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I’m calling that a “tweak here” now all we need is a tweak there!! Energy wants to go under, it’s only late October and already the charts are exciting me, Better tell the wife she’s lost me now until March/April. (Cheers Richard)

Back to the model output and the GFS is not backing down from the very cold uppers, may see some lower lying areas see some snow/wintry showers. Meteociel precpitation forecasts suggest so! Perhaps Wales and Scotland could do pretty well? Maybe a bit of sleet in some of the east coast showers? Impressive early cold pool over Scandi on Monday. A few people saying they are worried about getting cold synoptics now. The weather does not have a budget, the weather gods don't think 'Ah I used up 6 easterlies in November so I won't use any more for the winter'. The weather will do whatever it wants and all we can look at are long range signals for an inkling and hope they persist into the short range. Enjoy the ride. Look at November 2010 or November 1878 for blocked Novembers leading to very good winters.

Also GFS moving away from the warm 850s pushing back into Europe to be replaced by colder air Also watch this shortwave over the next few runs as it may well carve back SW reinforcing the cold- 2018 the new era of shortwave 'enhancers' instead of spoilers...

two pics that show the current formats !!!.. And compare in view...perfectly !!

OMG. What a time to be a weather enthusiast! After some of the most eventful weather conditions to come our way in recent years showing up in just the last nine months alone, we now have the following charts on view in the pretty reliable short term - and it's not even November yet!! UKMO ECM GFS GEM. . Surely this is the stuff of deep mid-winter? No, it's just 144 hours away. But the best thing is, it's brought back all the old NW Coldies to move this thread along at three pages a day and more. Fantastic reading, hours of fun, informative, educational and sometime hilarious posts galore. You just can't buy this stuff with money. Thanks to everyone out there taking the trouble to make their thoughts known to us all - and helping me to understand a little more about this wonderful, chaotic, unpredictable thing we call WEATHER!

What we are seeing is a move away from the hinting of record warmth to a potential forward moving of attempt after attempt of a cold pattern and reloading wanting to take hold. This for me is what we seek, with a more ‘apparent’ route as we head to deep Nov. Encouraging indeed Welcome to the LIA Footprint.....it is upon us BFTP

Continued changes now with the outlook past the northerly . The key thing in these situations is to maintain low pressure over northern Italy , this acts as a block to any milder air moving nw from the Med. As we’ve seen today the main area of low heights to the nw doesn’t head se and instead energy disrupts se. Its still an evolving situation so past the northerly things could get a bit more interesting depending on where the models decide to stick low pressure to the south . And the orientation of the Scandi block , you really want that aligned from ene wsw so that could direct any deeper cold in towards the UK.

Mad charts!!!! Haven't ever seen it so busy in here in October before, lol!! After a wonderful summer of sun and heat, it's great to be back in here following the search for cold and snow! Thank you to all the knowledgeable people who post so clearly and help people like me understand so much more year on year - and get excited with It!!! Tee hee!!x

WOW - Just looked at the 6z for the first time -that is what is positively known as a stonking Northern hemispheric pattern wrt smashing the polar Vortex and leaving long lasting imprints in history for the rest of the winter.

Ground cooling via evaporation..is much quicker than the warming of. Flat underfeet surface temps-will quickly cool @amicable level... Anyway we continue to monitor events/evolutions for the first notable season incur... And with snaps like this coming ever further into frame...its wellworth shouting about !!! Some eye popping stuff as we crawl into early winter...

Zonal wind reduction forecast gathering pace !!!

Oh dear.... naughty GFS 06z, @nick sussex I hope you’ve got the stockpile of medication ready and the hotline on standby for members, it could be a long season with the GFS churning out charts like this already What a sight for sore eyes that is

I am sure that everyone is aware of the rapid pattern change in a couple of day’s time, courtesy of events upstream, so no need to dwell. And talking of upstream, cat 4 hurricane Willa is about to hit Mexico, hopefully without dire consequences. Back to the present and the 500mb and surface analysis for midnight. As can be readily seen there is a squeeze going on between the trough and the high cell and thus some strong NW winds over Scotland during the night which will move down over the north east of England during the day. Could well be 50-60mph gusts in exposed areas. The winds will abate by evening Added to this the front(s) will also move a tad south so patchy rain/drizzle, mainly over Scotland. Elsewhere there has been some high cloud down as far as the Midlands but further south fairly clear with some mist/fog patches. These will clear quickly leaving a sunny day for much of wales and central/southern England. Still some patchy rain around overnight, still mainly in in Scotland, but the winds continue to abate. The patchy rain/drizzle is persistent over western Scotland on Wednesday and still breezy here but elsewhere the high pressure becomes more influential and although there will be a fair amount of cloud around a quite pleasant day and warming up a tad. Best make the most of it. By Thursday the transition is well underway with the trough over NE North America and the high pressure amplifying in the western Atlantic. Thus another trough and cold air is tracking south east towards Scotland with the cold front just west of the Hebrides at midday. From here it will track south east with rain into Scotland and N. Ireland by evening but elsewhere cloudy with some sunshine and temps generally around average. Over Thursday night and through Friday the wave that has formed on the front becomes quite a vigorous feature as it tracks into southern Norway as the cold front continues to track south east accompanied by colder air and showery rain. But behind it is the following occlusion that hails the northerly arctic air and this very unstable regime will initiate frequent squally wintry showers with snow on the high ground in the north By Saturday the northerly regime covers the whole of the UK with possible the winds reaching gale force in some areas so quite a nasty wind chill. A continuation of squally wintry showers that will likely be of snow on the high ground in Scotland and possible further south The position at midnight Sunday finds the upper trough forced south as the ridge to the west comes under increasing pressure and it's a case of "where do we go from here"?

Evening all just a quick one from me as i am suffering an eye problem due to being diagnosed with dry eye syndrome(grittyness in the eyes) and is quiet sore at the mo the latest from cpc looks encouraging this evening both the 6-10 and 8-14 days http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php NAO/AO both of these was forecasted to go neutral to slightly positive last evening but now we have a secondary dip esp the AO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Dutch de-built ens are showing all members going for easterly winds from Saturday through till Monday evening,what happens after that is anyones guess https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?type=eps_pluim so there we have it,a northerly is cert and the easterly looks cert but beyond that,we will find out going to put some more eyedrops in now?️ and crack open some more beers

I know it is in FL but WOW!!! one route from there and it's from the NE.

Snap. Coming home last night, saw a hare brilliantly illuminated by the huge moon, wish I'd had my camera then too.

i had 3 inchs of snow on Sept 11 that stuck around for weeks ..even though it had been in the mid 20s a few days before and came of a warm summer..with temps hitting 40c just 4 weeks previous to that

I think it might be a fundamental part of the human psyche, QS: in the natural world, in which we (and our languages) evolved, most things are in limited supply and over-indulgence today does imply a shortage tomorrow...? Why else would our intuition/gut instinct tell us that, after throwing four straight sixes, our chance of throwing a fifth is somehow reduced - when we all know that it isn't? I don't know about you, but I always have an internal battle going on: my gut says one thing (we can use-up cold synoptics too quickly) my head says another (oh no we can't)...

If you remember we went straight from winter and cold into summer with hot weather so maybe a straight switch back again to the cold looking at what the models are showing ..... ☺

And, your point is?.... I said 2010 and 1878 were examples of blocked months followed by cold winters, in spite of the milder start it still had a very strong -NAO, as did November 1995 and the winter that followed it wasn't too bad either..., just because we are having some blocked synoptics now doesn't mean we won't later. The ECM this morning does bear a lot of similarities to November 1995 with its forecast pattern, a slack jet, low pressure to our south but still managing to bring up warm air from the Med! GFS also going for a slack but cyclonic pattern with some residual colder air still lingering over parts of the UK.

The first half of Nov 10 was among the mildest on record, i think people's memories are getting skewed.

That P12 chart is just bonkers! There is a massive amount of uncertainty in the GEFS at that time! here, this plot looks like a really bad brain scan of the northern hemisphere. Will take a few days before the evolution post weekend northerly can be determined. The main interest though is whether such mangled trop PV charts will persist into late November or winter proper. Hope so. Interesting times, as it has been all year frankly!

While we wait for ECM's latest offerings we have what I can only describe as an amazing red sky with the sun setting in the west and the crazy full moon up in the east - and a cool to cold feeling in the air lol

If we establish the block I think fears of it being too early will fade quickly. That Greenland High in the 06z GFS for example is only 10 days before the cold spell of 2010 started. Scandinavia looks like it will cool down quite a bit during the next week or so too.

Tuesday not without interest on the 00z GFS. If the cold air from the east can undercut that approaching front ? Would be more likely to deliver snow if it were Dec or Jan and the uppers / dew points were a tad lower, so it will be very boarderline.

Absolute peach of a sunset over Hols Bay

Madness for the time of year, breathtaking.

OMG . WHAT A BLOODY CHART. Cold air about to flood in from the North East . Shame its 16 days away . But saying that them ECM clusters look good for northern blocking too .

GFS6z certainly sniffing around at high latitude blocking continuing into November. A monumental Greenland block into FI ..

EC clusters are getting more and more interested in maintaining northern blocking into November - see clusters 1 and 4, which account for 57% of the ensembles.

And why not. solar minimum and el nino. Weakened and vortex on the Siberian side.

We are 6 - 8 weeks too early - but after a rather Nina-esque fall in GLAAM we are now seeing a steep rise in the calculated overall tendency This early season mid atlantic ridge scenario produced off the back of the fall should be replaced by a much more meridional pattern conducive to the high lat blocks that we so crave in winter. EPS shows this well at 7 days' range Where after this? It's still a bit early to get excited to be honest - charts like this in late December would offer snowfall to parts of lowland Britain but right now it is too early. But with the MJO passing through phases 8-1 I'd take a stab at the rather blocked pattern continuing through to mid November.

Step in mate,destination time>November patience Dan,i know we haven't got much of that and it is the same every year but still a long time to go,it is better than nothing to see these synoptics so early in the season than the atlantic dross we have endured so many a year prior to the winter season, i know things can drastically change for the worse if the pv ramps up but it took a huge blow early this year and i hope it has still got deflated gloves on. let's have a look at some synoptics and charts etc:- here is the latest from the cpc 500mb outlook days 6-10/8-14 mean anomoly's,the chart up to ten days shows trough(low) over Iberia with a Scandi hp(high pressure) cell with some sort of flow from the east but the upper flow shows some sort of trough disruption if i am reading that properly,the chart up to 14 days not too disimilar to the first,subtle difference is the trough out of SE Greenland moving on a SE trajectory with height's building north of that into greenland,ok i am talking into too much detail as they are anomoly's but that is how i see it The ten day mean charts from the ecm/gfs are pretty similar with one another with the pv(most of it)parked over towards the Siberian side(this is a good thing) with displaced Azures hp cell well out SW and trough disruption against the block to our NE,below are the ens 850hpa temp graph's from ecm/gefs and as you can see from the ecm ens the cold has been extended a day(left one from the 19th compared to todays on the right) and finally these little fella's maybe paying a visit this weekend to enjoy what's left of our summer barbeque's oh wait!!!,the ecm is showing a spanish plume later next week,com'on guy's we are off.....

Except the potential warm up end of next week has also been noted in the coldies model thread? No need for baseless digs at other members looking forward to winter. If you dont have anything to say regarding the model outputs then please dont pollute the threads with witty remarks that provide no contribution. I look forward to reading the posts from knowledgeable posters here as I'm new to this but these types of comments are not needed. Keep it to the moans thread.

P12 with a ridiculous amount of northern blocking P19 P20 NAVGEM

A northerly direct from deepest Arctic, then this Beasterly with a low in it - I imagine if this was Dec we’d have some serious snow in the SE. FI now of interest, especially if it removes any form of PV from the Canadian side again - trends etc...

Now this is interesting.. Major russian pen waa punching.. And the desired effect of amping-of cooling to the north east/scandi.. As i alluded previous..this will be the compact for upper air decrease..as we gain.. And spillage to the mid-upper latts occur.. Like a broken record....things are decidedly eye opening !!!

HIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!! I'M BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK!!

The biggest fear is probably the ground temps... It would be like being a kid on Christmas day, running down stairs and seeing the presents under the Tree, only for them to quickly disappear right in front of your eyes. Most upsetting Current Status:

Interesting how nearer the time the bloated troughing to the west is disrupting more with stronger height rises to the ne. Preferably the energy needs to be transferred more se rather than south towards Iberia . Overall though some good overnight changes for coldies . Still more changes to come and we’ve seen from past set ups that the models tend to be less than convincing when you’re dealing with trough disruption .

GFS has gone for a Carlsberg esq Greenland High out in FI there

That same band was over eastern england yesterday its now being pushed back further and further west!!

True enough - its a risk. Given the temperature gradient that looks likely to form off the east coast of US/Canada we'll be lucky to avoid at least one substantial period of cyclogenesis. However the picture is a bit more complicated than this - much depends on the passage of the jet as it moves through the American continent, and this is determined to a large extent by what is happening upstream in the pacific. Weak Nino may help prevent a flat pattern firing out on Canada, and we are all watching the development of the vortex carefully. Currently up at 10hpa it is building well, but at lower levels is still rather disorganised. It would require a number of factors to come together at once to create the nightmare +NAO flat and wet atlantic that many of us dread, and I think there is grounds for optimism that this wont occur this year. (famous last words....)

Not any huge changes for this weekend, Friday night into Saturday is looking very cold when adding in the effects of the wind. 850's are between -4 and -6 for most of the country, which I suspect are a tad too high for settling snow at low levels, but mountain areas further north should have a cracking few days. Talking of the upper temps, the 850 0c line is over the whole UK for 5 days starting Friday, so temperatures on the ground will certainly be low (single digits in most places) making it feel wintry whatever is falling from the sky. Time to dig out the hats and gloves!

I think history tells us that if it were to pan out like the below is showing, It’s likely that the undercutting low would be further SW. also if we can get the flow off the continent, uppers aren’t *as important anyway. Good times

Wouldn't worry too much about the GFS PPN charts, they're useless at the best of times. The APERGE is just coming into range of Saturday morning and shows a stream of showers across Northern Scotland and down the Eastern and Western coasts. Turning wintry across Scotland, probably some hail and thunder mixed in along coastal areas. I suspect Saturday night into Sunday will hold the greatest potential for a wider snowfall risk

Some small increases of snow cover.

Summer has been fantastic,went pumpkin picking yesterday in ashford,could not believe how warm it was,still in shorts and t-shirt,today has been another beautiful day,looking forward to some cooler weather though,and a nice cold,very snowy winter hopefully.

Snow for SW as cold air undercuts from SE.

It's good that there is still this thread available. It's good to get an idea what the weather's actually likely to do, rather than endure a non-stop reinforcement therapy-session for snow-starved coldies...Too much time spent in an echo chamber can be detrimental to one's long-term sanity, sanity, sanity.