/18 in particular removed this doubt.
    4 points
  13. Not sure about that, last months covered the period Oct to Dec, it's only 3 months unlike the raw model data. I recall that it was plumping for a cold October, which incidentally hasn't happened of course, but would skew the average. I read the latest update as hedging bets as the long range forecast models from the major players differ, but we know this already. In fact I don't think the contingency planners forecast this month actually tells us anything we didn't know, next months may be more informative. Key questions related to the models being, will ECM seasonal stand firm for cold, will Glosea5 come off the fence, and will CFS reflect the supposed strat warming signals reported in some places...?
    4 points
  14. Last full SSW - at the end of November 1968! Not knocking it, but looking back this season here is a typical CFS forecast (posted by SM) - And here is how it panned out on today's weatheriscool plot - Are these CFS plots ever right?
    4 points
  15. Tantilising! Blocking to the east definitely possible by mid-month ... but possibly too far south for a truly cold easterly to set up. Last night's clusters were better in that respect.
    4 points
  16. The hill-tops had a fresh top-up of snow overnight, but this is disappearing as I type as is the earlier skim of ice on the car windscreens. A quick scan overhead and of the radar would indicate that a rain/sleet shower is imminent. Cold, damp, temp 2C currently and generally nae nice outside. It’s usually at this time of year I start feeding the birds, the berries have gone except a few in the Yew tree, but unfortunately some rats appear to have taken up residence in the barn/garden. Two have been trapped recently (one was enormous!) and although I have not actually seen any since then, I suspect there may be at least one more hanging around.
    4 points
  17. I can confidently predict a very cold, very snowy winter. Our boiler has just given up the ghost and the last time it died was 2010. Thank goodness for British Gas cover, engineer arriving tomorrow.
    4 points
  18. Anything to back up your post or are you just going to post stupid one liners with absolutely no context whatsoever? You complain that the arctic sea ice isn't gone yet but that isn't forecast until the 2030s in the IPCC report. You say that sea levels haven't flooded New York yet but that won't happen till later in the century. Have you actually bothered to read the IPCC report or are you seeking to misinform? I'd have some respect for you if backed up your arguments with scientific literature but you don't. I may not agree with some of the things MIA writes but he posts in more detail. Your posts are just eccentric one liners. Climate change deniers are the flat earthers of the 21st century, skeptics I have time for. Those who write fake statements and misinform and flat out deny everything in front of them will be laughed at or pitied in 100 years time. Scientists will get overlooked, told they are part of some money gravy train (despite the fact I was skint at the end of my PhD) whilst the oil barons and politicians intentionally seek to put out misleading information so they fill up their own fat wallets.
    3 points
  19. Seems very likely to finish on 10.9C before corrections, so anything from 10.4C to 11.0C is possible as a final figure. Bang on average (10.7C) is probably the best bet.
    3 points
  20. Lovely time of year. Dark early and cool, cosy nights. What's not to like.
    3 points
  21. Snow showers on the horizon coming in across the Cairngorms from the SE. Last time I saw this was when the Beast from the East struck at the end of February this year. The button was certainly pressed for winter last Friday as its currently 4c with a moderate SE wind
    3 points
  22. Heavy frost here overnight and it's still thick in the shade. Middle of the day and only 1.7 C in the sheltered back garden.
    3 points
  23. The usual westward correction on GFS once it gets nearer to the reliable timeframe occurring on the 6z - trough further West at 123 by a few hundred miles.
    3 points
  24. 59% gives final tally of 215 days blank at that run rate... I would guess in theory 220-225 could be in the cards
    3 points
  25. Showery morning in Balmedie. Seem to have missed the real cold as 6 degrees here.
    3 points
  26. Same here and first ice on puddles. Newly dug ground in garden frozen too.
    3 points
  27. Mind you... that control run cluster has a lot of Scandi High potential with a potential easterly underneath.
    3 points
  28. Sorry late to the party,been catching up on the X factor i do like the NH profile on the ecm,the pv very disjointed/contorted That ecm was a good show this evening but seriously i have no clue as to where we are heading at the moment cos the models are all over the place,there is a big ? on where sub tropical Oscar will be heading and i wouldn't like to call the shots at the moment but what hasn't changed in the last couple of days is the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb height anomoly charts they still show a strong +ve height anomoly in Scandinavia up into the pole some of you are probably sick of seing this same pattern but it could be interesting later on.
    3 points
  29. taking all into cosideration-at present. the theme remains... a step block into phases -anom-.. just raw model deluded-decipher on the anx... trop bashing is in early phase with the goings on in the deep pacific...and @the asian side. but block gain and QBO.. is still favourable..if not morso; as we edge into the northern hemispherical winter phase!. MJO: Illustarates note the momentum' suring to equate non-normal forcing of both upper happenings...and likely outs!!.. its decent atm if a cold north-western euro winter is your desire..and conflicts..and evolutions will soon begin- unfold.... what at time for interest!!!!!.. blocky blocky blocky....amd yes nao-phase is where you would like it.... given your cold pref.... ..
    3 points
  30. Got the butternut squashes in today. The sun appeared here around lunchtime which was nice but still a very cold wind. Now to make soup.
    3 points
  31. IMO guys, there's nothing, anywhere, that'll prevent cold winters from happening; though they will, in the long term, almost certainly become rarer, due to AGW...? Having said that, the notion that lowland snow will very soon become a thing of the past (especially since it was first put forward about 15yrs ago!) is patent nonsense; the warming trend is, IMO, nowhere near steep enough to entirely wipe-out the results of whatever 'caused' the winters of 1947, '63 and '79 etc., for quite a while yet. Will Fred's Snowmageddon occur within the next three years? Honestly I do not know. But the chances do appear to be the best since at least the start of the new millennium...Only time will tell?
    2 points
  32. For those that like this sort of thing there is a nice table in the Supplemental Material of formulae giving the radiative forcing for some common greenhouse gasses. I hadn't seen them in this sort of ready reckoner form before, sorry if I am treading on old ground. Looking at he latest concentration of Carbon Dioxide I see it is at 407ppm and taking pre-industrial as 280 ppm we get 5.35(ln407 - ln280) = 2.00 W/m2 a nice round number. A doubling of CO2 gives 5.35(ln560 - ln280) = 3.7 W/m2, NAD
    2 points
  33. Not very impressive temps today http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/15.html
    2 points
  34. Clear skies and light winds will continue in western areas resulting in a cold night with widespread frosts. But further east the showers, that have continued through the day' will pep up overnight as a weakening occlusion tracks west from the North Sea. And also. but by no means least, heavy rain and strong winds. associated with the low moving into the North Sea from the south east, will start to impact the south east after midnight. Perhaps give Clacton a miss tomorrow
    2 points
  35. The trap I use, I'm afraid, is one rather like a large mousetrap. I would not consider using poison either. For mice, live traps are used when necessary and the trappees are released up Glen Esk or thereabouts - I believe house mice are quite adaptable to different environments??
    2 points
  36. Had a brief heavy shower which had something wintry in it. It sure what though? Sun back out now and temp jumped up to 6C. Low this morning of -1.0C.
    2 points
  37. GFS 6z tends to keep the jet away to the south of the uk, but more importantly doesn’t look as strong as it did on the whole in the 0z when exiting the US/Newfoundland. Subsequently this leaves a lot more high pressure around (or at least weaker troughs) with a much greater chance of colder weather, especially in the North. Only one run of course!!
    2 points
  38. 11 day's blank, 177 for 2018, 59% Solar flux 69
    2 points
  39. The ecm does partially phase Oscar with the trough resulting in quite an elongated structured low which then tracks north east to bring some very wet and windy weather to the UK on Saturday. Along the same lines as the fax albeit with some differences, the timing being one.
    2 points
  40. An alternative PDO - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/
    2 points
  41. This is miles out but my interest for cold in November starts here Confused? Well what I notice is a trend to pull the strongest heights west, and not particularly strong heights over Europe. That kind of set up normally leads to PM rather than TM air further down the line. Might be waiting a while for cold this month, though, if that surface high sets up over E Europe.
    2 points
  42. @Bring Back1962-63 thank you for these excellent updates. The situation in the Arctic has got beyond the stage where it it should merely ring alarm bells but is now instead sounding deafening klaxons for the state of the planet. The data does not lie.
    2 points
  43. Aye, we had the same here at fort SS yesterday evening. Was hammering down at times from some meaty NE showers. These rarely fail to deliver here. First wintry prep of '18/19. Glorious cold, crisp morning right now after a bonus extra hour in bed.
    2 points
  44. Back home from hols in the Far East ( Banffshire! ) where the wind did blow mightily! It was absolutely Baltic yesterday morning when we left, but once we got home we'd left the wind and sleet behind. Plenty of white stuff on the mountains at Cluanie but not so much here. Temp was bang on zero around 8.30 but has now rushed up to the heady height of 1.8c with wall to wall sunshine. We had a lovely wee holiday cottage over by, the only downside was the total lack of WiFi or mobile signal, so I have a lot of catching up to do!
    2 points
  45. <wakes......blinks......yawns.....stretches.....> Summer slumber over ;-)
    2 points
  46. A wee covering of the white stuff when we left the hoose earlier this evening after showers from a biting cold wind, forecast looks promising for more through the night
    2 points
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