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Showing most liked content on 29/10/18 in all areas

  1. 9 likes
    -5.8C overnight here - and a snaw flurry as well. Currently, -3.0C. Aaaaaand we're aff!
  2. 7 likes
    Hello Jan 1987 a few days later - YES IN EARLY NOVEMBER!!
  3. 6 likes
    Low pressure hits a brick wall and parks itself over the UK Could be a lot of water falling in some places...very reminiscent of Nov 2009...
  4. 5 likes
    Even by deep FI, that HP just keeps reinvigorating itself as troughing fails to push any further E than the UK
  5. 3 likes
  6. 3 likes
    The usual westward correction on GFS once it gets nearer to the reliable timeframe occurring on the 6z - trough further West at 123 by a few hundred miles.
  7. 3 likes
    Showery morning in Balmedie. Seem to have missed the real cold as 6 degrees here.
  8. 3 likes
    taking all into cosideration-at present. the theme remains... a step block into phases -anom-.. just raw model deluded-decipher on the anx... trop bashing is in early phase with the goings on in the deep pacific...and @the asian side. but block gain and QBO.. is still favourable..if not morso; as we edge into the northern hemispherical winter phase!. MJO: Illustarates note the momentum' suring to equate non-normal forcing of both upper happenings...and likely outs!!.. its decent atm if a cold north-western euro winter is your desire..and conflicts..and evolutions will soon begin- unfold.... what at time for interest!!!!!.. blocky blocky blocky....amd yes nao-phase is where you would like it.... given your cold pref.... ..
  9. 2 likes
    Vortex looking distinctly swivel-eyed on the GFS at T174 as it nervously awaits whether it is to be dismembered as per the ECM 12z: T222: It may have a hat on but it sure isn't happy...
  10. 2 likes
    Diluted version of it evident in the ECM ensemble mean, T240: Also, the FV3 has a decent effort at it at T240, not quite to the extent of ECM: Interesting.
  11. 2 likes
    Not very impressive temps today http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/15.html
  12. 2 likes
    An alternative PDO - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/
  13. 1 like
    yes I have been closely monitoring over the past few days and I am keeping my eye on the growing scandi high possibly retrogressing towards Greenland leading us into an easterly (trend seems to be for 2nd week of November) P12 on the 18z is about as close as the GEFS members have got so far.
  14. 1 like
    It was definitely going for milder than average temperatures to December. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ond-v2.pdf
  15. 1 like
    I know its the GFS and we all know its biases but its getting very zonal looking in FI over the last 2 runs.
  16. 1 like
    Used to know a bloke called Mike Hocking...we had a teacher whose surname was Hunt. His initial was I. One kid asked another teacher if it was I for Isaac.....
  17. 1 like
    You do realise that Mike Hunt was one of ITV's greatest ever weathermen, lass?
  18. 1 like
  19. 1 like
    did you know that the met police couldn't catch the flu in an epidemic
  20. 1 like
    10.5c here to the 28th, 0.5c above the 1981-2010 average. Another big jump down tomorrow after today's mean of 3.8c.
  21. 1 like
    Yes north westerlys are crap. Usually only a few hours of slushy snow. Give me a beast from the east any day.
  22. 1 like
    Some photos of the moorland fire on winter hill this summer..
  23. 1 like
    And following the low at the end of the week another low forms at the base of the Atlantic trough, that is under pressure amplifying high pressure to west, and brings more rain over the UK by Sunday
  24. 1 like
    I was actually thinking the output on the 12s a bit meh tonight from the earlier models until we got to this from the ECM at T216: Then this at T240: Shredded vortex! Really something to watch on future runs!
  25. 1 like
    As we're up on the hill we didn't go subzero here, bottoming out at a respectable 0.1C....but that's still the coldest October day since 26th October 2012 when it was -0.9C.
  26. 1 like
    This looks like being a deep minimum infact we seem to be entering a Grand Solar Minimum so I am optimistic about the next three winters and winter prospects for decades to come.
  27. 1 like
    I have found the live rat trap cages work very well in the past as I didn't want to poison them due to having dogs (Boarder Terriers). The only problem being is there is no humane way of killing them once trapped.. But certainly better than the agony they must go through being poisoned.
  28. 1 like
    Ciel we had rats for a time as well. Girl next door was overfeeding the birds like hell - huge loads of pasta and bread scattered all over her garden every morning before she went to work. The whole terrace of 4 cottages had rats - one poor man came face to face close up with one that popped up out of his bin under the sink! So we clubbed together and got a Rat Man in
  29. 1 like
  30. 1 like
    lol, Aleman, I agree about the clocks. I spent ages yesterday morning, fiddling with the clocks on the electronic stuff in the kitchen and the method to reset them was not exactly intuitive. Not long after success I had a brief power-cut which sent them all back into a spin again.
  31. 1 like
    Thanks! They are one of the easier crops to grow, they like a fertile soil though with lots of added compost/manure. I was up early this morning and it was frosty, the temperature dipped to 1C. Nice and sunny day, so far.
  32. 1 like
  33. 1 like
    And not forgetting the 2nd half of Nov 2005 etc The cold season of 88/89 Nov was the most wintry month.
  34. 1 like
    Run through all the models and there's shallow heights even the GFS shows this, but it looks like the gfs wants to follow the ECM ideas in the latter frames. Also JMA is without interest also has a slowing westerly flow. I reckon mid November could show some potential, although stormy period to get through first. In fact some very damaging winds plenty of rain and at times wintry in the mountains of Scotland. Still very interesting model watching.
  35. 1 like
    Always worth noting the jetstream profile forecasts for the polar front - these suggest a continuation of the rather amplified flow, though not to the same degree as current, the general theme is for a NW-SE aligned jet diving frontal/trough activity through the UK and to our SW into France and Spain, hence not surprised to see the models showing slow moving features as we move into November proper, perhaps with some secondary low formation, and trough disruption. How ex tropical storm Oscar interacts with the jet remains to be seen, but it looks like developing into a significant feature coming cut off from the main trough and quite possibly resulting a cyclonic spell, with a brief very mild surge of uppers next weekend before swinging SE, a deeper more closed feature would allow rapid ridge development to its west, and most likely surging north, hence we could be back in a northerly again quite quickly if it separates cleanly from the trough. An unsettled very typical start to November, snow for northern hills.
  36. 1 like
    Solar acitivity was causing the positve NAO.
  37. 1 like
  38. 1 like
    lovely sunny day today.good frost last night and should be another tonight. had to clear snow off the car yest morn so an early start this year!
  39. 1 like
    Where are you? 10.7c here to the 27th, 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average.
  40. 1 like
    Sunny Sheffield down to 11.2 +0.4C above normal. Rainfall 53mm 64% of the monthly average. Playing with the local forecast average predicts a 10.5C finish and slightly above average and very dry with little in the way of rain to come before the months end. GFS comes up with the same value. Time will tell.
  41. 1 like
  42. 1 like
    11.0c here to the 26th, 1.0c above the 1981-2010 average. 45.2mm so far this month.
  43. 1 like
    Locally 56mm of rainfall here this month, with 9 days of >=1mm, of this 40mm fell in the very wet weekend 2 weeks ago. Locally 153mm of rainfall here this autumn, with 22 days of >=1mm, of this 63mm fell 20th-22th Sept and 40mm fell 11th-13th October.
  44. 1 like
    But it's thanks to this and another rain event On October 14th of 18.3mm that we seem to be close to beating last Autumn's rain total 157.3mm with still November to go.
  45. 1 like
    Black isle has a dusting but nothing here at 1.5c and bright. Snow dwon to 600 feet just the west of us and Cawdor hills completely white. Lots of snow covered high ground to the north across the Firth.. Camera on the blink so sorry no photos.
  46. 1 like
    11.2c here to the 25th, 1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.
  47. 1 like
    Cold windy and more snow showers on the radar heading my way although the Firth may turn them to sleet.Currently 3.5c
  48. 1 like
    Anyone else on lamp-post / backdoor light duty tonight? And where's Hawsey when he's needed? Still just vaguely wintry showers here. I have 70m elevation near Wick tonight so better than at home!
  49. 1 like
    Expressing low confidence seems the right thing to do, to me; it sure beats the bluster, over-confidence and hubris that one associates with many of those self-styled LRFers who have far less knowledge/data available than the Met does, IMO...? I'd far rather see someone admit to not knowing everything than a bunch of silly predictions for widespread snow and blizzards - on, say, January 27. Super computers or not.
  50. 1 like
    I think it just goes to show what an oversensitive, nannied state we've become that a bit of (mostly) water vapour seems to upset so many people. I don't think it helps that the medical profession haven't come out in defence of vapes...well, actually they did and quietly they have said that compared to smoking, vaping is almost certainly considerably less detrimental to health. IMO they have realised there isn't much money to be made through advocating vapes as the market has already been seized upon. Here is some points raised by PHE findings on vapes- found here https://www.gov.uk/government/news/phe-publishes-independent-expert-e-cigarettes-evidence-review The last point is particularly pertinent and I find it to be true. Too many people incorrectly believe nicotine to be harmful, when in reality it is on a similar level to caffeine. It is mainly the tar found in cigarettes that makes them so detrimental to health. vaping poses only a small fraction of the risks of smoking and switching completely from smoking to vaping conveys substantial health benefits e-cigarettes could be contributing to at least 20,000 successful new quits per year and possibly many more e-cigarette use is associated with improved quit success rates over the last year and an accelerated drop in smoking rates across the country many thousands of smokers incorrectly believe that vaping is as harmful as smoking; around 40% of smokers have not even tried an e-cigarette there is much public misunderstanding about nicotine (less than 10% of adults understand that most of the harms to health from smoking are not caused by nicotine)
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