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A very simplistic look at the overall patterns almost a year on from the unusual warmth, Saharan dust and afternoon darkness that was a talking point, I find myself in the garden with the tan being topped up again. To me the lack of any real 'ooomph' to the Atlantic driven agenda has been a theme for over a year now. Various strong HP cells dominating from all points of the compass in that time. AS was the case in March 2018 into April 2018, looking at a set up that took us from deep winter into high summer in the space of 3 weeks, Why would the reverse not be possible now? Given the general state of the NH pattern....

Another Gfs run showing an Arctic blast with snow, ice and frosts towards the end of october..hope the 00z is right!!..Great model watching!

Evening All So my second main post in relation to Autumn / Winter 18. Thus far the initial forecast for this first half of Autumn has been really satisfactory with some notable successes- The Anomaly chart for Sept 1 to the 13th has shown that the jet has been forced off way to the North allowing perpetual Southerlies / SE winds to invade the UK & indeed western Europe- * We have seen notable heat - nearly 80F on 13/10 Oct - * There havent been many 'westerly days' & rainfall has accumulated for some over short sharp bursts as opposed to the usual steady build up. ( Again highlighted in the first post ) * Also whats been a key player & also has close similarities with Summer is the depth of the blocking around the mid lattitudes - Record breaking High Pressure in July over Europe , & September sees record breaking High pressure over Alaska- Sept 1-Sept 15 Global Anomaly This anomaly thats lingered up until the tail of September has been the main reason that W Canada has had the very cold start to the Autumn & also why Siberia has been a little slow to start with snowcover - The ice anomalies & low thermal gradient this year are really allowing for Higher than average pressure to exist in 'situ' even at Northerly Lattitudes - Examples of these powerful highs appearing at high lattitudes started appearing in 2010- Note The december to Remember- The second spell started with a 'super high' What these High pressures create is intense areas of WAA on the western flank & the same with cold on the eastern flank- they also allow for more Northward / southward penetration of the warm/cold So the conditions they bring are deemed 'extreme' for the localities on the recieving end of the advection- Backing up this theory of Low ice / warmer arctic seas > Higher Arctic Amplification > Intense WAA/CAA is the range of the metric of AO which in the past 10 years has gradually been stretched scalewise up & down - This Late Autumn / Winter - seems the perfect platform to deliver more of the same - Exceptional warmth interlinked with some potential for exceptional cold ! There are unlikely to be any over riding negative signals this winter- - Neutral El Nino Signature - Downwelling westerly QBO unlikely to be to adverse to the pattern- With more emphasis on positive links - Weak to possibly 'very' weak stratospheric vortex including a possible early warming event December to weaken the vortex further - Stronger disconnect in terms of tropospheric & stratospheric coupling - again the very shallow gradient weakening the 'westerlies' - Very low solar activity supporting the westerly weakness - 'Super high pressures' migrating Northwards towards the pole creating sharp transitions / modality changes in teleconnection metrics ( AO / NAO / PNA & POL ) these will also create big Stationary patterns of warmth & cold around the mid lattitudes For me the signals are overwhelming & give us a range of solutions for Winter that strongly suggest a below average DJF with a high probability of at least a 1 monthly rolling period ( not to be confused with a recorded CET month ) being below 2c. Higher incidence of Northerly & Easterly outbreaks. I dont rule this out exclusive to DJF - but also with the pattern expected to flip towards the end of October we could see some of this blocking in place throughout November. My eyes have turned to the stratosphere, which has seen a burst of activity lately bringing the zonal wind up above average of about 22 M/S - however the ensemble suite has shown that this may well be the peak for the moment as we drop back towards 20 M/S again in November ( the average being 30-40M/S as we head towards December ) So there we have it- some late Autumn / Early Winter insight - - Big Flips in the AO with some decent negative values arriving - Super High pressures retrograding up towards the arctic Circle generating significant CAA & stationary cold patterns - Possible early warming Late Nov / Early Dec to really take any Westerly sting out of the Jet CIAO for now....

Profiles going forwards that are perfectly aligned both time-wise and synopticaly !! The pv profiles continue to reflect the early doorway to winter exactions-with waa inject putting immense pressure on the 'wanting of formation'-yet non gain of any major purpose. Taking the supposed momentum' into account....one can only see more positive effects as we draw ever further on!... With ridging continuing to punch and prod-into the polar regions at every given angle. Given the availible outs...and the orientation of the meandering azores/mid atlanic HP-and all others factored in....a cold weather fan should be filled with mass optimism...even @this early...yet crucial stage. And just for mid range scope...the ens continue with there take....and the mean continues in its quest to notch down late month...and drag many members with it !!!.. Major interst at the northern hem...and surrounding!!!!

I know we should never wish time away etc, but honestly, hurry up October! I just want to get into winter :-) That said, for the first time since last March (did that really happen!? ) I found myself back looking at the charts today. I have been keeping an eye on the teleconnections over the past few weeks but today is the first time I’d had a good perusal of all the charts, FI and all. Whilst it’s nice to see, it is perhaps not too surprising to see potential building of a mid Atlantic high, come end of month. I think this is quite a probable outcome. A full on Arctic northerly blast may be a bit of a long shot, but has to be a contender. More likely a NNW, snow on the hills and feeling noticeably cold everywhere. I’d take that for an opener to proceedings. Even if it fades into obscurity, I suspect further potential won’t be too far away. Thinking back to most of the past few years and November going into December has seemingly always flattered to deceive. There has been loads of dream Synoptics on offer but ultimately they came to very little. Many this year we will get ‘lucky’? I do think early-mid winter this year could be quite fun.

Could we see a cold spell with a risk of snow before november?...looking at the GEFS 00z..There is potential!

Sea levels flooding islands, NYC under water, total ice free arctic, etc etc etc as catastrophically scaremongered....none of it is anywhere near happening....Or it’s put back decades....yawn BFTP

I have held back but I like the idea. Who remembers the Winter of Discontent ....78/79.....Maybe this will be ‘The Denier Winter’ (allegedly can never happen again)...It is on the table at this early stage....imo. I think there could be a few surprises. BFTP

Not another warm Halloween please!

Looking through the GEFS 6z there are signs we could see an early taste of winter before the end of this month..There are quite a few arctic incursions and near misses showing up (this is just a small sample)..wish we could just fast forward through the boring benign stuff and get to the potential goodies!!..hopefully a loooong winter to come!!☺❄❄❄

Indeed Frosty, there is some good signal from the models for retrogression of our HP yo bring a northerly blast backend of the month. I think this will continue to fruition..and bring the first snows to Scotland and peaks of Northern England..... this to take us into Nov.....Looking forward to that BFTP BFTP

There appears to be a strengthening consensus regarding the upcoming pattern change so my comments from yesterday morning vis the outlook remain penitent. By the end of the short range the subtropical high should be taking more of an interest so calmer and drier weather likely albeit there is still a lot of energy exiting upstream across the Atlantic putting it under pressure. The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight A cloudy start to the day over much of England and Wales and the far north west and the rain in southern parts, that has eased for a while, will pep up again as more pulses run up the waving front which is still in close proximity. Elsewhere not a bad day with some sunshine with maybe the odd shower in the north west of Scotland. During the evening and overnight the heavier rain will cease with just some patchy drizzle as this and the cloud edge north So a relatively mild night in southern and central areas. This cloudy and damp weather will likely persist through the day in much of en gland and Wales although where the cloud breaks, in the south east for example, it will be quite warm But the fronts associated with a deep depression that's swinging north west of Scotland will bring rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and western Scotland by midday and the rain will move south east during the afternoon. Overnight and through Wednesday our old friend the waving front has finally departed north east leaving the fronts associated with the low to continue to struggle south east, Thus patchy rain/drizzle across central parts with cooler and the odd shower in the north west. The pattern over Thursday and Friday really epitomizes my opening comments with a strong jet driving Atlantic systems north east as the ridge builds from the south west over the UK Thus a sunny and dry day on Thursday after a frosty start and much the same on Friday except for the north west where there will be patchy rain and strengthening winds as a frontal system is driven across Scotland, And so on to the NH profile at T120 which is not a million miles from where we came in

A big thank you to everyone on here that sent their best wishes for my wedding yesterday. It was a fantastic weekend, so much fun and very emotional. The weather was gorgeous too! Not so tonight haha

Half way through October. Time to stir.... Interesting reading RJS's comments in the seasonal forecast thread regarding extreme cold in central Canada and likely downstream trough from this event. If this can be given as a base state heading into the start of winter, then exact positioning of the long wave pattern becomes guessable. Note the MetO ENSO forecast As many forecasted several months ago we are heading into a weak Nino winter with consequent pressure applied to subvert sub tropical high pressure belts and therefore the possibility of a more southerly tracking or split jet. GLAAM is in a moderate to strong positive phase and the Nino imprint onto the atmosphere is clear from the GWO state which has been locked into the 5 - 8 orbit for weeks now For the foreseeable therefore a pattern that wont encourage flat westerlies, should instead see a good deal of jet wobble and curve, and an autumn that for now looks to remain fairly blocked. With an eastern US trough likely then the suggestions from a number of posters that a mid atlantic high may develop downstream looks about right to me in the context of the above. That might help to bring about a frosty and foggy passage into November.

I'm liking the day 10 ECM tonight . The high pulling out west allowing quite chilly air in , especially up north and in the east . That would feel like winter . Would love to of seen the day 11 chart .

As the front cleared east this morning: A view to the NW And to the NE And a spring flower round the back of the barn

The above summer forecast verified reasonably well in most cases, the prediction implied a top ten outcome and in fact the summer was around 3rd to 5th warmest on record depending on which data you used. The CET predictions of 16, 18 and 17 compare with 16.1, 19.1 and 16.6 for an average error of 0.53 C deg, and it has to be kept in mind that August was running close to 17 until around the 23rd with a very cool finish. The overall prediction was closer, with an average error of only 0.27 C (17.0 vs actual of 17.27). It was a dry summer in many parts of southern Britain and southeast Ireland. The magnitude of this drought was probably underplayed in the forecast. As for North America, it certainly did turn into a scorcher of a summer in the west with widespread fires in western Canada in particular. We were dealing with noxious smoke on an epic scale for much of August (although I was away on holiday in clearer skies down south) and the first week of September before the activity finally subsided. The tropical season has not been keeping pace with the forecast although it could still work out fairly close, and Michael alone is worth several ordinary hurricanes I suppose. ... well, I won't make a big deal about this forecast because basically I think almost everyone expected this sort of summer after the spring blocking, so it is now on to the winter of 2018-19 for the next instalment ... Long-Range Outlook for Winter 2018-19 As always, my forecast is based on a blend of traditional concepts and exclusive research into "index values" on the assumption that at least some variability in the climate can be linked to variations in the solar system magnetic field (a complex response to relatively small changes in solar wind output and effects on the earth's linked atmosphere and magnetosphere). It is looking quite cold compared to normal for Britain and Ireland, in particular later December and parts of January. However, this appears to be dependent on a strong jet stream either shifting far enough south or relaxing for periods of 1-2 weeks, and the intervals between the cold spells could be quite stormy at times when the jet stream is roaring at full capacity. The research index values in particular go far colder than I have seen them for the past several winters, indicating many analogue cases that were very cold winters. Looking through the analogues, I find that periods around late December into early January, and mid to late January, were favoured for the coldest weather. This is also favoured by assumptions made about lunar modulation of the pattern, which is how I have come to see the lunar influence, not as a driver so much as a shaper of larger signals from the other players at work. Another consideration is that we are well into a prolonged solar downturn and so there's nothing in the larger solar-weather paradigm to contradict the notion of this being a colder than average winter. We are in a similar position to the period 1819 to 1823 which had numerous cold winters but it's not a guarantee by itself to be in this sort of regime. I've seen some discussion saying that perhaps this won't be the widely expected "big one" and perhaps we'll need to wait another winter or two, but I have no way of choosing which one is the big one from the coarse assumptions that one is forced to make using only a solar-weather paradigm. The past summer season in the central Canadian arctic was exceptionally cold. Resolute for example had no month warmer than the 1.9 average in July, and that is the lowest such statistic on record in recent times (the record began in 1948). This has been followed up by a large-scale southward movement of a cold anomaly over central Canada that has people commenting that winter already began in the prairies in early September, with snow often on the ground. This anomaly is almost bound to be followed up by a persistent trough around 90 to 100 W longitude. That in turn would favour west Atlantic blocking and a downstream trough between 10 and 30 W. Although that's a little west of the "sweet spot" for a cold winter in Britain and Ireland, I feel that it may be a high amplitude pattern that will induce Scandinavian blocking highs, and cold outflow from those despite fairly high 500-mb heights in western Europe at times. And the pattern could oscillate east-west enough to place the trough over Britain and Ireland at times. So I am predicting a notably cold winter but with high variability possible leading to alternating spells of wintry cold and stormy fast flow situations. Another factor that may prove significant is that energy levels will be highly concentrated near the full and new moons this winter, perhaps more so than has been the case in most recent winters. I expect this to translate into alternating periods of very unsettled, stormy weather around those lunar dates, and relatively long settled intervals between them. The settled intervals are likely to be the times when blocking will deliver the colder air masses from an easterly or northeasterly source. But there may be some tendency for the disturbed intervals to remain cold and turn more northerly. This could add up to considerably more snowfall in the heart of winter than we've seen for quite a few seasons, in contrast to last winter's concentration of snowfall near the very end of the winter season (27 Feb to 2 March was very snowy in some regions). I am aware that this represents a high risk forecast, especially given the tendency of recent winters to resist opportunities to establish potent blocking. So it won't absolutely surprise me if the result is some kind of weaker compromise where some cold and some snowfall develop but longer intervals remain relatively mild. I don't foresee a really mild winter being likely given these background conditions, and I do have concerns that the volatility may produce some exceptionally stormy intervals. This pattern may persist well into late winter and March may not see a lot of change from it, except that by then the energy level considerations will be more evenly distributed into four peaks rather than two per lunation. That separation during February may lead to a peak in snowfall since the peaks will be somewhat less supported and that could be reflected in a more persistent blocking pattern. As to the dates of the stormy episodes, those appear most likely to fall around 19-22 December, 3-6 January, and 16-20 January, and there could be heavy rainfalls in the south during some of those intervals as colder regimes are pushed back to the north at least temporarily, but as time goes on the chances for snowstorms likely increases with each of these windows, then towards the end of January it may be more of a sea-effect snowfall opportunity with the storm track pushed much further south into Iberia and the Mediterranean. During the anticyclonic intervals that are likely to peak between those stormy intervals, we could see some unusually low temperatures especially if snow cover has been established towards the transition from stormy to settled weather. In the run up to the winter, I would expect quite frequent mild and unsettled patterns with the colder synoptics taking their time to appear, possibly in muted form around mid to late November so that perhaps Scotland will get the first round of this predicted wintry regime. In North America, I am expecting a winter dominated by intense cold over central regions, often extending out to both coasts, and a generally depressed jet stream but with weak El Nino tendencies likely to lead to frequent and heavy snowfall inland from the west coast over the Rockies about as far south as northern New Mexico. Parts of eastern Canada may be unusually mild with the storm track tending to run north from near Cape Cod into eastern Quebec province. I feel like this may be a very rough sketch of a winter that may contain some really unusual synoptics and bring conditions that are rarely seen at some times, and those are difficult to anticipate so would just caution that various extremes may be tested at times. I don't think it will be a dull or boring weather pattern for most of the winter, in any case. For verification, I expect the average temperatures to run as much as 1.5 to 2 degrees below recent normals and for this winter to be one of the colder ones in the past thirty or even fifty, and colder even than the longer-term averages which run almost a degree below modern 30-year averages. I somehow doubt that it could be an all-time cold contender to match the summer because that seems to be very difficult to achieve with the ice margins being as far north as they have set up in the North Atlantic in modern times. But as we saw in December 2010, anything is still possible and there could be some intervals of record breaking cold.

Further to my post last thusday evening about the hp cell developing in the Atlantic,the latest from the cpc 6-10 and 8-14 day 500mb anomoly charts shows even stronger ridging in that area,it will be interesting to see how amplified this ridge gets nearer the time and for the first time this season we see a forecasted neg NAO/AO>-2/-3 and the gefs/ecm ens(although the ecm doesn't go as far as the gefs),the gfs op clearly a mild outlier and the control clearly mild outlier so in summery we will have a few fine days to come with the Azures high nudging in from the SW then migrate west a little to allow a cooler west to northwestly but a NNW/N direction cannot be ruled out,it all depends on how far the hp cell retrogresses west,the gfs has been toying around for the last few days if not a bit longer with a possible northerly at or just before the end of October,interesting times are starting early this year.

In what way, it's hardly in dispute that practically none of the warming predictions of doom have happened. But every time there' any mildly inconvenient weather event the media bandwagon blames it on climate change, because the indoctrination has been going on for a quarter century now.

As opposed to ignoring warming altogether and basing everything on solar cycles? I've never read such utter rubbish in this section as the last few pages in here. It's about time people started posting to the rules of the climate area and backing up their claims with actual scientific evidence rather than waffle. As was asked a few pages back, just what would those on the other side of the argument need to see before they changed their minds? No-one has answered that one yet I see.

Ed.. The good news is that each level of the IPCC report has decreased the lower level of warming. The early reports quoted around 2.8C - 3.0C. We now see them discussing 1.5C. Not much difference.? Ed - I am no polymath, I just use my own judgement when looking at data. The situation is not 97% resolved, as I have heard you repeat. AGW is a fact, how it impacts the world's climate is not. The following are just a few points I could raise (and there are others). They do not require a detailed knowledge of climate science in order to be able to understand that their effects will have major impact in these models. Also please be aware that these models are just as complicated compared to the current weather forecast models. You are fully aware of the small differences necessary for a big change in them. I promised you an example of just one unknown that they are using parameters to define. It concerns the Arctic Sea Ice extent, and the time it becomes blue water.. We all know that this affects the albedo of the Arctic. This is fed into the GCM's as either actual data,. and then they use maths to - a) identify the trend. b) forecast the future Now my question is, how accurate and what method do they use and how accurate can that be? It causes a large amount of implicit error and accuracy of the final forecast output. I show you some from 3 years ago, compared to today's new expectations. Watch carefully how the date varies between 2015 and 2024. and the new chart produced after the inclusion of the latest data with what would appear to be realistic statistical measurements of this decline.The 'new' forecast has moved out from 2032 to 2036. What on earth would the parameter be that feeds the resultant calculations through to the next appropriate GCM Module?. A whole range of numbers could (and I believe should) be produced dependent upon the statistical model chosen. However - of note is that the dates have lengthened. Do you really believe that the above would leave the resultant forecast result unaffected? Yet another well known area which is covered in detail in the report is that of clouds and water vapor. Both high level and low level clouds are treated individually as the have been found to have different (opposite) affects in terms of their heat reflection and retention. Have they researched this accurately enough to be able to get it right?. I very much doubt it as the scientists are only just starting to look at them, in any detail. Clouds can be found at any level. Another case for generalisation and yet more 'Parameterisation'. I think so, according to Chapter 9. The height of the cloud has major impacts on the temperature at the surface, and on the rate of heat transfer in the stratosphere. It also ignores any high level compounds in the stratosphere which may or may not be 'triggered' during different types of forcing from our sun's cycles. Yet another area is that of 'Aerosols' . These are not understood at all. They are explained to be items such as soot, output from Volcanos, and the like, and other unknown substances which appear in the atmosphere. They have no real idea of what will happen to these levels in the future. They have used past history to decide on these parameters (by standardisation). They are used as a 'buffer' to be used to try and make the output look something like the history. As soon as this 'bucket' looks reasonable then they assume they have correctly standardized the models, But what happens if the changes are associated with another natural factor (such as the AMO), which has not yet been sufficiently researched to add it into the models. Quite possible as the overall affect of the AMO is neutral over its full cycle. How have the models handled the oceanic effects such as the PDO and the major ENSO oscillations? Everyone knows they affect the earth's temperature. The latest models I have seen were adding in a fixed gain or loss of about 0.3C every 10 or 15 years. This is parameterisation in the extreme!. All the above (and there are many more) were picked up by reading Chapter 9, and by reading other new scientific literature. I can tell you that trying to digitise the above accurately, would be an extremely lucky guess if they have it correct. It also leaves much room for adjustment to personal preferences. As I say, for now do not treat them as 'Gospel'. MIA .

Yes, a good dose of rain over weekend. Ground rather wet underfoot now, time to say hello to autumn and then winter. About time. Summer hanging on nearby though.

It is, as can be seen by the gradient of the green line here: ] http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/SC24.html Good luck to anyone predicting how short or long this minimum will be.

Another Gfs run showing a cold shot during late october, I'm starting to think this could happen!.. at this range it's all about the trend, the severity and longevity (should it happen) won't be known for a while but obviously, something potent similar to the 0z run would suit me fine!

A nice bright sunrise this morning, but sky from around 08.15 covered by a thin stratus layer, no wind, temp 2C and evidence of a grass frost overnight.

Surmising that that signal for the ridge would hold into week 3, then it fits perfectly with the EC32.

It is an anomoly though Feb and it shows a slight retrogression west,maybe in a few days it might show that,let's see but it is a strong anomoly.

EC32 has a mid Atlantic ridge and a trough just to the east of us in week 3 (or at least a strong enough anomaly to believe that's what the signal is), and as strong a blocking signal to the North / North East as I can ever remember at week 4. lets hope that week 3 pattern can colden the continent in week 3 enough to then smash the floodgates open in week 4. The GFS(P) shows a similar evolution but obviously much quicker.

Unfortunately, some seem to be muddling what's printed in the media with scientific reports and evidence. To be honest though, in some cases, it's hard to tell if that's a genuine misunderstanding or willfully using whatever supposed 'evidence' is available to try to make one point or another. The simple facts do remain though, the vast majority of the climate science community is in agreement on this subject. So those who want to disagree really need to find a bit more than just opinion or tenuous, faintly ridiculous stabs at providing 'evidence' such as saying that because media stories about agw have been wrong in the past, then so must all of the science be too. I'm all for debate, in fact I'd like to see a more open debate in here because it at least gives those with an interest in the science to explain it, discuss it and learn more about it. But not to the extent where it's a total free for all with nothing more than opinion pulled out of thin air, or random unscientific 'evidence' provided as fact. The onus needs to be on those with differing views to provide considered reasoning, hopefully backed up with evidence from legitimate sources so it can be discussed as such.

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean at T+240 hours the high is centred well to the west which to me would open the door to something considerably colder and more unsettled from either the NW or N so a very early taste of winter could be on the way towards the end of the month..☺

It’s been 10-12 years for decades.....seriously questionable. BFTP

564 line clipping the south coast and nearly into November? Why not considering how this summer has gone. In all likelihood a huge warm outlier.

All that, and still you've nothing useful to say...I'd be more surprised if expectations didn't change with time.

Just when I've been talking up the chances of an end of october Northerly based on recent gfs runs..the 12z gives us a southerly instead!

According to some weather models, we could bypass autumn and go straight into winter come 27th October, with snow. Question is, will it be delayed as always and turn up on the 27th of March and last 12 hours.

Incredible really, especially as forecasts earlier in the weekend had the SE in the damp,colder and drizzly conditions from today onward.The uncertain movement of the Portugese tropical storm has certainly played a part in 'buckling' the front last night and sending it packing West again. Clear blue skies on the Sussex coast and 21c right now.Just like high summer.

so looks like turning rather cold by end of month.about time too.

Certainly the ensembles and models didn't pick this up too well... Cluster chart for sunday: 5 days ago no real indication of any height rises into the weekend, let alone strong ones!

So picking up on this possible switch to colder conditions at the end of the month. A couple of days ago, this switch was advertised as due between 22nd October and 27th October, with heights retreating west and troughing becoming established to the NE. If we look at today's clusters for the 25th October: we see that low heights to the east is still on, but heights to the west look a bit closer to the UK. However, by the 27th: the general trend of heights withdrawing west is still there. And by the end of the month: heights well out of the way, troughing to the NE = lots of possibilities for a NWly or Nly input as November begins. So the cool-down still showing on the ensembles - but - slightly delayed. The "delay" word is a worry for early-season coldies, because a "delayed" pattern change can either mean exactly that, or it sometimes means a general misreading of the situation by the models, and in fact the 25th October chart could be repeated once again. Time will tell!

not so sure, I understood that this was a less active cycle than those of the recent past anyway? as it's apparently atypical, maybe it's descent to true minimum is also atypical, it's still descending more rapidly than previous cycles have done and the jury's out as to how active SC 25 will be... Will be a good watch anyway!

13.3 to the 14th 1.6 above the 61 to 90 average 1.5 above the 81 to 10 average  __________________________________ Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

Saturday was windy for most but far from autumnal- even when it was raining here in the morning it still felt warm and humid and almost tropical. 22C at Birmingham Airport as well which is certainly not a typical autumn temp. Friday was also in the high teens at least for most of England.

BBC app thingy has us down for a very sunny 23C, tomorrow...How many more 'one more days' are we going to squeeze out, before the descent into cold, wet and windy autumn cack takes over?

Yep, the same here in Surbiton. We had a grey wet day in central London turning up all bedraggled for pubs and restaurants, but it's very heavy indeed tonight. I do like to listen to falling rain to drop off to sleep but don't relish the dog walk in the park tomorrow.

I totally agree with this.

Yes, and if you look at the JMA 12z at just T192, this may be quite an extreme run, but entirely possible at this range: I would find it very fitting if 2018, the year with no spring, was also the year with no Autumn,and whilst acknowledging that this couldn't happen at current mid season because of the warmth of the continent, I still think a sudden flip to cold is very possible, I think we'll have to wait until November though. Maybe northern folks might get a taste earlier, I guess. Very interesting times ahead for sure.

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is strongly influenced by high pressure / ridging so predominantly fine weather but if the high drifts far enough west into the atlantic it would open the door to something colder and more unsettled..possibly even wintry from the NW or N towards the end of october.

Yarmy.. A valid post. I think you must realise that what you are suggesting I should do is impossible to achieve. (to quantitively/ qualitatively give you an answer to how much currently is natural warming) and how much is CO2 induced. The two things are intertwined. Chapter 9 of the IPCC report gives many of the unknowns that need to be addressed before this can be achieved. How many people on here have actually looked at Chapter 9 of the IPCC report? Have you? How many people have just read the political overview? As per your understanding of where the earth stands today. My understanding is that we are in a gap between 2 ice ages, and the Sun's cycles are relevant. Certainly the next ice is imminent, but it may be 1K to 5K years away. The Milankovitch Cycles certainly dictate that we should be cooling. But not yet at the time when we would expect that it would overpower any other warming trends. We know that the rhythms of the earth have always never allowed a straight line signal to take control, until it becomes well established.. How do you explain the warmings of the 3rd century BC (Greeks), the Roman warming and the Middle age warming periods? As far as I am aware they were not impacted by CO2. Also how does one explain the little Ice Age, within the modern AGW theories? All the above occurred whilst the Milankovitch Cycle was starting in the down swing. I feel that we need to understand and define more certainly many of the climate effecting factors discussed in Chapter 9, before we (I?) can feel comfortable with the forecast warming currently being accepted as the normal by many believers. MIA

At 18.1C, yesterday is provisionally the latest date to achieve a daily mean CET of 18C or higher. The previous record was 19.0C on the 6th of October, recorded in 1921. That year had a remarkable late season warm spell, averaging 17.5C in the 8 days from the 4th to 11th (17.1C, 17.7C, 19.0C, 16.9C, 17.1C, 17.0C, 17.8C, 17.4C) .

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054022/pdf Numerous studies have suggested an impact of the 11 year solar cycle on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with an increased tendency for positive (negative) NAO signals to occur at maxima (minima) of the solar cycle. Climate models have successfully reproduced this solar cycle modulation of the NAO, although the magnitude of the effect is often considerably weaker than implied by observations. A leading candidate for the mechanism of solar influence is via the impact of ultraviolet radiation variability on heating rates in the tropical upper stratosphere, and consequently on the meridional temperature gradient and zonal winds. Model simulations show a zonal mean wind anomaly that migrates polewards and downwards through wave–mean flow interaction. On reaching the troposphere this produces a response similar to the winter NAO. Recent analyses of observations have shown that solar cycle–NAO link becomes clearer approximately three years after solar maximum and minimum. Previous modelling studies have been unable to reproduce a lagged response of the observed magnitude. In this study, the impact of solar cycle on the NAO is investigated using an atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model. Simulations that include climate forcings are performed over the period 1960–2009 for two solar forcing scenarios: constant solar irradiance, and time-varying solar irradiance. We show that the model produces significant NAO responses peaking several years after extrema of the solar cycle, persisting even when the solar forcing becomes neutral. This confirms suggestions of a further component to the solar influence on the NAO beyond direct atmospheric heating and its dynamical response. Analysis of simulated upper ocean temperature anomalies confirms that the North Atlantic Ocean provides the memory of the solar forcing required to produce the lagged NAO response. These results have implications for improving skill in decadal predictions of the European and North American winter climate. An important graphic: Composites of upper stratospheric zonal mean temperature (dashed red line) and DJF NAO-index (black line) as a function of lag with respect to solar maximum minus solar minimum. The upper stratospheric temperature is calculated as the annual average of the region bounded by 0.5–5 hPa (approximately 40–55 km), and 30 °S–30 °N. The NAO-index is defined as the DJF surface pressure difference between the Azores and Iceland. The points where the NAO-index is significant at the 95% level are highlighted with squares.