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Showing content with the highest reputation on 29/10/18 in all areas

  1. 9 points
    -5.8C overnight here - and a snaw flurry as well. Currently, -3.0C. Aaaaaand we're aff!
  2. 8 points
    Coldest night of Autumn so far. Currently -4c. Heavy frost and blue sky. As usual airport is colder at -7c. Pretty impressive lows for October!
  3. 8 points
    Outlook - Unsettled and temps below average The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight. An anticyclonic squeeze After a clear night, but still some shower activity in the east. today will start with a widespread frost and some freezing fog, particularly in the west. But this will clear fairly quickly resulting in a sunny but quite chilly day with still some shower activity in eastern regions. This evening and overnight a repeat in western regions of clear skies and frost but in the east the shower activity peps up with an occlusion adjacent ito the coast and more widespread and heavy rain encroaches the south east as the low to the south east and associated fronts move north west into the North Sea. For the moment the rain associated with the complex trough in the Atlantic remains west of Ireland. Through Tuesday the rain and quite strong winds in the south east will track north with a few showers likely further west and here the waggly front has nudged slightly east to be over Ireland. Generally still quite a chilly day with temps below average. Overnight Tuesday the rain clears as the low moves into southern Norway leaving a somewhat complex low pressure area to the west of the UK on Wednesday that will initiate some patchy rain in western regions Elsewhere should remain dry with temps maybe rising a tad but still no great shakes The slack low pressure remains over the UK on Thursday and with a few troughs scattered about sunny intervals and showers are the order of the day which will still be quite cool with temps below average. But meanwhile moves are afoot out to the west where TS Oscar has hitched a ride with the developing trough tracking east from Newfoundland From here and into Friday there is a major disagreement between last evening's fax from Exeter and the gfs so I will discard the latter for this post and await the ecm. Thus the low continues to deepen and track quickly north east, leaving Oscar to fill to the south west, and by midday Friday is 974mb to the west of Northern Ireland with the associated fronts bringing rain and strong winds to western regions of the UK. The NH profile at T120
  4. 7 points
    I agree that our meridional 2018 is continuing - a distinct lack of dominating westerlies for a long time now. Spotless days and low geomagnetic influence do seem to correlate with colder winters and when one aligns this with current ENSO and signs of Siberian high / Aleutian low combo in the wings we certainly cannot complain as to the background signals at this early stage. Even Siberian snow cover has made a late surge, prompting Cohen to tweet enthusiastically. I'm not seeing anything at the moment pointing to a strong atlantic waiting in the wings. If we had a descending eQBO rather than a wQBO we would be in near perfect territory...but by the time we get any substantial wQBO below 30mb I suspect it will be too late to impact on developments for the core of winter. I'm also feeling optimistic about this winter, though I've been burned enough times over the years to be cautious. I'm expecting a generally blocked pattern to sustain itself (temporary incursion of Oscar excepted), and if we see the vortex remain disorganised at lower levels and that Barents/Kara ridge stay strong in through the second half of November then it might be time to get properly excited. Low solar is certainly going to help in holding back the vortex, that's for sure.
  5. 7 points
    Quite a stunning 240 chart from the ECM this evening No Polar Vortex. heights building to the North, trough disruption in the Atlantic. Only way forward from that chart is cold weather. The GFS on the face of it isn't so good with low pressure sat over the UK, however! Virtually no PV lobes over Canada or anywhere, heights across the pole, we could be seeing worse, this is not a normal chart for this time of year. GFS still hinting at polar vortex displacement towards Siberia later in November. Shannon entropy will be high in the coming days/weeks but! The broad theme is good going forward, a period of very unsettled weather looking likely for the UK but continued attacks on the Strat from below, no downwelling forecast currently with the disconnect continuing. We're on track for a cold start to winter as far as I'm concerned.
  6. 6 points
    Low pressure hits a brick wall and parks itself over the UK Could be a lot of water falling in some places...very reminiscent of Nov 2009...
  7. 6 points
    Sunspot blank days 176 now, so bigger than 200 well in sight and I am of the opinion that this is NOT cycle 24 Minima as that is 19/20 for me. Jetstream really meridional and further clear signs of that. I’ve said I’ll update more re potential dates of note, lunar modulating looking favourable and solar activity could be of extra interest too with an unusual high number of Earth facing Coronal Holes.....further jetstream meandering. I’m thinking more and more that this winter ‘might’ match a 20th century great.....winter of discontent? BFTP
  8. 5 points
    Even by deep FI, that HP just keeps reinvigorating itself as troughing fails to push any further E than the UK
  9. 4 points
    The hill-tops had a fresh top-up of snow overnight, but this is disappearing as I type as is the earlier skim of ice on the car windscreens. A quick scan overhead and of the radar would indicate that a rain/sleet shower is imminent. Cold, damp, temp 2C currently and generally nae nice outside. It’s usually at this time of year I start feeding the birds, the berries have gone except a few in the Yew tree, but unfortunately some rats appear to have taken up residence in the barn/garden. Two have been trapped recently (one was enormous!) and although I have not actually seen any since then, I suspect there may be at least one more hanging around.
  10. 4 points
    I can confidently predict a very cold, very snowy winter. Our boiler has just given up the ghost and the last time it died was 2010. Thank goodness for British Gas cover, engineer arriving tomorrow.
  11. 3 points
    The usual westward correction on GFS once it gets nearer to the reliable timeframe occurring on the 6z - trough further West at 123 by a few hundred miles.
  12. 3 points
    59% gives final tally of 215 days blank at that run rate... I would guess in theory 220-225 could be in the cards
  13. 3 points
    Showery morning in Balmedie. Seem to have missed the real cold as 6 degrees here.
  14. 3 points
    Same here and first ice on puddles. Newly dug ground in garden frozen too.
  15. 3 points
    Mind you... that control run cluster has a lot of Scandi High potential with a potential easterly underneath.
  16. 3 points
    Sorry late to the party,been catching up on the X factor🤩 i do like the NH profile on the ecm,the pv very disjointed/contorted😁 That ecm was a good show this evening but seriously i have no clue as to where we are heading at the moment cos the models are all over the place,there is a big ? on where sub tropical Oscar will be heading and i wouldn't like to call the shots at the moment but what hasn't changed in the last couple of days is the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb height anomoly charts they still show a strong +ve height anomoly in Scandinavia up into the pole some of you are probably sick of seing this same pattern but it could be interesting later on.
  17. 3 points
    taking all into cosideration-at present. the theme remains... a step block into phases -anom-.. just raw model deluded-decipher on the anx... trop bashing is in early phase with the goings on in the deep pacific...and @the asian side. but block gain and QBO.. is still favourable..if not morso; as we edge into the northern hemispherical winter phase!. MJO: Illustarates note the momentum' suring to equate non-normal forcing of both upper happenings...and likely outs!!.. its decent atm if a cold north-western euro winter is your desire..and conflicts..and evolutions will soon begin- unfold.... what at time for interest!!!!!.. blocky blocky blocky....amd yes nao-phase is where you would like it.... given your cold pref.... ..
  18. 3 points
    Got the butternut squashes in today. The sun appeared here around lunchtime which was nice but still a very cold wind. Now to make soup.
  19. 2 points
    GFS 6z tends to keep the jet away to the south of the uk, but more importantly doesn’t look as strong as it did on the whole in the 0z when exiting the US/Newfoundland. Subsequently this leaves a lot more high pressure around (or at least weaker troughs) with a much greater chance of colder weather, especially in the North. Only one run of course!!
  20. 2 points
    An alternative PDO - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/
  21. 2 points
    This is miles out but my interest for cold in November starts here Confused? Well what I notice is a trend to pull the strongest heights west, and not particularly strong heights over Europe. That kind of set up normally leads to PM rather than TM air further down the line. Might be waiting a while for cold this month, though, if that surface high sets up over E Europe.
  22. 2 points
  23. 2 points
    @Bring Back1962-63 thank you for these excellent updates. The situation in the Arctic has got beyond the stage where it it should merely ring alarm bells but is now instead sounding deafening klaxons for the state of the planet. The data does not lie.
  24. 2 points
    Aye, we had the same here at fort SS yesterday evening. Was hammering down at times from some meaty NE showers. These rarely fail to deliver here. First wintry prep of '18/19. Glorious cold, crisp morning right now after a bonus extra hour in bed.
  25. 2 points
    A wee covering of the white stuff when we left the hoose earlier this evening after showers from a biting cold wind, forecast looks promising for more through the night ❄️
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