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Let's hope the Gfs is right about an Arctic blast at the end of October and then it will be Hats on..and scarf..and gloves!

Hope we see many more charts like these in the coming days, weeks and months!..we've had more than enough benign warmth..time we had some cold!

The above summer forecast verified reasonably well in most cases, the prediction implied a top ten outcome and in fact the summer was around 3rd to 5th warmest on record depending on which data you used. The CET predictions of 16, 18 and 17 compare with 16.1, 19.1 and 16.6 for an average error of 0.53 C deg, and it has to be kept in mind that August was running close to 17 until around the 23rd with a very cool finish. The overall prediction was closer, with an average error of only 0.27 C (17.0 vs actual of 17.27). It was a dry summer in many parts of southern Britain and southeast Ireland. The magnitude of this drought was probably underplayed in the forecast. As for North America, it certainly did turn into a scorcher of a summer in the west with widespread fires in western Canada in particular. We were dealing with noxious smoke on an epic scale for much of August (although I was away on holiday in clearer skies down south) and the first week of September before the activity finally subsided. The tropical season has not been keeping pace with the forecast although it could still work out fairly close, and Michael alone is worth several ordinary hurricanes I suppose. ... well, I won't make a big deal about this forecast because basically I think almost everyone expected this sort of summer after the spring blocking, so it is now on to the winter of 2018-19 for the next instalment ... Long-Range Outlook for Winter 2018-19 As always, my forecast is based on a blend of traditional concepts and exclusive research into "index values" on the assumption that at least some variability in the climate can be linked to variations in the solar system magnetic field (a complex response to relatively small changes in solar wind output and effects on the earth's linked atmosphere and magnetosphere). It is looking quite cold compared to normal for Britain and Ireland, in particular later December and parts of January. However, this appears to be dependent on a strong jet stream either shifting far enough south or relaxing for periods of 1-2 weeks, and the intervals between the cold spells could be quite stormy at times when the jet stream is roaring at full capacity. The research index values in particular go far colder than I have seen them for the past several winters, indicating many analogue cases that were very cold winters. Looking through the analogues, I find that periods around late December into early January, and mid to late January, were favoured for the coldest weather. This is also favoured by assumptions made about lunar modulation of the pattern, which is how I have come to see the lunar influence, not as a driver so much as a shaper of larger signals from the other players at work. Another consideration is that we are well into a prolonged solar downturn and so there's nothing in the larger solar-weather paradigm to contradict the notion of this being a colder than average winter. We are in a similar position to the period 1819 to 1823 which had numerous cold winters but it's not a guarantee by itself to be in this sort of regime. I've seen some discussion saying that perhaps this won't be the widely expected "big one" and perhaps we'll need to wait another winter or two, but I have no way of choosing which one is the big one from the coarse assumptions that one is forced to make using only a solar-weather paradigm. The past summer season in the central Canadian arctic was exceptionally cold. Resolute for example had no month warmer than the 1.9 average in July, and that is the lowest such statistic on record in recent times (the record began in 1948). This has been followed up by a large-scale southward movement of a cold anomaly over central Canada that has people commenting that winter already began in the prairies in early September, with snow often on the ground. This anomaly is almost bound to be followed up by a persistent trough around 90 to 100 W longitude. That in turn would favour west Atlantic blocking and a downstream trough between 10 and 30 W. Although that's a little west of the "sweet spot" for a cold winter in Britain and Ireland, I feel that it may be a high amplitude pattern that will induce Scandinavian blocking highs, and cold outflow from those despite fairly high 500-mb heights in western Europe at times. And the pattern could oscillate east-west enough to place the trough over Britain and Ireland at times. So I am predicting a notably cold winter but with high variability possible leading to alternating spells of wintry cold and stormy fast flow situations. Another factor that may prove significant is that energy levels will be highly concentrated near the full and new moons this winter, perhaps more so than has been the case in most recent winters. I expect this to translate into alternating periods of very unsettled, stormy weather around those lunar dates, and relatively long settled intervals between them. The settled intervals are likely to be the times when blocking will deliver the colder air masses from an easterly or northeasterly source. But there may be some tendency for the disturbed intervals to remain cold and turn more northerly. This could add up to considerably more snowfall in the heart of winter than we've seen for quite a few seasons, in contrast to last winter's concentration of snowfall near the very end of the winter season (27 Feb to 2 March was very snowy in some regions). I am aware that this represents a high risk forecast, especially given the tendency of recent winters to resist opportunities to establish potent blocking. So it won't absolutely surprise me if the result is some kind of weaker compromise where some cold and some snowfall develop but longer intervals remain relatively mild. I don't foresee a really mild winter being likely given these background conditions, and I do have concerns that the volatility may produce some exceptionally stormy intervals. This pattern may persist well into late winter and March may not see a lot of change from it, except that by then the energy level considerations will be more evenly distributed into four peaks rather than two per lunation. That separation during February may lead to a peak in snowfall since the peaks will be somewhat less supported and that could be reflected in a more persistent blocking pattern. As to the dates of the stormy episodes, those appear most likely to fall around 19-22 December, 3-6 January, and 16-20 January, and there could be heavy rainfalls in the south during some of those intervals as colder regimes are pushed back to the north at least temporarily, but as time goes on the chances for snowstorms likely increases with each of these windows, then towards the end of January it may be more of a sea-effect snowfall opportunity with the storm track pushed much further south into Iberia and the Mediterranean. During the anticyclonic intervals that are likely to peak between those stormy intervals, we could see some unusually low temperatures especially if snow cover has been established towards the transition from stormy to settled weather. In the run up to the winter, I would expect quite frequent mild and unsettled patterns with the colder synoptics taking their time to appear, possibly in muted form around mid to late November so that perhaps Scotland will get the first round of this predicted wintry regime. In North America, I am expecting a winter dominated by intense cold over central regions, often extending out to both coasts, and a generally depressed jet stream but with weak El Nino tendencies likely to lead to frequent and heavy snowfall inland from the west coast over the Rockies about as far south as northern New Mexico. Parts of eastern Canada may be unusually mild with the storm track tending to run north from near Cape Cod into eastern Quebec province. I feel like this may be a very rough sketch of a winter that may contain some really unusual synoptics and bring conditions that are rarely seen at some times, and those are difficult to anticipate so would just caution that various extremes may be tested at times. I don't think it will be a dull or boring weather pattern for most of the winter, in any case. For verification, I expect the average temperatures to run as much as 1.5 to 2 degrees below recent normals and for this winter to be one of the colder ones in the past thirty or even fifty, and colder even than the longer-term averages which run almost a degree below modern 30-year averages. I somehow doubt that it could be an all-time cold contender to match the summer because that seems to be very difficult to achieve with the ice margins being as far north as they have set up in the North Atlantic in modern times. But as we saw in December 2010, anything is still possible and there could be some intervals of record breaking cold.

Autumn begining to tighten its grip... The ens clearly of indication to a more classic mobile...@time PM score...highlighted via the global snaps! Also things @the pole are of interest...as the vortex has issue with formation and stick @its home bay-massing @ north-western most arctic foundation!!.. The mid latts are on wind down...and the larger n-hem views are promising early on. And the momentumn-regarding probable block formats are also nicely positioned atm.... Looking forwards to the next fortnight...as winter slowly gains in evolution....and output starts its seasonal decipher....proper !!!

Yes, and if you look at the JMA 12z at just T192, this may be quite an extreme run, but entirely possible at this range: I would find it very fitting if 2018, the year with no spring, was also the year with no Autumn,and whilst acknowledging that this couldn't happen at current mid season because of the warmth of the continent, I still think a sudden flip to cold is very possible, I think we'll have to wait until November though. Maybe northern folks might get a taste earlier, I guess. Very interesting times ahead for sure.

Because on some GEFS members there is heights touching nearly as low as 520dam in Northern areas with SLP over 1000mb.

Its worth noting that the min temp of 18.8C this morning didn't only beat the previous October record by a whole 1.9C, but it's actually the third warmest minima of any month here in the last 38 years. The other two days with warmer minima of 18.9C and 19.1C both came in July this year! It's still 19.7C out there now aswell.

I know we normally look forward on here, but I just want to give a shout-out to the GFS. It's often mocked in here, but it pretty much nailed the warmth of this week from way out. Virtually every single one of its runs since T336 had this period in the low to mid 20s. Hats off!

There was snow in SE England..among plenty of other places in late october 2008...if you were referring to my post (s) all i'm saying is the Gfs has been indicating a cold shot from the arctic around the last few days of october on and off for a while now and the GEFS 6z mean supports it too..following all the record warmth this autumn so far, I think it would be very nice for coldies to get a very early taste of winter!☺

The GEFS 6z mean clearly shows this, really strong support currently for a cold plunge from a polar / arctic maritime source towards the end of october..looking at the postage stamps..some snow too, especially for the north...maybe some wintry weather before november could be ours!!❄❄

lots of cold GEFS members from a N or NW direction.

Ed... Having spent a lifetime solving problems such as this, I know what is required to resolve these sorts of computing problems. Do you? To me it indicates that the 'climate modelling' has a long way to go before it can be regarded as accurate enough for use as a long-term forecast vehicle. Just try reading Chapter 9 of the above report. (this applies to BFTV also). It gives a strong indication as to the work which is still unknown an which is required to be performed. I would say that the modelling of climate is now roughly where the modelling of day to day forecasting was in the early to mid 1990's. To get an idea of the error still implicit in these models, just look at the variations produced (even in todays forecast charts) as demonstrated by the ensemble sets by just changing slightly an initial starting condition. To even believe that the forecast for 2100 can be even close to be correct is, since as you say it is a question of clairvoyance. MIA

After the last couple of days the outlook is for a drier and calmer period of weather, albeit still changeable, and with temps cooling a tad. This is indicative of a pattern change that has been suggested for a while which is essentially losing the block to the east and thus with a ‘flatter’ flow across the Atlantic but this modified by the subtropical high playing a more influential role. Back to the surface chart for midnight and the Albermarle and Castor Bay soundings which illustrate the different airmasses and perhaps a sign of things to come. The front(s) are very adjacent to the former but the latter is behind them With the fronts running down the country it's been pretty cloudy over much of England and Wales with the south east remaining quite muggy, albeit much of the heavy rain has ceased. but the next pulse of rain duly arrived in the south west in the early hours and will track north east during the day but becoming very light and patchy as it also moves very slowly east. Much cooler in the south east, apart from the extreme tip, under the cloud. Of course it's too simplistic to think that the front will now clear to the east. It is still quite active and stretching from north Norway to north Africa and another wave forms over France which initiates another pulse of rain into central southern England during the early hours of Monday This patchy rain will duly track north and effect much of central and northern England and even Wales through Monday whilst the west/north west will have much brighter weather and even in the far south east where the cloud clears it will be quite warm again Overnight and through Tuesday the patch rain dissipates as the front weakens and it becomes quite warm, particularly in the south east, but the next quite intense Atlantic low is swinging north west of Scotland and the associated fronts will bring strong winds and rain to N. Ireland and the north west. By Wednesday the low is NE of Iceland and the front has struggled south east introducing cooler air into the north west By Thursday the weakening front has just about cleared the south coast as the ridge becomes more influential and the cooler temps are in situ And the NH profile at T120 and perhaps just an indication of where we came in

So an early look at my LRF for winter 2018/19. Before I go into it I want to say I believe a winter to rival a 20th century great will occur within the next 3 winters. Let’s start with why I believe this. Following taken from Spaceweather in relation to sunspot count. 2018 total: 165 days (58%) 2017 total: 104 days (28%) 2016 total: 32 days (9%) 2015 total: 0 days (0%) 2014 total: 1 day (<1%) 2013 total: 0 days (0%) 2012 total: 0 days (0%) 2011 total: 2 days (<1%) 2010 total: 51 days (14%) 2009 total: 260 days (71%) 2008 total: 268 days (73%) 2007 total: 152 days (42%) 2006 total: 70 days (19%) I compare 2018 to 2007 = 11 year cycle going forward. We know the winter 09/10. Potentially we could get an 07/08type winter...but I think we are past that as one can see we have still got 2 1/2 months to go and we are 13 more spotless days already....I think 190 but 200 is not insurmountable. I am also not of opinion of Gavsvid updates that this year ‘could’ be solar minima. 19/20 imo more like it. And if it continues as last minima.....moving on from this year we could be in territory not seen for over 200 years. (Interesting RJS mentions 1819/22) El Niño (weak?) so not unfavourable Will the cold Atlantic to our West be of relevance? As already posted as snippets I think winter starts early. So overall theme I feel prevalence of northern blocking with Scandi Blocking likely to be a player with at times an active jet bringing in LP systems but ultimately failing to upset the rhythm of winter. December - colder than average. I won’t put too much meat on bones yet but after a wintry first half I suspect blocking to be in place approaching Xmas and then an Atlantic trying to push in against a cold block that won’t give way (period of note possible). I say it won’t give way as I anticipate January to continue with the colder than average winter. January - colder than average - 1st 10 days earmarked for potential coldest temps of winter with cold block established over (if anticipated) snowfields are widespread. I think mid and backend of January to be potentially very snowy with LPs attempting to take over the ‘general’ pattern as I think the blocking will be at it’s most vulnerable as we enter February February - Average overall but wet. I think the rhythm eases somewhat and we could see winter wane. There is a possibility that jetstream holds on southerly track and wintry conditions elongate but Atlantic vulnerability I’ll call it. A winter to match a 20th century great over next 3 winters?...means I am saying it could be this one. For sure imo we have entered a period going forward where we could be in the game for some serious synoptic patterns. Serious cold and long is still very achievable and imo going to become ever more achievable. As always, with blocking if in wrong place then is a blow out......and Greece etc are locked into an ice age and we are distinctly average, bland even a touch mild....but better to have prevalent northern blocking to put us in the game for cold. I’ll add more with what I identify as ‘periods of potential most impact’ in Nov..... BFTP

Looking through the GEFS 12z postage stamps..some of them look on the wintry side with a risk of frosts / ice and snow towards the end of october..this would be very good news to my fellow coldies!

With a 552 DM line straddling half way up the country I am not sure why, away from Scottish mountains quite such a lot seems to be suggested by one or two posters? Lots of fun for the coldies of course to be looking way ahead but it is very early for any real chance away from the far north and Scottish mountains. Just my view, open to question of course!

BFTV... My post was not about who believes what in this debate, it is trying to establish the truth as to where we actually stand with regard to the current status of climate science. I am (still) a scientist. Not a person who is trying to convert others. Your post is one of 'I do not want to learn anything' that may affect my views. If you have read my post I have told you to read the whole of Chapter 9. (not the whole report!). I even gave you a quote to which section of the report Section 9.1.3.1 to find the data. It even gives you a table in which to find the data. Do you really want me to spell it all out for you? My reply above gave you exactly what you requested. The data I refer to is all in this section of the report (Chapter 9). Can I ask if you have ever read more than just the political overview? That is what the (what you call the) 'establishment', want you to believe. To find out where we actually stand today in this regard, you must burrow down into what the 'techies' are saying. This is where you can get more of an idea as to where we actually stand with regard to climate science forecasting. Believe me, we are a long way from having an accurate idea. I am hoping that the next report (IPCC V6, due to 2021) will have resolved some of the issues that are raised in this Chapter of the report. MIA

13.4 to the 13th 1.6 above the 61 to 90 average 1.5 above the 81 to 10 average  __________________________________ Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

As @tight isobar has shown in the above post and quite a few projections ( below chart ) now showing a colder phase by the last days of this month. Of course in forecast terms still a long way off but a interesting update this morning received for resort planners from our portal service have already given a fairly strong signal to expect summer to winter condition by the end of the month. Will keep you updated after tomorrows chat to obtain further thoughts from a foreign field. C

Recording 22c last night in SE London at 2300!

Fifth October this decade that has broken a temperature date record. 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2018 have broken a date maximum record. 2012 broke a date minimum record.

Leaving cloud cuckoo land to one side for a moment, the ECM 12z actually has some pleasant mid-Autumn weather, here with high pressure very much in charge at T144, with warm air advected towards the UK: Obviously confidence reduces later on, but the high pressure dominance remains with the high drifting further west, but still warm air for the south at T240: Looks we'll get to the last week of October with benign weather with above average temperatures for much of the UK.

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a colder and unsettled late october with a NW'ly / N'ly airflow so there could be a wintry flavour to our weather before november!☺

The coldie in me is really hoping for a very cold shot at the end of october and the Gfs 12z operational has a go but doesn't quite deliver on this run but the general trend is still encouraging if it's colder more seasonal weather you're looking for now.☺

So now the GFS is just toying with us, the 0Z going for the undercut right at the end of the run. The "snow row" on the GFS Ensembles diagrams now showing a 5-10% chance of snow for my location from 27th onwards. Way way out in FI I know but baby steps.

Yes agree completely GFS has been showing this for ages I remember commenting that not much had to change on GFS output to produce something not dissimilar to Oct 2011, and that was many days ago, and it broadly has, later in month; no records broken to my knowledge but it's come close. Where now? GFS 18z shows the settled weather back and pretty warm uppers as far as T168: One final taste of warmth?

Will let you off this time. (afterall it’s not like the thread got completely derailed or anything). For the sake of it, just a quick look at the 8 to 14 day 500mb mean chart from the NOAA and it seems to suggest heights building in the Atlantic with a mean West-North-West upper flow over the U.K. Could do with more amplification of the mean upper flow in the Atlantic along with the positive anomalies backing slightly further West to increase confidence of some colder, more unsettled, conditions from the North. But since it’s an average of days 8 to 14, don’t think it would be totally unfeasible for a day or two of chillier (and perhaps more cyclonic) conditions to come from more of a direct North-Westerly or Northerly direction. Especially for Northern areas of the U.K.

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is strongly influenced by high pressure / ridging so predominantly fine weather but if the high drifts far enough west into the atlantic it would open the door to something colder and more unsettled..possibly even wintry from the NW or N towards the end of october.

It was a joke! anyway the ECM is none to shabby, doesn't look like a N'ly would happen, doesn't look quite right to me and the flow would be cut off, however, its not a million miles away and moving towards the GEFS suite solution.

Indeed! Let’s get back on topic please some of you! Tar. Otherwise, you may end up with a flying golf ball heading towards you...

Most of the Ecm 12z for most of the uk looks anticyclonic with some warm days for the time of year but also some cooler / colder days and nights as the position / orientation of the high changes.

Just for fun! Jamstec long range model has been showing this winter being colder than average overall for a few months now...

Defined ridge on the mean in FI now, that would be a respectable chart in January, im not sure how people can interpret it in any other way as a very strong signal for cold, -4c into Scotland on the MEAN at 300+ hours, also daytime max temps on the LONDON ECM graph not getting above 10c on the mean of a 51 member suite in FI.

Upstairs last night was 27c in the house. Awful night sleeps and grumpy hubs. sweating even with fan on. Been raining all day and quite dark. Got beef in slow cooker. Please no more stupid warm nights.

For most the wishbone effect would render any snow unlikely but possible to get a snow shower from that in Aberdeen, Newcastle, Norfolk maybe. At any rate, many of us just want the cold that would acompany.

At 18.1C, yesterday is provisionally the latest date to achieve a daily mean CET of 18C or higher. The previous record was 19.0C on the 6th of October, recorded in 1921. That year had a remarkable late season warm spell, averaging 17.5C in the 8 days from the 4th to 11th (17.1C, 17.7C, 19.0C, 16.9C, 17.1C, 17.0C, 17.8C, 17.4C) .

To everything - turn, turn, turn There is a season - turn, turn, turn And a time to every purpose under heaven A time to be born, a time to die A time to plant, a time to reap Tiz Acer & Ginko time to change...

Wow,can't believe this thread started on the 26th march,once that cold comes in,265 pages will be done in no time,looks like im going to have to water the plants later,that rain is not getting nearer to me at all,dull,mild and grey,beautiful

There appear to be different schools of scepticism about man-made global warming. I'll (very roughly) categorise them as follows: 1. The Earth isn't warming: it's all a hoax. 2. The Earth is warming, but it can all be ascribed to some agent other than increasing concentrations of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (e.g. Solar activity, Ocean cycles, changes in land use, etc). 3. The Earth is warming, and part of that warming is caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, but it's overstated and the rest is down to other agents. 1. might be described as the "Trump air-tight apartment" school, and I'm assuming no-one here actually holds that position. 2. is to ignore the basic physics of radiative transfer and the energy balance of the Earth. 3. I'm supposing is the most widely held sceptic position on here. But if one holds this position, then the onus on them is to demonstrate what contribution is made by those other agents and to what degree. Not in a qualitative arm-waving sense, but in a quantitative sense (as the many contributors to the IPCC report have done). If anyone can do that and it stands up to robust scrutiny, then it will be welcomed by everyone. But that hasn't happened yet. As we stand the Earth is currently in the decreasing tilt phase of the Milankovitch cycle, so we should be in a long-term decreasing trend of temperature, but we aren't so... FWIW, I don't like the term 'denier' so I don't use it. It's clearly meant to evoke comparisons with Holocaust denial, and I think that is unreasonable in this context.

MIA mentioned earlier, a little unexpected regarding today’s temperatures, with a 12c degree in some parts, a drop from yesterday’s 21-22c to just 10c this afternoon here, I’ve even had to put my heating on The week ahead... After getting tomorrow out of the way ️ The rest of the week isn’t too bad at all ️ ️ ️ ️14c to 16c.

Be glad to see the back of this. Warmth is nice when combined with sunshine or thunderstorms. Not nice with the endless cloud, rain, high humidity and gusty winds. Like Autumn for the nice colours and dark evenings but the weather is an unpleasant bore.

Good morning last night on my weather Facebook page I wrote this for Cannock Chase. Good evening, another change tomorrow, dropping very cool. Temperatures today reach 21 c. Tomorrow the temperature will drop through the day to around 10 c by mid afternoon. Looking wet with around 15 mm of total rainfall. Temperature now is 9.2 c and now recorded 12.2 mm of rain and still raining 2.4mm per hr. Sure we will reach the 15mm I predicted. Graph image from my weather Davis Vantage pro plus 2 and WeatherLink

Shame I wanted her to do a few more circles of the Atlantic to claim the record of longest lasting storm. Mostly totally under the radar during her life finally deciding to get some media attention. One of the more interesting hurricanes of the year.

March 2013 was extraordinary, who would have thought it turn out as cold as it did at the start of the month, there wasn't a hint, the CET was 4.9C by the 9th and even taking into the cold just before mid month, you wouldn't have bet on it turn out as sub 3C. I think 9th March-8th April 2013 had a CET of 2.4C, colder than January 1997 The early May Day Bank Holiday was lovely with warm pleasant sunshine. An amazing chart

Yes, these are the position of highs you need for frost and fog to become a serious issue.

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.5C +0.1C above normal. Should drift downwards slightly this week. Rainfall 32.8mm 39.6% of average.

Completely mad temperature, outside now is 21C 8.30 am in the middle of October

Exactly as expected, not a single relevant link (just one to the main body of the IPCC report, which is thousands of pages long!), source or piece of data to support your position. Just a rambling essay on how the establishment are wrong and you are right. I'm certain there are plenty of members that will be enamored by your baseless pontificaions. Suppose that's all that matters, reality can take a back seat!

Possibly, but soon cold afterwards with mid Atlantic high.

Well after the dreadful floods here in Wales it does at least look like improving from tomorrow afternoon. Later on the GFS12z, the high is expected to finally flatten to the east and ends up south of the U.K. although it could open the door to further Atlantic storms (with a large low towards the North Pole so a westerly pattern) they should at least be able to clear the rain through much quicker instead of getting stuck in the same areas for days like Callum has done resulting in less rainfall totals decreasing the risk of flooding somewhat. Stay safe everyone / cadwch yn ddiogel pawb